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31 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

If his hypothesis is correct, then Delta may cause significantly more cases of long covid than we've seen so far with earlier variants, since the data from this study showed viral load was more than 1000 times higher with Delta vs the original strain.

But how does it follow that so very many who were not very sick originally end up with long covid, like myself?  I thought the viral load being larger made for more serious sickness.  But I would almost say the majority of long haulers on the support groups were not hospitalized and say their initial illness was mild or moderate.   I have major brain fog so if this doesn't make sense, just blame that 😂

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https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/coronacast/what-can-we-learn-from-the-uks-freedom-day/13464184
 

Coronacast today is worth a listen or a scan through the transcript.  Really really need 80-90 pc vaccination rates to open up safely. The potential for new variants to surface in the UK is high.

The situation here is worrying me.  Even with pretty strict lockdowns VIC and NSW have only managed to stabilise the numbers they aren’t going down.  VIC has 26 cases today.  I suspect speed of transmission is the issue- 24 hour turn around with test results is no longer enough. If the virus is transmitted within 24 hours contact tracing your way out is an issue.

As mentioned by Melissa, we had six more cases last night in my state.  One of those was exposed around lunch time and worked at a school next day, so it will be interesting to see whether there’s any transmission there in terms of time-frames.  Obviously really hoping not, but will give some indication of where things are going.

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4 minutes ago, busymama7 said:

But how does it follow that so very many who were not very sick originally end up with long covid, like myself?  I thought the viral load being larger made for more serious sickness.  But I would almost say the majority of long haulers on the support groups were not hospitalized and say their initial illness was mild or moderate.   I have major brain fog so if this doesn't make sense, just blame that 😂

This is what I’ve heard as well, theres even mostly asymptomatic people developing issues.  

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2 more cases today from the winery.  Everyone who was at the restaurant or the winery is being moved to medi-hotels - that about 300 people.  The reasoning is that they are higher risk than international arrivals at this point.

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from abc - again sorry for the big font but this is yet another example of likely outdoor transmission.  Seems like outdoor non-crowded might be OK but for those going Covid zero avoiding crowded situations will still be important.


VIC: COVID-19 commander Jeroen Weimar says the AAMI Park case is interesting

This is a person who was at the rugby international between Australia and France.

The person sat well outside the Tier 1 area, and was Tier 2 and got tested as part of that definition.

Those areas were revised after health officials saw some evidence of mingling outside of the grounds, which included the new case who moved from a Tier 2 zone to a Tier 1 zone case.

Initially while in Tier 2 this individual tested negative. The person was retested when he moved into the Tier 1 classification and was found to be positive.

The change in zones was made after health officials examined CCTV footage outside the ground.

"We've seen this case mingling. We know it's another case of transmission in the queues outside the ground getting in this case to gate 7," he said.

"Again we're seeing this evidence of transmission in those unstructured crowds outside those major events. That's why it was so important for us to have expanded this Tier 1 transmission."

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

From ABC:
A Tasmanian man in his 40s has died after receiving his first dose of AstraZeneca

He was a confirmed case of thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS), and his death will be investigated by the coroner.

In all good conscience, I still can't encourage anyone under 40 to get AZ. 

Mayb if NSW lose control of Delta and lift restrictions, I guess. 

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One thing that’s making me really frustrated is the prime minister constantly insinuating that vaccine hesitancy is the problem and at this point it really isn’t. Most people I know are willing to take Pfizer they just aren’t willing to risk Astra Zeneca.  The government is pushing the line that people should just take the AZ to avoid the COVID risk instead of acknowledging that they should have planned for more vaccine options in the first place😬.  Anti-vaccination is not our problem - lack of supply of a relatively safe vaccine is the problem.

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1 minute ago, Melissa Louise said:

In all good conscience, I still can't encourage anyone under 40 to get AZ. 

Mayb if NSW lose control of Delta and lift restrictions, I guess. 

Snap… posted simultaneously!  

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14 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

One thing that’s making me really frustrated is the prime minister constantly insinuating that vaccine hesitancy is the problem and at this point it really isn’t. Most people I know are willing to take Pfizer they just aren’t willing to risk Astra Zeneca.  The government is pushing the line that people should just take the AZ to avoid the COVID risk instead of acknowledging that they should have planned for more vaccine options in the first place😬.  Anti-vaccination is not our problem - lack of supply of a relatively safe vaccine is the problem.

Except in some places (Byron!) we're not a vaccine adverse nation. With good leadership and vaccine availability, getting to 80% should be possible.

At this stage we just need an alt vaccine for under 40's...Pfizer, Moderna, whatever. Trust is gone with AZ for that cohort. 

I'm pretty peeved at the 1 in 4 over 70's who are waiting for Pfizer though. Risk- benefit clearly in favour of AZ for them, esp in an outbreak.

Edited by Melissa Louise
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22 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

 Anti-vaccination is not our problem - lack of supply of a relatively safe vaccine is the problem.

I reckon our vaccination rates would be much higher if we could have got Pfizer from our local doctor instead of messing about with the online booking system and travelling out of town. *shrug* Maybe there's a good reason for that stuff though.

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2 minutes ago, Rosie_0801 said:

I reckon our vaccination rates would be much higher if we could have got Pfizer from our local doctor instead of messing about with the online booking system and travelling out of town. *shrug* Maybe there's a good reason for that stuff though.

It seems totally random who had had a smooth path to vaccination and who hasn't. 

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23 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

One thing that’s making me really frustrated is the prime minister constantly insinuating that vaccine hesitancy is the problem and at this point it really isn’t. Most people I know are willing to take Pfizer they just aren’t willing to risk Astra Zeneca.  The government is pushing the line that people should just take the AZ to avoid the COVID risk instead of acknowledging that they should have planned for more vaccine options in the first place😬.  Anti-vaccination is not our problem - lack of supply of a relatively safe vaccine is the problem.

Agree with the frustration. We have vaccine for under 18's here, but it's only one option. Pfizer is a good option for many, but for younger males there is increased risk in the vaccine.

I have literally had people say, "you're just asking for a different color lifeboat". There's a vaccine so it should be taken, otherwise resistance is considered irrational vaccine hesitancy.

We are in a fortunate location for many, that get vaccines that are right for them. But there is still work to be done. If we are supposed to vaccinate under 18's, then more than one option would be helpful. More types for adults would be helpful as well. I'm hopeful for Novavax.

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38 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

One thing that’s making me really frustrated is the prime minister constantly insinuating that vaccine hesitancy is the problem and at this point it really isn’t. Most people I know are willing to take Pfizer they just aren’t willing to risk Astra Zeneca.  The government is pushing the line that people should just take the AZ to avoid the COVID risk instead of acknowledging that they should have planned for more vaccine options in the first place😬.  Anti-vaccination is not our problem - lack of supply of a relatively safe vaccine is the problem.

 

25 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

 

I'm pretty peeved at the 1 in 4 over 70's who are waiting for Pfizer though. Risk- benefit clearly in favour of AZ for them, esp in an outbreak.

My husband’s elderly aunts in Australia aren’t willing to take the risk with AZ. They aren’t going out anyway and they have children dropping off groceries. 

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@Melissa in Australia

 

VIC: new local case visited a petrol station in East Gippsland

Do we know where the regional service station is?

-CH

Jeroen Weimar says, "the regional case that travelled back ... was in East Gippsland so they were coming back."

"It's one of the Trinity Grammar cases. They were travelling back when they got the message to go into isolation. They made a brief stop to get fuel for understandable reasons.

"The team checked the CCTV footage last night and it's exactly what we expect people to do. Great result.

Reporter asks: "What did that case do? What sort of things?"

Jeroen Weimar says, "they were masked. They sanitised their hands before they went into the servo. They sanitised their credit card."

"They kept their distance. They were in there for literally moments, the bare minimum engagement they needed to have.

"This is exactly the kind of thing, people have to make tough choices and if you're from East Gippsland to the city, that's challenging and you need to get fuel.

"I commend that person. 26 cases, 24 completely in quarantine. That's one of the cases that wasn't and she's done a fantastic job, I think."

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36 minutes ago, Rosie_0801 said:

I reckon our vaccination rates would be much higher if we could have got Pfizer from our local doctor instead of messing about with the online booking system and travelling out of town. *shrug* Maybe there's a good reason for that stuff though.

I have heard it is the temperature it has to be stored at. 

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8 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

@Melissa in Australia

 

VIC: new local case visited a petrol station in East Gippsland

Do we know where the regional service station is?

-CH

Jeroen Weimar says, "the regional case that travelled back ... was in East Gippsland so they were coming back."

"It's one of the Trinity Grammar cases. They were travelling back when they got the message to go into isolation. They made a brief stop to get fuel for understandable reasons.

"The team checked the CCTV footage last night and it's exactly what we expect people to do. Great result.

Reporter asks: "What did that case do? What sort of things?"

Jeroen Weimar says, "they were masked. They sanitised their hands before they went into the servo. They sanitised their credit card."

"They kept their distance. They were in there for literally moments, the bare minimum engagement they needed to have.

"This is exactly the kind of thing, people have to make tough choices and if you're from East Gippsland to the city, that's challenging and you need to get fuel.

"I commend that person. 26 cases, 24 completely in quarantine. That's one of the cases that wasn't and she's done a fantastic job, I think."

Thanks. Will look up the exact town. East gipps is my area

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31 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

 

My husband’s elderly aunts in Australia aren’t willing to take the risk with AZ. They aren’t going out anyway and they have children dropping off groceries. 

We have limited Pfizer; I think it should be going to those ATAGI recommends it for - the under 60's and the under 40's particularly. 

I've had AZ. All my relatives over 50 have had AZ. We are happy for Pfizer to be going to younger family members ( only the 40-50 yrs group so far, but hopefully younger groups as soon as there is capacity). 

 

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25 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

We have limited Pfizer; I think it should be going to those ATAGI recommends it for - the under 60's and the under 40's particularly. 

We understand. Our elderly relatives in Singapore had Pfizer. It is hard to convince “hermits” that the covid risk is going to be higher than AZ risk when they rather wait for more vaccination choices. Even my parents and in-laws make sure their wills are in order and they had Pfizer. 

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12 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

However the UK also tests much more.  We are offered two free lateral flow tests per week to use at home.  Eta other countries may have much higher rates than they are aware of.

https://youtu.be/KnCgQQ8yLAw

Screenshot_20210722-095224_YouTube.jpg

Edited by Laura Corin
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2 minutes ago, whitestavern said:

If they are not recommending AZ for people under 50, why are people still getting it? 

They are not recommending it for people under 60 atm. 

 but at the same time  some politicians are telling people they should take it and do their bit to help the country.   in almost the same breath they  say that you will be taking it "at your own risk."" which really inspires confidence

Also there isn't much else available 

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3 hours ago, Laura Corin said:

However the UK also tests much more.  We are offered two free lateral flow tests per week to use at home.  Eta other countries may have much higher rates than they are aware of.

https://youtu.be/KnCgQQ8yLAw

Screenshot_20210722-095224_YouTube.jpg

I can say for my area that many people avoid testing. That has been the case, particularly, since the start of last school year when a lot decided not to test so the kids wouldn’t have to miss school. As you can imagine, not a lot of community mindedness here. It pretty much is look after number 1 all the way. This is not just people who absolutely can’t afford not to be at work or school, it is a convenience thing. Added to that, most  non full time jobs don’t offer paid sick leave, so for those people it is especially hard.

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24 minutes ago, whitestavern said:

If they are not recommending AZ for people under 50, why are people still getting it? 

Basically ATAGI the vaccine recommendation group aren’t recommending it but the PM is trying to save face by telling people they just need to talk to their doctor and weigh up their own risk.  Therefore if they get COVID it’s not the governments fault because they chose not to get the vaccine and if they get the vaccine and die it’s also not the governments fault because they did it at their own risk.  

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39 minutes ago, TCB said:

I can say for my area that many people avoid testing. That has been the case, particularly, since the start of last school year when a lot decided not to test so the kids wouldn’t have to miss school. As you can imagine, not a lot of community mindedness here. It pretty much is look after number 1 all the way. This is not just people who absolutely can’t afford not to be at work or school, it is a convenience thing. Added to that, most  non full time jobs don’t offer paid sick leave, so for those people it is especially hard.

This is the same in my area. After a few families had to quarantine and so many didn’t become symptomatic, most families decide it was not worth testing. They didn’t want to deal with the possibly of missing activities if they were to end up quarantined.

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15 hours ago, Corraleno said:

If his hypothesis is correct, then Delta may cause significantly more cases of long covid than we've seen so far with earlier variants, since the data from this study showed viral load was more than 1000 times higher with Delta vs the original strain.

Thank you for linking that study. I was looking all over for it last week to link it after I mentioned the findings here about shorter interval to illness and hospitalization.  I’m trying to member who I told I would link it, I think perhaps it might have been @TCB,  who had said she had noticed that anecdotally among her patients.

15 hours ago, busymama7 said:

But how does it follow that so very many who were not very sick originally end up with long covid, like myself?  I thought the viral load being larger made for more serious sickness.  But I would almost say the majority of long haulers on the support groups were not hospitalized and say their initial illness was mild or moderate.   I have major brain fog so if this doesn't make sense, just blame that 😂

This is another one where I’m going to have to go back to find the study where I saw this, but I saw something in the last week or two indicating that, surprisingly, viral load doesn’t actually seem to be correlated to how sick people are. People can have really high viral loads and not get very sick.

12 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

For reference this is a picture of what crowding looked like at the gates 

https://au.sports.yahoo.com/covid-victoria-disturbing-photos-emere-amid-virus-outbreak-010650272.html

 

Yikes. Are those kind of events still being allowed, or have they stopped them now? I noticed that the majority of people are masked, but not everyone. Are any news reports reporting on the relationship with masking to who is getting sick and who is transmitting?

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15 hours ago, busymama7 said:

But how does it follow that so very many who were not very sick originally end up with long covid, like myself?  I thought the viral load being larger made for more serious sickness.  But I would almost say the majority of long haulers on the support groups were not hospitalized and say their initial illness was mild or moderate.   I have major brain fog so if this doesn't make sense, just blame that 😂

I think that a lot of people who have long COVID- especially those with brain fog and fatigue, actually developed an autoimmune disease that is not yet identifiable.  Many autoimmune diseases take a number of years to get a diagnosis because it takes a while for the body to start producing the antibodies at a level that is measurable.  

I know that when I get sick with anything- and I almost always get a bacterial infection on top of anything viral- I actually have less autoimmune symptoms.  But I know that every time I get better from the underlying infections, my autoimmune diseases flare because my immune system has been ramped up and now it has no bacteria to fight so fights my body instead.

I hope you get answers soon. 

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2 hours ago, Kakids said:

This is the same in my area. After a few families had to quarantine and so many didn’t become symptomatic, most families decide it was not worth testing. They didn’t want to deal with the possibly of missing activities if they were to end up quarantined.

There was a lot of talk locally that if you did get Covid and shared your contacts, you were turning people in like the Gestapo. 

I think some of these people did quarantine on their own, but still, the rhetoric was unreasonable and didn't send any kind of good message.

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2 minutes ago, TravelingChris said:

I think that a lot of people who have long COVID- especially those with brain fog and fatigue, actually developed an autoimmune disease that is not yet identifiable.  Many autoimmune diseases take a number of years to get a diagnosis because it takes a while for the body to start producing the antibodies at a level that is measurable.  

I know that when I get sick with anything- and I almost always get a bacterial infection on top of anything viral- I actually have less autoimmune symptoms.  But I know that every time I get better from the underlying infections, my autoimmune diseases flare because my immune system has been ramped up and now it has no bacteria to fight so fights my body instead.

I hope you get answers soon. 

Yeah we are pretty sure that is what is going on with me.  Autoimmune is all over my family.  I actually started a medication that I am pretty sure is helping.  I'm not anywhere near 100% but I have some improvement in pain. Still have other symptoms but pain is decreased. 

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18 hours ago, Corraleno said:

If his hypothesis is correct, then Delta may cause significantly more cases of long covid than we've seen so far with earlier variants, since the data from this study showed viral load was more than 1000 times higher with Delta vs the original strain.

The concept of 1,000 more times is what I heard for the first time last night, and pushed me over the edge.

If I had been told the viral load was TWICE as high, I would have been very worried. But, no, gotta jump right to 1,000!

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1 hour ago, Carrie12345 said:

The concept of 1,000 more times is what I heard for the first time last night, and pushed me over the edge.

If I had been told the viral load was TWICE as high, I would have been very worried. But, no, gotta jump right to 1,000!

Yeah, I'm fairly freaked out. I'm seeing multiple experts saying only brief contact is plenty long enough to spread it with Delta...ugh. 

Personally I'm also thinking contact will be more of an issue if people are hacking out 1,000 times as many viral units...even if most don't survive on the surface with so many there enough might linger long enough to be an issue. 

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1 hour ago, Carrie12345 said:

The concept of 1,000 more times is what I heard for the first time last night, and pushed me over the edge.

If I had been told the viral load was TWICE as high, I would have been very worried. But, no, gotta jump right to 1,000!

So, I only skimmed it, but is the point that the MAXIMUM is 1000 times as much, or just that it gets to the maximum much faster, and the maximum is about the same? 

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56 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

So, I only skimmed it, but is the point that the MAXIMUM is 1000 times as much, or just that it gets to the maximum much faster, and the maximum is about the same? 

what I read was that the amount of virus in a person's nose was 1000 times higher than with Alpha. 

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1 minute ago, ktgrok said:

what I read was that the amount of virus in a person's nose was 1000 times higher than with Alpha. 

But like... is that over the whole time? At the time of maximum viral load? Right at the beginning? I'm not sure I know what that means. 

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6 hours ago, KSera said:

Thank you for linking that study. I was looking all over for it last week to link it after I mentioned the findings here about shorter interval to illness and hospitalization.  I’m trying to member who I told I would link it, I think perhaps it might have been @TCB,  who had said she had noticed that anecdotally among her patients.

This is another one where I’m going to have to go back to find the study where I saw this, but I saw something in the last week or two indicating that, surprisingly, viral load doesn’t actually seem to be correlated to how sick people are. People can have really high viral loads and not get very sick.

Yikes. Are those kind of events still being allowed, or have they stopped them now? I noticed that the majority of people are masked, but not everyone. Are any news reports reporting on the relationship with masking to who is getting sick and who is transmitting?

They're stopped in some states, and masks made mandatory again. 

 

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2 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

But like... is that over the whole time? At the time of maximum viral load? Right at the beginning? I'm not sure I know what that means. 

In the Chinese study, they measured viral load on the day the test was positive, which for Delta patients was 4 days after exposure, vs 6 days for the original strain. So patients with Delta had viral loads on day 4 that were, on average, 1,260 times higher than Wuhan patients on day 6.

ETA: from the study:

"Our results showed the time interval from the exposure to first PCR positive in the quarantined population (n=29) was 6.00 (IQR 5.00-8.00) days in the 2020 epidemic (peak at 5.61 days) and was 4.00 (IQR 3.00-5.00) days in the 2021 (n=34) epidemic (peak at 3.71 days) (Figure 1B). We next evaluate the relative viral loads when SAS-CoV-2 viruses were firstly detected in hosts. Compared to the 19A/19 B strains, the relative viral loads in the Delta variant infections (62 cases, Ct value 24.00 (IQR 19.00~29.00) for ORF1ab gene) were 1260 times higher than the 19A/19B strains infections (63 cases, Ct value 34.31 (IQR 31.00~36.00) for ORF1ab gene) on the day when viruses were first detected"

Edited by Corraleno
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7 hours ago, KSera said:

Thank you for linking that study. I was looking all over for it last week to link it after I mentioned the findings here about shorter interval to illness and hospitalization.  I’m trying to member who I told I would link it, I think perhaps it might have been @TCB,  who had said she had noticed that anecdotally among her patients.

This is another one where I’m going to have to go back to find the study where I saw this, but I saw something in the last week or two indicating that, surprisingly, viral load doesn’t actually seem to be correlated to how sick people are. People can have really high viral loads and not get very sick.

Yikes. Are those kind of events still being allowed, or have they stopped them now? I noticed that the majority of people are masked, but not everyone. Are any news reports reporting on the relationship with masking to who is getting sick and who is transmitting?

Probably in QLD and WA but not in NSW, VIC or SA we’re all in lockdown.  Currently can’t go further than 2.5km from the house for exercise… not that that’s a problem. 😂

However that’s been pretty normal here over the last six months.  Feb we were still at slightly reduced capacity but because there hasn’t been Covid in the community life has really just been normal.  Really really hoping that we can get back to that point through lockdowns etc though the numbers from NSW aren’t really looking promising.  They really left things a few days too late this time around.

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1 hour ago, Corraleno said:

In the Chinese study, they measured viral load on the day the test was positive, which for Delta patients was 4 days after exposure, vs 6 days for the original strain. So patients with Delta had viral loads on day 4 that were, on average, 1,260 times higher than Wuhan patients on day 6.

ETA: from the study:

"Our results showed the time interval from the exposure to first PCR positive in the quarantined population (n=29) was 6.00 (IQR 5.00-8.00) days in the 2020 epidemic (peak at 5.61 days) and was 4.00 (IQR 3.00-5.00) days in the 2021 (n=34) epidemic (peak at 3.71 days) (Figure 1B). We next evaluate the relative viral loads when SAS-CoV-2 viruses were firstly detected in hosts. Compared to the 19A/19 B strains, the relative viral loads in the Delta variant infections (62 cases, Ct value 24.00 (IQR 19.00~29.00) for ORF1ab gene) were 1260 times higher than the 19A/19B strains infections (63 cases, Ct value 34.31 (IQR 31.00~36.00) for ORF1ab gene) on the day when viruses were first detected"

So that means that it's 1000 times more on the date of the first positive test, not in general, right? 

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9 hours ago, TravelingChris said:

I think that a lot of people who have long COVID- especially those with brain fog and fatigue, actually developed an autoimmune disease that is not yet identifiable.  Many autoimmune diseases take a number of years to get a diagnosis because it takes a while for the body to start producing the antibodies at a level that is measurable.  

I know that when I get sick with anything- and I almost always get a bacterial infection on top of anything viral- I actually have less autoimmune symptoms.  But I know that every time I get better from the underlying infections, my autoimmune diseases flare because my immune system has been ramped up and now it has no bacteria to fight so fights my body instead.

I hope you get answers soon. 

Now I know why my psoriasis cleared up when I had Covid.

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