Am I the only one not overly worried about Covid19?

[Corraleno]

4 minutes ago, Matryoshka said:

Isn't Italy testing widely? 

The most recent figures I can find are from March 2. Number of people tested per million population: S Korea = 2,138, Italy = 386. As of last week Italy had tested 23K people, and they have around 10K confirmed cases, so it certainly seems that they are only testing those who are either sick or had direct contact with someone who was sick, and are therefore missing many, if not most, of the mild cases. 

[Matryoshka]

6 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

The most recent figures I can find are from March 2. Number of people tested per million population: S Korea = 2,138, Italy = 386. As of last week Italy had tested 23K people, and they have around 10K confirmed cases, so it certainly seems that they are only testing those who are either sick or had direct contact with someone who was sick, and are therefore missing many, if not most, of the mild cases. 

What's our rate per million,  I wonder? 350+ million people - how many tests?  Especially if you exclude the cruise ship people, who still account for a huge percentage of total Americans tested, I believe.

[MEmama]

38 minutes ago, Pawz4me said:

Regarding the situation in Italy and thinking it can't or won't happen here --

 

 

Thank you for posting the facts.

 

 

[QueenCat]

The hysteria is killing our economy. Don't look at your 401ks unless you want to cry. Dh will likely have to work a few more years after the hit we took this past week. Things go down much faster than they go back up. History proves that. 

[Pawz4me]

We are ten days from the hospitals getting creamed

Quote

The U.S. is a little more than a week away from a health care crisis related to the new coronavirus, according to the man who once advised President Donald Trump on how to respond to pandemics.

"We are 10 days from the hospitals getting creamed,” Tom Bossert, who was Trump’s homeland security adviser until he was ousted in 2018, told NBC News. Bossert was never replaced, and Trump eliminated the national security council jobs related to disease outbreaks.

In an op-ed in The Washington Post published Monday, Bossert said that unless the U.S. closes schools, halts public gatherings and takes other steps to reduce community transmission, the country is headed for the sort of crisis Italy is now facing, with hospitals overwhelmed by elderly people in need of critical care. 

“Simply put, as evidence of human-to-human transmission becomes clear in a community, officials must pull the trigger on aggressive interventions,” Bossert wrote. “Time matters. Two weeks of delay can mean the difference between success and failure. Public health experts learned this in 1918 when the Spanish flu killed 50 million to 100 million people around the globe. If we fail to take action, we will watch our health-care system be overwhelmed.”

 

[Sneezyone]

5 minutes ago, QueenCat said:

The hysteria is killing our economy. Don't look at your 401ks unless you want to cry. Dh will likely have to work a few more years after the hit we took this past week. Things go down much faster than they go back up. History proves that. 

 

A) Not hysteria. The Saudi move to undercut US and Russian oil producers is meaningful and problematic. B) The impact of this disease once it reaches its peak is profound and real, and C) markets recover, they always do. Anyone close to retirement age with heavy stock exposure in their portfolio is foolish.

Edited March 10, 2020 by Sneezyone

[Corraleno]

19 minutes ago, Matryoshka said:

What's our rate per million,  I wonder? 350+ million people - how many tests?  Especially if you exclude the cruise ship people, who still account for a huge percentage of total Americans tested, I believe.

It's a bit hard to tell since CDC decided to deliberately hide those figures, but an article in The Atlantic yesterday said that based on what they were able to glean from state figures, 4,384 people in the US have been tested so far. We would need to test more then 700,000 people in order to match S Korea's current rate of testing.  

Edited March 10, 2020 by Corraleno

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, Corraleno said:

My point was that an accurate death rate for this virus should be drawn from areas where widespread testing is likely to have picked up most of the cases, versus countries where many, if not most, cases are never counted. The death rate in S Korea is 0.8%, in China outside Wuhan it's 0.7% (and falling) and outside of Hubei it's less than 0.2%. If you only test the people that are seriously ill, then of course the death rate looks much higher. In S Korea, which has been aggressive with testing, they reported that 99% of confirmed cases were mild.

Given how little we are testing in this country, I think the death rate in the US may end up looking like one of the highest in the world — but that doesn't mean COVID-19 would actually be killing a higher percentage of Americans than any other country, it just means we never tested most of the people who had it. I think there would be a lot less panic if people knew that the actual death rate was likely to be less than 1%. 

I hope you’re right because today the death rate in Italy is tracking at 6pc

an Australian epidemiologist in an interview last night very gently said the death rate usually goes up toward the end of an outbreak as cases resolve and “it may not be as low as 3” (percent)

[Bootsie]

38 minutes ago, StellaM said:

 

Governments can mitigate the economic effects through financial stimulus. Australia avoided the GFC because of stimulus.

It is hard to see how much financial stimulus can help in this situation.   The Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, to encourage me to go to the store (when I should be avoiding human contact), to buy items made in China (which haven't been produced.  Or, the lower interest rates are supposed to encourage businesses to invest more in technology and put people to work (but at the same time companies are being encouraged to have their workers stay home.)

 

[Corraleno]

2 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

It is hard to see how much financial stimulus can help in this situation.   The Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, to encourage me to go to the store (when I should be avoiding human contact), to buy items made in China (which haven't been produced.  Or, the lower interest rates are supposed to encourage businesses to invest more in technology and put people to work (but at the same time companies are being encouraged to have their workers stay home.)

Not to mention the effect of widespread lay-offs in a country where health insurance is tied to employment, the safety net is full of holes, and 78% of the population lives paycheck to paycheck. I'm not sure why anyone would think that a situation in which millions of people can't pay their rent or mortgage, can't buy food, can't get to work, and either have no health insurance at all or can't afford the co-pays, is going to protect the elderly and those at higher risk. 

[Sneezyone]

32 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

It is hard to see how much financial stimulus can help in this situation.   The Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, to encourage me to go to the store (when I should be avoiding human contact), to buy items made in China (which haven't been produced.  Or, the lower interest rates are supposed to encourage businesses to invest more in technology and put people to work (but at the same time companies are being encouraged to have their workers stay home.)

 

Fiscal stimulus also means paying people while they are unemployed and cannot work so that when the can work the economy comes roaring back. Payroll tax reductions are useless in this environment even if they’re popular solutions to everything from gunshot wounds to poverty.

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, QueenCat said:

The hysteria is killing our economy. Don't look at your 401ks unless you want to cry. Dh will likely have to work a few more years after the hit we took this past week. Things go down much faster than they go back up. History proves that. 

However if the outbreak becomes significantly worse the effect on the economy is likely to be significantly worse. Taking strong proactive early measures can reduce the size of the outbreak and in the long run the economy will recover faster.  
 

ive seen a chart comparing Wuhan versus Guangdong in China (think I got that right). I can’t find it but basically one started being proactive at around 10 cases versus WuhAn waiting till the 100s.  One ended up with 80,000 cases and a total shutdown whereas the other got 1000 and is going back to work much earlier.  It’s obvious in the long run which is better for the economy.  Short term maybe not.  

[madteaparty]

I’m terrified to express the thought that I’m still not that worried in a “is anyone else not worried” thread. 
I don’t know what’s happening in Italy; my friend in Rome states the population there is 1/3rd older people. I’m sure someone is going to come down on me with the full force of Twitter stats screenshots. I think our population likely far less healthier but no one is talking about that. I’m still not personally freaking out besides making and distributing elderberry syrup. 

[Bootsie]

12 minutes ago, madteaparty said:

I’m terrified to express the thought that I’m still not that worried in a “is anyone else not worried” thread. 
I don’t know what’s happening in Italy; my friend in Rome states the population there is 1/3rd older people. I’m sure someone is going to come down on me with the full force of Twitter stats screenshots. I think our population likely far less healthier but no one is talking about that. I’m still not personally freaking out besides making and distributing elderberry syrup. 

Italy has one of the oldest populations of any country in the world.  The median age of an Italian who has died with coronavirus is 81.  

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, Corraleno said:

The most recent figures I can find are from March 2. Number of people tested per million population: S Korea = 2,138, Italy = 386. As of last week Italy had tested 23K people, and they have around 10K confirmed cases, so it certainly seems that they are only testing those who are either sick or had direct contact with someone who was sick, and are therefore missing many, if not most, of the mild cases. 

Italy are not counting asymptomatic cases either and South Korea are.  That means Italy are more representative of what the results might look like if you actually get sick versus getting the virus.

still doesn’t look good.

[Ausmumof3]

16 minutes ago, madteaparty said:

I’m terrified to express the thought that I’m still not that worried in a “is anyone else not worried” thread. 
I don’t know what’s happening in Italy; my friend in Rome states the population there is 1/3rd older people. I’m sure someone is going to come down on me with the full force of Twitter stats screenshots. I think our population likely far less healthier but no one is talking about that. I’m still not personally freaking out besides making and distributing elderberry syrup. 

I have seen 23 percent over 60

[Corraleno]

Italy ranks 3rd in the world for median age and percentage of the population over 65. The US ranks 61st for median age and 52nd for percentage over 65. The demographics are very different.

[Kassia]

54 minutes ago, madteaparty said:

I’m terrified to express the thought that I’m still not that worried in a “is anyone else not worried” thread. 
I don’t know what’s happening in Italy; my friend in Rome states the population there is 1/3rd older people. I’m sure someone is going to come down on me with the full force of Twitter stats screenshots. I think our population likely far less healthier but no one is talking about that. I’m still not personally freaking out besides making and distributing elderberry syrup. 

 

No reason to be terrified!  

I like seeing balanced conversations.  Makes me feel better reading both sides.  

[Ausmumof3]

23 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Italy ranks 3rd in the world for median age and percentage of the population over 65. The US ranks 61st for median age and 52nd for percentage over 65. The demographics are very different.

My city here in Aus has a fairly aging population.  We could see this hit some regions really hard and others mildly.  Being able to spread the load will be important.  I do worry about the rural areas here with more health problems, often older populations due to young people leaving and poorer health care options.

[Corraleno]

37 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Italy are not counting asymptomatic cases either and South Korea are.  That means Italy are more representative of what the results might look like if you actually get sick versus getting the virus.

still doesn’t look good.

If Italy is only counting the cases where people are already quite sick, and is missing the 80% or more where people are asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms, then their actual death rate is 1.2% or less of those infected, which is not far off from the 0.8% they are seeing in S Korea where they are including all cases. That is my exact point. There is a BIG difference between saying "3-6% of the people who catch this virus are dying" and saying "3-6% of the small fraction of those who both catch the virus AND become seriously ill from it are dying." 

[Ausmumof3]

2 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

If Italy is only counting the cases where people are already quite sick, and is missing the 80% or more where people are asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms, then their actual death rate is 1.2% or less of those infected, which is not far off from the 0.8% they are seeing in S Korea where they are including all cases. That is my exact point. There is a BIG difference between saying "3-6% of the people who catch this virus are dying" and saying "3-6% of the small fraction of those who both catch the virus AND become seriously ill from it are dying." 

I don’t think the rate of asymptomatic cases is that high based on statistics from China.  They said most asymptomatic in first tests developed symptoms within four days.  

[Ausmumof3]

With regard to the distribution of cases, the majority (62%) concern male persons and, as expected, most of them are very old people. The cases among children between 0 and 9 years are very few (0.5%), absolutely 43. In the age group between 10-19 they are 85 (1%), in the one between 20-29 they are 296 (3.5 %), in 30-39 there are 470 (5.6%), in 40-49 there are 891 (10.7%), in 50-59 there are 1,453 (17.4%), in 60-69 1,471 (17.7%), 1,785 (21.4%) in 70-79 and 1,532 (18.4%) over 80 years. As can be seen from the age of 60, over 57% of cases are concentrated. However, mortality is much more shifted towards the higher age groups. Between 40 and 49 years there was only one death (0.3%), which become three between 50 and 59 and thirty-seven between 60 and 69. From 70 to 79 years there were 114 deaths (31.9% ) and above 80 were 202, that is 56.6%.
 

breakdown on the Italy stats from la repubblica run through google translate

With regard to the distribution of cases, the majority (62%) concern male persons and, as expected, most of them are very old people. The cases among children between 0 and 9 years are very few (0.5%), absolutely 43. In the age group between 10-19 they are 85 (1%), in the one between 20-29 they are 296 (3.5 %), in 30-39 there are 470 (5.6%), in 40-49 there are 891 (10.7%), in 50-59 there are 1,453 (17.4%), in 60-69 1,471 (17.7%), 1,785 (21.4%) in 70-79 and 1,532 (18.4%) over 80 years. As can be seen from the age of 60, over 57% of cases are concentrated. However, mortality is much more shifted towards the higher age groups. Between 40 and 49 years there was only one death (0.3%), which become three between 50 and 59 and thirty-seven between 60 and 69. From 70 to 79 years there were 114 deaths (31.9% ) and above 80 were 202, that is 56.6%.

 

[Ausmumof3]

One other thing to keep on mind where considering the statistics on age is that older people are dying faster.  In China at first it was mostly elderly but toward the end there have been younger healthcare workers etc.  people with healthier immune systems fight for longer.  It doesn’t mean there will be huge numbers of younger healthier people dying but those numbers will more likely increase very slightly as cases resolve.

[Lang Syne Boardie]

Sorry to drop in with this when the convo has moved on, but I thought people would like to hear about this:

The local school district, which is entirely closed due to diagnosed cases, has seen an unexpected but very natural solution to the childcare problem: High school students, mostly girls, have volunteered!! A few girls thought of it and posted the offer on social media, and others quickly joined.

You can see how perfect this is - they're within the same school district so references can be found quickly, they are also out of school but not working adult jobs, the children can be kept in smaller groups since there are more carers, and children and teens are both lower risk demographics.

I am just so proud of these young people.

[madteaparty]

40 minutes ago, Arctic Mama said:

Age and air pollution seem to be factors there, but there are other rate of transmission issues that are still a mystery as to the disparity. Just do what you can individually and watch the situation, I think that’s wise.

Pollution in Northern Italy?  I am fairly sensitive to pollution and definitely felt in in Paris, but northern Italy? I haven’t at all noticed 

[Corraleno]

4 minutes ago, madteaparty said:

Pollution in Northern Italy?  I am fairly sensitive to pollution and definitely felt in in Paris, but northern Italy? I haven’t at all noticed 

"Air pollution is a huge problem in Italy. A report in 2018 showed that air quality levels were a red alert for Italy. Way back in early 2011, officials reported that pollution in Italy was reaching crisis levels. What's particularly troublesome is particle pollution that pervades Italy, and accounts for breathing and heart problems, causing a whopping 9% of deaths of Italians over the age of 30."

From the link in the article above:

"Smog and pollution are choking Italian cities year-round and many towns are exceeding their limits on fine particles and other pollution, according to a new report from Italian environmental authority Legambiente. Its annual report, published this week, warned that 2018's figures were a “red alert" for Italy. 

At least one of two daily pollution limits, on fine particles and ozone emissions, was exceeded in 55 of Italy’s regional capitals.

Almost all of the worst affected cities are in northern Italy."

[Corraleno]

Excellent interview in NYT with an epidemiological mathematician from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine:

"Early on, people looked at total current cases and deaths, which, as I said, is a flawed calculation, and concluded that the case fatality rate must be 2 percent based on China data. If you run the same calculation on yesterday’s totals for China, you get an apparent CFR (case fatality rate) of near 4 percent. People are speculating that something is happening with the virus, where it actually is just this statistical illusion that we’ve known about from Day 1. I’d say on best available data, when we adjust for unreported cases and the various delays involved, we’re probably looking at a fatality risk of probably between maybe 0.5 and 2 percent for people with symptoms."

So that's 0.5-2% fatality rate for those who are symptomatic. That's right in line with the 0.7-0.8% stats from S Korea and from China outside of Hubei province, where they count people that test positive but are asymptomatic.

 

Edited March 11, 2020 by Corraleno

[prairiewindmomma]

5 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Excellent interview in NYT with an epidemiological mathematician from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine:

"Early on, people looked at total current cases and deaths, which, as I said, is a flawed calculation, and concluded that the case fatality rate must be 2 percent based on China data. If you run the same calculation on yesterday’s totals for China, you get an apparent CFR (case fatality rate) of near 4 percent. People are speculating that something is happening with the virus, where it actually is just this statistical illusion that we’ve known about from Day 1. I’d say on best available data, when we adjust for unreported cases and the various delays involved, we’re probably looking at a fatality risk of probably between maybe 0.5 and 2 percent for people with symptoms."

So that's 0.5-2% fatality rate for those who are symptomatic. That's right in line with the stats from S Korea and from China outside of Hubei province, where they count people that test positive but are asymptomatic.

 

NM--someone else brought up Italy.  I should have kept reading the thread.

I still hold that there is a disparity between SK and Italy that is not explained away by age, pollution, etc.  

I am super hard praying that this low fatality rate of symptomatic people is holding here too. I"m totally willing to believe that there are tens of thousands of people here who are already ill with covid-19--either asymptomatic, thinking that they have allergies/cold/flu, etc. 

Edited March 11, 2020 by prairiewindmomma

[Renai]

On 3/9/2020 at 2:52 PM, Æthelthryth the Texan said:

We have been trying to frequent our local Chinese place when we can too. The guy/family that owns it is super nice, and knows us by face/name, and is just amazing. When this whole thing was just getting set off, we were talking about it with him and asking questions, and he actually taught my kids to say something like "We love you Wuhan, We are thinking of you" in Mandarin(?) while holding up a banner saying the same thing- he then recorded it and added it to a collage of similar he was getting from patrons to post on whatever the Chinese version of YouTube, or whatever they were allowed to access. He kept telling us how down and depressed and hopeless the people were, so this was his way of trying to lift their spirits. I hope it helped in some way. 

On a quasi-joking point, I've been telling dh we should go out for dinner every night and do our part for the economy, while also saving our food stores and not putting more strain on local grocery outlets. I'm more than happy to do my part there. 🙂

I know the mantra has been Stay strong, Wuhan. Or, Stay strong, China. The latter is "Zhong guo jia you (中国加油)。(I think the last two characters are correct.)

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, Corraleno said:

"Air pollution is a huge problem in Italy. A report in 2018 showed that air quality levels were a red alert for Italy. Way back in early 2011, officials reported that pollution in Italy was reaching crisis levels. What's particularly troublesome is particle pollution that pervades Italy, and accounts for breathing and heart problems, causing a whopping 9% of deaths of Italians over the age of 30."

From the link in the article above:

"Smog and pollution are choking Italian cities year-round and many towns are exceeding their limits on fine particles and other pollution, according to a new report from Italian environmental authority Legambiente. Its annual report, published this week, warned that 2018's figures were a “red alert" for Italy. 

At least one of two daily pollution limits, on fine particles and ozone emissions, was exceeded in 55 of Italy’s regional capitals.

Almost all of the worst affected cities are in northern Italy."

Yes in my attempts to learn and improve Italian I have been trying to read this news and it has been topical for a while.

australia has had aie quality problems due to bushfires all summer so this isn’t totally reassuring 

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, Corraleno said:

Excellent interview in NYT with an epidemiological mathematician from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine:

"Early on, people looked at total current cases and deaths, which, as I said, is a flawed calculation, and concluded that the case fatality rate must be 2 percent based on China data. If you run the same calculation on yesterday’s totals for China, you get an apparent CFR (case fatality rate) of near 4 percent. People are speculating that something is happening with the virus, where it actually is just this statistical illusion that we’ve known about from Day 1. I’d say on best available data, when we adjust for unreported cases and the various delays involved, we’re probably looking at a fatality risk of probably between maybe 0.5 and 2 percent for people with symptoms."

So that's 0.5-2% fatality rate for those who are symptomatic. That's right in line with the 0.7-0.8% stats from S Korea and from China outside of Hubei province, where they count people that test positive but are asymptomatic.

 

For what it’s worth and I’ve already said this on this thread WHO disagrees with this.  They said China have been doing such widespread temperature screening and testing that there’s not large numbers of undetected cases.  Whether you choose to believe that or not is up to you.

we are also seeing more deaths than new cases in China now.  As expected at the end of the epidemic.  The Australian epidemiologist interviewed yesterday stated that fatality rates usually go up toward the end not down.

[Pen]

11 hours ago, chiguirre said:

The thing is, both of these statements are true.

Most people will be in the lucky 80% who don't experience severe symptoms. They may even be asymptomatic carriers. That's what we're seeing in South Korea which has massive testing and a super low Case Fatality Rate of 0.7%.

But, if enough people get sick at the same time, hospitals will collapse with the 5% who need critical care. That's what we're seeing in Italy.

If we can take steps to slow the infection rate, we'll be able to treat more severely ill patients. If all the cases bunch up, a lot more people will die for lack of critical care.

 

Which could also include people who consider themselves to be in the safe 80%, either from CV 19 if they misjudged themselves or from something else that might have been solved in hospital, but can’t be if hospitals are overwhelmed with CV19. 

[Shoeless]

55 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

we are also seeing more deaths than new cases in China now.  As expected at the end of the epidemic.  The Australian epidemiologist interviewed yesterday stated that fatality rates usually go up toward the end not down.

 

Do you have a link so I could read more?  I'm curious about why fatality rates go up and not down at the end of an epidemic.  Is it because the only patients left contracting it are those that are already weakened?

[Ausmumof3]

4 minutes ago, MissLemon said:

 

Do you have a link so I could read more?  I'm curious about why fatality rates go up and not down at the end of an epidemic.  Is it because the only patients left contracting it are those that are already weakened?

It’s not that the actual rates are going up but it’s because cases take three to six weeks to resolve as either death or recovery.  So the people infected at the peak of the epidemic when most people were being infected are dying while the number of new infections are decreasing hopefully toward zero.  So if you do a calculation in the middle there’s going to be less deaths than at the end.  Did that make sense?

[Shoeless]

12 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

It’s not that the actual rates are going up but it’s because cases take three to six weeks to resolve as either death or recovery.  So the people infected at the peak of the epidemic when most people were being infected are dying while the number of new infections are decreasing hopefully toward zero.  So if you do a calculation in the middle there’s going to be less deaths than at the end.  Did that make sense?

 

Yes, it does.  Thank you! 

[Pen]

 

8 hours ago, Corraleno said:

You posted in the other thread that you were not curtailing your son's social activities at all and had no plans to travel anyway, so insisting that no one else should travel has zero effect on you. I have no plans to play sports, or go to church, or eat in a restaurant, or even go to Costco at any time in the foreseeable future, so maybe I should suggest that everyone else stop doing those things as well. I could even go as far as suggesting that anyone who does those things clearly doesn't care about those who are elderly or at higher risk and think it's fine for them to die. /s

 

Im not insisting that you not travel. You are a grown woman. (I presume, both grown and woman of those.)  You will obviously do as you please.

 I *urge* people to curtail travel. Urging is not insisting.  

I do see nonessential international travel as being in a whole different class than going to a grocery store for needed food. 

I understand that you probably don’t agree. So be it. 

My being unable to travel has nothing to do with my urging against nonessential international travel.  

I am unable to travel due to long term chronic health issues which coincidental also probably put me in a high risk level group for Covid-19. 

We are In PNW.  I believe Covid-19 is already widespread here.  That it probably was already somewhat spread  perhaps even around the time the big long thread started.  That people in other countries are getting Covid-19 from being in USA would suggest that it was around before the deaths in Kirkland brought it to more undeniable attention. 

My son is at public school. I am not currently capable of finishing his schooling at home as homeschooling,  and our state has no plans to shut schools and move to online.  Public school is often rife with illness.  In fact it is even possible that Covid-19 already went through the school in around January—some weird prolonged respiratory illness that affected teachers worse than students sure did.  My son was not affected afaik.  

 I have moved to figuring out what can be done to help clean things and otherwise hopefully prevent serious illness, rather than restrict his social contacts.  And I am the only one put at significant increased risk from his social contacts.   There is no out of area travel that would expose others beyond what they no doubt are already exposed to.

He is 18, and we have discussed the possibility of him moving to his own lodgings because of Covid19. It would be far less expensive for him to be in his own place, than for me to be in hospital.  (Probably around same per month to rent a small apartment in this area as per day in hospital.) 

His social activities (aside from skating which he hasn’t done since before the Covid-19 outbreak) are with a few of the same kids as he is in school with all day.  So that doesn’t really change his risk as compared to being in school.  No one else like school teachers are at any increased risk from him spending time outside of school with his friends than they already are from interacting with the same group of kids or their germs  all day  at school.

And he is legally entitled to finish high school, imo.

It is not absolutely essential like breathable air, drinkable water, food and shelter are— but IMO it is nowhere near as non-essential as travel abroad for fun. 

 

 

[gardenmom5]

Inslee has banned gatherings of 250 people or more in the three most affected counties in Washington.  (not including schools.)

 

this report also includes

Public Health - Seattle & King County has said

“Our experience so far shows that the virus is volatile, unpredictable, we’ve had patients within an hour time who showed no symptoms, going to acute symptoms, being transferred to the hospital and have had patients die relatively quickly,” press liaison Timothy Killian said Saturday.

[Pen]

1 hour ago, MissLemon said:

 

Do you have a link so I could read more?  I'm curious about why fatality rates go up and not down at the end of an epidemic.  Is it because the only patients left contracting it are those that are already weakened?

 

The serious critical cases have to run their course and cfr (death rate) within the critical group is around 50%.  Unfortunately, worldometer.com does not separate critical and serious.

today the new cases for China were 2 above the newly dead. And there are over 4000 serious plus critical with more deaths expected from that group to come in next days and weeks. 

ETA: Also while less overwhelmed system and perhaps more learning what to do may improve outcomes, some of the current 16,000+ “active cases” may also result in death.  There tends to be a time lag, as for example with Dr Li the whistle blower who started out not so extremely sick, but then became serious then critical then dead over, I forget, 5 weeks or so iirc. 

Edited March 11, 2020 by Pen

[Bootsie]

So, I have traveled outside of the US in the past week without much concern.  I am visiting my daughter in Austria--within 30 minutes of the Italian border.  In fact, she has a view of the Brenner Pass (where traffic is being stopped at the border) from her balcony.

Ironically, I just received information that someone I know in the US has coronavirus.  I did not have contact with this person leading up to my departure, but I would have had contact this past week if I had been in the US.  

 

[Familia]

Enjoy your visit with your daughter, @Bootsie !

[Bootsie]

Here is the latest breakdown of the age of those dying in Italy:

Italy’s Civil Protection Chief and Coronavirus Emergency Commissioner Angelo Borrelli said Tuesday that said that 45% of those that have died were aged 80-89 and 32% were in their 70s, 14% were over 90, 8% were in their 60s and 2% were aged 50 to 59.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/italy-passes-10000-coronavirus-cases.html

[Katy]

Has anyone here had people "freaking out" on social media?  I haven't seen one.

I have noticed an interesting inverse correlation between the people who keep posting that this is no big deal and no worse than the flu though...  They are almost exclusively the people who have had a lot of chaos or trauma in the past year and can't deal with one more thing OR they're the one who survived three health scares recently and are at very high risk for this killing them.  Even the people who tend to have crippling anxiety but who, say, lived through the tornado in Nashville but had it destroy their whole neighborhood are loudly and publicly dismissing this with 16 social media posts in a day and eye-roll emojis.

[QueenCat]

17 hours ago, Sneezyone said:

 

A) Not hysteria. The Saudi move to undercut US and Russian oil producers is meaningful and problematic. B) The impact of this disease once it reaches its peak is profound and real, and C) markets recover, they always do. Anyone close to retirement age with heavy stock exposure in their portfolio is foolish.

 

One can have a well-balanced 401k and still be hit heavily. My husband and I are not foolish. He's about 10 years away from retirement, but we'll have to see how quick things recover to really know. 

There absolutely is hysteria going on. Around here, if one needs toilet paper, one can't get it because people are hoarding it. There are other products that many can't get any because others are hoarding, which is disgusting human behavior. 

[QueenCat]

17 hours ago, StellaM said:

If so-called 'hysteria' saves people's lives, it's worth it.

 

 

By hysteria, I don't mean don't take precautions. I mean "be rational." Don't hoard the toilet paper and sanitizing wipes so others can't have any. Don't assume everything you hear on the internet. Look at legit news sources... 

[Sneezyone]

14 minutes ago, QueenCat said:

 

One can have a well-balanced 401k and still be hit heavily. My husband and I are not foolish. He's about 10 years away from retirement, but we'll have to see how quick things recover to really know. 

There absolutely is hysteria going on. Around here, if one needs toilet paper, one can't get it because people are hoarding it. There are other products that many can't get any because others are hoarding, which is disgusting human behavior. 

 

https://money.cnn.com/2018/03/07/retirement/safer-retirement-portfolio/index.html

DH and I are in our early 40s. This just isn't a concern for us when compared to the risks of the virus itself for our family members and friends. The market fundamentals with respect to Saudi Arabia's oil production are serious and the market has responded. In addition, YES, there will be consequences, economically, of GLOBAL supply chains being disrupted as well as US consumer spending reductions. The human responses to this threat (not spending, not traveling, self-quarantining) aren't hysterical. The broader economic effect is rational. They're all based on the actual steps that NEED to be taken and WILL be taken here, as they have elsewhere in the world.

[TechWife]

17 hours ago, QueenCat said:

The hysteria is killing our economy. Don't look at your 401ks unless you want to cry. Dh will likely have to work a few more years after the hit we took this past week. Things go down much faster than they go back up. History proves that. 

it’s really not about the money, though. There are real people getting sick, real people mourning the loss of their family and friends.

The economic problems can’t be attributed solely to “hysteria.” There are real supply chain issues. There are other issues as well. Economists have been saying for a couple of years that we are due for a downturn. This has just accelerated it. FWIW, we may be postponing retirement as well. 

[QueenCat]

8 minutes ago, Sneezyone said:

 

https://money.cnn.com/2018/03/07/retirement/safer-retirement-portfolio/index.html

DH and I are in our early 40s. This just isn't a concern for us when compared to the risks of the virus itself for our family members and friends. The market fundamentals with respect to Saudi Arabia's oil production are serious and the market has responded. In addition, YES, there will be consequences, economically, of GLOBAL supply chains being disrupted as well as US consumer spending reductions. The human responses to this threat (not spending, not traveling, self-quarantining) aren't hysterical. The broader economic effect is rational. They're all based on the actual steps that NEED to be taken and WILL be taken here, as they have elsewhere in the world.

 

Thanks, I really don't need financial advice. We've done well and will recover. It just might take a longer to get to the retirement goals. I do understand our global economy, better than many. Many of the human responses are rational, but there are also many that create new problems, making the non-health concerns worse.

As far as the actual virus, I never said people shouldn't be concerned. They do need to be rational. There is a difference between rational and irrational behaviors. 

[QueenCat]

6 minutes ago, TechWife said:

it’s really not about the money, though. There are real people getting sick, real people mourning the loss of their family and friends.

The economic problems can’t be attributed solely to “hysteria.” There are real supply chain issues. There are other issues as well. Economists have been saying for a couple of years that we are due for a downturn. This has just accelerated it. FWIW, we may be postponing retirement as well. 

 

It's about both. I'm not unfeeling or ignorant. I do get that real people are being affected. My comment was solely about ONE aspect. The economic issues are impacted by many factors, one of which is hysteria. I do understand supply chains...  

[Sneezyone]

2 minutes ago, QueenCat said:

 

Thanks, I really don't need financial advice. We've done well and will recover. It just might take a longer to get to the retirement goals. I do understand our global economy, better than many. Many of the human responses are rational, but there are also many that create new problems, making the non-health concerns worse.

As far as the actual virus, I never said people shouldn't be concerned. They do need to be rational. There is a difference between rational and irrational behaviors. 

 

My apologies. It came across as, dare I say it, hysterical about the recent loss of market value.

[katilac]

1 hour ago, QueenCat said:

There absolutely is hysteria going on. Around here, if one needs toilet paper, one can't get it because people are hoarding it. There are other products that many can't get any because others are hoarding, which is disgusting human behavior. 

The shortages are not due only to people hoarding. Some people were sending supplies to relatives in other countries, which at least has good motivation.