wuhan - coronavirus

[RootAnn]

4 hours ago, Melissa Louise said:

NSW school opening brought forward by a week. They are really trying for some good old 'herd immunity' by Xmas. 

I can hear the sarcasm here, but for those who haven't been following the latest as closely, at this point, there is no known 'herd immunity' level for covid. (That is, a level at which transmission drops off because a large portion of the community is immune to the disease.) So, sadly, ML is saying NSW officials are trying to get the latest surge going strong in hopes it will drop off before Christmas. 

I've seen many references to surges lasting 7-9 weeks (with long tails). So, perhaps there is some logic there, just not the humanitarian logic that people would like to see employed.

[Faith-manor]

10 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://theintercept.com/2021/09/28/covid-telehealth-hydroxychloroquine-ivermectin-hacked/
 

Take this for what it’s worth being anonymous hackers etc but 😬

I just read this, and it is chilling! Some people are hell bent on removing themselves from the gene pool, and greedy capitalist con men are more than willing to deprive them of their money on the way out the door. Sigh. And even more frightening, people with medical licenses gleefully running to the bank on it.

 

[Not_a_Number]

I'm sadly watching states other than NY go above NY in the "deaths per capita" lists. I wouldn't have thought anyone would outdo the Northeast, given how much off-guard we were when it came here... 

[KSera]

1 hour ago, Not_a_Number said:

I'm sadly watching states other than NY go above NY in the "deaths per capita" lists. I wouldn't have thought anyone would outdo the Northeast, given how much off-guard we were when it came here... 

New York City is no longer even in the top 100 in the US for per capita death rates by county. That is stunning. You can view about halfway down the page here (you have to do a search if you want to see where New York City falls, since they only list the top 100 in New York City is no longer in it): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html#click=https://t.co/fuUYJn1W7k

[Not_a_Number]

2 minutes ago, KSera said:

New York City is no longer even in the top 100 in the US for per capita death rates by county. That is stunning. You can view about halfway down the page here (you have to do a search if you want to see where New York City falls, since they only list the top 100 in New York City is no longer in it): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html#click=https://t.co/fuUYJn1W7k

My goodness. Practically all the top ones are in the South 😕 . That is so sad, given how much more warning those places had. 

[KSera]

2 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

My goodness. Practically all the top ones are in the South 😕 . That is so sad, given how much more warning those places had. 

From the start, I think so many places thought that since they weren’t big cities, it was different for them and they didn’t have to worry as much or take any of the measures cities might need to. That has turned out to be completely untrue, but I think there are some people still laboring under that idea.

Eta: You hear people say things like, “we’ve only had one death in my town“ to explain why Covid isn’t a big deal for them, suggesting the belief that they think there’s something fundamentally different that’s going to protect their town from ever being hit the way other places have been.

Edited September 29, 2021 by KSera

[Bootsie]

38 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

My goodness. Practically all the top ones are in the South 😕 . That is so sad, given how much more warning those places had. 

Many of the counties listed in the south did have early outreaks (in the New Orelans area).  Also, they tend to be extremely small counties.  The population in these areas tend to be older and less wealthy, and some of these counties have no hospital or other medical care.  When you have 10,000 people living in a county and one person dies from COVID you are already at 10 per 100,000.  So, unfortunately, it can take only an outbreak at one nursing home to put some of these counties. to put these counties in a high per capita death range.  

[ktgrok]

1 hour ago, KSera said:

 

Eta: You hear people say things like, “we’ve only had one death in my town“ to explain why Covid isn’t a big deal for them, suggesting the belief that they think there’s something fundamentally different that’s going to protect their town from ever being hit the way other places have been.

Yup. Or "the covid positive people in my area aren't having serious symptoms" as if the people in their area either get some natural immune boost or have some magically different Covid in their town and that bad one you hear about on the news will never effect where they live, so they don't have to worry about precautions. 

[Not_a_Number]

2 hours ago, KSera said:

From the start, I think so many places thought that since they weren’t big cities, it was different for them and they didn’t have to worry as much or take any of the measures cities might need to. That has turned out to be completely untrue, but I think there are some people still laboring under that idea.

Eta: You hear people say things like, “we’ve only had one death in my town“ to explain why Covid isn’t a big deal for them, suggesting the belief that they think there’s something fundamentally different that’s going to protect their town from ever being hit the way other places have been.

Yes, I saw a lot of this attitude on this forum. I tried really hard to argue with it and was completely and utterly unsuccessful. I don't think people were convincible. 

[Dmmetler]

I got a very scary (to me) call today. It was from an adult student who wants to take piano following a stroke to help regain his motor skills and, in his words "keep me from going nuts at home". 

 

 

He's 49 and recovering from COVID-he had a stroke due to blood clots and has other long term symptoms. His two college sons both left school last year to take care of him and haven't gone back yet-he's hoping he'll be able to drive himself again by Jan. He's frustrated with the therapists he has, and one of the families at his church recommended me as someone who was able to combine piano and other activities to help her daughter develop handwriting (I'm an educational specialist for the state special needs grant). 

 

I'll do what I can...but that's terrifying. He's basically me, except that I was lucky enough to not catch COVID before I was eligible to be vaccinated. 

 

 

[Not_a_Number]

2 hours ago, Dmmetler said:

I got a very scary (to me) call today. It was from an adult student who wants to take piano following a stroke to help regain his motor skills and, in his words "keep me from going nuts at home". 

He's 49 and recovering from COVID-he had a stroke due to blood clots and has other long term symptoms. His two college sons both left school last year to take care of him and haven't gone back yet-he's hoping he'll be able to drive himself again by Jan. He's frustrated with the therapists he has, and one of the families at his church recommended me as someone who was able to combine piano and other activities to help her daughter develop handwriting (I'm an educational specialist for the state special needs grant). 

I'll do what I can...but that's terrifying. He's basically me, except that I was lucky enough to not catch COVID before I was eligible to be vaccinated. 

That really is scary 😕. 

[bookbard]

Ugh - school back for my kids in a month. The teacher yday said there would be no online work provided and reports would be based on this last term - ugh!! 

Oh well a month to decide what to do. I've heard a lot of parents are going to take a 'family holiday' in those last weeks to put it off until their kids can be vaccinated. Even a lot of the 12-15yr olds can't get access to the vaccine in the next month, let alone the little ones. 

Trying to work out actual risks - tricky. There are 0 cases in our local area, but about a hundred in the area where my daughter goes to school. 

[Ausmumof3]

9 minutes ago, bookbard said:

Ugh - school back for my kids in a month. The teacher yday said there would be no online work provided and reports would be based on this last term - ugh!! 

Oh well a month to decide what to do. I've heard a lot of parents are going to take a 'family holiday' in those last weeks to put it off until their kids can be vaccinated. Even a lot of the 12-15yr olds can't get access to the vaccine in the next month, let alone the little ones. 

Trying to work out actual risks - tricky. There are 0 cases in our local area, but about a hundred in the area where my daughter goes to school. 

What would be the downsides to waiting till next year to start back for you guys?

[bookbard]

7 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

What would be the downsides to waiting till next year to start back for you guys?

My daughter has a place in a special class - she might lose it. There would be a bit of local pressure otherwise, small town etc. 

[Ausmumof3]

7 minutes ago, bookbard said:

My daughter has a place in a special class - she might lose it. There would be a bit of local pressure otherwise, small town etc. 

yeah I understand.  It’s hard with small town culture I think.  

[Ausmumof3]

https://theconversation.com/relying-only-on-vaccination-in-nsw-from-december-1-isnt-enough-heres-what-we-need-for-sustained-freedom-168833
 

The Doherty report estimates 276,000 Australian children will be infected in the first six months after reopening in the most likely scenario, with 2,400 hospitalisations, 206 ICU admissions and 57 child deaths in that time.

[Melissa Louise]

1 hour ago, bookbard said:

Ugh - school back for my kids in a month. The teacher yday said there would be no online work provided and reports would be based on this last term - ugh!! 

Oh well a month to decide what to do. I've heard a lot of parents are going to take a 'family holiday' in those last weeks to put it off until their kids can be vaccinated. Even a lot of the 12-15yr olds can't get access to the vaccine in the next month, let alone the little ones. 

Trying to work out actual risks - tricky. There are 0 cases in our local area, but about a hundred in the area where my daughter goes to school. 

I don't think it's possible to work out the risks at this point, because case numbers will change when schools open. 

I think all you can do is look at the risk of Covid to a 5th/6th grader, which is low. 

I personally will bless any of our families who 'take a holiday', but the school is very likely to look askance at that, and depending on your Principal, could result in home-school liaison officers being called on you.

In making a decision, I'd look at vulnerabilities of those around you and think about how to mitigate children passing disease to those people.

I'd think about whether things will be substantially different next year - will kids be vaccinated by Feb next year?

I'd contact the school in Wk 1 and ask for their Covid mitigation plan - put some pressure on re ventilation. Are they going to 'strongly recommend' masks?

Look at vax rates in the areas the school draws from. High? Low? 

If they go to school, assume they will get it under NSW's lack of mitigation, if not this term but next.

But remember that healthy children are vanishingly unlikely to become seriously unwell. It's older and vulnerable staff and children with vulnerabilities who are most at risk with the return. 

Haha, this is basically me practicing for the convo with my sib... sorry...you prob worked all this out for yourself. 

[Melissa in Australia]

Seems like the dohaty modelling is correct, Vic has 1438 cases today. A huge jump and expected to continue to rise. 

😟

[Melissa Louise]

5 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

Seems like the dohaty modelling is correct, Vic has 1438 cases today. A huge jump and expected to continue to rise. 

😟

The only thing I can hope is that you'll begin to see a plateau at this number, and hopefully a fall in a week or so. 

It's really disheartening. 

I hope your DD is able to stay pretty isolated - Covid + pregnancy not a good mix. 

[Melissa in Australia]

Just now, Melissa Louise said:

The only thing I can hope is that you'll begin to see a plateau at this number, and hopefully a fall in a week or so. 

It's really disheartening. 

I hope your DD is able to stay pretty isolated - Covid + pregnancy not a good mix. 

I think predictions are that numbers will be 2500 per day by middle of next month. 

 

Dd is extreemy isolated. I am very  concerned though. Her inlaws that live very close to her are covid deniers 

[bookbard]

15 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

I'd contact the school in Wk 1 and ask for their Covid mitigation plan - put some pressure on re ventilation.

Already had convos re ventilation - it is windows only. I've even emailed principal saying we'll fundraise for air purifiers if necessary (only 2 classes, so cost would be low) - nothing. 

 

11 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

eems like the dohaty modelling is correct, Vic has 1438 cases today. A huge jump and expected to continue to rise. 

😟

I am really shocked and saddened by this huge jump overnight. 

[Melissa Louise]

2 minutes ago, bookbard said:

Already had convos re ventilation - it is windows only. I've even emailed principal saying we'll fundraise for air purifiers if necessary (only 2 classes, so cost would be low) - nothing. 

 

I am really shocked and saddened by this huge jump overnight. 

And OHS have said we can't bring in our own air purifiers because of safety risks 🙁

[Melissa Louise]

4 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

I think predictions are that numbers will be 2500 per day by middle of next month. 

 

Dd is extreemy isolated. I am very  concerned though. Her inlaws that live very close to her are covid deniers 

🙁

Will DD consider getting vaccinated? 

We were predicted to get to over 2000/day but instead numbers stabilised. I hope it works that way for VIC. 

[Melissa Louise]

10 hours ago, RootAnn said:

I can hear the sarcasm here, but for those who haven't been following the latest as closely, at this point, there is no known 'herd immunity' level for covid. (That is, a level at which transmission drops off because a large portion of the community is immune to the disease.) So, sadly, ML is saying NSW officials are trying to get the latest surge going strong in hopes it will drop off before Christmas. 

I've seen many references to surges lasting 7-9 weeks (with long tails). So, perhaps there is some logic there, just not the humanitarian logic that people would like to see employed.

Yep. That's the plan! 

As a vulnerable worker, I feel like my health has nil value. 

What is being prioritised here is the Federal government wanting to best position themselves for an upcoming Federal election. 

 

[Melissa in Australia]

16 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

🙁

Will DD consider getting vaccinated? 

We were predicted to get to over 2000/day but instead numbers stabilised. I hope it works that way for VIC. 

No not while pregnant.

[Melissa Louise]

1 minute ago, Melissa in Australia said:

No not while pregnant.

She needs to be very careful.

Pregnancy puts her at a heightened risk of hospitalization and ICU. 

[Dmmetler]

22 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

And OHS have said we can't bring in our own air purifiers because of safety risks 🙁

That is frustrating. I am very relieved that I've been allowed to provide my own (and my building is supposed to be getting updaged HVAC before Halloween.

[whitestavern]

On 9/27/2021 at 8:02 PM, Not_a_Number said:

Interesting. Manhattan numbers haven't started going up despite school starting. It's possible they are being otherwise more careful? 

I wonder if there is more natural immunity in NY due to how hard they were hit last year? 

[ktgrok]

5 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

No not while pregnant.

Here in the USA it has become VERY clear that Covid is a much much much bigger risk during pregnancy than vaccination is. 

[TexasProud]

Just now, ktgrok said:

Here in the USA it has become VERY clear that Covid is a much much much bigger risk during pregnancy than vaccination is. 

Yeah. Eith the original strain, zi would have said wait. Pregnant women that got it were fine. But Delta, ueah I would get tge vaccine, but them also worry about long term harm to my fetus. I gave up coffee for my babies. I didnt want to put anything foreign in my body. I would be scared to death to get it, but I kniw of 3 examples where moms and babies died or almost did snd now have long term problems. But man, I understand the hesitancy. Such an awful choice.  

[Melissa Louise]

6 minutes ago, Dmmetler said:

That is frustrating. I am very relieved that I've been allowed to provide my own (and my building is supposed to be getting updaged HVAC before Halloween.

It is beyond frustrating. 

It's negligent. 

[ktgrok]

Just now, TexasProud said:

Yeah. Eith the original strain, zi would have said wait. Pregnant women that got it were fine. But Delta, ueah I would get tge vaccine, but them also worry about long term harm to my fetus. I gave up coffee for my babies. I didnt want to put anything foreign in my body. I would be scared to death to get it, but I kniw of 3 examples where moms and babies died or almost did snd now have long term problems. But man, I understand the hesitancy. Such an awful choice.  

Yeah, I am a crunchy granola homebirthng lady, but too many women are having stillbirths, or ending up in the ICU or dying themselves, with Covid. Its pretty awful. 

[Melissa in Australia]

6 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

Here in the USA it has become VERY clear that Covid is a much much much bigger risk during pregnancy than vaccination is. 

My brother was hospitalised twice for blood clots from the vaccine ( possibly a mild stroke )

I would personally go with isolation instead of vaccine while pregnant , given our now family history.

[Not_a_Number]

11 minutes ago, whitestavern said:

I wonder if there is more natural immunity in NY due to how hard they were hit last year? 

I mean, probably some, but that was now like 18 months ago, plus it was certainly not everyone -- the antibody tests found like a fifth of people with them. So plenty of fuel, I'm sure. 

[Not_a_Number]

2 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

My brother was hospitalised twice for blood clots from the vaccine ( possibly a mild stroke )

I would personally go with isolation instead of vaccine while pregnant , given our now family history.

Which vaccine, if you don't mind me asking? 

[Melissa in Australia]

Astra Zeneca 

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, Melissa in Australia said:

Astra Zeneca 

Yeah, I think that's a harder calculation, but I would say Pfizer is pretty clear. 

[whitestavern]

 

25 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

No not while pregnant.

What does your D's OB-GYN say? Two of my nieces are pregnant and have support from their doctors to wait on the vaxx. 

[Melissa Louise]

1 minute ago, Not_a_Number said:

Yeah, I think that's a harder calculation, but I would say Pfizer is pretty clear. 

Pfizer and Moderna are becoming available in VIC, though not guaranteed. 

[Rosie_0801]

My 14yo in Melbourne is finally getting her first jab next week. I could have had her done last week. I hope her stepsister finally gets done too. She had access months ago but didn't want to, and being year 12, she's back to school soon.

[Melissa in Australia]

1 minute ago, whitestavern said:

 

What does your D's OB-GYN say? Two of my nieces are pregnant and have support from their doctors to wait on the vaxx. 

Rural areas don’t have OB-GYN. She will have a GP that delivers babies.

[KSera]

1 hour ago, Melissa Louise said:

And OHS have said we can't bring in our own air purifiers because of safety risks 🙁

Argh. I’ve seen people saying they have had this issue, but some have been able to fight it. The corsi-rosenthal boxes have been tested by the EPA and shown not to pose a fire risk. https://chemicalinsights.org/wp-content/uploads/DIY-Box-Fan-Report-2021.pdf?utm_source=Chemical+Insights&utm_campaign=d52ba63ea8-July_2021_Newsletter7_13_2021_13_4&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_09fecf83d2-d52ba63ea8-119531236
That probably doesn’t help you since it’s not an Australian agency though. They won’t accept ones that pass whatever your electrical safety underwriting guidelines are? I’ll let you know if I ever see this discussed specific to Australia. 
 

eta: on the pregnancy thing, the CDC just released an urgent health advisory urging pregnant women to get vaccinated due to the dramatic increased risk. The mRNA vaccines aren’t associated with blood clots, fwiw. 

Edited September 30, 2021 by KSera

[Melissa Louise]

12 minutes ago, Rosie_0801 said:

My 14yo in Melbourne is finally getting her first jab next week. I could have had her done last week. I hope her stepsister finally gets done too. She had access months ago but didn't want to, and being year 12, she's back to school soon.

Good news. 

 

[Jaybee]

1 hour ago, Melissa Louise said:

Pregnancy puts her at a heightened risk of hospitalization and ICU. 

And sadly, death and stillbirth. Not wanting to be scary, but it greatly increases her risks. Vaccination not only protects her, but the baby as well.

ETA: I don't know about the AZ, but Pfizer and Moderna are considered good, I believe. DD had Moderna in early pregnancy; at that time I was worried, but realized that her job put her at greater risk than the vaccine. Then soon after, I read that babies were being born with antibodies, so that was encouraging as well.

Edited September 30, 2021 by Jaybee

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, Melissa Louise said:

And OHS have said we can't bring in our own air purifiers because of safety risks 🙁

One would think they would be concerned about the OH&S risks of not allowing staff to take basic pandemic precautions.

[Melissa Louise]

Just now, Ausmumof3 said:

One would think they would be concerned about the OH&S risks of not allowing staff to take basic pandemic precautions.

You'd think...

 

[ktgrok]

1 hour ago, Melissa in Australia said:

My brother was hospitalised twice for blood clots from the vaccine ( possibly a mild stroke )

I would personally go with isolation instead of vaccine while pregnant , given our now family history.

Oh, isolation is good - but with covid denying family members nearby may be difficult. 

I would choose an mRNA vaccine though, if pregnant - but not sure that's even an option there. 

[Ausmumof3]

Just now, ktgrok said:

Oh, isolation is good - but with covid denying family members nearby may be difficult. 

I would choose an mRNA vaccine though, if pregnant - but not sure that's even an option there. 

It’s pretty available here now, we’ve all had it except my youngest who is 9.  I’m not sure about rural VIC.

[Ausmumof3]

ABC 
More than 500 cases linked to grand final weekend gatherings, COVID commander says

Jeroen Weimar is up now — and he's said pretty clearly that social gatherings on AFL grand final weekend are part of why Victoria's cases spiked so high today.

"The contact tracers tell us that there have been significant numbers of social gatherings on Friday and Saturday, over a long weekend. Grand final parties. Other social gatherings, barbecues, backyard visits. This has generated a significant case load," he says.

"A third of our cases are due directly to those different types of social gatherings, as people have dropped their guard, and decided now it's the grand final weekend, it's the long weekend, we deserve a bit of a payback, we deserve a nicer time. And that has now translated into additional 500 cases from when we expected to see today."

[Ausmumof3]

6 cases for QLD, 31 for ACT, 19 for NZ, 941 for NSW