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gardenmom5

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Just found out that some workers at my mom’s aging in place complex have tested positive. ☹️ She’s in a senior apartment, so doesn’t interact as much with staff in as those in assisted living or the nursing home, but it’s still very concerning to me. She is at very high risk for multiple reasons. She is in one of the Midwest hotspots mentioned recently in the N.Y. Times. Many cases seems to be spreading from bars, as it is a city with a very active bar scene. My family has been worried about it ever since the WI Supreme Court overruled the Governor’s stay at home orders and pictures of packed bars appeared on the local news. 

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7 minutes ago, Frances said:

Just found out that some workers at my mom’s aging in place complex have tested positive. ☹️ She’s in a senior apartment, so doesn’t interact as much with staff in as those in assisted living or the nursing home, but it’s still very concerning to me. She is at very high risk for multiple reasons. She is in one of the Midwest hotspots mentioned recently in the N.Y. Times. Many cases seems to be spreading from bars, as it is a city with a very active bar scene. My family has been worried about it ever since the WI Supreme Court overruled the Governor’s stay at home orders and pictures of packed bars appeared on the local news. 

Oh no. That's scary. I'm sorry!

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55 minutes ago, Frances said:

Just found out that some workers at my mom’s aging in place complex have tested positive. ☹️ She’s in a senior apartment, so doesn’t interact as much with staff in as those in assisted living or the nursing home, but it’s still very concerning to me. She is at very high risk for multiple reasons. She is in one of the Midwest hotspots mentioned recently in the N.Y. Times. Many cases seems to be spreading from bars, as it is a city with a very active bar scene. My family has been worried about it ever since the WI Supreme Court overruled the Governor’s stay at home orders and pictures of packed bars appeared on the local news. 

I'm so sorry. This is what I'm afraid of - that the people going to bars, who feel themselves healthy enough to not get seriously ill, are going to go to work and spread it to those who will get seriously ill 😞

And our nursing homes here are reporting not having enough PPE. I REALLY think we shouldn't have opened up bars, pubs, gyms, etc where we knew people would be spreading it, until we had enough PPE for the nursing homes and such!!! I mean, do we think none of those workers will go to those places? 

Also, we only actually started enforcing the social distancing and occupancy guidelines for restaurants a few days ago! AFTER the spike in cases. Before that it was an open secret no one was following them. Two this week in the plaza my son works at were closed temporarily and fined for having packed crowds. (no masks) (and this isn't being reported anywhere I see by the counties/state - only know because my son works in the plaza)

Edited by Ktgrok
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Dh and I drove over to see my mom this morning. We have to pass many restaurants and they were all seriously packed. The parking lots were full and there were large groups outside of each one waiting to get in. I think they’re allowed to be at 75% capacity now but I couldn’t believe the crowds. We went to the store after and there were was no one but us and the employees wearing masks. It used to be the majority were wearing them but almost none today. We’re going to go back to hunker down mode and see what happens, especially since bars reopened just over a week ago here. 

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2 hours ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

So how long does the body take to repair such damage?  I'm assuming (hopefully) the body can repair itself over time? 

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200522/blood-vessels-in-lungs-split-in-response-to-covid19

This article *a month old) suggests that the lungs make and effort but that effort might make things worse in the long run. 

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25 minutes ago, Arctic Mama said:

That’s it?  I honestly thought it was an order of magnitude higher, maybe I was thinking cases and not deaths. For a plague among vastly different countries and resources that’s pretty encouraging, actually.

Well that’s assuming stats from Russia China and Iran etc are even vaguely accurate.  Or even the US for that matter.  Based on deaths over than number of cases IFR is around 5pc.  Given most are arguing for a CFR of .5 - 1 pc there would need to be around 5 - 10 times that I think.  

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I am on the Royal Children's Hospital for a medical app for twin 1. I am the only person wearing a mask. 

I was told at front door testing I need to keep it on as I have a cough from smoke exposure from the summer bushfires. 

Lots of distancing happening. Only one parent and no siblings or visitors allowed. 

Lots of cleaning. There are cleaners everywhere

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34 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Well that’s assuming stats from Russia China and Iran etc are even vaguely accurate.  Or even the US for that matter.  Based on deaths over than number of cases IFR is around 5pc.  Given most are arguing for a CFR of .5 - 1 pc there would need to be around 5 - 10 times that I think.  

I haven't seen any actual evidence that IFR is less than 5pc.

I have always thought people posting 1pc were just doing wishfully thinking 

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1 hour ago, Arctic Mama said:

That’s it?  I honestly thought it was an order of magnitude higher, maybe I was thinking cases and not deaths. For a plague among vastly different countries and resources that’s pretty encouraging, actually.

And of course there would be way more. Places like Indonesia etc are really struggling to test and I believe  some other countries are still only testing people who are very ill. 

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17 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

I haven't seen any actual evidence that IFR is less than 5pc.

I have always thought people posting 1pc were just doing wishfully thinking 

I haven’t either but I’ve seen most actual epidemiologists putting it at around that so I’m assuming they have more clue than me and my math.  For Aus our cfr comes out at around 1 pc and we are doing pretty solid testing.  On the other hand we don’t have overwhelmed hospitals and winter hasn’t hit and we probably had higher vit d levels due to the timing when it hit.

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43 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

I haven't seen any actual evidence that IFR is less than 5pc.

I have always thought people posting 1pc were just doing wishfully thinking 

Places where we can assume all or the vast majority of cases have been caught:

Vo, Italy 1.1% 

Diamond Princess 1.8% (older than average population)

Iceland 0.5%

New Zealand 1.4%

Antibody testing has shown the same - that once you discover the true number of cases (the denominator) the IFR looks similar to the numbers above.

 

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32 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

Because of the increase of numbers in Melbourne they have set up testing spots in those suburbs. anyone who has as much as a snivel was asked to get tested. Apparently the turn out is way more than they were anticipating. 

Sa have been doing that for a while now.  I didn’t realise Melbourne hadn’t.  That’s what made me feel kind of safe.  If they are Offering testing to anyone no matter how mild it seems fairly conclusive it’s not here.

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3 minutes ago, TracyP said:

Places where we can assume all or the vast majority of cases have been caught:

Vo, Italy 1.1% 

Diamond Princess 1.8% (older than average population)

Iceland 0.5%

New Zealand 1.4%

Antibody testing has shown the same - that once you discover the true number of cases (the denominator) the IFR looks similar to the numbers above.

 

So maybe more like 1pc in the end.  Which would indicate maybe 45,000,000 infections world wide.  Maybe?  Unless the death rates are higher in countries with more cases due to overwhelmed medical systems etc.

Edited by Ausmumof3
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4 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Sa have been doing that for a while now.  I didn’t realise Melbourne hadn’t.  That’s what made me feel kind of safe.  If they are Offering testing to anyone no matter how mild it seems fairly conclusive it’s not here.

They have been doing that in Vic as well, but have opened up extra today in the suburbs that have increased cases. Extra testing. A testing blitz

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56 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

They have been doing that in Vic as well, but have opened up extra today in the suburbs that have increased cases. Extra testing. A testing blitz

Oh yeah I see that makes sense!  They opened one up near the Barossa when we had the outbreak there from the Swiss and US tourists.  

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10 hours ago, Pen said:

Sweden - no oxygen for people over 80? 🥺😢

https://youtu.be/xk0TK_Syn9I

https://youtu.be/xk0TK_Syn9I

(Or over 60 plus risk factors.

sounds like a form of euthanasia 😲

interesting thread on this topic worth reading the comments.  At least one said that oxygen would be considered a comfort measure even if the person was not expected to survive.  Obviously it’s important where survival chances are low to make sure we aren’t doing medical interventions that increase suffering which frequently happens as well.  But I think many in their 60s and 70s still have a good chance of surviving the illness with the right treatment, even with underlying conditions.

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1 minute ago, Corraleno said:

How are they calculating the IFR?  Is it some factor multiplied by the CFR?  (The CFR, using Worldometer stats, would be 3.25%, even counting all the brand new cases.)

Oh - oops! I'm tired...our CFR is around 1 percent according to some stats they put out recently (the state)

Edited by Ktgrok
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10 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Extremely low deaths for US for yesterday (267) according to worldometer.  Lowest since March.  Not sure how they handle data that comes in later (on the day or backdated). They do seem to have the weekend dip which might relate to processing.

 

I think the 7 day moving average is more useful. That’s 627.   Still the lowest since March 31-April 1.   

We’ll see.  I think we are still seeing the decrease tail from NY an NJ lowering, and have yet to see the deaths from the rest of the country having an increase in cases because there’s a delay in that of a month or so. 

Edited by Pen
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2 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

Oh - oops! I'm tired...our CFR is around 1 percent according to some stats they put out recently (the state)

I wonder how they're getting only 1% — are they counting significantly more cases or fewer deaths than the Worldometer numbers?  

Worldometer currently lists 97,291 cases and 3,164 deaths, which is a CFR of 3.25%. And that's with the recent spike of new cases included, which deaths will not have caught up with yet. On June 1st, before the current spike began, Worldometer's numbers give a CFR of 4.33%. 

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16 new cases in Victoria,  including another teacher at the closed school that had a sick child attend. Apparently they are going to do door knocking in 2 suburbs to inform people 

Just because I am in Melbourne today thought I would give an update. All the public transport I could see was practically empty. The down town shopping district had less than 100 people, and of those half were cleaners. Security guards and public transport workers. 

I had to go into myer to get twin1 a pair of shoes as he was just told he doesn't need to wear his AFO. This is a big shop, 9 floors high. There would have been less than 30 people shopping in the whole shop. Above the train station are shops, most if them are closed, some are empty 

I am now on the city to country train. There are only 4 people in the carriage, including twin 1 and me

Edited by Melissa in Australia
Cause I cannot type
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13 minutes ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

Yikes.  I think a lot of people here are holding out hope that younger kids don't transmit.  But 3rd grade is pretty young.

Apparently the child had mild symptoms, but now 2 teachers have tested positive. School has only been back for 2 weeks for grade 3. The media says everyone at the school is now going to be tested. The school has closed again

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1 hour ago, Melissa in Australia said:

16 new cases in Victoria,  including another teacher at the closed school that had a sick child attend. Apparently they are going to do door knocking in 2 suburbs to inform people 

Just because I am in Melbourne today thought I would give an update. All the public transport I could see was practically empty. The down town shopping district had less than 100 people, and of those half were cleaners. Security guards and public transport workers. 

I had to go into myer to get twin1 a pair of shoes as he was just told he doesn't need to wear his AFO. This is a big shop, 9 floors high. There would have been less than 30 people shopping in the whole shop. Above the train station are shops, most if them are closed, some are empty 

I am now on the city to country train. There are only 4 people in the carriage, including twin 1 and me

I’m glad to hear people taking this seriously!

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1 hour ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

Yikes.  I think a lot of people here are holding out hope that younger kids don't transmit.  But 3rd grade is pretty young.

Could also be an asymptomatic adult transmitting to the child and other teachers I guess.  I still haven’t really seen any solid evidence kids don’t pass it on though 

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2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Could also be an asymptomatic adult transmitting to the child and other teachers I guess.  I still haven’t really seen any solid evidence kids don’t pass it on though 

From what I've read on the media the child is part of an extended family cluster. 3 schools have had to close for deep cleaning because of the extended family, but one of the schools has 2 teachers infected

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2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/coronavirus-hopes-fade-for-swedens-herd-immunity-experiment-2020-6?amp&r=US&IR=T
 

6.1pc of the population of Sweden had antibodies by the end of May.  Highest in some areas was up to 25pc still well short of the 60pc estimated for herd immunity.

Which puts them at 0.8% IFR. Sounds about right. I'm glad to see more confirmation of this lower IFR, but I hope my comments are never misunderstood. An IFR of 0.5-1% is still a staggering number of deaths. Sweden gives us clear evidence of that.

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9 hours ago, Corraleno said:

I wonder how they're getting only 1% — are they counting significantly more cases or fewer deaths than the Worldometer numbers?  

Worldometer currently lists 97,291 cases and 3,164 deaths, which is a CFR of 3.25%. And that's with the recent spike of new cases included, which deaths will not have caught up with yet. On June 1st, before the current spike began, Worldometer's numbers give a CFR of 4.33%. 

So, I was wrong. My COUNTY is 1% CFR, the state is 3% CFR. Sorry! 

9 hours ago, Melissa in Australia said:

16 new cases in Victoria,  including another teacher at the closed school that had a sick child attend. Apparently they are going to do door knocking in 2 suburbs to inform people 

Just because I am in Melbourne today thought I would give an update. All the public transport I could see was practically empty. The down town shopping district had less than 100 people, and of those half were cleaners. Security guards and public transport workers. 

I had to go into myer to get twin1 a pair of shoes as he was just told he doesn't need to wear his AFO. This is a big shop, 9 floors high. There would have been less than 30 people shopping in the whole shop. Above the train station are shops, most if them are closed, some are empty 

I am now on the city to country train. There are only 4 people in the carriage, including twin 1 and me

Thats so crazy that it is that empty with that few cases and busy as normal here. 

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Just saw this on the BBC:

 

 

Extra police sent to quarantined German tower block

image.gif.0ab4654273218b3b8191116da005ec95.gif
GettyCopyright: Getty

Police reinforcements have been sent to maintain a coronavirus quarantine on a tower block in the German city of Göttingen after violence erupted there on Saturday.

Some 700 people were placed in quarantine, but about 200 who attempted to get out clashed with police.

Residents attacked police with fireworks, bottles and metal bars. Officials say communication problems lie behind the clashes, with residents not understanding that they need to have a second, negative coronavirus test, before they can leave the block.

The quarantine was introduced on Thursday after two residents tested positive, but many more are thought to be infected.

In Berlin as well as Göttingen, whole apartment blocks have been quarantined after residents were infected. People’s homes have also been fenced off, with police preventing residents from going outside.

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8 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

 

Thats so crazy that it is that empty with that few cases and busy as normal here. 

We are taking it very seriously in Australia. 

Like I have said before most people here would like to go for elimination. The only way to suppress this monster is to be very serious about isolation and distancing. 

If we as a country weren't then the figures would be way way higher here 

Edited by Melissa in Australia
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I went to the nearest homeschool store. Five other adults were present: three customers (one pregnant), the owner, and an employee. One had a face covering but was not wearing it. The others did not even have them, despite the local requirement. Apparently people just have no interest in suppressing transmission.

It's one thing to dislike certain elected officials--and I'm no fan of the person whose name is attached to the mandate myself--but another thing to join Team Virus.

If the news is to be believed, this is widespread: the American public has decided if there's not a medical silver bullet for those who get sick, it's not worth making any effort to keep people alive and healthy. I'm disappointed, but this is consistent with a fair number of other decisions over the last forty years.

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"Boise and Ada County will move back into Stage 3 of Idaho’s original reopening process Wednesday, Central District Health announced Monday afternoon.

Bars will be closed, CDH said."

 
(Rising cases in Boise and Ada County, several cases traced to bars.)
 
Cases were declining before bars opened.
 
1894264012_ScreenShot2020-06-22at4_45_29PM.thumb.png.028743e0bf6fbd423a73f2f75f2aebb2.png
Edited by ElizabethB
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23 minutes ago, DawnM said:

I have seen it elsewhere.  The only thing is it only shows causes of deaths COVID has overtaken not those it didn’t.  I’m think some people might consider that as biased?  The chart only accounts for 7pc so presumably there is another 93pc of deaths that are from more common causes.  But still scary to see how many other diseases have been overtaken.

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28 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I have seen it elsewhere.  The only thing is it only shows causes of deaths COVID has overtaken not those it didn’t.  I’m think some people might consider that as biased?  The chart only accounts for 7pc so presumably there is another 93pc of deaths that are from more common causes.  But still scary to see how many other diseases have been overtaken.

 

Deleted. Think I had a bad information source. ☹️  

 

Edited by Pen
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9 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

I looked up statistics. Malaria is the world wide #2 cause of untimely death. Tuberculosis is number 1. Very possibly CV19 will over take TB by time a year is over.  

 

Oh wow!   But what does untimely death mean exactly?  Is that what we’re looking at with Covid deaths?

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1 hour ago, Pen said:

 

I’m not sure!!!

i think I may have had a bad information source!

 

here’s worldometer with a lot that are higher up chart than tuberculosis:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-number-of-deaths-by-cause

Well, both graphics could be correct if the first was specifically about infectious diseases and the second includes all causes of death. The one linked above also has a single category for "respiratory diseases," rather than breaking them out. Here is an article specifically on the top 10 killers that are infectious diseases, but even they lump various respiratory infections into a category, various diarrheal diseases into a category, etc. So it's quite possible that if infectious diseases were broken out individually that CV19 would be near the top, below TB and possibly HIV-Aids.

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