wuhan - coronavirus

[popmom]

 

“The Pandemic’s True Death Toll”

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates

Edited September 2, 2021 by popmom

[kbutton]

3 hours ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I guess this would be a better way to see local flu rates.  https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/usmap.htm

This one shows minimal flu risk my area so you are probably right about the SM activity skewing results.  I got my flu shot in September last year as well due to Covid risks. 

We were early last year, but it's because we heard there might be shortages of the flu vaccine.

DH's pet peeve at his old job is that they required them to get the shot at work, but at work, they gave the trivalent instead of the quadrivalent, and they gave it way too early for our area. I had to hear this every year, lol! Not sure what the new job does about this. 

[kbutton]

2 hours ago, ktgrok said:

Thank you! I'm already at moderate, so next time I am in a place with shots i'll likely get one. 

The kids didn't last year, as those can only be done at the pediatrician's office, and taking well kids who don't go anywhere or see anyone into a place full of germs seemed counterproductive, lol. we shall see what we do this year. 

I SO wish kids could get flu shots at say, Target or other pharmacies in my state!

Little Clinic does vaccines for kids--they might be limited by who is on duty or by some age groups, but my kids have been getting shots there for years. They also are better at giving shots than most pharmacy employees (in my experience). 

[Longtime Lurker]

3 hours ago, ktgrok said:

Thank you! I'm already at moderate, so next time I am in a place with shots i'll likely get one. 

The kids didn't last year, as those can only be done at the pediatrician's office, and taking well kids who don't go anywhere or see anyone into a place full of germs seemed counterproductive, lol. we shall see what we do this year. 

I SO wish kids could get flu shots at say, Target or other pharmacies in my state!

Last year my son's doctor's office did drive-up flu shots (by appointment). My son has autism and cognitive delays and it was the most wonderful thing for him. We were also able to arrange to have both of his covid shots (last spring) while still in the car. His doctor said their office will probably do flu shots that way again this year, but that they will do drive-up for him no matter what. I have decided that he will have all shots this way for the rest of his life 🙂

[Melissa in Australia]

1 hour ago, popmom said:

 

“The Pandemic’s True Death Toll”

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates

I cannot access the link. Paywall I guess

[popmom]

17 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

I cannot access the link. Paywall I guess

Ugh. I was hoping they would let this one be a freeby. It’s so much info and graphs and such, it’s not possible to pull out a succinct quote. 

[Melissa in Australia]

Numbers from NSW are not good at all 1431 new cases, 12 deaths close to 1000 in hospital

[Melissa Louise]

24 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

Numbers from NSW are not good at all 1431 new cases, 12 deaths close to 1000 in hospital

The numbers are just going to get higher and higher. I've given up on checking them each day. I know what happened in the UK last year, so I know where we're headed, and it's no place good. So I try not to think about it. 

We'll be reaching a point soon where they won't announce daily numbers. They've already pretty much ditched contract tracing. 

[lewelma]

Down to 28 cases today.  So something like 65, 84,87,49,48,72,49,28 for the daily numbers for the last week. Of the 49 yesterday, 50% were family members (most of whom are in MIQ or completely self isolating and having food brought to them), and 30% were known close contacts in isolation. So we are only really tracking 10 people in the community. Crossing fingers that Auckland can maintain the course. 

Also, for a country that has never had masks (we eliminated back before masks were a thing), my city (which has no community cases) has had about 95% mask wearing. I would say 1 in 20 or even 1 in 50 are not wearing them in the city. And this is just a 'please do' and not a mandate. So lots of compliance here. 

I will also have a shout out to the Pacifica community who has borne the brunt of this outbreak. The Auckland Pacifica Assembly of God Church has done an amazing job getting everyone tested and isolated. Without their help and compliance, there would be no way to beat this thing. 

Edited September 3, 2021 by lewelma

[Bootsie]

2 hours ago, popmom said:

Ugh. I was hoping they would let this one be a freeby. It’s so much info and graphs and such, it’s not possible to pull out a succinct quote. 

I was able to view it, I think, just as a registered guest with an email.  Overall, it is estimating that excess deaths since the beginning of COVID worldwide are probably about 3 times higher than the reported COVID deaths.  The disparity between reported COVID deaths and estimated excess deaths per country is really interesting.  

[Laura Corin]

3 hours ago, Melissa in Australia said:

I cannot access the link. Paywall I guess

The Economist allowed me to register without payment. I don't know if there's a limit on the number of articles per month or if they are releasing their Covid stuff more widely. 

[Ausmumof3]

Some good news - UK are sending us 4,000,000 doses of pfizer - this should be a really good boost to the rollout.

I haven’t had a chance to check numbers much today - thanks to those who updated.  Sadly the death rates now like reflect cases from a couple of weeks ago so it’s not going to be good soon. 
 

Most epi people seem to agree that 70% is the wrong figure to aim for and will likely result in people being unable to access emergency for non Covid stuff.  I hope the government changes direction soon.

[SoCal_Bear]

For those thinking about timing the flu vax, it take two weeks for you to build up your antibodies, then you get about 2 months of peak levels because it starts to wane.

 

[Corraleno]

5 hours ago, Melissa in Australia said:

I cannot access the link. Paywall I guess

This shows their estimate of excess deaths (which would include deaths that were indirectly caused by covid, such as overwhelmed hospitals, reluctance to seek medical help, postponed treatments, etc.). Their models show that the true toll is likely between 9 & 18 million, with their "best guess" estimate around 15 million. They estimate that US excess deaths are between 760K & 830K (the official count is ~640) and suggest that covid deaths in Africa and Asia (particularly China & India) are vastly underreported, but that counts for the EU are fairly accurate. Their estimates for Russia are roughly triple what they are reporting officially.

Edited September 3, 2021 by Corraleno

[bookbard]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Most epi people seem to agree that 70% is the wrong figure to aim for and will likely result in people being unable to access emergency for non Covid stuff.  I hope the government changes direction soon.

Well, NSW is at 70% now and we're still locked down. I honestly think half the numbers they're throwing around are made up to placate people (just a bit longer . . . just a bit longer) because case numbers are rising, not falling. I wish they'd give us a sense of when we can expect numbers to fall, and whether vaccination rates will see a proper drop in numbers at any point. Is there anywhere that says how many vaccinated vs unvaccinated are falling ill or hospitalised in NSW?

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, bookbard said:

Well, NSW is at 70% now and we're still locked down. I honestly think half the numbers they're throwing around are made up to placate people (just a bit longer . . . just a bit longer) because case numbers are rising, not falling. I wish they'd give us a sense of when we can expect numbers to fall, and whether vaccination rates will see a proper drop in numbers at any point. Is there anywhere that says how many vaccinated vs unvaccinated are falling ill or hospitalised in NSW?

Isn’t that only first dose though?

I think from what we’ve seen in Israel etc that without restrictions even high rates of vaccination plus delta see rising cases.  The drop in cases in Israel was with masking and restrictions in place.  Norman Swan helpfully pointed out in today’s podcast that healthcare and border workers who were the first vaccinated in March are probably due for boosters about now.  😬. If 70pc vaccination of eligible would achieve falling vax rates it’s going to be 2 weeks after the second dose so about a month from now.  Most epidemiologists are saying that’s not enough at all it’s more like 80 or even 90 pc and if that’s not evenly spread through the population it still may not work because you might have pockets where it sweeps through pushing up numbers.

I’m sorry if that is not a positive answer but in terms of the information we have right now that’s how it looks to me.  

Edited September 3, 2021 by Ausmumof3

[Laura Corin]

1 hour ago, bookbard said:

Well, NSW is at 70% now and we're still locked down. I honestly think half the numbers they're throwing around are made up to placate people (just a bit longer . . . just a bit longer) because case numbers are rising, not falling. I wish they'd give us a sense of when we can expect numbers to fall, and whether vaccination rates will see a proper drop in numbers at any point. Is there anywhere that says how many vaccinated vs unvaccinated are falling ill or hospitalised in NSW?

70 percent of population or 70 percent of adults, or other?

[bookbard]

23 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Isn’t that only first dose though?

 

Oh yeah, good point.

 

6 minutes ago, Laura Corin said:

70 percent of population or 70 percent of adults, or other?

Over age 16. They're starting 12-15yr olds this month I believe. My kids are younger though. 

[Laura Corin]

3 minutes ago, bookbard said:

Over age 16. They're starting 12-15yr olds this month I believe. My kids are younger though. 

Delta is just a beast, but high rates of vaccination seem to make a difference. 

[vonfirmath]

7 hours ago, calbear said:

For those thinking about timing the flu vax, it take two weeks for you to build up your antibodies, then you get about 2 months of peak levels because it starts to wane.

 

The flu vax only lasts for two months?!

That's -- I'm not sure I can credit getting the vax for not getting the flu given this. No wonder so many have the flu after the vax -- the vax does not last very long at all.

 

[catz]

16 minutes ago, vonfirmath said:

The flu vax only lasts for two months?!

That's -- I'm not sure I can credit getting the vax for not getting the flu given this. No wonder so many have the flu after the vax -- the vax does not last very long at all.

 

I don't think it's entirely accurate to say this.  Flu mutates quickly.  So it is possible that it's not the best match by the end of flu season.  And antibodies wane.  But they wane slowly over time.  Most sources say protection is good for 6 months.  Obviously this can vary by strains, personal immune system health, etc.  We try to time ours for late October/early November time frame.  

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/how-long-does-the-flu-shot-last

We have had the flu several years here (verified, tested, did theraflu once - did nothing) years we weren't on top of it.  And have never gotten it when we have gotten the flu shot.  My kids have always done germy activities.  Dance or gymnastics with younger kids is the worst!  I highly doubt that is coincidence.  

There are those that would probably benefit from a flu booster.  I know they have a stronger dosing option for older people available some places.  And I do think especially for some people getting it super early isn't the best.

Even if you develop the flu after the vaccine, you are less likely to be very sick or hospitalized.  One time over the holidays the kids and I had the flu.  Full week+ high fever, it was typically awful. Touch and go a couple nights on kid's fevers.  My husband did have the flu shot and he got it.  But was done in like 2 days, just low grade fever, tired, not a huge deal.  

[SoCal_Bear]

52 minutes ago, vonfirmath said:

The flu vax only lasts for two months?!

That's -- I'm not sure I can credit getting the vax for not getting the flu given this. No wonder so many have the flu after the vax -- the vax does not last very long at all.

 

peak levels. then it starts to decline. It doesn't vanish...just becomes less effective over time. Quite similar to Covid vax.

Definitely it is also because flu virus mutates quickly. Again, similar to Covid.

We are in a very mild winter area so it's often summer weather through October...so we aim for flu vax in November so that we have peak overlapping with the holidays.

https://www.healthline.com/health/cold-flu/how-long-does-flu-shot-last#when-to-get-it
 

Edited September 3, 2021 by calbear

[Wheres Toto]

6 hours ago, Laura Corin said:

Delta is just a beast, but high rates of vaccination seem to make a difference. 

 

 

 

 

I'm really hoping this holds true. 

My town has 71% of all ages fully vaccinated.   Most of my county is in the 60's for fully vaccinated across all ages/70's for eligible.   

We don't have a full indoor mask mandate but we do for schools.   Some schools started this week so we should get a feel in the next week or so how that's going.  Our cases have been on a downward trend for the past week or so, hopefully that will continue.  

[WildflowerMom]

Do y’all know the early signs of covid delta?   Are they any different than original covid?   I’m not feeling great.  Stabbing ear pain and I took an imitrex thinking migraine, but it’s still happening off and on, only one ear though.   Throat and upper chest feeling wonky now.   

[Melissa Louise]

2 minutes ago, WildflowerMom said:

Do y’all know the early signs of covid delta?   Are they any different than original covid?   I’m not feeling great.  Stabbing ear pain and I took an imitrex thinking migraine, but it’s still happening off and on, only one ear though.   Throat and upper chest feeling wonky now.   

Runny nose 

Sore throat 

Headache 

Top three symptoms we are being told to watch for. 

 

 

 

 

 

[bookbard]

I saw that some advisory group in the UK (to the govt) are not recommending vaccination for 12-15 yr olds? I'm surprised. Even though the risk of severe disease from covid is low for that age group, it's still higher than the side effects from the vaccine. 

[whitestavern]

40 minutes ago, WildflowerMom said:

Do y’all know the early signs of covid delta?   Are they any different than original covid?   I’m not feeling great.  Stabbing ear pain and I took an imitrex thinking migraine, but it’s still happening off and on, only one ear though.   Throat and upper chest feeling wonky now.   

I know a family of four that had it (2 vaxxed and 2 unvaxxed). Their symptoms were either gastrointestinal or flu like (the gastro symptoms were in one of the unvaxxed). 

[Ausmumof3]

190 cases for Vic.

QLD is back on the radar.  A child that was close contact of a truck driver from NSW contracted it and has been in childcare.

[bookbard]

8 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

 A child that was close contact of a truck driver from NSW contracted it and has been in childcare.

Maybe they need to prioritise truckie vaccination - there's been a lot of issues there.

[Ausmumof3]

1 minute ago, bookbard said:

Maybe they need to prioritise truckie vaccination - there's been a lot of issues there.

Yep we have two exposure sites at hotels today and they are really busy hotels.  I think once you have a massive outbreak in one state it becomes very hard to control/isolate to be honest.  Things worked best when the country had an overall zero Covid approach.  

[WildflowerMom]

2 hours ago, Melissa Louise said:

Runny nose 

Sore throat 

Headache 

Top three symptoms we are being told to watch for. 

 

 

 

 

 

I think mine is my ear, possibly a sinus thing.   It’s crazy now because every little thing makes me think ‘covid’.  

[Melissa Louise]

51 minutes ago, WildflowerMom said:

I think mine is my ear, possibly a sinus thing.   It’s crazy now because every little thing makes me think ‘covid’.  

Ikr, so difficult to tell with such nondescript symptoms.  Hope you feel better soon. 

[Ausmumof3]

1533 for NSW.

32 for ACT.

I’m Father’s Day shopping (I know!  So disorganised). The shops are insane and I’m just trying to leave because it feels so unsafe.

At least most people masking but density is insane.

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-04/warnings-of-an-online-delivery-crisis-because-of-covid/100433624
 

Online delivery and supermarket stocking warehouse are facing major issues with the number of people self isolating in NSW.

“From 9:00am Sunday until Tuesday, Australia Post will not collect regular post parcels from e-commerce retailers in New South Wales, Victoria and the ACT.

The temporary pause comes after 500 employees of the postal service were ordered into self-isolation by local health authorities.”

[Melissa Louise]

.My supermarket this am.

 

[KSera]

10 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

.My supermarket this am.

 

That’s like where we were last Spring 😔. 

[Ausmumof3]

25 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

.My supermarket this am.

 

Insane!  

[Melissa Louise]

Just now, Ausmumof3 said:

Insane!  

Yep. 

Shelves noticeably barer here over the last fortnight, but this was quite extreme!

[Ausmumof3]

5 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

Yep. 

Shelves noticeably barer here over the last fortnight, but this was quite extreme!

Here at the markets they can hardly give some fresh produce away.  Meat prices are through the roof though other than chicken.

[lewelma]

Down to 20. Crossing fingers.

[Melissa in Australia]

1 hour ago, Melissa Louise said:

.My supermarket this am.

 

is it because of restocking problems?

or are people still panic buying?

[Melissa Louise]

1 hour ago, Melissa in Australia said:

is it because of restocking problems?

or are people still panic buying?

Restocking issues, I think. 

Luckily I can live off my fat for a bit 😂

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/07/clues-about-mis-c-and-covid-19-kids/619447/
 

Can we talk a little bit about the super antigen thing?  

https://twitter.com/fitterhappieraj/status/1432689957794205702?s=21

 

If I understand this guy correctly he thinks that every time people get reinfected it will further deplete/damage T cells and we will get sicker not less sick?   He has a lot of tweets but I’m not sure if I’m fully getting my head around it.

[busymama7]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/07/clues-about-mis-c-and-covid-19-kids/619447/
 

Can we talk a little bit about the super antigen thing?  

https://twitter.com/fitterhappieraj/status/1432689957794205702?s=21

 

If I understand this guy correctly he thinks that every time people get reinfected it will further deplete/damage T cells and we will get sicker not less sick?   He has a lot of tweets but I’m not sure if I’m fully getting my head around it.

Anecdotally, on the covid support groups those who have had it more than once concur with this.  In every case that has shared the second (or third!) Cases were worse.  In my own case if I did in fact have in in Feb 2020 when a family member lost taste and smell for a long time, then my second case was multiple times worse. Q lot worse.  

[ktgrok]

In good news, Florida seems to be doing better - down to around 15-16% positivity. Same with my county, a bit higher in next county over and in my parent's county, but also trending down. 

[Corraleno]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/07/clues-about-mis-c-and-covid-19-kids/619447/
 

Can we talk a little bit about the super antigen thing?  

https://twitter.com/fitterhappieraj/status/1432689957794205702?s=21

 

If I understand this guy correctly he thinks that every time people get reinfected it will further deplete/damage T cells and we will get sicker not less sick?   He has a lot of tweets but I’m not sure if I’m fully getting my head around it.

 

AJ Leonardi is an immunologist at Johns Hopkins who has published in peer-review journals on immunology in general and T-cells in particular. A lot of what he writes is very technical and totally over my head, but basically he believes (along with other scientists) that SARS-CoV-2 has a superantigen — something that can simultaneously evade T-cells while also triggering them to attack other parts of the body. This theory could explain MIS-C, cytokine storms, and the auto-immune component of long covid.

He argues that the claim "we don't need boosters when antibodies wane, because we have T-cells for back up" is false when dealing with a virus that can not only evade T-cells but actually weaponize them. He says that antibodies are absolutely critical in fighting off SARS-CoV-2, because circulating antibodies can rapidly knock out the virus before it has a chance to create an army of confused T-cells that will attack the body instead of the virus. 

I haven't been able to find any scholarly articles addressing the question of whether subsequent infections would be worse, but I'm guessing the idea is that if the initial infection is allowed to get to the point where T-cells have already been "trained" to attack the body, then maybe subsequent infections can re-trigger that response? I don't know, I'd love to see an article written for nonscientists that explains the issues with superantigens in plain English.

 

[Not_a_Number]

6 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

 

AJ Leonardi is an immunologist at Johns Hopkins who has published in peer-review journals on immunology in general and T-cells in particular. A lot of what he writes is very technical and totally over my head, but basically he believes (along with other scientists) that SARS-CoV-2 has a superantigen — something that can simultaneously evade T-cells while also triggering them to attack other parts of the body. This theory could explain MIS-C, cytokine storms, and the auto-immune component of long covid.

He argues that the claim "we don't need boosters when antibodies wane, because we have T-cells for back up" is false when dealing with a virus that can not only evade T-cells but actually weaponize them. He says that antibodies are absolutely critical in fighting off SARS-CoV-2, because circulating antibodies can rapidly knock out the virus before it has a chance to create an army of confused T-cells that will attack the body instead of the virus. 

I haven't been able to find any scholarly articles addressing the question of whether subsequent infections would be worse, but I'm guessing the idea is that if the initial infection is allowed to get to the point where T-cells have already been "trained" to attack the body, then maybe subsequent infections can re-trigger that response? I don't know, I'd love to see an article written for nonscientists that explains the issues with superantigens in plain English.

 

Hmmmm. I wonder how that would work with the fact that natural immunity seems to be highly effective, though? 

[Corraleno]

18 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Hmmmm. I wonder how that would work with the fact that natural immunity seems to be highly effective, though? 

I'm guessing he means that repeat infections are likely to make things worse in some subset of people, but not everyone? Obviously not all children who get covid develop MIS-C, and not all adults who get covid become severely ill due to cytokine storms or develop long covid, so it seems like there must be some  predisposing factors (like "leaky gut" with MIS-C, or genetic "interferon errors" that Leonardi mentioned in one tweet). I don't know, I can't find any good articles about this that aren't extremely technical and way over my head. 

This is the level of technical detail in the articles I'm finding on superantigens (this one is about the superantigen that causes toxic shock syndrome, which researchers have said is similar to the process that causes MIS-C): "These protein toxins bind directly to specific Vβ regions of T-cell receptors (TCR) and major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class II on antigen-presenting cells, resulting in hyperactivation of T lymphocytes and monocytes/macrophages. Activated host cells produce excessive amounts of proinflammatory cytokines and chemokines, especially tumor necrosis factor α, interleukin 1 (IL-1), IL-2, interferon γ (IFNγ), and macrophage chemoattractant protein 1 causing clinical symptoms of fever, hypotension, and shock. Because of superantigen-induced T cells skewed toward TH1 helper cells, and the induction of proinflammatory cytokines, superantigens can exacerbate autoimmune diseases. Upon TCR/MHC ligation, pathways induced by superantigens include the mitogen-activated protein kinase cascades and cytokine receptor signaling, resulting in activation of NFκB and the phosphoinositide 3-kinase/mammalian target of rapamycin pathways."

That might as well be Ancient Greek to me!

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, Corraleno said:

I'm guessing he means that repeat infections are likely to make things worse in some subset of people, but not everyone? Obviously not all children who get covid develop MIS-C, and not all adults who get covid become severely ill due to cytokine storms or develop long covid, so it seems like there must be some  predisposing factors (like "leaky gut" with MIS-C, or genetic "interferon errors" that Leonardi mentioned in one tweet). I don't know, I can't find any good articles about this that aren't extremely technical and way over my head. 

This is the level of technical detail in the articles I'm finding on superantigens (this one is about the superantigen that causes toxic shock syndrome, which researchers have said is similar to the process that causes MIS-C): "These protein toxins bind directly to specific Vβ regions of T-cell receptors (TCR) and major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class II on antigen-presenting cells, resulting in hyperactivation of T lymphocytes and monocytes/macrophages. Activated host cells produce excessive amounts of proinflammatory cytokines and chemokines, especially tumor necrosis factor α, interleukin 1 (IL-1), IL-2, interferon γ (IFNγ), and macrophage chemoattractant protein 1 causing clinical symptoms of fever, hypotension, and shock. Because of superantigen-induced T cells skewed toward TH1 helper cells, and the induction of proinflammatory cytokines, superantigens can exacerbate autoimmune diseases. Upon TCR/MHC ligation, pathways induced by superantigens include the mitogen-activated protein kinase cascades and cytokine receptor signaling, resulting in activation of NFκB and the phosphoinositide 3-kinase/mammalian target of rapamycin pathways."

That might as well be Ancient Greek to me!

Yes me too!  Your explanation was helpful though to clarify the fuzzy picture I had in my head.  If I understand right basically the virus attacks the T-cells in the centre away from the part that recognises the virus so the T-cells can’t specifically develop a response to the virus so they do a massive overreaction instead?

[Ausmumof3]

3 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

Hmmmm. I wonder how that would work with the fact that natural immunity seems to be highly effective, though? 

You would expect short term immunity to be strong thanks to antibodies but longer term as antibodies wane the T-cells wouldn’t be as effective and the virus would deplete then over the course of future infections.  I’m not sure how long natural immunity is lasting. Do we know that?