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7 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://m.jpost.com/israel-news/israel-hits-400-serious-covid-cases-ahead-of-corona-cabinet-meeting-676412
 

On Wednesday morning, the Health Ministry reported 694 people were being treated in Israeli hospitals for the virus, among them 400 in serious condition, with 64% of those patients defined as serious cases being fully vaccinated, compared with 32% who were not. Another 2% were in the process of being vaccinated, and 2% were recovered.
 

What do we make of this stat?  Is it likely that a higher percentage of the vaccinated are more vulnerable or more likely to be exposed due to work?

It is likely that Israel has a higher number of vaccinated.

So even those in the hospital are a lower percentage unvaccinated -- it could be a higher percentage of the unvaccinated are in the hospital than the vaccinated.

 

If 90% of the population is vaccinated, and only 64% of those in the hospital are vaccinated, you still have a higher risk of hospitalization if you are unvaccinated.

 

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On 8/11/2021 at 9:20 AM, Kanin said:

Schools without a mandate are going to be a disaster, right? I wonder what they'll say when it is...

I’m watching our schools closely as they’ve been back in session for over a week now and no masks are required. They keep a dashboard for each school and so far the high school has had the highest number of cases and that was only five (large high school of about 3000 students). A few elementary schools had one or two cases each. It will be interesting to see what happens. 

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5 minutes ago, Joker2 said:

I’m watching our schools closely as they’ve been back in session for over a week now and no masks are required. They keep a dashboard for each school and so far the high school has had the highest number of cases and that was only five (large high school of about 3000 students). A few elementary schools had one or two cases each. It will be interesting to see what happens. 

This is our district dashboard of student/staff cases. I find it interesting the dates go right to left instead of the typical left to right of all other Covid graphs I've seen. Can't help but be cynical and think it was done purposely to confuse people and make them think, at a glance, that cases are going down not up. (school started August 10th)

image.thumb.png.7d5cc3eb6746665d0486565252486cd6.png

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7 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://m.jpost.com/israel-news/israel-hits-400-serious-covid-cases-ahead-of-corona-cabinet-meeting-676412
 

On Wednesday morning, the Health Ministry reported 694 people were being treated in Israeli hospitals for the virus, among them 400 in serious condition, with 64% of those patients defined as serious cases being fully vaccinated, compared with 32% who were not. Another 2% were in the process of being vaccinated, and 2% were recovered.
 

What do we make of this stat?  Is it likely that a higher percentage of the vaccinated are more vulnerable or more likely to be exposed due to work?

I think it is true we need more context to make anything meaningful out of this. 

Some things off the top of my head: Israel vaccinated very early. Many of their most vulnerable are highly vaccinated and the vaccinations were earlier in the year, so it makes sense there is discussion of boosters.

Israel had large Pfizer deals and also Moderna. 

 

Israel has a population of just over 9 million. The closest American state, in population, is New Jersey depending on which source you cite and when numbers were obtained, but pretty close. NJ has 763 hospitalizations. A place like Louisiana with a small percentage vaccinated currently has 2,895 (depending on source but all are approximately similar) and only half the population of Israel. I realize Northern states will probably be hit harder later in the year if it follows last year's patterns so it isn't completely comparable.

 

Ah, here is an article with more context.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.timesofisrael.com/among-older-israelis-serious-covid-rate-six-times-higher-if-unvaccinated/amp/

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22 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

This is our district dashboard of student/staff cases. I find it interesting the dates go right to left instead of the typical left to right of all other Covid graphs I've seen. Can't help but be cynical and think it was done purposely to confuse people and make them think, at a glance, that cases are going down not up. (school started August 10th)

image.thumb.png.7d5cc3eb6746665d0486565252486cd6.png

Yeah, that seems, um, blatantly and intentionally misleading...

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1 minute ago, Matryoshka said:

Yeah, that seems, um, blatantly and intentionally misleading...

What, Florida being misleading with covid stats? NEVER! (insert as much sarcasm as you can muster for that, fyi)

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31 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

This is our district dashboard of student/staff cases. I find it interesting the dates go right to left instead of the typical left to right of all other Covid graphs I've seen. Can't help but be cynical and think it was done purposely to confuse people and make them think, at a glance, that cases are going down not up. (school started August 10th)

image.thumb.png.7d5cc3eb6746665d0486565252486cd6.png

Wow. That’s incredibly deceptive.

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7 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Wow. That’s incredibly deceptive.

Ok, so it's not just me? Was sort of hoping there was a legit reason that is common in graphing that I was not aware of. Sigh. 

Florida is also known for reporting deaths by date they happened not date reported, but graphing up to the present, knowing there is a 4-8 week lag, so the most recent weeks ALWAYS look lower, because that data hasn't populated yet. But unless you read the fine print, you wouldn' tknow and would assume deaths are always going down. 

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I'll be honest here, it feels like sending my son to the south to go to school, is like sending him to a third world country. I don't really worry about his body handling Covid, he is young and healthy and vaccinated but I told him there really won't be great medical care if he gets hit by a car or something. No offence to the doctors and nurses and such of Alabama, I'm sure they do their job but there is only so much any one human can do.

Edited by frogger
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University of Mississippi Medical Center is setting up a 50 bed tent in the parking garage, and the governor has asked Biden to send a military hospital ship. The fact that this is happening AGAIN, despite the availability of a free, safe, easily-accessible preventive, is just INSANE.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/live-updates/covid-delta-variant/?id=79359387&cid=clicksource_4380645_1_heads_hero_live_hero_hed#79410436

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2 hours ago, ktgrok said:

Ok, so it's not just me? Was sort of hoping there was a legit reason that is common in graphing that I was not aware of. Sigh. 

I never worked with lots of data as a tech writer, but we were trained in college to avoid doing things like this if we had to create or present graphs in our work. If a tech writer that's not likely to do a lot of data handling has training to avoid this, then I would say the data people themselves ought to know better.

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@Ausmumof3

https://fortune.com/2021/08/11/pfizer-covid-vaccine-delta-variant-low-effectiveness-stock-falls/

“In short: There is now mounting evidence that mRNA-based vaccines such as Pfizer's and Moderna's lose potency over time and especially against the Delta variant, and that the Pfizer vaccine's efficacy drop is significantly more dramatic. The Mayo Clinic study noted a wide shortfall in the mRNA vaccines' ability to prevent infections among patients using the Mayo Clinic Health System for the month of July, when Delta variant cases made up more than 70% of new local infections in its home state of Minnesota, compared with earlier in the year. Between January and July, Moderna's jab was 86% effective at preventing infection in this population while Pfizer's was 76% effective. But for July alone, those numbers fell to 76% for Moderna and 42% for Pfizer, and the researchers observed similar drops for the Pfizer shot outside of Minnesota in states with high COVID counts such as Florida. (On a brighter note, both the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines still proved highly effective at preventing the need for COVID infection-related hospitalization at 92% and 85% efficacy, respectively.)

Those are concerning figures. But it's important to note several caveats. For one, we still need more data on how the Delta variant is shaping the pandemic and interacting with available COVID treatments given that mutation's surge is still relatively new. Collecting this information has a long lag time in the U.S. as local information trickles up to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) database, and the agency's decision in May to stop tracking breakthrough infections that may cause symptoms but not coronavirus-related hospitalization or death among the fully vaccinated has created an information black hole. Furthermore, tracking how strong a vaccine is against any viral strain over an extended period, and how much immunizing power it may lose and how quickly, is inherently handicapped by having to monitor how the situation plays out on the ground in real time.”

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TOGETHER trial shows no benefit for ivermectin. Excerpt from LA Times article:

"One of the trial’s principal investigators, Edward Mills of McMaster University, presented the results from the Ivermectin arms of the study at an Aug. 6 symposium sponsored by the National Institutes of Health.  Among the 1,500 patients in the study, he said, Ivermectin showed “no effect whatsoever” on the trial’s outcome goals — whether patients required extended observation in the emergency room or hospitalization. 
......
During the symposium, Mills complained that serious researchers looking into claims for COVID treatments have faced unprecedented abuse from advocates. “I’ve had enough abuse and so have the other clinical trialists doing Ivermectin,” he said. “Others working in this area have been threatened, their families have been threatened, they’ve been defamed,” he said. 
......

Mills said that his team’s Ivermectin trial was altered after advocacy groups complained that it was too modest to achieve the results they expected. The trial originally tested the results from a single Ivermectin dose in January this year, but was later changed to involve one daily dose for three days of 400 micrograms of the drug for every kilogram (about 2.2 pounds) of the patients’ weight, up to 90 kilograms. Half the subjects received a placebo tablet. No clinical results were detected at either dosage, Mills said.

Asked whether he expected further criticism from Ivermectin advocates, he said it was all but inevitable. “The advocacy groups have set themselves up to be able to critique any clinical trial. They’ve already determined that any valid, well-designed critical trial was set up to fail.”

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-08-11/ivermectin-no-effect-covid

 

 

 

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https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2777389?guestAccessKey=18c787dc-15a1-4b0e-88c5-7e3654ed8a00&utm_source=silverchair&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=article_alert-jama&utm_term=mostread&utm_content=olf-widget_08122021
 

Ivermectin trial showed a 10 day resolution of mild Covid symptoms for those on Ivermectin versus a 12 day resolution for the placebo group.  The conclusion was that this wasn’t clinically significant which I thought interesting.  If it’s not harmful I’d probably consider taking it for a 1-2 day quicker recovery time plus a slight reduction in the chance of the ongoing headache.  
 

Edited to add it looks like the trial was kind of messy so I don’t know how much faith I’d put in it. 

Edited by Ausmumof3
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from ABC- 

COVID case linked to school bus service in Melbourne's west

A school for autistic children in Laverton, in Melbourne’s west, has been closed to all students after a COVID-19 case was linked to the school’s bus service.

Western Autistic School has sent a letter to parents advising them that all close contacts who travelled on the bus with the positive case have been identified.

Those people and their families have been told to get tested an isolate for 14 days.

The health department has told the school to remain closed to all on-site learning until all those who have been tested return negative results.

 

Feeling for these families now doing 14 days without respite care and services 😞 
 

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Some math on boosters versus base vaccination rate for Delta.  Of course it’s relying on vax being 85pc effective against delta (questionable) and Delta having a reproduction rate of 8 (also questionable).  And it’s aimed at population level not individual decision level.  But overall wider coverage would help more than boosters if those things are true.  And vaccination without masks and distancing is clearly not going to be enough.

I wish I was seeing indications that the government here were looking at that instead of selling the vaccines=back to normal concept we are currently working with.

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3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2777389?guestAccessKey=18c787dc-15a1-4b0e-88c5-7e3654ed8a00&utm_source=silverchair&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=article_alert-jama&utm_term=mostread&utm_content=olf-widget_08122021
 

Ivermectin trial showed a 10 day resolution of mild Covid symptoms for those on Ivermectin versus a 12 day resolution for the placebo group.  The conclusion was that this wasn’t clinically significant which I thought interesting.  If it’s not harmful I’d probably consider taking it for a 1-2 day quicker recovery time plus a slight reduction in the chance of the ongoing headache.  
 

Edited to add it looks like the trial was kind of messy so I don’t know how much faith I’d put in it. 

It's not that they didn't think 2 days was "clinically significant," it's that the result was not statistically significant:

"Time to resolution of symptoms in patients assigned to ivermectin vs placebo was not significantly different (median, 10 days vs 12 days; difference, −2 days [IQR, −4 to 2]; HR for resolution of symptoms, 1.07 [95% CI, 0.87 to 1.32]; P = .53)"

A P value of .53 means the odds that the results occurred purely by chance were better than 50/50. You want a P value at or below .05 (5% probability the result could have happened by chance).

And yeah, the study was a total mess — they accidentally gave ivermectin to the placebo group??? They used a placebo that smelled and tasted totally different from ivermectin? They changed the outcomes partway through? 

Edited by Corraleno
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16 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

It's not that they didn't think 2 days was "clinically significant," it's that the result was not statistically significant:

"Time to resolution of symptoms in patients assigned to ivermectin vs placebo was not significantly different (median, 10 days vs 12 days; difference, −2 days [IQR, −4 to 2]; HR for resolution of symptoms, 1.07 [95% CI, 0.87 to 1.32]; P = .53)"

A P value of .53 means the odds that the results occurred purely by chance were better than 50/50. You want a P value at or below .05 (5% probability the result could have happened by chance).

And yeah, the study was a total mess — they accidentally gave ivermectin to the placebo group??? They used a placebo that smelled and tasted totally different from ivermectin? They changed the outcomes partway through? 

Yeah.  How do you accidentally give the drugs to the placebo group?  Weird.  

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So many helicopters flying over today. Still not sure what that achieves.

We have an increase in ambulances going past too - we're close to a hospital so would normally hear some every day, but I feel like I'm hearing triple the normal amount. I wonder if people are being moved from the bigger hospital to ours? Ours doesn't have a Covid ward. 

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19 hours ago, Corraleno said:

TOGETHER trial shows no benefit for ivermectin. Excerpt from LA Times article:

"One of the trial’s principal investigators, Edward Mills of McMaster University, presented the results from the Ivermectin arms of the study at an Aug. 6 symposium sponsored by the National Institutes of Health.  Among the 1,500 patients in the study, he said, Ivermectin showed “no effect whatsoever” on the trial’s outcome goals — whether patients required extended observation in the emergency room or hospitalization. 
......
During the symposium, Mills complained that serious researchers looking into claims for COVID treatments have faced unprecedented abuse from advocates. “I’ve had enough abuse and so have the other clinical trialists doing Ivermectin,” he said. “Others working in this area have been threatened, their families have been threatened, they’ve been defamed,” he said. 
......

Mills said that his team’s Ivermectin trial was altered after advocacy groups complained that it was too modest to achieve the results they expected. The trial originally tested the results from a single Ivermectin dose in January this year, but was later changed to involve one daily dose for three days of 400 micrograms of the drug for every kilogram (about 2.2 pounds) of the patients’ weight, up to 90 kilograms. Half the subjects received a placebo tablet. No clinical results were detected at either dosage, Mills said.

Asked whether he expected further criticism from Ivermectin advocates, he said it was all but inevitable. “The advocacy groups have set themselves up to be able to critique any clinical trial. They’ve already determined that any valid, well-designed critical trial was set up to fail.”

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-08-11/ivermectin-no-effect-covid

 

 

 

It’s so sad that the researchers doing this research are being treated this way by people who claim that others are the one with the agenda. These researchers are doing exactly what the ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine enthusiasts keeps saying no one is doing: 

The goal of the TOGETHER trial is to determine the effectiveness and safety of the initial treatments of high-risk adults within 48 hours of being diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection, who are not requiring hospitalization, Using repurposed, widely availiable, and economically feasible drugs.”

https://www.togethertrial.com

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56 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

Only 2/10 people in the state fully vaccinated, and that's an uneven spread. Heads need to roll. 

What is the plan for Australia to get more people vaccinated? 

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5 minutes ago, popmom said:

What is the plan for Australia to get more people vaccinated? 

It's being rolled out, but we've had major supply, confidence and access issues. 

September and October are supposed to see greater supply with Moderna hitting our shores. 

Supposedly November will see 80% of eligible population vaccinated, but that's hard to believe. It doesn't include under 18's. 

It's just been very piecemeal so far. Poor planning. I was lucky to get AZ before it was considered risky for under 60's. 

 

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33 minutes ago, popmom said:

What is the plan for Australia to get more people vaccinated? 

We’re getting supplies in September supposedly and just signed up for a million Moderna.

Todays 4 deaths included 1 fully vaccinated.

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38 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

We’re getting supplies in September supposedly and just signed up for a million Moderna.

Todays 4 deaths included 1 fully vaccinated.

I’m sorry to hear. Are they releasing any details about patient characteristics? Is it known age or conditions for the fully vaccinated victim? And which vaccine? 

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New study out of Australia. This is preprint. Interesting because they were able to follow recovered Covid patients without risk of reinfection or vaccination due to Australia's Covid strategy. 

Only confirms my concerns about long term immune system issues.

https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/long-covid-immune-dysfunction-australian-study/

 

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11 minutes ago, KSera said:

I’m sorry to hear. Are they releasing any details about patient characteristics? Is it known age or conditions for the fully vaccinated victim? And which vaccine? 

This is all the details I could find - ABC

Four deaths in NSW announced

They are a:

  • Woman in her 40s who was not vaccinated
  • Man in his 70s who was vaccinated but had pre-exisiting conditions
  • Man in his 80s who was not vaccinated and a female in her 70s
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https://www.9news.com.au/world/coronavirus-world-updates-new-study-links-fires-to-increased-covid-19-risk-usa/9959c2e4-c4f2-4e15-abf2-8971cf3e7d82
 

I haven’t had time to read the study and 9news is not known for its quality science reporting but possible link between wildfire smoke and increase in COVID deaths.  I’m not sure if they did any work to separate the impact of people relocating and that people who are stressed about  fire are less likely to have the mental space for Covid precautions.  If anyone has time to pull it apart please do!

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3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

This is all the details I could find - ABC

Four deaths in NSW announced

They are a:

  • Woman in her 40s who was not vaccinated
  • Man in his 70s who was vaccinated but had pre-exisiting conditions
  • Man in his 80s who was not vaccinated and a female in her 70s

Chanel 9 is reporting that the woman in her 40s was fully vaccinated but had serious underlining health conditions 

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21 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

Chanel 9 is reporting that the woman in her 40s was fully vaccinated but had serious underlining health conditions 

I hate how they say that.

As if everyone can feel relieved - 'oh, just someone with underlying conditions.'

This whole thing dying vaccinated thing is making me super nervous. 

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5 hours ago, Melissa Louise said:

I hate how they say that.

As if everyone can feel relieved - 'oh, just someone with underlying conditions.'

This whole thing dying vaccinated thing is making me super nervous. 

I know....I know too many people with preexisting conditions for that to make me feel safer. 

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7 hours ago, Melissa Louise said:

I hate how they say that.

As if everyone can feel relieved - 'oh, just someone with underlying conditions.'

This whole thing dying vaccinated thing is making me super nervous. 

Was that their point?

 

Many people seem to think if someone dies or gets really sick that vaccines are pointless. That gives people less incentive to get one. I think it is important for people to know that 

A) That just because someone died after being vaccinated that doesn't mean the vaccines don't help. It could still save them. 

B) There are immunocompromised people who need other people to vaccinated to not spread it to them.

I think it is good for the general population to hear that there might be underlying causes for the vaccine to not do it's job well.

 

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9 hours ago, Melissa Louise said:

I hate how they say that.

As if everyone can feel relieved - 'oh, just someone with underlying conditions.'

This whole thing dying vaccinated thing is making me super nervous. 

I know what you mean, but I also agree with Frogger. I’m a knowledge is power type, and I find myself wanting to have as much information as possible about under what conditions the vaccines are holding up well and which conditions are problematic. It helps with decision making. I have an underlying condition, but I’m considered healthy, and now that I’m vaccinated, while still being very cautious (i’ve never not masked indoors in public, starting before they were recommended in spring 2020 all the way up until now, and we rarely go anywhere in doors in public), I have felt much more relaxed and confident my vaccine is going to at least keep me out of the hospital and alive. It would help me to know just how concerned I need to be personally. It wouldn’t make me take fewer precautions for others at all. I am sensitive to that though, because it seems like from the beginning, so many of the Covid minimizers operate from a base that it only affects “those people” with health conditions (or darker skin). A lot of people don’t realize even if they are in a group that would be classified as a pre-existing condition, whether due to their weight or undiagnosed hypertension. Strikes me that it might make  sense to conceptualize being unvaccinated as the highest risk pre-existing condition someone can have. That would be accurate and for some people might have an impact when they hear it that way.

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https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-58202468

 

Quote

 

Regularly opening car windows for 10 seconds can cut the build-up of Covid-19 particles by 97%, a study has found.

Swansea University found the difference in air pressure between the inside and outside of a moving vehicle created a through-draught to suck out the virus.

For driving below 30mph (48kph), opening all four windows is most beneficial.

But on faster roads, opening two on a diagonal can have an even bigger impact.

 

 

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I agree it's important to point out that the two fully vaccinated people who died in Sydney were also already in palliative care when they got sick. There are still a lot of vaccine hesitant people. If they hear that two fully vaccinated people have died anyway, it would really put them off. 

It would be best to make it even clearer, that the vaccine alone can't help everyone, that we need to keep it out of aged care and palliative care and hospitals. But the politicians won't, because then they'd have to admit that the current situation in NSW is their fault - we now have thousands infected and so many deaths because they allowed international crew from aeroplanes to be driven around by unmasked, unvaccinated workers. And this after the last outbreak was started by the exact same thing - international aircrew. 

I also was thinking this morning about whether vaccinating the very ill is worth it. Hopefully they will get some data about that after this outbreak. I posted a few months ago that my dying MIL got very ill after the AZ vaccine. She has since passed (not to do with the vaccine) but it just seemed pointless to vaccinate her at that time, putting her through more misery, and it seems it wouldn't have 'taken' anyway. I don't know. 

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3 minutes ago, bookbard said:

I agree it's important to point out that the two fully vaccinated people who died in Sydney were also already in palliative care when they got sick. There are still a lot of vaccine hesitant people. If they hear that two fully vaccinated people have died anyway, it would really put them off. 

It would be best to make it even clearer, that the vaccine alone can't help everyone, that we need to keep it out of aged care and palliative care and hospitals. But the politicians won't, because then they'd have to admit that the current situation in NSW is their fault - we now have thousands infected and so many deaths because they allowed international crew from aeroplanes to be driven around by unmasked, unvaccinated workers. And this after the last outbreak was started by the exact same thing - international aircrew. 

I also was thinking this morning about whether vaccinating the very ill is worth it. Hopefully they will get some data about that after this outbreak. I posted a few months ago that my dying MIL got very ill after the AZ vaccine. She has since passed (not to do with the vaccine) but it just seemed pointless to vaccinate her at that time, putting her through more misery, and it seems it wouldn't have 'taken' anyway. I don't know. 

Is that true for yesterday’s death as well?

I do think palliative care is a more useful thing to know than preexisting conditions because preexisting conditions is so broad that it applies to almost everyone in the higher risk age categories any way. 

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7 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Is that true for yesterday’s death as well?

 

I read that the 40-something woman had been in palliative care, but not sure where - I usually look at ABC or Guardian, or see things on twitter. 

After googling, I'm second guessing myself! Now I don't know. 

Edited by bookbard
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