wuhan - coronavirus

[Terabith]

4 hours ago, square_25 said:

Interesting. 

The thing I worry about with anecdotal data is confounders. Like, I got viruses for a while when my kids started preschool and then I stopped. My personal story about that is that I became immune to lots of the common colds floating around. Am I right about that? Who knows. That was my personal guess. 

Oh, it's entirely possible it's just anecdotal.  But since both myself and both kids had levels that all the medical professionals deemed "deficient," and some of us had levels that put us in danger of both rickets and (I had not heard this one before) psychosis, supplementation seemed like a no brainer.  And since we apparently have to continuously supplement to stay out of that range, I figure we might as well shoot for good/ optimal rather than just "not in danger of rickets in the next year."

[Pen]

1 minute ago, square_25 said:

Oh, I wouldn't even be surprised if you're right!! The reason one worries about anecdotal data isn't that it's always wrong or anything... it's that people naturally like stories, so we tell ourselves stories. And sometimes, those stories are justified and sometimes they aren't. And when an experiment isn't repeated, we can't test the story, either, so then it remains an anecdote. 

For robust statistics, you need a lot of data points. Mind you, those data points can all be from the same person... for instance, I get cold sores, and I can absolutely give convincing testimony just from my own data that cold sores disappear MUCH quicker when I take my antiviral medications. I've never bothered to measure, but I'm pretty sure if I measured, the effect would be something like "with medication, it takes 5 days, and without it takes 14." I'd really need only like 5 cold sores before that effect was strong enough to have probability less than 5% assuming a normal distribution (which is what people mean when they say "statistically significant due to p < 5%" or whatever.) 

On the other hand, I used to use over-the-counter cold sore creams, and I kinda, sorta thought they worked a little, but it wasn't a strong effect, and it could have also absolutely been the fact that I wanted them to work. And there, it's quite possible that if I took scrupulous data, I would have realized that the averages with and without the cream are practically identical and it was only my motivated reasoning that made me feel like they worked.

So when I say I distrust anecdotal evidence, I distrust my own as much as anyone's, lol. As I said, people like stories. 

I'd guess you're probably right that Vitamin D helped you guys out, since you were in the "obviously deficient" range!! I'd just be curious to see repeated experiments with a good number of data points. And again, those data points CAN be the same people over and over again 😉 . 

 

Not all knowledge comes from statistics.

 

[Pen]

20 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I agree that the spikes are regional 🙂 . I just like to keep track of how the country is doing as a whole. I think if NY could close borders, it'd be fine at this point, given the number of contact tracers and the amount of testing. However, since we can't, I like to know what's happening elsewhere. 

5 figures of tests doesn't do very much when you're running a million a day. I saw a very minor blip in the "7 day positivity average," but it's not like it drives it from 5% to 20%. Right now, positivity is low, which is good. 

 

All scientific knowledge comes from repeatable experiments. That's what science is. Statistics is just a specific way of examining the data. 

If you can't repeat your result, it's not science. Period. 

 

Sure. When teaching about “what is scientific method” I taught that sort of motto too.  Though science is possibly wider than “scientific method.”  And is absolutely wider than RCTs .  

 

 

We have lots of ways of gaining knowledge. 

 

Even within “science” there are multiple routes.

Electron microscopes for example can reveal things in different ways than an RCT.  

 

Most of what we know about the immune system and metabolic pathways was not learned via RCTs. 

 

 

I know, I know... for  a statistics person all the world is merely data points 🙃 like a  Workman with only a Hammer for whom all fasteners are nails - or vice versa  😁

 

Or how do the jokes go where 3 people go out to shoot at a target ... and the statistician who hits 10 feet to the right of the target on his first shot and 10 feet to the left on his second shot declares that on average he got two perfect bullseyes 🤣

 

 

 

 

Edited September 22, 2020 by Pen

[frogger]

5 hours ago, Bambam said:

Interesting theory re masking and exposure to viral load

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2026913

Though I've seen this before it does make me wonder if it's more likely my kids will come home asympotomatic and shed all over my husband and me since we don't wear masks at home. 

 

A good reason to keep air filters going this winter and be thankful for a drafty house. 😂

[ElizabethB]

2 hours ago, square_25 said:

Oh, I wouldn't even be surprised if you're right!! The reason one worries about anecdotal data isn't that it's always wrong or anything... it's that people naturally like stories, so we tell ourselves stories. And sometimes, those stories are justified and sometimes they aren't. And when an experiment isn't repeated, we can't test the story, either, so then it remains an anecdote. 

For robust statistics, you need a lot of data points. Mind you, those data points can all be from the same person... for instance, I get cold sores, and I can absolutely give convincing testimony just from my own data that cold sores disappear MUCH quicker when I take my antiviral medications. I've never bothered to measure, but I'm pretty sure if I measured, the effect would be something like "with medication, it takes 5 days, and without it takes 14." I'd really need only like 5 cold sores before that effect was strong enough to have probability less than 5% assuming a normal distribution (which is what people mean when they say "statistically significant due to p < 5%" or whatever.) 

On the other hand, I used to use over-the-counter cold sore creams, and I kinda, sorta thought they worked a little, but it wasn't a strong effect, and it could have also absolutely been the fact that I wanted them to work. And there, it's quite possible that if I took scrupulous data, I would have realized that the averages with and without the cream are practically identical and it was only my motivated reasoning that made me feel like they worked.

So when I say I distrust anecdotal evidence, I distrust my own as much as anyone's, lol. As I said, people like stories. 

I'd guess you're probably right that Vitamin D helped you guys out, since you were in the "obviously deficient" range!! I'd just be curious to see repeated experiments with a good number of data points. And again, those data points CAN be the same people over and over again 😉 . 

Vitamin D as a preventive for other respiratory diseases: 

25 eligible randomised controlled trials (total 11 321 participants, aged 0 to 95 years) were identified. IPD were obtained for 10 933 (96.6%) participants. Vitamin D supplementation reduced the risk of acute respiratory tract infection among all participants (adjusted odds ratio 0.88, 95% confidence interval 0.81 to 0.96; 

https://www.bmj.com/content/356/bmj.i6583

[ktgrok]

19 hours ago, EmseB said:

Is positivity still going down in places that have opened for quite awhile? I thought at least one of the southern states (GA? AL?) has had schools open for quite awhile. It seems a lot of states have maintained declining positivity with indoor dining and such opened up?

We are at a plateua as far as I can tell, with our wonky data. 

19 hours ago, kdsuomi said:

According to Covid Act Now, which seems to be okish state positivity wise, TX, GA, and FL have all seen declines, but they're still not to the level that CA is. 

Our decline was really before schools opened up. We spiked when indoor dining an bars opened up, then after the bigger counties started mandating masks (there is still no statewide mandate) it gradually went down, lowest was around when school was starting. 

 

[Pen]

28 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Quite a small effect, though. Going to 9/10ths of the original chance of getting an acute respiratory infection is nothing to write home about. 

I generally don't love meta-analyses, either... if I have the chance, I should look at the actual papers they are using. When I was trying to figure out effects of various pregnancy interventions, they'd lump together experiments made in Africa with experiments made in Canada, which really raised my eyebrows... those weren't comparable! 

 

How it is looked at may depend a lot on one’s life circumstances.

My son is in public school now.  Even though our state has pretty good metrics and most people are following masking pretty well (though one teacher had mask pulled down on chin when I was there last week), it certainly increases potential risks.  As well, some of the families have college / university students, so in a sense there is exposure indirectly to thousands of people some of whom are in party-hearty mode. 

I use masks in public. But I am not realistically able to have inside the home mask wearing and distancing 24/7 for the next 9 months.  And we have a very small home with a single bathroom.

 I don’t expect vitamin D optimization alone to be fully protective, but from what I know about Vitamin D, and my own past experiences with it, I do expect an optimized level and dosing method  to help. Along with other things.  Even if it does not “prevent” illness, I do expect it to help with less severity of illness. 

I would far rather be (and have my family be) observationally and empirically alive and ideally healthy, than to be perfectly RCT based dead or in ICU, or, and especially on top of other health issues I already have where I am probably basically already a long hauler from a prior illness, to be a CV19 “long hauler.”

Something easy, inexpensive, and low risk that might help, and might cumulatively along with other things help quite a bit,  is very worthwhile to me.   And for me, Vitamin D is even, yes,  “something to write home about” or at least email about to my own family in other places, many of whom cannot isolate for various reasons.   I think for @ElizabethB Vitamin D has also been “something to write home about”. 

 

I was an early adopter of both masks and higher D intake and also some other things (which I’ll avoid mentioning to not get into side trails) on the might help/low risks basis.  

 

Far different than u, I am sure, I even would rather be personally well due to a personal psychological positive “placebo effect” than to be sick based on averages affecting other people on an RCT. 

 

I realize that we have radically different experiences, different ways of looking at the world, and health, and like many others here on WTM have to “agree to disagree.” 

[Jean in Newcastle]

I am pro vitamin D for general health reasons.  I was severely deficient in vitamin D in the past and supplementation helped me a lot with my chronic illness symptoms.  If it helps me be a little bit less likely to get severe COVID that's a win for me.  But I don't see it as a preventative as such.  Avoiding situations where I am more likely to be around the virus as well as doing things to lessen viral load if I do come in contact with it is more on my "preventative" list.  So for me, the big three are masking, social distancing and limiting group sizes especially indoors. 

Re. dengue fever.  Isn't the range for this mostly in tropical and subtropical areas?  Areas where I suspect a large number of people spend a large amount of time outside?  I wonder if that's more to do with why those areas haven't seen as  huge a problem with COVID19.  Just musing here. . .  

[Terabith]

Our local numbers are super high right now.  We actually have tied for records.  

[mathnerd]

The US surpassed 200,000 deaths today with 3 states showing an increase in cases (Labor Day festivities contributing, perhaps?). Apparently the death toll is just the tip of the iceberg according to NBC news.

[Terabith]

53 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

The US surpassed 200,000 deaths today with 3 states showing an increase in cases (Labor Day festivities contributing, perhaps?). Apparently the death toll is just the tip of the iceberg according to NBC news.

Yeah, everyone here is congratulating themselves that school opening is going well, but....cases are at the highest levels they've ever been; there have been a lot of cases in schools, but they aren't announcing anything other "case in school," not classroom, since the whole "within six feet for 15 consecutive minutes" is the thresh hold, and very few schools are actually open.  So to me, reopening is NOT going well at all.  

[Ausmumof3]

15 cases and 5 deaths for Vic today.

[Pen]

1 hour ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I am pro vitamin D for general health reasons.  I was severely deficient in vitamin D in the past and supplementation helped me a lot with my chronic illness symptoms.  If it helps me be a little bit less likely to get severe COVID that's a win for me.  But I don't see it as a preventative as such.  Avoiding situations where I am more likely to be around the virus as well as doing things to lessen viral load if I do come in contact with it is more on my "preventative" list.  So for me, the big three are masking, social distancing and limiting group sizes especially indoors. 

 

I Agree. 

 

1 hour ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

Re. dengue fever.  Isn't the range for this mostly in tropical and subtropical areas?  Areas where I suspect a large number of people spend a large amount of time outside?  I wonder if that's more to do with why those areas haven't seen as  huge a problem with COVID19.  Just musing here. . .  

 

I think it was more specific than that—like sub areas geographically with large DF outbreak had less CV19.  And apparently more immune reaction to CV19 possibly from prior DF exposure.

Even if in comparison to another part of Brazil with out of doors time, (though I expect that modern life may have changed that even in tropics of South America just as it turns out that people in Florida may actually be indoors a lot, not out) people from recent DF outbreak seem to be less susceptible. ( But there are a number of factors that may also be relevant, including not HCQ for DF itself, but treatments in those areas for malaria (not necessarily HCQ nowadays), Ivermectin for parasites, more susceptible population already killed off by the DF, Natural soil zinc levels...  etc etc) 

 

Apparently significantly Outdoors life has not prevented some deaths in Amazonian indigenous people however, even in young people. 

 

 

A bit similar to the DF cross immunity issue, There are also some speculations that exposure to animals who have had other coronaviruses may give some people a little bit of immunity benefit.

 

It is more of a surprise for a possible cross immunity to be related to a different category of virus however. 

 

Anyway, unlike vitamin D which is in my control to take or not take, DF possible cross immunity is very interesting, but not at all within my sphere of influence. 

I try to spend more time and energy on what is within my own sphere of influence. 

[Pen]

 

How is Sweden doing?

[ElizabethB]

15 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

How is Sweden doing?

So far, so good lately, they don't seem to be experiencing the 2nd wave that it looks like Norway and Denmark and perhaps Finland are starting to see.

[mathnerd]

60% of businesses closed in the US due to the pandemic are permanent closures.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/16/yelp-data-shows-60percent-of-business-closures-due-to-the-coronavirus-pandemic-are-now-permanent.html

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/16/business/yelp-coronavirus-closures/index.html

Most affected are: Mexican restaurants, breakfast and brunch spots, burger or sandwich shops or eateries that focus on dessert. 

 

[lewelma]

58 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

15 cases and 5 deaths for Vic today.

Almost there!  15 cases is great given where you had gotten to.  And the deaths, well those are from infection transmission from at least 4 weeks ago.  

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, lewelma said:

Almost there!  15 cases is great given where you had gotten to.  And the deaths, well those are from infection transmission from at least 4 weeks ago.  

Yes!  I think this is what WHO officials and others have been saying all along.  This is a nasty virus but it’s also controllable with effective public health measures.  But convincing governments to put the focus there seems to have been hard.

[Not_a_Number]

Hello! I'm the local statistics addict who's had to have her account deleted. (If you're wondering where all of that person's posts went...) PM me if you want to know the story, but I thought I'd come back to this thread. 

And don't say my old name, lol, because I'd like not to have the accounts linked through Googling. 

[Melissa in Australia]

2 hours ago, Pen said:

 

How is Sweden doing?

I just read on the news that their numbers are starting to rise. Apparently they are currently discussing the need to bring in some restrictions 

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/09/22/fda-covid-vaccine-approval-standard/#click=https://t.co/tMN9oywJpu

“Under it, the FDA would ask manufacturers seeking an emergency authorization — a far quicker process than a formal approval — to follow participants in late-stage clinical trials for a median of at least two months, starting after they receive a second vaccine shot, according to two people familiar with the situation who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss information before it is made public.

As a sign the vaccine works, the agency also is likely to look for at least five severe cases of covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, in the placebo group for each trial, as well as some cases of the disease in older people.”

FDA are trying to tighten the safety standards around an EUA for a vaccine.  Honestly I’m kind of shocked that these weren’t already in place.  The requirements currently to prove safety and efficacy seem much lower than I would have expected.

[Ausmumof3]

Note the above article does have a definitely political slant however the majority of the actual info is in the paragraph I quoted above.  I think that’s the important bit to know.

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-09-22/sweden-could-introduce-restrictions-in-stockholm-after-uptick?__twitter_impression=true
 

re Sweden

“Stockholm has seen a clear increase recently, across all age groups,” chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said on a press conference. “We are discussing with Stockholm whether we need some additional possibility to take measures to reduce transmission.”

thanks @Melissa in Australia I had missed that 

[Ausmumof3]

https://amp.abc.net.au/article/12688384?__twitter_impression=true
 

there’s some concern by experts that Covid may lead to an increase in Parkinson’s.  Apparently there was a tripling in the rate of Parkinson’s after the Spanish flu epidemic.  The loss of smell and taste is apparently the concern here.  They aren’t suggesting panic but they are suggesting getting and early screening program to monitor.  

"Parkinson's disease is a complex illness, but one of the causes is inflammation, and the virus helps to drive that inflammation," he said.

"Once the inflammation gets into the brain, it starts a cascade of events which can ultimately lead to Parkinson's disease.

I have to admit I wonder how they are linking the Parkinson’s outbreak to the Spanish flu and not the effects of world war 1 and other historical changes around the same time but I haven’t seen the original article just this news report and heard a little about it on the Coronacast podcast.

 

 

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.journalofparkinsonsdisease.com/neurological-consequences-covid-19-“silent-wave”
 

looks like this is the original report which is much clearer.  

[Not_a_Number]

9 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I have to admit I wonder how they are linking the Parkinson’s outbreak to the Spanish flu and not the effects of world war 1 and other historical changes around the same time but I haven’t seen the original article just this news report and heard a little about it on the Coronacast podcast.

Yeah, I don't think they really know this. I was reading the Oliver Sacks book about the "sleeping sickness" that led to Parkinson's eventually, and they weren't sure that was connected to the flu last I checked. That was a hypothesis, though. 

[BeachGal]

Results from one of the Italian ozone studies (it’s technically oxygen-ozone or O2-O3 therapy but is often just called ozone therapy).

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/343525897_Oxygen-ozone_O2-O3_immunoceutical_therapy_for_patients_with_COVID-19_Preliminary_evidence_reported

Quote

Objective This study evaluated the potential efficacy of a novel approach to treat COVID-19 patients, using an oxygen-ozone (O2-O3) mixture, via a process called Oxygen-Ozone- Immunoceutical Therapy. The methodology met the criteria of a novel, promising approach to treat successfully elderly COVID-19 patients, particularly when hospitalized in intensive care units (ICUs) Experimental design: We investigated the therapeutic effect of 4 cycles of O2-O3 in 50 hospitalized COVID-19 subjects suffering from acute respiratory disease syndrome (ARDS), aged more than 60 years, all males and undergoing forced mechanical ventilation in ICUs. Results Following O2-O3 treatment a significant improvement in inflammation and oxygenation indexes occurred rapidly and within the first 9 days after the treatment, despite the expected 14-20 days. A significant reduction of inflammatory and thromboembolic markers (CRP, IL-6, D-dimer) was observed. Furthermore, amelioration in the major respiratory indexes, such as respiratory and gas exchange markers (SatO2%, PaO2/FiO2 ratio), was reported. Conclusion Our results show that O2-O3 treatment would be a promising therapy for COVID-19 patients. It leads patients to a fast recovery from ARDS via the improvement of major respiratory indexes and blood gas parameters, following a relatively short time of dispensed forced ventilation (about one to two weeks). This study may encourage the scientific community to further investigate and evaluate the proposed method for the treatment of COVID-19 patients.

Same paper but more detailed info here.

Patients were male, over 60 and in ICU. They gave them four, spaced out major autohemotherapies (MAH) and saw rapid improvement. They’re doing these in many hospitals in Italy now so maybe we’ll hear even more info soon. Cheap, easy to administer, no bad side effects.

Seeing similar results in other countries.

[Pen]

 

@Plum the loss of smell issue in Parkinson’s article made me wonder if your husband is still doing better.  

Also a question— were he and people he likely caught CV19 from masked ? 

 

[BeachGal]

I don’t know if this has been sorted out yet, but in countries that see a lot of dengue fever, people were getting false-positive results from rapid serological testing for dengue, but were later confirmed to actually have Covid.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7128937/

*****

Takeda in Japan thinks their vaccine will prevent dengue fever, which will be seriously impressive if it does.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/takeda-s-dengue-vaccine-efficacy-slips-between-12-and-18-month-analyses

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, Plum said:

Oh dear. He already had some shaky hands before from years of working screwdrivers. Now when he grabs a big cup, his grip strength is so bad he hand gets shaky. 
 

His smell and taste still hasn’t returned completely. He can smell or taste certain things 30-50% but still lack all sense of smell and taste for everything else. Cinnamon seems to be something he can smell and taste, same with peanut butter, but he can’t taste his toothpaste at all. He smelled the hospital soap a little bit the other day and that is strong stuff.  He wonders if it isn’t his brain filling in blanks, especially after reading this article. 

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/why-covid-19-patients-are-suffering-distorted-and-phantom-smells-180975826/

Before covid he would randomly smell cigarette smoke or burning wood when there was no reason. It turns out there’s a name for that, phantosmia. 

Remember that coworker early on that said certain foods tasted like garbage? That’s parosmia. 

“Cincinnati resident Nick Roosa shares the same triggers. He started a Facebook Covid-19 smell loss support group after he lost his sense of smell in March. He began suffering from parosmia about two months ago and says, “any food cooked with vegetable oil such as tortilla chips, French fries, chicken wings, tater tots—basically a typical American restaurant's appetizer menu—has a good chance of triggering these smell distortions.”

——

At the time, they only masked in large meetings and public spaces. The people that work in his shop didn’t mask when on the shop but he also has a separate office in the back. Now everyone masks up all day. But dh has a long beard so I made him a mask that is made out of good mask material but hangs on his face sort of like a  bandana so that it doesn’t mess with his beard so it’s not that tight fitted or anything. 

 

I don’t think it was very much confirmed just that it’s being raised as a possibility to look out for.  However if you are worried at all it sounds (from the journal article) like there’s Some therapies that can be very helpful if caught early enough so worth getting screened for if you have any concerns. 

[Pen]

1 hour ago, Plum said:

Oh dear. He already had some shaky hands before from years of working screwdrivers. Now when he grabs a big cup, his grip strength is so bad he hand gets shaky. 
 

His smell and taste still hasn’t returned completely. He can smell or taste certain things 30-50% but still lack all sense of smell and taste for everything else. Cinnamon seems to be something he can smell and taste, same with peanut butter, but he can’t taste his toothpaste at all. He smelled the hospital soap a little bit the other day and that is strong stuff.  He wonders if it isn’t his brain filling in blanks, especially after reading this article. 

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/why-covid-19-patients-are-suffering-distorted-and-phantom-smells-180975826/

Before covid he would randomly smell cigarette smoke or burning wood when there was no reason. It turns out there’s a name for that, phantosmia. 

Remember that coworker early on that said certain foods tasted like garbage? That’s parosmia. 

“Cincinnati resident Nick Roosa shares the same triggers. He started a Facebook Covid-19 smell loss support group after he lost his sense of smell in March. He began suffering from parosmia about two months ago and says, “any food cooked with vegetable oil such as tortilla chips, French fries, chicken wings, tater tots—basically a typical American restaurant's appetizer menu—has a good chance of triggering these smell distortions.”

——

At the time, they only masked in large meetings and public spaces. The people that work in his shop didn’t mask when on the shop but he also has a separate office in the back. Now everyone masks up all day. But dh has a long beard so I made him a mask that is made out of good mask material but hangs on his face sort of like a  bandana so that it doesn’t mess with his beard so it’s not that tight fitted or anything. 

 

 

😞

 

Do you know what his vitamin D level was ? Or is now?

And zinc ? Etc? 

[Pen]

1 hour ago, Plum said:

No but we take multivitamins regularly and started taking additional C,D and zinc around April. 

 

I wonder if they are normal, or better yet optimal range, now. 

[Pen]

Transverse myelitis issue (AZ vaccine) and children’s immunity were discussed by Dr Been tonight.

 

Study: https://stm.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/09/21/scitranslmed.abd5487.full

 

Gross summary

 

adults have more adaptive immunity response than children  - and also along with that more problems from adaptive immune system overreactions to CV19 

 

[I think People already “knew” this—and that children tend to have stronger innate immunity as well as better innate immunity training— that it was already “known” at least in parts when I was in school decades ago, but it is more important as it is now by way of study validation (not RCT type iirc, but that’s not the be all and end all of “science”) and more specific to CV19.  Rather than a general sense about the human immune system. It has been a reason that I have favored low risk protocols, (vitamins, supplements, medicines,  ) that might improve innate immunity even if somewhat speculative or only by a low percent improvement.  ]

 

Edited September 24, 2020 by Pen

[Pen]

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/09/130930200039.htm

 

both zinc and D have speculative relationships with Parkinson’s  - and zinc , both too much and too little , may affect sense of smell.  

[Pen]

28 minutes ago, Pen said:

Transverse myelitis issue (AZ vaccine) and children’s immunity were discussed by Dr Been tonight.

https://youtu.be/ZfQdmOW9Xx8

https://youtu.be/ZfQdmOW9Xx8

Study: https://stm.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/09/21/scitranslmed.abd5487.full

 

Gross summary

 

adults have more adaptive immunity response than children  - and also along with that more problems from adaptive immune system overreactions to CV19 

 

[I think People already “knew” this—and that children tend to have stronger innate immunity as well as better innate immunity training— that it was already “known” at least in parts when I was in school decades ago, but it is more important as it is now by way of study validation (not RCT type iirc, but that’s not the be all and end all of “science”) and more specific to CV19.  Rather than a general sense about the human immune system. It has been a reason that I have favored low risk protocols, (vitamins, supplements, medicines,  ) that might improve innate immunity even if somewhat speculative or only by a low percent improvement.  ]

 

 

Link fixed: https://youtu.be/ZfQdmOW9Xx8

? 

[Ausmumof3]

14 minutes ago, Pen said:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/09/130930200039.htm

 

both zinc and D have speculative relationships with Parkinson’s  - and zinc , both too much and too little , may affect sense of smell.  

I believe zinc can also be a factor in some eating disorders?  Low level makes food taste weird 

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html
 

266,000 excess deaths in the US this year 😞 

[TCB]

This article was on the COVID-19 healthcare page about nebulized ibuprofen.

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7340056/?fbclid=IwAR2bU68aLI_IPz_RETAcpvM7_olUGmNzfL7nVpbPlhgxq5XpBbNC4w3Qub4

[Pen]

4 hours ago, TCB said:

This article was on the COVID-19 healthcare page about nebulized ibuprofen.

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7340056/?fbclid=IwAR2bU68aLI_IPz_RETAcpvM7_olUGmNzfL7nVpbPlhgxq5XpBbNC4w3Qub4

 

That’s interesting.

 

Quite a few things can be nebulized - though I am wary of indiscriminate playing around with it especially if not having a proper form.  And I think with most, as with the page about ibuprofen) very tiny amounts usually have greater effect than via oral routes (unless perhaps trying to affect stomach itself).  Afaik, Vitamin D can be nebulized and alternatively can be used topically iirc with greater availability.  Iodine.  Glutathione.   I did not know that ibuprofen has antiviral activity.  I get nausea and other GI problems from ibuprofen, so a nebulized version could be interesting if it doesn’t have problems like that.  I wonder about bleeding from ibuprofen. 

[Not_a_Number]

On 9/22/2020 at 8:00 PM, mathnerd said:

60% of businesses closed in the US due to the pandemic are permanent closures.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/16/yelp-data-shows-60percent-of-business-closures-due-to-the-coronavirus-pandemic-are-now-permanent.html

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/16/business/yelp-coronavirus-closures/index.html

Most affected are: Mexican restaurants, breakfast and brunch spots, burger or sandwich shops or eateries that focus on dessert. 

 

That's terrible 😕 . 

[Acadie]

More details on dogs in Helsinki airport sniffing out Covid with nearly 100% accuracy. Such amazing doggies! Could save testing resources, too.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/24/close-to-100-accuracy-airport-enlists-sniffer-dogs-to-test-for-covid-19

[Pen]

3 minutes ago, Acadie said:

More details on dogs in Helsinki airport sniffing out Covid with nearly 100% accuracy. Such amazing doggies! Could save testing resources, too.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/24/close-to-100-accuracy-airport-enlists-sniffer-dogs-to-test-for-covid-19

 

Yay!  Good dogs!

 I hope there are more in training in various places.    

[Ausmumof3]

13 hours ago, TCB said:

This article was on the COVID-19 healthcare page about nebulized ibuprofen.

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7340056/?fbclid=IwAR2bU68aLI_IPz_RETAcpvM7_olUGmNzfL7nVpbPlhgxq5XpBbNC4w3Qub4

This sounds very interesting.  

[Ausmumof3]

Bno

NEW: China's mainland reports 2 domestic cases of coronavirus, the first in more than a month. They work at the Port of Qingdao and handled frozen seafood imported from abroad. Both are asymptomatic.

The Qingdao Health Commission said the 2 cases were found during routine testing. The two men tested negative on September 8, handled imported seafood on September 19, and tested positive on September 24. Environmental samples were also positive.

 

[Ausmumof3]

Too Tired to read in detail but this seems like it will be important 

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/09/23/science.abd4585

“Conclusion

We report here that at least 10% of patients with life-threatening COVID-19 pneumonia have neutralizing auto-Abs against type I IFNs. With our accompanying description of patients with inborn errors of type I IFNs and life-threatening COVID-19 (18), this study highlights the crucial role of type I IFNs in protective immunity against SARS-CoV-2. These auto-Abs against type I IFNs were clinically silent until the patients were infected with SARS-CoV-2, which is a poor inducer of type I IFNs (28), suggesting that the small amounts of IFNs induced by the virus are important for protection against severe disease. The neutralizing auto-Abs against type I IFNs, like inborn errors of type I IFN production, tip the balance in favor of the virus, resulting in devastating disease, with insufficient, and even perhaps deleterious, innate and adaptive immune responses.

Our findings have direct clinical implications. First, SARS-CoV-2-infected patients can be screened to identify individuals with auto-Abs at risk of developing life-threatening pneumonia. Such patients recovering from life-threatening COVID-19 should also be excluded from donating convalescent plasma for ongoing clinical trial, or at least tested before their plasma donations are accepted (29). Second, this unexpected finding paves the way for therapeutic intervention, including plasmapheresis, monoclonal Abs depleting plasmablasts, and the specific inhibition of type I IFN-reactive B cells (30). Finally, in this patient group, early treatment with IFN-α is unlikely to be beneficial. However, treatment with injected or nebulized IFN-β may have beneficial effects, as auto-Abs against IFN-β appear to be rare in patients with auto-Abs against type I IFNs.”

 

 

 

 

[Terabith]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2020/09/23/coronavirus-may-have-mutated-to-become-more-contagious-study-finds/#7b824271365c

Covid is mutating to become more contagious.  Great.  

[Pen]

 

DrBeen video from yesterday is about boosting innate arm of the immune system. 

[Not_a_Number]

1 hour ago, Terabith said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2020/09/23/coronavirus-may-have-mutated-to-become-more-contagious-study-finds/#7b824271365c

Covid is mutating to become more contagious.  Great.  

Andrew Gelman made a REALLY intriguing point a while ago that if some percentage of people are actually natively immune to COVID for a variety of reasons (which there's some reason to believe), then COVID is actually more transmissible than we think -- we're observing transmission in an environment where there's already dampening from the immunity. 

(Not immediately relevant to your points, just reminded me.) 

[Pen]

2 hours ago, Terabith said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2020/09/23/coronavirus-may-have-mutated-to-become-more-contagious-study-finds/#7b824271365c

Covid is mutating to become more contagious.  Great.  

 

That D614G strain of virus which afaik is what the article you have linked is about and is now dominant in many places keeps getting into news headlines, or having one or another study indicating more this or more that (more contagious or more dangerous or more viral load etc)—but I am not sure that it is really new “news”. 

 

[Pen]

55 minutes ago, Plum said:

Took a look at my last blood test which was a couple of years ago and my RDW was super high due to my anemia. 😱  

"We were surprised to find that one standard test that quantifies the variation in size of red blood cells--called red cell distribution width, or RDW--was highly correlated with patient mortality, and the correlation persisted when controlling for other identified risk factors like patient age, some other lab tests, and some pre-existing illnesses," said co-author Jonathan Carlson, MD, PhD.

Patients who had RDW values above the normal range when they were admitted to the hospital had a 2.7-times higher risk of dying, with a mortality rate of 31 percent compared with 11 percent in patients with normal RDW values. Also, a subsequent increase in RDW after admission was associated with an even higher risk of dying, indicating that RDW could be tracked during hospitalization to help determine whether patients are responding to treatment or getting worse.“

https://www.technologynetworks.com/diagnostics/news/routine-blood-test-predicts-increased-mortality-risk-in-patients-with-covid-19-340761?fbclid=IwAR00stXHhedqbKOnxPPbDagBjYIf5yTacSnTZyjN1DiVfgOsduSBnEPTyUg

 

I am sure glad you didn’t catch it from your husband!!!