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28 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

30 year old dies after attending COVID party. 
 

https://apple.news/Ae8zxeRGURHiCyCchtnOOJA

I am getting all confused on who said what and where but I remember someone saying that COVID parties were a hoax. Doesn’t seem like a hoax to me. 

I posted this article about the reporting of them.

https://www.wired.com/story/covid-parties-are-not-a-thing/

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DS got home 3 hours ago!  ❤️❤️

Update-  my youngest is not only short of breath, coughing, dizzy, nausaues, and with headache-  she is also confused.  I called our doctor and talked with him and she is going to be going to the ER.

That's not a blanket right.  If my religion required human sacrifice, I can't practice it.  If my religion required sexual assault, I can't practice it. Freedom of religion isn't a blanket right

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32 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

30 year old dies after attending COVID party. 
 

https://apple.news/Ae8zxeRGURHiCyCchtnOOJA

I am getting all confused on who said what and where but I remember someone saying that COVID parties were a hoax. Doesn’t seem like a hoax to me. 

 

The film on this is a helpful quick round up of various places:

https://abcnews.go.com/US/30-year-man-dies-attending-covid-party-thinking/story?id=71731414

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19 minutes ago, EmseB said:

I posted this article about the reporting of them.

https://www.wired.com/story/covid-parties-are-not-a-thing/

Here's the thing.  If you're in a place with cases on the rise, or even holding steady in a certain # of the population, having any kind of large gathering without masks and distancing is going to become a "Covid party".  Because as was posted in another Covid thread:

22 minutes ago, kokotg said:

have people seen Georgia tech's new event planning tool? https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu ....in my county, there's a greater than 99% chance that a gathering of 500 people will have at least 1 positive person....so it's  likely that EVERY SCHOOL IN THE COUNTY will start the year with covid cases. 

and 

8 minutes ago, kokotg said:

"Only" 56% here for 25 people. That's a fairly average class size; my math teacher husband just calculated that that means there's a 1.6% chance that NO ONE in any of his 5 classes will be positive. So there's only a 98.4% chance that he and every one of his students will be exposed every day. 

So... if you get together at a party with a bunch of people during a Covid outbreak ... it has every potential to become a 'Covid party'.

You heard about the mom who sent her dd16 who had recovered from cancer to a party at their church?  She died.

 

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17 minutes ago, Matryoshka said:

Here's the thing.  If you're in a place with cases on the rise, or even holding steady in a certain # of the population, having any kind of large gathering without masks and distancing is going to become a "Covid party".  Because as was posted in another Covid thread:

and 

So... if you get together at a party with a bunch of people during a Covid outbreak ... it has every potential to become a 'Covid party'.

You heard about the mom who sent her dd16 who had recovered from cancer to a party at their church?  She died.

 

 

And I guess classes in schools also have potential to be Covid parties. 

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7 minutes ago, Pen said:

And I guess classes in schools also have potential to be Covid parties. 

Pretty much... although hopefully there will be more masking and distancing than at a party...?  Still is sounding like the less people mixing around close together,  the better...

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Saw my mother, who lives in a care home, for the first time in four months today. She's pretty cross. She didn't have her hearing aids in, so we sat two metres apart and did the 'Love Actually' marker thing. 

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1 hour ago, BookwormTo2 said:

Did anyone see or post this article (posted July 9) about 239 researchers claiming "there's significant evidence the coronavirus can persist in the air".....

https://www.cnet.com/news/coronavirus-airborne-spread-who-calls-for-more-evidence-about-covid-19-transmission/

Yes. I listened to the latest CIDRAP podcast with Dr. Osterholm. He highly respects 2 of the scientists who participated. They are rock stars in what was it? Aerodynamic biology??? Something like that. They study biological particles in the air. Osterholm has been working on how many viral particles it takes to infect a person. Their work collides, pardon the pun. Next week he plans to talk about schools. 
 

 

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South Africa is spiking horribly the last couple of days with over 10,000 cases the last two days.  India’s curve is still scarily steep.  Global cases are over 200,000 a day right now.

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If there are 15 kids in a classroom and windows cannot be opened because it is too cold and the kids are sitting spread apart for 3 hours and one kid has it, what are the chances the others will get it? I think pretty high. In three hours the air will diffuse through the whole class.

In my area they want to open schools. They acknowledge that there will be cases and that kids can get sick and die but that if one child in a class tests positive they will test all the friends. Is this really enough? They want to open schools for mental health and so parents can work. What will the mental health of kids be if they see a classmate getting sick and dying? Is it not better if we wait a few more months?

Also, I saw a doctor today acknowledge that even if kids are a symptomatic we don't know if the virus will affect them down the line.

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273 new cases in Victoria. 1 more death

Many hospitals  across Melbourne having 1 or 2 staff testing positive 

The premier also announced that only year 11 and 12 will be going back to school next week, other grades will have 1 week off then go back to school at home

Edited by Melissa in Australia
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10 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

273 new cases in Victoria. 1 more death

Many hospitals  across Melbourne having 1 or 2 staff testing positive 

The premier also announced that only year 11 and 12 will be going back to school next week, other grades will have 1 week off then go back to school at home

So sad to see how quickly this has gone from an almost non issue to multiple deaths.  Praying that we get this under control soon.

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1 hour ago, Teaching3bears said:

If there are 15 kids in a classroom and windows cannot be opened because it is too cold and the kids are sitting spread apart for 3 hours and one kid has it, what are the chances the others will get it? I think pretty high. In three hours the air will diffuse through the whole class.

In my area they want to open schools. They acknowledge that there will be cases and that kids can get sick and die but that if one child in a class tests positive they will test all the friends. Is this really enough? They want to open schools for mental health and so parents can work. What will the mental health of kids be if they see a classmate getting sick and dying? Is it not better if we wait a few more months?

Also, I saw a doctor today acknowledge that even if kids are a symptomatic we don't know if the virus will affect them down the line.

You could consider open windows with heaters going?  I know that won’t work for winter in many places but even if you got through one term it would have to help.

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18 minutes ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

The boarding school thing is nuts. Congregate living is a disaster everywhere they have tried it.

Yes and particularly with that age group!  They are at the age to be able to get and spread and also the age they mostly likely feel invincible and want to break all the rules!

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10:05 p.m.: Several 4th of July partygoers at Michigan sandbar test positive

Several people who attended a Fourth of July party at Torch Lake sandbar near Rapid City, Michigan, have tested positive for COVID-19, according to the Health Department of Northwest Michigan.

The popular hangout spot on Houghton Lake in northern Michigan had been flagged by police as problematic in a press release on July 8. Michigan State Police said it saw an increase of 26% in call volume over the previous 10 years at the so-called Torch Fest. Seven people were arrested for drunk and disorderly charges and nine were charged with operating while intoxicated.

Photos released by police showed hundreds of people and boats crowded into close quarters.

Michigan State Police
Several people tested positive for COVID-19 after attending Torch Fest at the Torch Lake sandbar near Rapid City, Mich., on July 4, 2020.Michigan State Police
torch-lake-party2-ho-mo-20200711_hpEmbed

"If you were at the Torch Lake Sandbar party over 4th of July weekend, you should monitor for signs and symptoms of COVID-19 and seek testing if symptoms should develop or if you were at high risk for exposure due to being in close proximity with others or not wearing a cloth facial covering," the health department said in a statement.

Michigan State Police

Several people tested positive for COVID-19 after attending Torch Fest at the Torch Lake sandbar near Rapid City, Mich., on July 4, 2020.Michigan State Police
 

This seems to be a case of crowded outdoor beach type environment... though maybe there was some associated indoor venues it’s not clear to me from here.

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Bno are reporting that 580 military personnel are being sent to assist with Covid care in civilian hospitals in Texas.  I can’t find another source for that right now though.

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https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.02.20145003v1
 

Pre print study claiming that the patterns of tissues infected with Covid versus the tissues suffering most damage in cases where people have died indicates that the biggest killer is immune system overreaction rather than the virus itself.  I’m probably paraphrasing that horribly but that’s what I think it’s saying.  This also explains why steroids that help moderate immune response are helping survival rates.

Edited by Ausmumof3
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https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0389-z?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=organic&utm_campaign=NGMT_USG_JC01_GL_NRJournals
 

Super interesting.  T cells in blood samples from US Patients from 2015 - 2018 show some reactivity to coronavirus.  This could be a good or bad thing.  It could mean some people have some level of immunity, it could mean that vaccines are less successful because the body might mount an inferior response based on the preexisting TCells, may be problematic if it contributes to immune system mediated disease (basically overreaction). More research required.  
 

Definitely worth a read

@Pen and anyone else following this stuff 

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3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

10:05 p.m.: Several 4th of July partygoers at Michigan sandbar test positive

Several people who attended a Fourth of July party at Torch Lake sandbar near Rapid City, Michigan, have tested positive for COVID-19, according to the Health Department of Northwest Michigan.

The popular hangout spot on Houghton Lake in northern Michigan had been flagged by police as problematic in a press release on July 8. Michigan State Police said it saw an increase of 26% in call volume over the previous 10 years at the so-called Torch Fest. Seven people were arrested for drunk and disorderly charges and nine were charged with operating while intoxicated.

Photos released by police showed hundreds of people and boats crowded into close quarters.

Michigan State Police
Several people tested positive for COVID-19 after attending Torch Fest at the Torch Lake sandbar near Rapid City, Mich., on July 4, 2020.Michigan State Police

torch-lake-party2-ho-mo-20200711_hpEmbed

"If you were at the Torch Lake Sandbar party over 4th of July weekend, you should monitor for signs and symptoms of COVID-19 and seek testing if symptoms should develop or if you were at high risk for exposure due to being in close proximity with others or not wearing a cloth facial covering," the health department said in a statement.

Michigan State Police

Several people tested positive for COVID-19 after attending Torch Fest at the Torch Lake sandbar near Rapid City, Mich., on July 4, 2020.Michigan State Police
 

This seems to be a case of crowded outdoor beach type environment... though maybe there was some associated indoor venues it’s not clear to me from here.

It seems to me like the warning from the Michigan health department is that you could have been exposed by one of these people on the 4th. Not that they believe these people were exposed on the 4th. I'm seeing it presented both ways on different news sites, but I'm leaning toward the former. Based on the typical timeline of showing symptoms and getting test results I would guess these people were already infected by the 4th. Also, I'm paraphrasing, but the health department said that since these people do not know who they were in contact with, they put this release out for everyone who was there to be on the lookout for symptoms. That again leads me to believe the thinking is that these people were potential spreaders on the 4th. 

That makes this another interesting place to watch over the next week or two. Considering we know that several infected people were in this group, unmasked, no doubt yelling it will be interesting to see if anything comes of it. I hope the health department puts this information out there.

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11 hours ago, Teaching3bears said:

If there are 15 kids in a classroom and windows cannot be opened because it is too cold and the kids are sitting spread apart for 3 hours and one kid has it, what are the chances the others will get it? I think pretty high. In three hours the air will diffuse through the whole class.

In my area they want to open schools. They acknowledge that there will be cases and that kids can get sick and die but that if one child in a class tests positive they will test all the friends. Is this really enough? They want to open schools for mental health and so parents can work. What will the mental health of kids be if they see a classmate getting sick and dying? Is it not better if we wait a few more months?

Also, I saw a doctor today acknowledge that even if kids are a symptomatic we don't know if the virus will affect them down the line.

THIS.

I don’t understand why this isn’t talked about more. We (generic we) talk about “oh, if a teacher or kid tests positive the whole class will have to quarantine for two weeks”  with this quiet assumption that they’ll just do worksheets or whatever at home during that time. But we aren’t talking about the very real suffering involved in getting sick, in having classmates hospitalized and clinging to life, in losing teachers, in kids dealing with the trauma in real time.

Staying home next year is going to suck for my teen. His mental health is in serious decline and I don’t see a way out. But if he is forced into a position where his friends and classmates are dying or irreparably harmed from this because they have to go back to school irl,  it’s going to send him over the edge. Multiply that over an entire generation of kids nationwide and the outlook is grim at best. (Don’t even argue how it’s going in other countries. Ours walks this hell almost alone).

 

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We also need to consider the effects when teachers die. Favorite teachers, beloved coaches, people with 30 years' experience, pillars of the faculty. And principals. You cannot have the principal in the hospital, the vp and office staff in quarantine, and think you're going to run school as usual. Experienced teachers will retire in droves. Education majors will not be able to do student teaching, and some will change their minds about what to do for a living.

There will be a whole constellation of outcomes of deciding that since the virus doesn't seem too terrible for kids (only a few die and a few wind up with the multi-system inflammatory system, so far), it's time to open schools.

Edited by Carolina Wren
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6 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0389-z?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=organic&utm_campaign=NGMT_USG_JC01_GL_NRJournals
 

Super interesting.  T cells in blood samples from US Patients from 2015 - 2018 show some reactivity to coronavirus.  This could be a good or bad thing.  It could mean some people have some level of immunity, it could mean that vaccines are less successful because the body might mount an inferior response based on the preexisting TCells, may be problematic if it contributes to immune system mediated disease (basically overreaction). More research required.  
 

Definitely worth a read

@Pen and anyone else following this stuff 

 

I had not seen that yet. Thank you for the link. 

 

1.  Logical response:

It is extremely interesting, but not yet enough information to derive many conclusions.

 

We don’t even know yet if there’s any correlation between the pre existing T cell memory that reacts to SARS2 and either people who tend to get more severe CV19 illness or tend to get milder cases of CV19 . 

 

 

We don’t know if the pre existing memory T cells have any ability to produce neutralizing antibodies.

It's the neutralizing antibodies that are needed to actually block a pathogen from being able to invade that is needed, whether from past exposure and development in the adaptive immune response or developed via a vaccine. Nnot just any antibody to any part of the pathogen will do. And that’s afaik why a lot of the vaccines are focusing on the spike protein, though it may be that more than just the spike needs to be targeted. 

Far more study and information is needed.

 

 

——————

 

2. Personal response:

 

Personally reading that, offhand, my immediately sense is that this isn’t necessarily good news: The pre existing T cells’ relatively low recognition of the spike protein very minimally suggests that antibodies from pre existing T cells may not be able to neutralize the virus, and could even suggest a reason why older people with probably much more lifetime history with various common cold coronaviruses might have an over reaction of immune system. I would be concerned that if one’s  immune system mounts a strong defense to a recognized invading pathogen, but without the ability to actually achieve neutralization of the pathogen, that could tend to increase an over reaction of the immune system that would cause damage (like as if the immune system has a gun and recognizes a dangerous intruder, but is only able to shoot with its bullets ricocheting back at oneself, not able to hit and mortally wound the virus intruder). 

 

 

*****My personal initial take away, pending further knowledge otherwise,  is that it’s all the more reason to use masks, physical distancing, and do what I can to support my innate immune system (such as vitamin D to support cathelicidins).  Etc. *****

 

Edited by Pen
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7 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Bno are reporting that 580 military personnel are being sent to assist with Covid care in civilian hospitals in Texas.  I can’t find another source for that right now though.

 

Federal Emergency Management sent a smaller number of medical personnel from Fort Carson Colorado to Texas a few days ago.

580 sounds like a medical ship type number, but I haven’t seen any news on that. 

Or could it represent National Guard troops mobilized for doing testing, triage etc? 

Edited by Pen
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@Ausmumof3@TCB@Pen@MEmama@Æthelthryth the Texan

University of Houston https://uh.edu/news-events/stories/july-2020/07072020ren-coronavirus-filter.php

“Researchers Create Air Filter that Can Kill the Coronavirus

Nickel Foam Filter Catches, Heats and Kills the Virus and other Pathogens

Researchers from the University of Houston, in collaboration with others, have designed a “catch and kill” air filter that can trap the virus responsible for COVID-19, killing it instantly.

Zhifeng Ren, director of the Texas Center for Superconductivity at UH, collaborated with Monzer Hourani, CEO of Medistar, a Houston-based medical real estate development firm, and other researchers to design the filter, which is described in a paper published in Materials Today Physics.

The researchers reported that virus tests at the Galveston National Laboratory found 99.8% of the novel SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, was killed in a single pass through a filter made from commercially available nickel foam heated to 200 degrees Centigrade, or about 392 degrees Fahrenheit. It also killed 99.9% of the anthrax spores in testing at the national lab, which is run by the University of Texas Medical Branch.

“This filter could be useful in airports and in airplanes, in office buildings, schools and cruise ships to stop the spread of COVID-19,” said Ren, MD Anderson Chair Professor of Physics at UH and co-corresponding author for the paper. “Its ability to help control the spread of the virus could be very useful for society.” Medistar executives are is also proposing a desk-top model, capable of purifying the air in an office worker’s immediate surroundings, he said.

Ren said the Texas Center for Superconductivity at the University of Houston (TcSUH) was approached by Medistar on March 31, as the pandemic was spreading throughout the United States, for help in developing the concept of a virus-trapping air filter.

Luo Yu of the UH Department of Physics and TcSUH along with Dr. Garrett K. Peel of Medistar and Dr. Faisal Cheema at the UH College of Medicine are co-first authors on the paper.

The researchers knew the virus can remain in the air for about three hours, meaning a filter that could remove it quickly was a viable plan. With businesses reopening, controlling the spread in air conditioned spaces was urgent.

And Medistar knew the virus can’t survive temperatures above 70 degrees Centigrade, about 158 degrees Fahrenheit, so the researchers decided to use a heated filter. By making the filter temperature far hotter – about 200 C – they were able to kill the virus almost instantly.

Ren suggested using nickel foam, saying it met several key requirements: It is porous, allowing the flow of air, and electrically conductive, which allowed it to be heated. It is also flexible.

But nickel foam has low resistivity, making it difficult to raise the temperature high enough to quickly kill the virus. The researchers solved that problem by folding the foam, connecting multiple compartments with electrical wires to increase the resistance high enough to raise the temperature as high as 250 degrees C.

By making the filter electrically heated, rather than heating it from an external source, the researchers said they minimized the amount of heat that escaped from the filter, allowing air conditioning to function with minimal strain.

A prototype was built by a local workshop and first tested at Ren’s lab for the relationship between voltage/current and temperature; it then went to the Galveston lab to be tested for its ability to kill the virus. Ren said it satisfies the requirements for conventional heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems.

“This novel biodefense indoor air protection technology offers the first-in-line prevention against environmentally mediated transmission of airborne SARS-CoV-2 and will be on the forefront of technologies available to combat the current pandemic and any future airborne biothreats in indoor environments,"  Cheema said.

Hourani and Peel have called for a phased roll-out of the device, “beginning with high-priority venues, where essential workers are at elevated risk of exposure (particularly schools, hospitals and health care facilities, as well as public transit environs such as airplanes).”

That will both improve safety for frontline workers in essential industries and allow nonessential workers to return to public work spaces, they said.”

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I’m seeing Florida reported 15,300 cases today ( they post the previous days data.) That’s bigger than NY ever was and on a Saturday (although I know they were limiting testing when NY was peaking, so it’s probably not a fair comparison.)

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/08/warning-of-serious-brain-disorders-in-people-with-mild-covid-symptoms

 

Doctors may be missing signs of serious and potentially fatal brain disorders triggered by coronavirus, as they emerge in mildly affected or recovering patients, scientists have warned.

Neurologists are on Wednesday publishing details of more than 40 UK Covid-19 patients whose complications ranged from brain inflammation and delirium to nerve damage and stroke. In some cases, the neurological problem was the patient’s first and main symptom.

The cases, published in the journal Brain, revealed a rise in a life-threatening condition called acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (Adem), as the first wave of infections swept through Britain. At UCL’s Institute of Neurology, Adem cases rose from one a month before the pandemic to two or three per week in April and May. One woman, who was 59, died of the complication.

A dozen patients had inflammation of the central nervous system, 10 had brain disease with delirium or psychosis, eight had strokes and a further eight had peripheral nerve problems, mostly diagnosed as Guillain-Barré syndrome, an immune reaction that attacks the nerves and causes paralysis. It is fatal in 5% of cases.

“We’re seeing things in the way Covid-19 affects the brain that we haven’t seen before with other viruses,” said Michael Zandi, a senior author on the study and a consultant at the institute and University College London Hospitals NHS foundation trust.

“What we’ve seen with some of these Adem patients, and in other patients, is you can have severe neurology, you can be quite sick, but actually have trivial lung disease,” he added.

“Biologically, Adem has some similarities with multiple sclerosis, but it is more severe and usually happens as a one-off. Some patients are left with long-term disability, others can make a good recovery.”

The cases add to concerns over the long-term health effects of Covid-19, which have left some patients breathless and fatigued long after they have cleared the virus, and others with numbness, weakness and memory problems.

One coronavirus patient described in the paper, a 55-year-old woman with no history of psychiatric illness, began to behave oddly the day after she was discharged from hospital.

She repeatedly put her coat on and took it off again and began to hallucinate, reporting that she saw monkeys and lions in her house. She was readmitted to hospital and gradually improved on antipsychotic medication.

Another woman, aged 47, was admitted to hospital with a headache and numbness in her right hand a week after a cough and fever came on. She later became drowsy and unresponsive and required an emergency operation to remove part of her skull to relieve pressure on her swollen brain.

“We want clinicians around the world to be alert to these complications of coronavirus,” Zandi said. He urged physicians, GPs and healthcare workers with patients with cognitive symptoms, memory problems, fatigue, numbness, or weakness, to discuss the case with neurologists.

“The message is not to put that all down to the recovery, and the psychological aspects of recovery,” he said. “The brain does appear to be involved in this illness.”

The full range of brain disorders caused by Covid-19 may not have been picked up yet, because many patients in hospitals are too sick to examine in brain scanners or with other procedures. “What we really need now is better research to look at what’s really going on in the brain,” Zandi said.

One concern is that the virus could leave a minority of the population with subtle brain damage that only becomes apparent in years to come. This may have happened in the wake of the 1918 flu pandemic, when up to a million people appeared to develop brain disease.

“It’s a concern if some hidden epidemic could occur after Covid where you’re going to see delayed effects on the brain, because there could be subtle effects on the brain and slowly things happen over the coming years, but it’s far too early for us to judge now,” Zandi said.

“We hope, obviously, that that’s not going to happen, but when you’ve got such a big pandemic affecting such a vast proportion of the population it’s something we need to be alert to.”

David Strain, a senior clinical lecturer at the University of Exeter Medical School, said that only a small number of patients appeared to experience serious neurological complications and that more work was needed to understand their prevalence.

“This is very important as we start to prepare post-Covid-19 rehabilitation programs,” he said. “We’ve already seen that some people with Covid-19 may need a long rehabilitation period, both physical rehabilitation such as exercise, and brain rehabilitation. We need to understand more about the impact of this infection on the brain.”

 

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As the parent of a PANDAS kid, the neurological stuff is frankly, terrifying. I'm guessing a form of Autoimmune Encephalitis triggered by the infection, similar to what strep and measels and some others can do. Ugh. Didn't need to read that today. 

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7 hours ago, iamonlyone said:

 

Yes.  I was confused at first thinking that the doctor was the one not masking. Once I understood that the doctor was the one who was wearing a mask and explaining why, it made sense. 

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https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity?__twitter_impression=true
 

was this the reinfection case we already talked about?  The title and tone of this is sensationalising things, but does appear to be another case of genuine reinfection.  Hoping strongly this is just a weird thing with some people’s immune systems and that it’s rare.

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23 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity?__twitter_impression=true
 

was this the reinfection case we already talked about?  The title and tone of this is sensationalising things, but does appear to be another case of genuine reinfection.  Hoping strongly this is just a weird thing with some people’s immune systems and that it’s rare.

 

 

I don’t know if it’s same as discussed before or not. But it does seem that at least some people are getting it twice.  Especially troubling is that reinfection seems like it can be worse than first time. 

 

 it doesn’t sound like it is extremely common thus far to get it twice.  OTOH it hasn’t been around very long.  

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177 cases in Vic today so a slight drop but I wouldn’t read too much into it as there’s a lot of bouncing around at the moment.  And the report times are a bit inconsistent as well.

One cluster appears to be linked to a meat works again.  There is also a cluster linked to a pub in Sydney with at least 600 people self isolation from one night and anyone there in the last eight days now being asked to self isolate.  Star casino has apparently closed temporarily as they’ve had a case as well.  The school linked outbreak is now up to 144 including family contacts of people at the school.

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@TCB

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.09.20148429v1

“Longitudinal evaluation and decline of antibody responses in SARS-CoV-2 infection

Abstract

Antibody (Ab) responses to SARS-CoV-2 can be detected in most infected individuals 10-15 days following the onset of COVID-19 symptoms. However, due to the recent emergence of this virus in the human population it is not yet known how long these Ab responses will be maintained or whether they will provide protection from re-infection. Using sequential serum samples collected up to 94 days post onset of symptoms (POS) from 65 RT-qPCR confirmed SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals, we show seroconversion in >95% of cases and neutralizing antibody (nAb) responses when sampled beyond 8 days POS. We demonstrate that the magnitude of the nAb response is dependent upon the disease severity, but this does not affect the kinetics of the nAb response. Declining nAb titres were observed during the follow up period. Whilst some individuals with high peak ID50 (>10,000) maintained titres >1,000 at >60 days POS, some with lower peak ID50 had titres approaching baseline within the follow up period. A similar decline in nAb titres was also observed in a cohort of seropositive healthcare workers from Guy′s and St Thomas′ Hospitals. We suggest that this transient nAb response is a feature shared by both a SARS-CoV-2 infection that causes low disease severity and the circulating seasonal coronaviruses that are associated with common colds. This study has important implications when considering widespread serological testing, Ab protection against re-infection with SARS-CoV-2 and the durability of vaccine protection.”

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1 hour ago, whitehawk said:

Arizona: 3 teachers who worked together in a classroom (masked) infected, 1 died: https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/12/us/arizona-teachers-coronavirus/index.html

How can ANYONE read this and still say, “shrug, time to move on, open up, we should all get sick to “ get it over with”, welp we're all gonna die of sumpin' anyway“? 

How much proof do they need? Or how black are their hearts?
 

Heartbreaking. And terrifying. 😞 


 

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34 minutes ago, MEmama said:

How can ANYONE read this and still say, “shrug, time to move on, open up, we should all get sick to “ get it over with”, welp we're all gonna die of sumpin' anyway“? 

How much proof do they need? Or how black are their hearts?
 

Heartbreaking. And terrifying. 😞 


 

Hmm, this is an interesting take. I can't imagine a story, no matter how heartbreaking, carrying much weight in my decision making. I mean there are logical reasons for arguing against the character you describe in your first paragraph. Logic and facts always beats emotion in my mind. I hope that doesn't say anything about my "black heart" lol. 

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1 hour ago, TracyP said:

Hmm, this is an interesting take. I can't imagine a story, no matter how heartbreaking, carrying much weight in my decision making. I mean there are logical reasons for arguing against the character you describe in your first paragraph. Logic and facts always beats emotion in my mind. I hope that doesn't say anything about my "black heart" lol. 

Nope, not directed at you, or anyone who listens to experts and uses logic and common sense.

It is common sense to listen to scientists who have been practically screaming at us to pay attention and slooooow down. It is common sense to wear a mask, and has been for months. It is common sense to stay at home, give up your vacay, and take care of each other. It is logical that schools really can’t open in a regular way in a country whose numbers are exploding and has zero exit strategy. 
 

This story is, heartbreakingly, just one of tens of thousands in the US alone. I absolutely agree that emotion doesn’t beat out facts, but I do seriously worry about people who don’t want to listen to the realities of this virus, who continue to insist that all kids should get it/ that’s its “just” old people who die/that it’s mild and no big deal. I worry about the folks who still won’t wear masks, who still say “meh, it’s just a flu/people die in car accidents too/abortion (?!)...”. Forgive me, but I’m feeling pretty damn angry that our government has abdicated its role, that too many people are happily running us all off a cliff, and that our country is in such a dire situation as a result. 
 

I definitely didn’t mean to offend you. 

Edited by MEmama
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1 hour ago, TracyP said:

Hmm, this is an interesting take. I can't imagine a story, no matter how heartbreaking, carrying much weight in my decision making. I mean there are logical reasons for arguing against the character you describe in your first paragraph. Logic and facts always beats emotion in my mind. I hope that doesn't say anything about my "black heart" lol. 

 

The effect of story on decision making is well known. Telling stories helps us place things in context. For example, hearing someone's story of how they recovered from a heart attack can cause changes in behavior of other heart patients. Telling a story on how a mistake impacted someone changes behaviors and leads people to make corrections so that the mistake doesn't happen again. Story telling has been effective in reducing incidents of drunk driving as well, through direct story telling and abbreviated story telling in ads. Victim impact panels & informational panels where people have had opportunities to tell their stories also have an impact on those who are listening. Presenting facts along with stories puts the facts in context.

Here's a study for you:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0749597800929480

Effects of anti-drunk driving ads:

https://www.absoluteadvocacy.org/drunk-driving-prevention-media-campaigns/

ETA: No, I don't think you have a "black heart," I just think you and others  might not be consciously be aware of how much story affects behavior.

Edited by TechWife
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1 hour ago, MEmama said:

Nope, not directed at you, or anyone who listens to experts and uses logic and common sense.

It is common sense to listen to scientists who have been practically screaming at us to pay attention and slooooow down. It is common sense to wear a mask, and has been for months. It is common sense to stay at home, give up your vacay, and take care of each other. It is logical that schools really can’t open in a regular way in a country whose numbers are exploding and has zero exit strategy. 
 

This story is, heartbreakingly, just one of tens of thousands in the US alone. I absolutely agree that emotion doesn’t beat out facts, but I do seriously worry about people who don’t want to listen to the realities of this virus, who continue to insist that all kids should get it/ that’s its “just” old people who die/that it’s mild and no big deal. I worry about the folks who still won’t wear masks, who still say “meh, it’s just a flu/people die in car accidents too/abortion (?!)...”. Forgive me, but I’m feeling pretty damn angry that our government has abdicated its role, that too many people are happily running us all off a cliff, and that our country is in such a dire situation as a result. 
 

I definitely didn’t mean to offend you. 

I'm not offended at all. I added the 'lol' in an attmept to convey that. No worries. 🙂

It seems like common sense that eating high fat will make you fat, but that isn't actually borne out by science. Common sense doesn't always make good decisions either. Fwiw, I agree that we all should wear masks. I disagree that schools shouldn't open. (Though not in some states.)

The thing is, I could pull up a number of stories right now where kids, teens, and healthy adults died of the flu. We all have willingly accepted that for our whole lives. Some people are still okay accepting the risk and the death count associated with covid. I am not. It is too high, imo. But I'm not sure that they are intent on "running us off a cliff" just because they see this differently than you or me. I think that type of thinking is too simplistic. 

 

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1 hour ago, TechWife said:

 

The effect of story on decision making is well known. Telling stories helps us place things in context. For example, hearing someone's story of how they recovered from a heart attack can cause changes in behavior of other heart patients. Telling a story on how a mistake impacted someone changes behaviors and leads people to make corrections so that the mistake doesn't happen again. Story telling has been effective in reducing incidents of drunk driving as well, through direct story telling and abbreviated story telling in ads. Victim impact panels & informational panels where people have had opportunities to tell their stories also have an impact on those who are listening. Presenting facts along with stories puts the facts in context.

Here's a study for you:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0749597800929480

Effects of anti-drunk driving ads:

https://www.absoluteadvocacy.org/drunk-driving-prevention-media-campaigns/

ETA: No, I don't think you have a "black heart," I just think you and others  might not be consciously be aware of how much story affects behavior.

Oh, I don't doubt for a minute that stories influence most people. 

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7 hours ago, whitehawk said:

Arizona: 3 teachers who worked together in a classroom (masked) infected, 1 died: https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/12/us/arizona-teachers-coronavirus/index.html

 

This seems like a situation that needs much much more in depth analysis of what happened.  And an analysis of what perhaps could be done differently (aside from shut everything down again) needs to be done. 

Which of the teachers initially got infected and how?  

What exact sort of masks were being used?

Were masks being used by these teachers elsewhere?

was any other protection being used?

Eye protection? Hands? 

had anyone had any symptoms?

was there any pre testing done?

Was there room ventilation?

and more

 

 

Eta: reading further I see that Kimberly Byrd had a “sinus infection” — so one clear problem seems to be going into public places when sick and assuming it is not CV19.

People who have sickness symptoms need to be able to be isolated.  That might not have saved Byrd, but perhaps it would have meant less spread to others.  And maybe earlier detection and treatment could have helped. 

 

Edited by Pen
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