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6 hours ago, Laura Corin said:

Variant Delta is spreading across the UK.  It's likely to be mitigated by the vaccines, but not everyone is vaccinated yet.  The opening up is likely to be stalled.

Thanks for the update, Laura. I hope the pace of vaccination can be stepped up and distancing measures maintained so that the impact isn't enormous.

I'm guessing the US may be in a similar situation soon, with Delta spread and vaccinations racing neck and neck.

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33 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

Confident it will.

2nd dose soon. 

I heard the other day UK had closed the gap between first and second dose to eight weeks - they don’t know if it will be as effective but they’re trying to beat the variants.

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6 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I heard the other day UK had closed the gap between first and second dose to eight weeks - they don’t know if it will be as effective but they’re trying to beat the variants.

Yes. My invitation for a second dose came early. I had it at 9 1/2 weeks. It's being reported that hospitalisation with variant Delta is rare after two jabs. I don't have good figures for that yet though.

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I’m seeing suggestion tonight that one of the Victoria cases was transmitted in an outdoor dining setting. I would really like to know more about that. Was it truly open air, or was it one of those enclosed tents some restaurants have put up in the US and called “outdoor”.  Did the people go in to use the bathroom at some point or otherwise share indoor space?

https://amp.abc.net.au/article/100183460

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1 hour ago, KSera said:

I’m seeing suggestion tonight that one of the Victoria cases was transmitted in an outdoor dining setting. I would really like to know more about that. Was it truly open air, or was it one of those enclosed tents some restaurants have put up in the US and called “outdoor”.  Did the people go in to use the bathroom at some point or otherwise share indoor space?

https://amp.abc.net.au/article/100183460

https://www.google.com/maps/uv?pb=!1s0x6ad66f3bd263ca09%3A0x3958d7e444763d36!3m1!7e115!4shttps%3A%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipNBAPzik-qcCD-WoVUL0t6JJKA8Tf5gXQV-jELe%3Dw240-h160-k-no!5sbrighton beach hotel - Google Search!15sCgIgAQ&imagekey=!1e10!2sAF1QipO3BYVnieh3CcnSfSjfiMAjF_x-2_kTWDXLU0ju&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiFr-TasPjwAhWUj-YKHXVaAkUQoiowE3oECGEQAw

a photo of their outdoor dining area

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I've wondered about the infection rates/new positive cases among the unvaccinated. I'm not 100% sure the numbers are truly just unvaccinated (do they ask you when you test if you've been vaccinated or not?) or if they just pull the number of vaccinated out of the total population and just assume they aren't positive?

"

  1. Finally, the unvaccinated group is getting the wrong message. Overall, cases continue to decrease. Which is, obviously, great! But we are largely ignoring the changing denominator. Among the unvaccinated, transmission is high and, in some states, we’re actually seeing worse waves right now than we saw during the holidays. For example, in Maine and Colorado the pandemic is spreading as fast among the unvaccinated as it did during the winter surge."



https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/3-weeks-since-cdcs-guidance-change

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Bambam said:

I've wondered about the infection rates/new positive cases among the unvaccinated. I'm not 100% sure the numbers are truly just unvaccinated (do they ask you when you test if you've been vaccinated or not?) or if they just pull the number of vaccinated out of the total population and just assume they aren't positive?

"

  1. Finally, the unvaccinated group is getting the wrong message. Overall, cases continue to decrease. Which is, obviously, great! But we are largely ignoring the changing denominator. Among the unvaccinated, transmission is high and, in some states, we’re actually seeing worse waves right now than we saw during the holidays. For example, in Maine and Colorado the pandemic is spreading as fast among the unvaccinated as it did during the winter surge."



https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/3-weeks-since-cdcs-guidance-change

I guess I am supposed to be impressed that this person has a PhD, but half the time when I see something from this blog, it’s exaggerated or doesn’t make sense. 
 

Worse waves? Spreading faster than the winter surge? Whatever. Cases are so, so low, so comparing cases in the unvaccinated to a surge is ridiculous. Yes, get vaccinated, especially if you are in an age group or risk group that gives you a significant chance of ending up in the hospital. But this kind of thing is just hyperbole. 
 

Last week, I looked at data in my area (with a low test positivity) and saw that the cases per day come out to less than 1 in 300,000, and that includes all tests, so probably a few of them are vaccinated. So the chances of one of them being positive and out and about in suburbia, and me coming across them, is minuscule. (And being that I am vaccinated, the chance of me getting infected is that much less, which begs the question, why would I think a mask is going to give me significant benefit). So yes, you are taking a risk if you are unvaccinated, but the risk is not what it was during any of the previous surges, it matters not what the denominator is. 
 

 

Edited by Penelope
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Bambam said:

I've wondered about the infection rates/new positive cases among the unvaccinated. I'm not 100% sure the numbers are truly just unvaccinated (do they ask you when you test if you've been vaccinated or not?) or if they just pull the number of vaccinated out of the total population and just assume they aren't positive?

"

  1. Finally, the unvaccinated group is getting the wrong message. Overall, cases continue to decrease. Which is, obviously, great! But we are largely ignoring the changing denominator. Among the unvaccinated, transmission is high and, in some states, we’re actually seeing worse waves right now than we saw during the holidays. For example, in Maine and Colorado the pandemic is spreading as fast among the unvaccinated as it did during the winter surge."



https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/3-weeks-since-cdcs-guidance-change

Our former troop coordinator and her family just had COVID-19. (They missed our end of year Court of Awards because of it) The husband is in the ICU in a coma currently.

I don't know if he's vaccinated or not but She's a nurse and got vaccinated back last January.

Edited by vonfirmath
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10 minutes ago, vonfirmath said:

Our former troop coordinator and her family just had COVID-19. (They missed our end of year Court of Awards because of it) The husband is in the ICU in a coma currently.

I don't know if he's vaccinated or not but She's a nurse and got vaccinated back last January.

Oh no! I’m so sorry! 😞

 

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6 hours ago, Melissa in Australia said:

This is good news. Do you what kind of testing returned the false positives?

23 minutes ago, Penelope said:

Worse waves? Spreading faster than the winter surge? Whatever. Cases are so, so low, so comparing cases in the unvaccinated to a surge is ridiculous. Yes, get vaccinated, especially if you are in an age group or risk group that gives you a significant chance of ending up in the hospital. But this kind of thing is just hyperbole. 
 

Last week, I looked at data in my area (with a low test positivity) and saw that the cases per day come out to less than 1 in 300,000, and that includes all tests, so probably a few of them are vaccinated. So the chances of one of them being positive and out and about in suburbia, and me coming across them, is minuscule. (And being that I am vaccinated, the chance of me getting infected is that much less, which begs the question, why would I think a mask is going to give me significant benefit). So yes, you are taking a risk if you are unvaccinated, but the risk is not what it was during any of the previous surges, it matters not what the denominator is. 
 

I don’t see how it doesn’t matter what the denominator is. She’s not saying there are surges everywhere, and it sounds like your state isn’t one of the ones she’s talking about. There are some states where if you separate case numbers by vaccinated and unvaccinated, if they are separating them accurately, the case rates are indeed as high as during the January surge. @Bambam asks a good question about how they’re doing that. Seems like it would be more accurate to base it on assuming 95% of cases are in unvaccinated, rather than 100%, but I can’t tell if that’s what they’re doing. I think the underlying point still stands either way; in some places still seeing a significant number of cases, the risk to the unvaccinated is much higher than the overall case rate in that state might make it look. 
 

I know someone whose late twenties child has been in the ICU for Covid for the past week,and it’s very scary how it can hit someone that age this hard. People in the US talk like the pandemic is over, and we’re not quite there yet. 

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1 minute ago, KSera said:

This is good news. Do you what kind of testing returned the false positives?

I don’t see how it doesn’t matter what the denominator is. She’s not saying there are surges everywhere, and it sounds like your state isn’t one of the ones she’s talking about. There are some states where if you separate case numbers by vaccinated and unvaccinated, if they are separating them accurately, the case rates are indeed as high as during the January surge. @Bambam asks a good question about how they’re doing that. Seems like it would be more accurate to base it on assuming 95% of cases are in unvaccinated, rather than 100%, but I can’t tell if that’s what they’re doing. I think the underlying point still stands either way; in some places still seeing a significant number of cases, the risk to the unvaccinated is much higher than the overall case rate in that state might make it look. 
 

I know someone whose late twenties child has been in the ICU for Covid for the past week,and it’s very scary how it can hit someone that age this hard. People in the US talk like the pandemic is over, and we’re not quite there yet. 

I’m so sorry about your friend’s child. 😞 People keep acting as though younger people don’t get very sick with Covid — but some do! 

Do you know if this young adult was vaccinated? 

It’s awkward to ask people about vaccination status in situations like this, because you would like to know if any of the vaccinated people you know are ending up in the hospital, yet if the person turns out not to have been vaccinated, you worry that your question might mistakenly come across as shaming/blaming the person’s illness on not having gotten the shot. 

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1 minute ago, Catwoman said:

Do you know if this young adult was vaccinated? 

It’s awkward to ask people about vaccination status in situations like this, because you would like to know if any of the vaccinated people you know are ending up in the hospital, yet if the person turns out not to have been vaccinated, you worry that your question might mistakenly come across as shaming/blaming the person’s illness on not having gotten the shot. 

I don’t know the answer to that, for the reason you say. Certainly not going to ask right now. His parents are vaccinated, but there are reasons I can imagine he might not be. Seems like it might have come up by now if he were: “I can’t believe this happened despite his vaccination” or “He was only a week away from his second shot” or something similar. I’m hoping we start getting more info on which people are having serious breakthrough cases. I’ve seen that most have multiple risk factors, but not many specifics. 

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59 minutes ago, Penelope said:

I guess I am supposed to be impressed that this person has a PhD, but half the time when I see something from this blog, it’s exaggerated or doesn’t make sense. 
 

Worse waves? Spreading faster than the winter surge? Whatever. Cases are so, so low, so comparing cases in the unvaccinated to a surge is ridiculous. Yes, get vaccinated, especially if you are in an age group or risk group that gives you a significant chance of ending up in the hospital. But this kind of thing is just hyperbole. 
 

Last week, I looked at data in my area (with a low test positivity) and saw that the cases per day come out to less than 1 in 300,000, and that includes all tests, so probably a few of them are vaccinated. So the chances of one of them being positive and out and about in suburbia, and me coming across them, is minuscule. (And being that I am vaccinated, the chance of me getting infected is that much less, which begs the question, why would I think a mask is going to give me significant benefit). So yes, you are taking a risk if you are unvaccinated, but the risk is not what it was during any of the previous surges, it matters not what the denominator is. 
 

 

People don't think you, vaccinated, wearing a mask is going to benefit you. Not much, anyway. I want unvaccinated people wearing masks though. 

also, I wish my rates were that low. 

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There is now also the delta strain of Covid in Vic.  It’s not linked to the other cases, so likely a separate quarantine leak.  
 

From ABC

“Genomic sequencing hasn't yet linked the variant to anyone in hotel quarantine or any other known Australian cases.

It is not connected to the rest of the state's outbreak, which is linked to another COVID-19 variant, Kappa, which also emerged in India.

For Melburnians on an emotional rollercoaster, the fear is the new strain could keep them in lockdown for longer.

With the state's case numbers now at 64 and two highly infectious strains in play, here are four factors authorities are focussed on.”

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Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, KSera said:

I don’t see how it doesn’t matter what the denominator is. She’s not saying there are surges everywhere, and it sounds like your state isn’t one of the ones she’s talking about. There are some states where if you separate case numbers by vaccinated and unvaccinated, if they are separating them accurately, the case rates are indeed as high as during the January surge. @Bambam asks a good question about how they’re doing that. Seems like it would be more accurate to base it on assuming 95% of cases are in unvaccinated, rather than 100%, but I can’t tell if that’s what they’re doing. I think the underlying point still stands either way; in some places still seeing a significant number of cases, the risk to the unvaccinated is much higher than the overall case rate in that state might make it look. 

(Not trying to argue for the sake of arguing, but to try to make myself clearer 🙂).

The case rates are much lower everywhere- how much lower is relative, but many times lower everywhere. There are no surges anywhere in the US. Pretending there is a population only of unvaccinated is ignoring the absolute numbers of cases in the interest of making the infection numbers seem worse than they are. 
There isn’t such a thing anymore as an unvaccinated population with little natural immunity; we are all mixed in together.

If someone is unvaccinated and gets Covid, once that occurs, they still have just as high a chance of being hospitalized and dying as they ever did. That part is true.

But their chance of catching it is much, much lower than in January, because there is much less disease around. The more people there are in their communities that have immunity, the more that is true. Natural infection and vaccination protects the unvaccinated, to some extent.
 

Seasonality of infection is also protecting the unvaccinated; adults who aren’t vaccinated would be advised to rethink their choice before fall/winter. And I do think there is a point to there being some individual communities where an unvaccinated person will be at higher risk than others; this winter, we might see “pockets” of unvaccinated have larger outbreaks. 

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29 minutes ago, Penelope said:

But their chance of catching it is much, much lower than in January, because there is much less disease around. The more people there are in their communities that have immunity, the more that is true. Natural infection and vaccination protects the unvaccinated, to some extent.

The way I’m seeing it, if the population in a particular area had a rate of 10 new cases daily per 100,000 in January, and if now their overall rate is much, much lower, but among the unvaccinated population, the rate is still 10 new cases per 100,000, I’m trying to think of a way that that wouldn’t mean that the risk is equivalent for the unvaccinated now as it was then. I’m willing to consider I might be somehow thinking about this wrong, but while I totally see what you’re saying that the overall risk will be lower due to the number of vaccinated people making overall disease rates lower, if the risk is still somehow high enough that unvaccinated people are catching it at the same rate they were in January, then it seems the risk to them is still the same as it was. It seems in that case, that the overall rate in an area would be much higher if not for the vaccinated population (and would likely be a true surge condition in some areas if not for that), but with the vaccinated population providing protection, it has brought the rates down so the rate among the unvaccinated is “only” at the January level. 

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1 hour ago, Penelope said:

Seasonality of infection is also protecting the unvaccinated; adults who aren’t vaccinated would be advised to rethink their choice before fall/winter. And I do think there is a point to there being some individual communities where an unvaccinated person will be at higher risk than others; this winter, we might see “pockets” of unvaccinated have larger outbreaks. 

Just quoting part because my understanding is that these outbreaks might hit sooner (ie. over the summer) in Southern states because that is the time that they are indoors more due to wanting to be in air conditioned areas.  Of course only time will tell. 

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Just now, Jean in Newcastle said:

Just quoting part because my understanding is that these outbreaks might hit sooner (ie. over the summer) in Southern states because that is the time that they are indoors more due to wanting to be in air conditioned areas.  Of course only time will tell. 

Yes, that happened last summer. I was watching for that and it did occur. You'd expect it -- I've lived in Texas, and no one wants to be outside when it's 100+ out. And central AC spreading out the germs is pervasive. 

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Yes, that happened last summer. I was watching for that and it did occur. You'd expect it -- I've lived in Texas, and no one wants to be outside when it's 100+ out. And central AC spreading out the germs is pervasive. 

I'm checking the data now, and it looks like warm places mostly did have spikes in the summer that then went back down in the early fall, but then went WAY up after Thanksgiving and Christmas. So the summer spike was real but less consequential than the holiday spikes. 

The Northeast, on the other hand, had a total respite in the summer. As did most places which are cold in the winter and nice in the summer. 

Edited by Not_a_Number
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56 minutes ago, KSera said:

The way I’m seeing it, if the population in a particular area had a rate of 10 new cases daily per 100,000 in January, and if now their overall rate is much, much lower, but among the unvaccinated population, the rate is still 10 new cases per 100,000, I’m trying to think of a way that that wouldn’t mean that the risk is equivalent for the unvaccinated now as it was then. 

First....my state just finally is coming DOWN to 10 per 100K, lol. 

Second, I think what she is saying is that the unvaccinated are mixed with vaccinated, so their chances of exposure to the virus are lower now, when total case numbers are down, because overall there are less people with the virus to spread it to them. 

So, if they were hanging out only with unvaccinated people, that would be a higher risk, but if we mean like, at the grocery store or work, and a large percentage of people around them are vaccinated, then their chance of encountering the virus to catch it is lower than before. 

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1 hour ago, ktgrok said:

Second, I think what she is saying is that the unvaccinated are mixed with vaccinated, so their chances of exposure to the virus are lower now, when total case numbers are down, because overall there are less people with the virus to spread it to them. 

That makes sense, but I’m still stuck on the fact that if the risk numbers are the same, how is the risk not the same? Those numbers are the current rate, right? It seems to me it’s the mixing with vaccinated that’s bringing the unvaccinated down to as low as it is. Does that make any sense? I can’t tell if I am explaining what’s in my head poorly. Clearly, the risk will be different for different people, depending on their habits and behaviors. Just as it was for everyone before the vaccine. My risk as someone who was home, ordering deliveries, and not having kids going to school, would be different from someone working in crowded conditions. But the statistical risk number at the time would be applied to everyone, and I would just know my own risk was lower than that due to less exposure. Same goes for now. The unvaccinated in an area may have a higher or lower risk than the overall case rate indicates, but the number given is an average, and I can’t see how it doesn’t apply overall if that’s the rate at which people are getting sick. 
 

(And the 10 per 100,000 was just chosen as an easy example number.)

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, KSera said:

The way I’m seeing it, if the population in a particular area had a rate of 10 new cases daily per 100,000 in January, and if now their overall rate is much, much lower, but among the unvaccinated population, the rate is still 10 new cases per 100,000, I’m trying to think of a way that that wouldn’t mean that the risk is equivalent for the unvaccinated now as it was then. I’m willing to consider I might be somehow thinking about this wrong, but while I totally see what you’re saying that the overall risk will be lower due to the number of vaccinated people making overall disease rates lower, if the risk is still somehow high enough that unvaccinated people are catching it at the same rate they were in January, then it seems the risk to them is still the same as it was. It seems in that case, that the overall rate in an area would be much higher if not for the vaccinated population (and would likely be a true surge condition in some areas if not for that), but with the vaccinated population providing protection, it has brought the rates down so the rate among the unvaccinated is “only” at the January level. 

I am saying that the bolded is not correct. Unvaccinated are only catching it at the same “rate” if you shrink the denominator and leave out the rest of the population. The mistake is in doing that and comparing with an assumed 100% non-immune population in January. I see that the epi blog may or may not have originated the idea; it was also in a WashPo piece. I think it’s gross assumptions and sloppy math.

Anyway, in January, the risk wasn’t equal for everyone, because 15-30% or more of people were previously infected and as unlikely to be infected again as those that are vaccinated are now. There was also a small percentage vaccinated already by January (medical workers and nursing homes), and this number increased through the rest of the surge. 
 

It also completely ignores population mixing (unvaccinated don’t only encounter other unvaccinated or previously uninfected people, there is mixing of populations), and varying rates of vaccination and recent infections in different states. 


The more important info, seems to me, anyway, is the number of hospitalizations in vaccinated vs. unvaccinated. A positive test is not going to be as important, since there can be asymptomatic and minimally symptomatic infections after vaccination and previous natural infection. 
 

-The reason I complained in the first place is because it is the same blog that posts bad studies (like the earlier long Covid ones) and other sloppy things without any critique. I have seen a few popular epidemiologists who have a following this past year post links and parrot things without any of the critical insight I’ve seen from certain other experts. In the big scheme of things, though, it doesn’t matter that much. 😉-

2 hours ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

Just quoting part because my understanding is that these outbreaks might hit sooner (ie. over the summer) in Southern states because that is the time that they are indoors more due to wanting to be in air conditioned areas.  Of course only time will tell. 

From what I’m seeing, it is thought that the reason that happened was because it was a naiive population (like the H1N1 flu in its pandemic year). Now that there is a large degree of population immunity, we would expect it to become seasonal. But when they don’t seem to know how much natural immunity there is, I think you’re right that it seems like a question mark in states with lower vaccination rates. 

Edited by Penelope
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1 hour ago, Penelope said:

I am saying that the bolded is not correct. Unvaccinated are only catching it at the same “rate” if you shrink the denominator and leave out the rest of the population.

 

I think I might be seeing what you’re trying to say. I’m going to keep mulling that over. I do agree that seeing the difference between unvaccinated and vaccinated in the hospital numbers is a more straightforward statistic to use. I don’t know why we don’t have that. I do keep hearing the difference is stark, and I see it when new studies are reporting as well. I wish it was in state/county dashboards, though. 

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I was starting to feel really good about our Covid numbers coming down, but then DS came home from one of his activities today and told me one of the other boys said his father died from Covid. It had to have happened within the past two months. The boy is 15 and I believe he's autistic, a nice but very quirky kid who often needs extra support. His mom has been in the hospital long term, possibly with a brain tumor. The leader of the group saw the boy at the hospital and the boy said he'd missed activities because things hadn't been going well. He's now living with some other relatives, but I feel terrible about it.😟

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Just now, mom2scouts said:

I was starting to feel really good about our Covid numbers coming down, but then DS came home from one of his activities today and told me one of the other boys said his father died from Covid. It had to have happened within the past two months. The boy is 15 and I believe he's autistic, a nice but very quirky kid who often needs extra support. His mom has been in the hospital long term, possibly with a brain tumor. The leader of the group saw the boy at the hospital and the boy said he'd missed activities because things hadn't been going well. He's now living with some other relatives, but I feel terrible about it.😟

Oh geez. How scary and depressing 😞 . 

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15 minutes ago, mom2scouts said:

I was starting to feel really good about our Covid numbers coming down, but then DS came home from one of his activities today and told me one of the other boys said his father died from Covid. It had to have happened within the past two months. The boy is 15 and I believe he's autistic, a nice but very quirky kid who often needs extra support. His mom has been in the hospital long term, possibly with a brain tumor. The leader of the group saw the boy at the hospital and the boy said he'd missed activities because things hadn't been going well. He's now living with some other relatives, but I feel terrible about it.😟

Oh, I’m so sorry to hear this.  That poor child.  Heart breaking.

It can hit you hard, can’t it?  Pops the bubble.

I reconnected with a casual friend last week, we had been out of touch for a few months, and found out both her grandmother and her father died of Covid in the last few months.  It really hit me.  Second time in recent weeks I’ve had a friend over who has lost two relatives to this stupid disease.  
 

 

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2 hours ago, mom2scouts said:

I was starting to feel really good about our Covid numbers coming down, but then DS came home from one of his activities today and told me one of the other boys said his father died from Covid. It had to have happened within the past two months. The boy is 15 and I believe he's autistic, a nice but very quirky kid who often needs extra support. His mom has been in the hospital long term, possibly with a brain tumor. The leader of the group saw the boy at the hospital and the boy said he'd missed activities because things hadn't been going well. He's now living with some other relatives, but I feel terrible about it.😟

Oh that poor kid!  

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UK 3rd wave?  Sky were running an article on the independent sage guy saying that UK is at the start of a third wave.  They aren’t a great news source but looking at worldometer it does look like the curve is going up again slightly?  Is this something to worry about or just a blip?  I had hoped the vaccination rates were high enough to be giving some herd immunity now.

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

UK 3rd wave?  Sky were running an article on the independent sage guy saying that UK is at the start of a third wave.  They aren’t a great news source but looking at worldometer it does look like the curve is going up again slightly?  Is this something to worry about or just a blip?  I had hoped the vaccination rates were high enough to be giving some herd immunity now.

I think that infections will rise because of the Delta variant.  However, the vaccination rates for the vulnerable are in the high 90 percents, so it's likely that any uptick will not lead to many serious hospitalisations and deaths.  The weather is good and most buildings are not air-conditioned, so that should help too.  Vaccination of under-thirties is starting.  Professor Tim Spector is good on the trade-offs:

https://youtu.be/3WFckBrljsk

 

Edited by Laura Corin
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Posted (edited)

From NYT--hospitalizations spike in areas with low vaccine uptake, and hospitalization rates are double what they were earlier in the pandemic.

Also the Michigan spring surge was due to the spread of Alpha variant. 

I'm concerned about the increasing impact of Delta spread in states with low vaccination rates.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/09/us/in-the-us-hospitalizations-are-rising-in-areas-with-low-vaccination-rates.html

In Smith County, Tenn., where only 20 percent of people are fully vaccinated, there has been an almost 700 percent increase in hospitalizations for Covid-19 over the past two weeks, according to a New York Times database. In Trousdale, Tenn., where only 23 percent of people have had two vaccine doses, hospitalizations have also surged by 700 percent in the same period.

The increase is not a coincidence, said Dr. Ted Delbridge, executive director of the Maryland Institute for Emergency Medical Services Systems. People who become ill with Covid-19 now are, “in most age groups, twice as likely to end up hospitalized as people who got the virus earlier in the course of the pandemic,” Dr. Delbridge said.

In Maryland, of those between the ages of 50 and 59 who contracted Covid-19 over the winter, about 8 percent were hospitalized, he said. From the end of April through the beginning of June, the hospitalization rate in that group was 19 percent.

Dangerous virus variants are likely to be to blame, Dr. Delbridge said. The variant first found in Britain, now known as Alpha, is deadlier and more contagious than most others and is now dominant in the United States. Last month, Dr. Rochelle P. Walensky, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said the variant, also known as B.1.1.7, made up 72 percent of U.S. cases at the time.

But vaccines have proven to be effective against the Alpha variant. A spring surge that scientists had warned of largely failed to materialize in the United States.

“I think we got lucky, to be honest,” Nathan Grubaugh, an epidemiologist at Yale University, told The New York Times last month. “We’re being rescued by the vaccine.”

In Michigan, one of the few states that saw a surge in cases this spring, Alpha struck younger people who were returning to schools and playing contact sports.

“Because it’s more transmissible, the virus finds cracks in behavior that normally wouldn’t have been as much of a problem,” said Emily Martin, an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan.

At a White House press briefing on Tuesday, Dr. Anthony Fauci, President Biden’s chief Covid adviser, said the Delta variant, which was originally identified in India, was emerging as the dominant variant in Britain.

“We cannot let that happen in the United States,” Dr. Fauci said, adding that the Delta variant now accounted for 6 percent of sequenced cases in the United States.

Edited by Acadie
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1 hour ago, Acadie said:

From NYT--hospitalizations spike in areas with low vaccine uptake, and hospitalization rates are double what they were earlier in the pandemic.

Also the Michigan spring surge was due to the spread of Alpha variant. 

I'm concerned about the increasing impact of Delta spread in states with low vaccination rates.

In Smith County, Tenn., where only 20 percent of people are fully vaccinated, there has been an almost 700 percent increase in hospitalizations for Covid-19 over the past two weeks, according to a New York Times database. In Trousdale, Tenn., where only 23 percent of people have had two vaccine doses, hospitalizations have also surged by 700 percent in the same period.

The increase is not a coincidence, said Dr. Ted Delbridge, executive director of the Maryland Institute for Emergency Medical Services Systems. People who become ill with Covid-19 now are, “in most age groups, twice as likely to end up hospitalized as people who got the virus earlier in the course of the pandemic,” Dr. Delbridge said.

In Maryland, of those between the ages of 50 and 59 who contracted Covid-19 over the winter, about 8 percent were hospitalized, he said. From the end of April through the beginning of June, the hospitalization rate in that group was 19 percent.

Dangerous virus variants are likely to be to blame, Dr. Delbridge said. The variant first found in Britain, now known as Alpha, is deadlier and more contagious than most others and is now dominant in the United States. Last month, Dr. Rochelle P. Walensky, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said the variant, also known as B.1.1.7, made up 72 percent of U.S. cases at the time.

But vaccines have proven to be effective against the Alpha variant. A spring surge that scientists had warned of largely failed to materialize in the United States.

“I think we got lucky, to be honest,” Nathan Grubaugh, an epidemiologist at Yale University, told The New York Times last month. “We’re being rescued by the vaccine.”

In Michigan, one of the few states that saw a surge in cases this spring, Alpha struck younger people who were returning to schools and playing contact sports.

“Because it’s more transmissible, the virus finds cracks in behavior that normally wouldn’t have been as much of a problem,” said Emily Martin, an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan.

At a White House press briefing on Tuesday, Dr. Anthony Fauci, President Biden’s chief Covid adviser, said the Delta variant, which was originally identified in India, was emerging as the dominant variant in Britain.

“We cannot let that happen in the United States,” Dr. Fauci said, adding that the Delta variant now accounted for 6 percent of sequenced cases in the United States.

Can you link directly to this article? I’d like to pass it on to others.

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4 hours ago, Acadie said:

From NYT--hospitalizations spike in areas with low vaccine uptake, and hospitalization rates are double what they were earlier in the pandemic.

Also the Michigan spring surge was due to the spread of Alpha variant. 

I'm concerned about the increasing impact of Delta spread in states with low vaccination rates.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/09/us/in-the-us-hospitalizations-are-rising-in-areas-with-low-vaccination-rates.html

In Smith County, Tenn., where only 20 percent of people are fully vaccinated, there has been an almost 700 percent increase in hospitalizations for Covid-19 over the past two weeks, according to a New York Times database. In Trousdale, Tenn., where only 23 percent of people have had two vaccine doses, hospitalizations have also surged by 700 percent in the same period.

The increase is not a coincidence, said Dr. Ted Delbridge, executive director of the Maryland Institute for Emergency Medical Services Systems. People who become ill with Covid-19 now are, “in most age groups, twice as likely to end up hospitalized as people who got the virus earlier in the course of the pandemic,” Dr. Delbridge said.

In Maryland, of those between the ages of 50 and 59 who contracted Covid-19 over the winter, about 8 percent were hospitalized, he said. From the end of April through the beginning of June, the hospitalization rate in that group was 19 

 This is factual reporting, but it is also looks like they are hunting for stories.

Is there an indication that all of the Covid hospitalizations are due to Covid-related disease? Or is this a case or admitted for something else and testing positive for Covid? They do not say, and we cannot assume anymore.

Trusdale TN has only 11,000 people. In the last 14 days, the case rate has declined just like everywhere else, but the 14 day average is 4 per 100,000, and that is cases, which means this county has much fewer than one positive test per day!  https://covid19.tn.gov/data/dashboards/?County=Trousdale 
There have been 41 total hospitalizations in the past 3 months.

Even assuming Covid hospitalizations are all for Covid disease in that county, when numbers are very small, any increase can be a large percentage. The 700% increase could be, the average over 14 days was 0.5 persons in the hospital, and now it is 3. Or something even lower than that (am I doing the math right?). 

So where is the 700% percent hospitalization increase coming from? Is this county a hospitalization hub for surrounding counties, so that other hospitals are now sending all their cases there? Is the increase really all people actually sick with Covid? Is there something else going on? How about some digging into what the ER doctor said, about the likelihood of a positive test going into the hospital- where is that data coming from, and why would that be (many possibilities).
 

But there is nothing about that, no putting the numbers in context. Instead, they use words like “surged.” 

Edited by Penelope
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Looks like UK cases are rising, and the same in Russia; they've asked people not to go into work for a week. I was hoping there would be a reprieve for your northern hemisphere summer.

Cold start to winter down here, Melbourne still having restrictions due to new cases popping up. So mask-wearing back on, restricting how far people can travel. 

G7 countries have pledged 1 billion vaccine doses for poorer countries. Hope that happens.

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My problem right now is that, even though case numbers are down quite a bit, I don’t necessarily feel safer because people have all but stopped wearing masks in stores, and the vaccination rate isn’t high enough to make me believe that all of those unmasked people have been vaccinated. 

So in that way, I feel my dh may actually be even more at risk now than he was when fewer people were vaccinated, but there were still mask mandates in effect. 😞 

I am happy for the vaccinated people who feel safe enough to go out and do things without masks. I truly am. But unvaccinated people are doing the same thing, and that is very unfair to people for whom the vaccine may be ineffective and for those who are unable to get vaccinated for medical reasons.

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6 hours ago, Catwoman said:

My problem right now is that, even though case numbers are down quite a bit, I don’t necessarily feel safer because people have all but stopped wearing masks in stores, and the vaccination rate isn’t high enough to make me believe that all of those unmasked people have been vaccinated. 

So in that way, I feel my dh may actually be even more at risk now than he was when fewer people were vaccinated, but there were still mask mandates in effect. 😞 

I am happy for the vaccinated people who feel safe enough to go out and do things without masks. I truly am. But unvaccinated people are doing the same thing, and that is very unfair to people for whom the vaccine may be ineffective and for those who are unable to get vaccinated for medical reasons.

Yes, living this also. I have been in a state of mild grieving that I think my life has been permanently shifted by this. I don’t think I will be able to be indoors in large gatherings without masking again. 

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Things seem to be heading in the wrong direction again where I am. However, either vaccinated people are still being really careful (which is not what I’m seeing out and about), or the vaccines really do work.

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8 minutes ago, TCB said:

Things seem to be heading in the wrong direction again where I am. However, either vaccinated people are still being really careful (which is not what I’m seeing out and about), or the vaccines really do work.

I think there’s plenty of evidence they work!

What is the wrong direction?

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