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gardenmom5

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There has been spread from the NSW case.  It’s confirmed delta variant.  The man was involved in driving international flight crews so likely that’s where it came from.  
 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-17/dogs-deployed-in-sa-to-sniff-out-covid-positive-cases/100222318
 

Theres a story here in the Covid sniffer dogs in case anyone needs some cute dog news.

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MIS-C pathogenesis linked to “leaky gut.”

Paper: https://www.jci.org/articles/view/149633

Article (fairly technical): https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210528/Loss-of-gut-epithelial-barrier-responsible-for-COVID-19-related-MIS-C-in-children-suggests-study.aspx

Less technical article https://www.verywellhealth.com/lingering-covid-virus-in-the-gut-may-lead-to-mis-c-in-kids-5187049

 

Quote

A new paper in the Journal of Clinical Investigation reports that this condition is due to damage to the gut, mediated by a decrease in the protein called zonulin, which is responsible for the integrity of the gut epithelial barrier. Reduced zonulin levels are found in several inflammatory and autoimmune conditions

 

Quote

“We show that SARS-CoV-2 antigens are detected in the blood, and most likely are coming from the gut, given the virus’ presence in the stool and markers of gut barrier integrity breakdown,” lead study author Lael Yonker, MD, a pediatric pulmonologist at Massachusetts General Hospital, tells Verywell. “Understanding the mechanism is important because, for the first time, we can target the cause of MIS-C by developing specific treatments or preventive therapeutic strategies.”…….

Co-senior author Alessio Fasano, MD, head of Massachusetts General Hospital’s Division of Pediatric Gastroenterology and Nutrition, suggested using larazotide acetate, a drug he previously developed to treat celiac disease, to treat MIS-C.

"[Larazotide] blocks the breakdown of tight junctions in the gut,” Fasano tells Verywell. “Since we think the viral particles are coming from the gut and leaking into the blood through the gut lining, by preventing this ‘leak’ through the gut with larazotide, we saw a reduction in viral particles in the blood. With fewer viral particles in the blood, the hyperimmune responses that define MIS-C can resolve.”

The team obtained compassionate use permission for larazotide from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and successfully treated a 17-month-old MIS-C patient with the drug.

The researchers are planning to conduct a clinical trial on the effects of larazotide on patients with MIS-C. “We hope to develop an effective treatment, and potentially even a preventive treatment, for MIS-C so that children won’t get so sick from COVID-19 infections,” Yonker says.

That could be a game-changer, Juan C. Salazar, MD, MPH, physician-in-chief and executive vice president of academic affairs at Connecticut Children's Medical Center who has been conducting separate research on MIS-C, tells Verywell.


 

 

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I'm visiting my parents for the first time since pre-pandemic, and my mom handed me a book she just bought that she hadn't read yet:  The Premonition, by Michael Lewis. It's about the pandemic. It starts in like 2004 with the beginning of the first pandemic plan.  

Y'all it is UNCANNY.  The thought process of the experts in the field, the back of the envelope math, everything.....is like reading this thread.  I found myself wondering if one of them was on the Hive or married to someone on the Hive, but that doesn't make sense.  

It's also a really fascinating read.  Highly recommend.  

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22 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Another case in NSW

 

Yep, back to masks for public transport and I am wondering if it'll go to retail (for Sydney) next week. School holidays in a week, too - lot more people out and about. 

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13 hours ago, Terabith said:

I'm visiting my parents for the first time since pre-pandemic, and my mom handed me a book she just bought that she hadn't read yet:  The Premonition, by Michael Lewis. It's about the pandemic. It starts in like 2004 with the beginning of the first pandemic plan.  

Y'all it is UNCANNY.  The thought process of the experts in the field, the back of the envelope math, everything.....is like reading this thread.  I found myself wondering if one of them was on the Hive or married to someone on the Hive, but that doesn't make sense.  

It's also a really fascinating read.  Highly recommend.  

If enough people have read this and would like to discuss, a new thread might be good. I disagree with this assessment of the book. 🙂

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2 more cases for NSW. Actually maybe that was two from yesterday the reporting times are kind of confusing.  Then maybe there’s one more after the cut off time anyway.

I think everyone has a bit of pandemic fatigue here and aren’t really too bothered.  

Edited by Ausmumof3
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On 6/16/2021 at 12:40 PM, Faith-manor said:

Agreed. We have a practically zero mask rate now. My county only has 42% of eligible persons with one shot. This means the majority out and about are not vaccinated.

We gave up our Detroit Symphony Orchestra classical series tickets. I wept so hard. I cried off and on for days. But new variants keep coming, and the majority of the humans I live near are walking petri dishes that don't give a damn. Pack orchestra hall out with a whole bunch of these folks, and it is nothing more than a ticking bomb. Masking won't help because by the end of the concert, the air will be absolutely saturated with covid. We already did not attend concerts from Dec-Feb which is the height of the flu season here because the flu shot never seems to confer immunity to our eldest son and when he gets flu he is down for two or three weeks. So we were way more careful than everyone else during that season anyway. 

I just think my family's life has changed permanently. No more concerts, plays, art shows, unless they are outdoors. My music career is probably over.

I am just glad we got the house on Morrow Mountain. Not only can we enjoy the great outdoors for a much longer season, but we will have the Botanical Gardens in Huntsville and other really nice outdoor events that we don't have here except from Memorial Day to Labor Day, and Wheeler National Wildlife refuge. Maybe I will get lucky and find an outdoor theater group, or even a music group I could accompany during milder temps.

Why?  If you are vaccinated and you can also wear a mask.

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On 6/17/2021 at 9:21 PM, Terabith said:

I'm visiting my parents for the first time since pre-pandemic, and my mom handed me a book she just bought that she hadn't read yet:  The Premonition, by Michael Lewis. It's about the pandemic. It starts in like 2004 with the beginning of the first pandemic plan.  

Y'all it is UNCANNY.  The thought process of the experts in the field, the back of the envelope math, everything.....is like reading this thread.  I found myself wondering if one of them was on the Hive or married to someone on the Hive, but that doesn't make sense.  

It's also a really fascinating read.  Highly recommend.  


I think people are attracted to whatever supports confirmation bias.  Could be this book for you, could be a very different one for someone else
 

 

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From BNO

BREAKING: Brazil's coronavirus death toll reaches 500,000, second-highest in the world

and

Israel reports 0 coronavirus deaths for 6th day in a row, longest streak since pandemic began

And

Global COVID-19 vaccinations:

(Partially) vaccinated*:
▓▓░░░░░░░░░░░░░
16.47% (+0.27)

Fully vaccinated:
▓░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
9.72% (+0.09)

*To reach 70% at current rate:
228 days (-12): Feb. 2, 2022

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And from yesterday

England is one of the first countries to provide detailed information about COVID-19 reinfection:

- 15,893 possible cases
- 478 probable cases
- 53 confirmed cases

This takes the global tally to 149 confirmed cases and 71,931 suspected cases

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17 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

And from yesterday

England is one of the first countries to provide detailed information about COVID-19 reinfection:

- 15,893 possible cases
- 478 probable cases
- 53 confirmed cases

This takes the global tally to 149 confirmed cases and 71,931 suspected cases

Any idea who so few confirmed? Is that because most people didn’t have a test when they had their initial illness, so it’s unknown if that illness was Covid or not? It seems surprising to see confirmed cases so low, when it seems like everyone knows some anecdote of someone who had it more than once. 

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19 minutes ago, KSera said:

Any idea who so few confirmed? Is that because most people didn’t have a test when they had their initial illness, so it’s unknown if that illness was Covid or not? It seems surprising to see confirmed cases so low, when it seems like everyone knows some anecdote of someone who had it more than once. 

There’s no detail in this specific tweet but I remember seeing before they were only counting as confirmed reinfection when genomic sequencing had been done to prove it was a separate infection not a long shedding or reactivating situation.  I will see if I can find a source with a bit more detail.

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38 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

And from yesterday

England is one of the first countries to provide detailed information about COVID-19 reinfection:

- 15,893 possible cases
- 478 probable cases
- 53 confirmed cases

This takes the global tally to 149 confirmed cases and 71,931 suspected cases


how do they determine a “case” both as to original “infection” and “reinfection”? 
 

if they are using PCR tests, amplified by how many cycles? 

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Just now, Ausmumof3 said:

There’s no detail in this specific tweet but I remember seeing before they were only counting as confirmed reinfection when genomic sequencing had been done to prove it was a separate infection not a long shedding or reactivating situation.  I will see if I can find a source with a bit more detail.


this partially answers my question too .

if you find more details please tag me when you post it

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“People with SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes COVID-19, may continue to test positive for several months without being sick or infectious. A reinfection is confirmed when testing shows each virus’ genetic makeup is different to a degree which cannot be explained through in-vivo evolution.”

from the BNO reinfection tracking page 

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1 minute ago, Pen said:


how do they determine a “case” both as to original “infection” and “reinfection”? 
 

if they are using PCR tests, amplified by how many cycles? 

Yep see my next response sorry.  It’s based on genomic testing which different countries are doing to different levels.

overall the reinfection rates seem encouragingly low to me though not non existent so hopefully natural immunity is at least somewhat long lasting.

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https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-national-surveillance-of-possible-covid-19-reinfection-published-by-phe?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications&utm_source=c105372c-e3c3-48f8-91d1-7df9806ccf4c&utm_content=immediately
 

Public health England data on reinfections

“15,893 possible reinfections

A possible reinfection is identified where consecutive positive test results in the same person are at least 90 days apart. These are reinfections which have not been sequenced and so we cannot be completely certain they are not the same original infection.

478 probable reinfections

A probable reinfection is identified when sequencing of the second test sample identifies a variant known to be circulating now and/or that was not circulating at the time of the first test.

53 confirmed reinfections

A confirmed reinfection is where sequences are available from each episode and the sequences are genetically distinct.”

 

Edited by Ausmumof3
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Abc/ - (looks like a new local case for QLD)

More on Queensland's new case

The woman arrived on June 5 and left hotel quarantine yesterday. 

She had been out in the community, travelling in a private shuttle bus to accommodation in Hamilton, north of Brisbane yesterday morning, before going to the DFO shopping centre near Brisbane airport in the afternoon.

Queensland Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young said the risk to others was low.

"It's really important — anyone who was at the DFO at the airport between 4:00pm and 4:30pm yesterday — they need to immediately isolate themselves wherever they are," she said.

 


 

 

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37 minutes ago, KSera said:

This is not good

G7 summit was ‘super spreading’ event for Cornwall as cases rocket 2,450%

Young, unvaccinated hospitality staff are falling ill. Fortunately, so far not many serious cases with it being younger people, but it’s also early, and we know hospitalizations lag behind cases by a couple weeks. 

 

Were the young hospitality staff not eligible for vaccinations?  Because there is absolutely no reason why no one could have predicted this outcome and planned for it by vaccinating them.  And they should have required vaccinations from all of those attending and their support staff etc. 

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2 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

 

Were the young hospitality staff not eligible for vaccinations?  Because there is absolutely no reason why no one could have predicted this outcome and planned for it by vaccinating them.  And they should have required vaccinations from all of those attending and their support staff etc. 

According to the NHS site everyone 18+ is eligible for vaccination. I don't know how long vaccines have been available to younger adults or how easily accessible they are.

I also don't know to what degree vaccine skepticism and refusal, or a perception that covid isn't a real concern for young people, might be impacting vaccination rates.

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-vaccination/coronavirus-vaccine/

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9 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

 

Were the young hospitality staff not eligible for vaccinations?  Because there is absolutely no reason why no one could have predicted this outcome and planned for it by vaccinating them.  And they should have required vaccinations from all of those attending and their support staff etc. 

This being UK, I think they just now got to those younger age groups, so most were not eligible yet. They should have seen this coming. As I saw someone else say, this does not bode well for the Olympics.

 

eta: It truly was "just now" that young people were eligible. Just starting two days ago, on Friday: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/19/covid-vaccine-list-over-18s-rollout-vaccinations-how-book/

Edited by KSera
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13 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

 

Were the young hospitality staff not eligible for vaccinations?  Because there is absolutely no reason why no one could have predicted this outcome and planned for it by vaccinating them.  And they should have required vaccinations from all of those attending and their support staff etc. 

Probably not.  18+ eligibility started just 2 days ago in England.  

Wikipedia isn't the most academic of sources, but this article does have a very nice timeline of which age-groups became eligible when in England.  Only very recently for those in their 20's.  I think that supply remains an issue.

 

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2 hours ago, KSera said:

This is not good

G7 summit was ‘super spreading’ event for Cornwall as cases rocket 2,450%

Young, unvaccinated hospitality staff are falling ill. Fortunately, so far not many serious cases with it being younger people, but it’s also early, and we know hospitalizations lag behind cases by a couple weeks. 

Another scary statistic mentioned in passing in that article is that "the dominant Delta variant is twice as likely to result in younger people requiring medical intervention." That does not bode well for schools and colleges this fall and winter if vax rates among those groups remains low.

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2 hours ago, wathe said:

Probably not.  18+ eligibility started just 2 days ago in England.  

Wikipedia isn't the most academic of sources, but this article does have a very nice timeline of which age-groups became eligible when in England.  Only very recently for those in their 20's.  I think that supply remains an issue.

 

We are not using AZ for younger people, so it's supply of Pfizer and Moderna that has been the issue.

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4 hours ago, Laura Corin said:

We are not using AZ for younger people, so it's supply of Pfizer and Moderna that has been the issue.

Right.  COVID vaccine supply in general.  Which is still an issue in much of the world, unlike in the US.

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11 hours ago, wathe said:

Right.  COVID vaccine supply in general.  Which is still an issue in much of the world, unlike in the US.

It's partly that we are a victim of our own success. The cohorts have been opened one by one and the uptake has been extraordinarily high. The governments have been concentrating on the vulnerable and older population who have responded very well.  This is good news but the increased infectiousness of variant Alpha then Delta have changed the picture.  This is for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly

 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833

 

Screenshot_20210621-074035_Chrome.jpg

Edited by Laura Corin
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potential long term harm/impact of blood clotting issues with AZ was a factor in the changing advice for Aus.
 

Last week, the country's vaccine experts, the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI) recommended the AstraZeneca vaccine only be used for people aged 60 and over, because of the rare risk of thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS).

ATAGI co-chair Christopher Blyth told the committee the risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the AstraZeneca vaccine was one in 2 million, while the risk of death for people who experience the clotting disorder is 3 to 4 per cent, based on Australian data.

But Dr Blyth said a large factor in the ATAGI's decision was the long-term harm that could be experienced by the 60 Australians who have developed TTS.

"It is a remote risk of death compared to other things but I do think actually more needs to be considered than deaths and importantly, more than deaths were considered in our advice last week," he said.

"A number of Australians have been harmed as a result of blood clots and they are particularly occurring in younger individuals, and it is those harms that are in my mind as important as deaths.

"Of those, a number of those individuals will have long-term complications as a result of these events."

 

 

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https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-22/covid19-cctv-footage-worrying-nsw-health-authorities/100231832
 

Delta variant fleeting transmission - cctv footage has shown at least one person appears to have contracted Covid simply from walking past someone in a shopping centre.

Premier Gladys Berejiklian added the encounter was "scarily fleeting".

"Literally people not even physically touching each other but fleetingly coming into the same airspace has seen the virus transfer from one person to another," the Premier said.

"That's how contagious it is."

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5 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

On the other hand Qld have had a local transmission case from the flight attendant and NSW had 3 more on top of the two till 8pm yesterday and another 7 since then 😬

Drat.

For selfish reasons. DD postponed her trip till tomorrow so she could see if case numbers were stable. I think they'll cancel now 🙁

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NSW has a total of 13 cases since 8PM I think. 8 cases are linked to a birthday party.  There are various others and currently 4 unlinked cases which is keeping contact tracers busy.  There is a new list of restrictions

  • Visitors to households will be limited to 5 guests — including children
  • Masks will be compulsory in all indoor non-residential settings, including workplaces, and at organised outdoor events
  • Drinking while standing at indoor venues will not be allowed
  • Singing by audiences at indoor shows or by congregants at indoor places of worship will not be allowed
  • Dancing will not be allowed at indoor hospitality venues or nightclubs however, dancing is allowed at weddings for the bridal party only (no more than 20 people)
  • Dance and gym classes limited to 20 per class (masks must be worn)
  • The one person per four square metre rule will be re-introduced for all indoor and outdoor settings, including weddings and funerals
  • Outdoor seated events will be limited to 50 per cent seated capacity
  • Previous public transport capacity limits, represented by green dots, will be reintroduced
  • If you live or work in the City of Sydney, Waverley, Randwick, Canada Bay, Inner West, Bayside, and Woollahra local government areas, you cannot travel outside metropolitan Sydney for non-essential travel.

 

We’ve also managed to import a case to Wellington NZ which has been out in Wellington with Wellington contemplating further measures I think.

The premier of QLD stated that transmission is taking seconds not minutes of contact with Delta.  Not sure how accurate that is but it sounds worrying.

 

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9 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

I cannot  work out the total for NSW. Some sources are saying 13, some 16and some saying more but some of the numbers will be tomorrow numbers. Talk about making things confusing 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-23/covid-live-updates-nsw-borders-bondi-cluster/100236410
 

according to ABC it was 10 for the 24 hours to 8 pm and then 13 so far since then.

“Ok, so there were 10 new cases on the official count for today, but we heard about seven of them yesterday. Then a further 13 cases were reported after the 8:00pm deadline — they'll be included in tomorrow's official count. “

 

I agree super confusing 

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25 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

I cannot  work out the total for NSW. Some sources are saying 13, some 16and some saying more but some of the numbers will be tomorrow numbers. Talk about making things confusing 

It's driving me crazy the way it's reported. 

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4 minutes ago, maize said:

Are vaccinations happening in Australia?

Yeah but slowly.  We didn’t sign up for Pfizer till November because we were relying on AZ and now that’s only recommended for over 60s (and has a three month waiting period).  There’s been a lot in the 50-60 age group holding out before they made them eligible for Pfizer.

Im eligible and booked in for mid- July, though still keeping an eye on the data on side effects etc to be honest.  Family who are in various priority groups have had the first dose.

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7 minutes ago, maize said:

Are vaccinations happening in Australia?

Exceedingly slowly. 

I think it's 3.8% of the population fully vaccinated. 

We don't have enough Pfizer - under 60's can no longer have AZ. 

I got in early and am fully vaccinated (AZ) for winter. 

We might get Novovax later in the year. 

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2 minutes ago, maize said:

Are vaccinations happening in Australia?

Yes, but not in a particularly methodical way.

My local doctors can't do vaccinations for under 60's, so my closest vaccination centre is 40mins away. Being on a budget, I need to combine errands. The nurse there has been posting on the neighbouring towns FB groups encouraging us to walk in, even though the official line is that only second doses are being given and we're meant to book through a statewide phone number. Yesterday, when I was in town for the auto electrician, they were booked up for the first time in a fortnight, so I'll have to try again next week when I'm there for the dentist. 

I don't know what it's like anywhere else, but it's damned inconvenient here.

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1 minute ago, Rosie_0801 said:

Yes, but not in a particularly methodical way.

My local doctors can't do vaccinations for under 60's, so my closest vaccination centre is 40mins away. Being on a budget, I need to combine errands. The nurse there has been posting on the neighbouring towns FB groups encouraging us to walk in, even though the official line is that only second doses are being given and we're meant to book through a statewide phone number. Yesterday, when I was in town for the auto electrician, they were booked up for the first time in a fortnight, so I'll have to try again next week when I'm there for the dentist. 

I don't know what it's like anywhere else, but it's damned inconvenient here.

Here it’s an online booking system.  Everyone I’ve spoken to has said it’s pretty streamline once you’re in.  Because I’m eligible under the regional rules I have to go to a regional hospital even though we are actually closer to one in the city.  But I’m not complaining I thought I’d be waiting a lot longer.  And I still have some reservations although I’ll probably go ahead.

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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

The premier of QLD stated that transmission is taking seconds not minutes of contact with Delta.  Not sure how accurate that is but it sounds worrying.

I keep reading that they have cc video of a couple of the fleeting contact transmission events, but I haven’t seen the video itself. What I wanted to know is weather the individuals involved or masked. Anyone know?

 

what size gathering is being allowed indoors now? I saw 50 before, but the new guidelines posted in this thread don’t address size of indoor groups.

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1 minute ago, KSera said:

I keep reading that they have cc video of a couple of the fleeting contact transmission events, but I haven’t seen the video itself. What I wanted to know is weather the individuals involved or masked. Anyone know?

 

what size gathering is being allowed indoors now? I saw 50 before, but the new guidelines posted in this thread don’t address size of indoor groups.

1 per 4 square metres as from today.

5 guests in homes.

I assume unmasked - we've been living very normal lives in Sydney, other than a few blips. Hardly anyone has been masking in shops this year. B/c normally we have zero community transmission.

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Yikes, just saw this about one of the Australia transmissions:

‘The driver’s infection is deemed to have been “highly infectious”, as he also passed on the virus to a woman who had been sitting outside at a cafe in Vaucluse.

“This indicates that the initial case was highly infectious, as transmission must have occurred through fleeting exposure, noting that the person who caught the infection at the cafe was seated outside and there was no known on-site contact with the initial case,” Chief Health Officer Dr Kerry Chant said.’

If it’s true that they never crossed paths in an indoor space, that would be super concerning to me. We are treating outdoors as safe right now (as long as not too many people, or too close). 

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