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3 minutes ago, Plum said:

 

A quick read shows that this is a 14 month long safety trial, after which efficacy trials would be done. I wonder if the timeline would be sped up if there are no red flags early in the safety trial. If this virus shows a seasonal pattern, ebbing in the summer and circulating again in the fall and winter, it could be causing disruption for a long time.

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The thing is...we have an instacart version. We could use WHO tests. We could use the tests South Korea has. Heck, a US company has been selling South Korea rapid tests. They just haven’t been FDA approved. Stanford has created a rapid test. 

This is a debacle of epic proportions.

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https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/05/812679331/when-coronavirus-struck-seattle-this-lab-was-ready-to-start-testing

The UW developed a test early in the outbreak, and according to this article they will be able to process 4000 samples a day in the near future. I'm glad that someone was paying attention to world news and preparing!

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1 minute ago, Hilltopmom said:

my college kid cancelled his international spring break plans & is coming home instead, whew

But both big kids have amazing summer job plans- one an internship near his college that we need to find an apartment for. And one kiddo who will be working at her favorite summer camp as a first year counselor finally.

Really hope this is over by summer so those can carry on.

If schools here get shut down, we will likely be making up the time in the summer, unless state Ed decides to waive the number of school days requirement.  Many schools are prepping for distance learning but lots of our students don’t have internet or computers at home. Our rural areas has many places with no access to internet.

 

Yes. Our rural area only recently got internet access beyond dial up (which had become essentially useless) and we are on furthest edge out from a hub that can get it.  About half of the area our school district covers still doesn’t have it (and is too much in shadowed valleys for satellite or cellphone hotspotting) .  

However, school has tablets etc which could be loaned to families who don’t have their own. 

We used to drive to spots that had internet access and maybe that could still be done by people still too far out 

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22 minutes ago, SeaConquest said:

 

Sacha is supposed to go to three sleepaway camps this summer and I think they will all end up cancelled. 

 

 


This seems insane to me. Summer is so far off! We have no idea what will be happening then. We just got an email from the national board of my daughter's camp system talking about increased sanitation measures, but everything should go on as planned. 

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8 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

The thing is...we have an instacart version. We could use WHO tests. We could use the tests South Korea has. Heck, a US company has been selling South Korea rapid tests. They just haven’t been FDA approved. Stanford has created a rapid test. 

This is a debacle of epic proportions.

Agree about the debacle, but I thinks she’s talking about a VACCINE, not test...

The testing though...no excuses.

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12 minutes ago, mellifera33 said:

 

A quick read shows that this is a 14 month long safety trial, after which efficacy trials would be done. I wonder if the timeline would be sped up if there are no red flags early in the safety trial. If this virus shows a seasonal pattern, ebbing in the summer and circulating again in the fall and winter, it could be causing disruption for a long time.

I posted this earlier when I watched Dr. Fauci testify in front of the House for NIH budget

Dr. Fauci sounded confident phase one trials (45 individuals) for a vaccine will be ready in 6 weeks. He pointed out that’s the fastest ever from identification of a sequence to a phase one trial of a vaccine. The phase one trial will take about 3-4 months and if successful will go into phase two (hundreds-thousands of individual) and take a year to be fully confident that we would have a safe and working vaccine. 

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9 minutes ago, Sk8ermaiden said:


This seems insane to me. Summer is so far off! We have no idea what will be happening then. We just got an email from the national board of my daughter's camp system talking about increased sanitation measures, but everything should go on as planned. 

 

People are estimating based on the SARS epidemic. That started in November 2002 and tapered off in July 2003. This is more “contagious” than SARS because of the asymptomatic cases being much higher. There is already more deaths too than SARS.

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Maybe if kids were getting severe cases I could see it, but kids seem to be among the least affected, and many are saying we seem to have a less severe strain. It just seems like pretty serious jumping the gun. 

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I have linked this Bloomberg article up thread but now highlighting the part quoted about how important testing is https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-04/south-korea-tests-hundreds-of-thousands-to-fight-virus-outbreak

““The coronavirus is highly contagious and even those without symptoms can transmit the virus, which makes it hard to stop infection among communities,” said Lee Hyukmin, director at the Korean Society for Laboratory Medicine and a professor at Yonsei Severance Hospital. “Without enough testing capabilities, the death rate will be high as the delay worsens the damage in the lungs.”

By late February, when South Korea’s outbreak began to accelerate, four local companies had approval to sell kits to test for the virus. The country is now able to test more than 10,000 people a day. In neighboring Japan, only 2,684 people in total have been tested as of March 3.

The tests can deliver results within hours, with sensitivity rates of over 90% and are relatively easy to administer. Officials in Seoul have started operating “drive-through” testing stations in three districts where people can get tested without leaving their cars.

The country is also exporting its testing kits elsewhere, including to China, Europe and Pakistan, according to the manufacturers.

Seegene Inc., a diagnostics company based in Seoul, started developing its coronavirus testing kit during the Lunar New Year holiday in late January.

“It was an adventurous investment for the company to start developing the test kit, as we weren’t sure how contagious the virus would be at the time,” said Park Yo-han, an investor-relations manager at Seegene. “We thought we needed to contribute to society.””

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40 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

The thing is...we have an instacart version. We could use WHO tests. We could use the tests South Korea has. Heck, a US company has been selling South Korea rapid tests. They just haven’t been FDA approved. Stanford has created a rapid test. 

This is a debacle of epic proportions.

 

Do you know which company that is?

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21 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

People are estimating based on the SARS epidemic. That started in November 2002 and tapered off in July 2003. This is more “contagious” than SARS because of the asymptomatic cases being much higher. There is already more deaths too than SARS.

 

More people are infected with Covid-19.  WHO has the death rate for SARS at 9.6 percent.

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Ouch!

Quote

 

Not all countries have adopted the WHO’s recommended diagnostic. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), for instance, has developed its own assay that looks for three sequences in the N gene, which codes for the nucleocapsid phosphoprotein found in the virus’s shell, also known as the capsid. The assay also contains primers for the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase gene. Dwyer says that the principles of testing are the same; it’s just the genetic targets that vary.

Mina says it’s not clear why the CDC chose to develop a different assay to that selected by the WHO and taken up by other countries. “Was this actually based on superior knowledge that the CDC had, or was this more of an effort to just go our own route and have our own thing and feel good about developing our own test in the US versus the rest of the world?” says Mina, who is also assistant professor of epidemiology at the Harvard School of Public Health. The CDC declined to respond to questions from The Scientist.

 

This article covers the history of the tests, how each country tests and the future of testing. 

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/how-sars-cov-2-tests-work-and-whats-next-in-covid-19-diagnostics-67210

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12 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

I have linked this Bloomberg article up thread but now highlighting the part quoted about how important testing is https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-04/south-korea-tests-hundreds-of-thousands-to-fight-virus-outbreak

““The coronavirus is highly contagious and even those without symptoms can transmit the virus, which makes it hard to stop infection among communities,” said Lee Hyukmin, director at the Korean Society for Laboratory Medicine and a professor at Yonsei Severance Hospital. “Without enough testing capabilities, the death rate will be high as the delay worsens the damage in the lungs.”

By late February, when South Korea’s outbreak began to accelerate, four local companies had approval to sell kits to test for the virus. The country is now able to test more than 10,000 people a day. In neighboring Japan, only 2,684 people in total have been tested as of March 3.

The tests can deliver results within hours, with sensitivity rates of over 90% and are relatively easy to administer. Officials in Seoul have started operating “drive-through” testing stations in three districts where people can get tested without leaving their cars.

The country is also exporting its testing kits elsewhere, including to China, Europe and Pakistan, according to the manufacturers.

Seegene Inc., a diagnostics company based in Seoul, started developing its coronavirus testing kit during the Lunar New Year holiday in late January.

“It was an adventurous investment for the company to start developing the test kit, as we weren’t sure how contagious the virus would be at the time,” said Park Yo-han, an investor-relations manager at Seegene. “We thought we needed to contribute to society.””


I have a question.  If there is no treatment, how does the delay In testing worsen the lung damage?  Not enough supportive medicine?

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11 minutes ago, DoraBora said:
 

More people are infected with Covid-19.  WHO has the death rate for SARS at 9.6 percent.

 

We can't really calculate the death rate until this is over (unless you believe China you can't remotely get close), but it has already killed more people.

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1 hour ago, whitehawk said:

Can you imagine if anything else but healthcare worked like this?

You want to buy an apple. You call a nearby grocery store to ask whether they have any and how much they cost. Nope. Call the farmers' market, they suggest. The farmer you reach says you should call a store in the next town, as he can't even find grafts to get an apple tree going. The store clerk tells you to call the USDA. The USDA tells you to call the state ag school. They're on break right now, but the person answering the phone suggests that you call an orchard. The orchard has never grown apples, only pears, and suggests you check Instacart for your area. Instacart has no mention of apples and won't answer your email. It's a good thing you can just eat other food.

Eventually, you find an apple supplier.  After making you fill out a bunch of paperwork, they let you have an apple and you eat it.  You are never informed about how much an apple costs, not even a ballpark figure.  A couple of weeks later, the bill for the apple comes in the mail.  $1000...

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1 minute ago, Spryte said:


I have a question.  If there is no treatment, how does the delay In testing worsen the lung damage?  Not enough supportive medicine?

The closest analogy I can think of is asthma. There is no “cure” but people do recover.  The longer asthma gets untreated, the worse the lung damage and complications arises.

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1 minute ago, Arcadia said:

The closest analogy I can think of is asthma. There is no “cure” but people do recover.  The longer asthma gets untreated, the worse the lung damage and complications arises.


Thank you.  That is what I was thinking.  Three of us here have asthma, so my ears perk up at the word “lungs.”

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So my prof is in Egypt right now.  Will be interesting to see if they make him self-quarantine or whether he will be in class when we return.

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15 minutes ago, Katy said:

 

Do you know which company that is?

I'm digging..it was an article linked from either reddit.com/r/coronavirus or reddit.com/r/china_flu.  I read it this morning.   They even had antibodies being shown, not just antigen, in the testing...but it had a higher false positive rate.

In the meantime, I also read this article on the Atlantic, which was very good: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-have-been-tested-coronavirus/607597/?utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_content=edit-promo&utm_source=twitter&utm_term=2020-03-06T16%3A40%3A17

Ok, back to digging through my history from today...

 

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1 minute ago, Spryte said:


Thank you.  That is what I was thinking.  Three of us here have asthma, so my ears perk up at the word “lungs.”

 

My mom has lung scars due to bronchitis that shows up on X-rays. The doctors at that time assumed it was the common cold.

I have asthma since preschool age. The lung scars can only be seen in either my MRI or CT scan. I forgot which one. It doesn’t show up even on my large lung X-rays. 

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9 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

 

My mom has lung scars due to bronchitis that shows up on X-rays. The doctors at that time assumed it was the common cold.

I have asthma since preschool age. The lung scars can only be seen in either my MRI or CT scan. I forgot which one. It doesn’t show up even on my large lung X-rays. 

This is me too.

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Biomedomics is the company. I can't find the original article because every freaking search engine in this country is messed up right now with certain key words, and my links just take me back to where I read it generally (reddit).....but this link, if you scroll down, mentions the name of the company and that its tests are being used by other countries....

https://www.ncbiotech.org/news/nc-researchers-companies-help-lead-coronavirus-battle

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@mathnerd  Apple and Intel still has not announced any work from home plans.

https://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-google-amazon-twitter-microsoft-headquarters-close-coronavirus-2020-3

“Facebook said late Thursday it was "strongly" recommending staff in its Bay Area officeswork from home.

"This decision is based on our desire to minimize the risk of spreading COVID-19. The health and safety of our teams, their loved ones and our neighbors remain a top priority," a Facebook spokesperson told Business Insider.

"Based on guidance from Santa Clara County today, we are strongly recommending that all Bay Area employees and contingent staff work from home starting tomorrow, Friday, March 6," they added.

Facebook has also shut down its Seattle offices after a contract worker tested positive for the virus.

... 

Amazon has asked workers in its hometown of Seattle and nearby Bellevue to stay home until the end of March, CNBC reports. This encompasses roughly 2,000 employees.

The company confirmed earlier this week that one of its Seattle-based workers had been quarantined after testing positive for the virus. Two Amazon employees in Italy have also contracted the virus.

Google has also asked all of its employees in its Washington State and California offices to work from home if they can, according to GeekWire. It additionally asked any employees who choose to come into its Washington offices not to bring any visitors.

Unlike Facebook and Amazon, Google has yet to report a confirmed coronavirus case in any of its US workforce, although an employee in its Zurich office was confirmed to have caught the virus last week.

Twitter has also asked employees to work from home per BuzzFeed, as has CEO Jack Dorsey's fintech company Square.

Speaking to BuzzFeed, Twitter's head of human resources Jennifer Christie tried to put a positive spin on the situation.

"We'll never probably be the same, people who were reticent to work remotely will find that they really thrive that way. Managers who didn't think they could manage teams that were remote will have a different perspective. I do think we won't go back," she said.

Twitter wants all 5,000 employees to work from home, and has mandated it for any in Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong. Dorsey has also pulled out of an appearance at the SXSW conference in Austin, Texas.

Microsoft said it will pay its 4,500 hourly workers even if their hours are reduced

Originally Microsoft had told employees in its Seattle and San Francisco offices that they could work from home until March 9, but on Wednesday it extended that deadline to March 25.

The company will also continue to pay its 4,500 hourly workers — cafeteria workers, shuttle bus drivers — even if they work reduced hours. "This will ensure that, in Puget Sound for example, the 4,500 hourly employees who work in our facilities will continue to receive their regular wages even if their work hours are reduced," the company said.

Slack put out a statement on Thursday announcing it was encouraging staff to work from home on Friday after discovering that one of its employees had just returned from "an area with potential COVID-19 exposure while traveling overseas."

"This employee has not been confirmed to have contracted COVID-19 and has not reported any symptoms. However, because this employee was present in the office after returning from travel we are taking the following actions out of an abundance of caution," Slack said.

It said it would close its San Francisco offices over Friday afternoon and the weekend to perform a thorough deep clean”

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2 hours ago, Pawz4me said:

Second case in NC (Chatham County). The person had been in Italy in late February, and apparently had also been in contact with one of the people in Georgia who have it.

This is local to me. I just saw the notification sent out via FB from our county emergency center. I hope he's been strict with his self-isolation (though I'm not holding my breath - he was in an outbreak area and symptomatic and he still flew home...)

Edited by alisoncooks
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So, can you guys help me think through something? 

Youngest does not cover her cough.  Like, ever. And I'm getting droplet spray from her being by her. (She has a mild viral bug she brought home from school....10 days later, still coughing.) I'm not worried that what she has right now is covid-19, but odds are decent my husband or son still in public school will bring it home to us.  

I'm considering making some cough masks for her.....many of them that I can wash in the sterilize cycle of my washing machine. Right now, I would have to care for her at least part of the time, though I'm hoping that her one non-asthmatic sibling can help.  I have only a handful of N95 masks and I can't wear one for more than 4 hours without having issues due to my own lung/asthma issues. We have a HEPA filter, which will help, but I need to sort this out.  

Ideas??? I've seen really mixed things. I am operating under the "something is better than nothing" as long as I keep those masks relatively dry and sterilized. I do have an old wet bag she can put them in that I can turn into the washer without having to touch the masks myself. 

Feedback? WHO or CDC actually published a pattern some years ago using a Hanes cotton t-shirt that they preshrunk. I have some cloth fabric, but am considering doing multilayers to try to contain spray.  I'm also going to adapt the straps so that they fit more like respirator straps.....

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7 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

So, can you guys help me think through something? 

Youngest does not cover her cough.  Like, ever. And I'm getting droplet spray from her being by her. (She has a mild viral bug she brought home from school....10 days later, still coughing.) I'm not worried that what she has right now is covid-19, but odds are decent my husband or son still in public school will bring it home to us.  

I'm considering making some cough masks for her.....many of them that I can wash in the sterilize cycle of my washing machine. Right now, I would have to care for her at least part of the time, though I'm hoping that her one non-asthmatic sibling can help.  I have only a handful of N95 masks and I can't wear one for more than 4 hours without having issues due to my own lung/asthma issues. We have a HEPA filter, which will help, but I need to sort this out.  

Ideas??? I've seen really mixed things. I am operating under the "something is better than nothing" as long as I keep those masks relatively dry and sterilized. I do have an old wet bag she can put them in that I can turn into the washer without having to touch the masks myself. 

Feedback? WHO or CDC actually published a pattern some years ago using a Hanes cotton t-shirt that they preshrunk. I have some cloth fabric, but am considering doing multilayers to try to contain spray.  I'm also going to adapt the straps so that they fit more like respirator straps.....

How old is youngest?  My answer is highly dependent upon that. 

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I'd make one and have her try wearing it, prairiewindmomma, as I don't think it could hurt.

@Cecropia, and even if the apple was too small or rotten and you're still left hungry, you're out the $1k.

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So I know that there are probably not enough tests to do this, but shouldn't every single healthcare worker be tested every so often?

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20 minutes ago, Happymomof1 said:

So I know that there are probably not enough tests to do this, but shouldn't every single healthcare worker be tested every so often?

I think there should be *at minimum* somebody with a fever scanning gun at employee, patient, and visitor entrances of anywhere medical stuff happens (and also at at the entrance to the TSA line at major airports).

ETA: This is not hard to do. My kid's camp did it last summer, along with a lice check, for all arriving campers.

Edited by whitehawk
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11 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

So, can you guys help me think through something? 

Youngest does not cover her cough.  Like, ever. And I'm getting droplet spray from her being by her. (She has a mild viral bug she brought home from school....10 days later, still coughing.) I'm not worried that what she has right now is covid-19, but odds are decent my husband or son still in public school will bring it home to us.  

I'm considering making some cough masks for her.....many of them that I can wash in the sterilize cycle of my washing machine. Right now, I would have to care for her at least part of the time, though I'm hoping that her one non-asthmatic sibling can help.  I have only a handful of N95 masks and I can't wear one for more than 4 hours without having issues due to my own lung/asthma issues. We have a HEPA filter, which will help, but I need to sort this out.  

Ideas??? I've seen really mixed things. I am operating under the "something is better than nothing" as long as I keep those masks relatively dry and sterilized. I do have an old wet bag she can put them in that I can turn into the washer without having to touch the masks myself. 

Feedback? WHO or CDC actually published a pattern some years ago using a Hanes cotton t-shirt that they preshrunk. I have some cloth fabric, but am considering doing multilayers to try to contain spray.  I'm also going to adapt the straps so that they fit more like respirator straps.....

 

Realistically if someone brings it home you're all likely to get it, even if you don't get symptoms.  I would try to focus on putting more energy into washing hands, changing clothes, and possibly even showering every time someone comes home from work or school.

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Just now, whitehawk said:

I think there should be *at minimum* somebody with a fever scanning gun at employee, patient, and visitor entrances of anywhere medical stuff happens (and also at at the entrance to the TSA line at major airports).

Yes, but it spreads when asymptomatic.  Would that help?  How would you know if a fever is the flu Covid-19 or something else?

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The results of the Grand Princess coronavirus test is still not out yet. However there is a cluster from the previous cruise on this cruiseliner.

https://www.ktvu.com/news/3-new-covid-19-cases-in-contra-costa-co-with-connection-to-grand-princess-ship.amp

“Contra Costa Health Services(CCHS) said the three patients are confirmed to have the virus and are in isolation at their homes.

Officials said two of the patients were previous passengers aboard the Grand Princess cruise ship and the third case is known to have had close contact with someone who had the virus in another jurisdiction.”

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/03/06/coronavirus-grand-princess-disease-cluster-confirmed-cases-grows/

“SAN FRANCISCO (CBS SF) — The number of Northern California residents who contracted the coronavirus on a February cruise to Mexico aboard the Grand Princess grew to at least five Friday with two new cases reported in Contra Costa County.

...

While the current cruise has raised plenty of concern, local health officials were also dealing with coronavirus-related health issues that have arisen from the ship’s previous round-trip voyage from San Francisco to Mexico on Feb. 11-21.

Hundreds of Northern California residents were on the popular cruise and so far five have been diagnosed with the virus; at least one former passenger has died”

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9 minutes ago, Happymomof1 said:

Yes, but it spreads when asymptomatic.  Would that help?  How would you know if a fever is the flu Covid-19 or something else?

People who have anything else that causes fever should also be kept away from others-- it's appropriate to isolate them even if what they actually have is flu.

It's the before-fever-starts time that's a problem for sure. I mean, for all I know, I could have it right now (somebody in my metro area does and was loose for several days before being isolated at home), and I've been going all over the place (library, post office, stores, homeschool groups). All I've done to reduce the risk to others is remove my rings (wearing them on a necklace) to improve my hand-washing and show my kid a proper hand-washing video. At least I don't have a fever. But I'm also not a hospital food-service worker or somebody whose infection is particularly a one-step risk to high-risk populations.

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19 minutes ago, Katy said:

 

Realistically if someone brings it home you're all likely to get it, even if you don't get symptoms.  I would try to focus on putting more energy into washing hands, changing clothes, and possibly even showering every time someone comes home from work or school.

while that's logical - the high school student has it from an unknown source, his whole family has been tested and they're negative.

 

eta; - though there have been indications someone wont' test positive until they're symptomatic, and they're contagious before they're symptomatic.

Edited by gardenmom5

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1 minute ago, gardenmom5 said:

eta; - though there have been indications someone wont' test positive until they're symptomatic, and they're contagious before they're symptomatic.

The research papers from China have asymptomatic positive cases listed. Those cases were tested mainly due to contact tracing. 

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Youngest is newly 7/1st grade.  She's working on basic hygiene like throwing away her own kleenex instead of leaving it on the desk/couch, washing her hands properly, and covering her cough....but when she is tired or ill it all goes out the window.

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1 hour ago, Arcadia said:

@mathnerd  Apple and Intel still has not announced any work from home plans.

Just drove past Apple HQ in cupertino, it is business as usual with groups of employees walking out for lunch, intra-office shuttle taxis ferrying groups of people, delivery trucks buzzing around etc. I believe that Intel and Apple would be the very last of the big companies to change their policies. And huge public middle school over there was holding an assembly with at least 700 kids too.

Edited by mathnerd
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37 minutes ago, Katy said:

 

Realistically if someone brings it home you're all likely to get it, even if you don't get symptoms.  I would try to focus on putting more energy into washing hands, changing clothes, and possibly even showering every time someone comes home from work or school.

We are doing those things.  Dh and the boys are the only ones going out in public right now, and they are showering and changing clothes when they come home. We are also doing nutritional supplements, etc.  I've also removed my wedding ring with a stone, and we're all scrubbing like surgeons.

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3 hours ago, whitehawk said:

Can you imagine if anything else but healthcare worked like this?

You want to buy an apple. You call a nearby grocery store to ask whether they have any and how much they cost. Nope. Call the farmers' market, they suggest. The farmer you reach says you should call a store in the next town, as he can't even find grafts to get an apple tree going. The store clerk tells you to call the USDA. The USDA tells you to call the state ag school. They're on break right now, but the person answering the phone suggests that you call an orchard. The orchard has never grown apples, only pears, and suggests you check Instacart for your area. Instacart has no mention of apples and won't answer your email. It's a good thing you can just eat other food.

That's how China started out too, and the US was really criticizing them for it. And now we're in the same boat doing the exact same thing. As though a lesson was not learned.

In other testing news: end of day March 4, 10 tests were completed. By end of March 5, 16 tests were completed. Testing is obviously not a priority in NM. When I look at the US map, I can see there's a tiny corner at the top of NM where we can escape COVID...

Edited by Renai
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Any thoughts on all of the homeschool conventions that are coming up?  Great Homeschool Conventions are happening. I’m curious if they’ll cancel those. 

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26 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

Just drove past Apple HQ in cupertino, it is business as usual with groups of employees walking out for lunch, intra-office shuttle taxis ferrying groups of people, delivery trucks buzzing around etc. I believe that Intel and Apple would be the very last of the big companies to change their policies. And huge public middle school over there was holding an assembly with at least 700 kids too.

supposedly - apple is telling all of their employees to work from home.

Edited by gardenmom5

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3 hours ago, Katy said:

We can't really calculate the death rate until this is over (unless you believe China you can't remotely get close), but it has already killed more people.

You are correct.  We can't calculate until the dust settles. 

Edited by DoraBora

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