wuhan - coronavirus

[TCB]

2 hours ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I always wonder if there is any repentance at all from church leaders who allowed situations like this to happen. Most of the time they seem to just dig in deeper and deny any responsibility. It makes me mad too.

I wish they would be brave enough to stand up and tell people about it because it may persuade other churches to not take the risk.

[prairiewindmomma]

4 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Agh.

I Don’t have the words for that. I expect it could happen in many places.

 I wonder how many are symptomatic.

 

I hope it doesn’t get into the La Ronde area Native American population where many may be at extra high risk of serious cases and death.

 

Honestly, this combined with what's been happening in Newport and elsewhere makes me think we have a ton of asymptomatic spread going on in clusters.  They only caught the extent of the Newport outbreak after a few symptomatic cases kept popping up. Once they finally committed to testing everyone in the seafood processing plants they finally discovered the extent of things (I think that one is pushing 200 cases).  That's been the same case with all of the frozen fruit processing plants, the chicken plants, etc.  Oregon just isn't doing the testing that it needs to for this all to be under control.

On one hand, I'm super glad that we're seeing mostly mild disease activitity, and on the other hand, we know that exponential spread is likely to start happening soon. Our state caseload is already up 150% this week.

[prairiewindmomma]

4 minutes ago, Happymomof1 said:

Except that those over 70 are the LEAST compliant and have been from the start. So if they will not protect themselves????

I had to have a very frank discussion with my parents and other elderly relatives.  They are very aware that they will not be in priority in case of a vent shortage and that their individual risk calculation is much higher.  My parents have chosen to mask, and the elderly relative has chosen not to. She thinks the social isolation isn't worth it, and she'd rather see her friends and neighbors and go to restaurants and her card playing with what time she has left in mortal life. I don't know that her personal calculus is wrong, but she has the potential to be a bit of a Typhoid Mary. She sees hundreds of people in a week.  She doesn't seem to be able to grasp the ethical implications of her actions (visiting her friends on the patio of the assisted living facility when visits in building are banned, not telling other fragile family the extent to which she is out and about, etc.).  She doesn't grasp that choosing her own actions has consequences for others. This all seems very abstract to her because she hasn't had it hit her circle yet.

[TCB]

10 minutes ago, kbutton said:

Meanwhile, this was on my FB feed, unfortunately. As one person pointed out, how can it be every day but also one specific day, lol! People are driving me nuts.

It's crazy! I can understand why people might make a point about wearing one but why make a point about not wearing one. Just don't wear it. It's like that British atheist, can't think of his name right now, who pays for ads on buses trying to persuade people to not believe in God. What is the point in making the effort about something you don't believe in?

[Pawz4me]

16 minutes ago, Happymomof1 said:

Except that those over 70 are the LEAST compliant and have been from the start. So if they will not protect themselves????

That's not at all what I'm seeing here. Almost ALL the elderly people I see are masking. All the ones in my family absolutely are. But I do almost always do my errands very early, so it may be I'm tending to see the elderly population that's most concerned about the virus.

[kbutton]

Some fairly recent Ohio analysis: https://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/2020/06/mapping-ohios-41576-coronavirus-cases-updates-on-the-latest-case-death-trends.html

While deaths are higher in the older age brackets, the distribution of infection in the 50+ crowd is pretty even across age groups.

Quote

One-in-281 Ohioans have now reported to have been infected with coronavirus.

Mask wearing in my part of the state is still kind of low, but I am seeing more than I was at first. My DH has done most of the shopping, but I have been able to go out a time or two, and it's not been swamped. There is a distinct pattern of mask wearers being careful about distancing and non-mask wearers tending to not really social distance either (so much for, "We don't need masks if we're social distancing" that I hear locally).

[ScoutTN]

1 hour ago, Pen said:

 

IME, Some people in some denominations don’t believe the physical world has much value.   

An excellent example of the practical impact of bad theology. Theology is always practical - it has an effect on everyday thoughts and actions.

Edited June 16, 2020 by ScoutTN

[Pen]

1 hour ago, Happymomof1 said:

Except that those over 70 are the LEAST compliant and have been from the start. So if they will not protect themselves????

 

Do you have state by state or national statistics on that? Or international statistics. 

 

It does not fit with my irl personal observations. 

Except perhaps for people too poor to buy or physically unable to make or wear them, such as perhaps in nursing homes where residents on Medicaid may only be given a few dollars a month for all personal needs such as toothpaste etc, and may have no ability to buy a mask and probably  also not the means (cloth, needles, thread, scissors etc) to make them even if they still would be capable of that... 

[Pen]

On the FB Feed No masks thing, @kbutton or anyone who can answer:  I don’t do FB— does something being on feed mean from a known person? Of like an ad? Or from FB itself? 

 

[Arcadia]

15 minutes ago, Pen said:

On the FB Feed No masks thing, @kbutton or anyone who can answer:  I don’t do FB— does something being on feed mean from a known person? Of like an ad? Or from FB itself? 

 

It’s not on my FB feed. I have to search for it.

[kbutton]

31 minutes ago, Pen said:

On the FB Feed No masks thing, @kbutton or anyone who can answer:  I don’t do FB— does something being on feed mean from a known person? Of like an ad? Or from FB itself? 

In my case, known friend that has lost his ever loving mind. 

[Ausmumof3]

New study shows children get infected at around half the rate of adults.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0962-9

[Corraleno]

6 hours ago, prairiewindmomma said:

Oregon has an outbreak tied to a small, rural county. A church there began holding meetings. Facebook photos show the congregation sitting shoulder to shoulder, unmasked. The same church hosted a testing date. Under 400 tests done, 100ish positive so far, not all processed. 

Previously known cases in county was 22.

Details and firm numbers here: https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/06/99-new-coronavirus-cases-reported-in-union-county.html

That county is up to 240 cases now, up from only 22 on Sunday. The church not only held packed services during lockdown, they recently held a wedding and a graduation ceremony with more than 100 people at each. So far the positive test rate for the county is 22%.

This is why I don't understand the idea that there's no need for masks or social distancing if you live in an area where "cases are low." Cases are low... until they're not, and then it's too late. It only takes one or two infected people in a large gathering or busy workplace, before a county with a "handful any cases" ends up with one of the fastest growing outbreaks in the country.

[73349]

Guidance to prevent airborne transmission from Dr. Joseph Allen of Harvard's T.H. Chan School of Public Health:

Quote

Be SMART:

Stay at home.
Mask wearing when out.
Avoid large gatherings.
Refresh indoor air.
Ten feet is better that 6.

From news article: https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/researchers-suggest-coronavirus-can-linger-in-air-for-hours/19120508/

 

DH's office is not on the list of pilot sites for re-opening next month, fortunately.

[Arcadia]

@Pen@Ausmumof3@TCB@wathe

Dexamathasone; what I had as a medication to complement chemotherapy.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/steroid-drug-hailed-as--breakthrough--in-covid-19-as-trial-shows-it-saves-lives-12841502

“Steroid drug hailed as 'breakthrough' in COVID-19 as trial shows it saves lives

LONDON: A cheap and widely-used steroid called dexamethasone has become the first drug shown to be able to save lives among COVID-19 patients in what scientists said is a "major breakthrough" in the coronavirus pandemic.

Trial results announced on Tuesday (Jun 16) showed dexamethasone, which is used to reduce inflammation in other diseases such as arthritis, reduced death rates by around a third among the most severely ill of COVID-19 patients admitted to hospital.

The results suggest the drug should immediately become standard care in patients with severe cases of the pandemic disease, said the researchers who led the trials.

Britain's health minister said the state-run health service's standard hospital treatment for COVID-19 would include the drug from Tuesday afternoon, adding that Britain had stockpiled 200,000 courses of the treatment.

"This is a (trial) result that shows that if patients who have COVID-19 and are on ventilators or are on oxygen are given dexamethasone, it will save lives, and it will do so at a remarkably low cost," said Martin Landray, an Oxford University professor co-leading the trial, known as the RECOVERY trial. 

"It's going to be very hard for any drug really to replace this, given that for less than £50 (US$63.26), you can treat eight patients and save a life," he said in an online briefing.

His co-lead investigator, Peter Horby, said dexamethasone was "the only drug that's so far shown to reduce mortality - and it reduces it significantly."

"It is a major breakthrough," he said. "Dexamethasone is inexpensive, on the shelf, and can be used immediately to save lives worldwide."

There are currently no approved treatments or vaccines for COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus which has killed more than 431,000 people globally.

SAVE LIVES AROUND THE WORLD

England's chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, said Tuesday's announcement was "the most important trial result for COVID-19 so far", adding: "It will save lives around the world".

The RECOVERY trial compared outcomes of around 2,100 patients who were randomly assigned to get the steroid, with those of around 4,300 patients who did not get it.

The results suggest that one death would be prevented by treatment with dexamethasone among every eight ventilated COVID-19 patients, Landray said, and one death would be prevented among every 25 COVID-19 patients that received the drug and are on oxygen.

Among patients with COVID-19 who did not require respiratory support, there was no benefit from treatment with dexamethasone.

"The survival benefit is clear and large in those patients who are sick enough to require oxygen treatment, so dexamethasone should now become standard of care in these patients," Horby said.”

[Melissa in Australia]

21 new cases in Victoria today. 15 returned travellers in hotel lock down, 6 are community transition. Every day this week it has gone up day by day

[Bambam]

30 minutes ago, Happymomof1 said:

 No, just my observations in my town, my church and the town next door.  East Texas if it matters.

I"m in East Texas too. It seems to be a matter of pride to *NOT* wear masks. Individual liberty, you know.  I'm pretty sure people look down on you for wearing a mask in public here. I have friends who have been to Dallas and are amazed at how many are wearing masks there because it is so different from here.  The Onion article would be funny, except - for here, it is pretty much true. Ain't no COVID brave enough to attack true Texans. 

[math teacher]

• Oh yes, what's with East Texas? At church, less than half a dozen people wear masks. I had to go fill out paperwork today for a new job, and No Masks. 

[Pen]

2 hours ago, Bambam said:

I"m in East Texas too. It seems to be a matter of pride to *NOT* wear masks. Individual liberty, you know.  I'm pretty sure people look down on you for wearing a mask in public here. I have friends who have been to Dallas and are amazed at how many are wearing masks there because it is so different from here.  The Onion article would be funny, except - for here, it is pretty much true. Ain't no COVID brave enough to attack true Texans. 

 

Should be a mask that kills Covid and has on it just what you said, “Ain't no COVID brave enough to attack true Texans.“  and a picture of a virus with spike proteins being blown to smithereens as a picture on it

 

They should have “don’t breathe on me” “lone star” and so forth pattern masks too. 

[JennyD]

Israel update: 299 cases in the last 24 hours.  It was consistently under 20 three weeks ago.  And the increase is all over the country, not just in isolated locations.  Not Good. 

The numbers are not rising as fast as they were at the beginning of the epidemic, but it seems fairly clear that the test/trace/isolate system simply isn't working fast/well enough to break the chain of infection.

It is very unclear what comes next, however.  I can't imagine that the authorities will do nothing, but I also can't quite imagine what they will do, either.  The Health Ministry has been leading the country's response to the virus so far, but if it turns out to be necessary to reinstate restrictions I think there is likely to be some major reshuffling of authority. 

Some elements of the government (and the population) would really like to pretend that this isn't happening and that everyone can move on to other priorities, but the virus has other plans.  

 

[ktgrok]

17 hours ago, Happymomof1 said:

Ok, but what about my pastor? He wears a mask.  His announcement AGAIN this week reiterated how we should look out for others, show courtesy, wear masks, keep your distance.  The virus isn't gone, etc.  Yet when I went to church Sunday there were 3 ( including the head pastor) wearing a mask.  They have the marked off every other end.  In front of us at the other end sat two little old ladies, not masked, not related, sitting right next to each other.  An elderly woman I've known for a long, long time.  Served on a pastor search committee with her a couple of pastors ago. She was like, why is this like this?  I want to sit by my friends.  My husband tried to explain.  She said it wasn't necessary, walked around and her friends got out so she could sit by them.  No masks at all.  I have no doubt they are probably playing 42 together or whatever.

Our music minister is stressing caution as well, though obviously he cannot wear a mask and lead music.

But you say it is the pastor's responsibility.  He is making announcements.  He is talking to people with masks on.  That said our senior adult pastor( not head pastor, part time pastor for senior adults) doesn't wear a mask, despite having 12 stints or something like that.  He was head pastor 40 years ago, left for another church, retired, then came back to supervise senior adults. 

He is getting HEAVY HEAVY pushback for having 2 services to keep people distanced.  People want to worship together again.  In our churc structure, if he continued to do this, it could be conceivable the congregation would ask the personell committee to let him go.

So to blame a pastor for what a congregation does is wrong sometimes. It is community-wide problem not a pastor problem IMO.   It is black, white, Hispanic, Baptist, Methodist, Catholic, Cowboy, etc.  People around here think life is normal.

I'd say that while a Pastor can't control everything his parishoners do, he certainly can mandate mask wearing and social distancing, and use his influence to explain the reasoning. And if he can't get the majority of people on board, he can cancel services. Or resign. 

In the example you have where it was one old lady wanting to move, that is very different than the situation linked, where the congregation was making NO attempt at social distancing, no masks, etc. 

In your church, has the pastor reached out to the congregation to explain the theological reasons - indeed the scriptural reasons - for mask wearing at church? Has he framed it to everyone, in writing and verbally, as a matter of obeying the great commandment to love our neighbor? Or that it is our duty to serve the least of these, and that the care and respect we show others in the church and community is EXACTLY the care we show Jesus? 

If he has not done that, he is neglecting his duty as a leader. If he has, and some are being jerks about it, that is different. This is a chance though to truly lead and guide the people he has charge over, and they all need to step up. Will there be pushback? Yes. Will it be hard? Yes. Will their potentially be negative consequences? Yes. Does that excuse him from doing the right thing? No. A pastor that calls his flock to make hard choices but won't do that himself is not leading. 

And to Pen's comment...yeah, somehow the VERY bad theology - dare I say heresy - that the physical body doesn't matter has become widespread. If God didn't care about physical things, he wouldn't have made them! 

 

[ktgrok]

43 minutes ago, Happymomof1 said:

I guess I feel like that would that would be letting the best be the enemy of the good. Yes, on Facebook he has explained the reason MULTIPLE times.  He has from the pulpit.  He has from email.  If he cancels service he would be fired. If he is fired or resigned, where is he supposed to work?  He is 5-10  years or so from retirement with children in college. This isn't our church this is our state.  Our town in is two counties and when one of those counties nearly doubled total numbers yesterday by going up 104 in one day. The governor of the state said don't worry it's only the jail.  His parents and his wife's parents are getting frail. They need to be by them. No church in Texas, especially our denomination would have him with that kind of attitude that you want him to take. Nor the state next to us where some of his parents are.

We had a horrible 10 years before he came here.  Two pastors that only sowed divisiveness. ( One pastor was arrested for prostitution after he left here.) 4 years of interim. ( Not at the same time off and on.  This pastor is humble, puts others before himself, has worked since he came here for racial unity having joint services alternating between the African American church and ours. We are working with the poor in Honduras, establishing a separate non-profit.  He mobilizes our church to serve the community multiple ways.  He is the epitome of the humble servant. 

So yeah, I want him to stay because if he does what you suggest, our church will be in chaos. Go to another church you say?  They will be exactly like mine or worse as far as masks and not nearly as good at serving others. 

Oh and sshh he isn't for the person holding the rally in a neighboring state while most of our congregation is.  So if it is ok for him to have a rally, indoors with no social distancing then why in the heck does our pastor want us to wear masks and do it in church?? (Yes, I know you don't have to tell me.  I'm telling you what the congregation would say.) Yet he has continued to advocate for it.  Social distancing we are doing in that every other row is roped off.

I don't think I was clear. I was saying if he can't get ANYONE to wear masks or social distance, like the church in the article, than yeah, he has a huge leadership problem and needs to cancel services. 

If he is doing his best, explaining why this is a "serve your neighbor" matter not a "protect yourself" matter, and a few people just don't get it, that is different. Jesus himself couldn't convince everyone, lol. 

I do think maybe he needs to open EVERY service (and every pastor needs to) with a brief into about how he knows everyone is tired of masks and social distancing, but let this sacrifice of ours bring us closer to Jesus, who sacrificed so much more. Maybe have a moment of silence for all who are ill, etc. 

I do have to wonder, in these congregations who hate masking..what would they do if their pastor was higher risk? Tell him to suck it, they are doing to breathe on him anyway? Jesus was a healer! He didnt' say "well...the physical body doesn't matter, just let 'em die." He healed the body because the body does matter. Sigh.  

[Ausmumof3]

Worldwide cases appear to have jumped today but India reclassified a lot of deaths from March and April as covid meaning they reported over 2000 covid deaths in one day.  Germany also seems to have had a bit of an outbreak in an abattoir with 400 of 500 workers testing positive.  

[Kanin]

19 hours ago, prairiewindmomma said:

Fundamentally, it comes down to selfish behavior and a lack of empathy for others, not "personal freedom". They are personally free to not wear their masks when by themselves, but their not wearing it in public affects others. They are essentially taking away others freedom to choose to safely participate in activities. 

I agree with you. This article about school reopenings in other countries describes this sentiment well. In Taiwan, mask-wearing is done any time someone is sick, not just during covid times. It's considered common courtesy. Now, especially, wearing a mask is done out of respect and consideration for the community as a whole.  https://www.edweek.org/ew/articles/2020/06/11/how-schools-in-other-countries-have-reopened.html

[mom2scouts]

19 hours ago, kbutton said:

Some fairly recent Ohio analysis: https://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/2020/06/mapping-ohios-41576-coronavirus-cases-updates-on-the-latest-case-death-trends.html

While deaths are higher in the older age brackets, the distribution of infection in the 50+ crowd is pretty even across age groups.

Mask wearing in my part of the state is still kind of low, but I am seeing more than I was at first. My DH has done most of the shopping, but I have been able to go out a time or two, and it's not been swamped. There is a distinct pattern of mask wearers being careful about distancing and non-mask wearers tending to not really social distance either (so much for, "We don't need masks if we're social distancing" that I hear locally).

Yesterday I went to a store for the first time in three months. Your description is exactly what I saw. People wearing masks were also making an effort to stay away from others as much as possible. People not wearing masks appeared to be completely unaware of the pandemic.

[EmseB]

3 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

I'd say that while a Pastor can't control everything his parishoners do, he certainly can mandate mask wearing and social distancing, and use his influence to explain the reasoning. And if he can't get the majority of people on board, he can cancel services. Or resign. 

In the example you have where it was one old lady wanting to move, that is very different than the situation linked, where the congregation was making NO attempt at social distancing, no masks, etc. 

In your church, has the pastor reached out to the congregation to explain the theological reasons - indeed the scriptural reasons - for mask wearing at church? Has he framed it to everyone, in writing and verbally, as a matter of obeying the great commandment to love our neighbor? Or that it is our duty to serve the least of these, and that the care and respect we show others in the church and community is EXACTLY the care we show Jesus? 

If he has not done that, he is neglecting his duty as a leader. If he has, and some are being jerks about it, that is different. This is a chance though to truly lead and guide the people he has charge over, and they all need to step up. Will there be pushback? Yes. Will it be hard? Yes. Will their potentially be negative consequences? Yes. Does that excuse him from doing the right thing? No. A pastor that calls his flock to make hard choices but won't do that himself is not leading. 

And to Pen's comment...yeah, somehow the VERY bad theology - dare I say heresy - that the physical body doesn't matter has become widespread. If God didn't care about physical things, he wouldn't have made them! 

 

In our church the pastor cannot mandate anything. He is one elder on a board of elders. He is a servant of the body of Christ who happens to also be trained and examined to be qualified to teach the Word at services. He isn't able to mandate mask wearing. He can speak to the importance of it, and if he disagrees with the other elders and feels very strongly about it he can certainly leave the church, but he is not a dictator over the physical bodies of the members of the church. The elder board as a whole makes these decisions.

I'm not against mask wearing, but your idea of what pastors should be allowed to dictate to their congregation is a little bit off, I think. Leadership, in any case, in church, isn't reflected by taking the bull by the horns and forcing everyone to go along, with mask wearing or anything else. At least, that's not how any healthy church I've ever attended has operated.

Again, just for the record, I'm pro-mask wearing, especially in church.

[Joker]

Just read they tested 500 employees at Orlando International Airport and over half tested positive! 😳 Yikes!

[Jean in Newcastle]

30 minutes ago, Joker said:

Just read they tested 500 employees at Orlando International Airport and over half tested positive! 😳 Yikes!

Were they tested for active infection or antibodies?  Active infection would be yikes.  Antibodies wouldn't be. 

[ktgrok]

2 hours ago, Happymomof1 said:

 He does start every service the way you suggested with the exception of the moment of silence.

Didn't you read that our associate pastor who is in his 70's with 12 or more stints isn't masking.  I think a lot of the confusion comes from what the State of Texas says.  It says you should only mask if you cannot social distance.  If you can social distance, it isn't necessary.  And people are social distancing for the most part, people are.  A few give each other hugs, but who knows if they are seeing each other outside.  But there is social distancing in the service.  Many people come in with masks, but then take them off when the service begins and put them back on when it is over.   We are following the protocols outlines by the state of Texas:

Individuals should, to the extent possible, minimize in-person contact with others not in the individual’s household. Minimizing in-person contact includes maintaining 6 feet separation from individuals. When maintaining 6 feet separation is not feasible, other methods should be utilized to slow the spread of COVID-19, such as wearing a face covering or mask, washing or sanitizing hand frequently, and avoiding sharing utensils or other common objects.  Keep at least two empty seats (or six feet separation) between parties in any row, except as follows: - Two or more members of the same household can sit adjacent to one another, with two seats (or six feet separation) empty on either side. - Two individuals who are not members of the same household but who are attending together can sit adjacent to one another, with two seats (or six feet separation) empty on either side

So how is our pastor supposed to say everyone wear a mask when the government says it is ok not to as long as you maintain social distancing?

I'd like to think the guy in his 70s would realize masking isn't about protecting him, but about protecting the other people in the congregation. 

And it sounds like your church isn't like the one I was responding to - where they were meeting against the law, and packed in shoulder to shoulder in the pews, no social distancing, and no masks. If he is wearing one himself, encouraging others to do so strongly, mandating social distancing by marking pews or whatever, and  they are following the health guidelines of the area, that is totally different than the situation where I said the guy should resign or be fired. I'm not trying to conflate the two. Nor is it the same as the situation where masks are required by law, but the pastor won't wear one, nor encourage others to, even though it is the law. 

It sounds like if you had things change in your area, your pastor would reevaluate? I do think the health department is being unwise in not getting their messaging across better - it has been shown over and over that social distancing of 6 feet doesn't work in enclosed spaces for long periods of time, but you are right, that's not being made clear. 

But again, following the guidelines issues, wearing a mask himself, encouraging others to do so with scriptural guidelines, setting up social distancing markers, etc is very different than just kind of giving up. Whcih yes, some are doing. 

 

57 minutes ago, EmseB said:

In our church the pastor cannot mandate anything. He is one elder on a board of elders. He is a servant of the body of Christ who happens to also be trained and examined to be qualified to teach the Word at services. He isn't able to mandate mask wearing. He can speak to the importance of it, and if he disagrees with the other elders and feels very strongly about it he can certainly leave the church, but he is not a dictator over the physical bodies of the members of the church. The elder board as a whole makes these decisions.

I'm not against mask wearing, but your idea of what pastors should be allowed to dictate to their congregation is a little bit off, I think. Leadership, in any case, in church, isn't reflected by taking the bull by the horns and forcing everyone to go along, with mask wearing or anything else. At least, that's not how any healthy church I've ever attended has operated.

Again, just for the record, I'm pro-mask wearing, especially in church.

I should say that in what I was referring to, "pastor" shoudl substitute for "church leadership". Whatever form that takes. 

And pastors do force certain things...like how communion is handled, or who is allowed to preach, or if smoking is allowed in the building, etc etc. We just as a society haven't put mask wearing in the same category as refraining from smoking..yet. 

6 minutes ago, Arctic Mama said:

If most were asymptomatic remember that’s actually really good news.  Wide spread and low hospitalization or death is a positive for the overall deadliness of the virus and how we will have to live with it.  I remind myself that a place of employment with everyone infected or showing antibodies but nobody with more than a sniffle is a lot better than only scattered positives but a very high complication and death rate.

Well, our hospital rates in Orlando are going up, significantly, so even if those workers were not symptomatic, the people they likely spread it to may be. We don't know about deaths yet, due to how they are reported. 

[MEmama]

19 hours ago, Pen said:

On the FB Feed No masks thing, @kbutton or anyone who can answer:  I don’t do FB— does something being on feed mean from a known person? Of like an ad? Or from FB itself? 

 

We don’t have FB either, but when I showed this to DH he immediately declared “ Well, we're not going out that day!” followed by “sounds the work of a Russian troll “. It’s the kind of thing they seem to put out, in an effort to froth up a certain type of person. Sadly, despite the obviousness, it works on too many. 😞 

[ktgrok]

Interesting tidbit on how numbers are reported, who gets tested, etc...

A friend wanted the antibody test, as she was sick back in March, very badly, with lung issues and spread to the rest of the house. She decided to go to the free testing site in our county. It was at the convention center. It was over 3 HOURS waiting in the car, in a line. Then when she finally got to the testing itself, they told her they couldn't do just an antibody test - she had to do an antigen rapid test as well. She explained that she was there because she was ill months ago - there was no way an antigen test was what she needed. They insisted she had to do it if she wanted the other. So she did, and both were negative. But here is the thing - that antigen test she didn't want or need will now be part of the percent positive calculation. 

And of course, someone who is very sick is not going to want to wait in line for 3 hours. 

And then add in that all blood donations are screened for antibodies, and those are also part of the percent positive calculation done each week for my area. So antibody tests done on healthy people who are not sick are included in the same calculation as antigen tests given to sick people. 

Im not saying both are not important info, but they really should be kept separate in the calculations. It's messy. 

[Pen]

25 minutes ago, MEmama said:

We don’t have FB either, but when I showed this to DH he immediately declared “ Well, we're not going out that day!” followed by “sounds the work of a Russian troll “. It’s the kind of thing they seem to put out, in an effort to froth up a certain type of person. Sadly, despite the obviousness, it works on too many. 😞 

 

Whether domestic or from elsewhere, it certainly does sound like the kind of thing done to froth people up is right!

 

I wonder though if a reply that says what your husband said would be useful for @kbutton to try to chill out the friend...  Maybe if people thought such a thing was a Russian or whatever troll they would be less likely to forward it to their friends?

[kbutton]

1 minute ago, Pen said:

 

Whether domestic or from elsewhere, it certainly does sound like the kind of thing done to froth people up is right!

 

I wonder though if a reply that says what your husband said would be useful for @kbutton to try to chill out the friend...  Maybe if people thought such a thing was a Russian or whatever troll they would be less likely to forward it to their friends?

Interesting idea, but that thread is already heated, and this person is definitely feeling a bit of "because I don't agree with you, you think I'm stupid" kind of things from the several people who are engaging him with factual information.

I do post information about the trolls and bots and their prevalence from time to time when I see a good article, but not in response to specific posts.

I'll try to remember that I could post this as a question in the right context though!

[kbutton]

2 hours ago, mom2scouts said:

Yesterday I went to a store for the first time in three months. Your description is exactly what I saw. People wearing masks were also making an effort to stay away from others as much as possible. People not wearing masks appeared to be completely unaware of the pandemic.

Now that I've posted that about people with masks not distancing, my husband reports that during his outing yesterday, even people who weren't wearing masks were going out of their way to distance. Lol! 

[EmseB]

43 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

I'd like to think the guy in his 70s would realize masking isn't about protecting him, but about protecting the other people in the congregation. 

And it sounds like your church isn't like the one I was responding to - where they were meeting against the law, and packed in shoulder to shoulder in the pews, no social distancing, and no masks. If he is wearing one himself, encouraging others to do so strongly, mandating social distancing by marking pews or whatever, and  they are following the health guidelines of the area, that is totally different than the situation where I said the guy should resign or be fired. I'm not trying to conflate the two. Nor is it the same as the situation where masks are required by law, but the pastor won't wear one, nor encourage others to, even though it is the law. 

It sounds like if you had things change in your area, your pastor would reevaluate? I do think the health department is being unwise in not getting their messaging across better - it has been shown over and over that social distancing of 6 feet doesn't work in enclosed spaces for long periods of time, but you are right, that's not being made clear. 

But again, following the guidelines issues, wearing a mask himself, encouraging others to do so with scriptural guidelines, setting up social distancing markers, etc is very different than just kind of giving up. Whcih yes, some are doing. 

 

I should say that in what I was referring to, "pastor" shoudl substitute for "church leadership". Whatever form that takes. 

And pastors do force certain things...like how communion is handled, or who is allowed to preach, or if smoking is allowed in the building, etc etc. We just as a society haven't put mask wearing in the same category as refraining from smoking..yet. 

Well, our hospital rates in Orlando are going up, significantly, so even if those workers were not symptomatic, the people they likely spread it to may be. We don't know about deaths yet, due to how they are reported. 

Pastors don't enforce no smoking laws in buildings...that is civil law in most any place I've been, enforced by police or city officials. An elder or a deacon may ask someone who is smoking to leave the building but they don't hold any special power of enforcement in that regard over any other member of the congregation. Certainly pastors can influence congregants towards civil disobedience in any sphere, from mask wearing to protesting. But pastors or church leadership do not and cannot institute or enforce civil law themselves. They certainly make decisions about the well being of the flock, as you point out with how to administer communion, but they don't force anyone to partake. They don't force women to wear head coverings, even if some choose to. They could not, in my church, force anyone to wear a mask because, for starters, they have no authority to ask about disabilities that would prohibit mask wearing.

I'm not saying they don't have influence. But this idea that they should prohibit people from coming to worship (cancelling services or kicking them out as if they are smokers) seems to misunderstand the actual role and responsibility they have in the church.

Also wanted to ask...When people talk about hospital beds being filled are they talking about general capacity that is going up now that hospitals are opening up again for other procedures or hospitalized covid patients? And are these rates in context of what normal bed usage would be?

[Arcadia]

22 hours ago, kbutton said:

. My DH has done most of the shopping, but I have been able to go out a time or two, and it's not been swamped. There is a distinct pattern of mask wearers being careful about distancing and non-mask wearers tending to not really social distance either (so much for, "We don't need masks if we're social distancing" that I hear locally).

Mask is still compulsory when going into a store so everyone is masked inside stores but not social distancing. Stores use the PA system to remind people about social distancing. I won’t expect staff to remind people as I don’t want them to get hit by any “aggressive” customer. One of my late uncle had anger management issues (and DV) and I won’t want staff hurt by someone like him.

Some wear their mask on their chin once they are inside the store. It’s easier to get proper compliance at smaller stores like Trader Joe’s and Daiso where you can scan almost the entire store and all the customers in a sweeping glance quite easily. 

[Joker]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/texas-woman-tests-positive-for-covid-19-a-second-time/amp/

This woman in Texas seems to have tested positive twice and been sick twice. Article says in between she even donated plasma.

 

[Arcadia]

30 minutes ago, EmseB said:

 

Also wanted to ask...When people talk about hospital beds being filled are they talking about general capacity that is going up now that hospitals are opening up again for other procedures or hospitalized covid patients? And are these rates in context of what normal bed usage would be?

My county has a hospital utilization dashboard with hospital utilization tables, charts and trend lines which are quite clear. https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx#hospital

 

[ktgrok]

48 minutes ago, EmseB said:

Pastors don't enforce no smoking laws in buildings...that is civil law in most any place I've been, enforced by police or city officials. An elder or a deacon may ask someone who is smoking to leave the building but they don't hold any special power of enforcement in that regard over any other member of the congregation. Certainly pastors can influence congregants towards civil disobedience in any sphere, from mask wearing to protesting. But pastors or church leadership do not and cannot institute or enforce civil law themselves. They certainly make decisions about the well being of the flock, as you point out with how to administer communion, but they don't force anyone to partake. They don't force women to wear head coverings, even if some choose to. They could not, in my church, force anyone to wear a mask because, for starters, they have no authority to ask about disabilities that would prohibit mask wearing.

I'm not saying they don't have influence. But this idea that they should prohibit people from coming to worship (cancelling services or kicking them out as if they are smokers) seems to misunderstand the actual role and responsibility they have in the church.

Also wanted to ask...When people talk about hospital beds being filled are they talking about general capacity that is going up now that hospitals are opening up again for other procedures or hospitalized covid patients? And are these rates in context of what normal bed usage would be?

I guess I don't see how the local running store can say, you have to wear a mask,but not the local church? Or that churches can't go beyond what is required by law?

As for hospital beds, we have a newspaper tracking of utilization,but our dashboard shows visits to the ER for flu like symptoms and for Covid symptoms, on a weekly graph, and it is going up. 

[EmseB]

31 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

I guess I don't see how the local running store can say, you have to wear a mask,but not the local church? Or that churches can't go beyond what is required by law?

As for hospital beds, we have a newspaper tracking of utilization,but our dashboard shows visits to the ER for flu like symptoms and for Covid symptoms, on a weekly graph, and it is going up. 

1)Churches surely can, within certain parameters. But a manager or owner of a store is very different than a pastor or elder board. That is how a local running store can much more easily institute a storewide policy than an elder board or pastor. Pastors and church leadership aren't owners or bosses.

2) tangent, but a good jumping off point: in case there is a thought that I'm asking these questions in an effort to minimize what's going on wrt covid, that is not the case. I want numbers in context to be meaningful and not just, "hospital beds are full to 80%". Surely people realize that statistic be itself means nothing. I've been in a position in pre-covid times waiting hours for a bed to be freed up for an ER admit. The larger point is that statistics can be used in isolation to try to paint a picture that isn't accurate. I don't buy the conspiracy theories around fudging reporting numbers simply because it's an extremely complicated process to begin with. I have found it very difficult for these reasons to know how bad or good things are, and it seems there are always various interests at play to make things look worse or better than they are. Like, if contact tracing is good, you get a lot of asymptomatic positives that you wouldn't otherwise discover. So we want that to be happening. If hospitals open up for procedures and remain at 90-95% beds utilized (what I understand to be "normal"), then that is a good thing. But these are things that can sound bad minus any context. So if I ask clarifying questions, it is not in an interest to argue or be dismissive.

Edited June 17, 2020 by EmseB

[Frances]

On 6/16/2020 at 9:30 AM, prairiewindmomma said:

Oregon has an outbreak tied to a small, rural county. A church there began holding meetings. Facebook photos show the congregation sitting shoulder to shoulder, unmasked. The same church hosted a testing date. Under 400 tests done, 100ish positive so far, not all processed. 

Previously known cases in county was 22.

Details and firm numbers here: https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/06/99-new-coronavirus-cases-reported-in-union-county.html

Now up to 236 positive tests and related hospitalizations have started. Besides holding large indoor services without social distancing and including singing, they also had a wedding and a graduation. It is the largest outbreak in the state to date. This is a very rural area of the state.

https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/06/coronavirus-outbreak-linked-to-eastern-oregon-church-surpasses-200-cases.html
 

Edited June 17, 2020 by Frances

[Pen]

2 hours ago, Frances said:

Now up to 236 positive tests and related hospitalizations have started. Besides holding large indoor services without social distancing and including singing, they also had a wedding and a graduation. It is the largest outbreak in the state to date. This is a very rural area of the state.

https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/06/coronavirus-outbreak-linked-to-eastern-oregon-church-surpasses-200-cases.html
 

 

They might have thought that either being rural and with low numbers they’d be safe.  Similar to what I’m hearing from TX and similar.

Or maybe they expected the laying on of hands etc to be protective.

 

I listened to audiobook of Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic recently.  It is easy to hear how Africans were thinking a religious practice might save them from Ebola or Marburg or similar situations and think modern western countries know better—but that’s not necessarily true.  We all are subject to surrounding belief systems. 

 

[prairiewindmomma]

2 hours ago, Frances said:

Now up to 236 positive tests and related hospitalizations have started. Besides holding large indoor services without social distancing and including singing, they also had a wedding and a graduation. It is the largest outbreak in the state to date. This is a very rural area of the state.

https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/06/coronavirus-outbreak-linked-to-eastern-oregon-church-surpasses-200-cases.html
 

I really wish OHA would be more disclosive on the details of the event. Were most people feeling symptomatic? Asymptomatic? What are the age ranges of the Union County distribution (is it mostly an old or young congregation)? And when they contact trace, are they testing everybody? I really worry about greater spread into the community. La Grande only has about 13,000 people, so if you're talking about 400 tested, 236 positive.....that's concerning.  If everyone there was surprised they had it, asymptomatic spread/mild strain is fantastic....but the hospitalization numbers suggest that hasn't been true for everyone.

I saw an interesting article somewhere yesterday....ABC news? CNN? somewhere....where they were mapping disease activity over the interstate system. It's kind of a chicken/egg problem in that most major cities are intersected by an interstate....but it plotted disease activity along I-10, I-5, and I-85 and the map kind of made sense of some of the clusters. There's not much to LaGrande, but it does have a large Flying J gas station that a lot of truckers use to fill up at since gas stations in the Dalles are hard to get to and there is much along I-84 between the Dalles and Boise.

[Pen]

3 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

I really wish OHA would be more disclosive on the details of the event. Were most people feeling symptomatic? Asymptomatic? What are the age ranges of the Union County distribution (is it mostly an old or young congregation)? And when they contact trace, are they testing everybody? I really worry about greater spread into the community. La Grande only has about 13,000 people, so if you're talking about 400 tested, 236 positive.....that's concerning.  If everyone there was surprised they had it, asymptomatic spread/mild strain is fantastic....but the hospitalization numbers suggest that hasn't been true for everyone.

I saw an interesting article somewhere yesterday....ABC news? CNN? somewhere....where they were mapping disease activity over the interstate system. It's kind of a chicken/egg problem in that most major cities are intersected by an interstate....but it plotted disease activity along I-10, I-5, and I-85 and the map kind of made sense of some of the clusters. There's not much to LaGrande, but it does have a large Flying J gas station that a lot of truckers use to fill up at since gas stations in the Dalles are hard to get to and there is much along I-84 between the Dalles and Boise.

 

The church was in a smaller town, though probably people go to and from La Grande and there was also a non distanced BLM ally type protest in the county   

https://www.lagrandeobserver.com/coronavirus/covid-19-explosion/article_feb41198-af5c-11ea-b466-9bb49be5644c.html

I think this more local paper has overlapping coverage, but maybe a little extra detail

I gather testing happened due to some people having symptoms 

[Ausmumof3]

5 hours ago, Arctic Mama said:

If most were asymptomatic remember that’s actually really good news.  Wide spread and low hospitalization or death is a positive for the overall deadliness of the virus and how we will have to live with it.  I remind myself that a place of employment with everyone infected or showing antibodies but nobody with more than a sniffle is a lot better than only scattered positives but a very high complication and death rate.

I used to think this but some scans show around half of people who are asymptomatic have some level of lung damage.  The long term consequences of that are unknown.  

[TCB]

I was just looking at a HCW Covid FB page and there were a lot of nurses from Houston and San Antonio saying their hospitals were getting busy, I think Austin too, and some from Dallas.

[ktgrok]

24 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I used to think this but some scans show around half of people who are asymptomatic have some level of lung damage.  The long term consequences of that are unknown.  

Well, and those asymptomatic people may work or interact with people who are very vulnerable. We keep talking about nursing homes, but they are not an island. Workers go in and out. That idea that none of that 200 plus people have any interaction with potentially vulnerable people is unlikely. Same with the Orlando airport workers, or the bar patrons, etc. 

[Pen]

And there are plenty of vulnerable people not in nursing homes.  It just combines vulnerable plus close quarters living circumstances...

Plenty of vulnerable people live alone, or are a single parent, and have to go places that other people go to.  

I have no idea what Union County has for delivery services, but my area of rural Oregon just got it in the last couple of weeks.

 

My mother’s rural area still hasn’t got any . 

 

 

2 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

Well, and those asymptomatic people may work or interact with people who are very vulnerable. We keep talking about nursing homes, but they are not an island. Workers go in and out. That idea that none of that 200 plus people have any interaction with potentially vulnerable people is unlikely. Same with the Orlando airport workers, or the bar patrons, etc. 

 

[prairiewindmomma]

1 hour ago, Pen said:

 

The church was in a smaller town, though probably people go to and from La Grande and there was also a non distanced BLM ally type protest in the county   

https://www.lagrandeobserver.com/coronavirus/covid-19-explosion/article_feb41198-af5c-11ea-b466-9bb49be5644c.html

I think this more local paper has overlapping coverage, but maybe a little extra detail

I gather testing happened due to some people having symptoms 

Island City, fwiw, seems to have no buffer between it and LaGrande if you look on google maps.  WalMart is considered to be in Island City borders, but the Taco Bell next door is in La Grande. *shoulder shrug* 

Thanks for the additional article!

[TCB]

1 hour ago, Pen said:

 

The church was in a smaller town, though probably people go to and from La Grande and there was also a non distanced BLM ally type protest in the county   

https://www.lagrandeobserver.com/coronavirus/covid-19-explosion/article_feb41198-af5c-11ea-b466-9bb49be5644c.html

I think this more local paper has overlapping coverage, but maybe a little extra detail

I gather testing happened due to some people having symptoms 

It sounds like they were holding their services outside though. That seems worrying. I thought they had been inside until I read this article.