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On 7/24/2020 at 10:32 AM, vonfirmath said:

Ugh. I need to have this handy in the store so I don't buy it in the first place

(Another reason to prefer soap over sanitizer!)

 

Just don't buy any hand sanitizer made in Mexico.  All of the ones on the eight page list were made there.

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On 7/24/2020 at 2:03 PM, Pawz4me said:

If it's OTC there would be people who would take way more than they were supposed to, believing that more is better. There is no way this drug should be available w/o oversight. And FWIW I do think there are lots of drugs that should be readily available. But this isn't one of them.

Yes,  this is a highly dangerous drug for children to take like 4 pills can be fatal with children.  But then I don't really think acetaminophen is a good drug over the counter-  very easy drug to overdose on and the overdose effects are very serious to deadly.  

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36 minutes ago, TravelingChris said:

I think this is why when seeing my rheumatologist this week and she gave me instructions about which medications this week to stop if I have presumed Covid or actually Covid for 2 weeks, she did mention that patients on immunosuppressants like me seem to be doing much better with Covid.  Interestingly, the only medicine I stop for the two weeks are Arava and Cimzia, which is the biologic.  I continue with Hydroxychloriquine and my steroid as usual

Why does she want you to stop the biologic if people on immunosuppresants are doing better? (my husband is on a biologic for psoriasis, and he's been wondering if he should keep taking it if he returns to in person teaching soon).

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On 7/24/2020 at 8:08 PM, TCB said:

Well I may have found one for you. It says peer reviewed but an article about it not the actual paper I think.

 

https://www.henryford.com/news/2020/07/hydro-treatment-study

 

ETA Ok it’s kind of old- July 2, also it looked like it said 18% reduction in mortality which I don’t think is as much reduction as Dexamethasone

 

ETA 2 - Just saw a comment that it may not have been well controlled, was observational and many were also given steroids

Dexamethasone is a steroid

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16 minutes ago, TravelingChris said:

Yes,  this is a highly dangerous drug for children to take like 4 pills can be fatal with children.  But then I don't really think acetaminophen is a good drug over the counter-  very easy drug to overdose on and the overdose effects are very serious to deadly.  

I used to take Hydroxycloroquine for RA.  My doctor told me that with my small children, even one pill could be fatal.  And the pills are so tiny that even a small child could swallow them.  I stopped taking the medication because 1. I was noticing no benefit to my RA.  However, I also had no side effects.  So, 2. I didn't want my children to accidentally swallow one of my pills.

If I had noticed a benefit I might have continued to take it, but in my situation it wasn't worth the risk.

Also, while I didn't have any (known) side effects, some people do experience severe side effects, including vision problems.

I do not believe this should be available OTC.  And if so, they need to put it in a large pill that would not be as easy for children to swallow.

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20 minutes ago, kokotg said:

Why does she want you to stop the biologic if people on immunosuppresants are doing better? (my husband is on a biologic for psoriasis, and he's been wondering if he should keep taking it if he returns to in person teaching soon).

Just for one dose.  I take it every two weeks and I think that immediately after taking it, I am more likely to get sick or sicker but later I am not.  

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I think that there is a huge difference between taking vitamins or minerals that all bodies need to function properly :  like zinc, vitamin d, etc. and taking prescription medicines which have specific mechanisms within the body to block specific diseases or disease processes.  It's part of the "do no harm" of medicine.  I have no problem if someone is taking hcq (or anything else) as specifically prescribed by a qualified doctor for a patient who has been evaluated for a specific condition.  I think that that kind of prescribing should be accompanied by monitoring.  Like how people are monitored for liver damage with certain meds. (I personally would not go to any doctor that I thought was prescribing things based on their politics or some other non-medical agenda.  In fact, I think any doctor prescribing that way is guilty of malpractice.) 

Now vitamins and minerals can be misused.  And you can get toxic levels if done incorrectly so I think that caution is still necessary.  Quercetin is found in foods like apples and veggies like onions. 

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14 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

ok, looking at the studies, this doesn't seem that impressive, given that I can't see where they controlled for how sick thy were to start with, etc. 

Results: Out of 26,815 SARS-CoV-2 positive patients, 77 (0.29%) were chronically treated with HCQ, while 1,215 (0.36%) out of 333,489 negative patients were receiving it chronically (P=0.04). After adjustment for age, sex, and chronic treatment with corticosteroids and/or immunosuppressants, the odds ratio of SARS-CoV-2 infection for chronic treatment with HCQ has been 0.51 (0.37-0.70).https://www.palmerfoundation.com.au/chronic-treatment-with-hydroxychloroquine-and-sars-cov-2-infection/

And

The majority of hospitalized patients received hydroxychloroquine (74.6% of survivors and 71.3% of non-survivors) and azithromycin (67.4% of survivors and 71.3% of non-survivors). Fewer hospitalized patients received other medications such as remdesivir, anakinra, tocilizumab, or sarilumab (Table 2). 

https://www.palmerfoundation.com.au/risk-factors-for-mortality-in-patients-with-covid-19-in-new-york-city/

 

Again, I want to

point out that HCQ has main benefits early.  Ideally **before** hospitalization stage, or if in hospital at least as immediately as possible—not several days later when Cv19 is confirmed. (The only way my state currently allows HCQ to be used is for in hospital and with CV19 confirmed—and only people needing respiratory support can be hospitalized.  It is sort of like washing out a wound and applying antiseptic and antibiotic only **after**  it has already gone into systemic sepsis... really really stupid. Or perhaps something worse than stupid.) 

I realize it is anecdotal, but I think part of what is missing is the sort of irl experience that comes when people are feeling horrible and then take x and feel much better. Not that all do by any means, but for those who do feel better, it becomes extremely important.    This can be from a patient POV or an observing medical worker POV. 

Aspirins don’t help all headaches, for example, but they do help some (or maybe they are just an excellent placebo). In any case for the people they help, even if by placebo, it is a major feeling of relief.  

Cuba btw which probably hasn’t got as much corporate profit motives is using HCQ as part of its CV19 cocktail and seems to be doing better than Florida currently . 

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25 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I think that there is a huge difference between taking vitamins or minerals that all bodies need to function properly :  like zinc, vitamin d, etc. and taking prescription medicines which have specific mechanisms within the body to block specific diseases or disease processes.  It's part of the "do no harm" of medicine.  I have no problem if someone is taking hcq (or anything else) as specifically prescribed by a qualified doctor for a patient who has been evaluated for a specific condition.  I think that that kind of prescribing should be accompanied by monitoring.  Like how people are monitored for liver damage with certain meds. (I personally would not go to any doctor that I thought was prescribing things based on their politics or some other non-medical agenda.  In fact, I think any doctor prescribing that way is guilty of malpractice.) 

Now vitamins and minerals can be misused.  And you can get toxic levels if done incorrectly so I think that caution is still necessary.  Quercetin is found in foods like apples and veggies like onions. 

 

I agree with you about nutraceuticals being in a different category than pharmaceuticals. 

 

I guess maybe having lived in malarial countries HCQ doesn’t seem like that much of a “big deal” medication to me.  

The prophylaxis amount would seem to be 200mg several times for loading dose, along with zinc etc, then once per week ( with a 40 day half life maybe it doesn’t even need to be once per week). That’s extremely low compared to what has caused heart etc issues for some people with RA taking it more often for years . 

 

Possibly a better approach than purely OTC would be similar to how Pseudoephedrine is currently done in some places where limited amounts can be bought without prescription, but not kept in bottles on shelves where people can grab lots or would stockpile it like TP.  Possibly one could do that (remotely for less exposure) and get the instructions on use, cautions, etc. from pharmacist. 

My guess is that a lot of people at particularly high risk like migrant food workers don’t have doctors available to prescribe for them, monitor etc.    And it doesn’t necessarily need that. There can be instructions along lines of: if you experience ____ stop taking it.  If you experience __ stop taking and call __. 

 

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6 hours ago, kokotg said:

Why does she want you to stop the biologic if people on immunosuppresants are doing better? (my husband is on a biologic for psoriasis, and he's been wondering if he should keep taking it if he returns to in person teaching soon).

I know the math protocol guy (dr Marik) was recommending the anti inflammatories only after the change when oxygen levels start dropping during that interview with Dr Been.  I think it’s a while since I watched it but the timing is important.  In the first two weeks approx you want the immune system doing everything possible to clear the virus.  But once/if the changes hits you bring in the anti inflammatories to dampen it down.  I wonder if this is working on a similar theory.

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3 hours ago, Bagels McGruffikin said:


Came across an excellent compilation of the data for HCQ, positive and negative, for all who were interested. Links given down the thread to each study 🏆 

Have managed to charge my phone while driving!  A couple of thoughts.  The Michigan study seems the best of these though had me worried with the higher rate of death with the azithromycin but it turns out that was given to patients with pre existing cardiac issues so that seems to explain it.  Someone commented that the groups weren’t truly random  but didn’t really explain it so I’m not sure why they meant.

I tried to get the doctor zev study the other day and after taking my email address it wouldn’t download.  
 

the country data is somewhat questionable because there are so many other factors and also because several commenters stated that actually hydroxychloroquine wasn’t used in their country when it was claimed it was.  It would be useful for trends excepts the only countries that It seemed to be accurate for were Russia whose figures are pretty dubious and the Ukraine (maybe reliable).

The one with zinc compares hydroxychloroquine with zinc to hydroxychloroquine with azithromycin so there’s no control group that didn’t get it at all.

It seems like these are all good studies that  point to the need for more studies but not an actual proper RCT which is what we really need.  for myself personally I’m leaning toward doing the Quercetin thing if we end up exposed because it’s much more accessible here.

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On 7/25/2020 at 9:27 AM, square_25 said:

I mean, my estimates are obviously not perfect, and the data is noisy. I would guess the IFR is changing from 1 percent to, like, 0.8 percent. But no, I don't think there's been something revolutionary that decreases deaths by a big factor. And to be fair, none of these studies are showing this large an effect. 

The data is all very noisy, but as long as I'm getting a linear relationship with some minor variation, I'm assuming that a lot of the anecdotal reports are confirmation bias. 

Square, you're way better at statistics than me. If you get a chance would you look at Utah's numbers and tell me what you think? Our death rates have consistently been lower than other states; I've heard it suggested that is partly because our population is younger overall but I don't know if that actually accounts for the difference.

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1 hour ago, Melissa in Australia said:

532 new cases in Vic

6 deaths 

 

We have basically have the same stats in San Diego with a third of your population, if that makes you feel any better. 

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On 7/25/2020 at 10:46 AM, Plum said:

Analyses of electronic health records indicate that COVID-19 patients are 27 times more likely to have smell loss but are only around 2.2 to 2.6 times more likely to have fever, cough or respiratory difficulty, compared to patients without COVID-19.

Is that a main symptom then?  If it is, it should make it the schools and business checklist.  So many are just going by fever as the main one.

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1 minute ago, matrips said:

Is that a main symptom then?  If it is, it should make it the schools and business checklist.  So many are just going by fever as the main one.

 

Yes. Smell loss seems to be a frequent  symptom.  I know quite a few people doing a daily scent sense check

I think I would notice if I weren’t able to smell, but perhaps a deliberate check would be good.

and “an identify the smell” check at schools and businesses could be a good idea—but it might take a lot of scent items (because presumably same ones could not be used over and over with people breathing on them. 

Also some people get headaches etc from some items that could be used to test sense of smell. 

 

Hmm .  Maybe in a school type situation everyone who could safely do it could have their own 3 baggies with something like a differently scented cotton ball in each.   They could randomly choose with eyes shut and sniff and an observer would decide if they gave right ID based on label on bag.  That way it would not contaminate group use scent items. 

 

I wish a lot more CV19 sniffer detection dogs could get trained up quickly! 

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11 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Yes. Smell loss seems to be a frequent  symptom.  I know quite a few people doing a daily scent sense check

I think I would notice if I weren’t able to smell, but perhaps a deliberate check would be good.

and “an identify the smell” check at schools and businesses could be a good idea—but it might take a lot of scent items (because presumably same ones could not be used over and over with people breathing on them. 

Also some people get headaches etc from some items that could be used to test sense of smell. 

 

Hmm .  Maybe in a school type situation everyone who could safely do it could have their own 3 baggies with something like a differently scented cotton ball in each.   They could randomly choose with eyes shut and sniff and an observer would decide if they gave right ID based on label on bag.  That way it would not contaminate group use scent items. 

 

I wish a lot more CV19 sniffer detection dogs could get trained up quickly! 

Our schools are asking parents to do a health check at home, and sign a promise to that effect. I want to make sure it’s at least listed as a main symptom then.

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13 minutes ago, Pen said:

wish a lot more CV19 sniffer detection dogs could get trained up quickly! 

Is this a thing?!  That would be pretty awesome.  One per office building or school...

eta- that would be a lot of dogs.  Wishful but not practical 

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1 minute ago, matrips said:

Our schools are asking parents to do a health check at home, and sign a promise to that effect. I want to make sure it’s at least listed as a main symptom then.

 

Headache should be on it too.  

Not a help for people who get lots of headaches, but headache was a first sign in some (many) people .

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28 minutes ago, Plum said:

It’s listed on every cluster in the Zoe Symptom study. Dh’s hospital is considering it a symptom and won’t let him return to work until that has cleared. They are using the new CDC return to work criteria for HCW. No reason for a new test this way. 
 

https://covid.joinzoe.com/us-post/covid-clusters

How is that going to work when so many people seem to never get their sense of smell back at all?

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34 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

The Michigan study seems the best of these though had me worried with the higher rate of death with the azithromycin but it turns out that was given to patients with pre existing cardiac issues so that seems to explain it.  Someone commented that the groups weren’t truly random  but didn’t really explain it so I’m not sure why they meant.

One of the top predictors of mortality in that study was age >65, and the average age for the HCQ group was 64 (SD 53-74), vs 71 in the non treatment group (SD 56-83). Plus 79% of the HCQ group also received steroids, vs only 36% of the nontreatment group. 

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8 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

One of the top predictors of mortality in that study was age >65, and the average age for the HCQ group was 64 (SD 53-74), vs 71 in the non treatment group (SD 56-83). Plus 79% of the HCQ group also received steroids, vs only 36% of the nontreatment group. 

Ahh the steroids are most likely the biggest factor then as they seem to show good results 

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55 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

 

Do you mean the Jerome Corsi PDF?

 

 

No this guy

I did manage to download it now although it still doesn’t seem to resolve things.  I thought the risk with hydroxychloroquine was specifically in the context of covid infection not just generalised risk.  (Similar to how vaccine trials can show a vaccine doesn’t have adverse side effects normally but people can still have an adverse effect when actually exposed to the virus). But I have just managed to download it and haven’t managed to read it in full and my power just came back so I need to get some work done.  It may be of interest to you. 

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https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2019014?query=RP
 

this is the other most recent one i can find. I’m not sure if this is the one mentioned on the thread arctic mama linked - someone said there was something weird with dosages but didn’t get specific so I’m not sure if it was this study and what was weird about it.

also no zinc included 

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42 minutes ago, matrips said:

Is this a thing?!  That would be pretty awesome.  One per office building or school...

eta- that would be a lot of dogs.  Wishful but not practical 

 

It is.  And the best dogs do as well as lab tests. Sometimes better - two dogs agreed on a sample as positive that was supposed to be a negative control. And when that patient was retested it turned out the dogs were correct.

But so far only a dozen or so dogs have been trained and possibly zero in USA. 

I think they were supposed to go into service at airports. 

 

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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

 for myself personally I’m leaning toward doing the Quercetin thing if we end up exposed because it’s much more accessible here.

 

I’m doing the Quercitin- zinc-C  (following. MATH  Marik protocol on those More or less) thing **now** because it seems to me that the ideal time to get optimized is ***before***  exposure!

 

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29 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

 

 

I’m doing the Quercitin- zinc-C  (following. MATH  Marik protocol on those More or less) thing **now** because it seems to me that the ideal time to get optimized is ***before***  exposure!

 

Yep.  We haven’t got community spread here yet so I’m waiting on that stuff... but if I lived where there was I might start 

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16 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Yep.  We haven’t got community spread here yet so I’m waiting on that stuff... but if I lived where there was I might start 

You can't go wrong getting your vitamin D levels up!  It's helpful for so many things.  With my food allergies, I'm saving all other things until I need them but taking weekly vitamin D.

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24 minutes ago, ElizabethB said:

You can't go wrong getting your vitamin D levels up!  It's helpful for so many things.  With my food allergies, I'm saving all other things until I need them but taking weekly vitamin D.

Yep I’m already doing the vit d and my usual b vitamins.  I also have some elderberry plus zinc here which I’m doing whenever anyone has a sniffle or whatever so hoping that helps.  Just haven’t got the quercetin happening yet or a dedicated zinc.  Incidentally overall energy levels have improved since I’ve been doing to the  vit d plus an hours outdoor time weather permitting 

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4 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Are India using hydroxychloroquine widely given they held onto a lot early?  How is the cfr compared to elsewhere?  Obviously one of many many factors just interested.

Supposedly they are.

Here is an interesting article about how Equador turned around their death rates after starting HCQ, you can feed it into Google translate 5,000 words at a time if you're interested, they did more than that, too, very interesting article.

https://www.lanuevaprensa.com.co/component/k2/del-desastre-a-la-victoria-como-guayaquil-vencio-al-covid-19

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11 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Yep I’m already doing the vit d and my usual b vitamins.  I also have some elderberry plus zinc here which I’m doing whenever anyone has a sniffle or whatever so hoping that helps.  Just haven’t got the quercetin happening yet or a dedicated zinc.  Incidentally overall energy levels have improved since I’ve been doing to the  vit d plus an hours outdoor time weather permitting 

getting zinc to a good level

is probably also a good idea for general health - 

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9 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Are India using hydroxychloroquine widely given they held onto a lot early?  How is the cfr compared to elsewhere?  Obviously one of many many factors just interested.

 

What I’ve read so far is they were using it for voluntary prophylaxis  for law enforcement and medical workers in some places and using it as medicine for some sick people. 

 

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8 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

4 cases linked to the neonate NICU in children’s hospital in vic. (all in adults).  Hope and pray that the lower infection rate in kids holds here.

one is an infant under 3 weeks old

 a baby, 2 parents - I am guessing parents of the baby - and one nurse

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Is it on this thread that someone recommended the podcast This Week in Virology?  Anyway, this episode about rapid antigen testing has completely upended my thinking about how it might be possible to control this pandemic.  Here Is a shortened version of the interview, and here is a news article with some more details about various tests in development.  

The basic idea -- that what we need are tests primarily figure out when people are contagious and that the technology exists to make such tests cheaply and at scale -- seems potentially transformative to me.

 

 

 

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58 minutes ago, JennyD said:

Is it on this thread that someone recommended the podcast This Week in Virology?  Anyway, this episode about rapid antigen testing has completely upended my thinking about how it might be possible to control this pandemic.  Here Is a shortened version of the interview, and here is a news article with some more details about various tests in development.  

The basic idea -- that what we need are tests primarily figure out when people are contagious and that the technology exists to make such tests cheaply and at scale -- seems potentially transformative to me.

 

 

 

Singapore have just developed a 36 minute one 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/covid-19-singapore-testing-community-quick-pcr-ntu-12965532?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

widespread available and rapid turn around testing would make a massive difference 

There was a study the other day showing contact tracing has to happen within three days to make a significant difference.  Given our fastest test around here is around 24 hours and it might take 24 hours for people to get down for a test etc it doesn’t leave the contact tracers much time.  Getting same day results would be good.

Edited by Ausmumof3
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59 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

 

There was a study the other day showing contact tracing has to happen within three days to make a significant difference.  Given our fastest test around here is around 24 hours and it might take 24 hours for people to get down for a test etc it doesn’t leave the contact tracers much time.  Getting same day results would be good.

 

The types of tests that Michael Mina (among others) are proposing would probably make a lot of contact tracing unnecessary, actually -- the idea is inexpensive, at-home saliva tests that you could do nearly every day before going to school or work, visiting family, etc.  Such tests are not nearly as sensitive as PCR tests, but his point is that they don't need to be.  PCR tests are extremely sensitive and pick up even low levels of virus.  Antigen tests can't do that.  But they are plenty sensitive enough to pick up virus at the the level that people are shedding when they are contagious, and what we desperately need to know is when people are contagious.  

This doesn't seem to get as much attention, but I personally also think that it is very important to get some tests out there ASAP that don't require uncomfortable/painful swabs.  

Edited by JennyD
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1 hour ago, JennyD said:

 

The types of tests that Michael Mina (among others) are proposing would probably make a lot of contact tracing unnecessary, actually -- the idea is inexpensive, at-home saliva tests that you could do nearly every day before going to school or work, visiting family, etc.  Such tests are not nearly as sensitive as PCR tests, but his point is that they don't need to be.  PCR tests are extremely sensitive and pick up even low levels of virus.  Antigen tests can't do that.  But they are plenty sensitive enough to pick up virus at the the level that people are shedding when they are contagious, and what we desperately need to know is when people are contagious.  

This doesn't seem to get as much attention, but I personally also think that it is very important to get some tests out there ASAP that don't require uncomfortable/painful swabs.  

Hang on I think he is the guy I was following on twitter talking about this.  Yes would be great - similar to a pregnancy test in a sense.

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24 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Hang on I think he is the guy I was following on twitter talking about this.  Yes would be great - similar to a pregnancy test in a sense.

 

The thing that was so striking to me in his interview is that right now apparently the key hurdle is regulatory/financial rather than technological.  After the whole antibody test debacle the FDA has been hesitant to approve tests that would be significantly less accurate than the current highly-sensitive PCR tests, and companies are hesitant to scale these things up before approval.   But these tests don't have to be anywhere near as accurate -- if they can catch most people who are currently infectious, that would dramatically alter the course of this pandemic.  

It is so incredibly frustrating to me that this technology is sitting in labs RIGHT NOW.  The lack of urgency is just maddening.  Why are we not throwing absolutely everything possible at solving this problem!  (That's a rhetorical question.)

 

Edited by JennyD
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