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24 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

I haven't seen this in national news yet, but I have been following this story:

https://www.kansascity.com/news/state/missouri/article244033672.html

https://www.ksdk.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/missouri-summer-camp-coronavirus-outbreak-raises-safety-questions/63-7ff9422f-9022-4ff9-9d2d-978a0148ec1b : this article mentions camp outbreaks in TX (76 people at one camp) and other states

https://fox4kc.com/news/covid-19-infects-dozens-of-campers-workers-at-missouri-summer-camp/ : this mentions that those affected at the Missouri camp were at the K-2 camp.

 

I don't understand how anyone thinks summer camps are a great idea. I'm feeling annoyed that an organization with which I volunteer is planning on holding day camps later in the summer. Our county numbers are rising steadily, and I don't know how they think they can meet when our current guidelines are for groups of five or fewer people. They just sent out an urgent call for volunteers to work at the camps. I am sitting this one out. 

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38 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

 

https://fox4kc.com/news/covid-19-infects-dozens-of-campers-workers-at-missouri-summer-camp/ : this mentions that those affected at the Missouri camp were at the K-2 camp.

 

 In case this confused anyone else, K-2 is the name of the camp, not the ages of the kids. It's a camp for 13 to 18 year olds.

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34 minutes ago, mellifera33 said:

I don't understand how anyone thinks summer camps are a great idea. I'm feeling annoyed that an organization with which I volunteer is planning on holding day camps later in the summer. Our county numbers are rising steadily, and I don't know how they think they can meet when our current guidelines are for groups of five or fewer people. They just sent out an urgent call for volunteers to work at the camps. I am sitting this one out. 

I don't know that anyone thinks they are a great idea, but when I was a kid, my parents used them for daycare when I was out of school.

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The thing is, with accurate rapid testing, we *could* make them relatively safe.  

We aren't sending our kids to camps this summer, but a number of my friends are. Of course, they are also clamoring to have their kids back in the classroom full time.

 

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2 hours ago, prairiewindmomma said:

We don't know whether the under 10s are spreading or not because we aren't doing wide spread testing. What we do know is that under 10s are less likely to be symptomatic.  For all we know they ARE becoming covid-positive and ARE spreading, but because they aren't becoming ill they aren't becoming tested.  

I'm still following the local to me childcare outbreak story.  Kids tested positive, but it was their parents and childcare staff that became ill enough to trigger concern and testing and contact tracing.  There was clearly spread through the facility.  Similarly, the camp outbreak in Missouri (82 positive so far) seems to suggest that kids get covid and spread it.

 

Yes, it eventually will get to their parents and childcare staff. We aren't seeing that even though childcare has remained open this whole time. I could change my mind on this one crazy fast, but so far I'm not seeing these young ones spreading covid. Do you have a link to the story at the childcare center near you? And the camp outbreak in Missouri is in older kids, right?

 

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59 minutes ago, TracyP said:

Yes, it eventually will get to their parents and childcare staff. We aren't seeing that even though childcare has remained open this whole time. I could change my mind on this one crazy fast, but so far I'm not seeing these young ones spreading covid. Do you have a link to the story at the childcare center near you? And the camp outbreak in Missouri is in older kids, right?

 

The problem is, we can't see what we don't look for. And we are not looking. We aren't doing testing, etc. So we dont know if they are not spreading it, or if they are, but are not symptomatic themselves. There is a huge difference, regarding how to handle this going forward, and we have't looked because, in my opinion, a lot of people don't really want the answers (not you, people in government, etc). They'd rather pretend it is safe than test that theory and maybe be wrong. 

As I've said, if a kid gives it to a classmate, and that class mate doesn't have significant symptoms and is never tested, but gives it to their parent who works at a call center, and it spreads through the call center, that will not be ever linked to or traced to the daycare. It would be linked to the call center. Unless they test asymptomatic kids, and staff, they don't know. 

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I have a high school friend from TX who said cases are spreading among kids in her neighborhood. She feels a large proportion of adult neighbors with it caught it from the kids. I know, I know...heard it from a friend who heard from a friend who heard it from a friend....but it seems like it’s not just a rumor. 
 

edit- took out my articles because it looks like similar ones were already shared.

 

Edited by Paige
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17 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

The problem is, we can't see what we don't look for. And we are not looking. We aren't doing testing, etc. So we dont know if they are not spreading it, or if they are, but are not symptomatic themselves. There is a huge difference, regarding how to handle this going forward, and we have't looked because, in my opinion, a lot of people don't really want the answers (not you, people in government, etc). They'd rather pretend it is safe than test that theory and maybe be wrong. 

As I've said, if a kid gives it to a classmate, and that class mate doesn't have significant symptoms and is never tested, but gives it to their parent who works at a call center, and it spreads through the call center, that will not be ever linked to or traced to the daycare. It would be linked to the call center. Unless they test asymptomatic kids, and staff, they don't know. 

Right, I'm thinking the same thing. I'd like to see more testing to help get a clear answer. Until then, we have spent the last 4 months with tens of thousands of childcare centers open with no large outbreaks. Yet middle school and older kids start congregating at parties and camps and we see outbreaks within weeks. Not because we are looking for it and not because teenagers get horribly sick from covid, it just spreads and becomes obvious. 

Also, I'm not convinced that some states aren't looking for covid in childcare centers. My state was at the beginning of the outbreak. They talked about it alot then, saying they were not seeing spread in those settings. I haven't heard anything since early May, so I don't want to put words in anybody's mouth. At one point, though, they were watching this.

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3 hours ago, TracyP said:

Yes, it eventually will get to their parents and childcare staff. We aren't seeing that even though childcare has remained open this whole time. I could change my mind on this one crazy fast, but so far I'm not seeing these young ones spreading covid. Do you have a link to the story at the childcare center near you? And the camp outbreak in Missouri is in older kids, right?

 

Yup, let me pm that to you.

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One of our local private schools is hosting a prom. I don't understand. It's in a county that has rising cases, hospitalizations and deaths.  I can't say anything online or I will be attacked for ruining their fun. It just seems so risky to me. 

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This is a summary report from UW about the reopening of schools which assesses the models and protocols followed by various countries and what conclusions could be drawn from the data regarding the effectiveness of those models and transmission among students.
https://globalhealth.washington.edu/sites/default/files/COVID-19 Schools Summary (2).pdf?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTW1ZNU5HRmxPR0l5TXpreiIsInQiOiJcL2ZDNlZnaE9vVzEzMUxjU0kzXC81M0psYWJrYzRYTUxFcVlQSzRKOTRvRTVlNEhZSHFVU2NxQUpcL2RZZHBuME9xMHhKazJudkVuN1NQWXdiTVRPRmlcL1N3ZU9iUUt1XC9mSVwvU25FaVBkQzNqYlJrVitsekZ6VWtLM0dPVWFGdEVBNiJ9&fbclid=IwAR031AwV2uomI4Iyi1ReA_ibfEzoOTUZny0TFQHI_67EkwBRZH3aAtjyBHY

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School reopening is going to fail. This is all a lot of magical thinking that maybe, somehow, it will be ok.  The only evidence I've seen about kids and school is that they don't spread covid as much as adults.  Not that they don't spread it at all, but that they don't spread it as much.  

All it takes is one person to start an outbreak.  Kids don't live in a vacuum away from adults, nor do they attend school or camp in a vacuum. There are teachers, secretaries, lunch ladies, janitors, bus drivers that will all be exposed, who will then bring Covid home to their families and communities.   

I have no idea what the solution to this mess is.  I know people have to work and I know that people need childcare, but really, really needing work and childcare won't keep Covid from showing up in the schools.  Mentally prepare yourself for the coming disaster.  If you have the means to keep your kids home, I would recommend doing that, so at least there are a few less vectors of Covid. 

Edited by MissLemon
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Vic cases include aged care and health care workers.

i actually met up with friends at a playground today.  First time since before the pandemic.  However it was really crowded and my kids weren’t over comfy.  I’m kind of comfy given the low numbers in the state but apparently there was a mad rush from vic to get over the border last night before the hard closure.  So I’m feeling slightly less comfy.  I had planned to try to organise a catch up for youngest next week but I’m back to rethinking it.

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61,000 cases for US yesterday.  Second day of slightly higher deaths (890).  World has passed 12,000,000 cases.

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I have gotten hooked on this virology podcast that 8FilltheHeart linked yesterday. I was listening to another episode this morning and found a couple things interesting.

The reinfection debate is still very open. I think we all knew that, and it does seem (anecdotally) that the second time is worse than the first. This too is probably not surprising, for one you might not be recovered from the first bout. Secondly, other viruses like dengue fever work this way. The part that got me was the question this raises for vaccines. There is the possibility that the vaccine could introduce the virus thereby increasing the risk of severe infections, like the dengue fever vaccine. They stressed that it is too soon to worry so I'm going to try not to, but ugh that'd be awful.

Then to schools and kids... studies are mixed with some showing increased viral load by age but most showing no significant difference. They discussed what this means in light of the fact that schools (where open) and childcare centers have not been a major source of spread at any time during this pandemic. Until we get a definitive answer on if kids spread covid at a lower rate than adults, they propose that the precautions put in place do work. That in itself is very good news. They suggest that opening schools seems low risk if precautions are taken and testing is widely available. They were less than optimistic about whether the country would make these things a priority. Some states of course will, others likely will not.

 

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not an actual study but anecdotal reports linking post Covid recovery to depression and possibly abnormal menstruation.  Will be interesting to know if this is a common experience.  It would make sense to have some level of depression especially for those early in the pandemic where the outcomes were so unknown (higher fear levels) and there could be some logic to a disease that’s affecting blood vessels and causing clotting causing issues with cycles for some.

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1 hour ago, TracyP said:

I have gotten hooked on this virology podcast that 8FilltheHeart linked yesterday. I was listening to another episode this morning and found a couple things interesting.

The reinfection debate is still very open. I think we all knew that, and it does seem (anecdotally) that the second time is worse than the first. This too is probably not surprising, for one you might not be recovered from the first bout. Secondly, other viruses like dengue fever work this way. The part that got me was the question this raises for vaccines. There is the possibility that the vaccine could introduce the virus thereby increasing the risk of severe infections, like the dengue fever vaccine. They stressed that it is too soon to worry so I'm going to try not to, but ugh that'd be awful.

Then to schools and kids... studies are mixed with some showing increased viral load by age but most showing no significant difference. They discussed what this means in light of the fact that schools (where open) and childcare centers have not been a major source of spread at any time during this pandemic. Until we get a definitive answer on if kids spread covid at a lower rate than adults, they propose that the precautions put in place do work. That in itself is very good news. They suggest that opening schools seems low risk if precautions are taken and testing is widely available. They were less than optimistic about whether the country would make these things a priority. Some states of course will, others likely will not.

 

 

I’m lurking on some science forums where virologists, including Dengue experts, have been discussing this for awhile. They are not seeing antibody dependent enhancement (ADE) with the SARS2 virus. ADE was definitely a huge initial concern, though, because then it would be like Dengue. If you have sources that say it has ADE, I’d be interested in reading them.

On a positive note, the Pfizer vaccine is looking good. They’ll be moving on to Phase 3 pretty soon. They are making doses at risk.

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2 hours ago, TracyP said:

I have gotten hooked on this virology podcast that 8FilltheHeart linked yesterday. I was listening to another episode this morning and found a couple things interesting.

 

 

Thanks for this link!

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2 hours ago, BeachGal said:

 

I’m lurking on some science forums where virologists, including Dengue experts, have been discussing this for awhile. They are not seeing antibody dependent enhancement (ADE) with the SARS2 virus. ADE was definitely a huge initial concern, though, because then it would be like Dengue. If you have sources that say it has ADE, I’d be interested in reading them.

On a positive note, the Pfizer vaccine is looking good. They’ll be moving on to Phase 3 pretty soon. They are making doses at risk.

The only sources I can find say that it is too soon to tell. This one discusses the possibility of ADE with covid. It says it will take until fall to get a better picture. This is new to me so I'm learning as I go, but it sounds like even if they did see ADE with reinfections it doesn't mean you necessarily would with vaccines. And we don't even know for sure if these are reinfections, it could be a very extended progression of the disease. The doctors in the podcast were emphasizing the need to take time to watch for this possibility as we develop a vaccine.

Do you have any sources that rule this out? (I feel like this sounds snarky... not my intent. 😋 This is new to me and I'd like to understand it better. Plus I'd love to see this possibility ruled out!)

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1 hour ago, TracyP said:

The only sources I can find say that it is too soon to tell. This one discusses the possibility of ADE with covid. It says it will take until fall to get a better picture. This is new to me so I'm learning as I go, but it sounds like even if they did see ADE with reinfections it doesn't mean you necessarily would with vaccines. And we don't even know for sure if these are reinfections, it could be a very extended progression of the disease. The doctors in the podcast were emphasizing the need to take time to watch for this possibility as we develop a vaccine.

Do you have any sources that rule this out? (I feel like this sounds snarky... not my intent. 😋 This is new to me and I'd like to understand it better. Plus I'd love to see this possibility ruled out!)

 

Derek Lowe has a blog that you might like. Here’s an older entry from May where he discusses a paper from the LaJolla Institute for Immunology, UNC, UCSD, and Mt. Sinai that mentions among other things, that ADE is likely not going to be a problem. He’s written more in later posts, iirc.

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/05/15/good-news-on-the-human-immune-response-to-the-coronavirus

Quote

 

So overall, this paper makes the prospects for a vaccine look good: there is indeed a robust response by the adaptive immune system, to several coronavirus proteins. And vaccine developers will want to think about adding in some of the other antigens mentioned in this paper, in addition to the Spike antigens that have been the focus thus far. It seems fair to say, though, that the first wave of vaccines will likely be Spike-o-centric, and later vaccines might have these other antigens included in the mix. But it also seems that Spike-protein-targeted vaccines should be pretty effective, so that’s good. The other good news is that this team looked for the signs of an antibody-dependent-enhancement response, which would be bad news, and did not find evidence of it in the recovering patients (I didn’t go into these details, but wanted to mention that finding, which is quite reassuring). And it also looks like the prospects for (reasonably) lasting immunity after infection (or after vaccination) are good. This, from what I can see, is just the sort of response that you’d want to see for that to be the case. Clinical data will be the real decider on that, but there’s no reason so far to think that a person won’t have such immunity if they fit this profile.

 

 

The comments are worth reading, too.

Quote

 

Immunologist says:

16 May, 2020 at 8:41 am

There is no good evidence of ADE for coronaviruses in humans, including in all the serological studies so far with COVID-19. Presence of antibodies so far has not been linked with increased disease, viral burden, or risk of re-infection. Multiple animal models (mouse and monkey) have shown protection from re-infection and no ADE with vaccination strategies that induced potent neutralizing antibody titers (https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.06.081497v1.full, https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.046375v1.full). The likely risk of ADE from a good vaccine is next to nothing and far outweighed by the potential protective benefits.

In the citations to the wikipedia article you linked, many of the animal models showed that antibody responses were protective in reducing viral infection, even in the models where vaccinated animals showed increased inflammation – so the antibodies protected from the virus. In the rabbit model of MERS, presence of non-neutralizing antibodies increased inflammation without protection, but presence of neutralizing antibodies was protective. It’s also worth noting that in many of those animal studies, the disease course was not lethal – animals weren’t dying of the coronavirus infections, while we know that MERS and SARS are. highly lethal in humans. This makes a comparison of the risk-benefit difficult. So, as long as a vaccine induces high-potency neutralizing antibodies, we would expect from all available evidence that there would be no ADE, and in fact protection from infection.

One more general note about ADE studies, and some of the original work that supported the reviews cited in the wikipedia article – in vitro ADE is very different from actual enhancement of infection in an animal (or human). Often, in vitro ADE is shown by methods that don’t reflect a valid in vivo infection pathway. For example, Fc receptors might be overexpressed on HEK293T cells and then enable enhancement of viral uptake. Fortunately, humans don’t have HEK293T cells overexpressing Fc receptors anywhere in their bodies. Macrophages and other immune cells with Fc receptors are very different from HEK293Ts, including having a suite of extra anti-viral immune sensors and effectors, because they have evolved to take up viruses coated in antibodies. Other common in vitro ADE experiments, including with macrophages, use pseudoviruses – these are often attenuated viruses that can replicate in cells, but not form infectious viral particles, so we can use them safely in the lab for infection studies. Many pseudoviruses are even formed from a different backbone (for example, VZV) that has a single protein from the virus of interest placed in – so, a MERS study might use VZV pseudoviruses expressing just the MERS spike protein. MERS and VZV replicate differently, might not be able to survive in the same cell types, and have vastly different pathways for infection – so all the pseudovirus can really tell us is now the MERS spike protein impacts uptake of the viral particle (which is useful information, but limited to just that). We specifically used pseudoviruses that we can study in the lab because they replicate in cell types we study – so ability to promote pseudovirus uptake (which some studies use to show “ADE”) doesn’t tell us anything about actual infection. All this means that productive uptake in a cell culture dish (which is often the readout of “ADE” studies) doesn’t mean there will be effective infection of macrophages through ADE in vivo. Even if there is, that is still not enough to indicate a risk of ADE in the human – are the macrophages producing virus at meaningful levels to contribute to infection? Will they be exposed at levels sufficient to infect through ADE (which is often weaker than natural infection)? If a macrophage gets infected in the lung and moves to the liver later on, does that matter if the virus can’t replicate in other cells in the liver?

ADE is an interesting and worthwhile phenomenon to be aware of. It’s a real concern with dengue virus. Dengue virus is immunologically very interesting, very challenging, and far different from the coronaviruses. It’s also the only really solid example of ADE in humans. 999 times out of 1000, ADE will not happen for a virus. The bar to say we should be genuinely concerned about ADE is high, and it has not been met by any study with SARS-CoV2 in animals or humans. Even much of the other coronavirus ADE literature is shaky, at best. Everything points to the fact that potent neutralizing antibodies are protective, with no risk of ADE, and a vaccine that elicits those will likely have protective effects. It’s critical to make sure that any vaccine does induce those potent neutralizing antibodies, in a smaller Phase 1 trial, before mass vaccination happens, but if that bar is passed, all the good evidence says we should plan on mass vaccination to prevent potentially millions of infections and deaths.

 

The reason I want to point this out is because there are some very dark, doom and gloom, life-will-never-be-the-same messages. Some people are barely hanging on and they really need to hear positive news, too.

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21 minutes ago, BeachGal said:

 

The reason I want to point this out is because there are some very dark, doom and gloom, life-will-never-be-the-same messages. Some people are barely hanging on and they really need to hear positive news, too.

I appreciate that. I have anxiety and a lot of my drive to learn more comes from the fact that in my head information = control over the situation. I definitely don't want to contribute to any doom and gloom thinking, but I'm a realist. I absolutely hate the unknown, I deal better with bad news than no news. Ok, personal tangent aside... 😉 thanks for that additional info. That does sound like the risk of ADE is low. I hope time and more information bears that out.

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Updates from aus

1 US marine who arrived in the NT last week has tested positive.

victorians are being advised to stay home as much as possible and if not wear masks (finally)

international arrivals are being halved.  I feel seriously sorry for people still stuck overseas but I guess we’re trying to manage safe quarantine effectively.

The economy is being encouraged to be flexible.  It seems like a push in the direction of deregulation which may be just a political agenda but I haven’t had time to read in depth.

queensland borders opened today except with vic.

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Percentage positive in Vic is also increasing.  Still less than 1pc but on the way up.  Meaning this isn’t purely due to more testing.

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Supposedly the ADF is assisting SAPOL with managing the south Australia border.  If anyone had me this time last year that we’d have the army keeping Victorian’s out of south Australia I would have thoughT they were insane.

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960 deaths reported for US today.  3rd day, so I’m thinking that the weird data around the weekend should be sorted by now so this might be a real trend.

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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.9news.com.au/world/coronavirus-japan-theme-parks-reopening-but-people-riding-roller-coasters-cant-scream/6b360aa3-4543-4455-b934-f1b206f60aee
 

so in Japan supposedly amusement park rides are reopening but no screaming is allowed.  I wonder how that works.

Japanese culture is so tuned to the "communal good" that it probably works pretty well.  Plus, Japanese girls especially already have a cultural norm of covering their mouth with their hand if screaming. 

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51 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

Japanese culture is so tuned to the "communal good" that it probably works pretty well.  Plus, Japanese girls especially already have a cultural norm of covering their mouth with their hand if screaming. 

Yes I did think if it would work anywhere it would work in Japan.  I hope so.  

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2 hours ago, 8FillTheHeart said:

Ohh, the does look promising. And my limited and rusty knowledge of biochemistry makes me hope it would help with the vascular stuff, not just respiratory. 

This stuff is why "get it as soon as possible and get it over with" isn't my plan. I'm firmly in the "hold off as long as possible in hopes of better treatments" camp! 

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3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.9news.com.au/world/coronavirus-japan-theme-parks-reopening-but-people-riding-roller-coasters-cant-scream/6b360aa3-4543-4455-b934-f1b206f60aee
 

so in Japan supposedly amusement park rides are reopening but no screaming is allowed.  I wonder how that works.

 

"Scream inside your heart" is going to be my new philosophy for dealing with crazy Facebook posts

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Feeling pretty fed up about the way things are going in the US. It’s starting to feel like watching lemmings walk off a cliff.

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3 minutes ago, TCB said:

Feeling pretty fed up about the way things are going in the US. It’s starting to feel like watching lemmings walk off a cliff.

While the lemmings yell about their constitutional right to walk off cliffs, or how cliffs aren't real anyway, or that cliffs are everywhere and we just need to learn to live with them. 

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18 minutes ago, TCB said:

Feeling pretty fed up about the way things are going in the US. It’s starting to feel like watching lemmings walk off a cliff.

I learned long ago I can only control my own behavior.

There are a few more I can influence.

That's it.

 

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3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

960 deaths reported for US today.  3rd day, so I’m thinking that the weird data around the weekend should be sorted by now so this might be a real trend.

Not necessarily. CA still has outdated data from certain counties. 

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28 minutes ago, vonfirmath said:

I learned long ago I can only control my own behavior.

There are a few more I can influence.

That's it.

 

Yeah I’ve pretty much given up trying to influence anyone else. Just sad that we can’t work together and problem solve this thing while we’re pulling in such different directions.

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19 minutes ago, Where's Toto? said:

NJ just got an order that masks are required outdoors in social situations, as well as indoors.

Sounds prudent. I think NY had that already. 

Frankly, the Northeastern states are the only states I've been even moderately happy with in terms of their policies. When I look at what they are doing, I don't feel like shouting "We already KNOW this is a bad idea!" There are probably other states who ARE being sensible, but most I've been reading about have felt like a slow motion disaster. 

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1 minute ago, TCB said:

Yeah I’ve pretty much given up trying to influence anyone else. Just sad that we can’t work together and problem solve this thing while we’re pulling in such different directions.

Yeah, I can't change anyone else's behavior, which actually just means I have a heavier burden and harder decisions to make. If we could handle this as a society, I'd feel a lot safer. 

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Re: deaths

I think it'll be next week before we know the new trend. I'm thinking it'll be at least July 14th before we see the effect of July 4th on cases, too.

I am hopeful that kids traveling for college from hard-hit states will actually bring a positive masking impact to states who are anti-mask. DD's college area is in exponential case increase now, but just announced mandatory masking. So, in just over a month when (if) the college kids (are allowed to) show up, I hope cases will have leveled off. And that the kids coming in bring in an attitude of, "wear a mask so I can stay here & study in person please!"

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18 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Sounds prudent. I think NY had that already. 

Frankly, the Northeastern states are the only states I've been even moderately happy with in terms of their policies. When I look at what they are doing, I don't feel like shouting "We already KNOW this is a bad idea!" There are probably other states who ARE being sensible, but most I've been reading about have felt like a slow motion disaster. 

I am a Connecticut Yankee in the South. (I've now lived here longer than anywhere else, but very much culturally Yankee in the Colin Woodard sense.) It's like this with a lot of stuff, just more obvious when you have a site like Worldometers to illustrate this instance.

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22 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Yeah, I can't change anyone else's behavior, which actually just means I have a heavier burden and harder decisions to make. If we could handle this as a society, I'd feel a lot safer. 

You hit the nail on the head! This is how I feel too!

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