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22 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I hadn't before but I have now. But I can't say it helped much, lol.

 

Here's the abstract: 

The basic reproduction number (R0), also called the basic reproduction ratio or rate or the basic reproductive rate, is an epidemiologic metric used to describe the contagiousness or transmissibility of infectious agents. R0 is affected by numerous biological, sociobehavioral, and environmental factors that govern pathogen transmission and, therefore, is usually estimated with various types of complex mathematical models, which make R0 easily misrepresented, misinterpreted, and misapplied. R0 is not a biological constant for a pathogen, a rate over time, or a measure of disease severity, and R0 cannot be modified through vaccination campaigns. R0 is rarely measured directly, and modeled R0 values are dependent on model structures and assumptions. Some R0 values reported in the scientific literature are likely obsolete. R0 must be estimated, reported, and applied with great caution because this basic metric is far from simple.

 

That's a lot of words about what R0 is not, lol. But I still don't know what it is. 

I think that was kind of the point though.  It’s not currently very well or consistently defined… and I dare say COVID hasn’t helped much.

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2 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

But then I have no idea what it means. What could "ideal conditions" possibly mean?? 

Like, as a stupid example, what does it even mean for something to be "more transmissible" than something else? Something that is largely airborne will thrive in indoor environments and spread well; something that's mostly spread via surfaces might do much better if everyone is outside, though. 

I guess I'm becoming kind of skeptical about the idea of "ideal conditions." I know that we've done a weird kind of experiment this summer of NEVER going indoors anywhere, and I know that this has actually allowed our kids to continue our streak of getting no colds whatsoever, which was NOT what I expected, and is also not what I'm seeing with people who sent their kids to indoor camps. It looks like people had it right about "bad air" in some cases... so then it feels very hard to talk about transmissibility.  

Well, from what I've read about that study of the weekend activities in Provincetown, many (most) of the "multiple summer events and large public gatherings" were inside (due to weather) were likely in the "very transmissible" category. I read that at least some of those vaccinated who attended believed that "getting vaccinated [gave them] the ability to engage in high-risk activities" without "tak[ing] any precautions." (Loosely quoted from a CNN article.) Perfect conditions for spread of a respiratory virus.

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41 minutes ago, SDMomof3 said:

The breakdown of Israeli covid numbers are really troubling. 

D5F9B13A-F095-4768-B0B8-6F2791591449.png

I don't like those numbers at all, and they're definitely not good news, but I'm keeping in my mind that their adult population is very highly vaccinated (and the most at risk are almost all vaccinated). So, even the fact that only half the cases are in the fully vaccianted shows it's still reducing cases (yes, I know that's weak...it's not doing nearly as much as I want it to be doing). I'm wondering how they count those seriously ill. Is that the total number of people in the country currently classified as seriously ill? Those numbers initially seemed terrible to me, but if it is an overall number, then there are only around 200 people currently seriously ill with covid out of a country of over 9 million. That would indicate they have been pretty successful squashing the virus. I'll have to go look for their current covid curves.

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26 minutes ago, KSera said:

I don't like those numbers at all, and they're definitely not good news, but I'm keeping in my mind that their adult population is very highly vaccinated (and the most at risk are almost all vaccinated). So, even the fact that only half the cases are in the fully vaccianted shows it's still reducing cases (yes, I know that's weak...it's not doing nearly as much as I want it to be doing). I'm wondering how they count those seriously ill. Is that the total number of people in the country currently classified as seriously ill? Those numbers initially seemed terrible to me, but if it is an overall number, then there are only around 200 people currently seriously ill with covid out of a country of over 9 million. That would indicate they have been pretty successful squashing the virus. I'll have to go look for their current covid curves.

 

1 hour ago, SDMomof3 said:

The breakdown of Israeli covid numbers are really troubling. 

D5F9B13A-F095-4768-B0B8-6F2791591449.png

https://mobile.twitter.com/bnodesk?lang=en

“BNO Newsroom

@BNODesk

8h

Israel now provides vaccination status in real-time:

Seriously ill, age <60: raw figure (per 100k)

- Unvaccinated: 28 (0.8)

- Partially: 2 (0.8)

- Vaccinated: 10 (0.2)

 

Seriously ill, 60+: raw (per 100k)

- Unvaccinated: 43 (45.7)

- Partially: 5 (22.8)

- Vaccinated: 123 (9.4)”

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1 hour ago, KSera said:

I don't like those numbers at all, and they're definitely not good news, but I'm keeping in my mind that their adult population is very highly vaccinated (and the most at risk are almost all vaccinated). So, even the fact that only half the cases are in the fully vaccianted shows it's still reducing cases (yes, I know that's weak...it's not doing nearly as much as I want it to be doing). I'm wondering how they count those seriously ill. Is that the total number of people in the country currently classified as seriously ill? Those numbers initially seemed terrible to me, but if it is an overall number, then there are only around 200 people currently seriously ill with covid out of a country of over 9 million. That would indicate they have been pretty successful squashing the virus. I'll have to go look for their current covid curves.

I think but would have to double check I saw a stat for 164 in ICU?  So yeah that would be current I would imagine.

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1 hour ago, Arcadia said:

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/bnodesk?lang=en

“BNO Newsroom

@BNODesk

8h

Israel now provides vaccination status in real-time:

Seriously ill, age <60: raw figure (per 100k)

- Unvaccinated: 28 (0.8)

- Partially: 2 (0.8)

- Vaccinated: 10 (0.2)

 

Seriously ill, 60+: raw (per 100k)

- Unvaccinated: 43 (45.7)

- Partially: 5 (22.8)

- Vaccinated: 123 (9.4)”

So on a per capita basis, the rate of serious illness is 4-5 times higher in unvaccinated vs vaccinated

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6 hours ago, Corraleno said:

So on a per capita basis, the rate of serious illness is 4-5 times higher in unvaccinated vs vaccinated

Yep.  There’s a also a chart floating around from Israel’s figures that visualises it really well but I wasn’t able to find the source to check the stats.  But basically it showed how the death and case rates followed closely prevax and don’t anymore.

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15 hours ago, KSera said:

but if it is an overall number, then there are only around 200 people currently seriously ill with covid out of a country of over 9 million. That would indicate they have been pretty successful squashing the virus.

Yes, the current numbers are: 217 serious cases, 43 of them on ventilators.

 

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My area's just posted data up to 23rd July (in other words, it's now a week behind). Highest case count is among 19-30-year-olds. Second-highest? Under-18s. (Though the 50-60 age group ran them close). It's showing peak was likely hit 2-3 days before the report was released (given they've had a week to update the data, I don't think the fall is due to lack of processed tests). Positivity is down to 1.3% (from 2.6% the week before), and I'm not sure how that's possible given the case count peaked so soon before the end of the period evaluated.

A sharp reduction of testing looks like the main cause of my area's reduction in cases - only 2 test centres in my area were considered to have done a statistically significant number of tests, with most others doing fewer than 100 in the last fortnight. (In total, there's been just under 9,000 tests this fortnight in a population of 100,000, not counting mandatory health care worker testing).

Hospital cases remain steady despite previous weeks having a big rise in cases, which is a good sign, and another good sign is that cases in people above 70 are nearly a thing of the past (there's just over 100 people over 70 with COVID in my area, despite there being many thousands of over-70s living here, whereas for everyone else it about fits the demographic profile of the area).

The government of England and Wales has also decided not to make it compulsory to be vaccinated to attend university lectures or enter university halls of residence. (Universities continue to take significant measures to encourage vaccination, up to and including offering vaccination facilities that students and wider community alike can use, but the medically-exempt and the vaccine-hesitant alike no longer need to worry about educations getting derailed).

72% of the UK population is now considered fully vaccinated.

Edited by ieta_cassiopeia
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I just read this article today about how the Delta variant is so much worse for pregnant women.  I just learned about  a young worship leader who is in the hospital, on a vent, just gave birth to a baby a little over 2 pounds in a neighboring town from me.  So sad.

 

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/variants-effect-on-pregnant-women-to-be-discussed-by-area-health-experts-at-1030-a-m/

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https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-03/covid-delta-danger-sees-experts-prepare-for-hospital-surge/100334558
 

And a bit on how Delta is behaving in Australia- obviously it’s only pretty early data at this point.

The warning comes as early data from the NSW outbreak shows more people are in hospital intensive care wards than during the peak of Victoria's second-wave outbreak, which had substantially more active cases. 

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4 hours ago, popmom said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-58066744

China is testing the entire population of Wuhan due to Delta. They’ve had 7 cases—supposedly. 

The cases they were reporting on CGTN are quite a lot higher than that.  Trains to Beijing are stopped as far as I read yesterday. 
 

Edited to add I misread and thought you meant 7 across the entire country!  Never mind my comment!

Edited by Ausmumof3
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Has anybody seen any of the people, enthusiastic about Ivermectin, such as Dr Campbell or others like him, address the fact that the large, positive, Egyptian study has been withdrawn because of possible fraud? My understanding is that that study was used as part of the Meta analyses that many are using as evidence for its use. I’ve been waiting to see one of them address that, but so far have not seen anything. 
Also, does anyone know when we might get results from the UK study looking at Ivermectin?

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1 minute ago, TCB said:

Has anybody seen any of the people, enthusiastic about Ivermectin, such as Dr Campbell or others like him, address the fact that the large, positive, Egyptian study has been withdrawn because of possible fraud? My understanding is that that study was used as part of the Meta analyses that many are using as evidence for its use. I’ve been waiting to see one of them address that, but so far have not seen anything. 
Also, does anyone know when we might get results from the UK study looking at Ivermectin?

No of course not.  No one is going to admit that they were basing their views on flawed research. 

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4 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

No of course not.  No one is going to admit that they were basing their views on flawed research. 

I am starting to think this must be so. I really thought some of them would address it and am wondering if I just missed it. 
When the delta variant first hit here and we were not seeing vaccinated people in ICU, I had a discussion with someone from an area nearby, further along with Delta, and she said there were breakthrough cases with vaccinated people. I said I didn’t think so, from what I was seeing. We still are seeing minimal  sick vaccinated people, but I now realize that there are definitely breakthrough infections. I wish I could see her again and acknowledge that I was wrong and she was right. I cannot understand these people who just ignore it when something like that comes up, especially those with a public following. Hopefully they are doing so and someone can point me in the right direction.

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53 minutes ago, TCB said:

Has anybody seen any of the people, enthusiastic about Ivermectin, such as Dr Campbell or others like him, address the fact that the large, positive, Egyptian study has been withdrawn because of possible fraud? My understanding is that that study was used as part of the Meta analyses that many are using as evidence for its use. I’ve been waiting to see one of them address that, but so far have not seen anything. 
Also, does anyone know when we might get results from the UK study looking at Ivermectin?

I saw something this week showing what the summary of research looks like if the withdrawn studies are removed, but it wasn’t from one of those who has been enthusiastic about it, so it might not be what you are looking for. I believe the oxford study is still enrolling, so it may be a while. Although, the sad upside of such high infection rates is that it’s much quicker to reach the study end point 😔

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QLD - 19 cases today

Vic Down to 0.  So happy to see their success getting this back under control

SA 1 new local case - sharing some detail because it’s likely a fairly long incubation period - family member tested positive on July 20- all been in iso since then and now tested positive on the “exit” test.  Probably a day 13 test.  Some people have been speculating about shorter incubation etc with delta but looks like we really can’t exclude long incubation periods still.

NSW have 2 deaths - one man in his 20s at home and an 80 year old. 234 cases.  

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Worldometer cases passed 200,000,000 for what that’s worth.  Of course many countries data is well undercounted there.

The cases slope is looking pretty steep again. Deaths slope is softer but increasing - I guess hopefully reflecting some impact from vaccination.

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2 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Oh gosh 😞 . This is SO STUPID given that we have enough vaccines to cover everyone. 

It is inexcusable. 

I want some angry mom version of God to come down, drag people by their ears to a vaccine clinic, and tell them to wash their dang hands. 

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5 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

Oh gosh 😞 . This is SO STUPID given that we have enough vaccines to cover everyone. 

It would be so great if you could pass those around. NZ just gave 10% of its limited supply to Fiji because of their outbreak. 

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1 minute ago, lewelma said:

It would be so great if you could pass those around. NZ just gave 10% of its limited supply to Fiji because of their outbreak. 

I'm not clear on what is making it so hard for us to share doses already here. It sounds to be something about logistics, but we have thrown out 1 million doses already and that is tragic when they are so needed in other places. I don't know if the issues are storage, or transport, or import/export rules, or what.

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3 minutes ago, KSera said:

I'm not clear on what is making it so hard for us to share doses already here. It sounds to be something about logistics, but we have thrown out 1 million doses already and that is tragic when they are so needed in other places. I don't know if the issues are storage, or transport, or import/export rules, or what.

NZ has struggled to get supply. They are getting jabs in arms as fast as the vaccine comes into the country. Last week we got vaccine for 20% of the population (1 million doses) that they will get in arms within a month, but we just gave Fiji 100,000 doses. The problem appears to be that we had sourced it out of India, and then India restricted exports. And it was kind of unethical to demand that they meet their contract when so many people were dying and we were fine. But if Delta gets in here, we are sunk with only 20% vaccinated. 

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The US has already donated and shipped more than 110 million doses to other countries, most of which will be distributed by COVAX, and we have pledged to donate another 500 million. We also provided funding to expand production capacity in India, but if India is holding onto all the vaccine manufactured there until their own population is vaxxed, it may be a while before countries relying on COVAX see increased allocations from there.

As for doses going to waste, I presume those have already been distributed to state and local healthcare providers, and I don't know if there is even a mechanism by which the government could go around collecting unused doses from every Walgreen's, Kroger's, CVS, etc., all with different expiration dates, no idea if they were even stored properly, etc., and then pack them all up and ship them to other countries. I think the best they can do is to try to be more accurate with allocations so less is wasted.

Edited by Corraleno
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17 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

The US has already donated and shipped more than 110 million doses to other countries, most of which will be distributed by COVAX, and we have pledged to donate another 500 million. We also provided funding to expand production capacity in India, but if India is holding onto all the vaccine manufactured there until their own population is vaxxed, it may be a while before countries relying on COVAX see increased allocations from there.

As for doses going to waste, I presume those have already been distributed to state and local healthcare providers, and I don't know if there is even a mechanism by which the government could go around collecting unused doses from every Walgreen's, Kroger's, CVS, etc., all with different expiration dates, no idea if they were even stored properly, etc., and then pack them all up and ship them to other countries. I think the best they can do is to try to be more accurate with allocations so less is wasted.

Good point. NZ gave Fiji part of its new shipment. Not dribs and drabs that hadn't been used. 

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44 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

As for doses going to waste, I presume those have already been distributed to state and local healthcare providers, and I don't know if there is even a mechanism by which the government could go around collecting unused doses from every Walgreen's, Kroger's, CVS, etc., all with different expiration dates, no idea if they were even stored properly, etc., and then pack them all up and ship them to other countries. I think the best they can do is to try to be more accurate with allocations so less is wasted.

Yes, this fits with what I had heard, and wording it that way, it makes more sense. I had just heard that the doses were spread out and it was too hard to collect them again. Thinking of it more concretely, as you say above, I can see the problem. Maybe they could make boosters available on an on call system with doses that are about to expire? The way they were doing with early doses when they were hard to get but there were leftovers (but more organized and efficient 😬)

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1 hour ago, lewelma said:

NZ has struggled to get supply. They are getting jabs in arms as fast as the vaccine comes into the country. Last week we got vaccine for 20% of the population (1 million doses) that they will get in arms within a month, but we just gave Fiji 100,000 doses. The problem appears to be that we had sourced it out of India, and then India restricted exports. And it was kind of unethical to demand that they meet their contract when so many people were dying and we were fine. But if Delta gets in here, we are sunk with only 20% vaccinated. 

Vic and SA have managed to bring it back under wraps with very hard fast lockdowns - given how well NZ does lockdown you could probably do the same.  NSW delayed a lot before acting.  That’s not to say we won’t have another round - with the number of cases in NSW it’s probably going to cause more interstate outbreaks I guess.

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Considering allowing a breaking of the spirit of the law - this lockdown is going to go on for a long time - and let ds' girlfriend (who is having a v hard time at home) travel across the city to meet with Ds outdoors. Ds can't go more than 5km so he can't travel. But g/friend is not restricted. 

Neither of them are going to get offered a vaccine for months and I'm worried re mental health for both. 

They definitely shouldn't do this, from a public health perspective, though intimate partner visits are allowed  (though not in our LGA). 

Sorry, this doesn't really belong here, but ugh, sometimes you've gotta type it out. Ds hadn't seen anyone but me and dd for a month. Online doesn't count. 

I definitely feel more inclined to cheat because I feel like state govt is a complete shambles anyway.

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6 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

Considering allowing a breaking of the spirit of the law - this lockdown is going to go on for a long time - and let ds' girlfriend (who is having a v hard time at home) travel across the city to meet with Ds outdoors. Ds can't go more than 5km so he can't travel. But g/friend is not restricted. 

Neither of them are going to get offered a vaccine for months and I'm worried re mental health for both. 

They definitely shouldn't do this, from a public health perspective, though intimate partner visits are allowed  (though not in our LGA). 

Sorry, this doesn't really belong here, but ugh, sometimes you've gotta type it out. Ds hadn't seen anyone but me and dd for a month. Online doesn't count. 

I definitely feel more inclined to cheat because I feel like state govt is a complete shambles anyway.

Last year when we were in stage 4 lockdown. Dd happened to “bump into “ her then boyfriend when out for her daily excercise. A walk along the beach. As they were not intimate so couldn’t meet under the lockdown rules. Unfair on people holding out to get married, I thought.

 They are now married and happy to lockdown together

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Just now, Melissa in Australia said:

Last year when we were in stage 4 lockdown. Dd happened to “bump into “ her then boyfriend when out for her daily excercise. A walk along the beach. As they were not intimate so couldn’t meet under the lockdown rules. Unfair on people holding out to get married, I thought.

 They are now married and happy to lockdown together

These guys live on different sides of the city, which makes it more complicated, because public transport travel..

Usually she spends every weekend here. 

I'm worried they're gonna get in trouble, less worried about giving each other Covid, and struggling with my 'never break a rule' nature. 

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2 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

As they were not intimate so couldn’t meet under the lockdown rules. Unfair on people holding out to get married, I thought.

Wait a minute. Am I understanding correctly the rule was actually that sexually active unmarried partners could get together, but not unmarried partners who weren't sexually active? Not only is that unfair, it doesn't even make any sense from a public health perspective, since the sexually active ones are more likely to spread it to eachother. Maybe I'm misunderstanding.

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Just now, Melissa Louise said:

These guys live on different sides of the city, which makes it more complicated, because public transport travel..

Usually she spends every weekend here. 

I'm worried they're gonna get in trouble, less worried about giving each other Covid, and struggling with my 'never break a rule' nature. 

The never break a rule is extremely hard. I struggle with that as well. Especially as there seems to be so few never break a rule people.

the mental health of young people is a really really hard thing in continuous lockdowns

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2 minutes ago, KSera said:

Wait a minute. Am I understanding correctly the rule was actually that sexually active unmarried partners could get together, but not unmarried partners who weren't sexually active? Not only is that unfair, it doesn't even make any sense from a public health perspective, since the sexually active ones are more likely to spread it to eachother. Maybe I'm misunderstanding.

You understand correctly. They had to be intimate to be able to form a bubble.

and as weddings were not allowed unless end of life situations it was tough.

hence me encouraging a slight bending of the rules of bumping into each other while out walking along the beach.

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1 minute ago, Melissa in Australia said:

The never break a rule is extremely hard. I struggle with that as well. Especially as there seems to be so few never break a rule people.

the mental health of young people is a really really hard thing in continuous lockdowns

Yep. Last year, Ds was doing so poorly but he absolutely transformed over the last 8 months or so, especially once he started working. Now there's no work in sight, he's missing the daily social interaction and sense of purpose, and both kids are missing each other. I'm worried that this is going to drag on past the end of the month, and that he'll slide back into the pit. So far, he's doing ok, but I'm still worried...

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3 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

Australia has sent Fiji over 600,000 doses as well. I am guessing Astra Zeneca as Australia is manufacturing it now

We only have Pfizer here so that is what NZ sent. Fiji is NOT doing well.  

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