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31 minutes ago, KSera said:

Are they masking in the school? I don't have a handle on how many school districts in Florida went ahead with requiring masks anyway.

No, she's in Palm Beach County. Masks are supposedly required but kids can opt out with a parent note. And there are unmasked kids in her kid's classroom. 

Only 3, now 4, counties have a real mask mandate, with the only opt out being a medical note. That was Broward, Alachua, Leon, and now as of this coming Monday, Orange. Wait...maybe Hillsborough too? 

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32 minutes ago, KSera said:

Are they masking in the school? I don't have a handle on how many school districts in Florida went ahead with requiring masks anyway.

I think given Delta, masking is kind of like using a tissue for birth control instead of a condom... I mean, it's POSSIBLE it'll make a difference, but it's going to be wildly inadequate given the viral load likely to be occurring within the schools. 

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Just now, Not_a_Number said:

I think given Delta, masking is kind of like using a tissue for birth control instead of a condom... I mean, it's POSSIBLE it'll make a difference, but it's going to be wildly inadequate given the viral load likely to be occurring within the schools. 

But better than not masking. 

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10 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

Me either. But for working parents, it is the best they have. 

Look, I had to arrange an entirely an online and outdoor year last spring. If I had my kid in school, I would have worked out how to get a pod or something this year. I know that's not an option for everyone, so I appreciate the issue, but I do think we've been downplaying how much of a disaster this is hurtling towards. 

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10 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Look, I had to arrange an entirely an online and outdoor year last spring. If I had my kid in school, I would have worked out how to get a pod or something this year. I know that's not an option for everyone, so I appreciate the issue, but I do think we've been downplaying how much of a disaster this is hurtling towards. 

Well, I don't think I have, lol. I won't let me kids even go outside with kids that are public school. And I think the schools should have done pods, with siblings together, utilized other buildings to space peopel out, etc etc. I'm just staying that for some families, they can't afford anything that isn't free, and given that the schools are doing nothing else, universal masking is better than NOT having a mask mandate, which is the case in many counties here, and was the case here until tonight. 

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Just now, ktgrok said:

Well, I don't think I have, lol. I won't let me kids even go outside with kids that are public school. And I think the schools should have done pods, with siblings together, utilized other buildings to space peopel out, etc etc. I'm just staying that for some families, they can't afford anything that isn't free, and given that the schools are doing nothing else, universal masking is better than NOT having a mask mandate, which is the case in many counties here, and was the case here until tonight. 

Oh, I'm really not arguing with you. They should make everyone mask as the very bare MINIMUM. 

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A friend in Florida just said her school is going online for 3 days.

I'm really not sure what the point of that is.  Officially it's for "deep cleaning."  Which sounds like whoever's in charge hasn't paid attention to anything that's been learned about Covid spread in the last 18 months.

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9 minutes ago, Danae said:

A friend in Florida just said her school is going online for 3 days.

I'm really not sure what the point of that is.  Officially it's for "deep cleaning."  Which sounds like whoever's in charge hasn't paid attention to anything that's been learned about Covid spread in the last 18 months.

YUP. My friend who got the letter also was told they would do extra cleaning. Whatever that means..I mean, either you are wiping down tables and doorknobs and crap or you aren't. What's extra?

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https://www.insider.com/pfizer-ceo-vaccine-resistant-coronavius-variant-likely-2021-8

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla told Fox News on Tuesday that he believed it was "likely" a vaccine-resistant coronavirus variant would eventually emerge. 

"We haven't identified any yet, but we believe that it is likely that one day, one of them will emerge."

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26 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

ACT 8.

@lewelma

Does this fit in with initial predictions about cases growing initially with people already exposed and then going down?  I’m hoping so.  

Yup. We are still fine. We are 7 days post lockdown, so with all the exposure that happened with 20+ infectious people in the community last Tuesday Aug 17 (each with 6+ contacts), a time delay in getting infected, a time delay in showing symptoms, and a time delay in getting results, we are looking at 8-9ish days for the Tuesday Aug 17 infectious group, so that will end tomorrow or Thursday. But then all those people have infected their immediate families (with a very high rate of transmission so an average of 4 per person even in lockdown because so many were in Pacifica households which are large), which will continue the number going up for an additional 4 days. We are expecting numbers to start to decline by Sunday (but could be Tuesday because of the large Pacifica households). We are NOT exponential even though we have mostly 20somethings in the infectious groups and they are way more than 6+ contacts given we have about 20 superspreader events. So linear progression up is a very good sign. We are on target. No need to worry now unless people get demoralized and break the lockdown. This is why they keep saying we expect numbers to go up until the weekend. They need to set expectation to ensure compliance. 

Also, to be clear, wastewater is clear in the rest of the country at 70 sites. The outbreak is limited to ONE city. 

Edited by lewelma
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I will also say it is NOT helpful to have the international press jump to conclusions and not do the research to find out that we are on target. They see numbers going up and tell us to abandon ship after only SEVEN days. Really?!?!?! Go look at the modelling before you tell us what to do.

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There are currently 20,000 people in the close contact list that need to be called everyday. (They spread the net wide, so all 85 people in the lecture hall with 1 infectious person etc). So they have trained people from across the government to join the call centers for the contact tracers. They say they now have 1200 contact tracers for 20,000 people. 

They are also delivering food to people locked down, and joining the bubble of a home child care worker (who has already been vetted) with essential workers who need child care (so just 2 bubbles joined). We also have the wage subsidy for both the companies and the workers. All homeless have been put in hotels. Domestic violence victims are also supported outside their bubbles. They now are pretty good at the social services to make sure that lockdown is possible. 

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2 hours ago, lewelma said:

I will also say it is NOT helpful to have the international press jump to conclusions and not do the research to find out that we are on target. They see numbers going up and tell us to abandon ship after only SEVEN days. Really?!?!?! Go look at the modelling before you tell us what to do.

I think that NZ has shown that they have the expertise to tell the rest of the world what to do instead of the other way around.  (Though being an island does help. . . )  I am shocked that anyone would suggest doing things to open NZ up to the death, illness and hospital overrun that has happened elsewhere from countries not doing what NZ has done. 

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Proud of the hotspot suburb next to mine, which has a downward, still dropping curve.

Mostly people from O/S, everyone masked, and all stores allowed to open (food, chemist) have improvised outdoor service along a largely pedestrianised street. And are clearly staying home as much as possible. 

Mine is ticking along, line looking pretty low and flat after a little bump.

Looking at suburb by suburb data, it's interesting to see that even within an LGA, there's a wide range of increase/decrease in cases. The further west, the higher the case number and no flattening.

The further east or south, closer to the CBD or coast, the lower the numbers and the flatter the curve. This outbreak seeks out poverty. 

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2 hours ago, Melissa Louise said:

Proud of the hotspot suburb next to mine, which has a downward, still dropping curve.

Mostly people from O/S, everyone masked, and all stores allowed to open (food, chemist) have improvised outdoor service along a largely pedestrianised street. And are clearly staying home as much as possible. 

Mine is ticking along, line looking pretty low and flat after a little bump.

Looking at suburb by suburb data, it's interesting to see that even within an LGA, there's a wide range of increase/decrease in cases. The further west, the higher the case number and no flattening.

The further east or south, closer to the CBD or coast, the lower the numbers and the flatter the curve. This outbreak seeks out poverty. 

I think it was on coronacast today or yesterday that the locked down LGAs are actually doing well but adjacent suburbs are almost exponential?  I will find it and make sure I have that right.  Seems like it would be better to relax things a bit in those LGAs and make the restrictions a bit more even/universal?  

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28 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I think it was on coronacast today or yesterday that the locked down LGAs are actually doing well but adjacent suburbs are almost exponential?  I will find it and make sure I have that right.  Seems like it would be better to relax things a bit in those LGAs and make the restrictions a bit more even/universal?  

Half my LGA is still going up, up, up. I'm in the down, down part. 

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17 hours ago, Wheres Toto said:

Do you have a citation for this?   Once we realized that surface transmission wasn't a big part of this, it seems like this wouldn't hold true.  

It was in the WHO explanation in April 2020 (I have a link to the current version, which cites Machinda et al's study of incorrect mask-wearing in Japan). (Also, for someone who's wearing a mask badly in these ways in an area where a properly-fitting mask would be protective, would be getting a combination of surface and air transmission. The incorrect wearing of the mask leads to an increase in viral load, both from increased air-to-surface transmission (e.g from excess touching of parts of the mask which have previously-airborne virus on them) and air transmission (e.g from "chin-masking", which does nothing to block incoming infected airflow since the mask is over the chin instead of the nose and mouth). Getting 1/10 of the amount needed to become ill from 10 sources in a short space of time would logically lead to a similar result to getting the whole amount needed to become ill from 1 source in the same timeframe.

A citation for bad mask-wearing being worse than no mask-wearing* at all is Gupta, Gupta and Gupta "The use of facemasks by the general population to prevent transmission of Covid 19 infection: A systematic review", though it does not appear that the WHO would have used that to justify its original position. Note that some of the research incorporated in that review is of medical-grade masks, which are more complicated to wear correctly than fabric masks.

* - The specific quote for proper mask-wearing is:

Quote

The protective effect of facemasks is determined by the transmission blocking potential of the mask material and the degree of adherence to proper wearing of masks

 

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7 hours ago, lewelma said:

I will also say it is NOT helpful to have the international press jump to conclusions and not do the research to find out that we are on target. They see numbers going up and tell us to abandon ship after only SEVEN days. Really?!?!?! Go look at the modelling before you tell us what to do.

Ridiculous. 

4 hours ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I think that NZ has shown that they have the expertise to tell the rest of the world what to do instead of the other way around.  (Though being an island does help. . . )  I am shocked that anyone would suggest doing things to open NZ up to the death, illness and hospital overrun that has happened elsewhere from countries not doing what NZ has done. 

Exactly

43 minutes ago, ieta_cassiopeia said:

It was in the WHO explanation in April 2020 (I have a link to the current version, which cites Machinda et al's study of incorrect mask-wearing in Japan). (Also, for someone who's wearing a mask badly in these ways in an area where a properly-fitting mask would be protective, would be getting a combination of surface and air transmission. The incorrect wearing of the mask leads to an increase in viral load, both from increased air-to-surface transmission (e.g from excess touching of parts of the mask which have previously-airborne virus on them) and air transmission (e.g from "chin-masking", which does nothing to block incoming infected airflow since the mask is over the chin instead of the nose and mouth). Getting 1/10 of the amount needed to become ill from 10 sources in a short space of time would logically lead to a similar result to getting the whole amount needed to become ill from 1 source in the same timeframe.

A citation for bad mask-wearing being worse than no mask-wearing* at all is Gupta, Gupta and Gupta "The use of facemasks by the general population to prevent transmission of Covid 19 infection: A systematic review", though it does not appear that the WHO would have used that to justify its original position. Note that some of the research incorporated in that review is of medical-grade masks, which are more complicated to wear correctly than fabric masks.

* - The specific quote for proper mask-wearing is:

 

I don't see how wearing the mask and touching it sometimes is worse than wearing the mask and touching the desk, doorknob, etc. It's not actually possible, unless you assume the ONLY thing they are touching is their mask AND assume that they touch their eyes/nose/mouth after touching the mask but would NOT be touching their eyes/nose/mouth without a mask on, which is silly. That said, i count wearing a mask under your chin as not wearing one. 

And of course, in April 2020 we thought the disease was mostly transmitted by surfaces. 

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20 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

Ridiculous. 

Exactly

I don't see how wearing the mask and touching it sometimes is worse than wearing the mask and touching the desk, doorknob, etc. It's not actually possible, unless you assume the ONLY thing they are touching is their mask AND assume that they touch their eyes/nose/mouth after touching the mask but would NOT be touching their eyes/nose/mouth without a mask on, which is silly. That said, i count wearing a mask under your chin as not wearing one. 

And of course, in April 2020 we thought the disease was mostly transmitted by surfaces. 

Masks accumulate solid particles from air, since the parts that don't go through the mask don't fall off the mask reliably between breaths (air has always been seen as part of the problem, hence why masks were recommended for medical people from day 1 of the pandemic confirmation) because we breathe in and out. Thus, there's likely to be a higher concentration of COVID-19 particles on a mask surface that's been in an area infected with COVID-19 than the average surface that hasn't been directly and constantly breathed upon or through. (Of course, if someone sits at the same office desk at work all day, then that desk may very well be as dangerous to touch as a mask worn in the same office, as would breathing the air unmasked in the same office all day. Sadly, bad mask-wearing is only one of several methods of increasing viral load).

The only way to prevent that transmission would be to a) wear the mask properly and not touch the infected parts of the mask or b) wash hands between doing so and touching anything else. In other words, the same way as preventing any other surface infection.

This is even more true since we learned that air transmission is the primary method of infection. 

The Machinda study counted wearing a mask under the chin as wearing one improperly, which makes sense as it needed to differentiate between proper, improper, and non-mask wearing. Whereas you are considering the practical consequences of mask-wearing

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https://amp.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victorian-students-top-naplan-results-despite-months-of-remote-learning-20210824-p58lcs.html?__twitter_impression=true
 

Not that I put a lot of faith in NAPLAN but this is a bit of bright news on a bleak day.  Victorian kids literacy and numeracy scores are up overall even with (or possibly because of) periods of online learning.

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10 minutes ago, ieta_cassiopeia said:

Masks accumulate solid particles from air, since the parts that don't go through the mask don't fall off the mask reliably between breaths (air has always been seen as part of the problem, hence why masks were recommended for medical people from day 1 of the pandemic confirmation) because we breathe in and out. Thus, there's likely to be a higher concentration of COVID-19 particles on a mask surface that's been in an area infected with COVID-19 than the average surface that hasn't been directly and constantly breathed upon or through. (Of course, if someone sits at the same office desk at work all day, then that desk may very well be as dangerous to touch as a mask worn in the same office, as would breathing the air unmasked in the same office all day. Sadly, bad mask-wearing is only one of several methods of increasing viral load).

The only way to prevent that transmission would be to a) wear the mask properly and not touch the infected parts of the mask or b) wash hands between doing so and touching anything else. In other words, the same way as preventing any other surface infection.

This is even more true since we learned that air transmission is the primary method of infection. 

The Machinda study counted wearing a mask under the chin as wearing one improperly, which makes sense as it needed to differentiate between proper, improper, and non-mask wearing. Whereas you are considering the practical consequences of mask-wearing

I had to laugh when I read this. They say masks don’t work to stop the virus, and yet you’re more at risk if you wear one and touch it because there is a collection of virus on the surface of the mask that it has “stopped” I guess? I know you aren’t making this argument at all, but it is just the sort of scrambled up stuff that anti-maskers argue around me. The whole thing is like whack-a-mole - as soon as you knock back one objection or argument they move to another.

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4 minutes ago, TCB said:

I had to laugh when I read this. They say masks don’t work to stop the virus, and yet you’re more at risk if you wear one and touch it because there is a collection of virus on the surface of the mask that it has “stopped” I guess? I know you aren’t making this argument at all, but it is just the sort of scrambled up stuff that anti-maskers argue around me. The whole thing is like whack-a-mole - as soon as you knock back one objection or argument they move to another.

The statement here makes no sense. The point is to wear a mask correctly, and those particles that have got stuck are proof that there's a point to wearing one.

Edited by ieta_cassiopeia
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15 minutes ago, ieta_cassiopeia said:

The statement here makes no sense. The point is to wear a mask correctly, and those particles that have got stuck are proof that there's a point to wearing one.

I agree that statement makes no sense and that was my point. That is an example of the endless craziness I hear from people around me. Just venting really. 

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10 hours ago, mathnerd said:

https://www.insider.com/pfizer-ceo-vaccine-resistant-coronavius-variant-likely-2021-8

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla told Fox News on Tuesday that he believed it was "likely" a vaccine-resistant coronavirus variant would eventually emerge. 

"We haven't identified any yet, but we believe that it is likely that one day, one of them will emerge."

If a vaccine-resistant variant were to emerge, Pfizer would be able to create a new vaccine quickly, within about 3 months or so.

Additionally, a number of second generation vaccines are in development now, some in trials. One is a pan-coronavirus vaccine that could protect against all coronaviruses. That will probably not be approved quickly but it’s in the works. Others include nasal mists and even oral vaccines.

We can’t rely solely on vaccines only, we also need to be able to quickly reduce viral load. Some are saying that 2022 is going to be the year we see many of these treatments. A few are already available in other countries. One OTC nitric oxide-inducing nasal spray is already in pharmacies in Israel. I’ve seen it on ebay. Other nasal sprays look good, too, and if my kids were younger, I’d consider them. Anyhoo, vaccines are still very important, but quite a few different treatments and even preventives should be hitting the market next year or even this year.

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5 hours ago, ieta_cassiopeia said:

It was in the WHO explanation in April 2020 (I have a link to the current version, which cites Machinda et al's study of incorrect mask-wearing in Japan). (Also, for someone who's wearing a mask badly in these ways in an area where a properly-fitting mask would be protective, would be getting a combination of surface and air transmission. The incorrect wearing of the mask leads to an increase in viral load, both from increased air-to-surface transmission (e.g from excess touching of parts of the mask which have previously-airborne virus on them) and air transmission (e.g from "chin-masking", which does nothing to block incoming infected airflow since the mask is over the chin instead of the nose and mouth). Getting 1/10 of the amount needed to become ill from 10 sources in a short space of time would logically lead to a similar result to getting the whole amount needed to become ill from 1 source in the same timeframe.

A citation for bad mask-wearing being worse than no mask-wearing* at all is Gupta, Gupta and Gupta "The use of facemasks by the general population to prevent transmission of Covid 19 infection: A systematic review", though it does not appear that the WHO would have used that to justify its original position. Note that some of the research incorporated in that review is of medical-grade masks, which are more complicated to wear correctly than fabric masks.

* - The specific quote for proper mask-wearing is:

 

 

4 hours ago, ktgrok said:

 

I don't see how wearing the mask and touching it sometimes is worse than wearing the mask and touching the desk, doorknob, etc. It's not actually possible, unless you assume the ONLY thing they are touching is their mask AND assume that they touch their eyes/nose/mouth after touching the mask but would NOT be touching their eyes/nose/mouth without a mask on, which is silly. That said, i count wearing a mask under your chin as not wearing one. 

And of course, in April 2020 we thought the disease was mostly transmitted by surfaces. 

Katie responded for me.  🙂

 

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10 hours ago, ieta_cassiopeia said:


The Machinda study counted wearing a mask under the chin as wearing one improperly, which makes sense as it needed to differentiate between proper, improper, and non-mask wearing. Whereas you are considering the practical consequences of mask-wearing

That is unfortunate.  Wearing a mask under your chin is the same as having it in your pocket and it’s a shame that the study lumps that in with less-than-perfect but actually trying usage.  
 

I can see why, but it’s going to make the numbers useless for deciding if it’s worth it to mask kids, etc.

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5 minutes ago, Danae said:

That is unfortunate.  Wearing a mask under your chin is the same as having it in your pocket and it’s a shame that the study lumps that in with less-than-perfect but actually trying usage.  
 

I can see why, but it’s going to make the numbers useless for deciding if it’s worth it to mask kids, etc.

exactly. Might as well use it as a head band or a sock. 

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11 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://amp.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victorian-students-top-naplan-results-despite-months-of-remote-learning-20210824-p58lcs.html?__twitter_impression=true
 

Not that I put a lot of faith in NAPLAN but this is a bit of bright news on a bleak day.  Victorian kids literacy and numeracy scores are up overall even with (or possibly because of) periods of online learning.

My twins psychologist , who works only with children under 18, said that she noticed that quite a lot of disengaged at school kids flourished with the online learning. 
Something that I am sure would not surprise homeschooling parents at all

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Some slight relaxation of restrictions for fully vaccinated people in NSW

  • For those who live outside the LGAs of concern, outdoor gatherings of up to five people (including children, all adults must be vaccinated) will be allowed in a person’s LGA or within 5km from home.

  • For those who live in the LGAs of concern, households with all adults vaccinated will be able to gather outdoors for recreation (including picnics) within the existing rules (for one hour only, outside curfew hours and within 5km of home). This is in addition to the one hour allowed for exercise

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35 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Some slight relaxation of restrictions for fully vaccinated people in NSW

  • For those who live outside the LGAs of concern, outdoor gatherings of up to five people (including children, all adults must be vaccinated) will be allowed in a person’s LGA or within 5km from home.

  • For those who live in the LGAs of concern, households with all adults vaccinated will be able to gather outdoors for recreation (including picnics) within the existing rules (for one hour only, outside curfew hours and within 5km of home). This is in addition to the one hour allowed for exercise

Thanks for precis-ing this so I can avoid the news. This is bizarre - a thousand cases and rising, but I can have a 60 min picnic. I can't even. I really can't. 

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I'm pretty worried about how hospitals are going to manage. Not from the pov of beds (though that too) but staffing. All NSW public hospitals are chronically under-staffed in normal times. How will they manage with thousands of Covid cases every day? I'm worried about what's going to happen to non-Covid care - transplants, for example, have been halted - but also rationing of Covid care. Why are they doing this??!!

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Oh, the return to school plan comes tomorrow! Super! Maybe we are going to picnic with our students. Gladys says there's a plan to make it safe. I'd love to ******* know what magic they've got to make school safe in the middle of a barely controlled Delta outbreak. 

I'm devastated. The Liberal Party is prepared to ruin this state, and for what? 

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2 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

Oh, the return to school plan comes tomorrow! Super! Maybe we are going to picnic with our students. Gladys says there's a plan to make it safe. I'd love to ******* know what magic they've got to make school safe in the middle of a barely controlled Delta outbreak. 

I'm devastated. The Liberal Party is prepared to ruin this state, and for what? 

probably because they want to go on a holiday overseas and want the border opened so they can come back

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Numbers are starting to plateau. They are cautiously optimistic. 68 today and 61 yesterday.  And of the 61 yesterday, 37 were household contacts and 24 were community transfer. But importantly, they said today that there are currently NO cases that have been caught in the community *after* lockdown began. I was like WOW. 

And of the 500 places of interest and 24000 close contacts, only 13 locations have had cases transmitted. This shows me that they have been extremely cautious and have spread the net wide to find every single last case. 

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What do we think about speculation that Astra Zeneca may give longer lasting immunity than the MRNA vaccines?  Would you be more likely to risk the blood clot issue of it meant not needing six monthly or sooner booster shots? How much longer would immunity have to last to make it worthwhile?

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25 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

What do we think about speculation that Astra Zeneca may give longer lasting immunity than the MRNA vaccines?  Would you be more likely to risk the blood clot issue of it meant not needing six monthly or sooner booster shots? How much longer would immunity have to last to make it worthwhile?

Saw on the news that just about all of Europe has stopped Astra Zeneca use because of blood clots

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2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

What do we think about speculation that Astra Zeneca may give longer lasting immunity than the MRNA vaccines?  Would you be more likely to risk the blood clot issue of it meant not needing six monthly or sooner booster shots? How much longer would immunity have to last to make it worthwhile?

One large study showed that but others show Pfizer and AZ declining in lockstep. Minute 18 onwards of this webinar addresses it.

 

Edited by Laura Corin
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