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5 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

Yeah..hospitals here are not "overwhelmed" in that people are dying on stretchers in the parking lot, but they are canceling all any elective procedures or outpatient procedures that are not "time sensitive". Hospitals don't cancel stuff if they are not overwhelmed. 

They canceled almost everything for months (in 2020) where I live, and our hospitals were never overwhelmed.  They thought it was going to happen, so they went all out preparing for it, but it never happened.  Our doctors and nurses ended up traveling to other states to help with their overwhelm.

I wouldn't be surprised if Florida hospitals are bracing for what appears likely to happen.  Perhaps rightly so.

I do notice that the current hospitalization and death rates are pretty low these days, in general, compared to those rates in 2020.  So hopefully it won't ever get as bad as it did in 2020 / early 2021.

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16 minutes ago, SKL said:

They canceled almost everything for months (in 2020) where I live, and our hospitals were never overwhelmed.  They thought it was going to happen, so they went all out preparing for it, but it never happened.  Our doctors and nurses ended up traveling to other states to help with their overwhelm.

I wouldn't be surprised if Florida hospitals are bracing for what appears likely to happen.  Perhaps rightly so.

I do notice that the current hospitalization and death rates are pretty low these days, in general, compared to those rates in 2020.  So hopefully it won't ever get as bad as it did in 2020 / early 2021.

It is already as bad here. A major hospital system in my state had to open a sixth Covid unit. They only needed five units last year. They ran out of ventilators and had to have them shipped from other hospitals. We're right back where we were in the fall, see graph. And rising.

It varies a lot by region. In my state, only 16% of inpatient hospital beds remain available. My local hospital is at capacity, including the ICU.

Heck, in my county we have a 48% positivity rate. That is frightening.

covid hospital.jpg

Edited by regentrude
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20 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

Yeah..hospitals here are not "overwhelmed" in that people are dying on stretchers in the parking lot, but they are canceling all any elective procedures or outpatient procedures that are not "time sensitive". Hospitals don't cancel stuff if they are not overwhelmed. 

My father in law is in the glass business in your area. His company is hired to convert for a new covid wing. But it's for possibility of need, not emergency need. He was told it would be about 4 weeks and then they would convert back.

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16 minutes ago, SKL said:

They canceled almost everything for months (in 2020) where I live, and our hospitals were never overwhelmed.  They thought it was going to happen, so they went all out preparing for it, but it never happened.  Our doctors and nurses ended up traveling to other states to help with their overwhelm.

I wouldn't be surprised if Florida hospitals are bracing for what appears likely to happen.  Perhaps rightly so.

I do notice that the current hospitalization and death rates are pretty low these days, in general, compared to those rates in 2020.  So hopefully it won't ever get as bad as it did in 2020 / early 2021.

Florida's hospitalization is not low. Shands has already had to move people from the North Campus to the main one as they ran out of room. People at other hospitals have told me it is getting bad. 

Screen Shot 2021-07-31 at 5.00.09 PM.png

Edited by ktgrok
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Re: we know how to keep from overwhelming hospitals

"The truth of the matter is that you always know the right thing to do. The hard part is doing it."

-Norman Schwarzkopf

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1 minute ago, RootAnn said:

Re: we know how to keep from overwhelming hospitals

"The truth of the matter is that you always know the right thing to do. The hard part is doing it."

-Norman Schwarzkopf

Ugh, yeah.

What is that quote? "The good news is, we are only 6 weeks from being able to end the pandemic. The bad news is, we have always been only 6 weeks from being able to end the pandemic."

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6 hours ago, RootAnn said:

The original goal was to flatten the curve. I don't think the goal now is elimination (in the US or worldwide except in certain countries). What is the goal now in light of the world not being able to be vaccinated for several years (if ever)? Knowing we will not be shutting our borders. Knowing we will keep traveling. Knowing the virus will keep mutating. Knowing vaccinated people transmit (some, less, same amount). What is our way forward on light of all this? Because I've lost the big picture.

I think part of the problem is that a lot of people, including governors/state legislators that have passed laws limited the health department powers, want to live with the virus on their terms, not in terms that allow for mitigated risk. 

Their own terms: no masks in school (example only)

Mitigated risk: encourage vaccination, masks in school, distance (if possible--may not be now if people don't stay in online school), reduce contacts outside of school (examples)

It's not always either/or, and those who force that narrative tend to undermine/dilute the efforts of those who are being truly careful.

I may still not be comfortable with certain activities with the mitigated risk, but I would sure feel better about taking those risks if I had no choice. 

A school district local to us is asking parents if they are open to the idea of having specific elementary classes dedicated to masking (no promises enough people will be on board to provide this). That may not end up mitigating risks as much as universal masking would in classrooms, but I would guess it's FAR more meaningful to the people who want to protect themselves with masks to have an entire room full of masked people than to have every room be a mix of masked and not. 

There is always a continuum of effectiveness, and the options are interlocking and reinforce each other. 

3 hours ago, Frances said:

I remember reading several things about eye protection being useful, including showing even regular glasses can be helpful. Due to this, my husband wore goggles at work for quite awhile and will likely start again. I also know some people who have done this when flying.

Goggles with a gasket are the best, but I don't know if they are better than or equal to face shields. I think both are meant to protect against droplets of all sizes. I am not sure if it's known whether or not aerosols can penetrate the eyes, but I suspect it's a continuum or risk just like droplet to aerosol is a continuum.

If we had had the PPE and containment up front, the original recommendations for people treating covid patients were full body suits and respirator hoods. We compromised out of necessity and got seriously lucky that airborne spread wasn't as severe as we thought it would be (and lucky it wasn't originally spread as easily as delta).

2 hours ago, Innisfree said:

We have some treatments, but no magic bullets. My understanding is that there's nothing yet which would, for example, be the equivalent of an antibiotic to treat a bacterial infection. There's hope for new treatments currently in research, but not presently available.

Hospitals are absolutely getting overwhelmed. We know how to prevent that: the population needs to be vaccinated. 

I think the goal is to vaccinate as many as possible, and then get them booster shots as needed, in hopes of saving lives, preventing the next dangerous variant, and continuing to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. 

On a population level, that probably should mean a hard shutdown for several weeks, plus a heavy, all-hands-on-deck approach to mass vaccination, plus universal masking. If we did it right now, we could get numbers way down before most schools start in September. Kids in middle and high school could have at least one dose, maybe two by then, and be in better shape to attend school in person.

But we won't do that, because people won't tolerate it.

I think local influencers like ministers, doctors, coaches could do a lot of good if they talked about how important vaccination is, and held local events where vaccination is available. That's happening in some places: people here have posted examples.

My own goal at this point is just to keep my family safe. We're all vaccinated. We're returning to masking. I'm ordering N95s. 

I agree, though I don't know if a hard lockdown could be justified at this point after a full year of all the negative effects for those who did isolate, lose business, etc. If we didn't have a vaccine, that might be different. Of course, it could be argued that a vaccine would make a total shutdown more effective as well!

21 minutes ago, SKL said:

They canceled almost everything for months (in 2020) where I live, and our hospitals were never overwhelmed.  They thought it was going to happen, so they went all out preparing for it, but it never happened.  Our doctors and nurses ended up traveling to other states to help with their overwhelm.

You're forgetting that PPE was a big factor in cancelling procedures. It wasn't just beds or Covid patient numbers. We also didn't want people going in for routine procedures to get it or pass it on during the procedure. They were still stratifying risk. 

But PPE was a huge deal. Huge. It's still a bit of a problem, but it's pretty bad when your healthcare worker spouse has to use a mask for a month at a time because his size is unusual and not available if he tosses his current mask. 

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32 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

Ugh, yeah.

What is that quote? "The good news is, we are only 6 weeks from being able to end the pandemic. The bad news is, we have always been only 6 weeks from being able to end the pandemic."

I saw someone in a comment section on another site say that COVID made them realize humankind would never cooperate enough to deal with global warming.

They are right.

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20 hours ago, Matryoshka said:

Not sure which of the covid threads to post this to, but apparently doctors in LA reporting a lot more Covid cases in kids.. (not just more cases, but are sicker)

https://www.cbs.com/shows/cbs_this_morning/video/kqdNQOwSHKYUoOsLL87boJW0iIU9cd0a/school-aged-kids-in-louisiana-have-the-third-largest-number-of-covid-infections/?fbclid=IwAR15z4v3D1jWtr7R2sIiqwILjaPvHKszsziJXrgtglvpOwio8vyUwCqoqg8

I saw the same thing for Arkansas 😕 

 https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/28/us/arkansas-covid-children/index.html

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7 hours ago, RootAnn said:

The original goal was to flatten the curve. I don't think the goal now is elimination (in the US or worldwide except in certain countries). What is the goal now in light of the world not being able to be vaccinated for several years (if ever)? Knowing we will not be shutting our borders. Knowing we will keep traveling. Knowing the virus will keep mutating. Knowing vaccinated people transmit (some, less, same amount). What is our way forward on light of all this? Because I've lost the big picture.

I would assume that the goal has always been to minimize the human cost. How to do that is obviously tricky to balance and keeps requiring adjustment. 

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1 minute ago, Not_a_Number said:

I would assume that the goal has always been to minimize the human cost. How to do that is obviously tricky to balance and keeps requiring adjustment. 

Thank you for trying to address the question of goal. I may have missed someone, but I think this is the only reply to include what the goal is or was.

Let's unpack that line, "minimize human cost." Lives lost? It'll never be zero even at 100% vaccination.

What's the acceptable minimization #?

Heart disease deaths in US? 659,000/yr

Lung cancer deaths in US? 139,000/yr

Flu deaths in US? 22,000-61,000/season

jvp210048t1_1620430592.92326.png?Expires

We all know there was a "human cost" to the lockdowns, virtual schooling, and business closures last year. Like others have pointed out, I don't think the majority of Americans are willing to pay those costs again, short or long term.

I'd like to understand what goal we should all be striving for. 100% immunization? 90%? 80%? 70%? 

Thank you @Innisfree for including your own personal goal of keeping your family safe. 

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31 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

Thank you for trying to address the question of goal. I may have missed someone, but I think this is the only reply to include what the goal is or was.

Let's unpack that line, "minimize human cost." Lives lost? It'll never be zero even at 100% vaccination.

What's the acceptable minimization #?

Heart disease deaths in US? 659,000/yr

Lung cancer deaths in US? 139,000/yr

Flu deaths in US? 22,000-61,000/season

jvp210048t1_1620430592.92326.png?Expires

We all know there was a "human cost" to the lockdowns, virtual schooling, and business closures last year. Like others have pointed out, I don't think the majority of Americans are willing to pay those costs again, short or long term.

I'd like to understand what goal we should all be striving for. 100% immunization? 90%? 80%? 70%? 

Thank you @Innisfree for including your own personal goal of keeping your family safe. 

All of those, except influenza (for which we already have a vaccine and does not ravage through communties to hospital overwhelm since 1918 when there were shut-downs), are not communicable diseases.  They do not spread.  Heart disease, cancer, lung disease, stroke, diabetes - we do try to minimize those, but they are genetic, or lifestyle or general age related -  you can't give them to your family, neighbor, or coworker, so none of the mitigation factors for a commuicable disease are even applicable.

No one thinks the cases will ever get to zero (outside of NZ...).  I'd say we'll be lucky if we knock this down to flu levels yearly.  Where it's a thing, but it doesn't cause things like mass graves and freezer trucks of dead bodies.  So, like the flu, vaccinate - and hope that when it's no longer a novel virus and everyone who can has been vaccinated it ends up being something more managable.

Quote

I'd like to understand what goal we should all be striving for. 100% immunization? 90%? 80%? 70%? 

Well, the same level as measles  - which is less communicable and less deadly than Delta - would be nice.  Which is, I think, over 90%.  And when it gets much under that due to anti-vaxxers, there are outbreaks.  So that seems a good number.  The measles vaccine (again, a disease less communicable, and less deadly than Delta) has been mandatory for decades.

And ... my own kids had a quite bad reaction to the measles vaccine and are only partially vaccinated for it, so yay herd immunity.  And they are all fully vaccinated for Covid - no reaction other than a day of feeling a bit tired and blah.  The measles vaccine is nastier.

Edited by Matryoshka
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19 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

Thank you for trying to address the question of goal. I may have missed someone, but I think this is the only reply to include what the goal is or was.

Let's unpack that line, "minimize human cost." Lives lost? It'll never be zero even at 100% vaccination.

I've never thought it made sense to try to reduce deaths to zero. I'd like COVID risks to feel commensurate with other risks, and they still currently don't. They probably will after my kids get vaccinated, though.  

 

19 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

What's the acceptable minimization #?

Heart disease deaths in US? 659,000/yr

Lung cancer deaths in US? 139,000/yr

Flu deaths in US? 22,000-61,000/season

The thing is that COVID goes on top of those deaths. It's not like COVID makes the other deaths not exist. 

But I'm actually not super worried of dying of COVID or my kids dying of COVID. I'm far more worried about being disabled by it. 

 

19 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

We all know there was a "human cost" to the lockdowns, virtual schooling, and business closures last year. Like others have pointed out, I don't think the majority of Americans are willing to pay those costs again, short or long term.

Yes, those definitely have human cost. I don't think the way we did any of this made sense. It was all really chaotic. 

That being said, it seems unlikely that we'll have major shutdowns moving forward. I think most of the costs going forward will be the result of fear and human behavior and not mandates. But I don't think you can discount fear, either. For instance, I don't see movie theaters and restaurants bouncing right back. 

 

19 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

I'd like to understand what goal we should all be striving for. 100% immunization? 90%? 80%? 70%? 

To reduce human cost? I suppose the higher the better, as long as we try to avoid the people who're likely to have serious bad reactions. 

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45 minutes ago, Matryoshka said:

No one thinks the cases will ever get to zero (outside of NZ...). 

Yes, sadly, we are the last one standing. But I think the government is running scared with what has happened in Sydney.  Today in the main NZ news outlet, there is a piece by the top scientist who has been advising the government from the beginning. He has said that they only way to contain a Delta outbreak is 'level 4 lockdown on steroids.' Keep in mind that our one month long level 4 lockdown was the strictest in the world. So to put it on steriods will be interesting. He has mentioned even closing down some essential services. Gulp. Here is to hoping that we can get the vaccine in all the arms by December as planned.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/125904518/covid19-how-would-aotearoa-cope-with-a-delta-outbreak 

Edited by lewelma
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Just now, lewelma said:

Yes, sadly, we are the last one standing. But I think the government is running scared with what has happened in Sydney.  Today in the main NZ news outlet, there is a piece by the top scientist who has been advising the government from the beginning. He has said that they only way to contain a Delta outbreak is 'level 4 lockdown on steroids.' Keep in mind that our lever 4 lockdown was the strictest in the world. So to put it on steriods will be interesting. He has mentioned even closing down some essential services. Gulp. Here is to hoping that we can get the vaccine in all the arms by December as planned.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/125904518/covid19-how-would-aotearoa-cope-with-a-delta-outbreak 

Your scientists do seem to know what they are doing... this is definitely a year in which I kind of wish we lived in New Zealand 😛 

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1 minute ago, Not_a_Number said:

Your scientists do seem to know what they are doing... this is definitely a year in which I kind of wish we lived in New Zealand 😛 

Well, the government is also listening. It is definitely a partnership between the scientists, the government, and the people. 

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1 hour ago, RootAnn said:

Thank you for trying to address the question of goal. I may have missed someone, but I think this is the only reply to include what the goal is or was.

Let's unpack that line, "minimize human cost." Lives lost? It'll never be zero even at 100% vaccination.

What's the acceptable minimization #?

Heart disease deaths in US? 659,000/yr

Lung cancer deaths in US? 139,000/yr

Flu deaths in US? 22,000-61,000/season

jvp210048t1_1620430592.92326.png?Expires

We all know there was a "human cost" to the lockdowns, virtual schooling, and business closures last year. Like others have pointed out, I don't think the majority of Americans are willing to pay those costs again, short or long term.

I'd like to understand what goal we should all be striving for. 100% immunization? 90%? 80%? 70%? 

Thank you @Innisfree for including your own personal goal of keeping your family safe. 

I obliquely addressed the goal question by saying that in many places the curve has not flattened or stayed flattened.  In my area, which did flatten the curve very well, things were cautiously (and I think responsibly) opened up. But not in the wide open fashion of other places. Now with Delta the curve  is no longer staying flat so we’re tightening up again. We always knew that the “flatten the curve “ goal was going to be a dance of tightening up and loosening up. It was never supposed to be one and done because viruses don’t work that way. 

Edited by Jean in Newcastle
Typed a wrong word
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1 hour ago, Matryoshka said:

Well, the same level as measles  - which is less communicable and less deadly than Delta - would be nice.  Which is, I think, over 90%.  And when it gets much under that due to anti-vaxxers, there are outbreaks.  So that seems a good number.  The measles vaccine (again, a disease less communicable, and less deadly than Delta) has been mandatory for decades.

image.thumb.png.0bc55953f49e4a3b2a7972a1b1219589.png

Um. Measles has a much higher R0. Maybe you are thinking of mumps?

(And I know I've pointed this out before, but the measles vaccine isn't mandated everywhere in the US.)

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Not sure if this is the right place, may put it in the vaccine one too...but Florida hit our highest numbers since the start of the pandemic. 

And this article was so upsetting....https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/30/us/coronavirus-florida-hospitals.html

But these days inside the Covid I.C.U., almost everything is worse.

The week before, Ms. Zacharski’s team had lost a 24-year-old mother whose entire family had contracted the coronavirus. The woman, like every other patient in the Covid I.C.U., had been unvaccinated.

and 

Jackson has also admitted some vaccinated people, but almost all have been transplant patients with compromised immune systems. During last week’s visit by a reporter and photographer from The New York Times, none were in the I.C.U.

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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

9 cases for QLD.  I’m glad they responded quickly by going into lockdown and hope it’s short. 4 for Vic.

NSW had 210 yesterday.  

If anyone doubts that it spreads through schools they should take a good look at QLD

5 different school communities

Edited by Melissa in Australia
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17 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

Ok. I'm done now. This is ridiculous. Five weeks of lockdown and numbers going up?

 

I'm really concerned that from political pressure they'll try to open up schools (in Sydney). Hopefully they'll get enough pushback from staff and parents that it won't happen. We have 200 kids under 9 with Covid out of, what, 3,000 cases? That is a lot. 

Edited by bookbard
Edited to add: I mean, in Sydney
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1 minute ago, bookbard said:

Can't believe the guy with Covid was still saying he probably wouldn't get vaccinated . . . and then said, 'but I hope no one else gets it', like he had made no connection between the two things. 

Yeah....maybe that's the Covid brain fog? Sigh. 

The utter inability to use logic may kill me way before any virus. 

But I'm still stuck on the "masks can't keep out the virus...but they will suffocate you because air can't get through" thing. I mean, I sometimes say dumb stuff, but as I say it out loud I realize how dumb it is, and apologize and laugh. 

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17 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

Ok. I'm done now. This is ridiculous. Five weeks of lockdown and numbers going up?

 

Last year that happened in Melbourne. It ended up to close to 5 months of lockdown.  Getting stricter and stricter or until the numbers dropped. If I remember right when the numbers dropped it was quick

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43 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

image.thumb.png.0bc55953f49e4a3b2a7972a1b1219589.png

Um. Measles has a much higher R0. Maybe you are thinking of mumps?

(And I know I've pointed this out before, but the measles vaccine isn't mandated everywhere in the US.)

Thanks for the chart. I was wanting to look this chart up last night but couldn't think what to search for 

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13 minutes ago, bookbard said:

I'm really concerned that from political pressure they'll try to open up schools (in Sydney). Hopefully they'll get enough pushback from staff and parents that it won't happen. We have 200 kids under 9 with Covid out of, what, 3,000 cases? That is a lot. 

I'm hearing that we should expect not to be back this term, but who knows?

I personally would like to be back at work, but it's a lot of mixing. And workplaces arent safe, just because they're familiar. Some of my kids are vulnerable, so for their sake, too, I'm glad they can learn from home. 

I would go back though if I was allowed. I felt safe in Week 1 when I was there - double vax, masks, ventilation. But I come from a leper LGA, lol. 

Some teachers in the Hunter are very upset b/c their Pfizer appts have been cancelled as part of the plan ( I use that word loosely) to vaccinate HSC students. 

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Re goggles and face shields: They both protect against droplets and splash only.  Neither will fully protect the eyes against aerosols - but as eyes don't breathe/inspire air into the respiratory tract, protection against droplets and splash is adequate.  

Even the very best fitting goggles worn for health care PPE are vented.  The vents are indirect (meaning they face backward so liquid can't splash into them by gravity), but don't have any sort of filter.  Goggles are not airtight.

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14 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

part of the plan ( I use that word loosely) to vaccinate HSC students. 

I am convinced this was announced by Scomo to placate parents of rich private school kids who are annoyed St Josephs got done and their school didn't. If it ever happens, bet you anything they do the private schools that Scomo's friends' kids go to first.

 

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1 hour ago, RootAnn said:

image.thumb.png.0bc55953f49e4a3b2a7972a1b1219589.png

Um. Measles has a much higher R0. Maybe you are thinking of mumps?

While I don't have a strong opinion on what's more infectious, I'll note that R0 does depends on behavior. I don't know how people are calculating that R0 or in what contexts and how that compares to the context for measles. 

 

1 hour ago, RootAnn said:

(And I know I've pointed this out before, but the measles vaccine isn't mandated everywhere in the US.)

We're also not having major measles outbreaks right now, so that's pretty different. Right now, if you don't mandate a COVID vaccine, you WILL probably wind up infecting people. Lots of people. Some of them may die.  

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39 minutes ago, bookbard said:

I am convinced this was announced by Scomo to placate parents of rich private school kids who are annoyed St Josephs got done and their school didn't. If it ever happens, bet you anything they do the private schools that Scomo's friends' kids go to first.

 

Yeah, there's some big private schools in some of the 8 LGA's. Kings School, anyone? 

It's a bit mad they're vaccinating the students while many teachers under 40 are still in the queue. 

 

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2 hours ago, RootAnn said:

image.thumb.png.0bc55953f49e4a3b2a7972a1b1219589.png

Um. Measles has a much higher R0. Maybe you are thinking of mumps?

(And I know I've pointed this out before, but the measles vaccine isn't mandated everywhere in the US.)

Whoops, was conflating with chickenpox on the R0. Which vax is also mandated, just hasn't been for as long.  But that's even less dangerous. I may have brought my kids to a pox party...  I honestly think that one should be given at around age 10, but that's neither here nor there...

Where is measles vax not mandated in the US?? A quick check on Google says it's required in all 50 states. https://www.immunize.org/laws/mmr.asp. One of the territories??

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1 hour ago, bookbard said:

I am convinced this was announced by Scomo to placate parents of rich private school kids who are annoyed St Josephs got done and their school didn't. If it ever happens, bet you anything they do the private schools that Scomo's friends' kids go to first.

 

Yes

I agree

Every time he is in a  press conference  I wonder what absurdity he will spout next. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Not_a_Number said:

We're also not having major measles outbreaks right now, so that's pretty different. Right now, if you don't mandate a COVID vaccine, you WILL probably wind up infecting people. Lots of people. Some of them may die.  

It apparently is mandated in all 50 states, and the Wiki article says: When rates of vaccination [of measles vax] within a population are greater than 92%, outbreaks of measles typically no longer occur; however, they may occur again if rates of vaccination decrease.

That's the reason we don't have major measles outbreaks right now.  We have over 90% rate because of the mandate, and there have been fairly recent outbreaks in non-compliant communities. 

Edited by Matryoshka
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The measles vaccine is not mandated for the whole population of the US, just for purposes of school entry

https://ourworldindata.org/childhood-vaccination-policies

"The term ‘mandatory’ and ‘mandates’ are taken to mean quite different things across countries. Whilst the term is commonly used it is poorly defined. Mandates require vaccination for a certain purpose, most commonly related to school entry for children. ...

Our list indicates whether a country has a mandatory vaccination policy for one or more vaccine and the strictness of the mandate on a scale ranging across three levels: mandatory, mandatory for school entry, or recommended."

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ABC
 

None of the people hospitalised as part of Victoria's latest COVID-19 outbreak had been fully vaccinated, Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton has revealed.

The state recorded another four new locally acquired infections yesterday as the state worked to wrap up the tail end of its Delta outbreak. 

All of the cases have been linked to known outbreaks and all had been in quarantine throughout their infectious period.

The cases were detected from 25,779 test results processed on Saturday. 

There are now 161 active infections in the state, including those linked to hotel quarantine.

That's a drop of 19 since a day earlier, when 180 cases were active.

Professor Sutton said authorities had analysed the vaccination status of the 204 locally acquired cases between July 12 and July 28. 

He said while the small sample size meant it was not an analysis that could be applied universally, the "moment in time snapshot" revealed the protection offered by inoculation.

"Of those 204, at the time of their infection, 25 cases had received at least one dose of a vaccine, and only 10 of that 204 were fully vaccinated," he said.

"… But of those 10 positive cases who were fully vaccinated, none of them were hospitalised. All were either completely without symptoms or had mild symptoms."

Both the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines are proven to have extremely high levels of efficacy against serious illness and death, and can provide a significant reduction in the chances of contracting COVID-19 at all.

Edited by Ausmumof3
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2 hours ago, Melissa Louise said:

Ok. I'm done now. This is ridiculous. Five weeks of lockdown and numbers going up?

 

I remember Norman Swan saying the modelling shows that every day you delay lockdown on the entry side adds a week on the exit side.  That is proving to be unfortunately not an exaggeration.

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17 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

The measles vaccine is not mandated for the whole population of the US, just for purposes of school entry

https://ourworldindata.org/childhood-vaccination-policies

"The term ‘mandatory’ and ‘mandates’ are taken to mean quite different things across countries. Whilst the term is commonly used it is poorly defined. Mandates require vaccination for a certain purpose, most commonly related to school entry for children. ...

Our list indicates whether a country has a mandatory vaccination policy for one or more vaccine and the strictness of the mandate on a scale ranging across three levels: mandatory, mandatory for school entry, or recommended."

That's pretty much how they do the mandates here. If you go to school - daycare, elementary, high school, CC, college, they all mandate it. Even most homeschoolers get caught in that net eventually.  I had to get lots pf paperwork for my not fully vaxxed kids or no college education for them. 

Also had to get paperwork for vax mandates for summer camps. 

So, I guess people who never touch any kind of educational facility? Yep, that's why we're over 90% compliant. Sure, there are ways around it, but the net is big enough to catch 90% of the population,  so, job done.

We don't have to have any kind of separate mandate for adults because they already got the vaxes as kids. Again, job done. 

With a novel virus and vaccine, we can't go that route, but the number to get to is going to be about the same.  We don't have time to do it that way - it would take a generation.

Edited by Matryoshka
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28 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I remember Norman Swan saying the modelling shows that every day you delay lockdown on the entry side adds a week on the exit side.  That is proving to be unfortunately not an exaggeration.

It's worse than last year for us.

Screenshot_2021-08-01-14-30-02-22.jpg

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1 hour ago, Melissa Louise said:

It's worse than last year for us.

Screenshot_2021-08-01-14-30-02-22.jpg

Yep.  It does seem to be slightly lower than Vic for last year still.  Fingers crossed that’s a positive sign.  I have heard modelling slowing September at least before it will be over though.  

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Israel Stats from BNO - still seems pretty encouraging though a bit of an increase.

Israel COVID update: Biggest one-day increase since March, number in hospital rising

- New cases: 2,675
- Average: 2,089 (+180)
- In hospital: 326 (+22)
- In ICU: 37 (+7)
- New deaths: 4

Population vaccinated:
-1st dose: 62.20% (+0.01)
-2nd dose: 57.79% (+0.03)
-3rd dose: 0.02%

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13 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

Your scientists do seem to know what they are doing... this is definitely a year in which I kind of wish we lived in New Zealand 😛 

One of my biggest regrets was that we were in NZ in Jan 2020, and had a year long not a visa. It would have been SO nice to spend 2020 in NZ....(and 2021....)

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12 hours ago, wathe said:

Re goggles and face shields: They both protect against droplets and splash only.  Neither will fully protect the eyes against aerosols - but as eyes don't breathe/inspire air into the respiratory tract, protection against droplets and splash is adequate.  

Even the very best fitting goggles worn for health care PPE are vented.  The vents are indirect (meaning they face backward so liquid can't splash into them by gravity), but don't have any sort of filter.  Goggles are not airtight.

Quoting myself to add, for any interested, that safety glasses (properly called spectacles with side shields here) do not protect adequately against droplets or splash.  They are meant for protection against "impact" - bits of metal or wood that fly off while using power tools or hammering, for instance.  

Which is why our healthcare PPE standard specifies goggles or face shield when droplet contact protection is required.  At my hospital we use face shields - cheap, disposable, decent comfort, regular glasses fit well underneath, not much fogging.  Goggles are tend to fog, often badly, and are less comfortable, leading to much worse user compliance.  They are also expensive (upfront cost plus constant cleaning/reprocessing) and not always compatible with prescription eyeglasses.  Some staff wear their own goggles, but most are giving up the practice in favour of face shields (myself included).

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5 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I haven’t double checked the figures but these visualisations might be helpful.

(2nd tweet in the thread has unvaccinated).

I don't see how they could possibly know that. Is anyone tracking non-hospitalized cases?? Is anyone even taking data on the tests being done? 

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