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gardenmom5

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Bangladesh is having a surge but lifted restrictions for 10 days to allow the celebration of Eid.  I'm expecting things to get really bad there, really fast 🙁. They are going on a strict lockdown on the 23rd for two weeks but with all the holiday traveling allowed this week, I'm not sure that will help.

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5 minutes ago, Terabith said:

Okay, I just read this article, and I am scared.  I don't know who this guy is or if he's remotely trustworthy, but the logic is, well, logical.  @Not_a_Number or @regentrude, could you guys look at the math?  https://stephendinan.substack.com/p/why-we-are-headed-for-a-brutal-fall?r=3ziav&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter

sorry, I don't have the mental capacity to figure out what he's calculating.
 

But his conclusion that things will get much worse makes perfect sense, seeing how low the vax rates are, how little precautions there are, and what trajectories we're heading on. In my state, things are as bad as in January.

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7 minutes ago, Terabith said:

Okay, I just read this article, and I am scared.  I don't know who this guy is or if he's remotely trustworthy, but the logic is, well, logical.  @Not_a_Number or @regentrude, could you guys look at the math?  https://stephendinan.substack.com/p/why-we-are-headed-for-a-brutal-fall?r=3ziav&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter

Yep.  I read today the CDC said Delta is now 83% of new cases.  So pretty spot on.  I think this has been thought what was going to happen.  I feel like it is just coming faster than what was out a few weeks ago that said we were going to be in for a bad fall and winter.  Now it seems like summer is getting scarier.  

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@Terabith I read it...I'm not scared per se. Concerned that we are taking precautions. Pretty much glad I made the trip back to see family a month ago. We never stopped masking and taking precautions either. Making changes while keeping an eye on the risks based on the size of the group. I keep going back to this to help me. My decisions are a bit different for my vax'd son and my unvax'd daughter. There are some global areas added to this now.

https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/



 

Edited by calbear
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This is the guy's bio:

Stephen Dinan, a bestselling author, social entrepreneur and visionary political strategist, is the founder and CEO of The Shift Network, a leading global provider of online transformational courses and trainings. He was previously a senior staffer for both the Institute of Noetic Sciences (IONS) and Esalen Institute. At IONS he was the driving force behind the Shift in Action program; and, at Esalen he directed and helped to create the Center for Theory and Research—a think tank for scholars, researchers, and teachers to explore human potential frontiers. Stephen is the author of the bestselling book Sacred America, Sacred World: Fulfilling Our Mission in Service to All (Hampton Roads) and Radical Spirit (New World Library). He is a graduate of Stanford University and holds a master’s in East-West Psychology from the California Institute of Integral Studies. Stephen is also a member of the prestigious Transformational Leadership Council and Evolutionary Leaders groups. He resides in the San Francisco Bay Area with his family.

 

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6 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-20/nsw-lockdown-needs-to-run-to-september-for-delta-cases-to-drop/100307698

Five more weeks of lockdown to go, according to this modelling - if we're lucky. 

That sucks - but at least your government is trying to do something. And aiming at cases to fall below 5? Ambitious. Meanwhile, in my state, we have 1400+ new cases daily and no restrictions whatsoever. It is truly mindboggling.

Edited by regentrude
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1 hour ago, calbear said:

@Terabith I read it...I'm not scared per se. Concerned that we are taking precautions. Pretty much glad I made the trip back to see family a month ago. We never stopped masking and taking precautions either. Making changes while keeping an eye on the risks based on the size of the group. I keep going back to this to help me. My decisions are a bit different for my vax'd son and my unvax'd daughter. There are some global areas added to this now.

https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/



 

I don't see as much value in this map anymore because so much has changed with regards to testing and reporting.  

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1 hour ago, calbear said:

This is the guy's bio:

Stephen Dinan, a bestselling author, social entrepreneur and visionary political strategist, is the founder and CEO of The Shift Network, a leading global provider of online transformational courses and trainings. He was previously a senior staffer for both the Institute of Noetic Sciences (IONS) and Esalen Institute. At IONS he was the driving force behind the Shift in Action program; and, at Esalen he directed and helped to create the Center for Theory and Research—a think tank for scholars, researchers, and teachers to explore human potential frontiers. Stephen is the author of the bestselling book Sacred America, Sacred World: Fulfilling Our Mission in Service to All (Hampton Roads) and Radical Spirit (New World Library). He is a graduate of Stanford University and holds a master’s in East-West Psychology from the California Institute of Integral Studies. Stephen is also a member of the prestigious Transformational Leadership Council and Evolutionary Leaders groups. He resides in the San Francisco Bay Area with his family.

 

Well that resume doesn't sound like he really knows much but is guessing

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46 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-20/nsw-lockdown-needs-to-run-to-september-for-delta-cases-to-drop/100307698

Five more weeks of lockdown to go, according to this modelling - if we're lucky. 

 

We are at a strict level of lockdown with cases below five. But I guess it’s unknown/unlinked cases that’s the real worry.

We had one more overnight so at six cases now.

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2 hours ago, regentrude said:

That sucks - but at least your government is trying to do something. And aiming at cases to fall below 5? Ambitious. Meanwhile, in my state, we have 1400+ new cases daily and no restrictions whatsoever. It is truly mindboggling.

We only have just over 10% of people vaccinated, and no recommended vaccines available for most under 30's, so not much choice...though we have our own 'let it rip' contingent. 

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2 hours ago, TravelingChris said:

Well that resume doesn't sound like he really knows much but is guessing

Right, his resume is definitely not epidemiology.  But as we know from the Hive, there are lots of people who might not have a degree in something who have developed expertise.   

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8 minutes ago, Terabith said:

Right, his resume is definitely not epidemiology.  But as we know from the Hive, there are lots of people who might not have a degree in something who have developed expertise.   

I will be 100% consistent with what I have said about  any “expert”. Unless you are an actual medical expert in virology or epidemiology then I don’t give them any more credence than a well read WTM board member. I may agree or disagree with their opinion but they aren’t a reputable expert on the subject. 

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3 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I will be 100% consistent with what I have said about  any “expert”. Unless you are an actual medical expert in virology or epidemiology then I don’t give them any more credence than a well read WTM board member. I may agree or disagree with their opinion but they aren’t a reputable expert on the subject. 

Of course, sometimes it's not clear you do want the experts. I mean, you do if you want a precise narrow view, but this pandemic has required shifting and quick thinking as much as anything... 

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7 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Of course, sometimes it's not clear you do want the experts. I mean, you do if you want a precise narrow view, but this pandemic has required shifting and quick thinking as much as anything... 

I don’t think that it’s fair to say that someone isn’t qualified if they seem wonky but accept someone else who isn’t really qualified just because we like what they say. 

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18 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I don’t think that it’s fair to say that someone isn’t qualified if they seem wonky but accept someone else who isn’t really qualified just because we like what they say. 

No, I wasn't arguing that we should! It was kind of an unrelated comment to the discussion of the specific guy. Just random musing -- honestly, I've found a few fellow Hive members more reliable than the average expert, mostly because they have a broader view. 

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26 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

No, I wasn't arguing that we should! It was kind of an unrelated comment to the discussion of the specific guy. Just random musing -- honestly, I've found a few fellow Hive members more reliable than the average expert, mostly because they have a broader view. 

Yeah, I have been impressed by the Hive's conclusions on covid and how they have almost all arrived (with sources cited) weeks before official sources have concluded it, including about the prevalence of some relatively rare side effects.  Frankly, I think the Hive collectively may spend more time reading journal articles than the average researcher, too.  

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4 minutes ago, Terabith said:

Yeah, I have been impressed by the Hive's conclusions on covid and how they have almost all arrived (with sources cited) weeks before official sources have concluded it, including about the prevalence of some relatively rare side effects.  Frankly, I think the Hive collectively may spend more time reading journal articles than the average researcher, too.  

And they definitely spend more time reading other Hive members' research 😉 . I do think that having a community of engaged, interested people to talk to can be super helpful. 

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5 minutes ago, Terabith said:

Yeah, I have been impressed by the Hive's conclusions on covid and how they have almost all arrived (with sources cited) weeks before official sources have concluded it, including about the prevalence of some relatively rare side effects.  Frankly, I think the Hive collectively may spend more time reading journal articles than the average researcher, too.  

Which side effects are you thinking of, by the way? 

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5 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Which side effects are you thinking of, by the way? 

Cardiomyopathy, I think?  Though I think there was something maybe even rarer than that that was kinda trivial and then weeks later I found a Med Page press release about the data on it.  I can't remember, honestly.

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110 cases for NSW

22 for VIC

1 for SA.

Delta does seem to move decidedly faster even what strict measures in place numbers are stable not dropping. That may reflect the difference between the way the public interpret the situation this time around. Moving average worldwide is back over 500,000 with a definite uptick toward a 3rd wave.  Israel had 1491 cases which is highest since back in March though deaths seem to be staying low which seems positive for vaccination!

NYT has an article showing J&J performed significantly worse than Pfizer etc again delta and worse than their own study showed.  It’s paywalled for me so if anyone has access feel free to detail more.  The study (pre-print only) is also linked via the daily mail article but I don’t have time to wade through it right now but let me know if you have any thoughts.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-9807911/One-shot-Johnson-Johnson-COVID-19-vaccine-lesseffective-against-Delta-variant.html

 

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from ABC

@Not_a_Number - re outdoor transmission (sorry about the huge font)
 

VIC: AAMI park exposure site of particular concern

As we heard a short time ago, two of today's new cases are linked to AAMI park, and were both seated within "two or three rows" of the index case.

Professor Sutton says while that's not uncommon indoors, for it to occur outdoors is "of some concern".

"If you are sitting in zone two, sections 22, 23 or 24, you need to be quarantining right now," he said.

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US study (most authors are at U Chicago) just published in Science found really good results both in vitro and in mice using a drug called Masitinib, which has already had Phase 2/3 trials in humans for a wide variety of other diseases. Excerpt:

Masitinib treatment [in mice] resulted in over 2-logs reduction in viral titers in the lungs and nose on day 6 (Fig. 4, B and C). It further improved overall lung pathology (as blindly assessed by a veterinarian pathologist; Fig. 4, E and F) and significantly reduced the levels of key pro-inflammatory cytokines (such as IL-1β and IFNγ) in the lungs (Fig. 4G). Further, we observed improvements in survival (Fig. 4D), weight loss (fig. S10B) and clinical scores (fig. S10C) with masitinib treatment. Taken together, our results show that masitinib is effective in reducing SARS-CoV-2 viral load in mice (reducing >99% of the viral load on day 6), reduced inflammatory signatures, and showed potential benefits for survival and clinical scores.
.....
In addition to its direct antiviral effect described here, masitinib has been shown to decrease airway inflammation and improve lung functions in a feline model of asthma (40). Given that a main pathology of SARS-CoV-2 is ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome), the combined antiviral and anti-inflammatory properties of masitinib might prove beneficial for treating COVID-19 patients. However, the timing of masitinib’s anti-inflammatory effects should be carefully studied, as it is not clear if a reduction in the inflammatory response would be desirable at the early phases of disease that is dominated by viral replication.

Future efforts should evaluate the efficacy of masitinib in treating COVID-19 patients. While a phase 2 clinical trial has been registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (Identifier: NCT04622865) to test the effect of a combined treatment of masitinib and isoquercetin on hospitalized patients, our data suggests that masitinib would be most beneficial at early times after infection, when an antiviral is likely to have the biggest effect. Oral use of masitinib would make such early treatment feasible. Furthermore, future development of masitinib analogs with lower anti-tyrosine kinase activity would be beneficial to reduce its reported side effects. Masitinib is also interesting in that it is potent against multiple corona and picornaviruses in vitro and may have potential for treating other viral diseases.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/07/19/science.abg5827

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2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

from ABC

@Not_a_Number - re outdoor transmission (sorry about the huge font)
 

VIC: AAMI park exposure site of particular concern

As we heard a short time ago, two of today's new cases are linked to AAMI park, and were both seated within "two or three rows" of the index case.

Professor Sutton says while that's not uncommon indoors, for it to occur outdoors is "of some concern".

"If you are sitting in zone two, sections 22, 23 or 24, you need to be quarantining right now," he said.

Oh, geez. That's just scary. 

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What are people hearing about the risk to the elderly who are vaccinated.  I am having trouble figuring out how the 90% protected interacts with the high risk level before the vaccine.  

I read here that unvaccinated people over 85 are 600 times as likely as 18-29 year olds to die from covid.  If so does that mean my vaccinated loved one is still 60 times as likely to die as an unvaccinated 18-29 year old?   Because if that’s true than I need to rethink my decision about my kids and school.  

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html

@wathe and @TCB what are you seeing in real life?

Edited by BaseballandHockey
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19 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

Ausmum I see there are 6 more cases for your state this afternoon

 thinking of you 

Thank you yes.  5 cases linked to a winery.  It’s mostly outdoor dining there though the cases may have been staff.  In terms of safe locations I would have thought they would have been OK. 

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10 hours ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I will be 100% consistent with what I have said about  any “expert”. Unless you are an actual medical expert in virology or epidemiology then I don’t give them any more credence than a well read WTM board member. I may agree or disagree with their opinion but they aren’t a reputable expert on the subject. 

For me, it depends on what they are talking about.  For example, I read a article in a scientific magazine written by 2 bio-physicists who have been devoting their studies to viruses- there title was actually something more specific than bio-physicist but they were some type of virologist physicist combo and looking at their credentials, they checked out.  I may also listen to all kinds of other medical experts if they are talking about their field- rheumatology expert discussing COVID in rheumatology, for example.    

That guy had woo credentials and I just stay away from woo people all together.

 

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7 hours ago, BaseballandHockey said:

What are people hearing about the risk to the elderly who are vaccinated.  I am having trouble figuring out how the 90% protected interacts with the high risk level before the vaccine.  

I read here that unvaccinated people over 85 are 600 times as likely as 18-29 year olds to die from covid.  If so does that mean my vaccinated loved one is still 60 times as likely to die as an unvaccinated 18-29 year old?   Because if that’s true than I need to rethink my decision about my kids and school.  

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html

@wathe and @TCB what are you seeing in real life?

We are not seeing the vaccinated elderly in ICU, or at least not seriously ill and intubated. It is startling the difference between unvaccinated and vaccinated in ICU. 
Having said that, my vaccinated elderly parents are still being cautious, wearing masks inside and not going just anywhere, and I’m glad they aren’t just throwing caution to the wind.

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7 hours ago, BaseballandHockey said:

What are people hearing about the risk to the elderly who are vaccinated.  I am having trouble figuring out how the 90% protected interacts with the high risk level before the vaccine.  

I read here that unvaccinated people over 85 are 600 times as likely as 18-29 year olds to die from covid.  If so does that mean my vaccinated loved one is still 60 times as likely to die as an unvaccinated 18-29 year old?   Because if that’s true than I need to rethink my decision about my kids and school.  

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html

@wathe and @TCB what are you seeing in real life?

I think that once you take a 20th of the risk, it’s in line with other risks. Pretty much everything is riskier for an elderly person than for a 20-year-old…

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Do any of our hive experts know anything about this herb? This was posted on one of my groups by someone who works with a mission group in Thailand. It definitely sounds like this might lead to a new first stage antiviral, which would be awesome, if it pans out.

 

https://www.bangkokpost.com/life/social-and-lifestyle/2101707/a-promising-development-in-the-fight-against-covid?fbclid=IwAR2CwD0isSYIzUlYcRi0BCRBgspXsJARCuT3hk5FmHCdqlWw6Zfp-wZf_2w

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1 hour ago, TravelingChris said:

For me, it depends on what they are talking about.  For example, I read a article in a scientific magazine written by 2 bio-physicists who have been devoting their studies to viruses- there title was actually something more specific than bio-physicist but they were some type of virologist physicist combo and looking at their credentials, they checked out.  I may also listen to all kinds of other medical experts if they are talking about their field- rheumatology expert discussing COVID in rheumatology, for example.    

That guy had woo credentials and I just stay away from woo people all together.

 

He’s totally woo.  But linked at the bottom of the article linked above is an article he wrote about how the woo community worldview is vulnerable to conspiracy-thinking, and that’s an area where he has some expertise.  
 

I read it hoping to gain some common vocabulary for talking with my essential-oil peddling, yoga-teaching, COVID-denying relatives.  I think it will be helpful.  
 

Edited by Danae
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4 hours ago, Dmmetler said:

Do any of our hive experts know anything about this herb? This was posted on one of my groups by someone who works with a mission group in Thailand. It definitely sounds like this might lead to a new first stage antiviral, which would be awesome, if it pans out.

 

https://www.bangkokpost.com/life/social-and-lifestyle/2101707/a-promising-development-in-the-fight-against-covid?fbclid=IwAR2CwD0isSYIzUlYcRi0BCRBgspXsJARCuT3hk5FmHCdqlWw6Zfp-wZf_2w

I wouldn't put much stock in that report. There was no control group, they said it's only appropriate for people with mild or asymptomatic cases, and it resolves the (mild) symptoms within 5-7 days — which is probably true for most people with mild or asymptomatic cases even without the herb. They did not even do PCR tests to confirm that the virus was cleared, just relied on patient reports that they felt better. You can't take it for more than 5-7 days or it causes numbness in extremities, lowers blood pressure, and can cause kidney issues, and the fact that it can't be taken by anyone who is pregnant, nursing, or using blood thinners or blood pressure medications, would eliminate a huge percentage of the US population that is most at risk for developing severe covid anyway.

Edited by Corraleno
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2 hours ago, Dmmetler said:

Do any of our hive experts know anything about this herb? This was posted on one of my groups by someone who works with a mission group in Thailand. It definitely sounds like this might lead to a new first stage antiviral, which would be awesome, if it pans out.

 

https://www.bangkokpost.com/life/social-and-lifestyle/2101707/a-promising-development-in-the-fight-against-covid?fbclid=IwAR2CwD0isSYIzUlYcRi0BCRBgspXsJARCuT3hk5FmHCdqlWw6Zfp-wZf_2w


Andrographis is part of Buhner Lyme protocol.  
 

And a bottle of andrographis tincture is part of my tick bite first aid kit.  I think it’s at its best very early at slightest sign of something it might help (tick bite, slight skin infection, slight respiratory infection) being wrong. And best in conjunction with other herbs, vitamins etc. 

Like many herbs it has broad uses, including traditionally for respiratory infections .
 

I have used it successfully topically on a dog skin infection where vet remedies had been unsuccessfully tried first... the only situation I had personal experience of it dealing successfully with a problem beyond the very early stage. 

As a tincture it is very bitter! 

 


I personally lean toward IVM and HCQ/zinc in re CV19, but given general use for respiratory infections andrographis could well be useful. Houttuynia herb was, according to Buhner, apparently helpful for genetically similar SARS1. 

 

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21 hours ago, calbear said:

This is a cost no one has really been talking about...how many children have lost their parent/primary caregiver. The disproportionate impact on families of color...and the long term impact for this children's futures.

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/nearly-120-000-children-us-100606407.html

 

Thank you for sharing this  One of the things that consistently bothers me when people say that children aren’t seriously affected by Covid, is that it neglects to take into account the significant impacts on kids when their loved ones are impacted. Kids don’t live in bubbles. For 120,000 kids in this country to have lost their primary caregiver is an incredible tragedy. We can’t protect kids without also protecting adults.

 

15 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

And they definitely spend more time reading other Hive members' research 😉 . I do think that having a community of engaged, interested people to talk to can be super helpful. 

I agree, but also caution that needs to be balanced by reading actual expert sources yourself as well. Because for a large portion of the people who’ve been sucked into the conspiracy theory and pseudoscience and denial stuff, that’s all coming from them having a community of other people also into those things that they are engaging with, and they’re all just getting deeper and deeper into it together. 

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2 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

That article includes the following statement:

"a U.S. study not yet peer-reviewed, found that when tested against all variants, the overall vaccine effectiveness of the Moderna or Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines after two doses at preventing hospitalization was 86.9% — although it should be noted that the alpha variant was the most common type, 59.7% of sequenced viruses, in the study data."

So that is only 87% effective against hospitalization, not even infection, and that is against all variants, so would likely be even lower against Delta. 

Does anyone know what study they are referencing here? I can't seem to find any links to the actual study.

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UK sees 44,104 more Covid-19 cases in highest Wednesday figure since January 13 - and 73 more deaths (msn.com)

 

'I'm sorry, but it's too late' - unvaccinated patients beg for shot; here comes the lambda variant: COVID news (msn.com)

 

You got a coronavirus vaccine. But you still became infected. How did that happen? (msn.com)

Whether the breakthrough infection that involves symptoms could result in long covid remains unknown.

“We’re in a data-free zone here,” said Steven G. Deeks, an infectious-disease physician at the University of California at San Francisco who studies covid-19′s long-term effects. “We have no idea — none whatsoever — as to whether breakthrough infections will cause PASC,” he said, referring to post-acute sequelae of covid-19, the clinical name for long covid.

Deeks hypothesizes that long covid depends, in part, on the amount of virus present in the early stage of infection.

“One hopes that the virus load in people with breakthrough infections will generally be lower,” Deeks said. That, in turn, could mean a lower risk for developing long covid.

 

 

COVID-19 cases in US triple over 2 weeks amid misinformation (msn.com)

 

 

U.S. Life Expectancy Plunged in 2020, Especially for Black and Hispanic Americans (msn.com)

 

 

Edited by mommyoffive
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2 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

Deeks hypothesizes that long covid depends, in part, on the amount of virus present in the early stage of infection.

If his hypothesis is correct, then Delta may cause significantly more cases of long covid than we've seen so far with earlier variants, since the data from this study showed viral load was more than 1000 times higher with Delta vs the original strain.

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