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gardenmom5

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6 hours ago, Catwoman said:

My problem right now is that, even though case numbers are down quite a bit, I don’t necessarily feel safer because people have all but stopped wearing masks in stores, and the vaccination rate isn’t high enough to make me believe that all of those unmasked people have been vaccinated. 

So in that way, I feel my dh may actually be even more at risk now than he was when fewer people were vaccinated, but there were still mask mandates in effect. 😞 

I am happy for the vaccinated people who feel safe enough to go out and do things without masks. I truly am. But unvaccinated people are doing the same thing, and that is very unfair to people for whom the vaccine may be ineffective and for those who are unable to get vaccinated for medical reasons.

Yes, living this also. I have been in a state of mild grieving that I think my life has been permanently shifted by this. I don’t think I will be able to be indoors in large gatherings without masking again. 

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Things seem to be heading in the wrong direction again where I am. However, either vaccinated people are still being really careful (which is not what I’m seeing out and about), or the vaccines really do work.

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8 minutes ago, TCB said:

Things seem to be heading in the wrong direction again where I am. However, either vaccinated people are still being really careful (which is not what I’m seeing out and about), or the vaccines really do work.

I think there’s plenty of evidence they work!

What is the wrong direction?

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35 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I think there’s plenty of evidence they work!

What is the wrong direction?

Yes plenty of evidence but really cool to see it in action.

Wrong direction as in more active cases and more hospitalization. The middle of May we were hovering around 4 active cases, but up to 50 by the end of last week. This is a fairly small rural county with many deniers and many not vaccinating, although our vaccination rate is better than a number of nearby counties.

 

ETA - a lot of people around here also don’t get tested so it’s difficult to know the true picture.

Edited by TCB
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10 hours ago, bookbard said:

Interesting article suggesting falling case numbers in the USA may be due to immunity as so many people have had covid - but when that wanes (with new variants and time), there could be another dangerous upsurge.

Covid cases fall across US but experts warn of dangers of vaccine hesitancy | Coronavirus | The Guardian

Clickbait (but it got me, LOL)

Just another article about something bad that might happen some time in the future. Nothing substantial. No evidence that natural immunity isn’t long lasting, or that vaccinations will be better than natural immunity. 

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10 hours ago, prairiewindmomma said:

Yes, living this also. I have been in a state of mild grieving that I think my life has been permanently shifted by this. I don’t think I will be able to be indoors in large gatherings without masking again. 

We have been feeling the same way at our house. We had so many plans that may never happen because of this. I keep hoping and praying that people will keep getting vaccinated, but so many people are resistant that I doubt we will reach herd immunity. My biggest hope is that the Tamiflu-like drug that is currently in human trials will prove safe and effective, and that it will be approved within the next several months. 

If a drug was proven to work, and it prevented serious cases of Covid when taken early enough, that would be even better for our family than the vaccine, as long as it was easily accessible and was able to be taken prophylactically by all family members when there was a known exposure. It could be such a game changer.

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41 minutes ago, Penelope said:

Clickbait (but it got me, LOL)

Just another article about something bad that might happen some time in the future. Nothing substantial. No evidence that natural immunity isn’t long lasting, or that vaccinations will be better than natural immunity. 

Well, you don't need to think vaccinations are better than natural immunity -- most places haven't had anywhere near 60% of people infected, so the numbers simply favor vaccines.

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10 hours ago, prairiewindmomma said:

Yes, living this also. I have been in a state of mild grieving that I think my life has been permanently shifted by this. I don’t think I will be able to be indoors in large gatherings without masking again. 

I think I'll be able to do this when the numbers are really low like they are here right now. But you're right that I"m not foreseeing feeling carefree about it anytime soon 😕 . 

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26 minutes ago, Catwoman said:

We have been feeling the same way at our house. We had so many plans that may never happen because of this. I keep hoping and praying that people will keep getting vaccinated, but so many people are resistant that I doubt we will reach herd immunity. My biggest hope is that the Tamiflu-like drug that is currently in human trials will prove safe and effective, and that it will be approved within the next several months. 

If a drug was proven to work, and it prevented serious cases of Covid when taken early enough, that would be even better for our family than the vaccine, as long as it was easily accessible and was able to be taken prophylactically by all family members when there was a known exposure. It could be such a game changer.

The monoclonal antibody therapies seem very effective and safe. There are some that are better with different variants, but they are definitely a safety net for any high risk person who might get sick, so long as they are given early on. 
It is sad and frustrating to see really sick people in this country when we have the proven therapies of vaccinations and these monoclonal antibodies. 

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Has anyone seen anything specifically regarding fully vaccinated + delta variant? I have seen reports we should have good coverage but I am also seeing an increase in fully vaccinated people reported to be ill with delta variant (though mild illness). Would love to see med journal or other not-newspaper reporting.

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15 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

Has anyone seen anything specifically regarding fully vaccinated + delta variant? I have seen reports we should have good coverage but I am also seeing an increase in fully vaccinated people reported to be ill with delta variant (though mild illness). Would love to see med journal or other not-newspaper reporting.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-b-1-617-2-variant-after-2-doses

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant

Edited by Laura Corin
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Some interesting research just published in Science that may help explain why older people are hit so much harder by covid (beyond just having weaker immune systems in general). The linked article looked at the effect of senolytics like quercetin and fisetin (which you can buy OTC from Amazon) on old mice infected with a variety of pathogens, including a β-coronavirus in the same family as SARS 1 & 2. The result was a significant reduction in mortality: while 100% of older, untreated mice died, 88% of male mice and 22% of female mice treated with fisetin survived long term, as did 50% of female mice treated with quercetin + another senolytic. (The study says that the sex difference in mortality with ficetin was not fully explained, but may relate to the fact that the ages of the male and female mice were not the same). 

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/06/07/science.abe4832?utm

Fisetin and quercetin are plant flavonols which seem to be generating a lot of interest in the fight against many age-related illnesses. Here are a few general survey articles on them for anyone interested:

Article on senolytic drugs in general:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7405395/

Fisetin:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5527824/

Quercetin:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4808895/

 

(ETA: Researchers found that just a few doses, spaced out, worked very well — unlike Vitamin D, this is not something that needs to be taken long term in order to fight off disease, it really can be used to treat illness, not just prevent it.)

Edited by Corraleno
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Abc news (Aus)
 

Analysis suggests COVID-19 was in US by Christmas 2019

A new analysis of blood samples from 24,000 Americans taken early last year is the latest and largest study to suggest that the new coronavirus popped up in the US in December 2019 — weeks before cases were first recognised by health officials.

The analysis is not definitive, and some experts remain sceptical, but federal health officials are increasingly accepting a timeline in which small numbers of COVID-19 infections may have occurred in the US before the world ever became aware of a dangerous new virus erupting in China.

“The studies are pretty consistent,” said Natalie Thornburg of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“There was probably very rare and sporadic cases here earlier than we were aware of. But it was not widespread and didn’t become widespread until late February."

Such results underscore the need for countries to work together and identify newly emerging viruses as quickly and collaboratively as possible, she added.

 

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On 6/14/2021 at 2:09 AM, prairiewindmomma said:

Yes, living this also. I have been in a state of mild grieving that I think my life has been permanently shifted by this. I don’t think I will be able to be indoors in large gatherings without masking again. 

Agreed. We have a practically zero mask rate now. My county only has 42% of eligible persons with one shot. This means the majority out and about are not vaccinated.

We gave up our Detroit Symphony Orchestra classical series tickets. I wept so hard. I cried off and on for days. But new variants keep coming, and the majority of the humans I live near are walking petri dishes that don't give a damn. Pack orchestra hall out with a whole bunch of these folks, and it is nothing more than a ticking bomb. Masking won't help because by the end of the concert, the air will be absolutely saturated with covid. We already did not attend concerts from Dec-Feb which is the height of the flu season here because the flu shot never seems to confer immunity to our eldest son and when he gets flu he is down for two or three weeks. So we were way more careful than everyone else during that season anyway. 

I just think my family's life has changed permanently. No more concerts, plays, art shows, unless they are outdoors. My music career is probably over.

I am just glad we got the house on Morrow Mountain. Not only can we enjoy the great outdoors for a much longer season, but we will have the Botanical Gardens in Huntsville and other really nice outdoor events that we don't have here except from Memorial Day to Labor Day, and Wheeler National Wildlife refuge. Maybe I will get lucky and find an outdoor theater group, or even a music group I could accompany during milder temps.

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There has been spread from the NSW case.  It’s confirmed delta variant.  The man was involved in driving international flight crews so likely that’s where it came from.  
 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-17/dogs-deployed-in-sa-to-sniff-out-covid-positive-cases/100222318
 

Theres a story here in the Covid sniffer dogs in case anyone needs some cute dog news.

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MIS-C pathogenesis linked to “leaky gut.”

Paper: https://www.jci.org/articles/view/149633

Article (fairly technical): https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210528/Loss-of-gut-epithelial-barrier-responsible-for-COVID-19-related-MIS-C-in-children-suggests-study.aspx

Less technical article https://www.verywellhealth.com/lingering-covid-virus-in-the-gut-may-lead-to-mis-c-in-kids-5187049

 

Quote

A new paper in the Journal of Clinical Investigation reports that this condition is due to damage to the gut, mediated by a decrease in the protein called zonulin, which is responsible for the integrity of the gut epithelial barrier. Reduced zonulin levels are found in several inflammatory and autoimmune conditions

 

Quote

“We show that SARS-CoV-2 antigens are detected in the blood, and most likely are coming from the gut, given the virus’ presence in the stool and markers of gut barrier integrity breakdown,” lead study author Lael Yonker, MD, a pediatric pulmonologist at Massachusetts General Hospital, tells Verywell. “Understanding the mechanism is important because, for the first time, we can target the cause of MIS-C by developing specific treatments or preventive therapeutic strategies.”…….

Co-senior author Alessio Fasano, MD, head of Massachusetts General Hospital’s Division of Pediatric Gastroenterology and Nutrition, suggested using larazotide acetate, a drug he previously developed to treat celiac disease, to treat MIS-C.

"[Larazotide] blocks the breakdown of tight junctions in the gut,” Fasano tells Verywell. “Since we think the viral particles are coming from the gut and leaking into the blood through the gut lining, by preventing this ‘leak’ through the gut with larazotide, we saw a reduction in viral particles in the blood. With fewer viral particles in the blood, the hyperimmune responses that define MIS-C can resolve.”

The team obtained compassionate use permission for larazotide from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and successfully treated a 17-month-old MIS-C patient with the drug.

The researchers are planning to conduct a clinical trial on the effects of larazotide on patients with MIS-C. “We hope to develop an effective treatment, and potentially even a preventive treatment, for MIS-C so that children won’t get so sick from COVID-19 infections,” Yonker says.

That could be a game-changer, Juan C. Salazar, MD, MPH, physician-in-chief and executive vice president of academic affairs at Connecticut Children's Medical Center who has been conducting separate research on MIS-C, tells Verywell.


 

 

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I'm visiting my parents for the first time since pre-pandemic, and my mom handed me a book she just bought that she hadn't read yet:  The Premonition, by Michael Lewis. It's about the pandemic. It starts in like 2004 with the beginning of the first pandemic plan.  

Y'all it is UNCANNY.  The thought process of the experts in the field, the back of the envelope math, everything.....is like reading this thread.  I found myself wondering if one of them was on the Hive or married to someone on the Hive, but that doesn't make sense.  

It's also a really fascinating read.  Highly recommend.  

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13 hours ago, Terabith said:

I'm visiting my parents for the first time since pre-pandemic, and my mom handed me a book she just bought that she hadn't read yet:  The Premonition, by Michael Lewis. It's about the pandemic. It starts in like 2004 with the beginning of the first pandemic plan.  

Y'all it is UNCANNY.  The thought process of the experts in the field, the back of the envelope math, everything.....is like reading this thread.  I found myself wondering if one of them was on the Hive or married to someone on the Hive, but that doesn't make sense.  

It's also a really fascinating read.  Highly recommend.  

If enough people have read this and would like to discuss, a new thread might be good. I disagree with this assessment of the book. 🙂

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2 more cases for NSW. Actually maybe that was two from yesterday the reporting times are kind of confusing.  Then maybe there’s one more after the cut off time anyway.

I think everyone has a bit of pandemic fatigue here and aren’t really too bothered.  

Edited by Ausmumof3
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On 6/16/2021 at 12:40 PM, Faith-manor said:

Agreed. We have a practically zero mask rate now. My county only has 42% of eligible persons with one shot. This means the majority out and about are not vaccinated.

We gave up our Detroit Symphony Orchestra classical series tickets. I wept so hard. I cried off and on for days. But new variants keep coming, and the majority of the humans I live near are walking petri dishes that don't give a damn. Pack orchestra hall out with a whole bunch of these folks, and it is nothing more than a ticking bomb. Masking won't help because by the end of the concert, the air will be absolutely saturated with covid. We already did not attend concerts from Dec-Feb which is the height of the flu season here because the flu shot never seems to confer immunity to our eldest son and when he gets flu he is down for two or three weeks. So we were way more careful than everyone else during that season anyway. 

I just think my family's life has changed permanently. No more concerts, plays, art shows, unless they are outdoors. My music career is probably over.

I am just glad we got the house on Morrow Mountain. Not only can we enjoy the great outdoors for a much longer season, but we will have the Botanical Gardens in Huntsville and other really nice outdoor events that we don't have here except from Memorial Day to Labor Day, and Wheeler National Wildlife refuge. Maybe I will get lucky and find an outdoor theater group, or even a music group I could accompany during milder temps.

Why?  If you are vaccinated and you can also wear a mask.

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On 6/17/2021 at 9:21 PM, Terabith said:

I'm visiting my parents for the first time since pre-pandemic, and my mom handed me a book she just bought that she hadn't read yet:  The Premonition, by Michael Lewis. It's about the pandemic. It starts in like 2004 with the beginning of the first pandemic plan.  

Y'all it is UNCANNY.  The thought process of the experts in the field, the back of the envelope math, everything.....is like reading this thread.  I found myself wondering if one of them was on the Hive or married to someone on the Hive, but that doesn't make sense.  

It's also a really fascinating read.  Highly recommend.  


I think people are attracted to whatever supports confirmation bias.  Could be this book for you, could be a very different one for someone else
 

 

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From BNO

BREAKING: Brazil's coronavirus death toll reaches 500,000, second-highest in the world

and

Israel reports 0 coronavirus deaths for 6th day in a row, longest streak since pandemic began

And

Global COVID-19 vaccinations:

(Partially) vaccinated*:
▓▓░░░░░░░░░░░░░
16.47% (+0.27)

Fully vaccinated:
▓░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
9.72% (+0.09)

*To reach 70% at current rate:
228 days (-12): Feb. 2, 2022

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And from yesterday

England is one of the first countries to provide detailed information about COVID-19 reinfection:

- 15,893 possible cases
- 478 probable cases
- 53 confirmed cases

This takes the global tally to 149 confirmed cases and 71,931 suspected cases

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17 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

And from yesterday

England is one of the first countries to provide detailed information about COVID-19 reinfection:

- 15,893 possible cases
- 478 probable cases
- 53 confirmed cases

This takes the global tally to 149 confirmed cases and 71,931 suspected cases

Any idea who so few confirmed? Is that because most people didn’t have a test when they had their initial illness, so it’s unknown if that illness was Covid or not? It seems surprising to see confirmed cases so low, when it seems like everyone knows some anecdote of someone who had it more than once. 

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19 minutes ago, KSera said:

Any idea who so few confirmed? Is that because most people didn’t have a test when they had their initial illness, so it’s unknown if that illness was Covid or not? It seems surprising to see confirmed cases so low, when it seems like everyone knows some anecdote of someone who had it more than once. 

There’s no detail in this specific tweet but I remember seeing before they were only counting as confirmed reinfection when genomic sequencing had been done to prove it was a separate infection not a long shedding or reactivating situation.  I will see if I can find a source with a bit more detail.

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38 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

And from yesterday

England is one of the first countries to provide detailed information about COVID-19 reinfection:

- 15,893 possible cases
- 478 probable cases
- 53 confirmed cases

This takes the global tally to 149 confirmed cases and 71,931 suspected cases


how do they determine a “case” both as to original “infection” and “reinfection”? 
 

if they are using PCR tests, amplified by how many cycles? 

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Just now, Ausmumof3 said:

There’s no detail in this specific tweet but I remember seeing before they were only counting as confirmed reinfection when genomic sequencing had been done to prove it was a separate infection not a long shedding or reactivating situation.  I will see if I can find a source with a bit more detail.


this partially answers my question too .

if you find more details please tag me when you post it

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“People with SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes COVID-19, may continue to test positive for several months without being sick or infectious. A reinfection is confirmed when testing shows each virus’ genetic makeup is different to a degree which cannot be explained through in-vivo evolution.”

from the BNO reinfection tracking page 

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1 minute ago, Pen said:


how do they determine a “case” both as to original “infection” and “reinfection”? 
 

if they are using PCR tests, amplified by how many cycles? 

Yep see my next response sorry.  It’s based on genomic testing which different countries are doing to different levels.

overall the reinfection rates seem encouragingly low to me though not non existent so hopefully natural immunity is at least somewhat long lasting.

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https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-national-surveillance-of-possible-covid-19-reinfection-published-by-phe?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications&utm_source=c105372c-e3c3-48f8-91d1-7df9806ccf4c&utm_content=immediately
 

Public health England data on reinfections

“15,893 possible reinfections

A possible reinfection is identified where consecutive positive test results in the same person are at least 90 days apart. These are reinfections which have not been sequenced and so we cannot be completely certain they are not the same original infection.

478 probable reinfections

A probable reinfection is identified when sequencing of the second test sample identifies a variant known to be circulating now and/or that was not circulating at the time of the first test.

53 confirmed reinfections

A confirmed reinfection is where sequences are available from each episode and the sequences are genetically distinct.”

 

Edited by Ausmumof3
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Abc/ - (looks like a new local case for QLD)

More on Queensland's new case

The woman arrived on June 5 and left hotel quarantine yesterday. 

She had been out in the community, travelling in a private shuttle bus to accommodation in Hamilton, north of Brisbane yesterday morning, before going to the DFO shopping centre near Brisbane airport in the afternoon.

Queensland Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young said the risk to others was low.

"It's really important — anyone who was at the DFO at the airport between 4:00pm and 4:30pm yesterday — they need to immediately isolate themselves wherever they are," she said.

 


 

 

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37 minutes ago, KSera said:

This is not good

G7 summit was ‘super spreading’ event for Cornwall as cases rocket 2,450%

Young, unvaccinated hospitality staff are falling ill. Fortunately, so far not many serious cases with it being younger people, but it’s also early, and we know hospitalizations lag behind cases by a couple weeks. 

 

Were the young hospitality staff not eligible for vaccinations?  Because there is absolutely no reason why no one could have predicted this outcome and planned for it by vaccinating them.  And they should have required vaccinations from all of those attending and their support staff etc. 

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2 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

 

Were the young hospitality staff not eligible for vaccinations?  Because there is absolutely no reason why no one could have predicted this outcome and planned for it by vaccinating them.  And they should have required vaccinations from all of those attending and their support staff etc. 

According to the NHS site everyone 18+ is eligible for vaccination. I don't know how long vaccines have been available to younger adults or how easily accessible they are.

I also don't know to what degree vaccine skepticism and refusal, or a perception that covid isn't a real concern for young people, might be impacting vaccination rates.

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-vaccination/coronavirus-vaccine/

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9 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

 

Were the young hospitality staff not eligible for vaccinations?  Because there is absolutely no reason why no one could have predicted this outcome and planned for it by vaccinating them.  And they should have required vaccinations from all of those attending and their support staff etc. 

This being UK, I think they just now got to those younger age groups, so most were not eligible yet. They should have seen this coming. As I saw someone else say, this does not bode well for the Olympics.

 

eta: It truly was "just now" that young people were eligible. Just starting two days ago, on Friday: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/19/covid-vaccine-list-over-18s-rollout-vaccinations-how-book/

Edited by KSera
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13 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

 

Were the young hospitality staff not eligible for vaccinations?  Because there is absolutely no reason why no one could have predicted this outcome and planned for it by vaccinating them.  And they should have required vaccinations from all of those attending and their support staff etc. 

Probably not.  18+ eligibility started just 2 days ago in England.  

Wikipedia isn't the most academic of sources, but this article does have a very nice timeline of which age-groups became eligible when in England.  Only very recently for those in their 20's.  I think that supply remains an issue.

 

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2 hours ago, KSera said:

This is not good

G7 summit was ‘super spreading’ event for Cornwall as cases rocket 2,450%

Young, unvaccinated hospitality staff are falling ill. Fortunately, so far not many serious cases with it being younger people, but it’s also early, and we know hospitalizations lag behind cases by a couple weeks. 

Another scary statistic mentioned in passing in that article is that "the dominant Delta variant is twice as likely to result in younger people requiring medical intervention." That does not bode well for schools and colleges this fall and winter if vax rates among those groups remains low.

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2 hours ago, wathe said:

Probably not.  18+ eligibility started just 2 days ago in England.  

Wikipedia isn't the most academic of sources, but this article does have a very nice timeline of which age-groups became eligible when in England.  Only very recently for those in their 20's.  I think that supply remains an issue.

 

We are not using AZ for younger people, so it's supply of Pfizer and Moderna that has been the issue.

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4 hours ago, Laura Corin said:

We are not using AZ for younger people, so it's supply of Pfizer and Moderna that has been the issue.

Right.  COVID vaccine supply in general.  Which is still an issue in much of the world, unlike in the US.

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