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1 minute ago, Mrs Tiggywinkle said:

Around 40% of the Covid patients coming through our local ER are fully vaccinated.  They likely don’t need admission, but still feel crummy.  We are at 8.13% right now, so it’s definitely sweeping through the community. 

 

 

The more I read, the more aware I’m becoming that the vaccine is so much more protective the younger you are. It seems pretty much linear in that way. Elderly vaccinated people are still like 5-8 times less likely to die of Covid than unvaccinated ones, but younger vaccinated people (I can’t remember which age this rate was for) are like 1000 times less likely to die of Covid than unvaccinated. I’m glad the boosters are available now. I hope they help a whole lot. 

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6 hours ago, KSera said:

Unless they start vaccinating kids before then, it’s going to run through the kids at that point then. At least the adults will hopefully still be pretty well protected via their vaccines still. I guess it will give us more idea of whether the breakthroughs we’re  seeing are more a function of delta or of vaccines waning.

It's going to run through the kids before then, I think. No mask mandate for under 12's at all, and they are back at school from Oct 25. I hope I'm wrong. I hope by magic/summer our rates drop so low there's no 'it' to run through anyone!

I'm a bit concerned that I was vaccinated early - March/beginning June. So heading towards the six month mark. 

I'm really worried about the return to face to face teaching. 

 

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50 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

It's going to run through the kids before then, I think. No mask mandate for under 12's at all, and they are back at school from Oct 25. I hope I'm wrong. I hope by magic/summer our rates drop so low there's no 'it' to run through anyone!

I'm a bit concerned that I was vaccinated early - March/beginning June. So heading towards the six month mark. 

I'm really worried about the return to face to face teaching. 

 

I’m kind of worried about what to do in the period of time before vaccines are available for under 12s.  I am pretty sure borders are going to open first.  Most of what we do is fairly safe but work isn’t.  I really can’t afford to quit right now but will feel absolutely terrible if I bring it home to my kid

😞

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8 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I’m kind of worried about what to do in the period of time before vaccines are available for under 12s.  I am pretty sure borders are going to open first.  Most of what we do is fairly safe but work isn’t.  I really can’t afford to quit right now but will feel absolutely terrible if I bring it home to my kid

😞

Yeah.

Work is the big risk. 

It's hard. 

 

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What I am struggling with is - what is the actual number of cases? If people are dying at home without a diagnosis, surely that shows that actual number of covid cases is far higher that we think? In that case, while falling numbers are good, perhaps they are misleading.

I keep going back and forth re school. There are no cases in my area - if the case thing is accurate. But there are definitely unvaccinated parents at the school who could potentially catch it if things opened up. There are cases in my daughter's school area (she goes out of area). Some of the kids attend from LGAs of highest risk. I do know that one child spread covid to several other students and teachers at the catholic school literally 2 streets away. So it could happen. Really wish they'd just start back with the 12 plus kids and wait for the others till they could get vaccinated!!

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3 minutes ago, bookbard said:

What I am struggling with is - what is the actual number of cases? If people are dying at home without a diagnosis, surely that shows that actual number of covid cases is far higher that we think? In that case, while falling numbers are good, perhaps they are misleading.

I keep going back and forth re school. There are no cases in my area - if the case thing is accurate. But there are definitely unvaccinated parents at the school who could potentially catch it if things opened up. There are cases in my daughter's school area (she goes out of area). Some of the kids attend from LGAs of highest risk. I do know that one child spread covid to several other students and teachers at the catholic school literally 2 streets away. So it could happen. Really wish they'd just start back with the 12 plus kids and wait for the others till they could get vaccinated!!

I think it's so frustrating to go back for as little as six weeks before the holidays. 

K and 1 I get. I really do. 

The eight weeks they will get is probably worth it. 2-6? Not sure. 

If I had lsl I'd be taking it, that's for sure. I may try end up trying for unpaid leave. 

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1 hour ago, Melissa Louise said:

It's going to run through the kids before then, I think. No mask mandate for under 12's at all, and they are back at school from Oct 25. I hope I'm wrong. I hope by magic/summer our rates drop so low there's no 'it' to run through anyone!

I'm a bit concerned that I was vaccinated early - March/beginning June. So heading towards the six month mark. 

I'm really worried about the return to face to face teaching. 

 

There is a mask mandate here and from what I can tell, it’s pretty well enforced. And Covid is still running through kids.  Some of that is family transmission to be sure, but they’ve traced a lot of cases to school/bussing. We’re now at almost a 10% positivity rate, up from 3% when school started.

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22 minutes ago, bookbard said:

What I am struggling with is - what is the actual number of cases? If people are dying at home without a diagnosis, surely that shows that actual number of covid cases is far higher that we think? In that case, while falling numbers are good, perhaps they are misleading.

I keep going back and forth re school. There are no cases in my area - if the case thing is accurate. But there are definitely unvaccinated parents at the school who could potentially catch it if things opened up. There are cases in my daughter's school area (she goes out of area). Some of the kids attend from LGAs of highest risk. I do know that one child spread covid to several other students and teachers at the catholic school literally 2 streets away. So it could happen. Really wish they'd just start back with the 12 plus kids and wait for the others till they could get vaccinated!!

Yeah we were just talking about this last night.  I think the trends might be right and cases falling but the absolute numbers must be much higher than the reported numbers.  Only a small fraction of people die so presumably for everyone dying at home without treatment there’s a lot more people who have the virus that aren’t being tested.

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3 minutes ago, Mrs Tiggywinkle said:

There is a mask mandate here and from what I can tell, it’s pretty well enforced. And Covid is still running through kids.  Some of that is family transmission to be sure, but they’ve traced a lot of cases to school/bussing. We’re now at almost a 10% positivity rate, up from 3% when school started.

Interesting. Manhattan numbers haven't started going up despite school starting. It's possible they are being otherwise more careful? 

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5 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

 Only a small fraction of people die so presumably for everyone dying at home without treatment there’s a lot more people who have the virus that aren’t being tested.

Yep. Let alone all the asymptomatic people. 

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13 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Interesting. Manhattan numbers haven't started going up despite school starting. It's possible they are being otherwise more careful? 

Or a higher adult vaxx rate.  At least at my kid’s school they’re pretty on top of making sure the kids mask properly and that’s what I’m hearing from parents at other schools.  And kids are playing sports masked including dance and gymnastics.  So I am honestly not sure. One cluster was traced to the bus(my kids were on the bus and quarantined but never got sick) where four out of 10 kids exposed got Covid.  They watched the tapes and all masks were being worn appropriately, but it was a 45 minute bus ride and I imagine the viral load in the air was heavy.  Crossing fingers my kids have still have natural immunity until they can be vaccinated.

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2 minutes ago, Mrs Tiggywinkle said:

Or a higher adult vaxx rate.  At least at my kid’s school they’re pretty on top of making sure the kids mask properly and that’s what I’m hearing from parents at other schools.  And kids are playing sports masked including dance and gymnastics.  So I am honestly not sure. One cluster was traced to the bus(my kids were on the bus and quarantined but never got sick) where four out of 10 kids exposed got Covid.  They watched the tapes and all masks were being worn appropriately, but it was a 45 minute bus ride and I imagine the viral load in the air was heavy.  Crossing fingers my kids have still have natural immunity until they can be vaccinated.

Are they opening the windows on the bus at all? Or is that not possible? 

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13 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Are they opening the windows on the bus at all? Or is that not possible? 

Some are half opened, but I think for safety reasons the bus windows don’t open much at all.   I kind of think even if you’re wearing good masks, spending 45 minutes or all day(in a classroom) indoors with someone who has a high viral load, as we see with Delta, it’s going to be transmitted.  Hopefully masks and ventilation can cut down how many kids it transmits too, but I think some transmission is just inevitable.

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39 minutes ago, Mrs Tiggywinkle said:

There is a mask mandate here and from what I can tell, it’s pretty well enforced. And Covid is still running through kids.  Some of that is family transmission to be sure, but they’ve traced a lot of cases to school/bussing. We’re now at almost a 10% positivity rate, up from 3% when school started.

We have a mask mandate and high vaccination level, and I’m surprised how well the schools are doing so far. For the four surrounding large school districts, there are lots of schools with no cases, lots with 1 or maybe 2, and only a few that have had more than that. One school had 17, but that’s the only one that had an outbreak like that so far. Hopefully it stays like this. I had feared much worse. 

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1 minute ago, Mrs Tiggywinkle said:

Some are half opened, but I think for safety reasons the bus windows don’t open much at all.   I kind of think even if you’re wearing good masks, spending 45 minutes or all day(in a classroom) indoors with someone who has a high viral load, as we see with Delta, it’s going to be transmitted.  Hopefully masks and ventilation can cut down how many kids it transmits too, but I think some transmission is just inevitable.

I definitely thought so, too, but then we didn't have spike in NYC and they don't have a spike in San Francisco, either (we have lots of friends there.) So it makes me wonder what the difference between the places is. 

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NSW 863

Vic 867

ACT 13

QLD 4 

From ABC:

Mr Foley was asked about increasing case numbers in communities where second dose vaccination levels are below the state average.

He says the "best lived experience" he can point to is New South Wales.

"Where that essentially was the case in those high risk communities, once they get over 50 per cent the curve started to bend. It is the same variance, it is the same vaccines, the communities are not dissimilar in a lot of ways.

"We would certainly be doing everything we possibly can with the support of those communities to get to that level as soon as we possibly can, and then seeing that curve bend."

 

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1 hour ago, Not_a_Number said:

I definitely thought so, too, but then we didn't have spike in NYC and they don't have a spike in San Francisco, either (we have lots of friends there.) So it makes me wonder what the difference between the places is. 

How does the climate compare?

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1 hour ago, Not_a_Number said:

I definitely thought so, too, but then we didn't have spike in NYC and they don't have a spike in San Francisco, either (we have lots of friends there.) So it makes me wonder what the difference between the places is. 

Our local school busses are running quite empty. Parents are driving K to 12th kids through and from school. My district’s school case numbers are lower than SF. 

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2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

863 for NSW and 15 deaths

950 for VIC 7 deaths

1 for Qld

45 for NZ (Not sure on the details but seems higher than previously?  Hope this isn’t a bad sign)

Of the NSW deaths 9 were unvaxxed. The status of the others wasn’t specified but it worries me the fully vaccinated deaths.

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37 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Of the NSW deaths 9 were unvaxxed. The status of the others wasn’t specified but it worries me the fully vaccinated deaths.

For Singapore, all were elderly with underlying medical conditions. There were 2,236 new COVID-19 cases as of noon on Tuesday.

“All five fatalities were Singaporean. Four were men aged 69, 73, 74 and 79 while one was a 77-year-old woman.

Among them, MOH said two had been unvaccinated against COVID-19. One had been partially vaccinated and the remaining two had been vaccinated.

All of them had various underlying medical conditions, added MOH. ”

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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Of the NSW deaths 9 were unvaxxed. The status of the others wasn’t specified but it worries me the fully vaccinated deaths.

There was an article about this on the ABC website today. Seems fairly clear that most of the vaccinated deaths (not today necessarily) have been either quite elderly or quite ill with something already eg immunocompromised. It says to me that a vaccine only solution isn't going to work for vulnerable groups of people. 

Had a conversation with a teacher today who is absolutely freaking out about kids returning to school. Really concerned that even though she is vaxxed she may catch it from kids and perhaps spread it to her elderly parents. 

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4 hours ago, Melissa Louise said:

NSW school opening brought forward by a week. They are really trying for some good old 'herd immunity' by Xmas. 

I can hear the sarcasm here, but for those who haven't been following the latest as closely, at this point, there is no known 'herd immunity' level for covid. (That is, a level at which transmission drops off because a large portion of the community is immune to the disease.) So, sadly, ML is saying NSW officials are trying to get the latest surge going strong in hopes it will drop off before Christmas. 

I've seen many references to surges lasting 7-9 weeks (with long tails). So, perhaps there is some logic there, just not the humanitarian logic that people would like to see employed.

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10 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://theintercept.com/2021/09/28/covid-telehealth-hydroxychloroquine-ivermectin-hacked/
 

Take this for what it’s worth being anonymous hackers etc but 😬

I just read this, and it is chilling! Some people are hell bent on removing themselves from the gene pool, and greedy capitalist con men are more than willing to deprive them of their money on the way out the door. Sigh. And even more frightening, people with medical licenses gleefully running to the bank on it.

 

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1 hour ago, Not_a_Number said:

I'm sadly watching states other than NY go above NY in the "deaths per capita" lists. I wouldn't have thought anyone would outdo the Northeast, given how much off-guard we were when it came here... 

New York City is no longer even in the top 100 in the US for per capita death rates by county. That is stunning. You can view about halfway down the page here (you have to do a search if you want to see where New York City falls, since they only list the top 100 in New York City is no longer in it): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html#click=https://t.co/fuUYJn1W7k

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2 minutes ago, KSera said:

New York City is no longer even in the top 100 in the US for per capita death rates by county. That is stunning. You can view about halfway down the page here (you have to do a search if you want to see where New York City falls, since they only list the top 100 in New York City is no longer in it): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html#click=https://t.co/fuUYJn1W7k

My goodness. Practically all the top ones are in the South 😕 . That is so sad, given how much more warning those places had. 

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2 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

My goodness. Practically all the top ones are in the South 😕 . That is so sad, given how much more warning those places had. 

From the start, I think so many places thought that since they weren’t big cities, it was different for them and they didn’t have to worry as much or take any of the measures cities might need to. That has turned out to be completely untrue, but I think there are some people still laboring under that idea.

Eta: You hear people say things like, “we’ve only had one death in my town“ to explain why Covid isn’t a big deal for them, suggesting the belief that they think there’s something fundamentally different that’s going to protect their town from ever being hit the way other places have been.

Edited by KSera
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38 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

My goodness. Practically all the top ones are in the South 😕 . That is so sad, given how much more warning those places had. 

Many of the counties listed in the south did have early outreaks (in the New Orelans area).  Also, they tend to be extremely small counties.  The population in these areas tend to be older and less wealthy, and some of these counties have no hospital or other medical care.  When you have 10,000 people living in a county and one person dies from COVID you are already at 10 per 100,000.  So, unfortunately, it can take only an outbreak at one nursing home to put some of these counties. to put these counties in a high per capita death range.  

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1 hour ago, KSera said:

 

Eta: You hear people say things like, “we’ve only had one death in my town“ to explain why Covid isn’t a big deal for them, suggesting the belief that they think there’s something fundamentally different that’s going to protect their town from ever being hit the way other places have been.

Yup. Or "the covid positive people in my area aren't having serious symptoms" as if the people in their area either get some natural immune boost or have some magically different Covid in their town and that bad one you hear about on the news will never effect where they live, so they don't have to worry about precautions. 

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2 hours ago, KSera said:

From the start, I think so many places thought that since they weren’t big cities, it was different for them and they didn’t have to worry as much or take any of the measures cities might need to. That has turned out to be completely untrue, but I think there are some people still laboring under that idea.

Eta: You hear people say things like, “we’ve only had one death in my town“ to explain why Covid isn’t a big deal for them, suggesting the belief that they think there’s something fundamentally different that’s going to protect their town from ever being hit the way other places have been.

Yes, I saw a lot of this attitude on this forum. I tried really hard to argue with it and was completely and utterly unsuccessful. I don't think people were convincible. 

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I got a very scary (to me) call today. It was from an adult student who wants to take piano following a stroke to help regain his motor skills and, in his words "keep me from going nuts at home". 

 

 

He's 49 and recovering from COVID-he had a stroke due to blood clots and has other long term symptoms. His two college sons both left school last year to take care of him and haven't gone back yet-he's hoping he'll be able to drive himself again by Jan. He's frustrated with the therapists he has, and one of the families at his church recommended me as someone who was able to combine piano and other activities to help her daughter develop handwriting (I'm an educational specialist for the state special needs grant). 

 

I'll do what I can...but that's terrifying. He's basically me, except that I was lucky enough to not catch COVID before I was eligible to be vaccinated. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Dmmetler said:

I got a very scary (to me) call today. It was from an adult student who wants to take piano following a stroke to help regain his motor skills and, in his words "keep me from going nuts at home". 

He's 49 and recovering from COVID-he had a stroke due to blood clots and has other long term symptoms. His two college sons both left school last year to take care of him and haven't gone back yet-he's hoping he'll be able to drive himself again by Jan. He's frustrated with the therapists he has, and one of the families at his church recommended me as someone who was able to combine piano and other activities to help her daughter develop handwriting (I'm an educational specialist for the state special needs grant). 

I'll do what I can...but that's terrifying. He's basically me, except that I was lucky enough to not catch COVID before I was eligible to be vaccinated. 

That really is scary 😕

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Ugh - school back for my kids in a month. The teacher yday said there would be no online work provided and reports would be based on this last term - ugh!! 

Oh well a month to decide what to do. I've heard a lot of parents are going to take a 'family holiday' in those last weeks to put it off until their kids can be vaccinated. Even a lot of the 12-15yr olds can't get access to the vaccine in the next month, let alone the little ones. 

Trying to work out actual risks - tricky. There are 0 cases in our local area, but about a hundred in the area where my daughter goes to school. 

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9 minutes ago, bookbard said:

Ugh - school back for my kids in a month. The teacher yday said there would be no online work provided and reports would be based on this last term - ugh!! 

Oh well a month to decide what to do. I've heard a lot of parents are going to take a 'family holiday' in those last weeks to put it off until their kids can be vaccinated. Even a lot of the 12-15yr olds can't get access to the vaccine in the next month, let alone the little ones. 

Trying to work out actual risks - tricky. There are 0 cases in our local area, but about a hundred in the area where my daughter goes to school. 

What would be the downsides to waiting till next year to start back for you guys?

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7 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

What would be the downsides to waiting till next year to start back for you guys?

My daughter has a place in a special class - she might lose it. There would be a bit of local pressure otherwise, small town etc. 

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https://theconversation.com/relying-only-on-vaccination-in-nsw-from-december-1-isnt-enough-heres-what-we-need-for-sustained-freedom-168833
 

The Doherty report estimates 276,000 Australian children will be infected in the first six months after reopening in the most likely scenario, with 2,400 hospitalisations, 206 ICU admissions and 57 child deaths in that time.

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1 hour ago, bookbard said:

Ugh - school back for my kids in a month. The teacher yday said there would be no online work provided and reports would be based on this last term - ugh!! 

Oh well a month to decide what to do. I've heard a lot of parents are going to take a 'family holiday' in those last weeks to put it off until their kids can be vaccinated. Even a lot of the 12-15yr olds can't get access to the vaccine in the next month, let alone the little ones. 

Trying to work out actual risks - tricky. There are 0 cases in our local area, but about a hundred in the area where my daughter goes to school. 

I don't think it's possible to work out the risks at this point, because case numbers will change when schools open. 

I think all you can do is look at the risk of Covid to a 5th/6th grader, which is low. 

I personally will bless any of our families who 'take a holiday', but the school is very likely to look askance at that, and depending on your Principal, could result in home-school liaison officers being called on you.

In making a decision, I'd look at vulnerabilities of those around you and think about how to mitigate children passing disease to those people.

I'd think about whether things will be substantially different next year - will kids be vaccinated by Feb next year?

I'd contact the school in Wk 1 and ask for their Covid mitigation plan - put some pressure on re ventilation. Are they going to 'strongly recommend' masks?

Look at vax rates in the areas the school draws from. High? Low? 

If they go to school, assume they will get it under NSW's lack of mitigation, if not this term but next.

But remember that healthy children are vanishingly unlikely to become seriously unwell. It's older and vulnerable staff and children with vulnerabilities who are most at risk with the return. 

Haha, this is basically me practicing for the convo with my sib... sorry...you prob worked all this out for yourself. 

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5 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

Seems like the dohaty modelling is correct, Vic has 1438 cases today. A huge jump and expected to continue to rise. 

😟

The only thing I can hope is that you'll begin to see a plateau at this number, and hopefully a fall in a week or so. 

It's really disheartening. 

I hope your DD is able to stay pretty isolated - Covid + pregnancy not a good mix. 

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Just now, Melissa Louise said:

The only thing I can hope is that you'll begin to see a plateau at this number, and hopefully a fall in a week or so. 

It's really disheartening. 

I hope your DD is able to stay pretty isolated - Covid + pregnancy not a good mix. 

I think predictions are that numbers will be 2500 per day by middle of next month. 

 

Dd is extreemy isolated. I am very  concerned though. Her inlaws that live very close to her are covid deniers 

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15 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

I'd contact the school in Wk 1 and ask for their Covid mitigation plan - put some pressure on re ventilation.

Already had convos re ventilation - it is windows only. I've even emailed principal saying we'll fundraise for air purifiers if necessary (only 2 classes, so cost would be low) - nothing. 

 

11 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

eems like the dohaty modelling is correct, Vic has 1438 cases today. A huge jump and expected to continue to rise. 

😟

I am really shocked and saddened by this huge jump overnight. 

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