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2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSKBN2AP1JR
 

Long Covid May effect as many as one in ten.  I know one of the forum members here was suffering from this (busymumof6 ?  Something with mum and a number.  I wonder how they are doing now.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2AO2UA?__twitter_impression=true
 

Pfizer vaccine is 94pc effective in a real world setting according to the study from Israel.   
 

“The study examined about 600,000 vaccinated people against the same sized control group of unvaccinated people. Researchers at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard Medical School and Boston Children's Hospital also collaborated.

"This is more great news, confirming that the vaccine is around 90% effective at preventing documented infection of any degree of severity from 7 days after the second dose," said Peter English, a British government consultant in communicable disease control.”

You probably mean me. I was the absolute worst in early January. I made some improvement in mid January I think (should have written stuff down) but have stayed at that level since then. Intense brain fog, headaches, fatigue, body aches.  Those are the most bothersome ongoing symptoms. I am napping daily and trying super hard to do a good job with school with my kids but it is shaky at best. They know we won't be taking the summer off and we had to drop something that was a major commitment.  I have a lot of sad kids over that but I am just not myself. I had my positive covid test on November 9th. 

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DS got home 3 hours ago!  ❤️❤️

Update-  my youngest is not only short of breath, coughing, dizzy, nausaues, and with headache-  she is also confused.  I called our doctor and talked with him and she is going to be going to the ER.

Thought I'd post a pic of my dd, getting ready to spend another day in a coronavirus triage tent!  

47 minutes ago, busymama7 said:

You probably mean me. I was the absolute worst in early January. I made some improvement in mid January I think (should have written stuff down) but have stayed at that level since then. Intense brain fog, headaches, fatigue, body aches.  Those are the most bothersome ongoing symptoms. I am napping daily and trying super hard to do a good job with school with my kids but it is shaky at best. They know we won't be taking the summer off and we had to drop something that was a major commitment.  I have a lot of sad kids over that but I am just not myself. I had my positive covid test on November 9th. 

Yes, it was, I’m sorry I forgot your username.  Thanks for updating us.  I’m sorry you are still having such a hard time with it. 😞 

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5 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Yes, it was, I’m sorry I forgot your username.  Thanks for updating us.  I’m sorry you are still having such a hard time with it. 😞 

Oh it's fine. I appreciate that you remembered my story at all.  It feels very lonely especially because I do know quite a few people who have had it and are fine.

 

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9 hours ago, busymama7 said:

Oh it's fine. I appreciate that you remembered my story at all.  It feels very lonely especially because I do know quite a few people who have had it and are fine.

 

Your story has stuck with me, too.  We have family friends who had it last year (whole family), and the mom was struggling for soooo long.  Just months and months.  I think of her when reading your posts, and hope that you just get better and better.  
 

 

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Someone told me that the [highly rated] hospital that recently took her blood (for non-Covid-related tests) refused to also test for Covid antibodies.  They told her the antibodies tests are too unreliable, so they won't do them.

If I wanted to be reasonably sure whether or not I have Covid antibodies, what should I do?  Who will provide accurate tests?

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10 hours ago, busymama7 said:

Oh it's fine. I appreciate that you remembered my story at all.  It feels very lonely especially because I do know quite a few people who have had it and are fine.

 

Oh just sending you lots of hugs and prayers that you get better little by little.  Have you seen a doctor that is treating long haul Covid?  Is there anything that is recommended for long haul Covid?  

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10 minutes ago, SKL said:

Someone told me that the [highly rated] hospital that recently took her blood (for non-Covid-related tests) refused to also test for Covid antibodies.  They told her the antibodies tests are too unreliable, so they won't do them.

If I wanted to be reasonably sure whether or not I have Covid antibodies, what should I do?  Who will provide accurate tests?

Covid antibodies only show up in a certain time frame, as far as I know.  So if you had a known exposure or illness within that time frame then an antibody test would help clarify things.  But a negative antibody test won't tell you if you were exposed or ill outside of that window.

CDC says that an antibody test won't detect recent illness (in the last 3 weeks).  As far as how long the body shows immunity, I couldn't find any reputable site that would give a definitive answer, but I was told around four months.  So it might not show infection that happened before then. 

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1 hour ago, mommyoffive said:

Oh just sending you lots of hugs and prayers that you get better little by little.  Have you seen a doctor that is treating long haul Covid?  Is there anything that is recommended for long haul Covid?  

Thank you.  No I haven't.   I should but Im in the midst of insurance/doctor change and I just haven't mustered the energy. I also am doubtful that a PCP is going to know much about what to do because no one really does.  No long covid clinic here.    In the support groups no one is really getting answers even from the clinics. Just some treatment of symptoms

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42 minutes ago, busymama7 said:

Thank you.  No I haven't.   I should but Im in the midst of insurance/doctor change and I just haven't mustered the energy. I also am doubtful that a PCP is going to know much about what to do because no one really does.  No long covid clinic here.    In the support groups no one is really getting answers even from the clinics. Just some treatment of symptoms

I'm going to try to put a tweet in here, where Dr. Griffin notes that some of the long haulers seem to be feeling improved after vaccination in response to other doctors noticing this as well...anecdotal, but maybe hopeful? Then they speculate about why this might happen. 

 

Edited by sbgrace
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CDC estimates the b117 variant is present in 10% of covid cases in the US at this time. Up from estimated 1-4% a couple of weeks ago. The uptick in cases could be the start of seeing the effects of this.

02/26/21: Press Briefing By White House COVID-19 Response Team and Public Health Officials - YouTube

 

 

CDC director warns decline in Covid cases may have stalled as variants spread (cnbc.com)

Edited by mommyoffive
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The update from the FDA vaccine meeting also mentioned the variants.  From one of the epidemiologist I follow (the bolding is mine)1731851062_ScreenShot2021-02-27at10_47_11PM.png.e4b66fe6ef5d29d7f1767ed6c0399738.png

Update on Variants in the United States
An epidemiologist at the CDC (Adam MacNeil) updated us on three variants circulating in the U.S.: B.1.1.7 (UK); B.1.135 (South Africa); and P.1 (Brazil). But, if you’ve been following my newsletter, he didn’t present anything we didn’t already know.
-Variants are widespread
-B.1.135 and P.1 are worrisome because they can overcome immunity, like seen in Zambia and Manaus
-To have 95% chance of identifying a variant that occurs in 1 out of 1000 cases (0.1% prevalence), need ~3,000 sequences per week. It seems like the U.S. is meeting this metric
-We are on track for B.1.1.7 to be dominant on March 23. It will hit Florida on March 8 and California on April 5
-He also said: “The U.S. is nowhere close to having herd immunity”
 
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ABC news from round the world 

  • Greek health authorities have announced that 70 specialised intensive care units will be added to Athens hospitals as high hospitalisation rates have nearly filled the available ones. The Athens area along with several others across the country are under lockdown until March 8, with most shops closed, schools operating on distance learning, and a 9pm curfew, but many experts talk of extending this for at least another week. On Sunday, authorities announced 1,269 new COVID-19 cases, along with 36 deaths. This brings the number of confirmed cases since the start of the pandemic to 191,100, with 6,504 deaths.

  • Brazil’s capital has entered a two-week lockdown, joining several states in adopting measures to reduce the spread of COVID-19 as intensive care beds begin to fill in some important cities. At least eight Brazilian states adopted curfews over the past week due to the rise in cases and deaths from COVID-19. Thursday was Brazil’s deadliest day since the beginning of the pandemic, with 1,541 deaths confirmed from the virus. So far 254,000 people have died overall.

  • Iran has surpassed 60,000 known coronavirus-related deaths, the latest grim milestone for the hardest-hit country in the Middle East. The Health Ministry reported 93 new deaths from COVID-19 on Sunday and more than 8,000 new infections, pushing the total infection count over 1.63 million. After more than a year of the pandemic, deaths from COVID-19 recently have declined in Iran as movement restrictions in the capital have set in, including inter-city travel bans, mask mandates and school closures. The government on Sunday banned incoming travelers from a list of 32 countries, including Britain and other states in Africa and Latin America, due to fears of new virus variants.

  • Britain’s government says families with children in school will be provided with free coronavirus home test kits as part of plans for schools to reopen beginning on March 8. Free, twice-weekly tests will be provided to children’s households regardless of whether anyone has symptoms, officials said Sunday. The tests will also be offered to adults working with schools, including bus drivers. Education Secretary Gavin Williamson said testing family members will provide “another layer of reassurance to parents and education staff that schools are as safe as possible”. 

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https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN2AS0LE?__twitter_impression=true
 

Norway's capital Oslo will tighten lockdown measures to combat a sharp rise in coronavirus infections linked to a more contagious variant, the city's governing mayor said on Sunday.

The variant, which was first identified in Britain, started spreading in Oslo in January and now accounts for 50-70% of infections, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health (FHI) said on Saturday.

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https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/4/1376/htm

 

From the article: 

We found that the size and power of the state contributes positively to the likelihood and extensions of mass hysteria. The more centralized and the more power a state has, the higher the probability and extension of mass hysteria. In a minimal state, there exist self-correcting mechanisms that limit collective hysteria. The enforcement of private property rights limits the harm inflicted by those that succumb to the hysteria. The state (thanks to a fuzzy public sector and its soft power [123,124]), by contrast, amplifies and exacerbates mass panics, potentially causing important havoc. What are temporarily, locally limited, isolated outbreaks of mass hysteria, the state may convert into a global mass hysteria for an extended period of time. Recent development in information technology and, particularly, the use of social media, as well as a decline of religion, have made societies more prone to the development of mass hysteria [125,126,127]. Unfortunately, once a mass hysteria takes hold of the government, the amount of damage the hysteria can inflict to life and liberty surges as the state’s respect for private property and basic human rights is limited. The violation of basic human rights in the form of curfews, lockdowns, and coercive closure of business has been amply illustrated during the COVID-19 crisis. Naturally, the COVID-19 example is indicative rather than representative and its lessons cannot be generalized. During the COVID-19 crisis, several authors have argued that from a public health point of view, these invasive interventions such as lockdowns have been unnecessary [128,129,130,131] and, indeed, detrimental to overall public health [132,133]. In fact, prior scientific research on disease mitigation measures during a possible influenza pandemic had warned against such invasive interventions and recommended a more normal social functioning [134]. Moreover, in reaction to past pandemics such as the Asian flu of 1957–1958, there were no lockdowns [135], and research before 2020 had opposed lockdowns [136]. From this perspective, the lockdowns have been a policy error. We have shown that these policy errors may well have been produced by a collective hysteria. To which extent there has been a mass hysteria during the COVID-19 crisis is open for future research. In order to prevent the repetition of policy errors similar to those during the COVID-19 crisis, one should be aware of the political economy of mass hysteria developed in this article and the role of the state in fostering mass hysteria. Public health is likely to be affected negatively by state interventions during a mass hysteria due to policy errors.

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2 hours ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/4/1376/htm

 

From the article: 

We found that the size and power of the state contributes positively to the likelihood and extensions of mass hysteria. The more centralized and the more power a state has, the higher the probability and extension of mass hysteria. In a minimal state, there exist self-correcting mechanisms that limit collective hysteria. The enforcement of private property rights limits the harm inflicted by those that succumb to the hysteria. The state (thanks to a fuzzy public sector and its soft power [123,124]), by contrast, amplifies and exacerbates mass panics, potentially causing important havoc. What are temporarily, locally limited, isolated outbreaks of mass hysteria, the state may convert into a global mass hysteria for an extended period of time. Recent development in information technology and, particularly, the use of social media, as well as a decline of religion, have made societies more prone to the development of mass hysteria [125,126,127]. Unfortunately, once a mass hysteria takes hold of the government, the amount of damage the hysteria can inflict to life and liberty surges as the state’s respect for private property and basic human rights is limited. The violation of basic human rights in the form of curfews, lockdowns, and coercive closure of business has been amply illustrated during the COVID-19 crisis. Naturally, the COVID-19 example is indicative rather than representative and its lessons cannot be generalized. During the COVID-19 crisis, several authors have argued that from a public health point of view, these invasive interventions such as lockdowns have been unnecessary [128,129,130,131] and, indeed, detrimental to overall public health [132,133]. In fact, prior scientific research on disease mitigation measures during a possible influenza pandemic had warned against such invasive interventions and recommended a more normal social functioning [134]. Moreover, in reaction to past pandemics such as the Asian flu of 1957–1958, there were no lockdowns [135], and research before 2020 had opposed lockdowns [136]. From this perspective, the lockdowns have been a policy error. We have shown that these policy errors may well have been produced by a collective hysteria. To which extent there has been a mass hysteria during the COVID-19 crisis is open for future research. In order to prevent the repetition of policy errors similar to those during the COVID-19 crisis, one should be aware of the political economy of mass hysteria developed in this article and the role of the state in fostering mass hysteria. Public health is likely to be affected negatively by state interventions during a mass hysteria due to policy errors.

So three economists with no public health background are arguing that lockdowns are a result of mass hysteria exploited by a powerful state to take away people's rights. What's a few million more deaths as long as "the economy" keeps chugging long, eh?

 

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Has anyone been following the evidence for reduced transmission following vaccination? I’m so interested to know how much it reduces the risk of transmission if you are vaccinated, but I can’t quite seem to get a handle on the evidence so far. I don’t know if I’m just getting terms confused or have maybe missed some information about it.

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9 minutes ago, TCB said:

Has anyone been following the evidence for reduced transmission following vaccination? I’m so interested to know how much it reduces the risk of transmission if you are vaccinated, but I can’t quite seem to get a handle on the evidence so far. I don’t know if I’m just getting terms confused or have maybe missed some information about it.

I have been. It's looking good. 

I think the question is what exactly you'd want to measure. The best proxy so far is viral load, and that's seriously reduced after vaccination. 

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6 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I have been. It's looking good. 

I think the question is what exactly you'd want to measure. The best proxy so far is viral load, and that's seriously reduced after vaccination. 

That’s really good news! I’m so happy that it’s looking that way! What a relief that will be.

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25 minutes ago, TCB said:

Has anyone been following the evidence for reduced transmission following vaccination? I’m so interested to know how much it reduces the risk of transmission if you are vaccinated, but I can’t quite seem to get a handle on the evidence so far. I don’t know if I’m just getting terms confused or have maybe missed some information about it.

Preprint from the SIREN study in the UK, which found a significant reduction in asymptomatic infection after even one dose of Pfizer:

"After controlling for the other risk factors, cohort and at a given site, vaccine effectiveness against infection 21 days after the first dose of BNT162b2 vaccine in the overall study population was 70% (95% CI 53-87%) and increased to 85% (95% 74-96%) seven days after the second dose."

(As an aside, 70% effectiveness against even asymptomatic infection after a single dose of Pfizer is much better than J&J's 66% effectiveness against "moderate to severe" infection.)

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4 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Preprint from the SIREN study in the UK, which found a significant reduction in asymptomatic infection after even one dose of Pfizer:

"After controlling for the other risk factors, cohort and at a given site, vaccine effectiveness against infection 21 days after the first dose of BNT162b2 vaccine in the overall study population was 70% (95% CI 53-87%) and increased to 85% (95% 74-96%) seven days after the second dose."

(As an aside, 70% effectiveness against even asymptomatic infection after a single dose of Pfizer is much better than J&J's 66% effectiveness against "moderate to severe" infection.)

That is fantastic news! 

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18 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Preprint from the SIREN study in the UK, which found a significant reduction in asymptomatic infection after even one dose of Pfizer:

"After controlling for the other risk factors, cohort and at a given site, vaccine effectiveness against infection 21 days after the first dose of BNT162b2 vaccine in the overall study population was 70% (95% CI 53-87%) and increased to 85% (95% 74-96%) seven days after the second dose."

(As an aside, 70% effectiveness against even asymptomatic infection after a single dose of Pfizer is much better than J&J's 66% effectiveness against "moderate to severe" infection.)

The information I've seen shows the effectiveness for J&J in severe covid to be 85%, and that jumps to 100% after day 49.  Pfizer is only 90% effective in severe covid. On the flip side we have no actually efficacy rates in the new variants (except UK in Pfizer) for the mRNA vaccines, we have predictions and impacts on antibodies, but not what those actually translate to.

373525699_ScreenShot2021-03-01at3_30_18PM.png.464857a4467ecd445972b7b992947338.png

Edited by melmichigan
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27 minutes ago, melmichigan said:

The information I've seen shows the effectiveness for J&J in severe covid to be 85%, and that jumps to 100% after day 49.  

What does that mean? As in, 49 days after the vaccine no one got severe COVID? How big were the relative groups of people 49 days in? 

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44 minutes ago, melmichigan said:

The information I've seen shows the effectiveness for J&J in severe covid to be 85%, and that jumps to 100% after day 49.  Pfizer is only 90% effective in severe covid. On the flip side we have no actually efficacy rates in the new variants (except UK in Pfizer) for the mRNA vaccines, we have predictions and impacts on antibodies, but not what those actually translate to.

373525699_ScreenShot2021-03-01at3_30_18PM.png.464857a4467ecd445972b7b992947338.png

The 90% efficacy against severe disease for Pfizer is based on a single case in the trial group; I haven't seen anything suggesting they had additional cases beyond 49 days so I would imagine they are 100% at that point as well. The real-world data on Pfizer from Israel showed 92% efficacy against severe disease after 7 days. Moderna = 100% after 7 days. 

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5 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

What does that mean? As in, 49 days after the vaccine no one got severe COVID? How big were the relative groups of people 49 days in? 

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/johnson--johnson-announces-single-shot-janssen-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-met-primary-endpoints-in-interim-analysis-of-its-phase-3-ensemble-trial-301218035.html

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Texas Governor just announced that Texas will no longer have a mask mandate effective March 10th and all businesses can operate at 100% capacity. 

As this is Texas Independence Day, his timing was spot on for excellent press coverage. 

Edited by Bambam
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17 minutes ago, Bambam said:

Texas Governor just announced that Texas will no longer have a mask mandate effective March 10th and all businesses can operate at 100% capacity. 
 

And in my rural area of OH, people are demanding that our governor do the same.  

 

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54 minutes ago, Bambam said:

Texas Governor just announced that Texas will no longer have a mask mandate effective March 10th and all businesses can operate at 100% capacity. 

As this is Texas Independence Day, his timing was spot on for excellent press coverage. 

I'm horrified. Only 5.7 million Texans (of a population of almost 30 million) have been vaccinated. 

Meanwhile, Houston has detected all major variant strains, suggesting the variants are "geographically widely distributed in the Houston metro area": https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/health/article/Houston-is-first-city-to-record-all-major-COVID-15990299.php 

It's a total gut punch to health care workers.

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46 minutes ago, JHLWTM said:

 

Meanwhile, Houston has detected all major variant strains, suggesting the variants are "geographically widely distributed in the Houston metro area": https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/health/article/Houston-is-first-city-to-record-all-major-COVID-15990299.php 

 

This is the first thing I thought of.  Makes no sense at all to me with what is going on.

 

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3 hours ago, Bambam said:

Texas Governor just announced that Texas will no longer have a mask mandate effective March 10th and all businesses can operate at 100% capacity. 

As this is Texas Independence Day, his timing was spot on for excellent press coverage. 

Florida never even had a statewide mandate. And months ago the ability to actually enforce local ones was removed by the governor. Pretty sure businesses can be at full capacity here too - checked and yes, ALL restrictions were lifted back in September. 

Will cities/counties still be able to have mandates?

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23 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

Florida never even had a statewide mandate. And months ago the ability to actually enforce local ones was removed by the governor. Pretty sure businesses can be at full capacity here too - checked and yes, ALL restrictions were lifted back in September. 

Will cities/counties still be able to have mandates?

https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-lifts-mask-mandate-opens-texas-100-percent

 

This executive order rescinds most of the Governor's earlier executive orders related to COVID-19. Effective next Wednesday, all businesses of any type may open to 100% capacity. Additionally, this order ends the statewide mask mandate in Texas. Businesses may still limit capacity or implement additional safety protocols at their own discretion. 

If COVID-19 hospitalizations in any of the 22 hospital regions in Texas get above 15% of the hospital bed capacity in that region for seven straight days, a County Judge in that region may use COVID-19 mitigation strategies. However, County Judges may not impose jail time for not following COVID-19 orders nor may any penalties be imposed for failing to wear a face mask. If restrictions are imposed at a County level, those restrictions may not include reducing capacity to less than 50% for any type of entity. 

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Even though Gov. Abbott is lifting the masking mandate, Texas schools are waiting to hear from Texas Education Agency for the guidelines we will follow. When we started school, TEA guidelines were that everyone would be masked and all students have shields at their desks. I expect TEA to uphold this directive until the end of the school year. If I am wrong, I expect some parents will pull their students to Virtual for the remainder of the year.

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ABC: As more hospitals across Brazil reach the level of rationing care, state health officials continue calling for stricter lockdown measures to reduce the spread of coronavirus.

Brazilian health authorities announced Tuesday a new daily record of 1,641 deaths from COVID-19.

Hospitals in the southern city of Porto Alegre have warned that the city's intensive care units are at capacity, and it's only projected to get worse. 

So far, only 3.8% of the Brazilian population has been vaccinated.

State capitals such as Rio, Salvador, and Porto Alegre are among the cities that have been forced to temporarily suspend immunisation due to lack of vaccines.

Local media reported that Moinhos de Vento hospital in Porto Alegre, the largest private medical centre in the city, is placing patients outside the main building due to overcrowded wards.

They reported that public and private hospitals have had to rent refrigerated containers because the morgues are overflowing.

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I'm starting to see articles about the increase in mental health emergencies among children and adolescents during Covid / school shutdowns.  Here's one example:

https://www.edweek.org/leadership/childrens-mental-health-emergencies-skyrocketed-after-covid-19-hit-what-schools-can-do/2020/11

An article re a school district in our state says 84 of their students have been hospitalized with mental health emergencies (4x the annual average), vs. 7 hospitalized with Covid.

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Virus variant races through Italy, especially among children (apnews.com)

 

The variant of the coronavirus discovered in Britain is prevalent among Italy’s infected schoolchildren and is helping to fuel a “robust” uptick in the curve of COVID-19 contagion in the country, the health minister said Tuesday.

Roberto Speranza told reporters that the variant, associated with higher transmission rates, has shown pervasiveness “among the youngest age group” of the population.

In recent weeks, Italy’s incidence of new cases among young people has now eclipsed incidence among the older population, a reversal of how COVID-19 afflicted residents in the first months of the pandemic.

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3 hours ago, SKL said:

I'm starting to see articles about the increase in mental health emergencies among children and adolescents during Covid / school shutdowns.  Here's one example:

https://www.edweek.org/leadership/childrens-mental-health-emergencies-skyrocketed-after-covid-19-hit-what-schools-can-do/2020/11

An article re a school district in our state says 84 of their students have been hospitalized with mental health emergencies (4x the annual average), vs. 7 hospitalized with Covid.

But that shows it as a proportion of ER visits, which are down overall. From the study found here: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6945a3.htm?s_cid=mm6945a3_w#F1_down

Mental health visits are down overall from year to year. It's only when the other reasons of ER visits are farther down, that mental health visits look to have increased. 

Edit: one of my DD's spent time in 2 different in-patient adolescent psych wards as she has at least 1x per year for 3 years. Both hospitals were far less crowded and it was much easier to get a bed than in previous years. 

I'm not saying it is not something to worry about. Good mental health provisions are extremely important during times of stress. But what I saw over the past year was a lot of hyperbole and a lot of stressing over a rise in suicide rates that has not yet come to happen. 

 

 

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Edited by historically accurate
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The situation in Brazil is sounding quite bad.  I hope it isn’t a sign of what happens with the variant, I don’t know if this is sensationalising things or not 

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/03/brazil-covid-global-threat-new-more-lethal-variants-miguel-nicolelis?__twitter_impression=true

Apparently Astra zeneca vax is about half as effective at reducing transmission as its efficacy rate according to the coronacast today.  If anyone has seen an actual study with accurate figures I’m interested.  (Also I guess that’s not high enough for herd immunity which isn’t great).

India’s vaccine so apparently 86pc effective so that’s some positive news.

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Ohio has announced criteria for abandoning health orders: 50 cases per 100k for two weeks.

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2021/03/04/coronavirus-ohio-one-year-later-more-vaccines-but-not-out-woods-yet/6867264002/

I have concerns about pockets of the state having higher numbers while the overall average meets that requirement—my area had a lot of spread when things were at the worst. People here don’t take as many precautions as some areas of the state.

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I think that's a long way off though. I haven't done the math myself, but one article said they would need cases to be below 417 per day for 14 days straight — and the current average is above 1700. The last time the case rate was in that ballpark was mid-June, so it could be a couple of months before Ohio gets there.

ETA: I get around 585/day, I'm not sure how the article I read got 417, but either way it still seems a ways off.

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Just now, Corraleno said:

I think that's a long way off though. I haven't done the math myself, but one article said they would need cases to be below 417 per day for 14 days straight — and the current average is above 1700. The last time the case rate was in that ballpark was mid-June, so it could be a couple of months before Ohio gets there.

I hope so, not because I want things to be bad but because I want to be vaccinated before they end masking. 

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18 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

The situation in Brazil is sounding quite bad.  I hope it isn’t a sign of what happens with the variant, I don’t know if this is sensationalising things or not 

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/03/brazil-covid-global-threat-new-more-lethal-variants-miguel-nicolelis?__twitter_impression=true

Apparently Astra zeneca vax is about half as effective at reducing transmission as its efficacy rate according to the coronacast today.  If anyone has seen an actual study with accurate figures I’m interested.  (Also I guess that’s not high enough for herd immunity which isn’t great).

India’s vaccine so apparently 86pc effective so that’s some positive news.

Question:  if Ivermectin were so effective then this situation in Brazil wouldn't be happening, right?  Just wondering if that is the case. 

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5 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

Question:  if Ivermectin were so effective then this situation in Brazil wouldn't be happening, right?  Just wondering if that is the case. 

Presumably yes.  I think like many of these things it’s only marginally effective if at all, certainly not a lot to compensate for total lack of public health measure to control things.

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On 3/4/2021 at 12:19 PM, Ausmumof3 said:

Apparently Astra zeneca vax is about half as effective at reducing transmission as its efficacy rate according to the coronacast today.  If anyone has seen an actual study with accurate figures I’m interested.  (Also I guess that’s not high enough for herd immunity which isn’t great).

India’s vaccine so apparently 86pc effective so that’s some positive news.

Reduction in infection after innoculation with Oxford-AstraZeneca:

https://www.livescience.com/astrazeneca-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-cuts-transmission.html

image.png.55e4bd1931a7cff6bd27fb87a57f31f9.png

Protection from serious illness:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55302595

image.png.f2ef0a69a447f2d98f90a7f7811b5968.png

Edited by Laura Corin
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10 hours ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

Question:  if Ivermectin were so effective then this situation in Brazil wouldn't be happening, right?  Just wondering if that is the case. 

I have wondered that too.

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9 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Presumably yes.  I think like many of these things it’s only marginally effective if at all, certainly not a lot to compensate for total lack of public health measure to control things.

I wish that those people saying how awful Drs etc are for not prescribing these meds would have the grace to come back on and admit maybe they were wrong. But that doesn’t seem to happen, it’s ignored and move right on to the next thing.

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