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66 cases in vic

abc

“Victorian Health Minister suggests 'super spreader' could be the cause of the outbreak

 
A single source could be the cause for the latest outbreak of COVID-19 in Melbourne. 
 
Victorian Health Minister, Jenny Mikakos, told reporters a briefing she received on this week suggested many of the new cases could be traced to one infection. 
 
"On Tuesday, I received a briefing of a genomic sequencing report that seemed to suggest that there seems to be a single source of infection for many of the cases that have gone across the northern and western suburbs of Melbourne," she said. 
  
"It appears to be even potentially a super spreader that has caused this upsurge in cases. We don't have the full picture yet."
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3 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

66 cases in vic

abc

“Victorian Health Minister suggests 'super spreader' could be the cause of the outbreak

 
A single source could be the cause for the latest outbreak of COVID-19 in Melbourne. 
 
Victorian Health Minister, Jenny Mikakos, told reporters a briefing she received on this week suggested many of the new cases could be traced to one infection. 
 
"On Tuesday, I received a briefing of a genomic sequencing report that seemed to suggest that there seems to be a single source of infection for many of the cases that have gone across the northern and western suburbs of Melbourne," she said. 
  
"It appears to be even potentially a super spreader that has caused this upsurge in cases. We don't have the full picture yet."

This is what is so insidious - and why we need largescale contact tracing rather than assumption that certain populations don't spread it, based on limited studies. 

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36 minutes ago, ElizabethB said:

Here is the actual study:

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30534-8/fulltext

Interestingly, there is no mention of zinc that I could find, I thought the primary way HCQ helped was as a zinc ionophore.

 

There are a whole lot of potential HCQ mechanisms of action ... not just zinc ionophore.  That was actually a later addition after earlier use  had already been showing promise on its own. 

it may shift the whole Th1 / Th2 immune balance for example (though there are discrepancies in which direction (😉). 

 

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38 minutes ago, ElizabethB said:

Here is the actual study:

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30534-8/fulltext

Interestingly, there is no mention of zinc that I could find, I thought the primary way HCQ helped was as a zinc ionophore.

One thing that's unusual about this study is that the HCQ-only group did MUCH better than the HCQ+AZ group, which I think is the opposite of the French studies. In this study, the death rate for HCQ+AZ group (20%) was actually a bit closer to the no treatment group (26%) than the HCQ-only group (13%).

I'm wondering about the data in Table 1 on median age — it looks like the median age for the no treatment group is "71" while the HCQ-only group is listed as "53"??? Am I reading that wrong? Is that a typo?

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@ElizabethB  hcq also has direct antiviral activity, anti -thrombosis activity, and other aspects which may make it helpful even in the absence of zinc.

since we don’t get to know what zinc (and  vitamin D) status is, however, we don’t really know if patients in cohorts are sufficient or deficient in zinc before the Hcq treatment.  

 

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This is probably stupid, but I would really, seriously, legitimately like to see if there's any reduction in risk when people wear a mask over their mouth but not their nose, since that's how I see at least 60% of people wearing their masks (if they're wearing them at all) around here.  My gut feeling is that improper wearing probably invalidates mask benefits, but my husband said that's not necessarily the case and we'd need a study to determine if it helps at all.

Of course, apparently he trained himself to sneeze out of his mouth and not his nose.  

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4 minutes ago, Terabith said:

This is probably stupid, but I would really, seriously, legitimately like to see if there's any reduction in risk when people wear a mask over their mouth but not their nose, since that's how I see at least 60% of people wearing their masks (if they're wearing them at all) around here.  My gut feeling is that improper wearing probably invalidates mask benefits, but my husband said that's not necessarily the case and we'd need a study to determine if it helps at all.

Of course, apparently he trained himself to sneeze out of his mouth and not his nose.  

When I see masks around here, most of them actually do cover the nose.  (And even before Governor Abbot's declaration today -- over the last two weeks I've seen a marked increase in mask wearing.)

 

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2 minutes ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

What if we wear them on our feet?   I think that, given that catching sneezes is a major point of the mask, not covering the mask has to impact effectiveness.  How could it be otherwise?  But I have heard that for nose breathing is maybe a little better than breathing through your mouth, so maybe a small benefit?

Well, Mike's point is that people vary in whether they breathe primarily through their mouth versus their nose.  But like I said, he apparently sneezes without using his nose, so I dunno?  I mean, clearly it would be far, far better if people wore them over both their noses and mouths, but that's apparently not going to happen.

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2 hours ago, Corraleno said:

One thing that's unusual about this study is that the HCQ-only group did MUCH better than the HCQ+AZ group, which I think is the opposite of the French studies. In this study, the death rate for HCQ+AZ group (20%) was actually a bit closer to the no treatment group (26%) than the HCQ-only group (13%).

I'm wondering about the data in Table 1 on median age — it looks like the median age for the no treatment group is "71" while the HCQ-only group is listed as "53"??? Am I reading that wrong? Is that a typo?

I don't think that was a typo.  That is quite a difference.

They also only gave both HCQ+AZ to those that were the worst off, so some confounding there, perhaps they were trying to limit antibiotic use, but it makes results tougher to figure out.

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7 hours ago, TCB said:

Absolutely agree! And they do mostly wear them in the rooms. I wear mine in complete accordance with the rules and try my best to speak sense in the group. I don't know for sure as I don't discuss politics much at work but I have a strong sense that politics enters into this for some. Honestly, the main thing that I have learned from this experience is that we are, by and large, not as bright as we like to think we are! It's been a shock!

 

I really would like to say I'm shocked with you but...

 

What I've really learned is just how few people can actually communicate and I mean on both the giving and recieving end. They won't listen. They don't analyze what they read and see if it even makes sense and they will gladly spout garbage including rumors fit for People magazine and libel with zero evidence.  

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3 hours ago, Terabith said:

Wait, seriously?  What did HEB do with rationing?  

I have mad respect for HEB.  They started preparing for the epidemic in January.  

I ❤️ HEB too.

HEB reinstated rationing of key items (toilet paper, etc.) as they saw an uptick of disease activity—thus anticipating another run on the stores. 
 

HEB led out to protect Texans.

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Dr Michael levitt says herd immunity should kick in at 500 -600 deaths per million.  As far as I can tell death rates for NY and NJ are higher than that.  Though maybe he means country level.  Also Belgian as a whole. 
 

Dr Anthony Bostom appears to not be a medical/epidemiological doctor but something to do with Islamic studies.

thats all I’ve had time for yet but will keep reading when I get to it.  I think deaths is a Lagging indicator means you won’t see results from the latest spikes yet?  We have chatted about some of the stuff up thread but I totally get that it takes a lot of time to catch up.

 Oh... also the guy who writes the article seems to be something to do with anti vax and autism:  do you know any more about that?

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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Dr Michael levitt says herd immunity should kick in at 500 -600 deaths per million.  As far as I can tell death rates for NY and NJ are higher than that.  Though maybe he means country level.  Also Belgian as a whole. 
 

Dr Anthony Bostom appears to not be a medical/epidemiological doctor but something to do with Islamic studies.

thats all I’ve had time for yet but will keep reading when I get to it.  I think deaths is a Lagging indicator means you won’t see results from the latest spikes yet?  We have chatted about some of the stuff up thread but I totally get that it takes a lot of time to catch up.

 Oh... also the guy who writes the article seems to be something to do with anti vax and autism:  do you know any more about that?

The author of the linked article is an "entrepreneur" who self-published a book about how his son's autism was caused by vaccines. 

We already have 12 states where deaths exceed 500 per million, and the virus is continuing to spread despite lockdown measures. The population of NY state alone (20 million) is larger than many European countries, they already have 1,650 deaths per million — three times the "herd immunity threshold" this guy claims, and they just posted over 1000 new infections today, while still heavily shut down. So I call bullshit on the claim that 83% of humans are immune to Covid because they've had a cold, and therefore the herd immunity threshold for Covid is really only 10-20%, and there shouldn't be any lockdown at all.

But I'm glad that article was linked, because now I understand why Trump is still claiming that Covid is going to magically disappear all by itself. He told Fox Business on Wednesday that "“I think we’re gonna be very good with the coronavirus. I think that at some point that’s going to, sort of, just disappear – I hope.”  Good to know he's getting his advice from anti-vaxx bloggers instead of silly misguided epidemiologists. 🙄

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https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.19.20104596v1.full.pdf
 

this study he quotes I think maybe relates to the thing we talked about where the spread rate is not consistent.  Some people spread to 20 or 30 others to none.  This may explain why restrictions on large crowds etc seem so effective at reducing spread.  Not an expert but if the spread rate is around 2-3 for everyone it seems that even normal grocery shopping is going to do that.  But if only some people spread or only at certain stages of the outbreak limiting the number of contacts to a very small number in that time makes a lot of sense.

theres also some thought that the cases in vic all stem from one super spread event which links to this.  

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The quoted article claims that New York is roughly at herd immunity.  To get there (if they are there there have been ~ 1600 deaths per Million people.  
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

If you apply that to the entire population of the US you get 532,000 deaths.  Only another 400,000 to go. 
 

maybe herd immunity will be achieved more easily in places with lower population density?  Maybe?

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19 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

But that would require robust contact tracing and testing - do we have that regarding schools in any meaningful way?

If a kid gets it from another kid at school, but is asymptomatic and not tested, and gives it to mom, who has only mild symptoms and is not tested, who gives it to a few coworkers, who get sick and ARE tested but they have no kids in school, what are the chances it actually gets traced back to the school or daycare?

I can confidently say that in my state there is ZERO chance that would be linked to the school/daycare. 

THIS.  In our area, there are mostly virtual camps though some camps are about to open with extreme social distancing (more than 6 feet), etc.  The daycares that are open aren't full at all.  SChools aren[t open and haven't been.  Most of the other kid activities have been out in the open with sun and heat--- all three factors reduce spreaad.

Our school district is opening up in some way in mid Aug.  We usually are using AC here definitely through all of September and on and off in OCt and even in Nov we may have to use it. 

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“If virologists were driving policy about COVID-19 rather than public health officials, we’d all be Sweden right now, which means life would effectively be back to normal.”

Here’s some stuff that epidemiologists and virologists have to say

 

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11 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.19.20104596v1.full.pdf
 

this study he quotes I think maybe relates to the thing we talked about where the spread rate is not consistent.  Some people spread to 20 or 30 others to none.  This may explain why restrictions on large crowds etc seem so effective at reducing spread.  Not an expert but if the spread rate is around 2-3 for everyone it seems that even normal grocery shopping is going to do that.  But if only some people spread or only at certain stages of the outbreak limiting the number of contacts to a very small number in that time makes a lot of sense.

theres also some thought that the cases in vic all stem from one super spread event which links to this.  

I'm afraid I don't even understand the words in that article, let alone the math, lol. It does not appear to have been published (or even submitted for publication) in any journal, just self-published by two engineers, with no medical or epidemiological background as far as I can tell.

At any rate, the claim by the blogger in the linked post that Sweden's epidemic has been all but "extinguished," now that their death rate exceeds 500 per million, makes absolutely no sense considering that Swedish cases are currently increasing, not decreasing. Does this look like the pandemic is over in Sweden?

Screen Shot 2020-07-03 at 1.53.01 AM.png

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“145 Discussion
146 The concept of herd immunity is most commonly used in the design of vaccination programmes
147 (10). Defining the percentage of the population that must be immune to cause infection
148 incidences to decline, herd immunity thresholds constitute convenient targets for vaccination
149 coverage. In idealised scenarios of vaccines delivered at random and individuals mixing at
150 random, herd immunity thresholds are given by a simple formula (1 − 1⁄𝑅!) which, in the case
151 of SARS-CoV-2, suggests that 60-70% of the population should be immunised to halt spread
152 considering estimates of 𝑅! between 2.5 and 3. A crucial caveat in exporting these calculations
153 to immunization by natural infection, is that natural infection does not occur at random.
154 Individuals who are more susceptible or more exposed are more prone to be infected and become
155 immune earlier, which lowers the threshold. The herd immunity threshold declines sharply when
156 coefficients of variation increase from 0 to 2 and remains below 20% for more variable
157 populations.
158 Heterogeneity in the transmission of respiratory infections has traditionally focused on variation
159 in exposure summarised into age-structured contact matrices (11, 12). Besides overlooking
160 differences in susceptibility given exposure, the aggregation of individuals into age groups
161 curtails coefficients of variation with important downstream implications. Popular models based
162 on contact matrices use a coefficient of variation around 0.9 (13) and perform similarly to our
163 scenarios for 𝐶𝑉 = 1. Supported by existing estimates across infectious diseases, we argue that
164 𝐶𝑉 is generally higher and prognostics more optimistic than currently assumed. However
165 plausible, this needs to be confirmed for the current COVID-19 pandemic and, given its
166 relevance to policy decisions, it should be set as a priority.
167 Interventions themselves have potential to manipulate individual variation. Current social
168 distancing measures may be argued to either increase or decrease variation in exposure,
169 depending on the compliance of highly-susceptible or highly-connected individuals in relation to
170 the average. A deep understanding of these patterns is crucial not only to develop more accurate
171 predictive models, but also to refine control strategies and to interpret data resulting from
172 ongoing serological surveys.
173 Based on the spectrum of current knowledge, a high level of pragmatism may be required in
174 policy responses to serological surveys. On the one hand, if CV is very low, the most stringent
175 control measures would need to be continued for suppression of the epidemic. The other side of
176 that coin is a scenario where keeping only the mildest control measures (protecting the elderly to
177 reduce mortality rates) is optimal. It would therefore be imperative to conduct longitudinal
178 serological studies in representative samples of the population, as control measures are relaxed.
179 Given a percent positivity in an initial survey, the speed at which that figure increases after
180 control measures are eased would reveal what the most likely value of CV is, and simultaneously
181 advise which control measures should be enforced”

discussion from the study quoted in the article to support 20pc herd immunity (I think we have discussed that here before) 

this is much more “this may be what is going on” and much less “we definitely only need 20pc for herd immunity” than its presented in the linked article.  In fact they describe needing to monitor extremely closely when opening up and adjust as needed.

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19 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

I'm afraid I don't even understand the words in that article, let alone the math, lol. It does not appear to have been published (or even submitted for publication) in any journal, just self-published by two engineers, with no medical or epidemiological background as far as I can tell.

At any rate, the claim by the blogger in the linked post that Sweden's epidemic has been all but "extinguished," now that their death rate exceeds 500 per million, makes absolutely no sense considering that Swedish cases are currently increasing, not decreasing. Does this look like the pandemic is over in Sweden?

Screen Shot 2020-07-03 at 1.53.01 AM.png

No.  Although there death rate is consistently declining still so he is accurate in that.  I believe they improved measures around protecting nursing homes so that may have had an impact.

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https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.01.182550v1.full.pdf
 

preprint only autopsy results

these bits were interesting

“Viral RNA could also be detected in low to very high amounts in the samples from the
endocrine organs, the urinary tract, the nervous system, and the reproductive system. Interestingly, the samples of the patients 1, 2, 6 and 7 who were treated with lopinavir/ritonavir were tested
negative.
The same distribution pattern among the patients was observed regarding the viral RNA in the blood. Apart from the patients 8-11 who were not under intensive care (patients 8-10) or did not die of COVID-19 (patient 11), it is noticeable that among the patients receiving intensive care prior to
death (patients 1-7) only the patients 3, 4 and 5 were tested positive for the blood, while the patients 1, 2, 6 and 7 tested negative. The latter patients were treated with lopinavir/ritonavir, so that an effect of antiviral medication on preventing viremia may be suggested.”


and this sounds scary though I don’t really know how to interpret it 

 “The patients with viral RNA in the blood also showed viral RNA in the bone marrow. The patients 1, 8 and 9 were negative in the blood but positive in the bone marrow. Patient 9 showed by far the highest viral loads in the bone marrow. Histology of the bone marrow apart from hypercellularity, left shift and an increased number of megakarocytes showed a significant amount of hemophagocytosis (Fig. 6b). Hemophagocyosis is a morphological feature of the makrophage activation syndrome (MAS) or the hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH)43,44. The clinical characteristics of COVID-19, including very high ferritin levels and very high proinflammatory interleukins, resemble MAS and HLH45 and have already encouraged therapeutically attempts .Further studies are needed in order to clarify this aspect.”

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2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

No.  Although there death rate is consistently declining still so he is accurate in that.  I believe they improved measures around protecting nursing homes so that may have had an impact.

Doesn't Sweden "backfill" their deaths, like Florida does, so it always looks like it's going down?  At any rate, the upswing in cases only began about 3.5 weeks ago, so I wouldn't expect to see a big increase in deaths yet. And hopefully they are protecting the elderly much better at this point, so the daily death toll won't get back to earlier levels even as cases increase. But even if they are protecting the most vulnerable, I don't see how they can add 30,000 new cases in one month and not have any increase in deaths.

Their testing rate is fairly low, and the positive rate is quite high, so their CFR is also quite high — it was 12% as of May 31st, when they had 39,000 cases. They added 30,000 more cases in the month of June, so even if we assume a lower CFR of say 5-10% of those 30,000 new cases, that's another 1500-3000 deaths in the near future, and more in August if their cases continue to rise in July like they did in June. They are currently 5th in the world for per capita deaths, and their per capita cases and deaths are increasing faster than any of the four countries "ahead" of them (Belgium, UK, Spain, Italy). If their CFR stayed at 12% of those 30K new cases, they would have the worst per capita death rate in the world by the end of July. 

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10 hours ago, square_25 said:

To be fair, if you just watch the reports, it’s clear super spreaders are a major driver of spread. That was the whole “dispersion factor” thing, right? (I may be remembering the term wrong.)

Right. Which is why when I see studies of say, 10 kids, or whatever, it is not meaningful. If none of those 10 are superspreaders, but some other kid is, we won't get meaningful data. When only  a small number of people do most of the spreading, you have to look at large numbers of people to see the pattern. 

It's like that Australian study that looked at 9 students and 9 teachers - none spread it, so they concluded kids don't spread it. Except, the teachers didn't spread it to anyone either....and yet that doesn't mean that adults don't spread it - we know they do. It meant those particular 9 adults were not superspreaders. And same with the kids. 

It's why I really need to see more info on schools, on kids. 

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8 hours ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

I really hope that that's true.  Because I can forgive people for not being that bright.  I feel like the other possibility is that people understand that they are risking people's lives, and they just don't care.  I think I'd rather live in a world where the former is the problem, than the latter.  

Unfortunately I'm seeing both.   

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1 hour ago, Ktgrok said:

Right. Which is why when I see studies of say, 10 kids, or whatever, it is not meaningful. If none of those 10 are superspreaders, but some other kid is, we won't get meaningful data. When only  a small number of people do most of the spreading, you have to look at large numbers of people to see the pattern. 

It's like that Australian study that looked at 9 students and 9 teachers - none spread it, so they concluded kids don't spread it. Except, the teachers didn't spread it to anyone either....and yet that doesn't mean that adults don't spread it - we know they do. It meant those particular 9 adults were not superspreaders. And same with the kids. 

It's why I really need to see more info on schools, on kids. 

I agree with a lot of what you are saying here. I definitely want to see more data. But I'm not sure these studies are completely meaningless just because they are small. Like the 9yo in France who didn't spread it to any of his 170 contacts. Is it definitive proof? No way. But it is another little piece of the puzzle that is pointing in the same direction.

By the same argument, the 2 hairdressers who didn't spread covid are completely meaningless. I would disagree - I think those cases are meaningful even if they are not definitive proof on their own.

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There's an excellent article in today's WaPo about the personal practices of a bunch of epidemiologists and public health experts:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/how-fauci-5-other-health-specialists-deal-with-covid-19-risks-in-their-everyday-lives/2020/07/02/d4665ed6-b6fb-11ea-a510-55bf26485c93_story.html#comments-wrapper

In general, they mask everywhere they're near other people. They go to the supermarket. They get their mail. They'd go to an outdoor pool if it's not crowded. They would not eat in a restaurant but they get take out. They wouldn't fly or use public transportation. They've gotten hair cuts if they need them. They've skipped routine doctor and dentist visits. They bring their packages in and don't disinfect them although they do wash their hands after opening.

This made me feel a whole lot better about the decisions I've made.

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The current strain of the virus is possibly more infectious than earlier so we also need to be careful about extrapolation from what may have happened with spreading a few months ago. 

 

 

 

 

14 hours ago, calbear said:

 

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14 hours ago, Terabith said:

This is probably stupid, but I would really, seriously, legitimately like to see if there's any reduction in risk when people wear a mask over their mouth but not their nose, since that's how I see at least 60% of people wearing their masks (if they're wearing them at all) around here.  My gut feeling is that improper wearing probably invalidates mask benefits, but my husband said that's not necessarily the case and we'd need a study to determine if it helps at all.

Of course, apparently he trained himself to sneeze out of his mouth and not his nose.  

 

I would guess a bit if they kept it over mouths for talking.  Also coughs would be caught.  

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I'm wondering about why New York had such a big jump from the middle of March to the end of March, when other parts of the country with the same number of cases in mid March did not.  I was looking back at numbers.  On March 11, didn't New York have like 200 cases?  But it was up to like 25,000 two or three weeks later.  I'm wondering if the big difference was the announced "travel ban" with Europe in mid March?  I remember those pictures of airports, with thousands of people crammed together.  New York is a major hub.  Could it have been that that made the difference between the explosion of cases in NY versus say, Washington state?

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36 minutes ago, Pen said:

The current strain of the virus is possibly more infectious than earlier so we also need to be careful about extrapolation from what may have happened with spreading a few months ago. 

Also, recent HCQ studies have shown less deaths for Black patients, also females.  Females is the same, but the Black data is interesting--new strain less deadly for Black patients? HCQ especially helpful for Black patients?  Random chance?  (But big swing from more deaths to less deaths.)

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11606-020-05983-z

Study not well written, data not well presented, I have concerns overall, but:

"Decreased risk of in-hospital mortality was associated with female sex (HR 0.84, CI 0.77–0.90), African American race (HR 0.78 CI 0.65–0.95), and hydroxychloroquine use (HR 0.53, CI 0.41–0.67)."

The Detroit study:

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30534-8/fulltext

Detroit study better written, data clearer, stats seem sound. Found white patients had increased mortality, opposite of what was seen in the past.

"From Cox regression modeling, predictors of mortality were age>65 years (HR:2.6 [95% CI:1.9-3.3]), white race (HR:1.7 [95% CI:1.4-2.1]), CKD (HR:1.7 [95%CI:1.4-2.1]), reduced O2 saturation level on admission (HR:1.5 [95%CI:1.1-2.1]), and ventilator use during admission (HR: 2.2 [95%CI:1.4-3.3]). Hydroxychloroquine provided a 66% hazard ratio reduction, and hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin 71% compared to neither treatment (p < 0.001)."

 

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On 6/30/2020 at 11:24 AM, Pen said:

@Arcadia @square_25 @mathnerd @dmmetler

My Happy Mask came.  I like it a lot.

I ordered two for my mom (most vulnerable of us so she could switch it out if needed) and one for my son.

I think they would be especially helpful for people in a big city or with underlying health issues or both. In addition to maybe being light and comfortable for kids.

the filter membrane must be directional , in breath is easier than out it seems to me ... 

I hope they are as protective for wearer as the site says!

I am looking for good, protective masks for my boys and my husband. My youngest son is going to a three week summer math class, 3 hours/day and is required to wear a mask. I have some KN95 masks, but I think a cloth mask is more durable and comfortable. I saw this Happy Mask mentioned in another thread, but couldn't find the thread now. So you mom has had this mask for a couple days now. What's her thought? I need to order one now, but would like to check what actual users say first. Thanks! 

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33 minutes ago, ElizabethB said:

Also, recent HCQ studies have shown less deaths for Black patients, also females.  Females is the same, but the Black data is interesting--new strain less deadly for Black patients? HCQ especially helpful for Black patients?  Random chance?  (But big swing from more deaths to less deaths.)

Or? 

Catching on to getting Vitamin D etc levels raised? 

More vulnerable people in greater isolation? 

I’ve certainly been trying to get the Vitamin D etc information  out to my family and friends—especially darker skinned / higher melanin / probably lower D ones.   Have troubles convincing my ds though—younger people feel invulnerable.

 

Might White people in Detroit area be typically less healthy than African American people in Detroit area?   Or older? 

 

Quote

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11606-020-05983-z

Study not well written, data not well presented, I have concerns overall, but:

"Decreased risk of in-hospital mortality was associated with female sex (HR 0.84, CI 0.77–0.90), African American race (HR 0.78 CI 0.65–0.95), and hydroxychloroquine use (HR 0.53, CI 0.41–0.67)."

The Detroit study:

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30534-8/fulltext

Detroit study better written, data clearer, stats seem sound. Found white patients had increased mortality, opposite of what was seen in the past.

Do white patients have increased absolute rates of mortality compared to white people earlier in pandemic ?

Or only increased mortality rates as a mathematical effect of non-whites having less mortality?

also, is this mortality at a certain number of days from something ? 

I have been wondering at the studies that use 28 day mortality since many high profile cases like Dr. Li were in hospital longer than 28 days when they died iirc. 

 

Quote

 

"From Cox regression modeling, predictors of mortality were age>65 years (HR:2.6 [95% CI:1.9-3.3]), white race (HR:1.7 [95% CI:1.4-2.1]), CKD (HR:1.7 [95%CI:1.4-2.1]), reduced O2 saturation level on admission (HR:1.5 [95%CI:1.1-2.1]), and ventilator use during admission (HR: 2.2 [95%CI:1.4-3.3]). Hydroxychloroquine provided a 66% hazard ratio reduction, and hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin 71% compared to neither treatment (p < 0.001)."

 

 

Interesting.  

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4 minutes ago, Pen said:

Or? 

Catching on to getting Vitamin D etc levels raised? 

More vulnerable people in greater isolation? 

I’ve certainly been trying to get the Vitamin D etc information  out to my family and friends—especially darker skinned / higher melanin / probably lower D ones.   Have troubles convincing my ds though—younger people feel invulnerable.

 

Might White people in Detroit area be typically less healthy than African American people in Detroit area?   Or older? 

 

Do white patients have increased absolute rates of mortality compared to white people earlier in pandemic ?

Or only increased mortality rates as a mathematical effect of non-whites having less mortality?

also, is this mortality at a certain number of days from something ? 

I have been wondering at the studies that use 28 day mortality since many high profile cases like Dr. Li were in hospital longer than 28 days when they died iirc. 

 

 

Interesting.  

Yes, interesting, I forgot, I had the theory about North/South differences, too.  NY and Detroit north, people in the South overall are less healthy, could be differences in how that plays out racially, too.

We've lived all over, people definitely exercise less and eat more unhealthy food in the South overall.

Lots of factors to consider.

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22 minutes ago, JadeOrchidSong said:

I am looking for good, protective masks for my boys and my husband. My youngest son is going to a three week summer math class, 3 hours/day and is required to wear a mask. I have some KN95 masks, but I think a cloth mask is more durable and comfortable. I saw this Happy Mask mentioned in another thread, but couldn't find the thread now. So you mom has had this mask for a couple days now. What's her thought? I need to order one now, but would like to check what actual users say first. Thanks! 

 

Hers hasn’t arrived yet. I can let you know when she gets it.  I wish it already had since she had to go to a car repair today. 

Mine arrived and I have had it for a couple of days. I like it so far, but haven’t had it on 3 hours nonstop thus far. I can update you on my experience with it next week. 

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3 hours ago, TracyP said:

I agree with a lot of what you are saying here. I definitely want to see more data. But I'm not sure these studies are completely meaningless just because they are small. Like the 9yo in France who didn't spread it to any of his 170 contacts. Is it definitive proof? No way. But it is another little piece of the puzzle that is pointing in the same direction.

By the same argument, the 2 hairdressers who didn't spread covid are completely meaningless. I would disagree - I think those cases are meaningful even if they are not definitive proof on their own.

Yeah, I discount both of those case studies or whatever you want to call them. Anecdotal, interesting as far as  saying hey, we should study this! But not any kind of real evidence of anything. 

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34 minutes ago, JadeOrchidSong said:

I am looking for good, protective masks for my boys and my husband. My youngest son is going to a three week summer math class, 3 hours/day and is required to wear a mask. I have some KN95 masks, but I think a cloth mask is more durable and comfortable. I saw this Happy Mask mentioned in another thread, but couldn't find the thread now. So you mom has had this mask for a couple days now. What's her thought? I need to order one now, but would like to check what actual users say first. Thanks! 

I don’t know if this is significant but I can smell things like coffee through the Happy Mask much more easily than through a two layer 100% cotton (outer layer salted) mask.  

I hope the lab test results for Happymask are reliable.

the Happymask is much lighter, cooler, more easy to breathe through than the 2 layer 100% cotton. 

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17 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

Yeah, I discount both of those case studies or whatever you want to call them. Anecdotal, interesting as far as  saying hey, we should study this! But not any kind of real evidence of anything. 

 

I don’t discount them.  But I don’t conclude that masks are 100% protective or that children 100% can’t spread the illness. 

At the chalet, I think only the UK businessman was a “super-spreader” and I don’t think we know why.  None of the other people were iirc whether adult or child. I can’t recall  if any of the others at the chalet went on to spread it at all. 

and I lost track of the interview with a doctor who got CV19 apparently on a plane with universal masking... 

 

as long as the Alabama students / young adults are playing CV19 games, I’d like to know how easily / how quickly they are getting it. 

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On 7/2/2020 at 6:10 PM, Dreamergal said:

He was trying to present himself as a caring grandfather who would be willing to die for the sake of his grandchildren's future. Then offered up other grandparents too without their choice or consent that they will be willing to die as well. 🙄

Here is a quote (TX Lt. Gov. Patrick, from March):  

“No one reached out to me and said, as a senior citizen, ‘Are you willing to take a chance on your survival in exchange for keeping the America that all America loves for your children and grandchildren?’ And if that’s the exchange, I’m all in … I just think there’s lots of grandparents out there in this country like me — I have six grandchildren — that what we all care about and what we love more than anything are those children. I want to live smart and see through this. But I don’t want the whole country to be sacrificed and that’s what I see.”

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23 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

I don’t know if this is significant but I can smell things like coffee through the Happy Mask much more easily than through a two layer 100% cotton (outer layer salted) mask.  

I hope the lab test results for Happymask are reliable.

the Happymask is much lighter, cooler, more easy to breathe through than the 2 layer 100% cotton. 

Do you think that's a result of the design -- the way it has extra space in the front?  I've seen a homemade design out there that has pleats over the nose so that the mask puffs out.  I'm trying to get motivated to make one.

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1 hour ago, Terabith said:

I'm wondering about why New York had such a big jump from the middle of March to the end of March, when other parts of the country with the same number of cases in mid March did not.  I was looking back at numbers.  On March 11, didn't New York have like 200 cases?  But it was up to like 25,000 two or three weeks later.  I'm wondering if the big difference was the announced "travel ban" with Europe in mid March?  I remember those pictures of airports, with thousands of people crammed together.  New York is a major hub.  Could it have been that that made the difference between the explosion of cases in NY versus say, Washington state?

I’m pretty sure the big jump was due to testing availability. There were definitely more cases in NY in mid-March than 200 per day, but they weren’t performing enough tests to capture a true number. 

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 I wore my Totobobo mask throughout the 1.5 day emergency room visit and surgery (I hope - I was out!) due to a fall in which I broke my tibia and fibula and ankle (and dislocated my ankle) last week in NC while visiting my parents.  In a hospital it was so easy to wear. That reminds me to change out the filters (but there were no COVID-19 patients there - too small of a hospital).  It is cool because you can change out the filters thereby reusing the main mask.  The filters are 92%-100% depending on which filter sets you buy.

 

My family has been wearing these masks since early March.  I have gotten a bunch of people to wear them but most have reverted to cloth masks because they do get condensation inside them.  It doesn't bother me at all but my husband and kids just pinch the nose part or tip the mask off their chins and wipe them out with a clean tissue.  I really think they are terrific and will be wearing them until we know we can stop.

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Glad you are happy with the Happy Mask... I posted about it on the other thread because it was developed by a fellow Berkeley mom (friend of a friend) and grew in popularity in our Berkeley moms FB group. I don't usually pass along products, but in this case, I know everyone is searching for masks that can actually be worn for long periods of time for themselves and their children. Plus have filtering is a big plus. https://www.happymasks.co/ Adding the direct link because this is different than the Germany Happy Mask.

The other mask I would suggest for long period of wear for comfort and is reusable, but it does not have filtering properties is the Under Armor mask for athetes. You can read about it here. https://about.underarmour.com/news/2020/05/introducing-ua-sportsmask It did sell out within an hour on their website. It is on back order right now. https://www.underarmour.com/en-us/ua-sportsmask/pid1368010 This is a reasonable option is you are looking for a mask but not necessarily for filtration.

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11 minutes ago, calbear said:

Glad you are happy with the Happy Mask... I posted about it on the other thread because it was developed by a fellow Berkeley mom (friend of a friend) and grew in popularity in our Berkeley moms FB group. I don't usually pass along products, but in this case, I know everyone is searching for masks that can actually be worn for long periods of time for themselves and their children. Plus have filtering is a big plus. https://www.happymasks.co/ Adding the direct link because this is different than the Germany Happy Mask.

 

Can you confirm that it’s supposed to be filtering for wearer, not just to help protect others?

 

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29 minutes ago, DoraBora said:

Do you think that's a result of the design -- the way it has extra space in the front?  I've seen a homemade design out there that has pleats over the nose so that the mask puffs out.  I'm trying to get motivated to make one.

Partly the design.

but it is literally very lightweight 

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2 hours ago, Terabith said:

I'm wondering about why New York had such a big jump from the middle of March to the end of March, when other parts of the country with the same number of cases in mid March did not.  I was looking back at numbers.  On March 11, didn't New York have like 200 cases?  But it was up to like 25,000 two or three weeks later.  I'm wondering if the big difference was the announced "travel ban" with Europe in mid March?  I remember those pictures of airports, with thousands of people crammed together.  New York is a major hub.  Could it have been that that made the difference between the explosion of cases in NY versus say, Washington state?

I'm wondering if we all seemed to have similar numbers of cases at the beginning because we were all testing roughly the same amount of people per day, but of course not catching the real number and NY had so many more uncaught.

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