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gardenmom5

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10 hours ago, JennyD said:

The DOG got covid???!

My husband knows someone whose dog likely had Covid plus myocarditis afterward from a family member who really likes to love on the dog. I don’t have current information on the dog’s health except that is was likely to recover.

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This is from the Conversation.  It is an interesting article on how the governments will need to factor in long covid to their calculations of how much a life/debilitated life will cost them, and how this might impact policy about controlling it.

https://theconversation.com/why-governments-will-have-to-consider-the-costs-of-long-covid-when-easing-pandemic-restrictions-164944

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9 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

Thank you

He is back home, discharged himself from hospital. still with the very strange headache but feels a bit better than yesterday

Did they ever determine via imaging or anything if there actually were blood clots, or is it thought now that it's just a weird headache?

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1 minute ago, KSera said:

Did they ever determine via imaging or anything if there actually were blood clots, or is it thought now that it's just a weird headache?

They did bloodtests that came back as negative for blood clots, but all the symptoms of bloodclots so are treating it as if it is. 

Edited by Melissa in Australia
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NSW numbers keep going up. 

Guess 5 weeks of a half-hearted lockdown is barely keeping the lid on this thing. 

Dispiritingly, there's a lot of overt racism in the comments I'm reading. A lot of blaming 'it' on the Asians and the Muslims in mine and other areas. Idiots saying that our LGA's should be patrolled by the military. 

 

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18 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

NSW numbers keep going up. 

Guess 5 weeks of a half-hearted lockdown is barely keeping the lid on this thing. 

Dispiritingly, there's a lot of overt racism in the comments I'm reading. A lot of blaming 'it' on the Asians and the Muslims in mine and other areas. Idiots saying that our LGA's should be patrolled by the military. 

 

Eek 😬 

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7 cases for Vic, 2 for SA, 

NSW unfortunately at 239.  So disappointing that people are blaming individuals/races.  Gov should have responded harder and earlier.

For those following the long incubation story the case in Queensland was confirmed by genomics to link to cases on the plane flight not in hotel quarantine so is a definite case of an incubation period longer than 14 days.  I’m not sure what the testing regime is in QLD to know if it was not detectable before the 14 days was up which seems likely to be the case but pretty worrying from a hotel quarantine perspective.

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OK I read in more depth and the queensland guy contracted covid on the flight according to genomic testing but then tested negative three times over for fourteen days in quarantine.  He was released from quarantine flew to WA and back to QLD before testing positive.  It seems kind of worrying that the virus could be there that long without being detectable.

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11 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

7 cases for Vic, 2 for SA, 

NSW unfortunately at 239.  So disappointing that people are blaming individuals/races.  Gov should have responded harder and earlier.

For those following the long incubation story the case in Queensland was confirmed by genomics to link to cases on the plane flight not in hotel quarantine so is a definite case of an incubation period longer than 14 days.  I’m not sure what the testing regime is in QLD to know if it was not detectable before the 14 days was up which seems likely to be the case but pretty worrying from a hotel quarantine perspective.

This d*^% virus! The more it transmits, the more it’s going to select for this kind of thing that evades our current strategies. We’re not moving fast enough to squash this before it mutates. 

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4 minutes ago, KSera said:

This d*^% virus! The more it transmits, the more it’s going to select for this kind of thing that evades our current strategies. We’re not moving fast enough to squash this before it mutates. 

Maybe eventually it'll mutate into something relatively harmless??? Fingers crossed. 

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15 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

For those following the long incubation story the case in Queensland was confirmed by genomics to link to cases on the plane flight not in hotel quarantine so is a definite case of an incubation period longer than 14 days.  I’m not sure what the testing regime is in QLD to know if it was not detectable before the 14 days was up which seems likely to be the case but pretty worrying from a hotel quarantine perspective.

NZ has also had one case that got covid on day 17.  But this was only 1 out of the 160,000 people who have gone through quarantine. And we absolutely know this because we have had no covid in the community for 15 months (with the exception of 3 weeks in Auckland last August).

Just looks like an outlier. 

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Just now, lewelma said:

NZ has also had one case that got covid on day 17.  But this was only 1 out of the 160,000 people who have gone through quarantine. And we absolutely know this because we have had no covid in the community for 15 months (with the exception of 3 weeks in Auckland last August).

Just looks like an outlier. 

Yeah, I was going to say that. One does expect SOME outliers. 

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from BNO


U.S. COVID update: Biggest one-day increase in cases since February, number in hospital continues to surge

- New cases: 88,376
- Average: 66,633 (+4,222)
- In hospital: 42,610 (+3,322)
- In ICU: 10,463 (+612)
- New deaths: 488
 

I have to say this forum seems to be somewhat representative; each time there’s a surge we get a handful of boardies dealing with it in their family or extended family. 😞 

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4 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I have to say this forum seems to be somewhat representative; each time there’s a surge we get a handful of boardies dealing with it in their family or extended family. 😞 

Yes, yes it is. Previously selected samples are MUCH better than the ones self-selected later according to the quality being studied, even if the population isn't actually random. 

That's why I love the anecdata on here. 

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For those interested in discussions round whether delta is more dangerous or not

 https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/coronacast/is-delta-deadlier-for-younger-people/13470692
 

I had a lovely big summary typed out but lost it!

From the transcript 

“What's happening here, yes, it is a bit counterintuitive. So it's not so much, at least on current data, that it's more virulent in younger people, the Delta virus seems more virulent overall, and there is a preprint, in other words a not yet peer-reviewed study from Ontario in Canada looking at virulence. And their estimates are that the Delta variant had 120% increase for hospitalisation, 287% increased likelihood of ICU admission, and 137% increased risk of death. So those are fairly significant increases in virulence. 
So we are not seeing that necessarily with hospitalisation in New South Wales, it's still about 10% which is what it has been pretty much since the beginning of the pandemic, but we are definitely seeing higher rates of ICU admission and it's probably on low numbers still too early to say about death but we are seeing significant numbers of deaths for the number of cases that we've had.”

and

“So it may be that the virus itself, particle for particle, is actually not that more virulent but the fact is that you've got a virus being produced in massive amounts in people, some people have said 1,000 times greater amounts, numbers, that you had before, and that when you catch it you are catching a walloping dose of the virus, and therefore you are more likely to get serious disease. 
So it may well be…and this is where it fits with the theory, is that it may well be, funnily enough (there's nothing funny about it) less virulent by viral particle to viral particle, but because you get it in such large doses because the body is producing more of it, it is more virulent, and that's what could be going on here.”

 

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17 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

The UK numbers are looking pretty fascinating.  Does anyone know if there’s a shift in percent positive alongside the shift in daily case numbers?

England regions are here:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-covid-positivity

This is the positivity for Scotland:

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/phs.covid.19/viz/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

image.png.2d803be37bbd733a5659b8179cacbbe3.png

Edited by Laura Corin
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29 minutes ago, Laura Corin said:

so it looks like percentage positive has dropped suddenly at the same time as cases.  It’s such a spikey graph - will be very interesting to know what happened.  Here 90% is the magic figure that keeps getting thrown around for herd immunity so maybe UK is finally there!

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8 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

so it looks like percentage positive has dropped suddenly at the same time as cases.  It’s such a spikey graph - will be very interesting to know what happened.  Here 90% is the magic figure that keeps getting thrown around for herd immunity so maybe UK is finally there!

Supposedly we are there for adults.  The ONS surveys the population more-or-less randomly (it's not perfect) linked in this article:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833

 

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2 hours ago, lewelma said:

Concerning UK: This article is suggesting that the covid transmission will be in an "endemic equilibrium" with decaying vaccine effectiveness.  

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/uk/300369210/why-covid19-cases-are-falling-in-the-uk--and-what-could-happen-next

Thanks, I had heard the SIR model term being thrown around and it’s nice to have a kind of simple layman’s explanation of it.

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3 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Would it actually work like that though given that the kids are equally mixed through the population? 

I've no idea.  And only high-risk children are being vaccinated at present.

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It appears that nightclubs in the UK will now allow people to enter using test results after September despite previously advertising this would not be possible. An NHS COVID pass would be required, meaning nightclubs will require one of the following:

- full vaccination with a UK-approved vaccine + 2 weeks' wait + either NHS Passport app confirmation or a letter from the NHS confirming vaccination completion (this one doesn't expire)

- negative (any type) test + NHS Passport app confirmation (this expires after 48 hours)

- positive PCR test + completion of legal self-isolation requirement (10 days unless otherwise specified) + NHS Passport app confirmation (I assume this is due to antibodies, though no antibody test is required, expected or in any way useful for securing a NHS COVID pass. It expires after 180 days/almost 6 months).

The first of these is the only one which allows international travel, but domestic venues that requires proof of COVID-free status are likely to accept any of the three, since they're to ask for a pass rather than a specific method of passing. Links to how this is done in the various parts of the UK here.

If you got your vaccine abroad and it's not UK-approved (for example, it's the two-dose Janssen or Novovax), it's not clear exactly how the proof system will work (the NHS Covid app for use with a test result requires an NHS number - though you don't have to know what that number is - and tourists wouldn't have a NHS number unless they'd needed NHS care at some point).

I do not expect to need a vaccination letter in the near future, but have ordered one anyway (free of charge, online-only - how this will work for the 20% with no internet is anyone's guess) because I completed my COVID vaccination course more than 2 weeks ago.

In other news, a trust in Northern Ireland has cancelled some operations due to COVID-related staff shortages. 500 staff currently off work either with COVID or isolating due to close contact with people who have COVID. This is despite some healthcare workers now being exempt from having to self-isolate if they are informed a close contact has COVID if they themselves test negative.

Currently, 10 COVID patients total in the community are in intensive care - it's not clear what that Trust's total ICU capacity is. Also note that other elective surgeries in the same Trust are continuing as usual, which indicates it's a specialty-specific problem at the moment.

The Isle of Man has a test shortage due to high numbers of cases and suspected cases, and has temporarily banned nursing home visits.

On the other hand, a Northern Ireland study has shown that mental health is now back to where it was pre-pandemic, despite many restrictions still being in place there (unlike England). This shows that people do, to some degree, get used to restrictions - provided they can see that one day fairly soon, they are going to be gone.

Edited by ieta_cassiopeia
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7 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

The UK numbers are looking pretty fascinating.  Does anyone know if there’s a shift in percent positive alongside the shift in daily case numbers?

I don’t know that answer, but saw this chart this morning that shows pretty starkly how well the vaccines are working there:

 

D040C0CB-62C9-4C69-AED2-4CC8638069E8.jpeg

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54 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

Thanks.  Trying to multi task when I first wake up is not a really successful strategy! 

The vaccine usage has varied by age cohort over time. The oldest and most frail mostly got Pfizer. The middle aged mostly got AZ. The under 40s Pfizer and Moderna. 

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3 hours ago, KSera said:

I don’t know that answer, but saw this chart this morning that shows pretty starkly how well the vaccines are working there:

 

D040C0CB-62C9-4C69-AED2-4CC8638069E8.jpeg

It would be interesting to see actual hospitalizations. I know some vaccinated are hospitalized but not sure of the extent. Curious how common it is. 

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53 minutes ago, frogger said:

It would be interesting to see actual hospitalizations. I know some vaccinated are hospitalized but not sure of the extent. Curious how common it is. 

This is Scotland 

BBC News - Covid: Have we passed the peak and can we relax?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57971990

The last announcement was that 60 percent of those hospitalised were unvaccinated. Which is an enormous percentage if you consider the very high vaccination rates.

Screenshot_20210729-200316_BBC News.jpg

Edited by Laura Corin
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4 hours ago, frogger said:

It would be interesting to see actual hospitalizations. I know some vaccinated are hospitalized but not sure of the extent. Curious how common it is. 

My best friend's mother is currently in the hospital 😞 She is active and healthy, though she is in her 70s

ETA she had Moderna. Her husband also got Covid (and had Moderna) but was not hospitalized. Interesting because he isn’t in as good health as she is. It’s so random. 

Edited by whitestavern
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16 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

This just scares the hell out of me, and is why I am still being super cautious despite being fully vaxxed and having few risk factors. Death is not the only bad outcome, and people who claim that most cases are "mild" and therefore NBD are ignoring the potential long term effects. 

"The severity of the initial disease does not predict who is going to get this," Erausquin told CNN. "In fact, many of them had minimal symptoms -- just a cold or loss of smell." The cognitive issues --including persistent forgetfulness, difficulty sequencing tasks, and forgetting words and phrases -- are similar to those seen in Alzheimer's patients. Erausquin noted that the parts of the brain responsible for sense of smell overlap with those impacted by Alzheimer's disease."

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Hmm.

Defence force being brought in to locked down LGA's to enforce compliance.

Not sure I am a fan of this. Compliance in this LGA is generally related to insecure work/overcrowding/lack of access to the things that help us stay home. 

Really not keen on having the military patrol the suburb next to me, which is jam packed with immigrants and refugees from places where the military is not your friend. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Melissa Louise said:

Hmm.

Defence force being brought in to locked down LGA's to enforce compliance.

Not sure I am a fan of this. Compliance in this LGA is generally related to insecure work/overcrowding/lack of access to the things that help us stay home. 

Really not keen on having the military patrol the suburb next to me, which is jam packed with immigrants and refugees from places where the military is not your friend. 

 

 

They had the military help in Vic last year. Really it isn't like what you imagine.  Instead of 3 police walking around together there were 2 police and an ADF person. So the police could be spread out further. They also helped with traffic control at testing centres and I believe assisted nurses who were doing house checks instead of police. It frees up police and nurses, especially if there are numbers in isolation because of covid exposure 

It wasn't soldiers walking around armed or anything like that. 

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1 hour ago, Melissa in Australia said:

They had the military help in Vic last year. Really it isn't like what you imagine.  Instead of 3 police walking around together there were 2 police and an ADF person. So the police could be spread out further. They also helped with traffic control at testing centres and I believe assisted nurses who were doing house checks instead of police. It frees up police and nurses, especially if there are numbers in isolation because of covid exposure 

It wasn't soldiers walking around armed or anything like that. 

It won't bother me. 

But I know it will bother people will experiences different to mine. 

 

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