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Three children have died in New York state as a result of a possible coronavirus complication, while Italy has released more than 4000 people from its hospitals.

USA

Three children have now died in New York state from a possible complication from the coronavirus involving swollen blood vessels and heart problems, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said today.

At least 73 children in New York have been diagnosed with symptoms similar to Kawasaki disease – a rare inflammatory condition in children – and toxic shock syndrome. There is no proof that the virus causes the mysterious syndrome.

😞 

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15 hours ago, calbear said:

Tijuana is emerging as a major hotspot in Mexico which is just across the border from where I am. That is a big concern because normally there's over 100K crossings daily here. Our county numbers look ok, but if you look at the neighborhoods closest to the border, the total cases per 100K increase from around go from around 150 to over 2000. 

https://news.yahoo.com/hidden-toll-mexico-ignores-wave-192622443.html

 

There are always huge numbers of people crossing the border in both directions so that's not new. From news stories I have seen in the past couple of years, I would be more concerned about the occasional discharges of raw sewage from TJ into the ocean, which probably has nothing to do with Covid-19.

100K is a lot of people, but many of them are U.S. Citizens going to work or school in the USA or Mexican nationals with visas that permit them to cross daily.

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3 hours ago, Lanny said:

 

There are always huge numbers of people crossing the border in both directions so that's not new. From news stories I have seen in the past couple of years, I would be more concerned about the occasional discharges of raw sewage from TJ into the ocean, which probably has nothing to do with Covid-19.

100K is a lot of people, but many of them are U.S. Citizens going to work or school in the USA or Mexican nationals with visas that permit them to cross daily.

I also would expect to see more cases in Juarez for the same reason. Especially since El Paso is increasing. There is a lot of (completely legal) traffic across the border. 

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Over half Coronavirus deaths in just 5 states:

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/over-half-all-us-coronavirus-deaths-have-occurred-just-5-state

All above the 37th parallel, where it is difficult to make sufficient vitamin D, high density states. DE and MD also high density above 37. CovidStates.thumb.jpg.1f0ad3ecc5da79e1907edd5001ffe5b5.jpghttps://www.linkedin.com/pulse/vitamin-d-covid-correlations-keep-coming-liz-brown/

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Cross-posting this here: it's a really good, sober, analytical look at what is more and less risky behavior as we start opening up again.  It's by someone who specializes in epidemiology/infectious diseases and analyzes data of where spread has happened and how/why, with helpful images.

Good news: Outside activity seems to be comparatively low risk. 

Highest risk is, sadly, indoor gatherings - church services, parties, office workers with a large number of people in the same air space. restaurants, conferences.  Well, really, anything with a large number of people interacting in the same enclosed air space over, say, an hour or more.  Contact surface contagion is still something to worry about (wash your hands!), but seems like air transmission is the most significant vector, by far.  So do wear masks.

Shopping (relatively short time, low personal interaction, large store and air volume) is in the middle, risk wise.

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them?fbclid=IwAR3oZCk15uKrdXuBssdDE8xEqrV-Z9Pw92uzLo3bnMCsFGE9M9gsbugk66w

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There is a website tracking prison numbers:

https://www.themarshallproject.org/2020/05/01/a-state-by-state-look-at-coronavirus-in-prisons

In the prisons, everyone is packed densely and the latitude correlation is even stronger, numbers in graph below are from the Marshall project, I arranged in latitude order.  DE is first state above the 37th parallel, the parallel above which it is difficult to make vitamin D.

CovidPrison.thumb.jpg.e0cba3300427b813e6e5191f9719cec7.jpg

Edited by ElizabethB
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41 minutes ago, Matryoshka said:

Cross-posting this here: it's a really good, sober, analytical look at what is more and less risky behavior as we start opening up again.  It's by someone who specializes in epidemiology/infectious diseases and analyzes data of where spread has happened and how/why, with helpful images.

Good news: Outside activity seems to be comparatively low risk. 

Highest risk is, sadly, indoor gatherings - church services, parties, office workers with a large number of people in the same air space. restaurants, conferences.  Well, really, anything with a large number of people interacting in the same enclosed air space over, say, an hour or more.  Contact surface contagion is still something to worry about (wash your hands!), but seems like air transmission is the most significant vector, by far.  So do wear masks.

Shopping (relatively short time, low personal interaction, large store and air volume) is in the middle, risk wise.

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them?fbclid=IwAR3oZCk15uKrdXuBssdDE8xEqrV-Z9Pw92uzLo3bnMCsFGE9M9gsbugk66w

I have to quote this because it is so good. This info has been out there, but I have not seen it all put together in such an understandable way. Thank you for sharing!!

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2 hours ago, ElizabethB said:

Over half Coronavirus deaths in just 5 states:

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/over-half-all-us-coronavirus-deaths-have-occurred-just-5-state

All above the 37th parallel, where it is difficult to make sufficient vitamin D, high density states. DE and MD also high density above 37. CovidStates.thumb.jpg.1f0ad3ecc5da79e1907edd5001ffe5b5.jpghttps://www.linkedin.com/pulse/vitamin-d-covid-correlations-keep-coming-liz-brown/

That seems to correlate more with population density and public health measures than latitude, don't you think?

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2 hours ago, sassenach said:

That seems to correlate more with population density and public health measures than latitude, don't you think?

Yes, density is more highly correlated, but all the really bad states were both dense and above 37 degrees.  The latitude was more highly correlated when you just look at prisons.  There is only data for the states I graphed below.  Also, Marti Gras was likely a very bad plan.CovidPrison.thumb.jpg.11449ed9db1d06a28ac83cd0ea219f41.jpg

 

Edited by ElizabethB
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@Pen @TCB oximeter usage being encouraged in Singapore 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/covid-19-migrant-worker-pulse-oximeter-josephine-teo-12718878

“Pulse oximeters are used to monitor oxygen levels of those infected with COVID-19 and can help to detect early signs of deterioration in health. 

The provision of pulse oximeters will also allow workers to proactively monitor their own health status and reach out for medical assistance if needed, said the Ministry of Manpower (MOM) in a separate press release. 

Migrant workers residing in dormitories are already given thermometers. Explaining why pulse oximeters are also being issued, Mrs Teo pointed to one “important observation” in that many migrant workers experience “very mild symptoms or even no symptoms at all” even after being infected with COVID-19.

“In other words, they themselves may not be aware that something has happened and because they don't feel unwell, they do not seek medical attention.

“As a result, even if they have already been infected, or they are still infectious and passing the virus to somebody else, they don't know it,” the minister said.

In total, about 20,000 pulse oximeters will be made available to migrant workers living in purpose-built dormitories, factory-converted dormitories and temporary quarters within construction sites, she added.”

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41 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

@Pen @TCB oximeter usage being encouraged in Singapore 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/covid-19-migrant-worker-pulse-oximeter-josephine-teo-12718878

“Pulse oximeters are used to monitor oxygen levels of those infected with COVID-19 and can help to detect early signs of deterioration in health. 

The provision of pulse oximeters will also allow workers to proactively monitor their own health status and reach out for medical assistance if needed, said the Ministry of Manpower (MOM) in a separate press release. 

Migrant workers residing in dormitories are already given thermometers. Explaining why pulse oximeters are also being issued, Mrs Teo pointed to one “important observation” in that many migrant workers experience “very mild symptoms or even no symptoms at all” even after being infected with COVID-19.

“In other words, they themselves may not be aware that something has happened and because they don't feel unwell, they do not seek medical attention.

“As a result, even if they have already been infected, or they are still infectious and passing the virus to somebody else, they don't know it,” the minister said.

In total, about 20,000 pulse oximeters will be made available to migrant workers living in purpose-built dormitories, factory-converted dormitories and temporary quarters within construction sites, she added.”

We have been sending them home with patients who are stable enough to be discharged but that we worry may deteriorate. 

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On 5/8/2020 at 12:49 AM, Jean in Newcastle said:

Apparently future cruises are being booked up. 
 

https://apple.news/Ae3HXtJv7RPa62t3sOgBxRQ

 

My cousin who has always been discounting COVID as something to be cautious of has already booked a cruise with his wife for next January. They use their parents as childcare and took them along on the last cruise to watch the kids. We're hoping the age 60+ parents refuse this time.

 

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8 minutes ago, Terabith said:

Have we talked about Cuomo's statement that a lot of the recent NY infections are in people who have been pretty strictly self isolating?  How are they getting sick??? 

I haven’t seen this in detail but presumed it was through shopping delivered etc.  But are they in apartments?  Maybe it’s travelling through plumbing or aircon or something.  Might need to giant disinfectant trucks after all.

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43 minutes ago, Terabith said:

Have we talked about Cuomo's statement that a lot of the recent NY infections are in people who have been pretty strictly self isolating?  How are they getting sick??? 

If it's the statement I'm thinking of it's people who get infected from someone else in the household who has to go out.

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2 hours ago, Terabith said:

Have we talked about Cuomo's statement that a lot of the recent NY infections are in people who have been pretty strictly self isolating?  How are they getting sick??? 

Just anecdoctal. There are quite a number of people locally I know who would probably respond that they have been sheltering in place, but they really aren't truly and strictly sheltering in place. They think that their trip to do X or to go to Y doesn't really count. People aren't always truly accurate in their recall. 

Edited by calbear
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14 hours ago, sassenach said:

That seems to correlate more with population density and public health measures than latitude, don't you think?

How do you measure the latitude for a state?  Especially a state like Texas that spans a lot of latitudes?  Also, population density differs greatly within a state.  Texas has some counties (Harris, Dallas, Tarrant) with over 2000 people per square mile.  There are other counties in Texas with less than 1 person per square mile.  People in Texas definitely are not all living at one latitude but equally spread out across the state.

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1 hour ago, Bootsie said:

How do you measure the latitude for a state?  Especially a state like Texas that spans a lot of latitudes?  Also, population density differs greatly within a state.  Texas has some counties (Harris, Dallas, Tarrant) with over 2000 people per square mile.  There are other counties in Texas with less than 1 person per square mile.  People in Texas definitely are not all living at one latitude but equally spread out across the state.

 

I'm not sure I'd say it is equally spread out. West Texas is pretty bare. Lots of people around Houston and Dallas, but in between there are fewer (but not so bare as West Texas)

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4 hours ago, vonfirmath said:

 

I'm not sure I'd say it is equally spread out. West Texas is pretty bare. Lots of people around Houston and Dallas, but in between there are fewer (but not so bare as West Texas)

I think that's her point - that they aren't actually spread out, just as they aren't all at one latitude. 

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23 hours ago, ElizabethB said:

Over half Coronavirus deaths in just 5 states:

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/over-half-all-us-coronavirus-deaths-have-occurred-just-5-state

All above the 37th parallel, where it is difficult to make sufficient vitamin D, high density states. DE and MD also high density above 37. CovidStates.thumb.jpg.1f0ad3ecc5da79e1907edd5001ffe5b5.jpghttps://www.linkedin.com/pulse/vitamin-d-covid-correlations-keep-coming-liz-brown/

 

The higher latitude states with lower CV19 death rates have lower population density and are higher white population states.  (Or in any case, not high populations that tend by skin color to have a very hard time making Vitamin D.) 

 

The one lower latitude, lower population density state to have high CV19 death rate (Louisiana)  had the Mardi Gras celebration and has one of the highest black (hence likely high D deficient) populations in the country. 

 

It looks like probably all of those things are factors. 

Edited by Pen
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6 hours ago, Bootsie said:

How do you measure the latitude for a state?  Especially a state like Texas that spans a lot of latitudes?  Also, population density differs greatly within a state.  Texas has some counties (Harris, Dallas, Tarrant) with over 2000 people per square mile.  There are other counties in Texas with less than 1 person per square mile.  People in Texas definitely are not all living at one latitude but equally spread out across the state.

I just took an average around the middle of each state  and sorted by latitude, they are not perfect but are a general order of latitude. Most states are a lot smaller than Texas so their average latitude is closer to what most people in the state will experience.  But, except for a tiny sliver, all of Texas is below the 37th parallel where you can make Vitamin D easily.

Interestingly, N France has Vitamin D levels of 43 nmol/L, S France 80 nmol/L, most of France's deaths were in the North. 

Edited by ElizabethB
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23 minutes ago, ElizabethB said:

I just took an average around the middle of each state  and sorted by latitude, they are not perfect but are a general order of latitude. Most states are a lot smaller than Texas so their average latitude is closer to what most people in the state will experience.  But, except for a tiny sliver, all of Texas is below the 37th parallel where you can make Vitamin D easily.

Interestingly, N France has Vitamin D levels of 43 nmol/L, S France 80 nmol/L, most of France's deaths were in the North. 

 

Idk.

 I do think that Vitamin D is relevant—but latitude doesn’t always equate.  For example Los Angeles County has more cases and deaths than farther North, and I think that is true even if adjusting for how huge a county Los Angeles County is. 

If looking at Vitamin D it may make more sense to wait on more actual D level statistics to be collected instead of trying to extrapolate by latitude or race. 

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This article on the airline industry makes me want to bang my head against the wall.  

Quote

Since early March, the industry has steadily escalated efforts to convince passengers that planes are not flying petri dishes. Last week, United and Delta started requiring masks for passengers. On Monday, American and Southwest will do the same.

 

On Thursday, Frontier Airlines became the first U.S. company to announce that it would turn away passengers or crew members with a temperature of 100.4 degrees Fahrenheit or higher starting June 1. 

 

So, the cutting edge of safety precautions is banning passengers and crew who are actually feverish? Starting three weeks from now?

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1 hour ago, JennyD said:

This article on the airline industry makes me want to bang my head against the wall.  

 

So, the cutting edge of safety precautions is banning passengers and crew who are actually feverish? Starting three weeks from now?

 

Does not inspire confidence.

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I got an antibody test today. (My GP apparently decided to interpret LabCorp's "This test is *not* for people with current symptoms" such that my symptoms, being caused by perhaps some tissue damage or other residual effects, are not a current infection.)  From their website:

Quote

Should I Get Tested?

This test may be right for you if you:

  • Are not experiencing symptoms consistent with COVID-19; information about COVID-19 symptoms can be found on the CDC website.
  • Have not experienced a fever in the past 3 days.
  • Have had or suspect you have had COVID-19, but have not experienced any new symptoms in the past 10 days (these symptoms include loss of smell or taste, difficulty breathing, feeling weak or lethargic, lightheadedness or dizziness, vomiting or diarrhea, slurred speech, and/or seizures).

This test is only available for persons 18 years of age or older.

Antibody tests may not be able to show if you have been exposed to COVID-19 because it can take at least two weeks after exposure to develop antibodies.

This test may NOT be right for you if you:

  • Are feeling sick or have had a fever within the last 3 days.
  • Want to understand if you currently have COVID-19. 
  • Have been diagnosed with COVID-19 less than 10 days ago.
  • Were directly exposed to the virus in the past 14 days.
  • Have a condition that weakens your immune system.

I'm hoping the results will be available by my telemed appointment in 2 days.

Edited by whitehawk
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2 hours ago, JennyD said:

This article on the airline industry makes me want to bang my head against the wall.  

 

So, the cutting edge of safety precautions is banning passengers and crew who are actually feverish? Starting three weeks from now?

I actually read an article where they will retake your temperature in 30 minutes to see if it is acceptable.  So slip some Tylenol and get on the plane 😡

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Looks like totals for US are down to just over 20,000 cases yesterday - the lowest since March from looking at the worldometer graph.  And daily deaths at 750.  Not sure if it represents a true drop but the trend looks more like a downward curve than a plateau now. (Although there’s still a lot of bouncing around).

Edited by Ausmumof3
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9 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Looks like totals for US are down to just over 20,000 cases yesterday - the lowest since March from looking at the worldometer graph.  And daily deaths at 750.  Not sure if it represents a true drop but the trend looks more like a downward curve than a plateau now. (Although there’s still a lot of bouncing around).

I’m afraid that this might change over the next two weeks. Hope that I am wrong. 

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4 hours ago, JennyD said:

This article on the airline industry makes me want to bang my head against the wall.  

 

So, the cutting edge of safety precautions is banning passengers and crew who are actually feverish? Starting three weeks from now?

I keep wondering why the obsessive focus on temperature-taking, especially when a large percentage of Covid patients don't even present with fever, especially early on when they're still walking around. Seems loss of taste/smell actually has higher correlation - I'm thinking maybe people should be made to smell something and correctly identify it instead (or in addition to - no one wants someone feverish even if it's not Covid)...

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12 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Looks like totals for US are down to just over 20,000 cases yesterday - the lowest since March from looking at the worldometer graph.  And daily deaths at 750.  Not sure if it represents a true drop but the trend looks more like a downward curve than a plateau now. (Although there’s still a lot of bouncing around).

Sadly, I think the reason the US as a whole has flattened is that NYC, which has had such a high percentage of the US cases, finally seems to have gotten things under control.  Most other places are still on the rise, and opening up, simultaneously.  Not a good combo.

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42 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Looks like totals for US are down to just over 20,000 cases yesterday - the lowest since March from looking at the worldometer graph.  And daily deaths at 750.  Not sure if it represents a true drop but the trend looks more like a downward curve than a plateau now. (Although there’s still a lot of bouncing around).

 

It is good that it was lowest since March, but may represent the low weekend reporting phenomenon at least in part. 

I also hope it won’t surge up sharply as several states open, including ones like Georgia which don’t seem ready yet.  I hope that latitude really will prove important for them. 

 

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33 minutes ago, Matryoshka said:

I keep wondering why the obsessive focus on temperature-taking, especially when a large percentage of Covid patients don't even present with fever, especially early on when they're still walking around. Seems loss of taste/smell actually has higher correlation - I'm thinking maybe people should be made to smell something and correctly identify it instead (or in addition to - no one wants someone feverish even if it's not Covid)...

I think that it's just because it is one thing that can be checked quickly.  For some it might be just show but for others I think that it's a "better than nothing" thing since rapid test kits (which really would be the most helpful) are not available to most places. 

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3 hours ago, Matryoshka said:

Sadly, I think the reason the US as a whole has flattened is that NYC, which has had such a high percentage of the US cases, finally seems to have gotten things under control.  Most other places are still on the rise, and opening up, simultaneously.  Not a good combo.

Actually, this is a graph minus NY/NJ/CT area from a Twitter post earlier today. Even if you take out those areas (NY/NJ/CT) and with increased testing, the number of new cases is pretty flat. Obviously, some areas are trending up substantially. Deaths are flat (7 day average) but since that is a lagging indicator, it might still explode in another week or two.

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1 hour ago, EmseB said:

Antibody testing reveals COVID-19 has been in Ohio since January.

https://www.wlwt.com/article/antibody-testing-reveals-covid-19-has-been-in-ohio-since-january-health-officials-say/32438290

I found the link on Twitter here

 

It won't surprise me to hear that it was in many, if not most, US states in late December/early January. We knew a lot of people that were down with something really nasty in January.  One of my son's classes was cancelled for 3 weeks because the instructor's family was very ill with something they picked up during holiday travels.  I know that everyone says "it's a bad flu year" every year, but this year was one that I actually took notice of how many people were down with something really ugly.  Makes one wonder...

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18 minutes ago, MissLemon said:

 

It won't surprise me to hear that it was in many, if not most, US states in late December/early January. We knew a lot of people that were down with something really nasty in January.  One of my son's classes was cancelled for 3 weeks because the instructor's family was very ill with something they picked up during holiday travels.  I know that everyone says "it's a bad flu year" every year, but this year was one that I actually took notice of how many people were down with something really ugly.  Makes one wonder...

I know two unrelated teenage girls who had pneumonia in January and February. They did not have any exposure to each other they just happen to both be friends of my kids. I thought it strange at the time and now looking back it really does make me wonder. There's a part of me that hopes that's not true though because I have a senior this year and everything has been canceled for him which has really stunk. If its been around that long and lots of people have had it already and maybe this was all for naught. We also had a strange virus at the end of February but not enough clear symptoms that lineup to know that it was it. Sure hope we get answers.

ETA they are otherwise really healthy. 

Edited by busymama7
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3 hours ago, StellaM said:

0 new cases in NSW in the last 24 hrs, 6000 tests. 

Wish we were taking another 2 weeks to consolidate that, before we open so many things up, but it is what it is.

Back out there in the community tomorrow, so good to know 

RO above one though, nationally, and has been for a good few days, so not expecting new cases to stay at 0.

Mostly seems to be the meatworks cluster in Vic driving it . Let’s hope that can control it.

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On 5/7/2020 at 12:57 PM, Sneezyone said:


Yeah, DH and I have had some interesting discussions of late. He’s been told his relief has to quarantine for 14 days before reporting but they have Civilian workers on and off the ship everyday because, yeah...

It is interesting but disheartening how the different services and agencies are responding.  My dh works at a DOD level agency and they are being super careful,  They will only allow people to return and go to a closed office-- no open space cubicles allowed.  My dd1 works at an Army facility with her workplace being a giant open space with 300 workers.  There solution is too keep spraying everybody with bleach spray and sort of do social distancing  Fortunately, she is a tech editor and can do her work perfectly fine at home.  In fact, both she and her sister, who does work for a contractor but currently works for them in house (but at home), have both had more productive work schedules at home.  Dh, on the other hand, can do little of his official work at home and although he does have an office, he thinks it may be taken over by someone else.

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On 5/8/2020 at 9:01 AM, Pen said:

 

“Of 1446 consecutive patients, 70 patients were intubated, died, or discharged within 24 hours after presentation and were excluded from the analysis. Of the remaining 1376 patients, during a median follow-up of 22.5 days, 811 (58.9%) received hydroxychloroquine (600 mg twice on day 1, then 400 mg daily for a median of 5 days); 45.8% of the patients were treated within 24 hours after presentation to the emergency department, and 85.9% within 48 hours. Hydroxychloroquine-treated patients were more severely ill at baseline than those who did not receive hydroxychloroquine (median ratio of partial pressure of arterial oxygen to the fraction of inspired oxygen, 223 vs. 360)”

 

bold added. 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2012410?query=main_nav_lg

second worthless study about it

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13 hours ago, whitehawk said:

I got an antibody test today. (My GP apparently decided to interpret LabCorp's "This test is *not* for people with current symptoms" such that my symptoms, being caused by perhaps some tissue damage or other residual effects, are not a current infection.)  From their website:

I'm hoping the results will be available by my telemed appointment in 2 days.

Labcorp is a bad laboratory,.  I wouldn't trust anything from them. I got this opinion solidified after 5 doctors told me never to use Labcorp.

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13 hours ago, calbear said:

This is dismaying to read about this poll in the US.

https://news.yahoo.com/nearly-one-third-americans-believe-090024774.html

 

What I wonder is, how representative is “conspiratorial thinking” ordinarily? Like, I wonder if the existence of social media, the rise in opinion-based “news” shows, and the factionalizing of the American public has made conspiratorial thinking much worse in this pandemic than in past...let’s call them “significant issues.” I guess there isn’t even very much to compare it to, because we haven’t had something that’s a BFD on this scale in...a long time? In my lifetime? Not that affected the entire world...

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12 hours ago, kdsuomi said:

And what of those who can't smell? I have never been able to smell all but a few select things, and this started far before COVID. Other people share this lack of the sense, as well. 

I’ve never had a keen nose, either. A lot of my smell recognition repertoire is quite basic: “that’s a good food smell; that’s a bad food smell; that’s a nice garden smell...” I’m not one of those people who walks in the house and declares' “Ah! Mom’s making chocolate cake!”  

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