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Just now, Ausmumof3 said:

I’m not sure how old your son is but does it help to remember that the risk level for anyone under 40 is really low as far as we know?  

I’m less worried about him getting sick than I am about him being expected to isolate or need treatment for something else if hospitals are overcrowded. (Especially in a pretty elderly area.) Or bringing it to his high-risk grandmother who lives nearby.

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12 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

I’m less worried about him getting sick than I am about him being expected to isolate or need treatment for something else if hospitals are overcrowded. (Especially in a pretty elderly area.) Or bringing it to his high-risk grandmother who lives nearby.

Yes I understand that.

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https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-02/coronavirus-human-to-human-spread-in-australia/12018198?pfmredir=sm
 

1st 2 cases of human to human transmission in NSW.   The health minister recommends no major changes in routine but no hand-shaking.  Also chief medical officer confirmed anyone in ICU with pneumonia is being tested for COVID19

Edited by Ausmumof3
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7 hours ago, Seasider too said:

 

Oh I bet you are correct. Maybe by the time he markets them, one will be in effect. 

 

It is state by state.  The official statutory rules differ in each place. Plus there is Common Law.  Plus there is state practice norms— some places look out for the consumer interest more than others. 

 

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1 hour ago, StellaM said:

 

A health threat is a health threat.  And I'm not so sure people were quite so phlegmatic about, say, polio as you suggest.

 

 

Many people certainly weren’t!!! 

Nor many other illnesses either.  Small Pox, Plague freaked a lot of people out. 

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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-update-south-australia-laws-to-contain-outbreak/9825212a-1c1e-4c2a-b007-3ded210d3f69
 

laws in my state being amended to allow those at risk of spreading coronavirus to be arrested and detained.

 

Interesting.  I think 

and the no shaking hands, I d like to see more widely

For some reason I thought bot you and Rosie were in Bictoria.   

 

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If Covid-19 has been in the states for 6 weeks and we don't have 10% of the population dropping like flies, does that mean we can relax a little and that it isn't going to be so virulent here? Or is 6 weeks not long enough to spread like that? I had thought with a quickly spreading virus and no containment efforts that it could spread rapidly.

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2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Global Times:

The #HongKong International Airport suspended its road traffic and shuttle service between the airport and the mainland due to the #COVID19 epidemic. Only a few ports will remain functional, offering limited service.
 

I’ve seen this elsewhere on Twitter - basically a soft border shut down.  It seems odd if the number of cases in mainland China outside Hubei is actually as low as reported the last few days (just three or four cases). But there might be something political or something else I’m missing.

 

I saw somewhere that even China admitted that the actual number of cases were much higher than what they could confirm.

In addition while the cases numbers are coming down in Hubei, the total numbers are still high. If you were having that many new cases, that many deaths in Australia, or we were in USA it would seem like a big deal—and would still be many people to carry infection. 

Reports I read were that people were going from

China mainland to Hong Kong in seek of better medical care

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10 hours ago, Pen said:

 

That’s great! He’s mostly set already.

 I didn’t have a Y2K stash. Didn’t think it was going to be real issue (because I had a friend at Microsoft who said important parts were largely dealt with—had they not been dealt with, then it Would have been really serious).  But I think this Covid-19 *is* going to be a real issue.  Too much of horses already running around loose, and barn door is barely even pushed toward the closed position. 

 

So.......here is my Y2K story of preparing.   I was 20 months pregnant (ok, slight exaggeration, but it sure felt like it! 😁)   I had had a very difficult first delivery with Baby #1 which ended in a C-section.  I was offered the option of trying for a VBAC or scheduling a C-section.  I opted for a C-section.   He was due around January 1st, 2000.  My doctor was thrilled to schedule the baby before the Y2K deal.  So, for Y2K I had a newborn.  

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I used to have some freeze dried food when my boys would hike/backpack, but those are either eaten or tossed at this point.  They were Mountain something or other and good for 15 years.  I have often thought we should have a good month supply of emergency food on hand just in case, but I don't do it.

I looked through our freezer and pantry yesterday and we could probably survive for 2 weeks if we had to, it wouldn't be great because we would have to go without milk, eggs, bread, and produce for part of it, but we could survive, provided we had running water to drink.  We could use pool water to flush if we had to.  We used to live on a well and when the electricity went out, we didn't have a pump or water, so we had a good supply of drinking water and then got pool water for things like flushing toilets.  If we knew a storm was coming, we would fill all the bathtubs too for washing things or flushing.

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21 minutes ago, Paige said:

If Covid-19 has been in the states for 6 weeks and we don't have 10% of the population dropping like flies, does that mean we can relax a little and that it isn't going to be so virulent here? Or is 6 weeks not long enough to spread like that? I had thought with a quickly spreading virus and no containment efforts that it could spread rapidly.

I honestly don’t know.  Hoping for the best, preparing for the worst is never a bad idea, imo. Everyone’s going to have a different definition of “relaxing”.  I sure hope that doesn’t include giving more opportunity for it to pick up!

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And I am flying across the country on March 18th.  I hope I can still go.  One of my best friends is coming along and she has an auto-immune disease.  I worry mostly about her.  My other BFF is flying in from Kirkland, WA.  😳

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49 minutes ago, Paige said:

If Covid-19 has been in the states for 6 weeks and we don't have 10% of the population dropping like flies, does that mean we can relax a little and that it isn't going to be so virulent here? Or is 6 weeks not long enough to spread like that? I had thought with a quickly spreading virus and no containment efforts that it could spread rapidly.

The incubation period is up to two weeks with many carriers being asymptomatic. This is about the same gradual then very steep increase that China experienced. It’s probably what lulled them into a false sense of security.

Edited by Sneezyone
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43 minutes ago, Paige said:

If Covid-19 has been in the states for 6 weeks and we don't have 10% of the population dropping like flies, does that mean we can relax a little and that it isn't going to be so virulent here? Or is 6 weeks not long enough to spread like that? I had thought with a quickly spreading virus and no containment efforts that it could spread rapidly.

 

No. It does not mean you can relax. 

1) we don’t know how many cases there are because testing hasn’t been being done except in a limited way (Hawaii last I heard still had not tested anyone)

2) deaths may have happened but been attributed to something else because Covid-19 not tested for

3) mathematics of it:

3a) most people seem to start dying at around 3 weeks in— that means 3 weeks ago contract rate affects this week death rate significantly 

3b) when cases are doubling every ~3 days it takes a while for the numbers to build  also remember that symptoms may show up at 3 days to typically 12 days after transmission, but could be 28 days or longer till first symptoms 

1   Day 1 case 1

2 day 3

4 day 6

8 day 9

16  day 12

32  day 15

64     Day 18

*** 128  expected cases at day 21   / 3 weeks   (It’s this group we’d about now expect to be seeing the first deaths from at a rate of maybe 2% ) ***

256

512

1024

2048

4096   

8192    (gonna round off to easy numbers now and it would not be exact like that anyway) 

16,000   ~ 6 weeks ( but remember that most of these are just getting it today-ish would not be even showing any symptoms yet, and some may never show symptoms)   This could be number now around in USA undetected, but deaths from these cases won’t tend to show up until 3 more weeks from when they start getting sick with symptoms— right now the people catching it today are still just quietly incubating it and passing it to others!

32,000 ( and there may easily be that many - mostly undiscovered because not tested for and 80% mild or even asymptomatic)

64,000

128,000

256, 000 ~ 9 weeks ... If allowed to spread without efforts to slooooow it way down

512,000  3 days later

1,024,000 3 days later ... again, if people have the attitude that it’s no big deal and don’t take really really significant measures to sloppppw the spread way way down

2,000,000 rounding off again and leaving you to continue the doubling

at some point it has affected enough people that if it acts like a typical virus (and this one may not), the numbers start to naturally slow down if many people in community have developed immunity) 

 

No. It does not mean you can relax.  That’s a very big mistake.   But maybe you can more easily understand now from your own logic and feelings, how China could have failed to act soon enough. 

 

(ETA: doubling is perhaps nice in some situations, say an investment doing well, bad in others like viral spread ) 

 

Edited by Pen
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26 minutes ago, Paige said:

If Covid-19 has been in the states for 6 weeks and we don't have 10% of the population dropping like flies, does that mean we can relax a little and that it isn't going to be so virulent here? Or is 6 weeks not long enough to spread like that? I had thought with a quickly spreading virus and no containment efforts that it could spread rapidly.

Well, I think it is difficult to tell. Let's say it takes 6 days between contact and getting sick (just an estimate) so in 6 weeks there would be about 7 "generations". If we assume every patient infects two people that would be around 128 after 6 weeks. Obviously, that is a rough estimate - I think it would actually be a bit more, say 350 (slightly shorter infection and more contacts per person). And assuming that more "initial cases" are likely it would possibly be around 1500. If we assume that maybe 10% get seriously sick that would be 150. But a large number of the total would be more recently sick (as each "generation" has more patients) and if I am correct people are often only slightly sick for the first week or so - there may well be quite a number that got infected around 8 days ago and are just starting to be really sick. Given that there seems to be very little testing in the US and that many people who get seriously sick are older/have underlying conditions it seems likely that quite a number of deaths/hospitalizations might be attributed to regular flu/underlying problems.

So I think the fact that not that many deaths have occurred yet does not mean anything yet. There could well be several thousand infected with the same virulence as assumed. Of course this does not have to be true. It is too early to tell (especially without a lot more tests being run). We will know more in a couple of weeks.

 

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Quote

16,000   ~ 6 weeks ( but remember that most of these are just getting it today-ish would not be even showing any symptoms yet, and some may never show symptoms)   This could be number now around in USA undetected, but deaths from these cases won’t tend to show up until 3 more weeks from when they start getting sick with symptoms— right now the people catching it today are still just quietly incubating it and passing it to others!

 

On this model, for the mathematically likely current actual cases based on a doubling every 3 days, in about 1-6 weeks the ones who need hospital would be expected to start needing it, maybe around 3,000 people or so, but spread across many places in country still and especially concentrated in hot areas  like Washington, Oregon, and California (probably also Hawaii) .  Maybe 10- 30 will need intensive care. And some of those will die.    

But that too would have its own doubling.  

sSo while the expected hospital burden from today’s cases would still be quite manageable, it will become unmanageable, if nothing is done, if people become complacent.  Now, that said, some of us have already changed behavior in various ways.  For example,  I am still mostly doing ordinary life as I do it, but more carefully. My father (older with medical problems so vulnerable group—and a retired MD with additional public health degree and work background/ knowledge has already been isolating — not totally like in medical isolation ward, but staying at his own home and requesting extra sanitation from visitors — for several weeks)... 

Some others in this thread have already been using various precautions.

 

 

Social Distancing

 

 

or that new word Distantiate

 

 

My thoughts on coping

6 feet of separation as much as possible... 

wash hands! 

Dont touch face, especially around eyes, nose, mouth

change clothes when I get home , wash in hot with bleach

leave shoes outside in sun if possible and turn them so all sides get uv from sun  (or disinfect with bleach, or whatever

 

Edited by Pen
More Clarity , I hope
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So if you think your family might have the virus, what do you do?  Call the doctor and say, "Um I was in a crowded place in Chicago 8-9 days ago and now our whole family has had symptoms that sound like coronavirus.  And I just found out that the family we were meeting with at that time had a member spend a great deal of time in a crowded place near LA and they've all been sick too."  So even if the chance we have it is only 5-10%, there's still a chance.

No one is extremely sick...  the child with a heart defect has a lingering cough, the others are over it.  DH and I have worse than the sniffles.  I actually felt like I was getting pneumonia or at least bronchitis over the weekend but never had a fever.  I felt a lot better when I started piling in the medicines and supplements I read reduce cytokines (Alieve, herbs turmeric, ginger, and cinnamon, blueberries, I am repulsed by elderberries but DH is taking it).  I'm not 100% but I'm 70% back to normal, whereas yesterday I felt really sick.  I have a complicated medical history, diabetes that's usually controlled through diet, and doctors seem to disagree about whether I have lupus, but recently I've been pretty healthy.  Well except for the probably dozen colds we've had in the past year.

DH went to work.  He doesn't work with anyone high risk, and has promised to stay away from people as much as possible, but this isn't a week he can work from home. 

This is so strange.  It isn't like you have definite symptoms that would normally keep you home.  And it's not like there are unlimited tests available so I can't just walk into a lab and ask to be tested.  Many people don't even get a fever.  But this is so much more serious than a normal flu for older people that unless you're very conscientious you're probably going to spread it.  And while we don't know a lot of high risk people here, many people we know DO know high risk people.

Right now I'm SO relieved we live far away from the older family members who are at high risk. No one is going to drop in and surprise! spread this bug we have everywhere they go.

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13 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

 

On this model, for the mathematically likely current actual cases based on a doubling every 3 days, in about 1-5 weeks the ones who need hospital would be expected to be needing it, maybe around 3,000 people or so, but spread across many places in country still and especially concentrated in hot areas  like Washington, Oregon, and California (probably also Hawaii) .  Maybe 30 will need intensive care. And some of those will die.    

But that too would have its own doubling.  

sSo while the expected hospital burden from today’s cases would still be quite manageable, it will become unmanageable. 

 

Social Distancing

or that new word Distantiate

My thoughts on coping

6 feet of separation as much as possible... 

wash hands! 

Dont touch face, especially around eyes, nose, mouth

change clothes when I get home , wash in hot with bleach

leave shoes outside in sun if possible and turn them so all sides get uv from sun  (or disinfect with bleach, or whatever

 


This is what I’ve been saying and planning on from jump street. Those who need/want to work and can deliver my groceries to my door? GREAT!! MAKE THAT MONEY! I plan to spray or wipe errythang that comes into this house including my children. CLOSE YOUR EYES AND HOLD YOUR BREATH!! We had a family meeting about this that boiled down to, “Look, you are young. When you get the sniffles, Mom is laid out for a week. Unless you want to do all the cooking, cleaning, shopping and driving—oh wait, you can’t!— you will make sure I stay healthy. Here’s how...”

Edited by Sneezyone
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1 hour ago, Paige said:

If Covid-19 has been in the states for 6 weeks and we don't have 10% of the population dropping like flies, does that mean we can relax a little and that it isn't going to be so virulent here? Or is 6 weeks not long enough to spread like that? I had thought with a quickly spreading virus and no containment efforts that it could spread rapidly.

 

The first case in Wuhan was discovered on Dec. 1. I believe it is safe to say that the virus had been around for at least 2 weeks longer, but I'll ignore that for now. When this thread was started on January 24, China was reporting 800 cases and 25 deaths. That is 8 weeks from the first *known* case. (Of course, that is probably way lower than actual numbers. But today they are at 80,000 - 3 mos after initial case)

So I'll just echo others saying it is too soon to tell. We will know a lot more over the next 2-4 weeks. This seems to be a slow progressing disease - for the people who get very ill, it seems that doesn't happen until week 2-3 of the disease. It is often another 2 weeks later when a fatality is the outcome. On top of that we have essentially not been testing for covid19 until just a couple days ago.

I agree with what Pen said. It is easy to see why China was so slow to recognize the seriousness of the situation.

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7 minutes ago, Katy said:

So if you think your family might have the virus, what do you do?  Call the doctor and say, "Um I was in a crowded place in Chicago 8-9 days ago and now our whole family has had symptoms that sound like coronavirus.  And I just found out that the family we were meeting with at that time had a member spend a great deal of time in a crowded place near LA and they've all been sick too."  So even if the chance we have it is only 5-10%, there's still a chance.

No one is extremely sick...  the child with a heart defect has a lingering cough, the others are over it.  DH and I have worse than the sniffles.  I actually felt like I was getting pneumonia or at least bronchitis over the weekend but never had a fever.  I felt a lot better when I started piling in the medicines and supplements I read reduce cytokines (Alieve, herbs turmeric, ginger, and cinnamon, blueberries, I am repulsed by elderberries but DH is taking it).  I'm not 100% but I'm 70% back to normal, whereas yesterday I felt really sick.  I have a complicated medical history, diabetes that's usually controlled through diet, and doctors seem to disagree about whether I have lupus, but recently I've been pretty healthy.  Well except for the probably dozen colds we've had in the past year.

DH went to work.  He doesn't work with anyone high risk, and has promised to stay away from people as much as possible, but this isn't a week he can work from home. 

This is so strange.  It isn't like you have definite symptoms that would normally keep you home.  And it's not like there are unlimited tests available so I can't just walk into a lab and ask to be tested.  Many people don't even get a fever.  But this is so much more serious than a normal flu for older people that unless you're very conscientious you're probably going to spread it.  And while we don't know a lot of high risk people here, many people we know DO know high risk people.

Right now I'm SO relieved we live far away from the older family members who are at high risk. No one is going to drop in and surprise! spread this bug we have everywhere they go.

 

 

First, I think it depends where you live.  Most places aren’t ready to test still unless you have been to China, had contact with a known case, or similar .  But that is changing in a few places, and will start to change more widely soon I hope. 

 

Otherwise I think you do exactly what you said, you stay home if you possibly can. You avoid contact with people as much as possible.  While sick, if having to go out, work in essential services or whatever, that is possibly a good time for a mask to limit spread to others in case it is Covid-19. Or even if it isn’t. 

But maybe some or all work can be by phone or telecommunications or some remote way, and if so, do it from home.

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@Katy it might also be good to say something like I don’t think I have Covid, but I have a little something and in current circumstances it could be, so let’s keep our distance this week...   would depend on who he works we, I guess

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For anyone skeptical that we will feel the impact of coronavirus in the US, this summarizes all the reasons I'm seriously concerned--so many people needing to be hospitalized that our health care system is overwhelmed. According to this author (and I haven't tried to verify this figure) 0.9% of those infected with the flu in the US this year needed hospitalization. Compare that to 20% needing hospitalization with coronavirus. 

https://medium.com/@amwren/forget-about-the-death-rate-this-is-why-you-should-be-worried-about-the-coronavirus-890fbf9c4de6

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9 hours ago, Pen said:

 

People who could afford to stock up and had the space certainly did so.  Root cellars. Silos.  Stores of smoked meat and cheeses put up for the winter.  For examples.  Native Americans of my region smoked meats and fish and made pemmican afaik.   Etc.  

Ancient civilizations learned to store up grains. 

And the fact that Jews did not stock up with grains due to Passover requirements of purging all non Kosher matter meant that they had a lower risk of Bubonic plague which led to pogroms because they didn't get sick as much.

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We've talked mostly about physical preparation.

Can we talk more about emotional preparation? I'm feeling enormous grief at how so many people have suffered, and continued to suffer all over the world, from coronavirus. And I have anticipatory grief about what's to come in the US. I wish I could ask my grandparents what it was like for their families to live through the flu epidemic of 1918. 

I'm also afraid of losing family members in my parents' generation especially, my parents, inlaws, aunts and uncles. My girls haven't experienced losing a close family member yet--only great aunts or uncles they didn't really know, when they were younger. I feel like a weirdo with all this fear and grief because we are just fine right now. But I also think it's important to acknowledge and sit with my own feelings, especially if I need to help my girls and older relatives through things later. 

Trying to stay grounded, meditate, breathe, get outside, enjoy my people and my life.

I'm also reaching out to older family members, calling or sending cards, prioritizing keeping my girls connected with them. It shifts my daily priorities a bit, to think more immediately about suffering and mortality and loss. And hey, if it all blows over, I won't have so many errands to run for a while, and it's a beautiful thing to prioritize the elders in our family amidst the constant hustle and periodic crises of raising teens. 

Edited by Acadie
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30 minutes ago, Acadie said:

We've talked mostly about physical preparation.

Can we talk more about emotional preparation? I'm feeling enormous grief at how so many people have suffered, and continued to suffer all over the world, from coronavirus. And I have anticipatory grief about what's to come in the US. I wish I could ask my grandparents what it was like for their families to live through the flu epidemic of 1918. 

I'm also afraid of losing family members in my parents' generation especially, my parents, inlaws, aunts and uncles. My girls haven't experienced losing a close family member yet--only great aunts or uncles they didn't really know, when they were younger. I feel like a weirdo with all this fear and grief because we are just fine right now. But I also think it may be important for me to acknowledge and sit with my own feelings if I need to help my girls and older relatives through things later. 

Trying to stay grounded, meditate, breathe, get outside, enjoy my people and my life.

I'm also reaching out to older family members, calling or sending cards, prioritizing keeping my girls connected with them. It shifts my daily priorities a bit, to think more immediately about human suffering and mortality and loss. And hey, if it all blows over, I won't have so many errands to run for a while, and it's a beautiful thing to prioritize the elders in our family amidst the constant hustle and periodic crises of raising teens. 

 

I think what many people interpret in me as 'panic' has a lot to do with this. Those of us in the 40-50 range are at moderate risk but, mostly, risk losing our elders--all of those people who've filled my memories of childhood and adolescence with joy, those people who've provided guidance and support in my adulthood. It feels way too soon. That is what I fear. It's not a secret that many adults in the black community disproportionately suffer from diabetes, high blood pressure, and other pernicious conditions. To random folks, these are "underlying" or "preexisting" conditions. When the 50yo in WA died, one of my FB friends, said...did he have preexisting conditions? As if that makes the death more timely or justified. To me, these are normal conditions and people survive for years with them. Having a novel flu virus take them out in large numbers would be devatstating.

Edited by Sneezyone
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10 hours ago, popmom said:

Well now that I think about it, I think there has to be an official state of emergency declared for price gouging to be illegal. Maybe someone else can clarify. ETA: I double checked. In my state there must be a state of emergency declared before this can be enforced. Oh, well. I hope nobody buys his wares.

That's one reason why Florida's governor declared a state of emergency now that we have two presumptive cases. Florida's price gouging laws are officially in effect when the emergency is declared.

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36 minutes ago, Acadie said:

For anyone skeptical that we will feel the impact of coronavirus in the US, this summarizes all the reasons I'm seriously concerned--so many people needing to be hospitalized that our health care system is overwhelmed. According to this author (and I haven't tried to verify this figure) 0.9% of those infected with the flu in the US this year needed hospitalization. Compare that to 20% needing hospitalization with coronavirus. 

https://medium.com/@amwren/forget-about-the-death-rate-this-is-why-you-should-be-worried-about-the-coronavirus-890fbf9c4de6

Every day that passes brings us one day closer to springtime in the Northern hemisphere.  That might be a huge game changer.  The fact that most of us don't live in a packed city like Wuhan (11 million citizens) might also alter outcomes significantly.

I'm not exactly skeptical; I just don't think it will play out in the same way.  If it's bad, it's bad.  We can only *do* so much.

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I did talk with my great-grandparents about the pandemic in 1918 and about quarantines. Even my parents lived through quarantines for measles.

One thing my great-grandparents and grandparents consistently said was that death was more common then. Antibiotics and insulin weren’t really available, and most mothers had either lost a child or had had a sibling lose one. Death was very much more a part of life.

My great-grandparents and some of my grandparents had passed on before I lost my own daughter to cancer. There is a generational gap on perspectives in death. No one my age knew what to say to me, and kept me at arm’s length unless they themselves had had a sibling/child/niece/nephew etc die. 

Statisticslly, it will be mostly older people who died with covid-19, but there will be some out-of-time (generationally) deaths. I am hoping I am not one of them. My own kids are struggling with that fear. 

My own elderly relatives aren’t concerned at all. I have brought it up lightly in conversation and got the “just the flu” response. *sigh*

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7 minutes ago, Thatboyofmine said:

Ds18 (type one diabetic) just got dx’d with flu type A this morning.  He was sick with a bad cold 2 weeks ago and now the flu.   His immune system is struggling right now. I don’t know if he could fight covid  off right now.      For y’all who pray, please say a prayer for him, please.      .      

Praying for your boy right now.  ❤️

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5 minutes ago, DoraBora said:

Every day that passes brings us one day closer to springtime in the Northern hemisphere.  That might be a huge game changer.  The fact that most of us don't live in a packed city like Wuhan (11 million citizens) might also alter outcomes significantly.

I'm not exactly skeptical; I just don't think it will play out in the same way.  If it's bad, it's bad.  We can only *do* so much.

 

There is no evidence to suggest that a novel virus like this will stop spreading in warmer weather. It is currently spreading in southern China, Hong Kong, Singapore, South America and Africa where temps are already warmer. It is true that we can more easily maintain social distance in rural areas. I can confine my children at home and be far enough away from others to prevent spread. Most people, however, do live in more densely packed areas just not as packed as China or Korea or Japan.

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6 minutes ago, Sneezyone said:

 

I think what many people interpret in me as 'panic' has a lot to do with this. Those of us in the 40-50 range are at moderate risk but, mostly, risk losing our elders--all of those people who've filled my memories of childhood and adolescence with joy, those people who've provided guidance and support in my adulthood. It feels way too soon. That is what I fear. It's not a secret that many adults in the black community disproportionately suffer from diabetes, high blood pressure, and other pernicious conditions. To random folks, these are "underlying" or "preexisting" conditions. To me, they're normal and people servive for years with them. Having a novel flu virus take them out in large numbers would be devatstating.

This.  I have been living at least 37 years with a pre-existing condition.  My youngest has lived 20 years with one so far.  Etc, etc, etc,

And what is even worse is what I heard last night on tv,  A person saying that the underlying or pre-existing conditions are preventable,  First of all, we know that conditions like asthma, diabetes type 1, and  sarcoidosis are definitely not preventable-   they are all autoimmune and we have no idea how to prevent them and autoimmunity is at least partially genetic.  Secondly, cardiovascular diseases also often totally unpreventable-- being caused by genetics or by prior or comorbid diseases.  Lastly, as humans, we know so little about medicine (and everything else) that you have to be uncaring, arrogant, and ignorant to even start saying garbage like that statement above.  it is similar to the sentiment that the poor are poor because they don't want to change or do the right thing.   These issues are so difficult and easy answers are generally wrong.

 

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9 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

I did talk with my great-grandparents about the pandemic in 1918 and about quarantines. Even my parents lived through quarantines for measles.

One thing my great-grandparents and grandparents consistently said was that death was more common then. Antibiotics and insulin weren’t really available, and most mothers had either lost a child or had had a sibling lose one. Death was very much more a part of life.

My great-grandparents and some of my grandparents had passed on before I lost my own daughter to cancer. There is a generational gap on perspectives in death. No one my age knew what to say to me, and kept me at arm’s length unless they themselves had had a sibling/child/niece/nephew etc die. 

Statisticslly, it will be mostly older people who died with covid-19, but there will be some out-of-time (generationally) deaths. I am hoping I am not one of them. My own kids are struggling with that fear. 

My own elderly relatives aren’t concerned at all. I have brought it up lightly in conversation and got the “just the flu” response. *sigh*

My son and one daughter are doing that too.  My other daughter has basically spent the last 2 years with her head in the sand to try to prevent her overwhelming anxiety from taking over.  We were all together out at a late small dinner Saturday night and she didn't want to hear but all of the rest of us (except her dh who was busy eating) were remarking that it is flu precautions.

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6 hours ago, Laura Corin said:

There's a case in my county or the next one over (health issues are announced in Scotland by health administration area) - someone who returned from Italy.  I'm washing my hands carefully and carrying on with my life.

That's what I'm doing. I'm not stocking up on anything nor have I seen any cleared shelves in my area. Even now with 2 cases in my state (though not near here) people are just going about their lives but being more careful about hand washing and such.

4 hours ago, StellaM said:

 

 And I'm not so sure people were quite so phlegmatic about, say, polio as you suggest.

 

You're correct. I was among the first group of school children to receive the oral polio vaccine. We were given sugar cubes at school. People were quite concerned about polio and very hopeful about the vaccine. There was no complacency, no "oh well, people die" attitude. 

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4 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I’m not sure how old your son is but does it help to remember that the risk level for anyone under 40 is really low as far as we know?  

considering Dr. Li  (one of the eight drs who broke the news of this virus at new years) was 34 -is the risk level for those under 40 really as low as is claimed?

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26 minutes ago, DoraBora said:

Every day that passes brings us one day closer to springtime in the Northern hemisphere.  That might be a huge game changer.  The fact that most of us don't live in a packed city like Wuhan (11 million citizens) might also alter outcomes significantly.

I'm not exactly skeptical; I just don't think it will play out in the same way.  If it's bad, it's bad.  We can only *do* so much.

we might not be as densely packed, but we're still in cities with higher numbers.  in my areas, it's spreading.  it's not just the totem lake area of Kirkland (where the hospital with the deaths is. and the nursing home is. - and there were nursing students there, so their school has now been shut down.),  - it's 30 minutes south of there with patients hospitalized and schools closed for disinfecting.

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I can't help but worry about my parents and especially my Dad. He is over 80 and has some pre-existing health problems. They are in the UK and the other thing that makes me sad is that, if there is a major outbreak and they do catch it, I may well not be able to get over there from the USA to see them. 

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I am  a bit shocked actually as I have always thought that the CDC is the best there is as far as disease/epidemic prevention etc. and so far I am not impressed. Mostly, I don't understand why there is no more testing . I know there were issues with the first batch of test kits but other countries don't seem to have as many problems with this.  It is easy claiming that the US is doing great with disease prevention if you do not find any sick people due to a lack of tests (at least for a while).

I just read on CNN that there have been 23 tests in total in Florida. Given the large number of international tourists to the state and the high percentage of older people that seems ridiculous. Apparently, one of the 23 (actually 17 as 6 tests are not finished yet) is someone without travel history...

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27 minutes ago, Sneezyone said:

There is no evidence to suggest that a novel virus like this will stop spreading in warmer weather. It is currently spreading in southern China, Hong Kong, Singapore, South America and Africa where temps are already warmer. It is true that we can more easily maintain social distance in rural areas. I can confine my children at home and be far enough away from others to prevent spread. Most people, however, do live in more densely packed areas just not as packed as China or Korea or Japan.

Is it spreading as quickly in these warmer regions as it has in Wuhan? 

I'm not advocating putting one's head in the sand.  I'm really agreeing that we just don't know what will happen (and trying to take a slightly more hopeful stance).

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4 minutes ago, DoraBora said:

Is it spreading as quickly in these warmer regions as it has in Wuhan? 

I'm not advocating putting one's head in the sand.  I'm really agreeing that we just don't know what will happen (and trying to take a slightly more hopeful stance).

 

We do not yet know as the incubation period is so long. It only takes one initial introduction and the n several weeks after that for it to spread. If the middle east is any indication, which I can assure you is already hot as Hades in March (OK, I kid, but definitely in the 70s-80s), heat has zero impact.

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17 minutes ago, gardenmom5 said:

we might not be as densely packed, but we're still in cities with higher numbers.  in my areas, it's spreading.  it's not just the totem lake area of Kirkland (where the hospital with the deaths is. and the nursing home is. - and there were nursing students there, so their school has now been shut down.),  - it's 30 minutes south of there with patients hospitalized and schools closed for disinfecting.

I live in a city of a little over 1 million people, but I don't live in a high-rise.  Most citizens in my city live a little further apart.  Yes, I know it's spreading, but I am hopeful that the differences between our large cities and a place like Wuhan will mean the transmission is slower.  It's also possible that warmer weather (not the warm weather of the tropics) might improve our outcomes.

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Local grocery report: (Semi-rural area with lots of city commuters and tourist destinations.) Walmart grocery pick up can’t give me rubbing alcohol. Boxed milk is marked out of stock. Canned roast beef is also marked out of stock. Peroxide is not.No Lysol products are marked OOS. That doesn’t mean they aren’t (alcohol wasn’t marked OOS when I placed my order.). Gloves are mixed, so I’m not sure what to make of that. Loop masks aren’t marked OOS, but I fully believe they are because I couldn’t get them 2 times last month.

Anyway, I couldn’t get more boxed milk or rubbing alcohol.

No issues with my regular grocery stuff.

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This morning a local radio host said that he had a source telling him that a mobile morgue will be brought to the nursing home in Kirkland. 

It was frightening to hear that, especially after seeing a story on the local news last night about a woman visiting her mother who is a patient there.  The woman traveled to get there and didn't think she'd be allowed to go in, but they gave her a mask and she was able to see her mother.   Obviously I can understand family members wanting to visit, but I had heard that no visitors were being allowed in because of the outbreak.  So how will they keep the virus from spreading if they're already straying from the no visitors policy?  And it makes me wonder what's the deal with masks...the drs. are now telling people that masks aren't really adequate protection so healthy people shouldn't wear them???   (Will they still say that when the store shelves are filled again with masks? ) 

 The woman said she expected to hear a lot of coughing inside the nursing home  but instead it was quiet.   

https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/kirkland-nursing-facility-ground-zero-king-countys-fight-against-coronavirus/6EUXFBWWEJANHDDQPSO5TESXZU/

Edited by Laurie
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2 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

Local grocery report: (Semi-rural area with lots of city commuters and tourist destinations.) Walmart grocery pick up can’t give me rubbing alcohol. Boxed milk is marked out of stock. Canned roast beef is also marked out of stock. Peroxide is not.No Lysol products are marked OOS. That doesn’t mean they aren’t (alcohol wasn’t marked OOS when I placed my order.). Gloves are mixed, so I’m not sure what to make of that. Loop masks aren’t marked OOS, but I fully believe they are because I couldn’t get them 2 times last month.

Anyway, I couldn’t get more boxed milk or rubbing alcohol.

No issues with my regular grocery stuff.

In my area, I bought what was left (not much) of the boxed milk on Saturday.  I went to a different store today and none.

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15 minutes ago, DoraBora said:

I live in a city of a little over 1 million people, but I don't live in a high-rise.  Most citizens in my city live a little further apart.  Yes, I know it's spreading, but I am hopeful that the differences between our large cities and a place like Wuhan will mean the transmission is slower.  It's also possible that warmer weather (not the warm weather of the tropics) might improve our outcomes.

 

What are you defining the tropics? Literally, most of the late summer in the southern US is hot and humid. If you're looking for a silver lining, that's not it. It mirrors conditions in a Bahraini spring.

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15 minutes ago, Laurie said:

This morning a local radio host said that he had a source telling him that a mobile morgue will be brought to the nursing home in Kirkland. 

It was frightening to hear that, especially after seeing a story on the local news last night about a woman visiting her mother who is a patient there.  The woman traveled to get there and didn't think she'd be allowed to go in, but they gave her a mask and she was able to see her mother.   Obviously I can understand family members wanting to visit, but I had heard that no visitors were being allowed in because of the outbreak.  So how will they keep the virus from spreading if they're already straying from the no visitors policy?  And it makes me wonder what's the deal with masks...the drs. are now telling people that masks aren't really adequate protection so healthy people shouldn't wear them???   (Will they still say that when the store shelves are filled again with masks? ) 

 The woman said she expected to hear a lot of coughing inside the nursing home  but instead it was quiet.   

https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/kirkland-nursing-facility-ground-zero-king-countys-fight-against-coronavirus/6EUXFBWWEJANHDDQPSO5TESXZU/

her mother didn't have it.

not the same treatment as the woman who tried to visit her husband (who had a cough the last time she talked to him) - and struggled to even get people to pick up the phone, and no one would give her information about how he was doing  when they did.

 

- and there is now at least one patient at valley medical, and hazen high school is closed. - so that's the south end of lake Washington.  (for comparison, evergreen is nearer the north end.  the lake is 22 miles long.   

and a USPS worker has it . . 

Edited by gardenmom5
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1 hour ago, Sneezyone said:

What are you defining the tropics? Literally, most of the late summer in the southern US is hot and humid. If you're looking for a silver lining, that's not it. It mirrors conditions in a Bahraini spring.

I have lived in the southern US (TX and GA) my entire life, so I know hot and humid.  I don't know Bahrain's level of preparedness, so I can't know how the spread has going for them or whether it will continue.

And now, I need to go to the food pantry for my Monday shift, so I can't continue to try to point out that past performance doesn't guarantee future results, as the financial products folks say.

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