wuhan - coronavirus

[mommyoffive]

Has anyone seen more on this? 

This Over-the-Counter Medication Can Kill COVID, Study Says | Best Life (bestlifeonline.com)

University and Utah State University tested the effectiveness of an over-the-counter nasal spray known as Xlear Sinus Care against cultures of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID. Ingredients of the spray include 11 percent xylitol—which is a chemical compound typically used as a sweetener that study authors report has reduced the severity of viral infections—as well as .2 percent grapefruit seed extract (GSE) and .85 percent saline.

The results showed that after 25 minutes of contact time, the amount of active virus was dramatically reduced by the GSE and had been neutralized by xylitol. "Combination therapy with GSE and xylitol may prevent spread of viral respiratory infections not just for SAR-CoV-2 but also for future H1N1 or other viral epidemics. GSE significantly reduces the viral load while xylitol prevents the virus attachment to the core protein on the cell wall," the study authors wrote.

[stripe]

Looks like the FTC warned Xlear not to advertise its effectiveness against COVID

https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/warning-letters/covid-19-letter_to_xlear_inc.pdf

 

[Laura Corin]

https://www.recoverytrial.net/news/tocilizumab-reduces-deaths-in-patients-hospitalised-with-covid-19

[lewelma]

12 hours ago, Melissa in Australia said:

we are all behind stopping the spread of Coronavirus, but getting tad tired of it escaping from returned travelers

NZ seems to be doing better in this regard.  I wonder how our quarantine is different from yours to be more effective. My understanding is that both countries have about the same number of returning travelers every week, so it is not that Australia has more people so more opportunity for escape. So far we have only had one extra lockdown (August, Auckland) since Covid was eradicated here 11 May.

[Corraleno]

4 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

Has anyone seen more on this? 

This Over-the-Counter Medication Can Kill COVID, Study Says | Best Life (bestlifeonline.com)

University and Utah State University tested the effectiveness of an over-the-counter nasal spray known as Xlear Sinus Care against cultures of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID. Ingredients of the spray include 11 percent xylitol—which is a chemical compound typically used as a sweetener that study authors report has reduced the severity of viral infections—as well as .2 percent grapefruit seed extract (GSE) and .85 percent saline.

The results showed that after 25 minutes of contact time, the amount of active virus was dramatically reduced by the GSE and had been neutralized by xylitol. "Combination therapy with GSE and xylitol may prevent spread of viral respiratory infections not just for SAR-CoV-2 but also for future H1N1 or other viral epidemics. GSE significantly reduces the viral load while xylitol prevents the virus attachment to the core protein on the cell wall," the study authors wrote.

I looked up the two studies that are referenced in that article: one is an in vitro study that has not been peer reviewed or published, and the other is a "case study" of 3 patients, with no control group, that really can't say much except the patients eventually got better.

Most significantly, however, one of the authors/investigators in both of those "studies" (Gustavo Ferrer) does R&D for the company that manufactures the nasal spray, Xlear, and the company funded the research. The company then used the "research" they funded to advertise their product as "a solution to the pandemic," which the FTC has ordered them to stop.

 

[Corraleno]

Interesting study on Vit D from the UK, suggesting that regular supplementation with Vit D "was significantly associated with a 34% lower risk of COVID-19 infection (OR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.45–0.97; P = 0.034)."

This was not an RCT, the data came from a large UK database that included over 8000 people with covid test results, and the information on supplementation was self-reported and was not concurrent with the test results. So it's possible that some of those people were no longer taking Vit D, or that many people who take Vit D also take or do other things that reduce their risk for covid. But they did run the numbers for many other supplements and found no protective effect for supplementation with A, B, C, E, folic acid, calcium, iron, zinc, selenium, glucosamine, fish oil, or a multivitamin.

This was a peer reviewed study published two weeks ago in a respected journal (American Journal of Clinical Nutrition):
https://academic.oup.com/ajcn/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ajcn/nqaa381/6123965

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, lewelma said:

NZ seems to be doing better in this regard.  I wonder how our quarantine is different from yours to be more effective. My understanding is that both countries have about the same number of returning travelers every week, so it is not that Australia has more people so more opportunity for escape. So far we have only had one extra lockdown (August, Auckland) since Covid was eradicated here 11 May.

Our caps were recently lifted (5/2) to around 6,500.  From what I can see NZ is running 4,500 roughly.  I doubt that is a big factor but every time we’ve had an outbreak so far it seems to have been shortly after an increase in incoming numbers.  I have to wonder if an increase in pressure on staff is contributing.  But I suspect the bigger issue is round the aerosol transmission maybe as quarantine workers aren’t getting fitted N95 masks.  
 

Our numbers is overseas cases coming in has dropped significantly in my state after they started requiring a negative test before departure, although that could also be linked to currently declining numbers worldwide.

[Ausmumof3]

Abc (Aus)

In news from overseas, France's health authority has recommended that anyone previously infected with COVID-19 should only receive one vaccine dose, instead of the normal two.

It said people who recovered from COVID had some immunity and should be inoculated three to six months afterwards.

France is the first country to issue this advice.

Interesting!  I wonder what the reasoning is for this?

[Ausmumof3]

US rolling average for new cases has fallen below 100,000.   I’m seeing some concern around new variants increasing still within that.

VIC had 2 more local cases.  It looks like NZ has three community cases and are increasing restrictions a little.

[lewelma]

Our turn. Auckland is moving into level 3 lockdown for 3 days (schools closed, all people who can work from home should, and road closures so no one can leave). Rest of country at 100 person gathering limit. All due to 1 family with 3 cases. Because we only have imported cases (about 20 per week), all cases are genome tested. So we will know by tomorrow, where this family got it. 

 

Edited February 14, 2021 by lewelma

[Ausmumof3]

39 minutes ago, lewelma said:

Our turn. Auckland is moving into level 3 lockdown for 3 days (schools closed, all people who can work from home should, and road closures so no one can leave). Rest of country at 100 person gathering limit. All due to 1 family with 3 cases. Because we only have imported cases (about 20 per week), all cases are genome tested. So we will know by tomorrow, where this family got it. 

 

Hopefully the lockdown is successful and you can get back to normal quickly.  

[Melissa in Australia]

51 minutes ago, lewelma said:

Our turn. Auckland is moving into level 3 lockdown for 3 days (schools closed, all people who can work from home should, and road closures so no one can leave). Rest of country at 100 person gathering limit. All due to 1 family with 3 cases. Because we only have imported cases (about 20 per week), all cases are genome tested. So we will know by tomorrow, where this family got it. 

 

media here is saying that the mother worked for airplane catering, mostly laundry

[lewelma]

12 hours ago, Melissa in Australia said:

media here is saying that the mother worked for airplane catering, mostly laundry

Yup. So here is what they found last night. 

It is the UK strain.

The genome testing does not link it to the Quarantine facilities, so it has not escaped.

The sewage testing of Auckland has found no evidence of Covid, so it is not in the community.

The options:

It has come from a transit passenger (I assume using NZ to get to the islands and not staying in quarantine here.)

or it could be from AirNZ crew, and they are now comparing the genomes for that group. The are assuming person to person contact, but won't rule out it being carried on laundry.

They are giving themselves 3 days to sort it out with the city locked down (all people who can work from home, must). They are testing huge swaths of Auckland, especially the workplaces and high school of the family. They will decide on Wednesday next steps depending on what they find. 

We are not really affected here in Wellington, but we did all get a verbal alert on our phones last night. We were all sitting on the sofa and all our phones went off. It was pretty funny because they were out of sync and the message was about a minute long giving instructions. 

 

[prairiewindmomma]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/four-people-oregon-who-received-both-doses-vaccine-test-positive-n1257886

[Corraleno]

28 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/four-people-oregon-who-received-both-doses-vaccine-test-positive-n1257886

I think that's to be expected — based on the manufacturers' stats, for every 100 unvaccinated people who test positive, 5 vaccinated people will test positive. The fact that the cases are all mild or asymptomatic is certainly good news.

[Ausmumof3]

ABC

Israeli study finds 94 per cent drop in symptomatic COVID-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

Israel's biggest healthcare provider is reporting a 94 per cent drop in symptomatic coronavirus casesamong 600,000 people who've been fully vaccinated with the Pfizer jab.

Health maintenance organisation (HMO) Clalit, which covers more than half of all Israelis, said the same group was also 92 per cent less likely to develop severe illness from the virus.

Israel has vaccinated more of its population than any other country in terms of proportion, administering nearly 6.3 million doses among its population of nine million people.

[Ausmumof3]

U.S. COVID update:

- New cases: 71,844
- Positivity rate: 5.1% (-0.1)
- In hospital: 67,023 (-2,260)
- In ICU: 14,047 (-349)
- New deaths: 1,363
- Data: COVID TP

Vaccinated:
- 1st dose: 39.3M (+958K)
- 2nd dose: 14.5M (+800K)
must admit I’m curious as to what is driving the decrease.  Happy to see it just not sure why?

[vonfirmath]

1 minute ago, Ausmumof3 said:

U.S. COVID update:

- New cases: 71,844
- Positivity rate: 5.1% (-0.1)
- In hospital: 67,023 (-2,260)
- In ICU: 14,047 (-349)
- New deaths: 1,363
- Data: COVID TP

Vaccinated:
- 1st dose: 39.3M (+958K)
- 2nd dose: 14.5M (+800K)
must admit I’m curious as to what is driving the decrease.  Happy to see it just not sure why?

I'm not sure how many COVID-19 tests have been run in all of Texas. With weather this cold, places just aren't open and I don't imagine anyone is testing if its not critical.

 

[Corraleno]

6 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

ABC

Israeli study finds 94 per cent drop in symptomatic COVID-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

Israel's biggest healthcare provider is reporting a 94 per cent drop in symptomatic coronavirus casesamong 600,000 people who've been fully vaccinated with the Pfizer jab.

Health maintenance organisation (HMO) Clalit, which covers more than half of all Israelis, said the same group was also 92 per cent less likely to develop severe illness from the virus.

Israel has vaccinated more of its population than any other country in terms of proportion, administering nearly 6.3 million doses among its population of nine million people.

I'm confused by the 92% figure — it sounds like they're saying that the 600,000 vaccinated people were 94% less likely to contract the disease, but 92% less likely to have a severe case? Do they mean that of the small percentage of vaccinated people who did catch it, 92% of that subgroup did not have severe cases? I wish they had expressed those figures in the same way, like "the vaccinated group were 94% less likely to catch it and 99% (or whatever it is) less likely to have a severe case."

[Shoeless]

8 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

U.S. COVID update:

- New cases: 71,844
- Positivity rate: 5.1% (-0.1)
- In hospital: 67,023 (-2,260)
- In ICU: 14,047 (-349)
- New deaths: 1,363
- Data: COVID TP

Vaccinated:
- 1st dose: 39.3M (+958K)
- 2nd dose: 14.5M (+800K)
must admit I’m curious as to what is driving the decrease.  Happy to see it just not sure why?

The decrease has been pretty dramatic for a little while now. I'm confused by it, too. 

[Corraleno]

22 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

U.S. COVID update:

- New cases: 71,844
- Positivity rate: 5.1% (-0.1)
- In hospital: 67,023 (-2,260)
- In ICU: 14,047 (-349)
- New deaths: 1,363
- Data: COVID TP

Vaccinated:
- 1st dose: 39.3M (+958K)
- 2nd dose: 14.5M (+800K)
must admit I’m curious as to what is driving the decrease.  Happy to see it just not sure why?

Well for one thing it's Sunday, which is always low compared to weekdays. But I think the main reason numbers are lower is because the insane spike caused by so many people traveling and socializing over Thanksgiving and Christmas is finally over.

ETA: The 7-day average is 92K cases, which is back where we were in early November, and deaths are around 2600, which is where they were in mid-December.

Also I think the vaccine rollout may be making those who were semi-cautious last fall even more cautious now that vaccination is tantalizingly within reach. That is certainly the case for me, although I would say I've gone from very cautious to extremely cautious — e.g. last fall I was still grocery shopping in person once a week or so (although I would go as soon as the store opened, wear a Happy Mask, and get in and out as quickly as possible), but now I am getting all groceries delivered and I'm even masking when DD is here, because she is working now and has possible exposure that way. I do NOT want to get sick now when vaccination is only a few weeks away!

Edited February 15, 2021 by Corraleno

[Ausmumof3]

3 hours ago, Corraleno said:

I'm confused by the 92% figure — it sounds like they're saying that the 600,000 vaccinated people were 94% less likely to contract the disease, but 92% less likely to have a severe case? Do they mean that of the small percentage of vaccinated people who did catch it, 92% of that subgroup did not have severe cases? I wish they had expressed those figures in the same way, like "the vaccinated group were 94% less likely to catch it and 99% (or whatever it is) less likely to have a severe case."

I think comparing the group of unvaccinated to vaccinated people is means there were 92pc less severe cases.  So if there were 100 severe cases in the unvaccinated group during the time period there were only 8 in the vaccinated group?  But for overall cases say there was 100,000 in the unvaccinated group there was 6000 in the vaccinated group.    It confused me as well.  I should probably dig up the original stats which would be clearer than the news article.

[Corraleno]

I'm starting see to a lot more media coverage on the spread of variant strains in the US.

Article in the Orlando Sentinel saying that Florida is trying to hide the prevalence of the UK strain there, and they have more than twice as many cases as in the next closest state (CA). 

Predictions are that the UK variant will become the dominant one in the US in March. Dr. Michael Osterhelm (epidemiologist and member of the presidential advisory board) called the impending arrival of the variants, esp. SA, "a category 5 hurricane" and predicts another surge in 6-14 weeks. Dr. Peter Hotez (Baylor College of Medicine) says we are currently in "the eye of the storm." Story from KTEN

Article in WaPo about a man hospitalized in France in critical condition after contracting the SA variant, despite having already had covid last fall. From Fauci: "If it becomes dominant, the experience of our colleagues in South Africa indicates that even if you’ve been infected with the original virus, that there is a very high rate of reinfection to the point where previous infection does not seem to protect you against reinfection,” he said. “That gets to the point that we’ve said over and over again, vaccination is very important.”

Novavax found in their SA trial that having had the original strain provided significantly less protection against infection with the new variant than the vaccine did. So all those folks who plan to skip the vaccine because they've already had covid, or because they think they can catch a mild case of covid and get better immunity than the vaccine, may want to rethink their plans.

Edited February 15, 2021 by Corraleno

[kbutton]

9 hours ago, Corraleno said:

I'm starting see to a lot more media coverage on the spread of variant strains in the US.

Article in the Orlando Sentinel saying that Florida is trying to hide the prevalence of the UK strain there, and they have more than twice as many cases as in the next closest state (CA). 

Predictions are that the UK variant will become the dominant one in the US in March. Dr. Michael Osterhelm (epidemiologist and member of the presidential advisory board) called the impending arrival of the variants, esp. SA, "a category 5 hurricane" and predicts another surge in 6-14 weeks. Dr. Peter Hotez (Baylor College of Medicine) says we are currently in "the eye of the storm." Story from KTEN

Meanwhile, all the studies on the lack of school spread and push to re-open don't take these strains into account as far as I know. 

12 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

must admit I’m curious as to what is driving the decrease.  Happy to see it just not sure why?

The vaccine might be working very well among folks who have been fully vaccinated. While it's largely healthcare workers and the elderly so far, it would help with nursing homes. Also, the elderly are often out and about to go to doctor visits, pick up meds, etc. or have caregivers in their homes. While that's not been noted for significant spread, we don't have great contact tracing here to say it's not been spreading that way to some extent.  

I think it's that we're not in the middle of the holidays and that big chunks of the US have yucky weather--people don't go out as much around where I live in January and February. We're having a snowier mid-winter than we have a lot of years.

I am curious if there were a lot of Super Bowl parties (I was surprised to not see a bunch on FB), and if that will show up soon. Seems like we had an uptick right after Halloween, at least locally. 

[ktgrok]

10 hours ago, Corraleno said:

I'm starting see to a lot more media coverage on the spread of variant strains in the US.

Article in the Orlando Sentinel saying that Florida is trying to hide the prevalence of the UK strain there, and they have more than twice as many cases as in the next closest state (CA). 

Predictions are that the UK variant will become the dominant one in the US in March. Dr. Michael Osterhelm (epidemiologist and member of the presidential advisory board) called the impending arrival of the variants, esp. SA, "a category 5 hurricane" and predicts another surge in 6-14 weeks. Dr. Peter Hotez (Baylor College of Medicine) says we are currently in "the eye of the storm." Story from KTEN

 

And yet here people are "back to normal" if they ever stopped anything. Heck, just got asked if I'd be willing to go to a yoga retreat for 3 days in the panhandle in July. Um, not unless I'm freaking vaccinated and y'all are too!

[Corraleno]

This is a case study in why it's important not to just accept "research results" you see or read on YouTube or FB, even when the information is presented by a reputable source whose expertise and motives you trust.

Dr. John Campbell has a very popular YouTube channel where he posts lots of videos on covid. He's not a medical doctor, he's a PhD who taught nursing students in the UK, and he's very good at breaking down complex medical information into plain English. He's also a big fan of Vit D and has been pushing that since pretty much the beginning of the pandemic. So last night I saw that he had a new video up about a Vit D study.

He's super excited about this study, which he says is a "very high quality" randomized study with "dramatic" and "totally convincing" results, and which, although not yet peer reviewed, he expects to be published shortly with little to no revisions. He is so convinced by this study that he says the "noble" people who agreed to be in the control group "sacrificed their lives" for science, since many of their deaths could have been prevented by treating with Vit D.

So yay! There have been a ton of studies showing a very strong correlation between low D levels and severe disease, and now we have an actual randomized study with a control group claiming to show that treatment of hospitalized patients with Vit D dramatically decreases ICU admissions and mortality. Awesome!

So I go read the actual study (which Campbell does encourage, so kudos for that). The first thing that jumps out at me is that there were more deaths than ICU admissions in the treatment group, which is the opposite of what you'd expect, and it's the reverse of what they saw in the control group. And why is the treatment group nearly twice the size of the control group? Wait — the treatment group had higher levels of Vit D to begin with, even before treatment?? Why didn't they control for that when they randomized?

So I scroll to the bottom to look for comments on the preprint, and there are lots of people asking those same questions. One suggests that since the investigators clearly knew which patients were getting the Vit D, they may have been more reluctant to transfer those patients to ICU, since that would negatively effect their results. There was a link to a twitter thread critiquing the study, so I head to twitter and google the author to check his credentials: biochem degree from Harvard, Columbia med school, Masters in epidemiology from U Penn, currently teaches at Yale, including a course called "Understanding Medical Research: Your Facebook Friend is Wrong." Certainly seems qualified to comment on this study!

He says that the study is not actually "randomized" at all, they just decided to give Vit D to everyone in 5 wards versus no D in 3 other wards. They did not randomize patients into those wards or control for other factors, and the patients who got the treatment had higher D levels to begin with. He said that the statistical analysis methods they used were totally wrong for the type of study it was.

A medical statistician who commented on the thread said that if you run the correct analysis ("cluster randomized" versus individually randomized) you do not get significant results. An Australian epidemiologist called out numerous issues with the study (e.g. some of their dates don't line up, the type of study they got ethics approval for is not the type of study they claim they did, they appear to have done other treatment experiments on this same group of patients, etc.) and he said that it's either a cluster-randomized trial with a sample size of 8, or it's just an observational cohort study, and either way it doesn't seem to present statistically valid results.

Campbell is not a conspiracy nut purposely trying to mislead people, and I'm sure he sincerely believes that this study proves that giving a few not-even-very-high doses of Vit D to hospitalized patients dramatically reduces the mortality rate. But he is not an expert in statistics, and he did not look very deeply into this study before declaring that it offered undeniable proof of the "startling" efficacy of Vit D treatment, which just happened to confirm his long-held beliefs.

Of course this study is now being touted all over social media, with Vit D hailed as a cheap effective cure for covid, and lots of conspiracy theories about how Big Pharma and the government are suppressing this information in order to force everyone to get expensive and dangerous vaccines. 🙄

 

 

Edited February 15, 2021 by Corraleno

[Jean in Newcastle]

Sigh.  I just got a newsletter from a missionary in India claiming that there have only been 166 deaths from Covid in India, thus proving that they have herd immunity and we should not treat it or something of that sort. . .     Worldmeter says that there have been 155,836 deaths from Covid in India. . . 

Major sigh. 

Edited February 15, 2021 by Jean in Newcastle
left out a word

[BeachGal]

 

Vitamin D used prophylactically, ideally well before contracting Covid, is more likely a better choice than using it as a therapeutic on active infections. It can take a minimum of a week or so, and often much longer, to see improvements in levels of vitamin d after supplementing. Supplementing doesn't help much anyway if there are other problems, such as magnesium deficiency, etc.

Although he sounds like a kind person who sincerely wants to help people, I don't think Campbell is the best source for scrutinizing these sorts of studies. I prefer to follow William Grant. Bruce Ames and Walt Willett, also.

[Corraleno]

Covid-Linked Syndrome in Children Is Growing and Cases Are More Severe

Doctors across the country have been seeing a striking increase in the number of young people with ... Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children or MIS-C. Even more worrisome, they say, is that more patients are now very sick than during the first wave of cases, which alarmed doctors and parents around the world last spring.

“We’re now getting more of these MIS-C kids, but this time, it just seems that a higher percentage of them are really critically ill,” said Dr. Roberta DeBiasi, chief of infectious diseases at Children’s National Hospital in Washington, D.C. During the hospital’s first wave, about half the patients needed treatment in the intensive care unit, she said, but now 80 to 90 percent do.

😥

[Ausmumof3]

Vic are coming out of full lockdown.  I’m worried it’s too soon but hopefully it will be ok.

[Mrs Tiggywinkle]

9 hours ago, Corraleno said:

Covid-Linked Syndrome in Children Is Growing and Cases Are More Severe

Doctors across the country have been seeing a striking increase in the number of young people with ... Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children or MIS-C. Even more worrisome, they say, is that more patients are now very sick than during the first wave of cases, which alarmed doctors and parents around the world last spring.

“We’re now getting more of these MIS-C kids, but this time, it just seems that a higher percentage of them are really critically ill,” said Dr. Roberta DeBiasi, chief of infectious diseases at Children’s National Hospital in Washington, D.C. During the hospital’s first wave, about half the patients needed treatment in the intensive care unit, she said, but now 80 to 90 percent do.

😥

I have personally seen this. It is very concerning to me.

[Ausmumof3]

an epidemiologist take on why cases are going down- whole thread is good.  Her basic conclusion is behaviour change although many people from the US seem to be saying they aren’t seeing much change in behaviour.  

[RootAnn]

41 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Her basic conclusion is behaviour change although many people from the US seem to be saying they aren’t seeing much change in behaviour

I haven't read this yet but I agree with the "many people." I would say more people are crowding around, more people hanging with other families, and less people wearing masks correctly.

My personal, non-expert opinion is that those who have to be out in public got Covid (by area of the country), then we saw a decrease in cases once there weren't many of those left. Then, the less careful & those who could no longer be careful (schools opening, for instance) got it in the latest wave. I think the case drop is where there aren't as many people left to get Covid who aren't being careful. The temporary reprieve could be "herd immunity" among those who've already had covid who are out living their lives. I expect another wave when temporary Covid immunity wears off, another event like a holiday, or where a large group that has been being careful has to go out & interact  (like the Texas power issues or more schools open).

[Mrs Tiggywinkle]

34 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

I haven't read this yet but I agree with the "many people." I would say more people are crowding around, more people hanging with other families, and less people wearing masks correctly.

My personal, non-expert opinion is that those who have to be out in public got Covid (by area of the country), then we saw a decrease in cases once there weren't many of those left. Then, the less careful & those who could no longer be careful (schools opening, for instance) got it in the latest wave. I think the case drop is where there aren't as many people left to get Covid who aren't being careful. The temporary reprieve could be "herd immunity" among those who've already had covid who are out living their lives. I expect another wave when temporary Covid immunity wears off, another event like a holiday, or where a large group that has been being careful has to go out & interact  (like the Texas power issues or more schools open).

I kind of agree.  Our positivity rate locally is low, and I no longer know anyone personally who is being any kind of careful. In fact, I know a nurse practitioner and her ICU nurse husband who spent last week in Aruba with their kids.  All four have already had Covid.  In the spring and summer I was seeing a lot of people at work as a paramedic(patients who called 911) who reported self quarantining to avoid getting covid. I almost never see that now.  People are eating out, going to stores, traveling and entertaining in their homes. Churches and schools are open. Yet our positivity rate is falling daily.  It really should be too early for vaccines to make that much of a dent, so I personally believe it’s some sort of rudimentary heard immunity.  Now we do have mandatory masking in NY, but we have for a year and it didn’t make much of a dent.

My concern is that we just don’t know how long natural immunity lasts and if we’ll get another wave in a few months.

[JumpyTheFrog]

I have a hard time believing that the main reason for the drop would be that Americans in every state would suddenly be behaving much more cautiously overall. I find it more plausible that we are running out of the most susceptible people, at least the ones who aren't carefully isolating themselves. 

[mommyoffive]

US life expectancy drops a year in pandemic, most since WWII (news12.com)

[KeriJ]

Is it possible that the number of people who have had it, people who didn't know they had it(asymptomatic so never tested), and the people who have been vaccinated are starting to combine into the beginning of herd immunity?

[ScoutTN]

1 hour ago, RootAnn said:

I haven't read this yet but I agree with the "many people." I would say more people are crowding around, more people hanging with other families, and less people wearing masks correctly.

My personal, non-expert opinion is that those who have to be out in public got Covid (by area of the country), then we saw a decrease in cases once there weren't many of those left. Then, the less careful & those who could no longer be careful (schools opening, for instance) got it in the latest wave. I think the case drop is where there aren't as many people left to get Covid who aren't being careful. The temporary reprieve could be "herd immunity" among those who've already had covid who are out living their lives. I expect another wave when temporary Covid immunity wears off, another event like a holiday, or where a large group that has been being careful has to go out & interact  (like the Texas power issues or more schools open).

Absolutely behavior driven.
 
A few weeks after Spring Break will be the next surge, imo. Like the Christmas season, SB is a month or so long, so the surge will be larger than say the late July one where the holiday gatherings were focused in a few days.

[maize]

7 minutes ago, KeriJ said:

Is it possible that the number of people who have had it, people who didn't know they had it(asymptomatic so never tested), and the people who have been vaccinated are starting to combine into the beginning of herd immunity?

Not herd immunity, but enough to lower transmission rates yes, quite possibly. Especially with a dynamic in which those who are inclined to be less careful have been infected, and therefore developed immunity, at higher rates. If an infected person is in a room with 25 other people, and ten of those are immune, the risk of infecting someone is lower than if all 25 were susceptible (as at the beginning of the pandemic). And the maximum number that might be infected by that one individual is much lower (this matters since we know that superspreaders play a significant role in covid spread).

[Starr]

Will it then spike again if folks don't get vaccinated? I live in an area where folks aren't availing themselves to the vaccine. And due to weather we all stay home more in January-March. We are also having a breakout in the university shutting it down and going all online.

[Wheres Toto]

I think probably a combination of the most susceptible getting vaccinated (elderly in care homes, healthcare workers), those who are most likely to not be careful most likely already having had it even if asymptomatically, winter (especially this obnoxiously wet, snowy, cold winter) keeping people home more, and not as many gatherings happening.

I am seeing people around here planning graduations, Spring Break trips, and parties and I'm wondering what the heck they are thinking. 

[RootAnn]

3 minutes ago, Wheres Toto said:

I am seeing people around here planning graduations, Spring Break trips, and parties and I'm wondering what the heck they are thinking. 

They are thinking it [the pandemic] is over & they can get back to living their lives.

The rest of us, unfortunately, know we aren't out of the ditch yet.

[TCB]

Anyone else nervous about the variants? If not please reassure me because it is making me nervous. I’m really loving the reduced numbers, but I can’t really enjoy it because of the worry about one of the variants roaring through.

[ktgrok]

1 minute ago, TCB said:

Anyone else nervous about the variants? If not please reassure me because it is making me nervous. I’m really loving the reduced numbers, but I can’t really enjoy it because of the worry about one of the variants roaring through.

Right with you. I'm about to hack at my own hair again, rather than go get it cut like I did the last two times, because we know the variant from the UK is here in Florida. I'm also paying the dang delivry fees and ordering more rather than shopping in person. 

[Jean in Newcastle]

4 minutes ago, TCB said:

Anyone else nervous about the variants? If not please reassure me because it is making me nervous. I’m really loving the reduced numbers, but I can’t really enjoy it because of the worry about one of the variants roaring through.

I am not super nervous.  I am cautious and am not "going back to normal".  I am double masking.  But I am in the "time will tell" mode as to whether things will come roaring through or not.  Perhaps I'm at the point where I recognize that I can only control my own risk and even that to only an extent so I'm just in wait and see mode.  But I am also not working in an ICU and while dh is a nurse, he's now management so he's not on the floor either.  Plus he's vaccinated so I am breathing a small sigh of relief that that might be one more mitigating factor in our favor.  When I can be vaccinated too, I will breathe an even bigger sigh of relief but will still remain cautious. 

[Kassia]

18 minutes ago, TCB said:

Anyone else nervous about the variants? If not please reassure me because it is making me nervous. I’m really loving the reduced numbers, but I can’t really enjoy it because of the worry about one of the variants roaring through.

I feel the same way, but I worry about everything!  

[mommyoffive]

6 hours ago, RootAnn said:

They are thinking it [the pandemic] is over & they can get back to living their lives.

The rest of us, unfortunately, know we aren't out of the ditch yet.

I ran into a lot of these people today.  No masks and just living their life.  I couldn't even believe it. 

[Terabith]

39 minutes ago, TCB said:

Anyone else nervous about the variants? If not please reassure me because it is making me nervous. I’m really loving the reduced numbers, but I can’t really enjoy it because of the worry about one of the variants roaring through.

I'm super nervous about the variants.  We've lowered our risks, not even going into stores, but my oldest's school is going back after spring break, and while I really am not comfortable with it, I have concerns about saying no, too, given that they haven't been around any peers since October of 2019.  Honestly, with our current numbers and percent positivity and the precautions the school has in place, I'd be okay with them going back now, but the unknowns about the variants and my confidence about what conditions will be like in April are not great.  

I'm also pondering whether it would be safe to let my youngest take a volunteer job at the zoo, working outdoors masked.  

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, TCB said:

Anyone else nervous about the variants? If not please reassure me because it is making me nervous. I’m really loving the reduced numbers, but I can’t really enjoy it because of the worry about one of the variants roaring through.

The South African one worries me because of the vaccines being less effective.  And presumably if it arose there it can develop similar traits elsewhere unless transmission is slowed down.  I have seen some suggest that with the lack of genomic testing in the US it’s possible that one of the variants that helped drive the November spike.  I think as well looking at Spanish flu etc most likely there will be another wave unless vaccination is rolled out fast enough to stop it completely.

Edited February 19, 2021 by Ausmumof3

[RootAnn]

Does everybody remember the models early on that were symmetrical going up & coming down? And how that wasn't how positive  cases ever looked?

Has anyone noticed the precipitous drop & how symmetrical it would be with the nearly exponential rise at some points during the pandemic?

It is just really, really weird.