wuhan - coronavirus

[Pen]

7 minutes ago, BeachGal said:

 

For something like Covid, it's probably very safe if taken for even a few years. However, it can also cause problems, most likely when it's taken as a supplement for very long periods of time. Here's a blog entry by Derek Lowe about NAC that explains the pros and cons of what is known about it (for now):

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2019/10/04/n-acetyl-cysteine-a-warning-shot

For Covid prevention, though, my family and I are definitely taking it. And if we get Covid, we will be taking NAC for at least three months after because the infection appears to "keep something going" even once the virus clears. Maybe the immune system is damaged in some way and struggles to get back to normal? That might explain the multiple-relapse cycles that some people are experiencing.

It really looks like the virus is causing clots in multiple ways. That is not good and not easy to treat. It is looking like a therapeutic (bigger) dose is the way to go for people who are getting intubated. Heparin might not be the ideal choice either. Probably a more powerful drug. I forget the name of it. The weird, atypical clotting that they're seeing is worrisome.

 

Thanks. 

I do now recall reading in past about nac cancer issues. 

I use it particularly for its help for liver and processing toxins.   

 

CV19 seems to have malaria-like features. (Recurrence and clots aspects.)  I wonder if a virus can get active gene sequencing from a parasite.  Seems sci-fi realm, but ??? this is a very weird virus. 

 

[Pen]

@whitehawk  I’m not managing link for MATH protocols.  They were from a university med school I believe.

Try YouTube for “DrBeen” and he had a MATH++ video for home care. (Another for hospital care.)  

in fact I think he is now in last few days  going into individual elements of the MATH suggestions with a whole video for some individual parts (like melatonin was covered yesterday).   

 

 

[BeachGal]

31 minutes ago, whitehawk said:

 

ETA: Lung damage repair seems dependent on severity of the injury. People who had to be ventilated because of H1N1 typically were not back to normal in 6 months. But again, it doesn't seem that a lot of inquiry has been done into mild illness.

 

Besides everything else Pen linked, I I think the NAC especially would be worth taking. You might very well have had Covid and the big bugaboo are clots after the infection clears. NAC can help prevent them. Personally, I am taking NAC as a preventive and if I get the infection, I'll continue taking NAC probably for 6 months to a year later. The virus is doing something weird to immune cells and until we know more, I'd prefer to err on the side of caution.

There is also a type of autoimmune problem called antiphospholipid antibody syndrome which causes people to make clots.

6 minutes ago, Pen said:

Thanks. 

I do now recall reading in past about nac cancer issues. 

I use it particularly for its help for liver and processing toxins.   

 

CV19 seems to have malaria-like features. (Recurrence and clots aspects.)  I wonder if a virus can get active gene sequencing from a parasite.  Seems sci-fi realm, but ??? this is a very weird virus. 

 

You're probably fine taking it. At this point, I don't really think it's a big concern, definitely not for Covid. I really want you to try to ozone dialysis for your Lyme! I hate how much people charge for treatment. It really should be peanuts but some of the equipment is pricey (probably the dialysis machine). I think ozone (O2O3) is totally the way to go even though the US is calling it woo. It isn't. It's cheap and not patentable. That's the problem. LOL.

How viruses behave is so fascinating. It could very well have malaria-like features.

I think this is a good explanation pf the abnormal, atypical clotting that they're seeing.

 

[ktgrok]

17 hours ago, Arctic Mama said:

Okay when it’s WHO I’m very skeptical, but this looks like fantastic news and falls in line with a lot of the observational data we are seeing in places like the meat packing plants and family members who seem to not be catching it from the employees who are asymptomatic.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

Sort of, but not really....in that article:

She acknowledged that some studies have indicated asymptomatic or presymptomatic spread in nursing homes and in household settings. 

More research and data are needed to “truly answer” the question of whether the coronavirus can spread widely through asymptomatic carriers, Van Kerkhove added."

And from another article, walking back her earlier statement, she clarifies:

• Van Kerkhov said the WHO estimates 16% of people are asymptomatic and can transmit the virus. Some models suggest up to 40% of coronavirus transmission might be due to asymptomatic spread, she added, but much more information is needed.
• Van Kerkhove stressed that her comments on Monday were specific to particular studies and did not represent a new policy or direction.

15 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

They should basically be at herd immunity or very close then!  That’s a good thing though horrific that the number of deaths was so high.

Yeah...probably there or another 10-20% will need to get it, depending. But man, what a price to pay. 

I have so many questions about Covid, that would be fascinating, it it weren't quite so tragic.  I guess no one really knows the answers.  But here's my first:

Around here, the positive testing rate is something like 5 percent, and this doesn't seem to change too much around the country -- it isn't, to my knowledge, 50% anywhere.  But, assuming that we aren't blanket testing everyone, and that the majority of people getting tested believe they have symptoms, or have been exposed to someone who has tested positive:

Who are the 95% who test negative?  Are there so many people who have symptoms of something else that isn't covid?  Is it people who have no symptoms, but think they may have been exposed?

[73349]

.

Edited October 2, 2020 by Carolina Wren

3 minutes ago, whitehawk said:

People who are infected but whose test does not pick up enough virus to test positive, or who get one of the tests with a high false-negative rate;

people who had it and now need a clear test to go back to work, like my aunt (got another positive even though symptoms have abated and has to wait and try again until she gets a negative)--especially people in health care, law enforcement, etc;

people who have other infections with overlapping symptoms who are trying to nail down what they have;

people who have been exposed or are at high risk for exposure, who may need to get tested frequently to ensure they're still negative (such as hospital workers who know they've cared for Covid patients);

probably people with no known risk for whom infection could be disastrous, like astronauts.

 

I could understand these if it where something like 50-50 positive to negative, but the fact that there are about 20 negatives for every positive, makes me wonder.

[73349]

I don't know. Good question: Who is getting tested and why?
What is the overall false negative rate nationally? (By definition, we can't be sure, or we'd only use the better test that shows it, I guess.)
 

My state has gone from "You Can't Get Tested Without a Proven Link to a Confirmed Case" to "Go Ahead and Get a Test if You Might Have Been Exposed or Have Symptoms."

Edited October 2, 2020 by Carolina Wren

6 minutes ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

People like my son, who have recurrent symptoms that look like covid, and so get tested every time they interact with medical professionals. 

 

I'm genuinely sorry to hear this, and that must be a huge pain for you (and him), but surely this must be a tiny majority of all the testing?

[73349]

.

Edited October 2, 2020 by Carolina Wren

[EmseB]

The other thing is that even if symptomatic, colds and flu and other viruses are still out there. Look at percent positive tests during peak flu season when symptomatic people go in to be tested for flu... it's a really low positive rate, usually under 10%. You want that low % positive to know that you're catching most cases. It's different with Covid because we're probably testing exposures and people recovering more than we would with flu, but still a good sign of the percent positive isn't high.

[73349]

And then the flip side is, how many infected people are still not getting tested at all? That number should be going down if the severity of symptoms stays the same, or may be increasing if the virus is getting less bad.

Are some people getting tested just out of curiosity? I would think not, given that it's such an unpleasant test.

[Joker]

5 hours ago, whitehawk said:

Symptoms since June 5: intermittent elevated temperature (still not over 100F, ETA: currently 99.3 F or 37.39C, while my normal is ~97.5F), fatigue, cough with exertion (including talking while seated). I haven't had a high resting heart rate again, as far as I've noticed. Those few weeks without the cough were so nice. I have a telemed appointment with a PA Friday morning; the doctor apparently is only there on Tuesdays and Wednesdays and is booked for this week.

The doc has said she believes it's C19. Previous blood test ruled out inflammation, liver issues, I'm not sure what else (and the meds I tried before should have ruled out asthma, allergies, and bacterial infection). I think Lyme is flatly impossible given my symptoms (no joint pain, for example), and when and how it started (like a cold, at the same time that DS had all the same symptoms except the cough, and not after spending time outside). No flags for other conditions that I'm seeing (she asked about changes in appetite, for example).

I looked at clinicaltrials.gov last night and it does not appear that *anyone anywhere* is working on people who have already had mild symptoms for an extended time.

Before I relapsed, my hypothesis was that I just needed to re-grow respiratory cells, and that's why it took so long to stop coughing. I really did return gradually and gently to a more normal activity level, and DH was still making dinner, emptying the dishwasher, and taking care of the kitty litter. I only do my own laundry, not DH's or DS's. I made no effort to exercise beyond a three-block amble after dinner, and my doc had encouraged me to be active as tolerated.

I will probably go looking for the Slack channel. I've never used Slack before.

@Jokerhow are you?

I’m still back at having a mild cough (weirdly mostly when I laugh now) and the weird tickle in my chest still. Also, my sore throat is back this week. I had one week of feeling normal. Just under two weeks until I see a doctor in person.

[73349]

Every nursing home employee in the state of New York has been tested twice a week since May 10, but I haven't heard about anything similar in other states. https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/new-york-nursing-homes-ask-state-to-ease-virus-test-mandate/2454002/

Twice a week isn't going well since it takes days to get results back, sometimes longer than the interval until the next test. We need rapid, accurate tests.

Edited October 2, 2020 by Carolina Wren

[Bambam]

Our state is going around and offering free tests. Our county has four testing days this week. Two days you have to pre-register and qualify. The next two days - walk up - no symptoms required for testing, all you need is a phone number and valid ID. 

Which makes no sense to me - you are testing people with no symptoms? And your state admits there is a backlog of tests as they prioritize some (high risk)?  Are you trying to make your positive result percentages go down? 

 

[cintinative]

1 hour ago, whitehawk said:

Every nursing home employee in the state of New York has been tested twice a week since May 10, but I haven't heard about anything similar in other states. https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/new-york-nursing-homes-ask-state-to-ease-virus-test-mandate/2454002/

Twice a week isn't going well since it takes days to get results back, sometimes longer than the interval until the next test. We need rapid, accurate tests!

 

I believe that this was recommended by the executive branch (???) At least once per week, I think. Our state does not have the testing resources to do this.  I know the National Guard is working to help test in all the nursing homes in the state but the last I heard our state capacity was around 9500 tests/day total.

[Pen]

2 hours ago, GGardner said:

I have so many questions about Covid, that would be fascinating, it it weren't quite so tragic.  I guess no one really knows the answers.  But here's my first:

Around here, the positive testing rate is something like 5 percent, and this doesn't seem to change too much around the country -- it isn't, to my knowledge, 50% anywhere.  But, assuming that we aren't blanket testing everyone, and that the majority of people getting tested believe they have symptoms, or have been exposed to someone who has tested positive:

Who are the 95% who test negative?  Are there so many people who have symptoms of something else that isn't covid?  Is it people who have no symptoms, but think they may have been exposed?

 

Some other novel virus that has been set loose?

 

and/Or a lot of false negative tests?

 

it interested me that for the canine CV19 detection study, the samples where the hospitals thought they knew who had CV19 and who did not, included 2 samples that were supposed to be negative, but the dogs identified them as positive and it turned out the dogs were correct.  (Good thing they rechecked the patients, instead of simply concluding the dogs were wrong.)

But false negative tests seems to be a significant problem even for patients sick

enou to be in hospital with something. 

 

Some of the 95% are probably also patients who had CV19 in hospital and are getting their discharged as being free of virus tests, in some situations 2 tests are supposed to be negative for virus to be considered well.  So any one positive patient may easily generate a couple additional negative tests after care in hospital.  And possibly a false negative before getting a positive... 

 

 

[Arcadia]

@Farrar@Pen

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/george-floyd-protests-covid-19-military-12821600

“WASHINGTON: Members of the Washington DC national guard have tested positive for COVID-19 in the wake of their deployment during recent protests in the US capital, the guard said Tuesday (Jun 9).

DC National Guard spokeswoman Lieutenant Colonel Brooke Davis said they could not reveal the number of positive tests due to "operational security". 

She said they came after the 1,700 members were demobilised following service during the protests that erupted in front of the White House and elsewhere over the killing of African American George Floyd by a Minneapolis police officer.

The guard were mobilised by the mayor and then the federal government on Jun 1 to help keep order after protests turned into rioting and looting.

They were screened for COVID-19 before and after deployment, Davis said.

While many protesters wore masks during the unrest, not all did, and many law enforcement and guard personnel also went without.

"National Guard personnel are social distancing and use of PPE measures remained in place where practical throughout" the deployment, Davis said.”

[RootAnn]

2 hours ago, whitehawk said:

And then the flip side is, how many infected people are still not getting tested at all? That number should be going down if the severity of symptoms stays the same, or may be increasing if the virus is getting less bad.

Anecdotal but I heard of a recent positive case in my county. It is a child. Word on the street is "they" (parents?) think child got it from playing with neighborhood kids who are children of a person who works in close contact w/public (e.g., hair dresser, eye doctor). Parents of + child are now in self-quarantine but (from my info) are not going to be tested. No contact tracing on who might have infected child. If parents of + child aren't tested, then their co-workers will not know if they should self-quarantine or be tested. It seems very, very messed up. I don't know why child was tested (symptoms?). My state has recently started seeing cases of children with that weird MIS-C condition.

[matrips]

14 hours ago, whitehawk said:

So after doing better and better from mid-May to June 4--and having been able to resume normal activities like doing laundry, buying groceries in person, and washing my car--I've relapsed.

No idea what's going on. Throw me your ideas. I'm going to call my doctor again, but with some reluctance given how little was accomplished via my previous care.

Just throwing out something completely different.  Ignore if way off base 🙂. 

Your first sets of dates coincides with the lockdown.  Maybe something in the house. It was winter.  You felt better after lockdown was lifted and you got out more in the spring.  Now the weather is warmer- is the AC on and house closed up again?

[TracyP]

7 hours ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

Devastating, but not surprising

https://www.npr.org/2020/06/09/872401607/covid-19-infections-and-deaths-are-higher-among-those-with-intellectual-disabili

 

This is so sad. I understand why those living in group homes would be more likely to contract covid, but I don't understand why they'd be more likely to die. The article says it is because they are more likely to have underlying respiratory conditions. I am googling and cannot find a link between asthma and autism. I also didn't think asthma was a huge risk factor on its own. I wonder more if it is about general poor health (low vit d among other things?), poor care of this group of people. You would think prisons would face similar high death rates, but that doesn't seem to be the case. This so sad and so frustrating. 🙁 

[Melissa in Australia]

1 hour ago, TracyP said:

This is so sad. I understand why those living in group homes would be more likely to contract covid, but I don't understand why they'd be more likely to die. The article says it is because they are more likely to have underlying respiratory conditions. I am googling and cannot find a link between asthma and autism. I also didn't think asthma was a huge risk factor on its own. I wonder more if it is about general poor health (low vit d among other things?), poor care of this group of people. You would think prisons would face similar high death rates, but that doesn't seem to be the case. This so sad and so frustrating. 🙁 

maybe because they don't report symptoms to caregivers so it isn't picked up so early?

If they are sensory seekers they may put things in their mouths and end up with more viral load. (I know one of my twins is a sensory seeker. he runs his hands over everything and then licks his hand. it is a very quick motion that you will not notice if you were not looking for it.)

 Often people with Intellectual disabilities also have other disabilities as well.

 they may  also have poor hygiene which may contribute to spread and increased viral load

Edited June 10, 2020 by Melissa in Australia

[Joker]

13 hours ago, Joker said:

I’m still back at having a mild cough (weirdly mostly when I laugh now) and the weird tickle in my chest still. Also, my sore throat is back this week. I had one week of feeling normal. Just under two weeks until I see a doctor in person.

I wanted to add to this that the past few days youngest, 18, has had hives off and on all over her torso which is something new for her. Back in March oldest, 20, had a weird rash all over his stomach and arms for about two weeks. Youngest doesn’t have any other symptoms but it just adds to the weirdness all four of us have experienced since March.

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, TracyP said:

This is so sad. I understand why those living in group homes would be more likely to contract covid, but I don't understand why they'd be more likely to die. The article says it is because they are more likely to have underlying respiratory conditions. I am googling and cannot find a link between asthma and autism. I also didn't think asthma was a huge risk factor on its own. I wonder more if it is about general poor health (low vit d among other things?), poor care of this group of people. You would think prisons would face similar high death rates, but that doesn't seem to be the case. This so sad and so frustrating. 🙁 

If it’s grouped intellectual difficulties it could include Down syndrome etc.  I think that carriers quite a high risk of heart problems which could be worsened by Covid.  And many other things that cause intellectual disabilities carry a physical component as well.

[TracyP]

9 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

If it’s grouped intellectual difficulties it could include Down syndrome etc.  I think that carriers quite a high risk of heart problems which could be worsened by Covid.  And many other things that cause intellectual disabilities carry a physical component as well.

Yes, that would make sense if down syndrome was a significant risk factor. The article stated, however, that most of the cases they looked at had autism. Autism increasing risk just doesn't make sense to me - again I can see an increased risk as far as getting covid, but not as far as dying from it. 🤷‍♀️

[mumto2]

14 hours ago, whitehawk said:

And then the flip side is, how many infected people are still not getting tested at all? That number should be going down if the severity of symptoms stays the same, or may be increasing if the virus is getting less bad.

Are some people getting tested just out of curiosity? I would think not, given that it's such an unpleasant test.

I do know a couple who went and got tested at a drive thru free testing center out of curiosity about a month ago who went for the experience.  So some are willing for curiosity..........

[73349]

12 hours ago, matrips said:

Just throwing out something completely different.  Ignore if way off base 🙂. 

Your first sets of dates coincides with the lockdown.  Maybe something in the house. It was winter.  You felt better after lockdown was lifted and you got out more in the spring.  Now the weather is warmer- is the AC on and house closed up again?

I got sick after a week in which I was out and about a lot.

I don't feel better outside. When I was first doing walks in May, I had to walk slowly and often only made it a block. I worked up to three or four blocks and keeping pace with DS and DH, who were not in any hurry. Yet I had to turn back on an evening walk the other night before even getting out of our yard because I couldn't breathe.

My going out more didn't coincide with lockdown lifting here--my church was (is) still closed, park bathrooms were still closed so we wouldn't go to a park, we didn't go to other people's houses, etc.--and I was generally out only about an hour a day when feeling well. April and early May had pretty good weather (I'm in the South, so not cold), I think, and I spent most of it in bed. So I don't really see a connection.

Thanks, though.

I did go back to trying to use my sleep apnea appliance, and it could be a fomite although I cleaned it with toothpaste and water, but it can't be boiled or anything. And if it's Covid or anything else infectious, I should have made antibodies, or how on Earth did I get better??

[Pen]

17 minutes ago, whitehawk said:

I got sick after a week in which I was out and about a lot.

I don't feel better outside. When I was first doing walks in May, I had to walk slowly and often only made it a block. I worked up to three or four blocks and keeping pace with DS and DH, who were not in any hurry. Yet I had to turn back on an evening walk the other night before even getting out of our yard because I couldn't breathe.

My going out more didn't coincide with lockdown lifting here--my church was (is) still closed, park bathrooms were still closed so we wouldn't go to a park, we didn't go to other people's houses, etc.--and I was generally out only about an hour a day when feeling well. April and early May had pretty good weather (I'm in the South, so not cold), I think, and I spent most of it in bed. So I don't really see a connection.

Thanks, though.

I did go back to trying to use my sleep apnea appliance, and it could be a fomite although I cleaned it with toothpaste and water, but it can't be boiled or anything. And if it's Covid or anything else infectious, I should have made antibodies, or how on Earth did I get better??

 

Did relapse correspond with resuming sleep apnea device? 

 

If you are having sleep apnea then a breathing program may be especially helpful for you!

 

antibodies are not the only way immune system can work    

 

[BeachGal]

25 minutes ago, whitehawk said:

I got sick after a week in which I was out and about a lot.

I don't feel better outside. When I was first doing walks in May, I had to walk slowly and often only made it a block. I worked up to three or four blocks and keeping pace with DS and DH, who were not in any hurry. Yet I had to turn back on an evening walk the other night before even getting out of our yard because I couldn't breathe.

My going out more didn't coincide with lockdown lifting here--my church was (is) still closed, park bathrooms were still closed so we wouldn't go to a park, we didn't go to other people's houses, etc.--and I was generally out only about an hour a day when feeling well. April and early May had pretty good weather (I'm in the South, so not cold), I think, and I spent most of it in bed. So I don't really see a connection.

Thanks, though.

I did go back to trying to use my sleep apnea appliance, and it could be a fomite although I cleaned it with toothpaste and water, but it can't be boiled or anything. And if it's Covid or anything else infectious, I should have made antibodies, or how on Earth did I get better??

 

Your innate immune response might have done a good enough job on the virus. The initial infection might have caused a lot of damage inside your arteries and veins, etc. It can take 3-6 months for those cells to be replaced. So, the virus might be undetectable now but the damage it caused could be causing the lingering symptoms.

Your body will likely have a memory of the virus even if it didn’t make antibodies. Antibodies are probably not going to give a true picture of who is immune. That is my limited understanding.

[Jean in Newcastle]

52 minutes ago, whitehawk said:

I got sick after a week in which I was out and about a lot.

I don't feel better outside. When I was first doing walks in May, I had to walk slowly and often only made it a block. I worked up to three or four blocks and keeping pace with DS and DH, who were not in any hurry. Yet I had to turn back on an evening walk the other night before even getting out of our yard because I couldn't breathe.

My going out more didn't coincide with lockdown lifting here--my church was (is) still closed, park bathrooms were still closed so we wouldn't go to a park, we didn't go to other people's houses, etc.--and I was generally out only about an hour a day when feeling well. April and early May had pretty good weather (I'm in the South, so not cold), I think, and I spent most of it in bed. So I don't really see a connection.

Thanks, though.

I did go back to trying to use my sleep apnea appliance, and it could be a fomite although I cleaned it with toothpaste and water, but it can't be boiled or anything. And if it's Covid or anything else infectious, I should have made antibodies, or how on Earth did I get better??

I soak my CPap in a mix of hot (not hot enough to melt it) water with some baby shampoo and vinegar mixed in.  The vinegar especially is for killing germs.  When I was sick for that six weeks I cleaned my CPap religiously because they can force germs/viruses farther down your airways. 

[Pen]

Magnesium -also D3 + Magnesium + B12:

https://youtu.be/M4PXaCu-9KE

https://youtu.be/M4PXaCu-9KE

[prairiewindmomma]

21 hours ago, whitehawk said:

I had a chest x-ray back in March. It was clear.

I've recorded my temperatures. No pattern evident except it's not over 37.7 C. I'm in an air-conditioned house; the ambient temperature has very little variation.

The pattern with coughing is that if I sit still and stay quiet, I don't cough; if I'm talking or moving at length, I cough (same indoors and outdoors, morning and evening, hungry and full, etc.). A bit of cardiomyopathy had crossed my mind before I started getting better, but that shouldn't disappear for 3 weeks and reappear. I don't have a peak flow meter, but a pulse ox has never shown me less than 98, usually 99, no matter how bad it's gotten.

Is your cough productive when you cough?

My pneumonia recoveries kind of sound like yours...when I have that regression a month later I am either heading into a secondary bacterial infection (which almost always has a fever) or I am simply trying to do too much.

Did they suggest any of the respiratory physical therapy stuff for you to do at home if your cough is productive? Take a deep breath in, hold for a few seconds, release? It will likely produce mucus if you have some, so keep Kleenex handy. Likewise, I have Dh do percussive therapy on my back. I also do the sharp blow out a candle breaths. I have been asked to hum and sing as well in recovery to try to get stuff up and out of my lungs.

I handle my asthma (I am cough variant) differently.

It usually takes me 3 months to get over a serious illness. I was sick at Christmas and it was well into March before I was normal. Even now exercise can cause coughing fits for me. I am not “normal”, but people like me are common enough. So, don’t freak out that you will never recover.  

[73349]

46 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

Is your cough productive when you cough?

Not at all. It's a dry cough.

I only tried the apnea appliance again once I was sure I'd stopped coughing, because it holds my teeth closed, and that's uncomfortable to cough in. My sleep apnea is mild and I don't have other breathing issues. I got mild pneumonia in December 2010 when DS brought something nasty home from preschool and we all got sick--different diagnoses, different antibiotics--but otherwise have not had any trouble.  I discontinued the appliance once again when I relapsed.

I won't use the appliance again without consulting the manufacturer about disinfection, whether with vinegar or something else. It has to be something safe to leave in my mouth all night as well as for the material they use.

My aunt and uncle are doing better.

[Terabith]

18 hours ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

Not out of curiosity, but I do think there are more people getting tested before situations where having it would be bad.  We have family who wants to visit, we still haven't decided, but one thought is that they'd quarantine and then get tested, but I have trouble with the idea of putting their kids through that.  DS swears it's "fine" but he says the same thing about lots of things my other kids would be horrified by.  

I had a test when I randomly started running a fever, despite aggressive social distancing.  I mean, I've not been as careful as some people on the board, but we're pretty darn careful.  The test was negative, and later we decided it was a combination of stress and allergies.  (Not an unheard of thing for me to run a fever when stress load gets high, but because of situation, did a test.)  The test really, truly wasn't bad.  It's basically a flu test.  A little uncomfortable for a second to have a swab up the nose but I didn't think it was a big deal.  

[Terabith]

7 hours ago, TracyP said:

This is so sad. I understand why those living in group homes would be more likely to contract covid, but I don't understand why they'd be more likely to die. The article says it is because they are more likely to have underlying respiratory conditions. I am googling and cannot find a link between asthma and autism. I also didn't think asthma was a huge risk factor on its own. I wonder more if it is about general poor health (low vit d among other things?), poor care of this group of people. You would think prisons would face similar high death rates, but that doesn't seem to be the case. This so sad and so frustrating. 🙁 

There's also a link between autism and likelihood of cytokine storm.  

16 hours ago, Pen said:

Some of the 95% are probably also patients who had CV19 in hospital and are getting their discharged as being free of virus tests, in some situations 2 tests are supposed to be negative for virus to be considered well.  So any one positive patient may easily generate a couple additional negative tests after care in hospital.  

 

Yikes!  I'm not a statistics expert, but I hope these "tests to see if you are no longer positive" don't count for the percentages.  Otherwise, the numbers would be completely misleading.  Let's assume that everyone has covid, and there are no false positives or negatives.  If everyone gets it and tests positive and everyone needs two negative tests to be cleared, and not everyone gets it at once, that means that the positive rate would average only 33%, even if everyone got it.

Does anyone know if these tests count?  I don't think hospitals do this kind of testing for, say, influenza.  Once you test positive for the flu, I think it is pretty obvious when you've recovered. 

[vonfirmath]

17 minutes ago, GGardner said:

 

Yikes!  I'm not a statistics expert, but I hope these "tests to see if you are no longer positive" don't count for the percentages.  Otherwise, the numbers would be completely misleading.  Let's assume that everyone has covid, and there are no false positives or negatives.  If everyone gets it and tests positive and everyone needs two negative tests to be cleared, and not everyone gets it at once, that means that the positive rate would average only 33%, even if everyone got it.

Does anyone know if these tests count?  I don't think hospitals do this kind of testing for, say, influenza.  Once you test positive for the flu, I think it is pretty obvious when you've recovered. 

Texas has an explicit message on their website that they cannot guarantee they are NOT counting for private labs. It sounds like for public labs they are trying to avoid double-counting the same individual. But they do not get enough information from the private labs to be sure of it.

 

"Total test numbers are unable to be de-duplicated for private labs."

Edited June 10, 2020 by vonfirmath

[mathnerd]

19 hours ago, Pen said:

Some other novel virus that has been set loose?

and/Or a lot of false negative tests

When people say that the testing numbers are very low and that my area (SF Bay Area) had a lot lower number of deaths than anticipated I have similar theories as well. It could be that areas with high numbers of immigrants from Asia had other novel viruses introduced into their populations in the recent past and perhaps they were a lot similar to CV19, hence the immune systems were geared up to respond better? And I was told by my Korean friend that the swabbing for CV19 has to be done with precision in order for it to be accurate - in other words, you could have CV19, the tester might not be swabbing your nostrils as deep as needed and hence it might turn a negative even though you are infected - apparently they teach Korean testers how to avoid this situation explicitly.

[Pen]

2 hours ago, Terabith said:

I had a test when I randomly started running a fever, despite aggressive social distancing.  I mean, I've not been as careful as some people on the board, but we're pretty darn careful.  The test was negative, and later we decided it was a combination of stress and allergies.  (Not an unheard of thing for me to run a fever when stress load gets high, but because of situation, did a test.)  The test really, truly wasn't bad.  It's basically a flu test.  A little uncomfortable for a second to have a swab up the nose but I didn't think it was a big deal.  

 

The people I know who had original swab test PCR before new versions came out said it was really bad.   

I wonder if different testers have done much more thorough swabbing than others. 

That could make a false negative tests problem also. 

I know some improper methods were also supposed to have thrown off a lot of Abbot tests. 

[TracyP]

1 hour ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

I think that it's important to note that they seem to be using "receives services from the state Department of Developmental Disabilities" as a proxy for individuals with IDD.  In my experience, most states use a definition of IDD for eligibility that includes a subset of individuals with ASD, usually those with the highest support needs.  Other individuals with ASD may not receive services as adults, or if they have mental health co-morbidities may receive services through a Department of Mental Health.

But if you look at the population of individuals with ID and ASD with high support needs, you're going to see more individuals in the following categories

Individuals with genetic syndromes that place them at risk e.g. individuals with Down syndrome or Williams syndrome with heart conditions, individuals with Rett syndrome and breath holding, individuals with Angelman syndrome and seizure disorder (I could go on) (Keep in mind that ASD is much more common in some genetic syndromes like Down syndrome and Angelman, so even if we only look at ASD, which I don't think this study did, we'd have more of these individuals).

Individuals with a history of prematurity that puts them at risk for lung issues such as BPD

Individuals with co-occuring motor disabilities such as CP which can make it harder for someone to cough and clear their airways 

Individuals with seizure disorders

Individuals with obesity, either because of medical condition such as low muscle tone, or because of poor impulse control, or because of poor nutritional practices in group homes.  

Individuals with poor cardiovascular health, due to lack of opportunities for exercise, or lack of interest in exercise, or low muscle tone that makes exercise.  

Individuals whose IDD is secondary to a medical condition, such as cancer treatment, or stroke,  or autoimmune encephalopathy that puts them at risk. 

There is also thinking that ASD in particular may sometimes have an autoimmune component, which may make them more vulnerable to cytokine storm.

In addition, congregate living puts people at risk of catching things, not just covid.   So that individual who gets covid because a staff member brought it in, may have lungs that are still recovering from a bout of pneumonia secondary to flu that they had in February.  Twitchy lungs can make subsequent infections worse.  

 

Thanks. These are helpful points. Still very disturbing, but it makes better sense in my head.

[Pen]

Vitamin D etc status also may be low in various residential facilities 

[Pen]

Tomorrow DrBeen video may go into a case of a friend of his whose (young adult iirc) son died from CV19. 

[Ausmumof3]

8 hours ago, TracyP said:

Yes, that would make sense if down syndrome was a significant risk factor. The article stated, however, that most of the cases they looked at had autism. Autism increasing risk just doesn't make sense to me - again I can see an increased risk as far as getting covid, but not as far as dying from it. 🤷‍♀️

I don’t know what it’s like there but here often autism is a catch all diagnosis.  I know of at least two kids who have an autism diagnosis that actually have a rare genetic disorder but it’s easier to access funding with an autism label.  I also have a family member who is diagnosed autism but is being tested for another genetic issue that causes some traits like autism as well as causing physical issues including potentially heart problems.  The specific disorder is so rare that most likely wouldn’t have been identified if there wasn’t a medical person in the family who was in a related field that spotted it.  So I guess a lot of people who fall under an autism label have more than autism.  

[Pen]

24 minutes ago, Plum said:

Yikes!

Arizona hospitals at 83% capacity, elective surgery may stop

follow-up - longer article

https://www.verdenews.com/news/2020/jun/09/covid-19-arizona-state-officials-press-hospitals-a/

 

 

 

Yikes.

I hope the Nitric Oxide approach will help.

 

(What is Arizona’s view on MATH protocol and HCQ?) 

[EmseB]

29 minutes ago, Plum said:

Yikes!

Arizona hospitals at 83% capacity, elective surgery may stop

follow-up - longer article

https://www.verdenews.com/news/2020/jun/09/covid-19-arizona-state-officials-press-hospitals-a/

 

 

I skimmed the articles so please forgive me, but does anyone know what % capacity ICUs normally operate at when there's no pandemic on? I admit that 83% seems low to me after having a loved one in an ICU and seeing almost all beds full (this was several years ago).

I'm trying to put some of the numbers in seeing in context and am reading conflicting info about short staffing, beds available, equipment like ECMO and vents,  how NYC utilized surge capacity and field hospitals, etc.

[Pen]

12 minutes ago, EmseB said:

I skimmed the articles so please forgive me, but does anyone know what % capacity ICUs normally operate at when there's no pandemic on? I admit that 83% seems low to me after having a loved one in an ICU and seeing almost all beds full (this was several years ago).

I'm trying to put some of the numbers in seeing in context and am reading conflicting info about short staffing, beds available, equipment like ECMO and vents,  how NYC utilized surge capacity and field hospitals, etc.

 

It may depend on exact circumstances.  

I think in some places I have been with ~20 adult ICU beds,  like at least 30% available...

So for example hospital with 20 adult ICU beds would have 6 open spots, in case of for example of a quite likely situation, a bad automobile crash on part of an interstate that would send patients to them having  6 people needing ICU all at once and quite quickly . 

I don’t know how that would be in bigger cities with many hospitals 

 

[Pen]

55 minutes ago, Plum said:

I could ask dh when he gets home.

After reading up one this

Their largest hospital chain, Banner, is saying they are running out of beds, vents and ECMO treatments, that's really bad. Their dashboard is showing record numbers. Banner said the number of patients needing vents and invasive treatments has quadrupled and other hospitals are saying they are seeing increases as well.They are saying cases have spiked 110%. I believe AZ has a high population of retirees. The state has enough vents it's just Banner that's reached capacity for treatment. 

It looks like they implemented a new method of tracking ICU beds today after the health department was miscounting beds previously. They were not supposed to be counting surge beds as available because they are not ready. I guess they don't have the covid wards any longer and that's part of the trigger. They would have to stop elective surgeries to make room for another surge. As we all know, hospitals can get overwhelmed quickly. 

 

 

This updated method, now posted in the Hospital Bed Usage and Availability section of our dashboard, shows the current bed availability without calculating in the additional (surge) beds hospitals added under Executive Order 2020-10. Initially, these surge beds were calculated into the total number and counted as full ⁠—  these surge beds should not be included in the bed availability, because they are not currently in use. 

Here’s how the updated method for calculating bed availability works:

Scenario: The hospitals report a total capacity of 1567 ICU beds with 369 beds available, and 641 surge beds that could be added on demand:

• Previous Dashboard Calculation Method:  

Add the total 1567 beds  + 641 surge beds =  2208 total ICU beds.

Display 17% available ICU beds (369 available beds/2208 (total + surge) beds) 

• New Calculation Method:

Divide the available 369 beds by the total 1567 beds = 23.5%.

Display 23.5% available ICU beds (369 available beds/1567 total ICU beds). 

This change has been reflected on the dashboard today. Later this week, we will be adding additional graphs showing the current capacity plus the number of beds added through the executive order, which will show the full capacity of our healthcare system if a surge plan is activated. 

https://directorsblog.health.azdhs.gov/new-method-for-determining-inpatient-and-icu-bed-availability-launched-today/

 

I got lost somewhere between logic and math. Please help. 

 

something seems whacky

 

They were formerly counting non existent theoretical surge beds as if they were already in existence and already full? 

 

 

[Ausmumof3]

The Age:  A person who attended the Black Lives Matter protest in Melbourne has been diagnosed with COVID-19, prompting concerns others may have been infected at the rally.

Not good.

[Pen]

Rhonda Patrick has another Q&A today

 

[Pen]

Both Medcram and Dr John Campbell have youtube videos on Vitamin D today—not necessarily anything new for those of us who have been advocating Vitamin D for months, but good if you were looking for more or are new to this thread. 

 

DrBeen has one on magnesium that I found excellent.