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36 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

136 cases for NSW, 53 infectious in the community.

also a flight attendant from QLD who did six flights while infectious 

CHO says NSW situation posing national emergency. 

Really hard to trust the rhetoric - is this actually an emergency? Is this political - redirection of more Pfizer to NSW? Is it both? 

I'm starting double masking, and suggesting family members do too. Pharmacy/supermarkets exposure sites but non-negotiable - no online shopping slots here for a week. 

Starting to consider whether or not to get the (adult) kids to have AZ. 

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14 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

CHO says NSW situation posing national emergency. 

Really hard to trust the rhetoric - is this actually an emergency? Is this political - redirection of more Pfizer to NSW? Is it both? 

I'm starting double masking, and suggesting family members do too. Pharmacy/supermarkets exposure sites but non-negotiable - no online shopping slots here for a week. 

Starting to consider whether or not to get the (adult) kids to have AZ. 

Listen to the Vic premier. He has some words to Sydney national emergency. He is glad to give some advice on how Vic got on top of it last year. 

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Just now, Melissa in Australia said:

Listen to the Vic premier. He has some words to Sydney national emergency. He is glad to give some advice on how Vic got on top of it last year. 

Dan's about the only voice I'm not doubting ATM, tbh. 

Ring of steel around Sydney? Sure. 

 

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1 minute ago, Melissa Louise said:

Dan's about the only voice I'm not doubting ATM, tbh. 

Ring of steel around Sydney? Sure. 

 

It was a huge pain here. Huge 

But it worked. 

Don't forget that Melbourne had a time with over 700 cases a day and dozens of deaths. 

If people don't move at all it stops spreading. 

 

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3 hours ago, Corraleno said:

ETA: from the study:

"Our results showed the time interval from the exposure to first PCR positive in the quarantined population (n=29) was 6.00 (IQR 5.00-8.00) days in the 2020 epidemic (peak at 5.61 days) and was 4.00 (IQR 3.00-5.00) days in the 2021 (n=34) epidemic (peak at 3.71 days) (Figure 1B). We next evaluate the relative viral loads when SAS-CoV-2 viruses were firstly detected in hosts. Compared to the 19A/19 B strains, the relative viral loads in the Delta variant infections (62 cases, Ct value 24.00 (IQR 19.00~29.00) for ORF1ab gene) were 1260 times higher than the 19A/19B strains infections (63 cases, Ct value 34.31 (IQR 31.00~36.00) for ORF1ab gene) on the day when viruses were first detected"

Maybe the cycle threshold obsessors will take Delta more seriously given this. 

1 hour ago, Not_a_Number said:

So that means that it's 1000 times more on the date of the first positive test, not in general, right? 

Highest viral load tends to be right before or around testing positive though, so I’m not sure this ends up being much different than saying 1000 times greater in general, unfortunately. 

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10 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

If people don't move at all it stops spreading. 

I agree. I can’t find an image in english but below is the clusters form from Jurong fish port (purple dot) to the various markets as of July 20 noon. The govt stopped  giving information about how many of the infected are already vaccinated. Fuschia dot is significant outbreak and market temporarily shutdown. Orange dot is 3 or more cases. Yellow dot is less than 3 cases. It spread from one port to islandwide. 

653D04BE-7FB3-402F-A24B-5F2BA3665933.jpeg

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1 minute ago, Melissa Louise said:

There's a natural limit to how much people can stop moving, though.

Food, medical care, essential workers - all require movement of one kind or another. 

 

And yet there are lots if reports from Sydney of people still visiting relatives, groups of people at the beach, people going shopping every single day  etc. 

All this movement doesn't stop spreading

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9 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

And yet there are lots if reports from Sydney of people still visiting relatives, groups of people at the beach, people going shopping every single day  etc. 

All this movement doesn't stop spreading

Yeah, some of those reports are pretty dodgy/Bondi centred. Ppl here in Canterbury-Bankstown are worried. It's pretty quiet.

Shopping is tricky. Lots of elderly, non-drivers here, who can't do a big shop each week. And online delivery is consistently sold out. 

Idk. A lot of blame on individuals, but a lot of government incompetence going on. 

 

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22 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

There's a natural limit to how much people can stop moving, though.

Food, medical care, essential workers - all require movement of one kind or another. 

 

NZ got from 1400 to 0 in 4 weeks of NO movement including 1) all workers including construction to stay home. 2) all schools and day cares closed. 3) all busses/trains/flights stopped. 4) No driving allowed except to the grocery store. 5) Outside for 1 hour of exercise per day and only within walking distance of your house. 6) no hiking, no fishing, no surfing, no boating, no swimming. 7) limit of 100 people in large grocery store at a time, limit of 2 people at chemist at a time. 8.) All other stores closed. 9) all restaurants closed including for takeaways. 10) all churches and Marae closed. 11) no gatherings of any kind between households. 12) All the homeless were found and put into hotels. 

The problem is that our lockdown was at the beginning of Covid when people were not so sick of it and were much more willing to comply. I think there is going to be trouble getting people to do this in Sydney.

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Trans Tasman bubble has closed for 2 months. There will be managed return flights for the next 7 days. All kiwis in NSW must go through our Quarantine hotels. Kiwis in other states will be required to self isolate on arrival back here. I think NZ as an elimination zone may be the last one standing.

Edited by lewelma
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12 minutes ago, lewelma said:

NZ got from 1400 to 0 in 4 weeks of NO movement including 1) all workers including construction to stay home. 2) all schools and day cares closed. 3) all busses/trains/flights stopped. 4) No driving allowed except to the grocery store. 5) Outside for 1 hour of exercise per day and only within walking distance of your house. 6) no hiking, no fishing, no surfing, no boating, no swimming. 7) limit of 100 people in large grocery store at a time, limit of 2 people at chemist at a time. 8.) All other stores closed. 9) all restaurants closed including for takeaways. 10) all churches and Marae closed. 11) no gatherings of any kind between households. 12) All the homeless were found and put into hotels. 

The problem is that our lockdown was at the beginning of Covid when people were not so sick of it and were much more willing to comply. I think there is going to be trouble getting people to do this in Sydney.

Vic current lockdown is pretty similar except public transport is still running and we have a 5 km limit. 

 

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21 minutes ago, lewelma said:

NZ got from 1400 to 0 in 4 weeks of NO movement including 1) all workers including construction to stay home. 2) all schools and day cares closed. 3) all busses/trains/flights stopped. 4) No driving allowed except to the grocery store. 5) Outside for 1 hour of exercise per day and only within walking distance of your house. 6) no hiking, no fishing, no surfing, no boating, no swimming. 7) limit of 100 people in large grocery store at a time, limit of 2 people at chemist at a time. 8.) All other stores closed. 9) all restaurants closed including for takeaways. 10) all churches and Marae closed. 11) no gatherings of any kind between households. 12) All the homeless were found and put into hotels. 

The problem is that our lockdown was at the beginning of Covid when people were not so sick of it and were much more willing to comply. I think there is going to be trouble getting people to do this in Sydney.

Many people are complying. 

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2 hours ago, lewelma said:

Trans Tasman bubble has closed for 2 months. There will be managed return flights for the next 7 days. All kiwis in NSW must go through our Quarantine hotels. Kiwis in other states will be required to self isolate on arrival back here. I think NZ as an elimination zone may be the last one standing.

Totally understandable.  I really hope Sydney will stick with it and go for elimination as much as possible or it will leave the rest of Australia in a bit of a bind.

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AMA says it's 'not likely' NSW will see influx of Pfizer, calls for ATAGI to reconsider AstraZenea vaccine for children

Dr Khorshid said it's "very clear" any new strategy for NSW is going to include vaccinations and that the AMA has told ATAGI it's time to reconsider the advice around the AstraZeneca vaccine for young Australians, given the reality in Sydney.

"Whilst we are sure that's being discussed very robustly at National Cabinet as we speak, it's not likely that large amounts of Pfizer are going to find their way into New South Wales any time soon," he said.

"What that means is we need to take a new approach.

"When ATAGI made its original advice on the under-50s and then the under-60s, it was in the setting of a choice between waiting for Pfizer for younger Australians, in the setting of a very little risk of COVID, or having AZ now.

"Whereas for Sydneysiders, it could be a choice between having AZ now and having no vaccine, and therefore having COVID. And we know that COVID is so much more dangerous than any vaccine.

"So, what we are suggesting to ATAGI is that the settings in Sydney are different. The reality is different. And it may be time for clear advice to all young Australians in Sydney that AZ is a very safe and effective vaccine, and it's the best way to help Sydney get out of this current crisis.

"We have supplies of AZ that we simply do not have of the Pfizer vaccine, and using AZ is really the only way we can see of rapidly changing the scenario in Sydney, in terms of how many people are vaccinated, to give Sydney any hope of exiting these lockdowns any time soon."

 


Ugh… this feels almost deliberate.  Delay locking down then try to get people to take a vaccine that kills a few people because the situation now warrants it.  Maybe not many but too many 😔

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2 hours ago, Melissa Louise said:

@lewelma

How did ppl manage if they didn't have a car but there was no public transport? For food, mainly, but also getting to things like essential medical treatment ? 

There was a minimal bus service running that you could only get on with evidence that you were either an essential worker or that you did not have a grocery store within walking/driving distance (which would be very unlikely in the cities, and if you are in the country there are no buses anyway). Most medical treatment was cancelled that could be, and the primary care doctors went to virtual appointments. So basically, no one needed to use the bus. At any one time there way usually only 1 person on a bus. There were no trains running at all.

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14 minutes ago, lewelma said:

There was a minimal bus service running that you could only get on with evidence that you were either an essential worker or that you did not have a grocery store within walking/driving distance (which would be very unlikely in the cities, and if you are in the country there are no buses anyway). Most medical treatment was cancelled that could be, and the primary care doctors went to virtual appointments. So basically, no one needed to use the bus. At any one time there way usually only 1 person on a bus. There were no trains running at all.

That's hard core. 

I don't think it would work here. Such a big city, and most essential workers, including nurses, commute a long way to their jobs, often on pt. 

We're on Sunday timetable every day, so a big reduction in pt, but I can't see acceptance of a complete stoppage. I think the city would break down. 

 

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7 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

That's hard core. 

I don't think it would work here. Such a big city, and most essential workers, including nurses, commute a long way to their jobs, often on pt. 

We're on Sunday timetable every day, s

o a big reduction in pt, but I can't see acceptance of a complete stoppage. I think the city would break down. 

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=auckland+motorway+during+lockdown+image&rlz=1CAEVJI_enNZ953NZ953&sxsrf=ALeKk021qFwytGnQu8hhxI6gVbfxff6MsQ:1627023364210&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwium6itzvjxAhXiyzgGHXUlB0MQ_AUoAXoECAEQAw&biw=1242&bih=547

Here is an image of the motorway in Auckland during lockdown. Our lockdown was not only hardcore, it was supported by more than 90% of the population. People just did NOT go out. 

This one is my favorite. 🙂

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124444110/how-lockdown-has-changed-the-way-we-work

 

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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

AMA says it's 'not likely' NSW will see influx of Pfizer, calls for ATAGI to reconsider AstraZenea vaccine for children

Dr Khorshid said it's "very clear" any new strategy for NSW is going to include vaccinations and that the AMA has told ATAGI it's time to reconsider the advice around the AstraZeneca vaccine for young Australians, given the reality in Sydney.

"Whilst we are sure that's being discussed very robustly at National Cabinet as we speak, it's not likely that large amounts of Pfizer are going to find their way into New South Wales any time soon," he said.

"What that means is we need to take a new approach.

"When ATAGI made its original advice on the under-50s and then the under-60s, it was in the setting of a choice between waiting for Pfizer for younger Australians, in the setting of a very little risk of COVID, or having AZ now.

"Whereas for Sydneysiders, it could be a choice between having AZ now and having no vaccine, and therefore having COVID. And we know that COVID is so much more dangerous than any vaccine.

"So, what we are suggesting to ATAGI is that the settings in Sydney are different. The reality is different. And it may be time for clear advice to all young Australians in Sydney that AZ is a very safe and effective vaccine, and it's the best way to help Sydney get out of this current crisis.

"We have supplies of AZ that we simply do not have of the Pfizer vaccine, and using AZ is really the only way we can see of rapidly changing the scenario in Sydney, in terms of how many people are vaccinated, to give Sydney any hope of exiting these lockdowns any time soon."

 


Ugh… this feels almost deliberate.  Delay locking down then try to get people to take a vaccine that kills a few people because the situation now warrants it.  Maybe not many but too many 😔

It puts unvaxed 40-60 yr olds in a tough position. I think I'm going to stick with ATAGI advice? Which ATM is to bring second dose AZ dose forward to 4 weeks+

But until they recommend AZ for under 30's, I just don't think I can suggest it to the kids. 

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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

AMA says it's 'not likely' NSW will see influx of Pfizer, calls for ATAGI to reconsider AstraZenea vaccine for children

Dr Khorshid said it's "very clear" any new strategy for NSW is going to include vaccinations and that the AMA has told ATAGI it's time to reconsider the advice around the AstraZeneca vaccine for young Australians, given the reality in Sydney.

"Whilst we are sure that's being discussed very robustly at National Cabinet as we speak, it's not likely that large amounts of Pfizer are going to find their way into New South Wales any time soon," he said.

"What that means is we need to take a new approach.

"When ATAGI made its original advice on the under-50s and then the under-60s, it was in the setting of a choice between waiting for Pfizer for younger Australians, in the setting of a very little risk of COVID, or having AZ now.

"Whereas for Sydneysiders, it could be a choice between having AZ now and having no vaccine, and therefore having COVID. And we know that COVID is so much more dangerous than any vaccine.

"So, what we are suggesting to ATAGI is that the settings in Sydney are different. The reality is different. And it may be time for clear advice to all young Australians in Sydney that AZ is a very safe and effective vaccine, and it's the best way to help Sydney get out of this current crisis.

"We have supplies of AZ that we simply do not have of the Pfizer vaccine, and using AZ is really the only way we can see of rapidly changing the scenario in Sydney, in terms of how many people are vaccinated, to give Sydney any hope of exiting these lockdowns any time soon."

 


Ugh… this feels almost deliberate.  Delay locking down then try to get people to take a vaccine that kills a few people because the situation now warrants it.  Maybe not many but too many 😔

I agree with you. 

 The evidence is quite clear that a young person will have a way higher chance if dying of astra zenica than covid 

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Here is the results of a small study from Israel about the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine on the delta variation of covid. Not good. Not good at all.

Israel National News

According to Health Ministry studies, the effectiveness of the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine against infection from the Delta variant drops to just 39%, Channel 12 News reported.

 

The effectiveness in preventing serious illness has also decreased, but it is still high and stands at 91%.

 

However, the sample from which the data was taken is not large because the number of patients is now severely low. The health system will continue to collect data.

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10 hours ago, KSera said:

Highest viral load tends to be right before or around testing positive though, so I’m not sure this ends up being much different than saying 1000 times greater in general, unfortunately. 

Aah. I didn’t realize that, thank you!!

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I know they are seeing transmission in Australia in pharmacies and retail places, right? Are people in those places masking? Or not?

Also, it seems really weird to me that removalists/movers are so many of the cases of transmission - why is that? Are they spending more time in a person's home, breathing hard lifting things, not masking? Or? Like...that's just a strange job to me to be such a part of the problem. 

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1 minute ago, ktgrok said:

I know they are seeing transmission in Australia in pharmacies and retail places, right? Are people in those places masking? Or not?

Also, it seems really weird to me that removalists/movers are so many of the cases of transmission - why is that? Are they spending more time in a person's home, breathing hard lifting things, not masking? Or? Like...that's just a strange job to me to be such a part of the problem. 

Idk about anywhere else but yes - and I'm not the only one double masking in the supermarket/chemist either. 

I think there were just 2 sets of removalists - bad luck? Going into different homes? Plus crossing state lines = bad.

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07/22/21: Press Briefing by White House COVID-19 Response Team and Public Health Officials - YouTube

7 day daily avg of confirmed covid cases is up 52% compared to last week, hospitalizations up 32%, and deaths up 19%. Last week all figures were up considerably compared to the prior week as well. Walensky says Delta is more aggressive and more transmissible than original/prior variants. It is one of the most infectious respiratory viruses we know of and that she’s seen in her 20 year career.

If you’ve previously had covid, cdc still strongly recommends you get vaccinated. Vaccination will give you longer lasting, more robust, and wide reaching protection to conquer the variants currently circulating the US.

162M indivudals in US fully vaxxed This last week Florida, Texas, and Missouri accounted for 40% of the covid cases in the US. (For additional context, the total population of all 3 states combined accounts for 17% of the us total population) 20% of cases recorded in Florida alone for second week in a row. Vax rates are increasing in the states with lowest vax/highest case rates again for second week in a row.

Fauci says the vax trials for kids under 12 are doing age deescalation in these groups 9-12, 6-9, 2-6, and then 6 months-2.

 

A reporter asked about a mrna dose for those who received j&j vax and Fauci says it is not needed, there is no current data to indicate that it is needed, j&j offers very good protection still.

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41 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

Idk about anywhere else but yes - and I'm not the only one double masking in the supermarket/chemist either. 

I think there were just 2 sets of removalists - bad luck? Going into different homes? Plus crossing state lines = bad.

Ok, so yes, seeing transmission masked, indoors. 

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3 hours ago, TravelingChris said:

My R Gov said that people don't have common sense and that she blames the unvaccinated for our surge.  ANd she urged people to get vaccinated.  This was yesterday.  

I saw that. Bravo for her for speaking the truth. I really hope she does not get blowback for what she said.

 

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7 hours ago, ktgrok said:

I know they are seeing transmission in Australia in pharmacies and retail places, right? Are people in those places masking? Or not?

Also, it seems really weird to me that removalists/movers are so many of the cases of transmission - why is that? Are they spending more time in a person's home, breathing hard lifting things, not masking? Or? Like...that's just a strange job to me to be such a part of the problem. 

Hardly anyone is allowed to cross state or regional borders. Truck drivers are exempt, including removalists 

People in shopping centres and pharmacist are masked, but may not be wearing a mask correctly 

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The removalists that came to Vic removed their mask, but the householder didn't. The householder didn't get covid. But the house was in a high rise  unit. The neighbour didn't wear a mask in the hallway. He caught covid. As did some friends he went to the footy with. Which turned into the superspreader event

The removalists were there for 5 hours. 

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6 hours ago, ktgrok said:

Ok, so yes, seeing transmission masked, indoors. 

Actually, a lot of these are exposure sites, not necessarily transmission sites. 

I think that it's still spreading more in the home and at work, between colleagues - not entirely sure transmission at the chemist as a customer is a big driver of infection. 

But yeah, I didn't double mask at all last year, but there's a reason Ive just started. 

 

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15 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

Hardly anyone is allowed to cross state or regional borders. Truck drivers are exempt, including removalists 

People in shopping centres and pharmacist are masked, but may not be wearing a mask correctly 

True - until last week there were still ppl wearing masks under their noses etc. That seems to have stopped this week. 

 

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10 hours ago, ktgrok said:

I know they are seeing transmission in Australia in pharmacies and retail places, right? Are people in those places masking? Or not?

Also, it seems really weird to me that removalists/movers are so many of the cases of transmission - why is that? Are they spending more time in a person's home, breathing hard lifting things, not masking? Or? Like...that's just a strange job to me to be such a part of the problem. 

Masks are mandatory in indoor public spaces here in my state. Most people seem to be abiding by that.  However the transmission so far here happened before that came back in.

Removalists are probably one of the few categories still allowed to cross state borders I guess, possibly without the level of testing for mainstream truck transport.

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40 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Removalists are probably one of the few categories still allowed to cross state borders I guess, possibly without the level of testing for mainstream truck transport.

That was all happening on the Hume on the way home from Melbourne last night.

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12 for Vic. 1 here from the winery.  They are doing mapping etc of where everyone was sitting so that information will be useful for transmission patterns once the 14 days is up.  At this stage hopeful to be out of lockdown by Wednesday. DH is an essential worker and he says you wouldn’t really know it’s lockdown by the number of cars around etc but people are masking.

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ATAGI has changed their advice for Greater Sydney. 

All adults over 18 should strongly consider getting vaccinated with any available vaccine, including AZ. Benefits now outweigh risks.

I'm grateful for vaccines but I'm so upset that young adults are forced into getting a vaccine that is riskier for them than the vaccines currently being supplied to 50+yr olds who refuse to take their comparatively smaller risk of side effects. 

Anyway. I will give dd1 the new info. I guess it's up to her to weigh up the risk. 

Still not recommended for under 18's. 

Edited by Melissa Louise
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21 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

ATAGI has changed their advice for Greater Sydney. 

All adults over 18 should strongly consider getting vaccinated with any available vaccine, including AZ. Benefits now outweigh risks.

I'm grateful for vaccines but I'm so upset that young adults are forced into getting a vaccine that is riskier for them than the vaccines currently being supplied to 50+yr olds who refuse to take their comparatively smaller risk of side effects. 

Anyway. I will give dd1 the new info. I guess it's up to her to weigh up the risk. 

Still not recommended for under 18's. 

you should read the study linked in the Irish Express thing up thread first if you haven’t.  Haven’t looked at it in detail but it claims the risk of AZ to anyone under 40 is double the risk of Covid.  

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9 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

All adults over 18 should strongly consider getting vaccinated with any available vaccine, including AZ. Benefits now outweigh risks.

 

What about these 50,000 extra Pfizer they're talking about? Surely they'll prioritise your area? It's her decision I guess, but I'd be reluctant to take the risk, if you're just staying at home. I don't have a real sense of where the spread is happening, because even though they're listing exposure sites, you don't know if anyone has actually caught covid there. I know that there's been spread in cafes and workplaces, and random other places, but where are the main places it's spreading in Sydney? 

I was able to get Pfizer last week, booked from June. Most older people that I interact with through work have got AZ from their doctor; many of the younger people seem completely unaware of it all, as in they haven't thought of getting the vaccine and would have no idea how to book for it. And there are definitely a number of older people who do not want the AZ and are holding out for Pfizer. 

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