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gardenmom5

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https://medium.com/@matt_11659/australian-public-fed-nonsense-as-country-heads-to-irreversible-decision-99350b80125c
 

Some discussion around the Doherty Institute modelling for Australia

“It doesn’t look like anyone has actually read the report.

They only run the simulation for 180 days.

1*mYYSqqlOGiV7C1ISmVWmvA.png?q=20
1*mYYSqqlOGiV7C1ISmVWmvA.png
Source: Doherty Report.

For example, looking at daily new infections, the new infections per day don’t even peak before the model cuts off at 180 days for the 80% vaccine coverage scenario:

1*ntjcKHIgccx3QFPln_20aw.png?q=20
1*ntjcKHIgccx3QFPln_20aw.png
Figure 1: The modeling only goes for 180 days, making the high vaccination scenarios look better Source: Doherty Report.

So the model is producing garbage.

They’ve simply stopped the simulation before the effects of opening up play out.

There’s no reason I can think of to cut a model off at 180 days other than to fudge the data. Furthermore, respiratory viruses are seasonal and you’ll have different results whether the 180 days are in summer or winter.”

 

Ugh!

 

 

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2 hours ago, ktgrok said:

Tests at the county or state run sites are free. Tests at a pharmacy are free, but it can take days to get an appointment - was 4 days last I checked. An urgent care or doctors office can do them, and the test may be free, but the appointment may not be - at a regular doctor's office you will pay an exam fee. Over the counter tests are about 20 bucks for a 2 pack. 

Yes. We paid our co-pay for the appointment. Ouch

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882 for NSW. 2 deaths, both had had a single dose of the vaccine. Not super familiar with NSW suburbs but apparently Camden and Penrith are having higher cases and may be added to LGAs of concern if things don’t improve. HSC exams are being delayed for Yr 12 in NSW to November.

Vic had 79 cases. 19 in quarantine.

Re schools going back in NSW.

  • Kindergarten and Year 1 students will return from October 25
  • Year 2, 6 and 11 will return from November 1
  • Year 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9 and 10 will return from November 8

Year 12 students are already able to return to classrooms in a limited way and this will continue for the remainder of term three. Year 12s will have full-time access to school campuses from October 25.

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Just now, Melissa Louise said:

I will feel somewhat better knowing that. I return Oct 25 - still reserving judgement depending on conditions of return. Will quit if kids aren't masked, at a minimum. 

Sounds like they are really emphasising masking so that should be good.  I’m disappointed about the total lack I’d focus on ventilation in Australia - feels like we’re a long way behind on this than the rest of the world. 

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re mitigation in schools -
We will return to our level three COVID restriction settings with all school principals aware of that, [they have been] in place for some time."

"What it will mean [is] things like staggering break times, not mixing your group cohorts, not having assemblies, band, choir, those activities were children might gather together, we won't have any external visitors to school site and the mask wearing is a really important element."

"Mandatory mask-wearing for all our staff and school sites. Mandatory mask-wearing for all high school students and for the first time we will strongly encourage our primary school students to wear masks

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1 minute ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Sounds like they are really emphasising masking so that should be good.  I’m disappointed about the total lack I’d focus on ventilation in Australia - feels like we’re a long way behind on this than the rest of the world. 

Yes. I have seen it mentioned in a few department bits and pieces, but it's not front and centre. 

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Just now, Ausmumof3 said:

re mitigation in schools -
We will return to our level three COVID restriction settings with all school principals aware of that, [they have been] in place for some time."

"What it will mean [is] things like staggering break times, not mixing your group cohorts, not having assemblies, band, choir, those activities were children might gather together, we won't have any external visitors to school site and the mask wearing is a really important element."

"Mandatory mask-wearing for all our staff and school sites. Mandatory mask-wearing for all high school students and for the first time we will strongly encourage our primary school students to wear masks

Strongly encourage in primary is weak. They need to mandate (other than for those kids who can't). 

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2 hours ago, wathe said:

Pleated disposable earloop procedure masks.  A level below true surgical masks.  Definitely not fancy!

N95 reserved for AGMP's (aerosol generating medical procedures) only.

IMG_6367.jpeg

Clearly those have been pretty effective where you are, but there was a UK study of healthcare workers that found a big improvement when they went from surgical masks for everything but AGP to FFP3 for everything. One of the things is that studies of aerosol generation itself show that there are a lot of activities that actually produce more aerosols than the things that are classified as aerosol generating procedures. just talking produces a large amount of aerosols.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57636360

It’s just one study and the study needs to be replicated, but the results were fairly compelling. Doesn’t indicate surgical masks didn’t work to reduce infections, just that better masks work even better.

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15 minutes ago, KSera said:

Clearly those have been pretty effective where you are, but there was a UK study of healthcare workers that found a big improvement when they went from surgical masks for everything but AGP to FFP3 for everything. One of the things is that studies of aerosol generation itself show that there are a lot of activities that actually produce more aerosols than the things that are classified as aerosol generating procedures. just talking produces a large amount of aerosols.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57636360

It’s just one study and the study needs to be replicated, but the results were fairly compelling. Doesn’t indicate surgical masks didn’t work to reduce infections, just that better masks work even better.

Yes.  Our mask policy is based on both efficacy and resource management.  N95's are significantly more expensive, still not plentiful, and hard to work in.  I think the thinking  is that good enough is good enough, and upgrading to n95 all the time for everything fails a cost/benefit analysis.  There are lots of HCW who aren't happy about it (myself included).

The point I'm making is that surgical masks aren't useless - they're actually pretty good.

 No doubt that properly worn, fit-tested n95 is better.)

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10 minutes ago, wathe said:

Yes.  Our mask policy is based on both efficacy and resource management.  N95's are significantly more expensive, still not plentiful, and hard to work in.  I think the thinking  is that good enough is good enough, and upgrading to n95 all the time for everything fails a cost/benefit analysis.  There are lots of HCW who aren't happy about it (myself included).

The point I'm making is that surgical masks aren't useless - they're actually pretty good.

 No doubt that properly worn, fit-tested n95 is better.)

Yeah I don’t think they’re useless I just don’t think in the context of schools as worn by primary students they’re enough on their own.

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Anyone else in Mere Motherhood on Facebook?  It’s been pretty anti vax for a while other than a few brave souls.  Today there is a thread on which many people share their experiences with the virus and how terrible it was and how they have anxiety and depression afterwards and yet… still no one is saying - maybe we should have vaccinated.  Instead there’s all this “I believe there’s a spiritual element to this virus”.  Um… no.  It’s a neurological biological thing that can be observed scientifically.  I know my theology is not very mainstream but this is something I just can’t get my head around at all.

 

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7 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Yeah I don’t think they’re useless I just don’t think in the context of schools as worn by primary students they’re enough on their own.

Combined with good ventilation and not crowding, they are probably the best possible realistic option at a population level though.  Cheap, easily available, easy to tolerate, and pretty good efficacy.   Teacher can have a box of spares on her desk.

N95's on primary students probably aren't realistic, I don't think:  expensive, uncomfortable, and require fitting.  Some families will go through the trouble and expense of finding a good respirator-style mask for their kid (n95, kn94, happy mask, whatever), and some kids will be able to tolerate them - but not very many will go through the trouble and expense, I don't think.

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11 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Anyone else in Mere Motherhood on Facebook?  It’s been pretty anti vax for a while other than a few brave souls.  Today there is a thread on which many people share their experiences with the virus and how terrible it was and how they have anxiety and depression afterwards and yet… still no one is saying - maybe we should have vaccinated.  Instead there’s all this “I believe there’s a spiritual element to this virus”.  Um… no.  It’s a neurological biological thing that can be observed scientifically.  I know my theology is not very mainstream but this is something I just can’t get my head around at all.

 

For real.  You can't make this stuff up.

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Just now, wathe said:

Combined with good ventilation and not crowding, they are probably the best possible realistic option at a population level though.  Cheap, easily available, easy to tolerate, and pretty good efficacy.   Teacher can have a box of spares on her desk.

The problem is that we aren't GOING to have good ventilation and not crowding 😕 . 

 

Just now, wathe said:

N95's on primary students probably aren't realistic, I don't think:  expensive, uncomfortable, and require fitting.  Some families will go through the trouble and expense of finding a good respirator-style mask for their kid (n95, kn94, happy mask, whatever), and some kids will be able to tolerate them - but not very many will go through the trouble and expense, I don't think.

Happy Masks are actually the easiest masks for us to keep on of the one's we've tried 🤷‍♀️. They are high on the nose so they don't slide down. We've also ordered some KF94s, and I can vouch that our friends who use them are some of the only other people we know whose masks stay on right, too... 

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12 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Anyone else in Mere Motherhood on Facebook?  It’s been pretty anti vax for a while other than a few brave souls.  Today there is a thread on which many people share their experiences with the virus and how terrible it was and how they have anxiety and depression afterwards and yet… still no one is saying - maybe we should have vaccinated.  Instead there’s all this “I believe there’s a spiritual element to this virus”.  Um… no.  It’s a neurological biological thing that can be observed scientifically.  I know my theology is not very mainstream but this is something I just can’t get my head around at all.

 

Ugh. I'm not in there and now I'm glad. I can't tolerate this kind of nonsense. 

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Just now, Not_a_Number said:

The problem is that we aren't GOING to have good ventilation and not crowding 😕 . 

 

Happy Masks are actually the easiest masks for us to keep on of the one's we've tried 🤷‍♀️. They are high on the nose so they don't slide down. We've also ordered some KF94s, and I can vouch that our friends who use them are some of the only other people we know whose masks stay on right, too... 

Right.  But you are a motivated, exceptional parent - an outlier is the world of public health.  We're talking population basis, public school population here.  

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2 minutes ago, wathe said:

Right.  But you are a motivated, exceptional parent - an outlier is the world of public health.  We're talking population basis, public school population here.  

I mean, I see that most people won't buy them, I guess. It's just that I haven't found them to be super high on effort after purchase. 

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28 minutes ago, wathe said:

Yes.  Our mask policy is based on both efficacy and resource management.  N95's are significantly more expensive, still not plentiful, and hard to work in.  I think the thinking  is that good enough is good enough, and upgrading to n95 all the time for everything fails a cost/benefit analysis.  There are lots of HCW who aren't happy about it (myself included).

The point I'm making is that surgical masks aren't useless - they're actually pretty good.

 No doubt that properly worn, fit-tested n95 is better.)

I worked a cardiac arrest today in 100 degree heat in a stuffy auto shop.   I cannot imagine wearing an N95 doing that; trying to intubate with the sweat dripping into my surgicaL mask was bad enough.

I think a lot of people underestimate how miserable the properly worn N95s can be.

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16 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Anyone else in Mere Motherhood on Facebook?  It’s been pretty anti vax for a while other than a few brave souls.  Today there is a thread on which many people share their experiences with the virus and how terrible it was and how they have anxiety and depression afterwards and yet… still no one is saying - maybe we should have vaccinated.  Instead there’s all this “I believe there’s a spiritual element to this virus”.  Um… no.  It’s a neurological biological thing that can be observed scientifically.  I know my theology is not very mainstream but this is something I just can’t get my head around at all.

 

I am, and I just can’t with that thread.   My real concern is how many scientifically illiterate people are homeschooling their children.

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3 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

The problem is that we aren't GOING to have good ventilation and not crowding 😕 . 

Neither does my emergency department.......haha (I wish I were joking)

When applying a mask mandate to a whole population (public school children), you really have to balance what's theoretically best with what's actually achievable.  How much more effort would be required for what amount of diminishing return.  And I think that disposable masks make this compromise very well in public school settings..  

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3 minutes ago, Mrs Tiggywinkle said:

I worked a cardiac arrest today in 100 degree heat in a stuffy auto shop.   I cannot imagine wearing an N95 doing that; trying to intubate with the sweat dripping into my surgicaL mask was bad enough.

I think a lot of people underestimate how miserable the properly worn N95s can be.

Truth

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8 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I mean, I see that most people won't buy them, I guess. It's just that I haven't found them to be super high on effort after purchase. 

Easy for you - a high functioning, organized and motivated person.

Hand wash only ...... not a chance on a population basis.   Absolutely not realistic for those living on the margins, with social and family dysfunction, etc.  A non-trivial number of kids are going to be using one of the spares from the box on the teacher's desk, on a daily basis.

Edited by wathe
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Cheap, plentiful, one-size its all, no care required, comfortable to wear, nothing to keep track of (get supplied with a new one every day, if needed) and good enough protection.  From a public health point of view, they are actually pretty perfect.

Edited by wathe
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3 minutes ago, wathe said:

Easy for you - a high functioning, organized and motivated person.

Hand wash only ...... not a chance on a population basis.   Absolutely not realistic for those living on the margins, with social and family dysfunction, etc.  A non-trivial number of kids are going to be using one of the spares from the box on the teacher's desk, on a daily basis.

I mean, I'm really lazy about washing things, and I haven't found the handwashing to be a huge deal. It's literally "dump in bowl, rinse out, leave to dry." Not much harder than throwing in the wash, and I personally was pretty iffy on the whole thing. 

I'm in some ways a high-functioning person, but I don't know that my household management can be described that way!! 

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15 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I mean, I'm really lazy about washing things, and I haven't found the handwashing to be a huge deal. It's literally "dump in bowl, rinse out, leave to dry." Not much harder than throwing in the wash, and I personally was pretty iffy on the whole thing. 

I'm in some ways a high-functioning person, but I don't know that my household management can be described that way!! 

Oh, no doubt your household is functional and motivated - you are definitely not in the category I'm talking about.

I'm talking about those who struggle to keep their kids fed and in clean clothes.  Where basic parenting is a huge challenge.  

There are also lots functional families who aren't motivated.  They just don't care, and having to purchases a relatively expensive, sized mask that requires hand washing is just not going to happen.

ETA "Just don't care" doesn't read the way I meant it - more that they don't judge that the modest relative increase in protection is worth the extra trouble and expense.

Edited by wathe
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11 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I mean, I'm really lazy about washing things, and I haven't found the handwashing to be a huge deal. It's literally "dump in bowl, rinse out, leave to dry." Not much harder than throwing in the wash, and I personally was pretty iffy on the whole thing. 

I'm in some ways a high-functioning person, but I don't know that my household management can be described that way!! 

Actually that’s a spin off thread I meant to start on managing mask washing.  How many masks minimum? How frequent? Soaps and cleansers or just water?  When do you do it?  I have two and they’re both on the line because I wasn’t organised and I really need to find and wash the kids ones.

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14 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I mean, I'm really lazy about washing things, and I haven't found the handwashing to be a huge deal. It's literally "dump in bowl, rinse out, leave to dry." Not much harder than throwing in the wash, and I personally was pretty iffy on the whole thing. 

I'm in some ways a high-functioning person, but I don't know that my household management can be described that way!! 

Things that have to be hand washed -- don't get purchased in this house.

 

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2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Actually that’s a spin off thread I meant to start on managing mask washing.  How many masks minimum? How frequent? Soaps and cleansers or just water?  When do you do it?  I have two and they’re both on the line because I wasn’t organised and I really need to find and wash the kids ones.

I keep a bra mesh bag to put masks in.  My daughter and I have way more than 7 masks. My husband and my son -- end up wearing more than one day in a row.  But I wash every week by throwing the mesh bag into the wash. Then pull it out and hang the masks up to dry, ready to use again the next week.

 

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4 minutes ago, vonfirmath said:

I keep a bra mesh bag to put masks in.  My daughter and I have way more than 7 masks. My husband and my son -- end up wearing more than one day in a row.  But I wash every week by throwing the mesh bag into the wash. Then pull it out and hang the masks up to dry, ready to use again the next week.

 

Hmm ok.

I went for the wool mask option but at $30 each I won’t be buying 7 each for all 5 of us.  However the kids only need them about twice a week and I only have two days where I have to wear them longer than an hour or so.  I reckon two each for the kids and maybe 3 for me for now will do.  Otherwise I need to find some cheaper ones but the wool is really nice to wear.

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5 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Actually that’s a spin off thread I meant to start on managing mask washing.  How many masks minimum? How frequent? Soaps and cleansers or just water?  When do you do it?  I have two and they’re both on the line because I wasn’t organised and I really need to find and wash the kids ones.

We do well fitting thin cloth over disposable pleated earloop mask for the kids (great fit, great filtration, very good comfort, great price)

I wash the cloth after each use  in a bucket in the sink and hang dry.  I've sewn up way many more than needed; each kid has at least 10).  Wash when the bucket is full - about once a week?

The disposable earloop masks get rotated (sit in mask quarantine for a few days) and re-used until the wearer judges them to be "gross", then tossed.

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1 minute ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Hmm ok.

I went for the wool mask option but at $30 each I won’t be buying 7 each for all 5 of us.  However the kids only need them about twice a week and I only have two days where I have to wear them longer than an hour or so.  I reckon two each for the kids and maybe 3 for me for now will do.  Otherwise I need to find some cheaper ones but the wool is really nice to wear.

We are pretty much wearing them all day 6 days a week. Sometimes we don't need them on Saturday.

I haven't spent $30 for any of them. Though I have had problems finding black/patterns my guys will wear in sizes that fit.

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1 minute ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Hmm ok.

I went for the wool mask option but at $30 each I won’t be buying 7 each for all 5 of us.  However the kids only need them about twice a week and I only have two days where I have to wear them longer than an hour or so.  I reckon two each for the kids and maybe 3 for me for now will do.  Otherwise I need to find some cheaper ones but the wool is really nice to wear.

The way I look at it:  The virus doesn't seem to last more than a few days on surfaces.  So, "mask quarantine" for a few days takes care of that.  Washing gets rid of virus too (so wash if you need to re-wear the next day), but also gets rid of all the other yuckies the mask picks up from your own face/nose.

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14 minutes ago, vonfirmath said:

Things that have to be hand washed -- don't get purchased in this house.

I am usually like that. I may have had a bag of hand washables that sat around waiting to be washed so long that they went out of style and no longer fit me... :blush:

But really, the Happy Masks are nothingburgers to wash. Normally, I just wash them when I see they've got a bit of makeup around the nose, but I don't wear them more than to go shopping.  When dh has had to wear them for a full workday,  he would wash after a day,  rotating through a few masks. They easily dry overnight.

Edited by Matryoshka
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1 minute ago, vonfirmath said:

We are pretty much wearing them all day 6 days a week. Sometimes we don't need them on Saturday.

I haven't spent $30 for any of them. Though I have had problems finding black/patterns my guys will wear in sizes that fit.

Yeah for sure.  Although keep in mind $30 here buys a lot less than it does in the US but there are definitely cheaper options around.

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1 hour ago, Matryoshka said:

I am usually like that. I may have had a bag of hand washables that sat around waiting to be washed so long that they went out of style and no longer fit me... :blush:

But really, the Happy Masks are nothingburgers to wash. Normally, I just wash them when I see they've got a bit of makeup around the nose, but I don't wear them more than to go shopping.  When dh has had to wear them for a full workday,  he would wash after a day,  rotating through a few masks. They easily dry overnight.

Yeah, it’s not really hand washing. It’s “dump in big bowl with dish detergent, set 5 minute timer, take out and rinse under cold water, dump on windowsill to dry.”

All my clothes that are supposed to be hand washed are washed in the machine on the “hand wash cycle,” lol. But these are a piece of cake.

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My only complaint about surgical style pleated disposable masks is that they ride up into my eyes every time I try to wear one. my ears/eyes much be more in line than most people's or something? Drives me bonkers and I'm constantly messing with it the times I've worn one (to get a hair cut post vaccine, or to a medical procedure where they required it). 

Disposable boat style fit great, but those are KN94s and more expensive. 

Happy mask fit well on me, not as well as KN94, but well, but my daughter says her glasses fog. And they are sold out constantly. 

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9 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Anyone else in Mere Motherhood on Facebook?  It’s been pretty anti vax for a while other than a few brave souls.  Today there is a thread on which many people share their experiences with the virus and how terrible it was and how they have anxiety and depression afterwards and yet… still no one is saying - maybe we should have vaccinated.  Instead there’s all this “I believe there’s a spiritual element to this virus”.  Um… no.  It’s a neurological biological thing that can be observed scientifically.  I know my theology is not very mainstream but this is something I just can’t get my head around at all.

 

I left almost all of my homeschooling facebook groups early on in the pandemic because of comments along these lines, and I'm a theologically conservative Christian. 

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I’m traveling to visit my elderly parents in a couple of weeks time. I haven’t seen them for 2 years. I’m fully vaxed and being careful but, of course, have exposure at work so I’m hoping I don’t have to cancel because I get Covid. They are both double vaxed too. I will have a test a couple of days before I go, and then a PCR test on day 2. I will have access to enough lateral flow, at home, tests to be able to test at least every other day if necessary. I could possibly get more. I haven’t kept up on the recommended spacing for those tests. Does anyone know what the smart thing to do is regarding testing intervals?

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