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wuhan - coronavirus

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26 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

The NSW health minister stated in the media conference yesterday that there was no risk from parcels or food from China.  
for what that’s worth.

the video footage of the guys in hazmat suits spraying down park benches and steps etc make me assume that in China they must be worried about hard surface transfer but that may be Precaution due to lack of knowledge rather than based on known risk.

we have a parcel due in any day and I must admit it’s been on my mind.

 

🤔

I think I read that it’s pretty certain to be transmissible from surfaces.  Unknown for how long or what conditions.  

If it were me, right now I might proceed with an “abundance of caution.” 

Maybe gloves / mask or scarf around mouth and nose to open it? If a parcel from China could be let sit out in sun (assuming you have sun, and based on sun generally helping to clean things) all day, turning to expose all sides before opening — and best give it minimum of 48 hours sitting time for any virus inside to become less viable, I’d probably do that. 

 

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37 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

The NSW health minister stated in the media conference yesterday that there was no risk from parcels or food from China.  
for what that’s worth.

the video footage of the guys in hazmat suits spraying down park benches and steps etc make me assume that in China they must be worried about hard surface transfer but that may be Precaution due to lack of knowledge rather than based on known risk.

we have a parcel due in any day and I must admit it’s been on my mind.

 

Open it, dispose of packaging, wash your hands with soap and water for 2 rounds of Happy Birthday 🙂

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From BBC https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51318246

“The new coronavirus has been declared a global emergency by the World Health Organization, as the outbreak continues to spread outside China.

"The main reason for this declaration is not what is happening in China but what is happening in other countries," said WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. 

The concern is that it could spread to countries with weaker health systems. 

The death toll now stands at 170 people in China. 

The WHO said there had been 98 cases in 18 countries outside of the country, but no deaths. 

Most cases have emerged in people who have travelled from the Chinese city of Wuhan, where the outbreak began.

However, there have been eight cases of human-to-human infection - in Germany, Japan, Vietnam and the United States. 

Dr Tedros, speaking at the press conference in Geneva, described the virus as an "unprecedented outbreak" that has been met with an "unprecedented response".

He praised the "extraordinary measures" Chinese authorities had taken to prevent it from spreading. 

"Let me be clear, this declaration is not a vote of no confidence in China," he added. 

When has this happened in the past? 

The WHO declares a Public Health Emergency of International Concern when there is "an extraordinary event which is determined … to constitute a public health risk to other states through the international spread of disease". 

It has previously declared five global public health emergencies”

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4 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

Regarding sanitizer vs hand washing, I remember a few years ago watching people come out of a public restroom at a theme park complaining in confusion that there was no hand sanitizer - how were they going to deal with the germs??

Um...y'all just left a space with soap and water. Try that? 

Seems they avoided the soap and water in expectations of hand sanitizer stations?

This reminds me - my dh told me that men's restrooms are often so gross that he avoids touching the faucets and uses hand sanitizer instead.

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I’m listening to the podcast “The Daily” for today, it’s called “A Virus’s Journey Across China.”  Very interesting!  They are talking to a journalist who talked to people whose parents died of respiratory illnesses but weren’t tested for this Coronavirus but maybe/probably they did have it.  

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Cruise ship passengers tested negative but positive for h1n2  I guess that’s a good thing though flu on a cruise ship probably isn’t great.

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37 minutes ago, Lecka said:

I’m listening to the podcast “The Daily” for today, it’s called “A Virus’s Journey Across China.”  Very interesting!  They are talking to a journalist who talked to people whose parents died of respiratory illnesses but weren’t tested for this Coronavirus but maybe/probably they did have it.  

 

I just listened. Thanks for recommending that!

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48 minutes ago, Lecka said:

I’m listening to the podcast “The Daily” for today, it’s called “A Virus’s Journey Across China.”  Very interesting!  They are talking to a journalist who talked to people whose parents died of respiratory illnesses but weren’t tested for this Coronavirus but maybe/probably they did have it.  

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/health-experts-say-humantohuman-spread-of-new-virus-is-worrying/news-story/9c2a58ffe1060669fe65f8408ad5655e

this kind of follows the same lines.  They may have been sending bodies for cremation without identification to avoid adding to the official numbers.  Hopefully not true but sounds believable.

looks like the increase wasn’t so significant today if the numbers are accurate so maybe the lockdown is working.

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38 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

9171 confirmed and 213 deaths

 

Pro: That’s lower than “crazy” projections.
Con: The official estimated numbers (is that an oxymoron?) are closer.

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1 minute ago, Carrie12345 said:

Pro: That’s lower than “crazy” projections.
Con: The official estimated numbers (is that an oxymoron?) are closer.

We still have a lack of tests though. A lack of testing plus burning the bodies? We don't know how many have it or the mortality rate.

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8 hours ago, klmama said:

I read recently that children who get the flu vaccine each year are more susceptible to pandemic varieties of influenza A because they haven't developed immunity via natural infection with seasonal influenza A.  It was from a study in a peer-reviewed journal - something about virology, I think?  As an alternative, studies have shown vitamin D has a strong effect against both influenza and the common cold.  Many people are deficient in vitamin D and have no idea.  

 

I wonder if this contributes to fewer cases of cold and flu in the summer months vs winter ones?

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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

9171 confirmed and 213 deaths

 

Where are you getting these confirmation numbers?  I am following the ones on the Johns Hopkins link but they haven't been updated in several hours.

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14 minutes ago, Excelsior! Academy said:

 

I wonder if this contributes to fewer cases of cold and flu in the summer months vs winter ones?

 

Yes, D is probably part of it.  Humidity is another part.

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1 hour ago, PrincessMommy said:

Where are you getting these confirmation numbers?  I am following the ones on the Johns Hopkins link but they haven't been updated in several hours.

 

This link is in chinese https://news.qq.com/zt2020/page/feiyan.htm (ETA: the numbers are for China only)

confirmed (red) 9692

Suspected (yellow) 15238

Treated (greenish) 171

dead (dark gray) 213

The table on that link is provinces/major cities in China so the top line is Hubei with 204 deaths

ETA:

The last table on that link is for outside China. 100 confirmed cases 0 fatality

Edited by Arcadia
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11 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

 

This link is in chinese https://news.qq.com/zt2020/page/feiyan.htm

confirmed (red) 9692

Suspected (yellow) 15238

Treated (greenish) 171

dead (dark gray) 213

The table on that link is provinces/major cities in China so the top line is Hubei with 204 deaths

Does green mean they have recovered from the virus or are in the hospital being treated?

 

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1 minute ago, PrincessMommy said:

Does green mean they have recovered from the virus or are in the hospital being treated?

 

Treated and considered okay for discharge from hospital. According to another news article, four patients were discharged on January 29th from Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital.

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So on the 19th Jan there were around 200 cases?  Now there are that many in a couple of other provinces of China does that mean that in two weeks they are all likely to have similar levels?  I guess with increased awareness the infection control protocols might be better and slow things down.

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US State Department just declared a level 4 travel advisory to all of China. Other countries have done the same.

They are running out of testing kits and hospitals are overwhelmed. The numbers aren’t going to be accurate because of that and other reasons. At least they’re working with other countries.

A US evacuee who flew into Riverside mentioned that the CDC thinks this virus has been around since possibly October. They are taking blood samples to check for antibodies. I’m following the person who’s talking about it.

Ugh. I feel very sorry for the people in China.

Edited by BeachGal
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16 minutes ago, BeachGal said:

US State Department just declared a level 4 travel advisory to all of China. Other countries have done the same.

They are running out of testing kits and hospitals are overwhelmed. The numbers aren’t going to be accurate because of that and other reasons. At least they’re working with other countries.

A US evacuee who flew into Riverside mentioned that the CDC thinks this virus has been around since possibly October. They are taking blood samples to check for antibodies. I’m following the person who’s talking about it.

Ugh. I feel very sorry for the people in China.

Do you have a link for the bolded?

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1 hour ago, Arcadia said:

 

This link is in chinese https://news.qq.com/zt2020/page/feiyan.htm (ETA: the numbers are for China only)

confirmed (red) 9692

Suspected (yellow) 15238

Treated (greenish) 171

dead (dark gray) 213

The table on that link is provinces/major cities in China so the top line is Hubei with 204 deaths

ETA:

The last table on that link is for outside China. 100 confirmed cases 0 fatality

Ah! I think this is what I had been seeing circulating Weibo, or something similar. Thanks for interpreting it. The translation wasn't coming through clear at all, and I can only read about 20 characters in Chinese...

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The plane flight that had an infected passenger here and they’ve been trying to contact people to let them know.  Well a lady walked into the emergency asking for testing because she’d been on the flight and since developed a sore throat.  She was turned away because she didn’t meet the criteria of having been in Wuhan in the last fourteen days or being in close contact with a case.  So why are they trying to trace the passengers if they won’t test them anyway?

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6 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

The plane flight that had an infected passenger here and they’ve been trying to contact people to let them know.  Well a lady walked into the emergency asking for testing because she’d been on the flight and since developed a sore throat.  She was turned away because she didn’t meet the criteria of having been in Wuhan in the last fourteen days or being in close contact with a case.  So why are they trying to trace the passengers if they won’t test them anyway?

 

Technically being in the same plane as an infected passenger would mean she has been in close contact with a case. So she did meet the criteria for testing.

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6 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

The plane flight that had an infected passenger here and they’ve been trying to contact people to let them know.  Well a lady walked into the emergency asking for testing because she’d been on the flight and since developed a sore throat.  She was turned away because she didn’t meet the criteria of having been in Wuhan in the last fourteen days or being in close contact with a case.  So why are they trying to trace the passengers if they won’t test them anyway?

 

Ugh.  That’s Depressing. 

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44 minutes ago, TrixieB said:

Do you have a link for the bolded?

 

Not handy. Media has been contacting her, though. If cases were mild, China probably would not have known that early.

I’m curious about the antibodies, though. The CDC is cautious when they make statements but when they do their next briefing, I’m hoping they’ll elaborate on this. It’s probably too soon, though. What I’d like to know is whether the antibodies could be made into a treatment. It seems they can. The German coronavirus expert Rolf Hilgenfeld also personally delivered two virus inhibitors into China in January, but I’m guessing those would take time to produce or use on masses of people.

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/how-new-wuhan-coronavirus-stacks-up-against-sars-mers

Quote

 

Researchers have also developed some experimental treatments based on SARS and MERS, including antibodies that may help combat the infections, Fauci says. 

Getting samples of the new virus may allow researchers to develop “monoclonal” antibodies in the lab. Or scientists may be able to take immune B cells from people who already have recovered from the virus to produce antibodies to help other infected people. 

Some antiviral medications have shown promise in treating MERS, and are being tested for their effectiveness against 2019-nCoV. Experimental vaccines, Fauci wrote in JAMA, including some based on RNA, are also in the works.

 

 

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I thought some of you might be interested in the article in New England Journal of Medicine.  It might lower the anxiety of some of the posters in this thread: Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany

Quote

....A 33-year-old otherwise healthy German businessman (Patient 1) became ill with a sore throat, chills, and myalgias on January 24, 2020. The following day, a fever of 39.1°C (102.4°F) developed, along with a productive cough. By the evening of the next day, he started feeling better and went back to work on January 27....

On January 28, three additional employees at the company tested positive for 2019-nCoV (Patients 2 through 4 in Figure 1). Of these patients, only Patient 2 had contact with the index patient; the other two patients had contact only with Patient 1. In accordance with the health authorities, all the patients with confirmed 2019-nCoV infection were admitted to a Munich infectious diseases unit for clinical monitoring and isolation. So far, none of the four confirmed patients show signs of severe clinical illness.

This case of 2019-nCoV infection was diagnosed in Germany and transmitted outside of Asia. However, it is notable that the infection appears to have been transmitted during the incubation period of the index patient, in whom the illness was brief and nonspecific.3

 

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2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

So on the 19th Jan there were around 200 cases?  Now there are that many in a couple of other provinces of China does that mean that in two weeks they are all likely to have similar levels?  I guess with increased awareness the infection control protocols might be better and slow things down.


What I read was that the recent spike was due to a backlog of cases that were tested. So basically they received more test kits and started clearing the backlog three days ago. With greater availability of test kits, the number of confirmed cases might be more.

1 hour ago, Renai said:

Ah! I think this is what I had been seeing circulating Weibo, or something similar. Thanks for interpreting it. The translation wasn't coming through clear at all, and I can only read about 20 characters in Chinese...


This one is from the govt controlled press and was updated yesterday. Beijing time is GMT+8 

http://news.cctv.com/2020/01/31/ARTIZGWRwtyS6G8MJqtPl5a3200131.shtml?spm=C94212.PBPcw7UCTq1W.EBlw2yQvCCZu.16

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1 minute ago, Arcadia said:


What I read was that the recent spike was due to a backlog of cases that were tested. So basically they received more test kits and started clearing the backlog three days ago. With greater availability of test kits, the number of confirmed cases might be more.


This one is from the govt controlled press and was updated yesterday. Beijing time is GMT+8 

http://news.cctv.com/2020/01/31/ARTIZGWRwtyS6G8MJqtPl5a3200131.shtml?spm=C94212.PBPcw7UCTq1W.EBlw2yQvCCZu.16

That would make sense and feel less concerning 

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15 minutes ago, 8FillTheHeart said:

I thought some of you might be interested in the article in New England Journal of Medicine.  It might lower the anxiety of some of the posters in this thread: Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany

 

I think that is the one I linked?

why is it reassuring?  Am I missing something?

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1 hour ago, Pen said:

 

Ugh.  That’s Depressing. 

It did have a bit of a publicity stunt feel so it’s possible that there’s a back story or something.  Just seemed inconsistent.  The impression I have maybe is the tests are either in short supply or too expensive so they don’t want to use them unless there’s serious sickness.

Edited by Ausmumof3

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Just now, Ausmumof3 said:

I think that is the one I linked?

why is it reassuring?  Am I missing something?

You might have.  I rarely read the chat forum and only skimmed some of the posts.   I find the German cases reassuring b/c all 4 patients had very mild illnesses.  They were not hospitalized bc they needed to be hospitalized.  They were only hospitalized b/c they had the coronavirus.  

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1 hour ago, Arcadia said:

 

Technically being in the same plane as an infected passenger would mean she has been in close contact with a case. So she did meet the criteria for testing.

Apparently not unless you were in the 10 rows directly next to the person because it’s droplet born which means close contact is a 3m radius?  I don’t know that’s just what was said.

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23 minutes ago, 8FillTheHeart said:

You might have.  I rarely read the chat forum and only skimmed some of the posts.   I find the German cases reassuring b/c all 4 patients had very mild illnesses.  They were not hospitalized bc they needed to be hospitalized.  They were only hospitalized b/c they had the coronavirus.  

That is what the study of the first 99 cases show.  80pc of people have mild cold like symptoms, 20pc develop severe illness/disease.  1/5 still seems scary.

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4 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Apparently not unless you were in the 10 rows directly next to the person because it’s droplet born which means close contact is a 3m radius?  I don’t know that’s just what was said.

 

I thought planes tend to suck droplets into their air recirculating system and blow germs back out again. 

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1 minute ago, Pen said:

 

I thought planes tend to suck droplets into their air recirculating system and blow germs back out again. 

Well that would be my thoughts.  Plus plane air is always drying to throat lips etc which makes transmission easier.  But I’m not an expert.  I was surprised they didn’t test her though.

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4 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

That is what the study of the first 99 cases show.  80pc of people have mild cold like symptoms, 20pc develop severe illness/disease.  1/5 still seems scary.

 

I agree.  And I don’t tend to be especially anxious about such things.

Free floating anxiety is bad, but anxiety that can lead to actions to help prevent unnecessary exposure seems like a safety mechanism for mammals, whether that involves washing with soap and water for a person  or moving to high ground when the ground rumbles for some animals who are good at avoiding tsunami waves.

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6 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

I agree.  And I don’t tend to be especially anxious about such things.

Free floating anxiety is bad, but anxiety that can lead to actions to help prevent unnecessary exposure seems like a safety mechanism for mammals, whether that involves washing with soap and water for a person  or moving to high ground when the ground rumbles for some animals who are good at avoiding tsunami waves.

I’m still not overly anxious for us here in Australia.  Or at least not for me and kids but maybe for my parents and grandparent.  As I would be with a flu outbreak etc.  I am more so for potential spread in other more populated countries and I think potentially the situation in areas of China seem concerning.  I just have been following the news too much while it’s been crazy hot.  And the inconsistencies in approach/message are bugging me.

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42 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Apparently not unless you were in the 10 rows directly next to the person because it’s droplet born which means close contact is a 3m radius?  I don’t know that’s just what was said.

 

36 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

I thought planes tend to suck droplets into their air recirculating system and blow germs back out again. 


News like National Geographic (https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/01/how-coronavirus-spreads-on-a-plane/) are quoting this Emory University FlyHealthy Research Team‘s study “Behaviors, movements, and transmission of droplet-mediated respiratory diseases during transcontinental airline flights,” (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2018). http://news.emory.edu/stories/2018/03/airline_disease_transmission_study/

Edited by Arcadia
Typing errors
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33 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

That is what the study of the first 99 cases show.  80pc of people have mild cold like symptoms, 20pc develop severe illness/disease.  1/5 still seems scary.

It sure does with a family of asthmatics, including me.

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Fortunately, it looks like their will be a precise test for this 2019-nCoV coronavirus, by March !
At the moment, they just use more general tests for Coronaviruses.
Such as the one for a specific RNA Polymerase, which is just found in Coronaviruses.
If a person is positive for this Polymerase, and has also been in close contact with someone confirmed with this Virus?
Then it is assumed that they probably have it as well.
But it is all just Probability so far.
The actual Virus was only first cultured this week.  So that it can now be used to develop tests, and hopefully a vaccine.

The real figures wont be known for a long time.  Currently with possibly related deaths, blood sample are taken and stored.  For testing later, when accurate testing can be done.

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6 hours ago, TravelingChris said:

It sure does with a family of asthmatics, including me.

yeah, my mom is a lung cancer survivor, with a large portion one lung removed and COPD. My niece has asthma and tends to get very sick with any respiratory thing. My best friend's son has some specific immune issues and just a cold has him on nebulizers and coughing so hard he can't breathe for weeks. I'm not worried for me, but for people like you and then. 

Edited by Ktgrok
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The “Post Reports” podcast had about 10 minutes about American preparations.  

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7 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I’m still not overly anxious for us here in Australia.  Or at least not for me and kids but maybe for my parents and grandparent.  As I would be with a flu outbreak etc.  I am more so for potential spread in other more populated countries and I think potentially the situation in areas of China seem concerning.  I just have been following the news too much while it’s been crazy hot.  And the inconsistencies in approach/message are bugging me.

 

I agree with that also.  

For China, of course, it’s concerning already.  And I am concerned about additional transmissions as it moved into India.  My sister did some medical volunteer work in India and said she thought it didn’t have good medical infrastructure to handle a complicated rapidly escalating contagion.  

The reports that indicated that a doctor and perhaps other medical workers are among the dead from secondary transmission from a patient (the one being called a superspreader or some word like that, iirc) are very concerning.  If true, that sort of thing makes handling the outbreak much more difficult.   

 

Edited by Pen
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Every doctor I’ve talked to says this still isn’t as bad (outside China) as the flu. It was almost comical this CNN article  was placed between many many Coronavirus articles. 
 

A deadly virus is spreading from state to state and has infected 15 million Americans so far. It's influenza

 

Edited by Plum
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18 hours ago, StellaM said:

 

Open it, dispose of packaging, wash your hands with soap and water for 2 rounds of Happy Birthday 🙂

 

IF whatever is in the packaging was not coughed or sneezed on or otherwise ended up carrying problem germs, that should work.   Outer packaging probably is handled by many more people so has higher risk.  But I think warehouse workers, shipping staff, in many places are under a lot of pressure as well, likely can’t stay home for what seems a mild cold...

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14 minutes ago, Plum said:

Every doctor I’ve talked to says this still isn’t as bad (outside China) as the flu. It was almost comical this CNN article  was placed between many many Coronavirus articles. 
 

A deadly virus is spreading from state to state and has infected 15 million Americans so far. It's influenza

 

 

My concern has to do with apparent fatality and critical cases *rate* for the Wuhan Coronavirus.   Rate, not total numbers—if apparent rate of fatality/criticality per total cases is accurate, and if the Wuhan Coronavirus gets going through a population like the influenza, it appears that it could overwhelm the medical system even in countries with quite good systems let alone places without. 

Also people don’t tend to have immunity built up for novel illnesses. 

That’s probably part of why smallpox was so much more devastating to Native Americans than it had been for Europeans, for example.  

Novel (or novel to a region) illnesses do present a legitimate concern when they appear to be spreading so quickly and to have a significant proportion of people going into critical condition so quickly.   

And paying attention to an emerging illness tends to help get it contained. 

Otoh, yes, people should Certainly also use proper sanitation with regard to influenza!

 

 

 

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