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1 hour ago, Kanin said:

I don't trust my interpretation of the paper, since I don't have a science background... hoping the vaccine shows promise!

 

I have now heard (but don’t know if this is true) that while the 6 vaccinated monkeys did get sick when exposed to SARS2, they had “mild” cases—apparently meaning not progressive to pneumonia stage. 

Not sure if that is enough os a sample to conclude it is still helpful even though not preventative.  If 80% of cases are “mild” 6 is a small sample for determining mildness rate was enhanced. 

This report came from Telegraph apparently, but I am paywalled out.

 I have not seen anything that looks official and scientific. 

 

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DS got home 3 hours ago!  ❤️❤️

Update-  my youngest is not only short of breath, coughing, dizzy, nausaues, and with headache-  she is also confused.  I called our doctor and talked with him and she is going to be going to the ER.

That's not a blanket right.  If my religion required human sacrifice, I can't practice it.  If my religion required sexual assault, I can't practice it. Freedom of religion isn't a blanket right

Posted Images

27403803_ScreenShot2020-05-26at3_25_54PM.thumb.png.bcf52ddc4729bd9b10d49282414b75c6.pngThis organization is tracking US nursing home Covid-19 deaths, they have some interesting infographs.  I've never heard of the organization, but their numbers seem to match up with others I've seen.

https://freopp.org/the-covid-19-nursing-home-crisis-by-the-numbers-3a47433c3f70

It is hard to find median age of US Covid-19 deaths, but from the info in these graphs, statistically it should be a number greater than 85.

Based on current CDC data, median age >75 years old.

I'd like to know the median age of death!  They have the number, they could easily report it.

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku

Edited by ElizabethB
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6 hours ago, EmseB said:

So China apparently tested 9 million people in Wuhan and found only 248 positives. Lol. Why not at least craft some believable lies?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/wuhan-tests-nine-million-people-for-coronavirus-in-10-days-11590408910?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/Q2wB5UN3EE

Apparently to make it more efficient they pooled the samples.  I’m not sure exactly how they did that but basically they tested 10 people’s samples together then if that came back positive they retested those 10 people.

I have no idea what “pooling the samples” looks like in practice but I’m wondering if it’s possible that that would dilute enough that a positive result might not show up given the tests are notoriously not that sensitive.

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6 hours ago, Pen said:

Hydroxychloroquine, South Korea—post exposure prophylaxis (this is the situation I would want it myself—before clearly sick, but when its apparent potential ability to reduce Spike protein (the crown ends) from binding to ACE2 receptors would be most helpful. 

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092485792030145X

This sounds positive but would be better if there was a control group I guess.  Especially given what we know about the way this spreads (sometimes a lot of spread from one person, sometimes almost zero).  It sounds like it might be best to be done under supervised conditions to monitor and discontinue if side effects occurred.  

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8 hours ago, Pen said:

 

I have now heard (but don’t know if this is true) that while the 6 vaccinated monkeys did get sick when exposed to SARS2, they had “mild” cases—apparently meaning not progressive to pneumonia stage. 

Not sure if that is enough os a sample to conclude it is still helpful even though not preventative.  If 80% of cases are “mild” 6 is a small sample for determining mildness rate was enhanced. 

This report came from Telegraph apparently, but I am paywalled out.

 I have not seen anything that looks official and scientific. 

 

I’m also curious to know whether the severity level in monkeys is typically similar to that in humans or not.  

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33 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

This sounds positive but would be better if there was a control group I guess.  Especially given what we know about the way this spreads (sometimes a lot of spread from one person, sometimes almost zero).  It sounds like it might be best to be done under supervised conditions to monitor and discontinue if side effects occurred.  

 

Absolutely I agree with discontinuing if side effects!

But also remember that for ?decades? Travelers to malarial areas like zAfrica and India could take quinones along with them to take, including for not infrequently  two year assignments when not expecting to have access to medical help or monitoring.  

 

 

I don’t think there’s a very effective or humane way to do a control group because there’s no way to know how many would get it in any given group and too many differences between nursing homes etc to make them consistent as in a laboratory.

I think pretty much in such a situation they are dealing with an old medicine, which does have serious side effects and risks, but mostly when used long term iirc from being offered it for AI. 

 

Personally I think it is a situation where if anyone wants to opt out or wants their relatives not to be treated if they think it’s too dangerous, or if they havevrisk factors or know adverse reactions to quinones, they shouldn’t have it, but otherwise, what else do you have to suggest that might be more likely to help in a situation like that? And if nothing then I think using prophylactic HCQ makes sense — similar to if there were a malaria outbreak at a time when it wasn’t expected to be HCQ resistant. 

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50 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Apparently to make it more efficient they pooled the samples.  I’m not sure exactly how they did that but basically they tested 10 people’s samples together then if that came back positive they retested those 10 people.

I have no idea what “pooling the samples” looks like in practice but I’m wondering if it’s possible that that would dilute enough that a positive result might not show up given the tests are notoriously not that sensitive.

 

Typically, yes, it means combining groups so that fewer total tests are needed and then if any group test is positive they can check the individuals. And usually I think it’s considered a good way to get large numbers of people tested reasonably quickly. 

 

I think you are right about potential problems doing that with so many false negatives 

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Just now, Pen said:

 

Absolutely I agree with discontinuing if side effects!

But also remember that for ?decades? Travelers to malarial areas like zAfrica and India could take quinones along with them to take, including for not infrequently  two year assignments when not expecting to have access to medical help or monitoring.  

 

 

I don’t think there’s a very effective or humane way to do a control group because there’s no way to know how many would get it in any given group and too many differences between nursing homes etc to make them consistent as in a laboratory.

I think pretty much in such a situation they are dealing with an old medicine, which does have serious side effects and risks, but mostly when used long term iirc from being offered it for AI. 

 

Personally I think it is a situation where if anyone wants to opt out or wants their relatives not to be treated if they think it’s too dangerous, or if they havevrisk factors or know adverse reactions to quinones, they shouldn’t have it, but otherwise, what else do you have to suggest that might be more likely to help in a situation like that? And if nothing then I think using prophylactic HCQ makes sense — similar to if there were a malaria outbreak at a time when it wasn’t expected to be HCQ resistant. 

In that study they had at least one health care worker opt out because they didn’t believe it would work.  They could have included them as a at least a single control.  Maybe if more people are sketchy over it they can be used as a control group.  But measuring exposure levels etc must be hard as well.

im guessing prophylactic use might be safer because the concerns are more around increased risk due to covid.

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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Apparently to make it more efficient they pooled the samples.  I’m not sure exactly how they did that but basically they tested 10 people’s samples together then if that came back positive they retested those 10 people.

I have no idea what “pooling the samples” looks like in practice but I’m wondering if it’s possible that that would dilute enough that a positive result might not show up given the tests are notoriously not that sensitive.

Well that and it seems like with the known false *positive* rates of most tests they'd even get higher than the 150(?) they are reporting. It all just seems like such obvious lying.

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4 minutes ago, EmseB said:

Well that and it seems like with the known false *positive* rates of most tests they'd even get higher than the 150(?) they are reporting. It all just seems like such obvious lying.

 

Or maybe they have a remedy for it working fairly well already?

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19 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Or maybe they have a remedy for it working fairly well already?

I don’t think so because they still seem to be having an outbreak on the border with China/Russia.

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I’m not sure when this arrived on our state CV19 website, but today I just noticed that “create a bubble” has become a concept here, perhaps borrowed from NZ: 

 

Everyday Tips
Learn how to stay safe by creating a bubble.
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20 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I also wonder if there’s a relationship between the level of financial support available in an economic crisis and lower suicides rates.  

Anecdotal: My mom is a high-level admin at a larger hospital.  She has seen suicide attempts triple in the last eight weeks.  These are all people who have not lost income.

Edited by hopeallgoeswell
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2 minutes ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

Anecdotal: My mom is a high-level admin at a larger hospital.  She has seen suicide attempts triple in the last eight months.  These are all people who have not lost income.

 

We've only been dealing with coronavirus for three and a half months and the holidays/new year are ALWAYS a big time for suicides. 8 months goes back to October. IJS.

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Just now, Sneezyone said:

 

We've only been dealing with coronavirus for three and a half months and the holidays/new year are ALWAYS a big time for suicides. 8 months goes back to October. IJS.

Thanks for pointing that out.  I was trying to make dinner and thought I could type a few sentences on my phone while doing that.  Obviously, multitasking is not something I should do!

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2 hours ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

Anecdotal: My mom is a high-level admin at a larger hospital.  She has seen suicide attempts triple in the last eight weeks.  These are all people who have not lost income.

Also there is an EMT on this board who mentioned she had seen a huge spike in attempted suicides in her own daily work.

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Another "Is this true?"  I've seen it in a couple places: 

The flu vax is causing false positives for Covid19?

If true, that would help explain so much.

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15 minutes ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

Interestingly, I googled and there are a few articles from years ago, regarding studies that show recent vaccines can create false positive titers for coronavirus antibodies.  As more people get tested for covid antibodies, it might be interesting to see if there is an association.

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13 hours ago, EmseB said:

So China apparently tested 9 million people in Wuhan and found only 248 positives. Lol. Why not at least craft some believable lies?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/wuhan-tests-nine-million-people-for-coronavirus-in-10-days-11590408910?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/Q2wB5UN3EE

 

This doesn't strike me as obviously a lie at all.  I'm horrified that this number is so high, actually, considering how strongly they have been trying to stomp the virus out in that city and for how long.  This suggests that there are a *lot* of undetected cases even in places that seem to have the epidemic under control right now.

Pooled testing is also being used elsewhere and it is supposed to reduce the false positive rate when testing low-incidence populations.

These are very worrisome results.  

I have been somewhat skeptical of Paul Romer's call for mass testing but am starting to think that perhaps he might be right after all.

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8 hours ago, ElizabethB said:

 

https://freopp.org/the-covid-19-nursing-home-crisis-by-the-numbers-3a47433c3f70

It is hard to find median age of US Covid-19 deaths, but from the info in these graphs, statistically it should be a number greater than 85.

Based on current CDC data, median age >75 years old.

I'd like to know the median age of death!  They have the number, they could easily report it.

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku

It does seem hard to find that number, though I know I’ve seen various articles that included median age statistics. So far I found some for Michigan, where the median age of Covid19 deaths is 76. https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/05/09/coronavirus-covid-19-cases-death-toll-pandemic/3103300001/

I found a few more. It ranges widely, being upper 60s some places and as high as mid-80s others. I would guess that all depends on where the big outbreaks have happened. More nursing homes will mean higher median age while workplace outbreaks will mean younger. The median age of those infected seems to run about twenty years younger than the median age of those who die. 
 

3 hours ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

Anecdotal: My mom is a high-level admin at a larger hospital.  She has seen suicide attempts triple in the last eight weeks.  These are all people who have not lost income.

😢 I’m sorry to hear. As an anecdotal not directed at you, but I’ve noticed an odd correlation that the people I know of who were were anti shutdown and gave the potential for increased suicides as one of their reasons are the same people I now hear reporting suicide spikes. Like I’ve said in another post, I’ve been bothered since this was just starting at all the talk about how people would commit suicide if we had to stay at home. It’s such a suggestible thing with high susceptibility to social contagion, particularly for young people, that it has made me worry about a self fulfilling prophecy 😢

6 hours ago, EmseB said:

Well that and it seems like with the known false *positive* rates of most tests they'd even get higher than the 150(?) they are reporting. It all just seems like such obvious lying.

Can you share what you mean about false positive rates? I know about the high rate of false negatives with some of the tests, but the fake Facebook story someone shared about flu vaccines making people test positive is the only place I heard talk of false positives. 
 

eta: I’m seeing that false positives are extremely rare. Rare enough as to approach zero. https://www.unionleader.com/news/health/coronavirus/state-official-false-positive-covid-19-tests-very-rare-not-so-with-false-negatives/article_369216dc-3a09-5139-8a29-0520bc3c9d63.html
I did find a story about false positives, but then I saw the website it was on was filled with stories about the dangers of 5G and why wearing a mask is a serious heath risk, along with other headlines I didn’t even understand 😳

Edited by kand
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https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-27/coronavirus-testing-queensland-death-dies/12287058
 

this isn’t great news in australia

a 30 year old man has died with coronavirus.  He had a “complicated medical history”.  The other worrying part though is he’s from a small town (4,500 people) and there’s no known link with a known case indicating a silent transmission chain might be going on.

edited to add turns out he lives in a fly in fly out mining town.  He’s not worked since November but his partner works in a shop.  

Edited by Ausmumof3
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3 hours ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

Anecdotal: My mom is a high-level admin at a larger hospital.  She has seen suicide attempts triple in the last eight weeks.  These are all people who have not lost income.

I can’t find any stats for the US but several people are saying this.  That’s why I was wondering if finances was a piece of the puzzle that explained the different between Aus and US.  The only other thing I can think of is that the government here has spent quite a bit on mental health resourcing so maybe that has helped.  Lockdowns are common to both countries. The only other difference is the restrictions have been slightly more mild and seem to have really controlled things more quickly.  Maybe it’s been easier to hold out hope when you think it’s actually achieving something.

I do know of at least one person whose mental health stuff has been exacerbated though.

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9 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I can’t find any stats for the US but several people are saying this.  That’s why I was wondering if finances was a piece of the puzzle that explained the different between Aus and US.  The only other thing I can think of is that the government here has spent quite a bit on mental health resourcing so maybe that has helped.  Lockdowns are common to both countries. The only other difference is the restrictions have been slightly more mild and seem to have really controlled things more quickly.  Maybe it’s been easier to hold out hope when you think it’s actually achieving something.

I do know of at least one person whose mental health stuff has been exacerbated though.

My mom works with the military, so there was no loss of income, people were on the younger side, (20s), and all had free access to mental health resources. She speculated that since we are social creatures, keeping individuals isolated for months and months while the goal posts are constantly moving is erasing hope for the future.  She said some more about freedoms and oaths, but that's probably not for this forum. 
 

I hope the person you know gets the help he/she needs. 

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52 minutes ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

My mom works with the military, so there was no loss of income, people were on the younger side, (20s), and all had free access to mental health resources. She speculated that since we are social creatures, keeping individuals isolated for months and months while the goal posts are constantly moving is erasing hope for the future.  She said some more about freedoms and oaths, but that's probably not for this forum. 
 

I hope the person you know gets the help he/she needs. 

Yes.  But the posts above mentioned show that at this point this hasn’t happened in Aus or Netherlands in spite of restrictions so there must be another factor?

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1 hour ago, kand said:

It does seem hard to find that number, though I know I’ve seen various articles that included median age statistics. So far I found some for Michigan, where the median age of Covid19 deaths is 76. https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/05/09/coronavirus-covid-19-cases-death-toll-pandemic/3103300001/

I found a few more. It ranges widely, being upper 60s some places and as high as mid-80s others. I would guess that all depends on where the big outbreaks have happened. More nursing homes will mean higher median age while workplace outbreaks will mean younger. The median age of those infected seems to run about twenty years younger than the median age of those who die. 
 

😢 I’m sorry to hear. As an anecdotal not directed at you, but I’ve noticed an odd correlation that the people I know of who were were anti shutdown and gave the potential for increased suicides as one of their reasons are the same people I now hear reporting suicide spikes. Like I’ve said in another post, I’ve been bothered since this was just starting at all the talk about how people would commit suicide if we had to stay at home. It’s such a suggestible thing with high susceptibility to social contagion, particularly for young people, that it has made me worry about a self fulfilling prophecy 😢

Can you share what you mean about false positive rates? I know about the high rate of false negatives with some of the tests, but the fake Facebook story someone shared about flu vaccines making people test positive is the only place I heard talk of false positives. 
 

eta: I’m seeing that false positives are extremely rare. Rare enough as to approach zero. https://www.unionleader.com/news/health/coronavirus/state-official-false-positive-covid-19-tests-very-rare-not-so-with-false-negatives/article_369216dc-3a09-5139-8a29-0520bc3c9d63.html
I did find a story about false positives, but then I saw the website it was on was filled with stories about the dangers of 5G and why wearing a mask is a serious heath risk, along with other headlines I didn’t even understand 😳

I had read there would absolutely be a certain rate of false positives for people who had previously had the virus. In a city hit as hard as Wuhan, testing nine million people, it seems like the rate would be pretty high. I guess you do have to take Chinese state media at their word that they actually completed 9 million tests accurately in that amount of time and I don't know why anyone would necessarily believe that anyway.

It wasn't a conspiracy site but I can't find it now. All I can find are articles about how to keep from getting false positives on per tests, which makes it seem like they exist, but I can't find the article I read a few days ago.

I guess ultimately I'd probably be more concerned about false negatives which are much more likely, but the numbers don't make sense to me with that amount of people.

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2 minutes ago, EmseB said:

I had read there would absolutely be a certain rate of false positives for people who had previously had the virus. In a city hit as hard as Wuhan, testing nine million people, it seems like the rate would be pretty high. I guess you do have to take Chinese state media at their word that they actually completed 9 million tests accurately in that amount of time and I don't know why anyone would necessarily believe that anyway.

It wasn't a conspiracy site but I can't find it now. All I can find are articles about how to keep from getting false positives on per tests, which makes it seem like they exist, but I can't find the article I read a few days ago.

I guess ultimately I'd probably be more concerned about false negatives which are much more likely, but the numbers don't make sense to me with that amount of people.

Well in South Korea they had people testing positive weeks after recovering but when they tried to culture the virus it didn’t grow because it was just dead virus still being shed so maybe the same thing is happening in Wuhan?  It’s not a false positive in the sense that the person never had the virus but it’s not an infection risk.  

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1 hour ago, JennyD said:

 

This doesn't strike me as obviously a lie at all.  I'm horrified that this number is so high, actually, considering how strongly they have been trying to stomp the virus out in that city and for how long. 

But how many people left Wuhan when all that happened and then came back?

And I've never believed China or Wuhan had this under control anyway. No one actually believe there were days of zero new cases right?

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1 minute ago, EmseB said:

But how many people left Wuhan when all that happened and then came back?

And I've never believed China or Wuhan had this under control anyway. No one actually believe there were days of zero new cases right?

I have no idea what to believe now.  Things have been really reduced here in Aus with social distancing.  China have used some pretty draconian lockdown measures.  So maybe they have knocked it down pretty hard.  The one thing I know for sure is we probably won’t know the truth anyway.  It’s hard enough getting true stats out of our own countries let alone one that suppresses information like China 

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10 hours ago, ElizabethB said:

27403803_ScreenShot2020-05-26at3_25_54PM.thumb.png.bcf52ddc4729bd9b10d49282414b75c6.pngThis organization is tracking US nursing home Covid-19 deaths, they have some interesting infographs.  I've never heard of the organization, but their numbers seem to match up with others I've seen.

https://freopp.org/the-covid-19-nursing-home-crisis-by-the-numbers-3a47433c3f70

It is hard to find median age of US Covid-19 deaths, but from the info in these graphs, statistically it should be a number greater than 85.

Based on current CDC data, median age >75 years old.

I'd like to know the median age of death!  They have the number, they could easily report it.

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku

Both the variation across the country and some of the regional similarities are striking. The N.Y. percentage is so low. Thanks for posting! 

Edited by Frances
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43 minutes ago, Frances said:

Both the variation across the country and some of the regional similarities are striking. The N.Y. percentage is so low. Thanks for posting! 

I read that they categorized any death in NY as a hospital death if they had previously been in a nursing home and are only counting those that die in a nursing home as a nursing home death, but I'm not sure about that.

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1 hour ago, EmseB said:

But how many people left Wuhan when all that happened and then came back?

And I've never believed China or Wuhan had this under control anyway. No one actually believe there were days of zero new cases right?

 

this is worth a read

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While we are talking about China is there some kind of push to increase birthrate?  I’ve seen several things about fertility lately.  This is the latest from global times

“Chen Xiangqun, NPC deputy and Executive Vice Governor of NE China's Liaoning Province, proposes completely lifting #FamilyPlanning policies in Northeast China first. #TwoSessions”

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2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I have no idea what to believe now.  Things have been really reduced here in Aus with social distancing.  China have used some pretty draconian lockdown measures.  So maybe they have knocked it down pretty hard.  

 

 I agree.  Israel also knocked down the daily new case rate to single digits with a lockdown that was much stricter than anything in the US but still not as draconian as what was done in Wuhan.  And China did (does?) mandatory centralized quarantine, which by all reports dramatically reduces family transmission rates.  (In Israel hotel-based quarantine was optional and AFAIK only available for some cases in especially crowded living situations.)  It seems entirely plausible to me that Wuhan had days or weeks of no new cases.  Which is why I am so concerned about this apparent discovery of a reservoir of 200+ previously undetected cases.

While obviously the Chinese government is not a reliable source of information, I also think that it is very dangerous to decide that we simply cannot learn anything useful about this virus from the news coming out of China.

 

 

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5 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

While we are talking about China is there some kind of push to increase birthrate?  I’ve seen several things about fertility lately.  This is the latest from global times

“Chen Xiangqun, NPC deputy and Executive Vice Governor of NE China's Liaoning Province, proposes completely lifting #FamilyPlanning policies in Northeast China first. #TwoSessions”

 

Conspiracy theories? 

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Has the new CDC estimate for fatality rate been discussed here? With the estimate being at 0.4% and asymptomatic infection at 35%, the overall fatality rate is really 0.26%, about twice that of the seasonal flu. Does this bring a little comfort?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

https://techstartups.com/2020/05/24/coronavirus-fatality-rate-low-0-26-cdc-says/

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The only false positive rates I've seen were in people who were sick and continued testing positive for a long time after.  I haven't seen anything about false positives otherwise.   I'm sure the numbers are much higher than most places are reporting.

Anecdotally:  I've talked to a few people who are having increased mental health issues/increases in anxiety and suicidal ideation due to the pandemic itself (fear of getting sick) and feeling like people aren't taking it seriously (anxiety at pictures of crowds, reports of people not wearing masks, coming close to agoraphobia).  

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9 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Yes.  But the posts above mentioned show that at this point this hasn’t happened in Aus or Netherlands in spite of restrictions so there must be another factor?

You mentioned finances and mental health as being possible differentiating factors.  I don't have overall stats for the U.S.  I was just relaying the one data point and how neither things you mentioned as possibly accounting for the difference between countries are factors for that one hospital. It was in a very young and active population who were essentially told to stay at home, get paid for doing nothing, and isolated for two weeks and then a month and then two months and then...all while watching the media do what the media does. Heck, maybe the difference is the way the media is handling this in different countries?  Maybe it is the number of hot spots a country has?  
 

There were very few covid patients in my mom's hospital, never more than one at a time.  They were all older with poor health to begin with and were discharged within a few days. None of the people under 60-65 who were diagnosed had any reason to be admitted.  Almost all of the other health services were put on hold. If it wasn't covid-related or you weren't on the verge of death, you probably weren't getting seen.  Her concerns, now that they are starting to open up, are 1. How to manage two months of backlogged appointments on top of current appointments. 2. How much extra care are all of the patients with pre-covid problems going to need because they were deemed non-essential and 3. Catching all of the illnesses, like cancer, that could have been caught and started treatment already. Outside of the few hotspots we have had, I think a lot of the hospitals here are in a similar situation. 

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3 hours ago, Malory said:

Has the new CDC estimate for fatality rate been discussed here? With the estimate being at 0.4% and asymptomatic infection at 35%, the overall fatality rate is really 0.26%, about twice that of the seasonal flu. Does this bring a little comfort?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

https://techstartups.com/2020/05/24/coronavirus-fatality-rate-low-0-26-cdc-says/

Huh, that is hard to wrap my head around. I dug into this a bit deeper because it feels too optimistic. And well I think it probably is too optimistic... This is a possibly legit IFR if you could protect those over 75 (give or take 5 years). This article does a good job explaining the difference we are seeing in IFRs in different locations. And once again highlights the need to protect this segment of our population.

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2 hours ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

There were very few covid patients in my mom's hospital, never more than one at a time.  They were all older with poor health to begin with and were discharged within a few days. None of the people under 60-65 who were diagnosed had any reason to be admitted.

That is very fortunate. You understand that’s not at all how it was many places though, right? This is why opening is happening in different places at different times. At the start, we had little preparation and no plan, so the blunt instrument of closing everything was all we had. We will never know how it would have been different in places that ended up with low numbers if there had not been stay home orders. As they said at the start,  if it worked, it would look like an over reaction afterward. 

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13 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

While we are talking about China is there some kind of push to increase birthrate?  I’ve seen several things about fertility lately.  This is the latest from global times

“Chen Xiangqun, NPC deputy and Executive Vice Governor of NE China's Liaoning Province, proposes completely lifting #FamilyPlanning policies in Northeast China first. #TwoSessions”

The one child policy was changed a couple years ago. Now China encourages two babies per marriage. In fact, some provinces mandate that when people apply for marriage license, they have to pay a "deposit" of thousands of dollars, which will be returned to them  when a second child is born. My birth province has this policy for a while now. So the Chinese government firmly controls reproduction rights. People had to pay a huge fine and lose their jobs for having a second child, and now people are fore-fined at time of marriage if they do not have two children down the road.. Absurdity. Stupidity. Utmost tyranny. 

And by the way, Global Times is a well known CCP propaganda mouthpiece. 

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42 minutes ago, Plum said:

I have a question.
If you have had C19, do you need to get the vaccination? 

Maybe.  It depends on if having C19 gives you antibodies strong enough to prevent subsequent re-infection. If it does, it depends on how long those antibodies last.  When you catch a common cold (another type of coronavirus, the immunity often only lasts a few months.

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1 hour ago, StellaM said:

 

Ugh.  Rats in NYC were already a problem.

cannabalistic rats in NYC and Sydney problem is starting to sound more like the zombie apocalypse .   

I wonder about rat borne illness. 😟

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1 hour ago, JadeOrchidSong said:

The one child policy was changed a couple years ago. Now China encourages two babies per marriage. In fact, some provinces mandate that when people apply for marriage license, they have to pay a "deposit" of thousands of dollars, which will be returned to them  when a second child is born. My birth province has this policy for a while now. So the Chinese government firmly controls reproduction rights. People had to pay a huge fine and lose their jobs for having a second child, and now people are fore-fined at time of marriage if they do not have two children down the road.. Absurdity. Stupidity. Utmost tyranny. 

And by the way, Global Times is a well known CCP propaganda mouthpiece. 

Yes I know that.  I just read it to get a bit of a clue as to what’s going on and then draw my own conclusions.

 

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