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1 minute ago, Carrie12345 said:

I have not seen anyone, anywhere else, make a full year claim, unless you count those who think this is an intentional thing.  2019, sure.  But we’re only in January of 2020.

 

I read the article on FoxNews.com quickly, and I watched a video segment on my Laptop, but if I recall correctly, he is saying they knew about that and where it began, approximately one year ago?   

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DS got home 3 hours ago!  ❤️❤️

Update-  my youngest is not only short of breath, coughing, dizzy, nausaues, and with headache-  she is also confused.  I called our doctor and talked with him and she is going to be going to the ER.

That's not a blanket right.  If my religion required human sacrifice, I can't practice it.  If my religion required sexual assault, I can't practice it. Freedom of religion isn't a blanket right

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4 minutes ago, Lanny said:

 

I read the article on FoxNews.com quickly, and I watched a video segment on my Laptop, but if I recall correctly, he is saying they knew about that and where it began, approximately one year ago?   

I’m not 100% clear what I am or am not permitted to say about the source here. 

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It was all over the news here in TX (and nationally) a few days ago that a student at Texas A&M and another at Baylor University were being quarantined and tested.  Local radio reported yesterday that the CDC had returned negative test for both students.  That (less dramatic) news is a little harder to find than the original stories, but TAMU and BU have confirmed the negative test results on their websites.

 

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Just saw a report that the man in Germany who is confirmed to have coronavirus got it from a co-worker who was in town from China to do a presentation; co-worker became ill on the flight home to China.  The German man became ill several days later.  The German man did not travel to China - indicating person-to-person transmission.

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1 hour ago, Lanny said:

 

I read the article on FoxNews.com quickly, and I watched a video segment on my Laptop, but if I recall correctly, he is saying they knew about that and where it began, approximately one year ago?   

 

It was speculative.  

As I understood it, he said there have been reports of a strange illness for many months. He was speculating that it may have been the current outbreak earlier and also speculating that cases of death attributed to flu may have been this virus.  

That’s certainly possible, and probably would not even take a nefarious cover up to miss something new that resembles other viruses with cold/flu like symptoms.  

My understanding (which may be way off — or from some years back and no longer accurate) is that China has various medical system difficulties, as has USA.  China’s are very different than in USA though and iirc it’s something like people often go to big cities like Wuhan where they can get work — but they can only get medical care in the location that they have their identity cards (or whatever is right term there ) issued.  Maybe someone who reads this and is curious will look up the current rules —or rather the rules as they would have been a month ago, 6 months ago— I assume (hope) in a lock down they’d be taking medical care of people there in Wuhan regardless of where they are from.

 

 

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43 minutes ago, TrixieB said:

Just saw a report that the man in Germany who is confirmed to have coronavirus got it from a co-worker who was in town from China to do a presentation; co-worker became ill on the flight home to China.  The German man became ill several days later.  The German man did not travel to China - indicating person-to-person transmission.

Also confirming transmission before symptoms appear. Meanwhile, airports continue to check for fevers and wave people through who are possibly asymptomatic, yet contagious...

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5 hours ago, Slache said:

I believe there are two different viruses and coronavirus is a cover-up. I'm not a conspiracy theorist by nature but it definitely explains the duality of it. We're sending everyone home except for one person who was picked up by an ambulance and is being treated in a biodome by a robot? It's just the flu but we're out of room to pile the bodies? It's not serious but let's build three new hospitals just in case? No. They're terrified and I don't believe it's what they're saying it is.

Rumors abound, as in most communist countries with government clamps on information flow, that the birds used in their secret  bioweapons research program escaped (or it could have been research animals) and infected other birds in that region and they ended up in the live food market. Basically a huge screwup which the government is covering up, according to gossip and this could be why the highest authorities are even acknowledging the severity of Coronavirus. 
 

None of it could be true, as this is only a rumor that my Chinese friend saw on a Chinese chat channel that she is on. Since China is a powerful communist country, they are capable of lying to save face.

eta: read an article that said half of Wuhan fled before the lockdown. Which is in the millions.

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2 hours ago, Lanny said:

I wonder if the U.S. Government was able to send an aircraft to evacuate the approximately 36 employees of the Consulate in Wuhan and their families to the USA? 

 

Supposed to be “Wednesday” I think.  Presumably tomorrow my time, but internationally days can get confusing. 

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If China is right and that German transmission story gets confirmed and it is transmissible before symptoms appear, then holy crap. That's some bad, bad news.

Hopefully it will all get contained in the next month or so and the number of deaths won't skyrocket, and, all the things we hope. But thinking about this has made me madder than ever at American healthcare. Like, because of the lack of science appointees and the great government downsizing, I read that the US government folks who would usually deal with threats like this literally do not exist right now. We already avoid doctors because of the expense and there's no chance of getting a break if you think you were exposed to this outbreak so there's no reason to go in unless you're rich or sure you have it and are worried about your life. Lots of people will avoid care and detection if it ends up coming here in full. Like, can we just get our healthcare together enough to not all die in a plague? Ugh.

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4 hours ago, Lanny said:

 

I read the article on FoxNews.com quickly, and I watched a video segment on my Laptop, but if I recall correctly, he is saying they knew about that and where it began, approximately one year ago?   

I read somewhere that they've known since Dec 8th of 2019. So, last year but not a year ago.

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Germany is not the first human to human transmission, just the first known case in Europe unless there are others who haven't been reported. Asia has had human to human transmissions and some of them have recovered.

US sources are saying the average incubation period seems to be around 5 days but that is average. It's possible it could be as long as 14 days, which is long, but from what I've been reading that number might not be accurate. If possible, it's probably prudent to behave as if that number is accurate.

Here is a graph that shows how contagious and deadly it is compared to other viruses:

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/the-microbescope-infectious-diseases-in-context/

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On 1/24/2020 at 8:15 AM, BeachGal said:

Virologist Yi Guan is worried. He is a top notch virologist in Hong Kong who helped to identify the coronavirus that caused the SARS outbreaks. He was not terribly worried about SARS but is worried about this virus. People from Wuhan have already traveled for the Chinese New Year. It will be very difficult to contain. Heaven help places like India if it’s there.

The “better” news is that healthier individuals appear to be able to survive it. It can wop the heck out of your lungs, though.

 A few thoughts:

1. I'm glad (perhaps only in this one instance) that China is an authoritarian regime with strong central control.  This is a time when it's good to be able to impose travel bans, curfews, etc.

1.5 I also don't find it surprising that initial reports were perhaps downplayed/minimized. There are some strong cultural factors at work.  Honest bad news isn't very welcome in Chinese culture. 

2. Reportedly, the virus is .12 microns.  N95 masks only filter down to .3 microns.  So, the mask is good to keep you from touching your face, and maybe the virus particles will bounce off sideways, but it suggests that just masking up is going to be of limited benefit in preventing disease transmission.

3. My classes on the history of disease and medicine showed that there's a pretty decent historical background for how epidemics roll out.  The initial cases are small in number but have higher mortality rates. The virus will continue to adapt until it can more safely survive in a population (right, can't replicate if you kill your host too quickly)----more people become infected but have fewer complications, and the cycle goes on. 

4. I suspect that those who have traveled out of Wuhan with the virus who had only mild symptoms of a cold have problably helped it establish roots elsewhere. Spread to countries with poor infrastructure, poor nutrition, and crowded populations (ie India) is especially worrisome. 

5. I'm deeply concerned about a continued rise in xenophobia.  Our girls' elementary school is currently hosting Chinese exchange students. The poor school has been flooded with calls by worried parents.  Our area actually has a lot of Chinese.....I can only imagine how bad it might be for international students/workers in a less diverse area.

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22 minutes ago, BeachGal said:

Germany is not the first human to human transmission, just the first known case in Europe unless there are others who haven't been reported. Asia has had human to human transmissions and some of them have recovered.

US sources are saying the average incubation period seems to be around 5 days but that is average. It's possible it could be as long as 14 days, which is long, but from what I've been reading that number might not be accurate. If possible, it's probably prudent to behave as if that number is accurate.

Here is a graph that shows how contagious and deadly it is compared to other viruses:

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/the-microbescope-infectious-diseases-in-context/

There have been plenty of human to human transmissions. The thing that was alarming was that people were saying it was transmitted during incubation, which is different from SARS and MERS and most corona viruses apparently. And it would mean all the methods of tracking the disease aren't sufficient. The Chinese government says it can be transmitted during incubation. The WHO and other leading groups say, um, we don't think so, but they're clearly unsure.

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37 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

 A few thoughts:

1. I'm glad (perhaps only in this one instance) that China is an authoritarian regime with strong central control.  This is a time when it's good to be able to impose travel bans, curfews, etc.

Except I saw a report that half of the population of Wuhan is gone. So, some would have already left & quite a few more (million) got out before the crackdown?

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22 minutes ago, Farrar said:

There have been plenty of human to human transmissions. The thing that was alarming was that people were saying it was transmitted during incubation, which is different from SARS and MERS and most corona viruses apparently. And it would mean all the methods of tracking the disease aren't sufficient. The Chinese government says it can be transmitted during incubation. The WHO and other leading groups say, um, we don't think so, but they're clearly unsure.

Why not err on the side of caution? And what in the world would that (caution) look like if it's transmittable during incubation?

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Asymptomatic transmission is definitely concerning. Der Spiegel wrote about the case in Germany. The German man caught it during a training session on January 21st. The seminar leader was from Shanghai. She was exposed to the virus when she met days earlier in China with her parents, who are from Wuhan.

I don't know. We'll have to wait and see what happens.

 

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So I was googling the other night when I couldn't sleep.  I didn't save the links but the reports about a year ago aren't about this particular new coronavirus, they're about other coronaviruses.  SARS was one, MERS was one.  All three strains are from bats. 

There was an American lab working with a lab in Wuhan on research on corona viruses that discovered last summer that for some reason bat corona viruses don't need to be mutated to be transmissible to humans. I don't really understand the full implications of that but for some reason American scientists were horrified that the information and banned the American lab from working on the research any more.  This is also where the conspiracy that the disease was man made and leaked from the lab in Wuhan came from.  I suppose any number of people could use that information to create a bioweapon, but I suspect it would be difficult to distribute.  I think it's more likely that the market in Wuhan had a bat colony living somewhere in it, and where there are bats there are droppings and live viruses.  Touch anything with the virus on it, and then touch your face and you'll get infected.

And the concept that the N95 masks don't stop the virus is sort of correct.  A virus is smaller than the holes in the mask.  But at this point they are assuming the virus isn't airborne but is droplet, like other colds or the flu. And if you get hospitalized for the flu, the nurses go in with face masks and paper gowns and paper booties because droplets mean it is spread in mucous.  So if you cough or sneeze, little droplets of snot or saliva contain the virus.  Or if your toilet flushes, little bits of water droplets that get splashed into the air will contain the virus.  But it doesn't float around indefinitely, it only goes about 6 feet and then falls to land on whatever surface is down.  So most transmission of the flu isn't something you breathe in, it's from touching a dirty surface with the virus and then touching a mucous membrane on your own body.  In theory if someone sneezed or coughed in your face, or if you were in a crowded restroom and breathed at the wrong moment when there was a fine spray in the air from flushing a toilet you could get it, but over all that is unlikely.  So stopping you from touching your face does help.  Even using a scarf could help. Still, at this point you are more likely to catch the flu.  And if you're considering sewing a fabric mask you should make many because re-wearing the same one daily would likely make mold spores grow, which is much more likely to make you sick than the virus.

I don't think they really think the incubation/infectious period before symptoms is 14 days, I think that number came from an abundance of caution because they have no idea how long it might be.  They definitely think it has mutated to become more infectious.

There are many youtube videos of people in Wuhan who are saying the numbers are way too low.  One nurse from 3 days ago said something like 19,000 people had asked to be tested.  There's also a very good video from CBC (Canada) with a doctor that said the numbers might be legitimately low becase Wuhan ran out of tests.  So the "official" number is only for the number of tests that they had.  Actually that whole video was pretty good.  I'll try to find it and share it below.

I also saw a couple comments on YouTube videos that said they think the virus has been circulating there for several months because the death tolls have been way up, but they think it was misdiagnosed as the flu previously.  But who knows how accurate that is, or if it was just some trolls.

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1 hour ago, Renai said:

Why not err on the side of caution? And what in the world would that (caution) look like if it's transmittable during incubation?

I'm far from an expert, but I think it just makes it infinitely more difficult to track. And once you're talking about people with no clue they could have been exposed then it gets nigh on impossible unless the whole world just stops. I mean... go to the shop where the virus isn't spreading really yet, touch something someone else touched, rub your eye thoughtlessly then a week later, you're still not showing symptoms, have zero clue you might have been exposed, and you then pass the virus on to a bunch of other people. And so on and so forth.

That's such a different scenario from starting to feel sick and then knowing you must quarantine if you might have been exposed. Even if you don't actually do it, it's still much easier to track who you might have been in contact with.

Health officials in China are certainly acting like they believe it's transmissible in incubation. But who knows. Health officials here say that would be very unusual for a corona virus of this type. But I don't know anything more than that.

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Toward the end of today's CDC press briefing, Drs. Redfield and Fauci at the CDC had this to say when asked about asymptomatic carriers and outbreaks:

Reporter's question: (48:50)

Quote

There seems to be perhaps a conflict between US and Chinese authorities on whether or not this disease is contagious before symptoms appear. What is the CDC saying?

 

Redfield's response (49:00)

Quote

The Chinese have reported evidence of transmission in the asymptomatic phase based on data that they have reviewed. CDC has not been given the opportunity to review that [PRC] data so when we say, what we say is we haven't been able to confirm -- by data -- the impact of transmission during the asymptomatic phase. The Chinese believe they have that data so this is again our hope as we could get more directly involved in China to be able to review and be more definitive. We have a limited experience here as Dr. Messonier said -- five cases. We're evaluating now a number of contacts. In the contacts of those evaluations we are trying to address this issue: is there any evidence of shedding of the virus in any of these contacts before. What we're going to present is the data that we have but we're not necessarily going to affirm someone else's interpretation so that's why you see differences. We haven't seen that data, and can't confirm that conclusion.

 

Fauci's response (50:10)

Quote

To just add one thing that seems to get lost in that question is that as Bob said, and I agree, we would really like to see the [PRC] data because if there is asymptomatic transmission it impacts certain policies eventually regarding screening, etcetera. But the one thing historically people need to realize -- that even if there is some asymptomatic transmission -- in all the history of respiratory borne viruses of any type, asymptomatic transmission has never been the driver of outbreaks. The driver of outbreaks is always a symptomatic person, even if there’s a rare asymptomatic person that might transit. An epidemic is not driven by asymptomatic carriers. "

 

After that, a reporter mentions that WHO announced that China now will accept international help.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5DO91C3KvSo

 

 

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5 hours ago, Pen said:

Supposed to be “Wednesday” I think.  Presumably tomorrow my time, but internationally days can get confusing. 

 

Yes. I read, approximately 2 hours ago, that they are hoping the aircraft can depart from Wuhan on Wednesday morning, China time. That's Tuesday night in the USA. For example, we are on E.S.T. (UTC -5) and there is approximately 12 or 13 hours time change between here and China. So, God willing, the aircraft will depart from Wuhan tonight (USA and Colombia time).

They will fly from Wuhan to Anchorage, AK so the aircraft can be refueled and serviced and so that everyone on the aircraft can be checked and doubled checked, before they fly to the "lower 48".

The  final destination is Ontario, CA and if I assume they will be checked and doubled checked, and, possibly, quarantined.

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All the talk about masks has me curious. I wear glasses. Every time I've worn a mask, my glasses fog up and I can't see, so I end up putting the mask over my mouth and not my nose. Has there been a mask developed that people who wear glasses can use?

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4 minutes ago, wilrunner said:

All the talk about masks has me curious. I wear glasses. Every time I've worn a mask, my glasses fog up and I can't see, so I end up putting the mask over my mouth and not my nose. Has there been a mask developed that people who wear glasses can use?

It’s possibly transmissible through the eyes even with masks.  Videos of people from Wuhan now they are wearing goggles.

 

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1 hour ago, Farrar said:

I'm far from an expert, but I think it just makes it infinitely more difficult to track. And once you're talking about people with no clue they could have been exposed then it gets nigh on impossible unless the whole world just stops. I mean... go to the shop where the virus isn't spreading really yet, touch something someone else touched, rub your eye thoughtlessly then a week later, you're still not showing symptoms, have zero clue you might have been exposed, and you then pass the virus on to a bunch of other people. And so on and so forth.

That's such a different scenario from starting to feel sick and then knowing you must quarantine if you might have been exposed. Even if you don't actually do it, it's still much easier to track who you might have been in contact with.

Health officials in China are certainly acting like they believe it's transmissible in incubation. But who knows. Health officials here say that would be very unusual for a corona virus of this type. But I don't know anything more than that.

The case in Germany was supposed to be transmitted by a business colleague from China who wasn’t showing symptoms before coming to Germany but developed them after leaving I think.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-germany-idUSKBN1ZR057
 

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Australian scientists have managed to grow it in a lab environment meaning they have it available for testing vaccines etc.

they are now advising against unnecessary travel to China here.

apparently it’s difficult for Australia to organise an evacuation due to the fact we don’t have consular assistance available in Wuhan.  
 

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2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

It’s possibly transmissible through the eyes even with masks.  Videos of people from Wuhan now they are wearing goggles.

 

I guess my glasses might be beneficial then for something other than letting me see. 

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I live in a university community with a large population of Chinese international students and DS2 is a student there. It never even occurred to me that some of those students may have been in China during break. I'm not too concerned yet though. I wish we knew the real story of what's happening with this virus. I don't trust the Chinese government at all. The Chinese students are absolutely positive that the Tianammon Square protests never happened because their government told them it didn't.

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38 minutes ago, mom2scouts said:

I live in a university community with a large population of Chinese international students and DS2 is a student there. It never even occurred to me that some of those students may have been in China during break. I'm not too concerned yet though. I wish we knew the real story of what's happening with this virus. I don't trust the Chinese government at all. The Chinese students are absolutely positive that the Tianammon Square protests never happened because their government told them it didn't.

One of the cases here was a student in accommodation.  However sounds like she was pretty proactive about self isolating.

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From CNA https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/wuhan-virus-plane-carrying-japanese-evacuees-lands-in-tokyo-12363826

“TOKYO: A plane carrying Japanese nationals evacuated from Wuhan, the Chinese city at the centre of a new coronavirus outbreak, landed Wednesday (Jan 29) at a Tokyo airport.

An AFP reporter saw the plane arrive at Haneda airport around 8.45am, with officials saying 206 people were on board.

Airport workers wearing face masks immediately began unloading luggage from the aircraft, and several buses pulled up, but there was no immediate sign of passengers leaving the plane.

Earlier, health ministry officials said medical professionals on board the flight would carry out health checks but that there were no plans to quarantine the arriving passengers.

The flight arrives as several countries work to extract their nationals from Wuhan, with an American charter flight also due to leave the city on Wednesday, bound for an airport in the Los Angeles area.

The Japanese flight arrived in Wuhan overnight carrying emergency relief supplies including 15,000 masks, 50,000 pairs of gloves and 8,000 protective glasses, the foreign ministry said.

Around four medical officials were also on board to monitor returning passengers.

Government officials said Tuesday that evacuees would be asked to fill out a health questionnaire and that anyone displaying symptoms on the flight would be taken to hospital immediately upon arrival in Japan.

All passengers were expected to be tested for the new strain of coronavirus, which has killed more than 100 people and infected thousands.

The evacuees would be asked to remain at home and avoid crowds at least until the results of the test were known, officials said.

Those who live in and near Tokyo will be allowed to head home, while those living further away will be taken to local hotels initially.

Japan's health ministry has so far confirmed seven cases of the virus in the country, including one man who had not travelled to China.

The man from the western region of Nara had driven a tour bus with tourists from Wuhan twice in January, the health ministry said.

Japan's foreign ministry says around 650 Japanese nationals in the Wuhan area have asked to be repatriated, and local media reported Wednesday that Tokyo was preparing to send a second charter flight, possibly later Wednesday, to collect more people.

Chinese authorities said Wednesday that the number of confirmed deaths in the outbreak has risen to 132 nationwide, with the confirmed total of infections now nearly 6,000.

More than 50 million people have been locked down in and around Wuhan, the central industrial city where the outbreak first began, in a bid by authorities to stop an infection that has since spread to other cities in China and to other countries.

Chinese President Xi Jinping called the virus a "demon" during talks on Tuesday with the head of the World Health Organization in Beijing, and pledged a "timely" release of updates about the crisis.”

Edited by Arcadia
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2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://amp.theage.com.au/politics/federal/australians-to-be-evacuated-from-wuhan-sent-to-christmas-island-20200129-p53vpw.html#click=https://t.co/bLldJf6dqA
 

apparently the Australians are being sent to Christmas Island detention centre for quarantine.  I can’t imagine how that’s going to be received?  

Americans will be in an airport hangar. But it’s okay, they’re preparing it to screen the Super Bowl.

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3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

apparently it’s difficult for Australia to organise an evacuation due to the fact we don’t have consular assistance available in Wuhan.  
 


From SMH https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australians-to-be-evacuated-from-wuhan-sent-to-christmas-island-20200129-p53vpw.html

“January 29, 2020 — 11.57am

Australians to be evacuated from Wuhan, sent to Christmas Island

Australians trapped in Wuhan will be evacuated and transferred to the Christmas Island detention centre for quarantine as the deadly coronavirus spreads.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison said infants and the elderly were the top priority for the assisted departures, which were announced after cabinet's national security committee signed off on them on Wednesday morning.

"We have taken a decision this morning to prepare a plan for an operation to provide some assisted departures for isolated and vulnerable Australians in Wuhan and the Hubei province," Mr Morrison said in Canberra on Wednesday.

"This will be done subject obviously to working closely and with the authority and approval of the Chinese government".

Mr Morrison said the focus would be on evacuating Australians who do not have established support infrastructure in Wuhan and have been shorter term travellers to that area.

He said he could not guarantee that the operation will succeed, and it will require permission from the Chinese government.

"I also want to stress very clearly that we may not be in a position if we're able to do this on one occasion to do it on another occasion," he said.

Australian consular officials are on their way to the sealed off area from Shanghai to assist with the departure. The evacuation is broader than that being undertaken by the United States.

"There are many complications and many issues that we're going to have to overcome," he said. "I note that the United States has been able to provide assisted departures already, but I stress that has only been for their consular staff and families."

Qantas has offered to fly into the lockdown zone to evacuate the Australians in the city. Up to 400 have registered for consular assistance with the embassy, but it remains unclear if all will be evacuated or willing to go to Christmas Island.

An AUSMAT team of medical professionals trained to deal with disaster zones will meet them on Christmas Island.

Those evacuated will be quarantined on Christmas Island for 14 days.

The Department of Foreign Affairs upgraded its travel advice for all of China on Wednesday morning, urging Australians to reconsider their need to travel to China.

The pneumonia-like coronavirus has now killed 132 people, mostly in China, and as of Wednesday morning had 6,000 confirmed cases.”

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How long does it take to get test results back? In one of my WeChat groups, someone posted a "bulletin" of some sort claiming that "good news! It only takes 2-3 hours" to get test results from a sample. There was other information about how to combat the virus and how it's short lived outside the host, but since the person never confirmed where the information came from (I specifically asked, but in English), I didn't share it.

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Apparently SARS only hit around 8000 confirmed cases worldwide.  This isn’t far off that already.  I’m not sure how the timelines compare.
I have also seen that there are over 1000 people still in critical condition.  That seems high out of 6000 cases?

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7 minutes ago, Renai said:

How long does it take to get test results back? In one of my WeChat groups, someone posted a "bulletin" of some sort claiming that "good news! It only takes 2-3 hours" to get test results from a sample. There was other information about how to combat the virus and how it's short lived outside the host, but since the person never confirmed where the information came from (I specifically asked, but in English), I didn't share it.

 

There’s apparently a quick test, but supplies running out.   

 

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3 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Apparently SARS only hit around 8000 confirmed cases worldwide.  This isn’t far off that already.  I’m not sure how the timelines compare.
I have also seen that there are over 1000 people still in critical condition.  That seems high out of 6000 cases?

Do you remember where you saw this?

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22 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Apparently SARS only hit around 8000 confirmed cases worldwide.  This isn’t far off that already.  I’m not sure how the timelines compare.
I have also seen that there are over 1000 people still in critical condition.  That seems high out of 6000 cases?

 

I heard the same.  I think that’s part of why hospitals are being built.  

Nothing I have heard says whether when people recover from critical from this illness they are permanently severely impaired. 

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28 minutes ago, Slache said:

Do you remember where you saw this?

I saw the same figure (1000 in critical condition) earlier today but now can't find it.  Either the number has been altered, or I'm getting different search results on laptop vs phone.

I was thinking NY Times, CNN, CBS - those are the sites I've read most frequently today.  Possibly Washington Post or LA Times. ETA: Could be The Guardian - forgot I was looking at it earlier.

Edited by TrixieB
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Just now, TrixieB said:

I saw the same figure (1000 in critical condition) earlier today but now can't find it.  Either the number has been altered, or I'm getting different search results on laptop vs phone.

I was thinking NY Times, CNN, CBS - those are the sites I've read most frequently today.  Possibly Washington Post or LA Times.

I'm digging around, too. This is scary stuff!

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15 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Even as reported If accurate it’s kind of concerning.  Death rate seems to be around 1:40 infections which is higher than typical flu.  Will come down to the spread rate and whether they find more effective treatment I guess.

a  well known respectable doctor was on tv here and said that the virus has probably been spreading for way. way longer than Dec.  He said there were reports out of China of a virus causing death since last spring but no explanation or investigation apparently by the Chinese goverment.  They have refused to accept the Centers of Disease Control's help in any way and they are the premier contagious disease prevention agency in the world.  I have seen reports that they have refused other government's offers of help either.   Apparently they were so afraid of social unrest but it is happening because of their actions.

It is a very serious disease and the Chinese are now admitting it.  It causes lung lesions and unlike initial Chinese govt reports, young people are dying too-- by that I mean the not aged and infirmed.   That may very well mean that part of the problem is the immune system ending up killing the people, which is what has happened with some other viruses that primarily affected the young.

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9 hours ago, ashfern said:

I read somewhere that they've known since Dec 8th of 2019. So, last year but not a year ago.

That is what China is saying.  No one in China or who knows about China believes all that much about what they are saying.  They always downplay any type of disaster- be it medical, earthquake or otherwise.   What that probably means is when it was identified, not when it started. 

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7 hours ago, Katy said:

So I was googling the other night when I couldn't sleep.  I didn't save the links but the reports about a year ago aren't about this particular new coronavirus, they're about other coronaviruses.  SARS was one, MERS was one.  All three strains are from bats. 

There was an American lab working with a lab in Wuhan on research on corona viruses that discovered last summer that for some reason bat corona viruses don't need to be mutated to be transmissible to humans. I don't really understand the full implications of that but for some reason American scientists were horrified that the information and banned the American lab from working on the research any more.  This is also where the conspiracy that the disease was man made and leaked from the lab in Wuhan came from.  I suppose any number of people could use that information to create a bioweapon, but I suspect it would be difficult to distribute.  I think it's more likely that the market in Wuhan had a bat colony living somewhere in it, and where there are bats there are droppings and live viruses.  Touch anything with the virus on it, and then touch your face and you'll get infected.

And the concept that the N95 masks don't stop the virus is sort of correct.  A virus is smaller than the holes in the mask.  But at this point they are assuming the virus isn't airborne but is droplet, like other colds or the flu. And if you get hospitalized for the flu, the nurses go in with face masks and paper gowns and paper booties because droplets mean it is spread in mucous.  So if you cough or sneeze, little droplets of snot or saliva contain the virus.  Or if your toilet flushes, little bits of water droplets that get splashed into the air will contain the virus.  But it doesn't float around indefinitely, it only goes about 6 feet and then falls to land on whatever surface is down.  So most transmission of the flu isn't something you breathe in, it's from touching a dirty surface with the virus and then touching a mucous membrane on your own body.  In theory if someone sneezed or coughed in your face, or if you were in a crowded restroom and breathed at the wrong moment when there was a fine spray in the air from flushing a toilet you could get it, but over all that is unlikely.  So stopping you from touching your face does help.  Even using a scarf could help. Still, at this point you are more likely to catch the flu.  And if you're considering sewing a fabric mask you should make many because re-wearing the same one daily would likely make mold spores grow, which is much more likely to make you sick than the virus.

I don't think they really think the incubation/infectious period before symptoms is 14 days, I think that number came from an abundance of caution because they have no idea how long it might be.  They definitely think it has mutated to become more infectious.

There are many youtube videos of people in Wuhan who are saying the numbers are way too low.  One nurse from 3 days ago said something like 19,000 people had asked to be tested.  There's also a very good video from CBC (Canada) with a doctor that said the numbers might be legitimately low becase Wuhan ran out of tests.  So the "official" number is only for the number of tests that they had.  Actually that whole video was pretty good.  I'll try to find it and share it below.

I also saw a couple comments on YouTube videos that said they think the virus has been circulating there for several months because the death tolls have been way up, but they think it was misdiagnosed as the flu previously.  But who knows how accurate that is, or if it was just some trolls.

Wrong, they sell bats to eat in that market/  they sell all kinds of anumals

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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Apparently SARS only hit around 8000 confirmed cases worldwide.  This isn’t far off that already.  I’m not sure how the timelines compare.
I have also seen that there are over 1000 people still in critical condition.  That seems high out of 6000 cases?

Not with lung lesions

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So for those who know way more than me about disease spread (everyone)...  Once a disease becomes worldwide and at epidemic level, what causes it to naturally die off?  Is it that people start gaining immunity to it?  How long does that take?  

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one other question I have is after people are symptom free is that the end of contagion.  I know with norovirus and some others you can continue to spread it even after the vomiting is over if you aren’t careful with hand washing etc  Does anyone know if that’s a likely scenario?

Edited by Ausmumof3
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USA CBS news?  Link not working again, but can cut and paste a section

 

“Death toll rises to 132, with more than 5,900 confirmed cases in China

.... 

Officials also reported 1,459 new confirmed cases, bringing the total to 5,974. More than 1,200 of those cases are considered "critical."”

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Pen said:

USA CBS news?  Link not working again, but can cut and paste a section

 

“Death toll rises to 132, with more than 5,900 confirmed cases in China

.... 

Officials also reported 1,459 new confirmed cases, bringing the total to 5,974. More than 1,200 of those cases are considered "critical."”

 

 

Yes, that's it

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/china-coronavirus-outbreak-us-plans-wuhan-evacuation-death-toll-number-cases-rises-today-2020-01-28/#post-update-9a2a718f

 

Edited by TrixieB
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And a sixth case for Australia 

https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-outbreak-australians-to-be-airlifted-from-wuhan/21b5ae60-a35b-4d26-a902-dc27f8c7bec3

they are now saying anyone returning from Hubei must be isolated for 14 days and anyone whose had contact with confirmed cases needs to be isolated 14 days.  They believe at least one contact passed on the virus two days before showing symptoms. And considering revising policies about school attendance 

Edited by Ausmumof3
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