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gardenmom5

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Covid plan for the winter in England. Currently Scotland already has mask mandates for most public indoor areas but England does not. I expect the booster plan to be similar in Scotland, so as an over-50 I will be offered an mRNA booster six months after my second AZ jab, so in November. I have already booked a private flu jab for October- first appt  I could get.

BBC News - Boris Johnson warns Covid risk remains as he unveils England's winter plan
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58560031

Screenshot_20210915-073302_BBC News.jpg

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16 hours ago, bookbard said:

Someone I know working in a Sydney hospital reckons he's seeing people every day coming in with covid and asking to be vaccinated because they're feeling so ill. 

I think there needs to be a really basic campaign based on 'it's too late to be vaccinated once you've got covid'. Because evidently lots and lots of people don't understand that. 

Friend of a friend is a paramedic doing admin and they are busier than they’ve even been and seeing multiple Covid related heart attacks in 20-40 age groups per day. Will probably delete for privacy reasons.

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2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

 

This study referenced and linked is pre-print only but seems to indicate this virus is changing much faster than flu at the moment.

OK, this is the worst thing I've seen in ages 😕 . I don't like the sound of that at all. 

Is this related to how many people are getting infected or is this some natural feature of COVID? 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Not_a_Number said:

OK, this is the worst thing I've seen in ages 😕 . I don't like the sound of that at all. 

Is this related to how many people are getting infected or is this some natural feature of COVID? 

 

 

I think from the comments I’m reading on it they aren’t 100pc sure but probably both from this comment from one of the study authors Twitter feed.  

“Most of this rapid pace of evolution is likely due to adaptation to a new host, but in general, this suggests to me that the S1 domain of spike in SARS-CoV-2 is a readily evolvable domain. 

Circulating mutations like 484K partially escape from antibody responses and although I'd anticipate the pace of evolution to slow as the virus becomes endemic in the human population, I would also expect relatively rapid antigenic drift, just given this data.

We'll of course have to wait to see what unfolds, but I would, at this point, suspect an influenza H3N2-like process of antigenic drift and necessarily frequent vaccine updates in the upcoming years. “

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

We'll of course have to wait to see what unfolds, but I would, at this point, suspect an influenza H3N2-like process of antigenic drift and necessarily frequent vaccine updates in the upcoming years. 

Oh, that's great. 

The flu vaccine gives me a sore arm. Pfizer gave me a headache for 2 weeks 😕 . Doing this every year would be a major bummer. 

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5 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

I didn't phrase my qu very well.

What I should have said was, with Delta, if  I'm reducing my viral load through masking etc, will that make any substantial difference to severity of any breakthrough infection?

I'd guess so. It's like a lot of these questions... no, we don't know specifically for this virus, but it's usually true, so you expect it to be true. And it was true for earlier variants, so... conclude what you will. 

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https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/alberta-childrens-hospital-to-close-75-per-cent-of-operating-rooms-by-monday/wcm/98e1a54d-90f5-4c90-9253-508daea238b6/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6178253

Premier Jason Kenney warned Wednesday, as he announced new restrictions, that the acute-care system could run out of staff and critical-care beds within 10 days.

The critical care triage protocol, a 52-page document developed by Alberta Health Services, describes how the health-care system will cope if intensive care units (ICUs) no longer have the resources to care for every critically ill patient.

 

 

 

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https://amp.abc.net.au/article/100473324?__twitter_impression=true
 

Abc: A Sydney man who spent 399 days in hospital recovering from COVID-19 has urged the community to get vaccinated, saying the virus is real.

Sixty-nine-year-old David Avila Mellado was admitted to Westmead Hospital last year on July 29 after getting infected. Earlier this month, he was finally able to go home.

 

wow!  Amazing not to give up for so long and finally go home.

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https://www.oregon.gov/oha/covid19/Documents/DataReports/Breakthrough-Case-Report.pdf
 

Oregon’s weekly covid breakthrough report. It’s very reassuring in avoiding death, pretty reassuring on avoiding the vent, and it gives me a bit of a pause on my likelihood of avoiding severe influenza like illness—even vaccinated and masked.

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2 hours ago, prairiewindmomma said:

https://www.oregon.gov/oha/covid19/Documents/DataReports/Breakthrough-Case-Report.pdf
 

Oregon’s weekly covid breakthrough report. It’s very reassuring in avoiding death, pretty reassuring on avoiding the vent, and it gives me a bit of a pause on my likelihood of avoiding severe influenza like illness—even vaccinated and masked.

Whenever I look at the info, I can't help but wonder what if everyone who could did get vaccinated....If 20% of those getting covid are vaccinated, and it reduces rate of infection like we are hearing, we'd be looking at 1/5 as many people getting it. That would mean going from 15% positivity to 3% positivity. That's a HUGE difference. How is it people can't see how much better that would be? Instead they say, "well vaccinated people can get it too" as if their brain works on binary, and they can't conceive that FEWER sick people is better than MORE sick people. 

 

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51 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

Whenever I look at the info, I can't help but wonder what if everyone who could did get vaccinated....If 20% of those getting covid are vaccinated, and it reduces rate of infection like we are hearing, we'd be looking at 1/5 as many people getting it. That would mean going from 15% positivity to 3% positivity. That's a HUGE difference. How is it people can't see how much better that would be? Instead they say, "well vaccinated people can get it too" as if their brain works on binary, and they can't conceive that FEWER sick people is better than MORE sick people. 

 

One should think that, I think. Currently in my area there are triage tents, people dying in ERs waiting to be seen, National Guard deployments to hospitals, cancer and heart surgeries being postponed, and anti-maskers trying to storm schools so that they are all on lockdown. Oh, and a looming deadline where a lot of healthcare workers are going to quit rather than get vaccinated. 
 

 

 

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4 hours ago, ktgrok said:

Whenever I look at the info, I can't help but wonder what if everyone who could did get vaccinated....If 20% of those getting covid are vaccinated, and it reduces rate of infection like we are hearing, we'd be looking at 1/5 as many people getting it. That would mean going from 15% positivity to 3% positivity. That's a HUGE difference. How is it people can't see how much better that would be? Instead they say, "well vaccinated people can get it too" as if their brain works on binary, and they can't conceive that FEWER sick people is better than MORE sick people. 

 

Exactly. I look at this graph of cases per 100,000 people for vaccinated vs unvaccinated (below), and it looks clear to me that if everyone was in the vaccinated group, breakthrough infections would drop even more, because chances of encountering an infection would be so much lower with only 1/5 as many people being infected. Not to mention it’s appearing vaccinated people don’t spread as much if infected.  I really think we’d have a good shot at getting the reproductive number well under one, causing the outbreak to fizzle. It may be we don’t find out for sure until NZ is fully vaccinated and opens up. 

D66D1D14-B794-45C7-949E-721F21678BB8.jpeg

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4 hours ago, ktgrok said:

Whenever I look at the info, I can't help but wonder what if everyone who could did get vaccinated....If 20% of those getting covid are vaccinated, and it reduces rate of infection like we are hearing, we'd be looking at 1/5 as many people getting it. That would mean going from 15% positivity to 3% positivity. That's a HUGE difference. How is it people can't see how much better that would be? Instead they say, "well vaccinated people can get it too" as if their brain works on binary, and they can't conceive that FEWER sick people is better than MORE sick people. 

 

I don't think the numbers work out that way; there is a difference in whether 20% of the people who are getting COVID are vaccinated versus think that 20% of the people who are vaccinated get COVID and 80% of the people who do not get vaccinated get COVID.  So, you can't conclude that 1/5 as many people would get COVID.  And the positivity rate depends upon how wide of a population you are sampling.  If you are only sampling people who are symptomatic or have had exposure, the positivtiy rate could remain high despite falling case rates. 

Another thing that complicates looking at the numbers is whether we are talking about the number of people who have COVID at one point in time versus the number of people who ever have COVID.  It is possible that a high vaccination rate greatly decreases the number of people who have COVID at one time (which helps the medical care being overwhelmed perspective) but does not greatly decrease the number of people who have COVID sometime over a period of months or years.   

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This on the other hand from Vic is … ouch!

 

Mr Andrews outlined the figures put forward by modelling by the Burnet Institute, saying there was no turning back despite the dramatic expected surge in cases and deaths

"On or about the 15 December, cases will peak at about 4,500. Towards the end of December, admissions to hospital will peak at about 3,150, and in January, deaths due to COVID-19 in the Delta variant will peak at around 2,200. These are sobering numbers," he said.

"We are opening up, no doubt about that, and there will be no turning back. We have got to normalise this, we have got to pass through and beyond this pandemic."

Mr Andrews reiterated it was only modelling and a forecast, not a definitive verdict.

"What I'm saying is, modelling is important, it informs you, but it doesn't write the plan. You have to update it, you have to take actual numbers and replace your assumptions with actual data. We will do that, we will refine things, we will consistently update this roadmap," he said.

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54 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I’ve been giving this some thought and I feel like this modelling seems a bit on the pessimistic side?  Anyone else think that?  

I  couldn't decide between pessimistic or realistic. I can understand some of the decisions that the Vic government is making better after reading this.

 I am very sad. 

 

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7 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

Ok, this is funny, in a macabre way. 

NSW Government, not content with reassuring parents with a study that took place when numbers were low and kids were on school holidays, has decided that ventilation aids are not evidence based. 

The Department's ventilation plan is to check windows. Sometime. Maybe in the holidays. 

Ugh 😣 

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1 hour ago, Melissa Louise said:

Ok, this is funny, in a macabre way. 

NSW Government, not content with reassuring parents with a study that took place when numbers were low and kids were on school holidays, has decided that ventilation aids are not evidence based. 

The Department's ventilation plan is to check windows. Sometime. Maybe in the holidays. 

Why? The windows might not be there because they've taken a trip to Hawaii?

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Just now, Ausmumof3 said:

Yeah it’s a weekend number.  But it’s still a big drop from 1500 does feel like things are moving in the right direction for now.

I guess I'm not sure what the mechanism would be for the drop? We're still at less than half the population double dosed, and restrictions are being loosened - so what's behind the drop in numbers? 

Cynically, I think the numbers will be massaged lower before opening. (I know this is conspiracy thinking, so I shouldn't think that way). 

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Saw this article - Covid-19 has now killed as many Americans as the 1918-19 flu pandemic | Coronavirus | The Guardian 

In Australia NSW numbers are still staying lower, 1,022. Victoria has 603. ACT 16.

Don't quite understand what is happening with Victoria and construction. Sounds like a small group of antivaxers are causing trouble. Sad for the rest of them.

 

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8 hours ago, bookbard said:

This story from NZ kind of funny; New Zealand police arrest pair trying to enter Auckland with ‘large amount’ of KFC | New Zealand | The Guardian

But also shows that NZ less beholden to big business than Australia. Can't imagine them shutting down Maccas and KFC here!!

My kids are cracking up right now over “and an undisclosed quantity of fries.”

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UK and EU citizens will be able to travel to the USA from the start of November (assuming they abide by the immigration rules, which include full vaccination with an approved jab). It sounds like OxfordAstrazeneca may become a permitted vaccine in the USA for tourists at the same time.

COVID-19 was the third-highest cause of death in England in August, although there hasn't been the huge rise in hospitalisations that was feared when a lot of the restrictions were dropped mid-July. No big rise in people avoiding hospital has been noted, either. I do wonder if a lot of the people who were having non-fatal hospital visits with COVID-19 in previous months are now tending to get cases they can care for at home instead (if so, then that would explain it due to the total number of deaths falling).

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14 hours ago, bookbard said:

Saw this article - Covid-19 has now killed as many Americans as the 1918-19 flu pandemic | Coronavirus | The Guardian 

In Australia NSW numbers are still staying lower, 1,022. Victoria has 603. ACT 16.

Don't quite understand what is happening with Victoria and construction. Sounds like a small group of antivaxers are causing trouble. Sad for the rest of them.

To be fair, it sounds like proportionally it's still at a third of before. I'm not downplaying the costs... it's just that I think it's relevant. 

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5 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

Poor Melbourne - rising Covid numbers, riots and now an earthquake! 

Hope Vic posters are all ok and no damage. 

 

No damage here. Boy we felt seasick though. Never had an earthquake that big before.   I was amazed how long it went on for. A few minutes.  And how loud lots of rumbling..everything rumbling. Even the trees swaying. We had to abandon schoolwork  for the morning because of all the excitement .

ds 17 work had many tools and things fall off shelving. Dd thought her house was going to fall down on her (has significant structural termite damage but rent free)

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1 minute ago, Melissa in Australia said:

No damage here. Boy we felt seasick though. Never had an earthquake that big before.   I was amazed how long it went on for. A few minutes.  And how loud lots of rumbling..everything rumbling. Even the trees swaying. We had to abandon schoolwork  for the morning because of all the excitement .

ds 17 work had many tools and things fall off shelving. Dd thought her house was going to fall down on her (has significant structural termite damage but rent free)

Glad you didn't have any damage. DD said she thought it was a truck at first. V loud, v unexpected. 

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3 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

Glad you didn't have any damage. DD said she thought it was a truck at first. V loud, v unexpected. 

My ds in Melbourne thought it was an excavator that was working next door driving through his house. The noise and shaking. He said it took a few moments for him to realise it was an earthquake.

earthquakes are so rare that chances of a truck coming through a building is higher

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