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8 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

@kirklandgov

confirms with

@KIRO7Seattle

that "several" fire crews are in home quarantine following contact w/ two #coronavirus patients at Life Care Center. Those crews will be out of the mix for at least 14 days.


2mins news clip

 

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53 minutes ago, MissLemon said:

It's not the number of deaths that has me concerned.  It's that 18% of the currently infected people are considered serious/critical and need hospitalization. You don't see those sort of numbers with the flu. Less than 2% of diagnosed flu cases require hospitalization. 

How does anybody actually know these numbers? They can only be guesses because nobody knows how many mild cases there are where the person does not suspect they have this virus and does not seek medical attention.  They won't get diagnosed if they just think they have some respiratory bug and don't go to the doctor for their cough or fever. There could be many more infected people and we just have no clue. Which would then of course reduce the above percentage.

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3 minutes ago, regentrude said:

How does anybody actually know these numbers? They can only be guesses because nobody knows how many mild cases there are where the person does not suspect they have this virus and does not seek medical attention.  They won't get diagnosed if they just think they have some respiratory bug and don't go to the doctor for their cough or fever. There could be many more infected people and we just have no clue. Which would then of course reduce the above percentage.

I've been thinking about statistics a lot, lately, and I am really more of a liberal arts person. It seems that there are an awful lot of unknowns and possible confounding factors.

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16 minutes ago, regentrude said:

How does anybody actually know these numbers? They can only be guesses because nobody knows how many mild cases there are where the person does not suspect they have this virus and does not seek medical attention.  They won't get diagnosed if they just think they have some respiratory bug and don't go to the doctor for their cough or fever. There could be many more infected people and we just have no clue. Which would then of course reduce the above percentage.

True, there are likely many more cases that do not require any sort of medical care. And who knows if we'll ever get real numbers from China or Iran. 

I'm not an infectious disease expert, so I have no idea of the methods they use to estimate how many potential cases we could be looking at.  I'm just going off the numbers for influenza off the CDC website and the current stats on COVID-19 from worldometers.info.  Current info is that 18% of the cases that have been officially diagnosed are considered serious/critical. Even if there are thousands more cases that are very minor and never receive a formal diagnosis, 18% of the ones that do get a diagnosis end up very, very sick. 

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32 minutes ago, regentrude said:

How does anybody actually know these numbers? They can only be guesses because nobody knows how many mild cases there are where the person does not suspect they have this virus and does not seek medical attention.  They won't get diagnosed if they just think they have some respiratory bug and don't go to the doctor for their cough or fever. There could be many more infected people and we just have no clue. Which would then of course reduce the above percentage.

According to WHO this is not the case in Hubei due to their door to door temperature check.  Whether or not you accept that as fact is another thing but that’s what they stated.  In Italy on the other hand they are excluding asymptomatic cases so we can assume the death/hospitalisation rate is lower than it seems.  In South Korea where they are testing widely we can also get a more accurate idea.  Plus the cruise ship passengers however they are possibly an older demographic so not 100pc representative either.

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10 minutes ago, MissLemon said:

True, there are likely many more cases that do not require any sort of medical care. And who knows if we'll ever get real numbers from China or Iran. 

I'm not an infectious disease expert, so I have no idea of the methods they use to estimate how many potential cases we could be looking at.  I'm just going off the numbers for influenza off the CDC website and the current stats on COVID-19 from worldometers.info.  Current info is that 18% of the cases that have been officially diagnosed are considered serious/critical. Even if there are thousands more cases that are very minor and never receive a formal diagnosis, 18% of the ones that do get a diagnosis end up very, very sick. 


South Korea are doing massive testing. Their data would be useful

Mar 1st report https://is.cdc.go.kr/upload_comm/syview/doc.html?fn=158305007349300.pdf&rs=/upload_comm/docu/0030/

CDC Korea https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030

 

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45 minutes ago, regentrude said:

How does anybody actually know these numbers? They can only be guesses because nobody knows how many mild cases there are where the person does not suspect they have this virus and does not seek medical attention.  They won't get diagnosed if they just think they have some respiratory bug and don't go to the doctor for their cough or fever. There could be many more infected people and we just have no clue. Which would then of course reduce the above percentage.

Most people infected with COVID-19 virus have mild disease and recover. Approximately 80% of laboratory confirmed patients have had mild to moderate disease, which includes non-pneumonia and pneumonia cases, 13.8% have severe disease (dyspnea, respiratory frequency ≥30/minute, blood oxygen saturation ≤93%, PaO2/FiO2 ratio <300, and/or lung infiltrates >50% of the lung field within 24-48 hours) and 6.1% are critical (respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure). Asymptomatic infection has been reported, but the majority of the relatively rare cases who are asymptomatic on the date of identification/report went on to develop disease. The proportion of truly asymptomatic infections is unclear but appears to be relatively rare and does not appear to be a major driver of transmission.
Individuals at highest risk for severe disease and death include people aged over 60 years and those with underlying conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease and cancer. Disease in children appears to be relatively rare and mild with approximately 2.4% of the total reported cases reported amongst individuals aged under 19 years. A very small proportion of those aged under 19 years have developed severe (2.5%) or critical disease (0.2%).
As of 20 February, 2114 of the 55,924 laboratory confirmed cases have died (crude fatality ratio [CFR2] 3.8%) (note: at least some of whom were identified using a case definition that included pulmonary disease). The overall CFR varies by location and intensity of transmission (i.e. 5.8% in Wuhan vs. 0.7% in other areas in China). In China, the overall CFR was higher in the early stages of the outbreak (17.3% for cases with symptom onset from 1- 10 January) and has reduced over time to 0.7% for patients with symptom onset after 1 February (Figure 4). The Joint Mission noted that the standard of care has evolved over the course of the outbreak.
Mortality increases with age, with the highest mortality among people over 80 years of age (CFR 21.9%). The CFR is higher among males compared to females (4.7% vs. 2.8%). By occupation, patients who reported being retirees had the highest CFR at 8.9%. While patients who reported no comorbid conditions had a CFR of 1.4%, patients with comorbid conditions had much higher rates: 13.2% for those with cardiovascular disease, 9.2% for diabetes, 8.4% for hypertension, 8.0% for chronic respiratory disease, and 7.6% for cancer.
 

this is from the joint China-WHO report.  

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57 minutes ago, regentrude said:

How does anybody actually know these numbers? They can only be guesses because nobody knows how many mild cases there are where the person does not suspect they have this virus and does not seek medical attention.  They won't get diagnosed if they just think they have some respiratory bug and don't go to the doctor for their cough or fever. There could be many more infected people and we just have no clue. Which would then of course reduce the above percentage.

Also this is true for flu percentages etc I guess.  We had a nasty bug go round a couple of years ago that knocked a few families out of our church for a bit.  One lady who had mostly the same symptoms tested positive for influenza a because she actually went to the dr.  

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Sounds positive

Global Times: A makeshift hospital in Qiaokou district, Wuhan city, closed on March 1 after the last 34 patients were cured and discharged. It is the first makeshift hospital to close in the coronavirus-stricken city as the situation gradually improves.

Edited by Ausmumof3
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My 14 year old is sick.  She didn’t even want dinner, so I know she’s really sick.  It looked sudden; you could see her wilt while she was eating lunch, though she said she wasn’t feeling great beforehand.  She’s on the ASD spectrum and although incredibly verbal, she can’t describe symptoms.  She has her “sick look” though.  No cough or anything.  I’m worried, not so much about Coronavirus as by reduced immunity if she is fighting off this bug (and for the rest of us, trying not to catch it/ immune systems working to fight it).  

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9 hours ago, pitterpatter said:

 

Yes, I'm sure the people who have reasons to be worried are the most worried. People's perspectives are going to be based a lot on what stage of life they are in and how vulnerable their loved ones are. If I were young, completely healthy, and in college, I'm sure my mindset would be very different than it is now. As previously posted, my early 40s DH is high-risk. His job requires a lot of local traveling, so that puts him at an even higher risk. We aren't looking for him to be a statistic of something that will likely be able to be at least somewhat controlled months down the road. At least with the flu, he can get an immunization to help protect him. There's virtually nothing to protect anyone right now. People need to develop compassion for those who are vulnerable. Most aren't done living their lives yet. They're not sitting around waiting to die. They're functioning members of families and society.

It bothers me that people who aren’’t high risk are told not to worry.  My household is pretty low-risk. I do have some minor concerns (compared to the big, obvious ones), but we’re likely fine. However, we do know lots of higher risk people. And the low risk people we know know higher risk people. And so on and so forth.  If I can be contagious for god knows how long before getting sick (if even), I want to spare other people serious issues!!!

It’s awful that so many people in the US *can’t just stay home. It makes me feel like those of us who do have choices should make them more carefully. Some people in my house do have things they have to go out and do. We don’t have to add to that just because of it.

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Reading the stat. above that they expect 40% to develop this I went searching for more stats, from what I read here even in the epicenter only .11% contracted the virus and rates are now falling. Even assuming China is likely lying and it is many times higher it still is not close to even approaching 10% but maybe I'm missing something.

I aim to always keep a somewhat stocked pantry and freezer but am more conscious of things I'm low on and need to get right now but don't plan on prepper stocking. I am feeling more aware of hygiene when out or trying to be. It is hard to separate the facts from speculation out there. 

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Hand sanitiser was sold out at the grocery and pharmacy today that dh went to.  Chemist recommended going to rural areas to source some.  I already have a bit so we are all good but obviously the prep mode is kicking in here.   A few people were talking about buying some extra basics.

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1 hour ago, Carrie12345 said:

It bothers me that people who aren’’t high risk are told not to worry.  My household is pretty low-risk. I do have some minor concerns (compared to the big, obvious ones), but we’re likely fine. However, we do know lots of higher risk people. And the low risk people we know know higher risk people. And so on and so forth.  If I can be contagious for god knows how long before getting sick (if even), I want to spare other people serious issues!!!

Worrying isn't going to do any good. The biggest danger I see is panic. When hospitals have to ration face masks for their surgeons because people are hoarding them, even though they are largely ineffective for a healthy person, we have reached an unreasonable point of worry. I think the best message is to be prudent, but not to worry. Worrying and anxiety lead to irrational behavior.

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12 minutes ago, regentrude said:

Worrying isn't going to do any good. The biggest danger I see is panic. When hospitals have to ration face masks for their surgeons because people are hoarding them, even though they are largely ineffective for a healthy person, we have reached an unreasonable point of worry. I think the best message is to be prudent, but not to worry. Worrying and anxiety lead to irrational behavior.

Worry. Concern. Attention. Care. Prudent. Whatever word makes you feel better about the intent. Surely you know I didn’t mean running around like a chicken with its head cut off.

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1 minute ago, Carrie12345 said:

Worry. Concern. Attention. Care. Prudent. Whatever word makes you feel better about the intent. Surely you know I didn’t mean running around like a chicken with its head cut off.

But that is exactly what people are doing. So any words aimed at calming them down are good. Like telling folks not to worry.

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2 minutes ago, regentrude said:

But that is exactly what people are doing. So any words aimed at calming them down are good. Like telling folks not to worry.

I haven’t seen any reports of that.

I have seen people continue to post all over the internet that this is all a BS cold that won’t affect them in any meaningful way.

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High risk household here.  Four with immune issues and asthma - 2 kids, elderly parent living with us, and me.  No panic here. But awareness. We have food and Rx meds topped up.  I did not panic buy water, but we always have some for basic preparedness after going on a boil-notice a few years ago. We do not have masks.

Still living normal life (going to a con today, even).  Though ... I am contemplating  having one member attempt to cancel a mandatory trip to a conference overseas.  

We are in a suburb of DC.

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26 minutes ago, Spryte said:

Still living normal life (going to a con today, even).  Though ... I am contemplating  having one member attempt to cancel a mandatory trip to a conference overseas.  

We are in a suburb of DC.

 

Bolded. How sad for that family member that the trip to an overseas conference is mandatory.  Many conferences have been cancelled, both within the USA and overseas.  Arranging them can take several years and if they are cancelled, it is probably forever. Just as many conventions in the San Francisco Bay area have been cancelled in the past year or so, because of Health and Crime issues, to force someone (let us assume that person is an employee) to attend a conference, is not a good thing for management to do.

We live in Cali, Colombia and to the best of my knowledge and belief as of this time there haven't been any cases of the Corona Virus reported in Colombia, but I suspect that's a matter of time. I read last night that a case had been reported in Ecuador, which is just South of us. 

Travel plans for Summer 2020 have been changed here because of the Corona Virus outbreak and if DD or DW and I travel, it will be within the USA or here in Colombia. The idea of a trip DD was contemplating to China was cancelled in January 2020. And then to some other countries, including Japan.

I hope your family member will be able to cancel that trip without jeopardizing their job.

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Thanks, Lanny.  It’s being monitored, and I’m about 75% sure that my family member will be home, rather than on a flight. He’s in close contact with the CEO, and they are making decisions about canceling the event altogether, but trying to balance international business relationships with some tricky clients.  It’s just going to be a last minute “official” decision, I think.  Fingers crossed.

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8 hours ago, Patty Joanna said:
You probably read about the first US death at a facility located in WA.  In case you are interested in knowing more, read on.  If not, save yourself the 5 minutes you will never get back.  .  
 
The facility where the death occurred is less than half a mile from my house.  I am familiar with it because we have had parishioners who have been there for rehab--and they left as soon as possible.  It is not a good facility.  My MIL was assigned by her insurance company to go there for rehab after a 6 week hospital stay and my husband raised a complete ruckus about it--and got her into a "C" facility, which was a lot better than this one.  
 
It seems like CoronaVirus affects people in different ways.  The health-compromised are at a much greater risk...and that is exactly who is in a health care facility--the vulnerable--and this is not a top-quality facility.  That it happened at THIS facility is really not a shock.  
 
No one mentions another WA CoronaVirus case who recovered--he was  a younger person, he went to the hospital and he got better.  That case was within 10 miles of my house.  
 
The thing that is most difficult in this situation is that we don't know who to believe about what is going on.  The reports out of Kirkland today are very confusing--"not many cases in the state" and "27 people infected at this facility alone".  Both of these things can't be true.  And the reports out of China?  Seriously?  
 
One of my friends is an expert in global infectious disease.  He's worked with the ebola virus in Africa.  He's pointed out that in the same time frame, 30,000 Americans have died of the flu, and 3,000 people worldwide have died of coronavirus.  Even if the reports of deaths are off by an order of magnitude--which they may be--that is still a big difference.  His other point is that there is a lot to be said for risk management.
 
Wash your hands.  Carry wipes in your car--gas pumps are among the germiest things you can touch.  Don't touch escalator rails if you can help it.  Use your knuckle to press elevator buttons.  Don't touch your face--especially your eyes or mouth.  Stop biting your nails.  Wash your hands again.  :0 That is what my infectious-disease friend says.  
 
And don't think it is outlandish to assume that panic is good for the monetary gain of certain people and organizations. Use common sense.  Stock up on all the things you need when you get sick--gatorade, ibuprofen, food-enough so you can eat for a couple of weeks.  "Stocking up" means coverage for a couple of weeks, not the apocalypse. 
 
That's my 2 cents from "ground zero." 
 
Patty Joanna--who is in the "health compromised" category, and not panicking.  :0)

 

I am not sure if I should put this or not, because I think “not panicking “ would be really important and can’t possibly help.

I think you are doing the right things to do, and extra worry can bring down immune systems itself , so please do not.  

However, I am concerned that you might be passing on wrong information.  Or information that sounds reassuring but which if true would be very alarming.

 I think either your friend the Ebola etc expert was wrong in what he told you or else there has been a huge recent uptick in deaths attribute to flu recently which would greatly concern me , as perhaps it would be an indication of Covid-19 community spread — comorbid with flu such that the enormous recent uptick (if there is one) would be attributable to flu.  I think it more likely that your friend was wrong or that something was misunderstood.

I was not able to get on the CDC site to access their figures directly to get their figures both to verify the information bolded by me in quote below, nor to see the figures for the period since January 18. 

https://www.contagionlive.com/news/us-flu-cases-climb-to-15-million-with-54-pediatric-deaths-recorded-in-201920-season

Quote:

JAN 29, 2020 | MICHAELA FLEMING
 
 
Influenza activity in the United States has once more started to increase after falling during the first 2 weeks of 2020.

The latest FluView surveillance from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that as of January 18, 2020, there have been 15 million cases of flu, 140,000 hospitalizations, and 8200 deaths in the US this influenza season.

Although the agency is reporting that flu activity is high at this point in the season, severity markers, which include hospitalization and death, are not considered high at this time.

The percentage of specimens that tested positive for the flu at clinical laboratories over the past week jumped from 23.4% to 25.6%. Additionally, the number of US jurisdictions experiencing high influenza-like illness (ILI) activity increased from 34 to 37.

Outpatient ILI activity and laboratory data increased nationally, and B/Victoria viruses are considered the predominant virus this season; however, some regions are seeing increases in the proportion of A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses.

Hospitalization rates are considered low overall and are historically consistent with past years at this point in the flu season. Over the past week, the seasonal hospitalization rate increased to 24.1 per 100,000. On the other hand, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza decreased from 7.1% to 6.7%.

This week’s report notes that more than 50% of positive test results for influenza from public health laboratories have been in young people under the age of 25 years. Only 12% of positive results have been in patients 65 years and older, which could explain the high levels of ILI and lower levels of hospitalization and influenza-related death. Although, flu can lead to severe disease and even death in children.

In fact, last week an additional 15 pediatric influenza deaths were reported, bringing the seasonal total to 54. Influenza B viruses were linked to 37 of the 54 deaths. FluView surveillance notes that 7 of the B virus-related deaths had their lineage determined and were all B/Victoria viruses. Of the 17 deaths associated with A viruses, 10 were subtyped and found to be A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses
Edited by Pen
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I know other countries, like South Korea, are way ahead of us on testing for coronavirus. But I'm trying to figure out if any country has developed a reliable bedside test for clinicians to use. Has anyone found a source you could link on this? My Google search didn't turn up anything. 

Edited by Acadie
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@Patty Joanna It is possible that your friend was guesstimating upward based on what he assumes is under reporting of deaths.  But I think if we do that with US influenza deaths instead of using official numbers, then we had better also do that with the worldwide Covid-19 numbers.  China probably has had at least 10 times what they report and North Korea has been reported burning bodies in high numbers also as viewed from South Korea. 

Perhaps it should also be mentioned to your friend that the influenza season over which these deaths have occurred (so a drawn out situation that hospitals are generally equipped and sized to handle) is much longer than the time that Covid-19 has come to world attention and been being monitored. 

Here’s the most recent http://CDC.gov report—showing 18,000 as the CDC’s own estimate:

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 32 million flu illnesses, 310,000 hospitalizations and 18,000 deaths from flu

Edited by Pen
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So with a 3% fatality rate, if we had the same number of confirmed Covid-19 as flu, we'd expect about 450,000 deaths instead of the almost 9,000 we had with flu. Edit (or 18,000 with the updated numbers but I based the 450000 deaths on the 15000000 cases that were posted earlier; double that for the new numbers).

I think there's still a significant chance it won't spread so widely in the US, or at least not until there are better treatments, but there's no benefit to not being ready. If it's not this virus, it will be another, because globally we are due. I think it's good if people are doing the disaster planning that the CDC and Ready.gov have been telling us to do for years.

Edited by Paige
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7 hours ago, regentrude said:

How does anybody actually know these numbers? They can only be guesses because nobody knows how many mild cases there are where the person does not suspect they have this virus and does not seek medical attention.  They won't get diagnosed if they just think they have some respiratory bug and don't go to the doctor for their cough or fever. There could be many more infected people and we just have no clue. Which would then of course reduce the above percentage.

They are based on a large scale report done around patients in China. Let me see if I can find the link and add it. (ETA: I think this is the summary of the Chinese CDC... it's the report that shows that there were no deaths of young children, that men are more vulnerable than women, and some specific rates for specific risks. I'm sure these will evolve, but it is real data and not pure guesswork.) 

Additionally, I read that epidemiologists who are on the ground initially thought that it might be an iceberg situation - that there might be more mild cases so the numbers might be skewed, but they are saying that does not appear to be the case. I'll look for that citation as well because I read that yesterday. (ETA: Okay, clearly I read too much about the virus yesterday because I know I saw this in an article yesterday, in part because it surprised me a little, but I can't find it now.)

So, essentially, do we know everything? No, but the is a published study and there are scientists who are making much more informed conclusions and I think it's worth listening to them. These aren't random people - or politicians, journalists, and pundits - saying this.

Edited by Farrar
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20 minutes ago, Acadie said:

I know other countries, like South Korea, are way ahead of us on testing for coronavirus. But I'm trying to figure out if any country has developed a reliable bedside test for clinicians to use. Has anyone found a source you could link on this? My Google search didn't turn up anything. 

 

I would be surprised if there is one.  All information I have seen indicates a wait of days for results. 

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Just now, Pen said:

 

I would be surprised if there is one.  All information I have seen indicates a wait of days for results. 

Thanks, Pen! Drive-thru testing in South Korea must involve notifying people a few days later with the results, then.

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From BBC, video in link (ETA: News posted 27 Feb 2020)

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/health-51660561/coronavirus-how-a-drive-through-testing-facility-in-london-works

“The BBC's health editor, Hugh Pym, was shown a demonstration of how a "drive-through" testing facility purpose-built at Central London Community Healthcare NHS Trust will work.

This sort of safe and convenient testing scheme is being rolled out across the country at NHS sites.

More than 7,000 people in the UK have been tested for the virus, with 15 people testing positive so far”

Edited by Arcadia
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@gardenmom5 @Jean in Newcastle@lauraw4321

https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/local-usps-employee-tests-positive-coronavirus/XLKCBEXO5FFJ3DRQSBHNACPW2M/
“FEDERAL WAY, Wash. — KIRO 7 found out Saturday evening that a Seattle area U.S. Postal Service employee tested positive for the coronavirus.

A corporate communications spokesperson said that the employee works at a Seattle Network Distribution Center located in Federal Way.

The Network Distribution Center is a mail processing plant that distributes USPS marketing mail and package services in piece and bulk form and does not handle letter mail. No mail is delivered from the facility.

The spokesperson said USPS has been consulting with the county health department and was informed that the risk to other employees is low.”

https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/two-dozen-emergency-workers-quarantined-possible-coronavirus/JJD6ZERIZBG2FEF5HDZIULIIJM/
“KING COUNTY, Wash. — Two dozen emergency workers are off the job as they are being monitored for possible exposure to the coronavirus.

Earlier Saturday evening, KIRO 7 was told it was seven fighters but that number climbed to 25, adding two police officers who are being quarantined.

Fire station 21 in Kirkland has a sign up tell people to keep out, including firefighters based there.

Each firefighter is believed to have possibly come in contact with the coronavirus at Life Care Center.

Now the situation has resources being stretched thin.

To keep families safe during the public health crisis, KIRO 7 was told the department will be relying on neighboring firefighters should anything huge happen.

... Health works have insisted that none of the quarantined emergency workers have shown any symptoms and said it is just a necessary precaution.”

Edited by Arcadia
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17 hours ago, Pawz4me said:

That's one reason I don't waste money on them. The first few wipes are very moist and probably wet surfaces enough to work, the middle ones maybe kinda sorta are wet enough to work, and the last third or so are dry enough that they're probably worthless other than for friction.

I just add a bit of water and shake them up. But I'm not sure they're as effective once I've diluted them.

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2 hours ago, SeaConquest said:

Interesting Twitter thread. They have mapped the genome of one of the community spread cases in Washington and traced its origins.

https://mobile.twitter.com/trvrb/status/1233970271318503426


I was just coming to post this. This thread pushes us over the edge as a family. We’ve decided this is the last weekend of going out. No church no extra curriculars, girls will wear masks at school (to reduce likelihood of touching their faces with dirty hands), etc. No avoidable contact with the community. 
 

(we live in Seattle area)

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@Pen @BeachGal
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-coronavirus-diagnosis-ct-scans-lungs-2020-2 (images in link, long detailed article)

“Authorities in China's Hubei province reported a dramatic spike in coronavirus cases on Thursday: 14,840 new cases.

It was the most cases reported in a single day since the outbreak began in December. The Hubei Health Commission also reported that an additional 242 people had died.

But the virus didn't suddenly become more aggressive — instead, Hubei officials said they changed the way they count cases. Rather than relying only on blood tests, which are in limited supply and can take take days to yield results, officials have started including diagnoses made via CT scans in their daily case totals. 

The scans are considered less thorough than a blood test, but the New York Times reported last week that doctors in Wuhan, where the virus originated, are running short on test kits.

Patients diagnosed via CT scan — what Chinese officials call "clinically diagnosed cases" — present symptoms of the virus in their lungs, but either haven't been lab-tested or died before the test could be administered. 

... 

"It kind of looks like faint glass that has been ground up," Paras Lakhani, a radiologist at Thomas Jefferson University, told Business Insider. "What it represents is fluid in the lung spaces."

On its own, Lakhani said, ground glass isn't particularly helpful for identifying a coronavirus.

"You can see it with all types of infections — bacterial, viral, or sometimes even non-infectious causes," Lakhani said. "Even vaping could sometimes appear this way."

But the patches are significant, he added, when they extend to the edges of the patient's lungs. 

"That's something we don't often see," Lakhani said. "We saw that with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and we saw that with Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)."”

 

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14 hours ago, Patty Joanna said:

I have a friend who has worked in global infectious disease control for YEARS.  He's helped with the Ebola virus in Africa, and so on.  He is on the side of "everyone please calm down--and don't be stupid."  From what I have read, the virus affects people in varying degrees of illness--and so it is the health-vulnerable that have to be most careful.  

My friend pointed out that in the same timeframe, 30,000 Americans have died of the flu; 3,000 worldwide have died from CoronaV.  BUT he also notes that there is a lot of likelihood that there is information suppression and so we may not actually have the true numbers yet.  It is hard to know who or what to believe, and really, what we can do is to take the best steps we know now.  :0/

Definitely think not panicking is a good idea but I'm not sure how so many people dying from the flu is supposed to be in any way comforting. As far as I can find out the mortality rate for Covid-19 is at least double that of influenza and no-one has immunity and there isn't a vaccine. We just haven't been exposed to it yet.

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FYI, for those who are interested -- I'm in NC. I was at Walmart this morning right at 9:00. Sunday mornings are a normal shopping time for me. I estimate that they were two to three times busier than normal, but all of the hot/in demand items that have been discussed were well stocked with the sole exception of hand sanitizer. They had Wet Ones and HandiWipes (brand name and store brand) in the hard plastic containers, the small soft packs like you'd keep in a purse or in your car, and the individually wrapped ones. But no bottles of hand sanitizer. There was plenty of alcohol, peroxide, dog food, supplements, bleach, antibacterial wipes, bottled water, TP, all the regular food, etc. Nobody seemed to be anywhere close to panic buying, but there were definitely more people shopping. 

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16 minutes ago, Pawz4me said:

FYI, for those who are interested -- I'm in NC. I was at Walmart this morning right at 9:00. Sunday mornings are a normal shopping time for me. I estimate that they were two to three times busier than normal, but all of the hot/in demand items that have been discussed were well stocked with the sole exception of hand sanitizer. They had Wet Ones and HandiWipes (brand name and store brand) in the hard plastic containers, the small soft packs like you'd keep in a purse or in your car, and the individually wrapped ones. But no bottles of hand sanitizer. There was plenty of alcohol, peroxide, dog food, supplements, bleach, antibacterial wipes, bottled water, TP, all the regular food, etc. Nobody seemed to be anywhere close to panic buying, but there were definitely more people shopping. 

Similar to my early morning Target run this morning except it was very quiet, which is probably normal at that time. I noticed a few things were low like Advil (but not Tylenol which I thought was interesting, since Tylenol reduces fever) and Vitamin C. Plenty of Lysol, hand wipes, hand sanitizer, bleach and so on. I talked one person in to buying the last box of vitamin c, but even she seemed only mildly concerned.

I find the current reactions around the country interesting. Of all the people I’ve talked to this past week, not one has been concerned or even following it much. Yesterday we were at an indoor track meet with a few thousand other people. I saw a woman with a newborn (!!) and another kid who enjoyed sticking her hand into an ATM and then straight into her mouth, before playing with all the buttons. 🤮 The parents were wholly unconcerned. We figure after yesterday we are doomed. Lol

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Now that it’s confirmed the virus has been circulating in WA for six weeks, and until they close the schools, wouldn’t it be advisable to remind children heading off to school tomorrow about hygiene? Cough into an elbow. Attach a small bottle of hand sanitizer to an elastic wristlet or belt loop as a reminder, include a note about using hand sanitizer in their lunch bag, etc. They can carry and transmit without ever being very ill. School staff, parents and grandparents at home may not be as lucky.

Edited by Sneezyone
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For those of us who have kids in school, I am not sure how practical it is to shut down.  And nobody washes hands at school.  Time isn’t allocated for it, and often bathrooms around here (southwest Virginia) don’t have soap.  Reminding them to use hand sanitizer is probably better than nothing, but I feel pessimistic about our chances.  

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11 minutes ago, Sneezyone said:

Now that it’s confirmed the virus has been circulating in WA for six weeks, and until they close the schools, wouldn’t it be advisable to remind children heading off to school tomorrow about hygiene? Cough into an elbow. Attach a small bottle of hand sanitizer to an elastic wristlet or belt loop as a reminder, include a note about using hand sanitizer in their lunch bag, etc. They can carry and transmit without ever being very ill. School staff, parents and grandparents at home may not be as lucky.

I'm surprised that they aren't closing more schools. I wonder how many parents will refuse to send their kids, if they have childcare available. If I was in charge I'd want everyone to freeze long enough to get caught up on testing possible contacts, before you have 50 more "Oops, this person who ended up getting sick has close contact with 300 people every day," kinds of cases. 

At the same time, I know that with other illnesses like the flu it is actually better for people with mild illness and likely a milder strain of the flu to be out and spreading their strain (yuck) instead of stronger strains that make people sicker getting spread. This was one of the Spanish flu factors. 

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5 minutes ago, Terabith said:

For those of us who have kids in school, I am not sure how practical it is to shut down.  And nobody washes hands at school.  Time isn’t allocated for it, and often bathrooms around here (southwest Virginia) don’t have soap.  Reminding them to use hand sanitizer is probably better than nothing, but I feel pessimistic about our chances.  

And often it takes forever to get hot water to come out of the faucets. In my classroom I have to run the water for five minutes to get hot water. 

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Does anyone know whether there is any follow up available on situations on Diamond Princess where one spouse was positive for Covid-19 and the other negative?

 I am wondering if the formerly negative spouses of positive spouses subsequently developed into positive for Covid-19?  Or if not is there anything about them we can learn about immunity, practices that might have helped them to stay free despite close contact with someone who had it? 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, beaners said:

I'm surprised that they aren't closing more schools. I wonder how many parents will refuse to send their kids, if they have childcare available. If I was in charge I'd want everyone to freeze long enough to get caught up on testing possible contacts, before you have 50 more "Oops, this person who ended up getting sick has close contact with 300 people every day," kinds of cases. 

At the same time, I know that with other illnesses like the flu it is actually better for people with mild illness and likely a milder strain of the flu to be out and spreading their strain (yuck) instead of stronger strains that make people sicker getting spread. This was one of the Spanish flu factors. 

 

We don’t know if that’s true with this SARS-2 virus.  People who are asymptomatic seem to have spread it to others who have then had severe illness or even death.

 

This particular virus is not “obeying the rules”!  Or rather it is not following typical virus patterns. Personally, I am assuming it can do all sorts of things people would think it can’t do. 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Pippen said:

And often it takes forever to get hot water to come out of the faucets. In my classroom I have to run the water for five minutes to get hot water. 

 

I wonder how you could deal with that in these circumstances?

Maybe get the water hot while doing other things and then have all kids cycle through proper washing while the class is working quietly on some content subject? Math problems or writing or whatever?

Perhaps also have an “everyone wipe your desks” routine?

I am wondering for my son too who is in public school at a devil may care sort of teen stage, and where teachers at the school are saying this is no big deal, no worse than flu, just media hype.  

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10 hours ago, regentrude said:

How does anybody actually know these numbers? They can only be guesses because nobody knows how many mild cases there are where the person does not suspect they have this virus and does not seek medical attention.  They won't get diagnosed if they just think they have some respiratory bug and don't go to the doctor for their cough or fever. There could be many more infected people and we just have no clue. Which would then of course reduce the above percentage.

 

Perhaps from situations like Diamond Princess or South Korea  where there are known population groups to be checking carefully ???

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