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gardenmom5

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10 hours ago, ktgrok said:

Just checked - over the last 14 days cases went up 21% while testing went DOWN 25%. 

So yeah...um...don't put much stock in the case numbers. 

Screen Shot 2021-08-23 at 9.32.08 PM.png

Florida's numbers are...bizarre? Not sure what word I should use. Do you think it's true that things are worse currently than they were last winter? Do you think they might have undercounted cases in the winter? Stay safe out there, it sounds dreadful. 😓

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13 minutes ago, Cordelia said:

Florida's numbers are...bizarre? Not sure what word I should use. Do you think it's true that things are worse currently than they were last winter? Do you think they might have undercounted cases in the winter? Stay safe out there, it sounds dreadful. 😓

Things are absolutely worse than they were last winter. It's running rampant through the state. Delta is just WAY more contagious, plus places no longer require people to mask, indoor dining is hopping, gyms and such are fully open without masks, schools started back with parents able to opt out of masking and teachers refusing to enforce masking even for those that didn't have a note to opt out, etc. 

Basically, if you wanted it to spread, you'd do everything Florida has done. 

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6 hours ago, KSera said:

That’s a decrease, isn’t it?

Yes and no.  I mean we’ve had three days over 800 but it’s still well higher than this time last week.  There’s been signs contract tracers aren’t keeping up so whether it represents true stats or not might be a different story.

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9 hours ago, Danae said:

I keep wavering between “Actually the numbers look quite good!” and “school doesn’t start for another two weeks.”  At least we’ll have another two weeks to watch the rest of the country and realize that the “kids don’t spread covid” idea has been shot to bits.

Don't worry; covid skeptics switch very nimbly from "kids don't spread it!" to "kids almost never get serious cases!"

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6 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

I'm pretty sure there are serious indoor vs. outdoor effects. The South keeps having waves in the summer when everyone is in the AC, for example, while the Northeast keeps having a break in the summer and waves in the fall/winter/early spring... 

I'd guess there are also seasonal effects, but they are much less striking than this one. 

Yes.  I’m sure the indoor outdoor is the significant factor. I tend to think that’s true of other viruses we think of as seasonal like flu as well.  
 

 

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On 8/20/2021 at 3:03 AM, KSera said:

I'm surprised seeing NZ only requires masks for 12 and above. Anyone know their thinking on that? Seems awfully risky to me when they are trying for total elimination.

It was the same in England back when masks were required, except in secondary schools (where the 11-year-olds in attendance had to mask to be consistent with other students). The thinking was that a lot of under-12s wouldn't be able to wear masks properly, and that it takes a few years for some cases where other exemptions would apply to get properly diagnosed and documented (e.g. autism was one of the exempted categories, but there's currently a 3-year average wait for diagnosis due to a shortage of diagnosticians).

Yes, many under-12s can be taught to wear them properly, but many others cannot practise it because they forget the rules in their excitement. The research has been fairly consistent in saying that a badly-worn basic mask (e.g. "chin mask" style, excessive touching of the mask while in use, repeatedly removing the mask via the main part instead of the straps) is worse than no mask at all. It was felt to be better to set the age bar at a level where non-wearing of a mask could be treated as deliberate and unreasonable action, rather than something that might be safer for a particular student's development level than attempting to train them. Also, in the early months of the pandemic, there were very few cases (of any severity) among under-12s, thus it was believed that natural protection might help offset the lack of technological protection through not wearing a mask.
 

On 8/21/2021 at 2:53 AM, Melissa Louise said:

I should have said, full England. 

As someone from England, I am sorry your political leaders are following our bad example.

 

9 hours ago, Melissa Louise said:

Is there clear evidence of a seasonal affect? Is it significant? If so, should we be teaching little kids over summer and having a long winter break? 

Or is it the break, not the season, driving any dip?

The break, most likely. England had a dip at Easter surrounded by higher case loads on both sides, because children were on holiday.

On the other hand, teaching when it's most likely to be possible and comfortable to teach outside (whether that means summer, winter or spring/autumn where you live) seems like an option likely to reduce COVID spread.

In UK news: England and Wales had the highest number of COVID deaths this week since March, according to the Office for National Statistics. The peak daily death rate was not so high, but it is consistent, and 5.5% of deaths mention COVID-19 on the death certificate this week.

The medical officer for north-western England's Cumbria region has asked tourists to get a rapid test before going on holiday there as a courtesy to everyone else.

Scotland is arranging a public inquiry of devolved decision-making around COVID, and has announced that 40% of 16-17-year-olds have been half-vaccinated (it's too early since this age group was permitted to have the vaccine for more than a small number to have full protection). It's also extended the age where it's possible to get free dental care on the grounds of youth, so anyone under 26 can get free dentistry. Finally, Scotland has new laws to protect retail workers and others providing services to the public (regardless of their employer) from abuse - namely, that abusing or being violent towards someone providing services to the public will result in a specific offence with the penalty of community sentences or, in exceptional circumstances, prison.

Edited by ieta_cassiopeia
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7 hours ago, calbear said:

well, I became seriously aware of how viruses can pass outdoors when I got that stomach virus from 10 minutes exposure talking to someone standing 6 feet away. It's definitely possible. A virus that I somehow did not give to my family. I know that my immune system underperforms, and I easily catch other people's bugs. 

I still wonder if it was a surface thing. We’ve also caught a stomach bug out and about, but not a single respiratory virus, despite going to lots of playgrounds and playing with other kids.

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7 hours ago, Melissa Louise said:

Cringe. 

 

Screenshot_2021-08-24-17-12-48-62.jpg

I had to laugh at you cringing! That kind of thing is an everyday occurrence in the US, part of the culture, and does seem strange when you first come over here lol.

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2 hours ago, ieta_cassiopeia said:

The research has been fairly consistent in saying that a badly-worn basic mask (e.g. "chin mask" style, excessive touching of the mask while in use, repeatedly removing the mask via the main part instead of the straps) is worse than no mask at all.
 

Do you have a citation for this?   Once we realized that surface transmission wasn't a big part of this, it seems like this wouldn't hold true.  

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24 minutes ago, popmom said:

Why are NZ and Australia trying for “elimination” when this virus is now endemic? The lockdowns are unsustainable at this point. The virus is never going to be eliminated.

Well I do not believe Australia is going for total elimination now (at least in some locations, the Australian boardies can speak more to that than I can). But NZ is a smaller population, on an island, with a small amount of cases. It makes sense for them to try and keep it eliminated in their country until they can vaccinate everyone. Why not, if it is possible? Seems like they are using more wisdom than some places are. 

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2 hours ago, popmom said:

Why are NZ and Australia trying for “elimination” when this virus is now endemic? The lockdowns are unsustainable at this point. The virus is never going to be eliminated.

NZ is staying at elimination for a number of reasons.

We are still basically at elimination status: Right now, we only have 140 cases in the whole of NZ and we have tested, tested, tested. Plus they are all in only 1 city (Wellington's 10 are not community spread, they were from Auckland and self isolating when they got here and are now in quarantine). Plus all waste water but Auckland is clear. We are still at elimination for all but Auckland, so we should try to keep it.

Economically: we have had one of the fastest recoveries in the world. #4. As the health minister said, good health policy is good economic policy.

Health: We have the best health outcomes for covid in the world. Our hospitals are not overrun, are stafff are not overworked. We have had 26 deaths in total. In addition, we have no long-covid because we have had so few cases. That reduces the burden on people and the health system.

Socially: This move is supported by the population. We prefer short, sharp lockdowns to the way life is being lived in the USA, kind of always cautious and always kind of locked down, sort of. We also like the social cohesion that we have with elimination, rather than the culture wars that the USA has. We have no marches, rallies etc against government policies. People here are in agreement.

Vaccine: we can't open up yet even if we wanted to because only 30% of our population is vaccinated. We have had supply problems because we sourced out of India in the beginning and then they decided to keep their vaccine in house and not export it, so our supply fell through and we had to reorder (and go to the back of the line).

Opening up to the world: Right now, they have said that when we finally open up they will treat Covid like Measles (which is also very transmissible) rather than like the seasonal flu. They will stamp Covid out when it gets in.  Once our population is vaccinated (like with Measles), stamping it out will be through contact tracing and self isolation, rather than nation-wide lockdowns, but they still plan to control it rather than let it rip. 

HTH.

 

Edited by lewelma
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2 hours ago, popmom said:

Why are NZ and Australia trying for “elimination” when this virus is now endemic? The lockdowns are unsustainable at this point. The virus is never going to be eliminated.

Also, be careful not to put Australia and NZ in the same bucket. Australia has a federal system and NZ is national, so there are many approaches in Australia and only 1 in NZ. Also, NZ got this outbreak a full 10 weeks after Australia, so has watched and learned from the policies that were tried there. Sorry to say, that NSW has shown us what not to do. So NZ has a much much better chance of beating this because it is way newer and we have more clarity as to what to do and how to do it. In addition, people here are very compliant with the lockdown because they have seen what has happened in NSW. We are ONE week in, we still have a good chance. 

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4 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

NSW is out of step with the whole rest of Australia. The rest of Australia is still going for elimination 

Agreed. Interestingly, America is a federal system also and their states have had different policies over this past year, but the USA seems unable to stop travel between the states as easily as Australia can.  I'm not clear as to why. Perhaps Australia just has fewer roads to block? Or perhaps the states in Australia have more power than the states in the USA to block interstate movement. 

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4 minutes ago, lewelma said:

Agreed. Interestingly, America is a federal system also and their states have had different policies over this past year, but the USA seems unable to stop travel between the states as easily as Australia can.  I'm not clear as to why. Perhaps Australia just has fewer roads to block? Or perhaps the states in Australia have more power than the states in the USA to block interstate movement. 

Or perhaps more of the population in Australia is interested in working together  and trying to eliminate this thing.

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1 minute ago, Melissa in Australia said:

Or perhaps more of the population in Australia is interested in working together  and trying to eliminate this thing.

Yes!  Social cohesion is so important. Culture wars are just bad bad bad during a pandemic!

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1 hour ago, lewelma said:

Agreed. Interestingly, America is a federal system also and their states have had different policies over this past year, but the USA seems unable to stop travel between the states as easily as Australia can.  I'm not clear as to why. Perhaps Australia just has fewer roads to block? Or perhaps the states in Australia have more power than the states in the USA to block interstate movement. 

I was curious and did some googling.  As far as I can tell, states could restrict travel under emergency powers but it's never been done before - at least not wholesale.  And I can be pretty sure that it would go all the way to the Supreme Court.  While the right to travel interstate isn't mentioned as such in the Constitution as a right, there was a case back in 1941 where the Supreme Court did affirm "the right to free movement" as citizens not only of individual states but of the country as a whole.  https://www.law.georgetown.edu/salpal/the-right-to-travel-and-national-quarantines-coronavirus-tests-the-limits/

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1 hour ago, lewelma said:

Agreed. Interestingly, America is a federal system also and their states have had different policies over this past year, but the USA seems unable to stop travel between the states as easily as Australia can.  I'm not clear as to why. Perhaps Australia just has fewer roads to block? Or perhaps the states in Australia have more power than the states in the USA to block interstate movement. 

Bigger distances between major cities must play a role I think.  WA has the greatest advantage from that perspective.

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1 hour ago, Melissa in Australia said:

NSW is out of step with the whole rest of Australia. The rest of Australia is still going for elimination 

Please don't count on it in Vic. Dan's language changed yesterday - yes, you still have a chance of driving down the numbers, but he sounded resigned to vaccination being the federally supported option. 

Long lock downs only work with the co-operation of feds, and federal $$. 

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https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-25/vaccination-target-bordering-on-child-abuse-ama-wa-chief-warns/100403914
 

Statement from the WA head of AMA

"Ultimately if we only have 70 to 80 per cent of adults vaccinated, that is only 56 per cent of the total population and it doesn't include our children," he said.

"This has been attempted in Israel and also in southern America. Texas has got a problem, its paediatric ICUs are full.

"If we go to lose restrictions at 56 per cent of our population vaccinated, with our children not vaccinated, there is going to be a death rate in our children that no parent is going to accept."

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I'm actually quite confused re children. 

My FB teachers group is posting a lot of dire articles. 

My understanding was - more cases in children, cos Delta plus unvaccinated. More cases means more kids in hospital. But hospital/death rates still low in comparison to case numbers - so children still at low risk of complications or death?

Is that wrong? Is Delta more severe in children than previous variants? 

I'm trying to understand risks of K-2 going back to school to the students themselves. 

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Just now, Ausmumof3 said:

That should be funny, but honestly, after nine weeks of it and counting, it's been really hard on most people. It's been way harder than either of the previous two. DS found out his workplace is closing yesterday. Two of my friends have young adults in lockdown mediated mental health crises, people are going hungry not 3km from here. 

It should have been sharper, sooner and shorter. Thats true. But it wasn't, and the anti-NSW stuff is just so demoralising. Most of us are doing our best. 

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3 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

I'm actually quite confused re children. 

My FB teachers group is posting a lot of dire articles. 

My understanding was - more cases in children, cos Delta plus unvaccinated. More cases means more kids in hospital. But hospital/death rates still low in comparison to case numbers - so children still at low risk of complications or death?

Is that wrong? Is Delta more severe in children than previous variants? 

I'm trying to understand risks of K-2 going back to school to the students themselves. 

Norman Swan said yesterday that there’s no evidence that it’s more severe but they catch and spread it more easily.  So if you have a larger number of cases in children the very small percentage that become serious cases will be larger than in the first round when we didn’t have many cases in kids. I think he did a think on health report on it as well but definitely one on the podcast.

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9 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

"If we go to lose restrictions at 56 per cent of our population vaccinated, with our children not vaccinated, there is going to be a death rate in our children that no parent is going to accept."

Optimistic fellow.

4 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Wonder what would happen if the media changed its language from "harshest" to "best." Y'know, like from "king hit" to "coward's punch."

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Just now, Melissa Louise said:

That should be funny, but honestly, after nine weeks of it and counting, it's been really hard on most people. It's been way harder than either of the previous two. DS found out his workplace is closing yesterday. Two of my friends have young adults in lockdown mediated mental health crises, people are going hungry not 3km from here. 

It should have been sharper, sooner and shorter. Thats true. But it wasn't, and the anti-NSW stuff is just so demoralising. Most of us are doing our best. 

Yep.  Please take it is frustration with Gladys (and Scomo) not with the people dealing with the repercussion.  Plus although ours have been harsh they’ve been short enough not to matter much after the first one.  I feel for people in both Melbourne and Vic dealing with it all over again.

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Just now, Ausmumof3 said:

Norman Swan said yesterday that there’s no evidence that it’s more severe but they catch and spread it more easily.  So if you have a larger number of cases in children the very small percentage that become serious cases will be larger than in the first round when we didn’t have many cases in kids. I think he did a think on health report on it as well but definitely one on the podcast.

Yes, that's what I thought. 

So probably the risk is greatest to those children with underlying conditions. I have a student whose diabetes care I do at school, and I can't see it being good for him to be at school if he's in a transmission soup. 

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Just now, Ausmumof3 said:

Yep.  Please take it is frustration with Gladys (and Scomo) not with the people dealing with the repercussion.  Plus although ours have been harsh they’ve been short enough not to matter much after the first one.  I feel for people in both Melbourne and Vic dealing with it all over again.

I do too, because DD is going through it all again ( though doing well, thank goodness).

But I feel like the animus to Gladys really spills out to us. This idea that we are the baddies to Melbourne's good citizens - it's quite offensive. We're all people, all subject to the same financial, psychological and social pressures. 

I see comments in The Guardian like 'just nuke Sydney' and 'get used to never seeing yr interstate family again haha' and it's not actually very funny. 

I wish the ABC would point out there are two boats in this city, and the one doing it tough DO have a harsh lockdown and didn't - in the main - vote Gladys and her lot in. 

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1 minute ago, Melissa Louise said:

Yes, that's what I thought. 

So probably the risk is greatest to those children with underlying conditions. I have a student whose diabetes care I do at school, and I can't see it being good for him to be at school if he's in a transmission soup. 

I think there are certainly cases that have hit hard at kids without underlying conditions.  Also I’ve heard of dual infection scenarios (like COVID plus strep or Covid plus RSV) that turned out badly in previously healthy kids.

I do think it’s inevitable that if we open up before kids are able to be vaccinated some kids will die.  Many kids will deal with long COVID.  As a percentage small, yes.  Still horrible.  

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10 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

I do too, because DD is going through it all again ( though doing well, thank goodness).

But I feel like the animus to Gladys really spills out to us. This idea that we are the baddies to Melbourne's good citizens - it's quite offensive. We're all people, all subject to the same financial, psychological and social pressures. 

I see comments in The Guardian like 'just nuke Sydney' and 'get used to never seeing yr interstate family again haha' and it's not actually very funny. 

I wish the ABC would point out there are two boats in this city, and the one doing it tough DO have a harsh lockdown and didn't - in the main - vote Gladys and her lot in. 

 

We aren’t very good as a nation at separating between offical policies we don’t like and individuals living under them.  Same as the whole Asian hate thing at the start of the pandemic.


I think it’s probably fear and frustration because we don’t have any say in how it’s handled but it will impact us anyway.  Ultimately if NSW let it run it will take the country down.

 

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2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

 

We aren’t very good as a nation at separating between offical policies we don’t like and individuals living under them.  Same as the whole Asian hate thing at the start of the pandemic.


I think it’s probably fear and frustration because we don’t have any say in how it’s handled but it will impact us anyway.  Ultimately if NSW let it run it will take the country down.

 

Yeah, I don't have any say in how it's handled either, despite living here. It's not as if most of us were thumbing our noses at every other state and having parties at Bunnings. Idk. 

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https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voters-back-national-vaccination-targets-to-ease-restrictions-20210824-p58lk5.html

Unfortunately, we're in the minority, ladies. 64% back Federal plan in NSW, 61% in VIC. 

27% of people think it's possible to return to complete suppression. 62% of voters think rules should be relaxed at 70/80% full vaccination. 

Morrison gov up in polls, Labor falling. 

Not only are we headed to national opening up, we are headed to an election next year, which the Coalition will likely win. 

 

 

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A friend just got an email a kid in her son's class tested positive. BUT....don't do anything yet, wait for the department of health to contact trace. So the school can't tell her if her kid was a close contact, she's supposed to wait - possibly several days - to find out. So whoever WAS a close contact will be in class - likely for several days - contagious before they get told to quarantine. Then THEIR close contacts will have to wait days to be told. 

Oh, but don't worry, the letter says, kids are seated 3 feet apart to distance them! Which would you know, be fantastic...if that was the actual distance recommended. 

It's a cluster. 

Oh, and her kid has an immune deficiency. But she's a single mom who needs to work. She can't afford to stay home waiting to find out IF her kid might be a close contact. She needs to save her time off for WHEN he's a close contact. 

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1 minute ago, ktgrok said:

A friend just got an email a kid in her son's class tested positive. BUT....don't do anything yet, wait for the department of health to contact trace. So the school can't tell her if her kid was a close contact, she's supposed to wait - possibly several days - to find out. So whoever WAS a close contact will be in class - likely for several days - contagious before they get told to quarantine. Then THEIR close contacts will have to wait days to be told. 

Oh, but don't worry, the letter says, kids are seated 3 feet apart to distance them! Which would you know, be fantastic...if that was the actual distance recommended. 

It's a cluster. 

Oh, and her kid has an immune deficiency. But she's a single mom who needs to work. She can't afford to stay home waiting to find out IF her kid might be a close contact. She needs to save her time off for WHEN he's a close contact. 

This is just so awful. Your poor friend. 

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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I think there are certainly cases that have hit hard at kids without underlying conditions.  Also I’ve heard of dual infection scenarios (like COVID plus strep or Covid plus RSV) that turned out badly in previously healthy kids.

I do think it’s inevitable that if we open up before kids are able to be vaccinated some kids will die.  Many kids will deal with long COVID.  As a percentage small, yes.  Still horrible.  

There have been several kids who have died in my region (About a quarter of the size of Sydney, for reference) in the last few weeks. I really hope NSW is able to exhibit better self control than the Southern US has....

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25 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

A friend just got an email a kid in her son's class tested positive. 

Well, we did a hard lockdown of the entire nation over 1 case. LOL. I think it is very hard to have to work with the policy of the governments if you don't agree with them.  On both sides, clearly. There is just so much turmoil throughout the world over this.

Edited by lewelma
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11 minutes ago, Dmmetler said:

There have been several kids who have died in my region (About a quarter of the size of Sydney, for reference) in the last few weeks. I really hope NSW is able to exhibit better self control than the Southern US has....

It's not really about self control. 

I can be as self controlled as I like but if the state settings change, they change. And they have changed. 

I just want to know what to expect when back at work next term.

Looks like Covid rolling through, most kids mild, chance of some kids being really sick + breakthrough cases in vaccinated staff. Lots of learning disruptions. 

I'm mentally running through all my work spaces - most are well ventilated, one isn't. Gotta do something about that. 

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20 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

It's not really about self control. 

I can be as self controlled as I like but if the state settings change, they change. And they have changed. 

I just want to know what to expect when back at work next term.

Looks like Covid rolling through, most kids mild, chance of some kids being really sick + breakthrough cases in vaccinated staff. Lots of learning disruptions. 

I'm mentally running through all my work spaces - most are well ventilated, one isn't. Gotta do something about that. 

At least here, the government folks have caved as soon as anyone complains...sigh... 

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1 hour ago, ktgrok said:

A friend just got an email a kid in her son's class tested positive. BUT....don't do anything yet, wait for the department of health to contact trace. So the school can't tell her if her kid was a close contact, she's supposed to wait - possibly several days - to find out. So whoever WAS a close contact will be in class - likely for several days - contagious before they get told to quarantine. Then THEIR close contacts will have to wait days to be told. 

Oh, but don't worry, the letter says, kids are seated 3 feet apart to distance them! Which would you know, be fantastic...if that was the actual distance recommended. 

It's a cluster. 

Oh, and her kid has an immune deficiency. But she's a single mom who needs to work. She can't afford to stay home waiting to find out IF her kid might be a close contact. She needs to save her time off for WHEN he's a close contact. 

Are they masking in the school? I don't have a handle on how many school districts in Florida went ahead with requiring masks anyway.

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@ktgrokSchools in my state have their hands tied. They are not allowed to say (to parents) who has tested positive (if they know) vs who is isolating as a close contact. The health dept can't tell the school the info because our state is no longer under a state of emergency. It is covered under protected health info, supposedly. All this was discussed at a school board meeting last night before a vote about masking requirements. This is true whether it is measles, RSV, hand-foot-and-mouth disease, or covid. 

I actually don't know how much contact tracing is done locally due to manning issues. We were told to do our own contract tracing for awhile. No idea what the instructions are now.

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1 hour ago, ktgrok said:

A friend just got an email a kid in her son's class tested positive. BUT....don't do anything yet, wait for the department of health to contact trace. So the school can't tell her if her kid was a close contact, she's supposed to wait - possibly several days - to find out. So whoever WAS a close contact will be in class - likely for several days - contagious before they get told to quarantine. Then THEIR close contacts will have to wait days to be told. 

Oh, but don't worry, the letter says, kids are seated 3 feet apart to distance them! Which would you know, be fantastic...if that was the actual distance recommended. 

It's a cluster. 

Oh, and her kid has an immune deficiency. But she's a single mom who needs to work. She can't afford to stay home waiting to find out IF her kid might be a close contact. She needs to save her time off for WHEN he's a close contact. 

Oh, goodness. That's terrible 😕 . 

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