wuhan - coronavirus

[sassenach]

34 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

@sassenach@mathnerd

My council member just sent a heads up that Goodwill is reopening their donation centers. 

Gosh, they’re gonna be overrun. All we’ve been doing is cleaning out closets 😂. 

[Arcadia]

11 minutes ago, vonfirmath said:

 

I grew up in Houston, Texas and we didn't have cooling centers either.

I actually wonder if it is a California thing.

Houston https://www.houstontx.gov/health/NewsReleases/coh_heat_emergency_centers_open.html

“HOUSTON, Texas - City cooling centers, consisting of multi-service centers, libraries and recreation centers remain available during normal business hours, however the City of Houston Public Health Heat Emergency Plan has been suspended, including free METRO rides to the centers. 

The plan is activated when the heat index reaches 108 degrees for more than two consecutive days and is suspended when it falls below that threshold.”

[Pen]

2 hours ago, Where's Toto? said:

Ugh, someone tell me that Florida isn't going to be as bad as it sounds?   I"m chatting online with my brother.  Because him and my sil are planning to go to a restaurant to eat today, because they are open.     He works for Disney and thinks the parks are going to open up June 1st.    He also thinks it was here in October so most people were already exposed, that beaches were open two weeks ago and there haven't been new cases so everything is fine, and that it's not as bad as some people think.   Oh yeah, and the heat will keep it from being bad there.

He also thinks he's low risk despite being extremely obese, very high blood pressure, high cholesterol and over 50.   Our chat has turned into me trying to make sure he's at least taking it seriously.   I haven't been following Florida particularly closely except occasional comments here.   Now, seeing on other threads that so many people with basically confirmed by xray/CT scan cases are NOT being counted, and convincing anyone seems hopeless.

 

Did he say why he thinks he is low risk? He may have some real self knowledge that you don’t see.  Even if he is wrong about something like October. 

Does he normally have extremely excellent immunity without vaccines, for example?   Some obese people are remarkably hale and hearty despite appearances.  High blood pressure is considered a risk factor, but I don’t think high cholesterol is.  In fact, if Vitamin D is beneficial for protecting against CV19,  the body uses sunlight to convert cholesterol into useable D Vitamin form so Florida sunshine + cholesterol might be a good thing. 

 

[vonfirmath]

53 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

Houston https://www.houstontx.gov/health/NewsReleases/coh_heat_emergency_centers_open.html

“HOUSTON, Texas - City cooling centers, consisting of multi-service centers, libraries and recreation centers remain available during normal business hours, however the City of Houston Public Health Heat Emergency Plan has been suspended, including free METRO rides to the centers. 

The plan is activated when the heat index reaches 108 degrees for more than two consecutive days and is suspended when it falls below that threshold.”

 

I wonder when these started. As I said--grew up in Houston and don't remember these at all.

 

ETA: It appears they became a thing sometime between a big 1995 heat wave in Chicago and a 2003 wave in France. Since I lived in Washington (state) at the time, I missed it entirely. https://www.cdc.gov/climateandhealth/docs/UseOfCoolingCenters.pdf

 

I remember being told on particularly hot days in Houston to make sure to drink lots of water, and be aware of the signs of heat stroke. But that's it.  Our family had AC but did not use it due to cost.

Edited May 4, 2020 by vonfirmath

[Wheres Toto]

1 hour ago, vonfirmath said:

 

I grew up in Houston, Texas and we didn't have cooling centers either.

I actualy wonder if it is a California thing.

 

 

They have them in NYC and NJ at times, although warming stations in the winter are more common.

Edited May 4, 2020 by Where's Toto?

[Wheres Toto]

55 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Did he say why he thinks he is low risk? He may have some real self knowledge that you don’t see.  Even if he is wrong about something like October. 

Does he normally have extremely excellent immunity without vaccines, for example?   Some obese people are remarkably hale and hearty despite appearances.  High blood pressure is considered a risk factor, but I don’t think high cholesterol is.  In fact, if Vitamin D is beneficial for protecting against CV19,  the body uses sunlight to convert cholesterol into useable D Vitamin form so Florida sunshine + cholesterol might be a good thing. 

 

 

He thinks the only risk factor is age.   Since he's not 70+ years old, he's low risk in his mind.    He doesn't get sick super easy but doesn't manage to avoid things completely either.  He does have bad allergies and a trace of asthma (like me, I barely have to treat it if I control the allergies).    Despite living in Florida, he's not outside very much so I doubt he's doing well with the Vitamin D.  

[Pen]

12 minutes ago, Where's Toto? said:

 

He thinks the only risk factor is age.   Since he's not 70+ years old, he's low risk in his mind.    He doesn't get sick super easy but doesn't manage to avoid things completely either.  He does have bad allergies and a trace of asthma (like me, I barely have to treat it if I control the allergies).    Despite living in Florida, he's not outside very much so I doubt he's doing well with the Vitamin D.  

 

Hmm, oh well.  I hope he will do what he can do to stay safe.  It is hard to convince people, even a sibling, of anything IME. 

[The Governess]

IHME has significantly revised their projections. Why they didn’t account for the eventual relaxing of stay at home orders in the first place is beyond me.  Staying home until deaths dropped all the way to zero was never a possibility... except in their original model. 

https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/us-coronavirus-update-05-04-20/h_18a3fa30e62fa417f6402308aaf3c55b

 

[Bootsie]

1 hour ago, vonfirmath said:

I wonder when these started. As I said--grew up in Houston and don't remember these at all.

 

ETA: It appears they became a thing sometime between a big 1995 heat wave in Chicago and a 2003 wave in France. Since I lived in Washington (state) at the time, I missed it entirely. https://www.cdc.gov/climateandhealth/docs/UseOfCoolingCenters.pdf

 

I remember being told on particularly hot days in Houston to make sure to drink lots of water, and be aware of the signs of heat stroke. But that's it.  Our family had AC but did not use it due to cost.

I grew up in Louisiana--along I-10, not too far from Houston.  We did not have AC at our school (and started school year in mid-August, back in the day before students were allowed to wear shorts to school).  I took ballet--throughout the summer--and the studio was not air conditioned.  

Interestingly I was visiting Europe last summer during a heat wave.  A friend in Switzerland was complaining that it was at least 100 degrees outside--much hotter in his office complex, but his office mates would not allow for even a fan to be turned on, complaining that it would blow germs around.  I also talked to a doctor who was working at a hospital without AC; she was washing her hair in the morning and leaving it wet to try to cool off; at the time I thought of how horrible it would be to be sick in a hospital and dripping with sweat. 

[The Governess]

The NY Times also released this document with CDC projections. They are predicting 3,000 deaths per day by June 1. The scary thing is that their predicted graph is significant below the actual data so far. 

And am I reading this right that by June 1 they are predicting around 175,000 new cases in the US PER DAY?? 

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6926-mayhhsbriefing/af7319f4a55fd0ce5dc9/optimized/full.pdf#page=1

Edited May 4, 2020 by lovelearnandlive

[Arcadia]

California https://abc7news.com/california-stages-to-reopen-newsom-ca-phases-newsoms-plan/6148199/

Update on California’s Pandemic Roadmap https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Update-on-California-Pandemic-Roadmap.pdf

“SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) -- Gov. Gavin Newsom announced Monday that the next stage of reopening California's economy will begin as early as Friday.

Some businesses included in the state's "Stage 2" of reopening will be allowed to resume operations starting Friday, May 8, including bookstores, clothing stores, toy stores, florists and others. Associated manufacturers that support those retail supply chains will also be allowed to resume production.

Those businesses will be allowed to reopen for curbside pick-up, given they follow additional safety and hygiene protocols that will be released Thursday, Newsom said.

This step doesn't include all businesses in the state's "Stage 2," Department of Public Health Director Dr. Sonia Angell clarified. At this time, office buildings, dine-in restaurants and shopping malls will not be allowed to reopen. (The state's full four-stage plan to reopen is outlined below.)

Newsom emphasized that local officials still have the authority to accelerate or slow down reopening at the county level.

"We are not telling locals that believe it's too soon, too fast to modify. We believe those local communities that have separate timelines should be afforded the capacity to advance those timelines," he said, citing the Bay Area's "stricter guidelines."

"If they choose not to come into compliance with the state guidelines, they have that right," the governor said.

More rural or remote counties with fewer COVID-19 cases will also be allowed to reopen businesses sooner, the governor said, as long as their decisions don't risk the "the health of the entire state."

...

The state plans to reopen those sectors in four stages, as described by Dr. Angell:

Stage 1: Everyone is either staying at home or a member of the essential workforce. This is the stage we are in now, and will stay in until a modification to the statewide stay-at-home order.

Stage 2: Reopening lower risk workplaces, including:

• Non-essential manufacturing (toys, furniture, clothing, etc.)
  
• Schools
  
• Childcare facilities
  
• Retail businesses for curbside pick-up
  
• Offices where working remotely isn't possible, but can be modified to make the environment safer for employees

Stage 3: Reopening higher risk workplaces, which require close proximity to other people, including:

• Hair salons
  
• Nail salons
  
• Gyms
  
• Movie theaters
  
• Sporting events without live audiences
  
• In-person religious services (churches and weddings)

Stage 4: Ending the stay-at-home order, which would allow for the reopening of:

• Concert venues
  
• Convention centers
  
• Sporting events with live audiences

As of Monday, the number of COVID-19 cases in California grew to 53,616 and deaths rose to 2,215.”

[Corraleno]

6 minutes ago, lovelearnandlive said:

IHME has significantly revised their projections. Why they didn’t account for the eventual relaxing of stay at home orders in the first place is beyond me.  Staying home until deaths dropped all the way to zero was never a possibility... except in their original model. 

https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/us-coronavirus-update-05-04-20/h_18a3fa30e62fa417f6402308aaf3c55b

 

 

I wish they'd just admit their model is garbage and apologize for causing so much confusion and contributing to so much bad decision-making. 😡

[Pen]

Compounds in various fruits and vegetables (including Hesperidin in citrus fruit (possibly especially in the white inner peel) and Rutin in Apples and buckwheat) and something or other in parsley ...and so forth  ... may be helpful.  

 

Eat your fruits and vegetables!

 

https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202003.0333/v1/download

[vonfirmath]

48 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

I grew up in Louisiana--along I-10, not too far from Houston.  We did not have AC at our school (and started school year in mid-August, back in the day before students were allowed to wear shorts to school).  I took ballet--throughout the summer--and the studio was not air conditioned.  

Interestingly I was visiting Europe last summer during a heat wave.  A friend in Switzerland was complaining that it was at least 100 degrees outside--much hotter in his office complex, but his office mates would not allow for even a fan to be turned on, complaining that it would blow germs around.  I also talked to a doctor who was working at a hospital without AC; she was washing her hair in the morning and leaving it wet to try to cool off; at the time I thought of how horrible it would be to be sick in a hospital and dripping with sweat. 

 

I was on the swim team during the summer. So those really hot days? We'd be outside waiting for our heat to be called. Sometimes we could play in the baby pool. Mostly we stayed under tents and drank a lot and played Uno and read books

 

[Arcadia]

China https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/covid-19-china-young-spenders-ditchyourstuff-economy-sputters-12699588

“BEIJING: Tang Yue, a 27-year-old teacher from the city of Guilin in southwest China, steam-presses a blue dress and takes dozens of photographs before picking one to clinch her 200th online sale.

For a growing number of Chinese like Tang, hit by job losses, furloughs and salary cuts, the consumer economy has begun to spin in reverse. They are no longer buying - they are selling.

 

Instead of emerging from the coronavirus epidemic and returning to the shopping habits that helped drive the world's second-largest economy, many young people are offloading possessions and embracing a new-found ethic for hard times: less is more.

With Tang's monthly salary of about 7,000 yuan (US$988), the self-described shopaholic said she has bought everything from Chanel lipsticks to Apple's latest iPad in the past three years.

But the adrenaline rush that comes with binge-shopping is gone, said Tang, whose wages have been slashed with the suspension of all the classes on tourism management she usually teaches.

...

Xu Chi, a Shanghai-based senior strategic analyst with Zhongtai Securities, said some Chinese consumers may prove the '21 Day Habit Theory,' a popular scientific proposition that it only takes that long to establish new habits.

"We believe people's spending patterns follow the well-known theory, which means most people in China, having been cooped-up at home for more than a month and not having binge-shopped, may break the habit and not return to their old ways," Xu said.

Jiang said she was determined not to return to her free-spending ways and planned to cook more at home.

"I'll turn to cheaper goods for some luxury brands," she said. "I'll choose Huawei's smartphone, because (Apple's) iPhone has too much brand premium."

Tang, who has recently used 100 yuan of shopping coupons to stock up on food, is going to hold the purse strings even tighter.

"I've set my monthly budget at 1,000 yuan," she said. "Including one - and just one - bottle of bubble tea."”

[Halftime Hope]

On 5/4/2020 at 9:00 AM, Arctic Mama said:

https://apnews.com/bf685dcf52125be54e030834ab7062a8
 

I guess it’s not paranoia if you’re right.  Sigh.

A new intelligence report from the Department of Homeland Security obtained by the Associated Press states that U.S. officials believe China covered up the severity of the coronavirus outbreak and the contagiousness of the disease in order to buy time to hoard medical supplies for itself at the expense of the rest of the world. 
 

 

OMG, Arctic.  That what I've been musing to myself, although not quite so succinctly, the past two to three weeks.  It seems like everything I've done in precautions keeps getting proven right, and at one point, I said to my husband, "Waaah!  I'm tired of being right!"   The first time I wore a mask to a big box store, people kept looking at me with pity and derision in their eyes.  And my office mates were contemptuous of the severity the situation -- nah, it's going to be like flu, no one gets upset about that  - and on and on.  Lord bless him, my husband has listened and taken me seriously, since he's the one I'm trying to protect.   But, yeah, "It's not paranoia if your right.....even if people act like you are."

Edited May 6, 2020 by Halftime Hope

[Arcadia]

@StellaM Korea, school reopening measures

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/south-korea-to-reopen-schools-from-may-13-as-covid-19-outbreak-tapers-off

“The Education Ministry said on Monday that high school seniors will be the first to return to school on May 13, while the rest will follow in phases.

... For students in the second year of high school, third year of middle school, and the first two years of elementary school, face-to-face lessons will resume on May 20.

Those in the first year of high school, second year of middle school and grades 3 and 4 in elementary school will return to school on May 27, while those in the first year of middle school and last two years of elementary school will resume lessons on June 1.

... Ms Jeong Eun-kyeong, director-general of the Korea Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, also warned that the possibility of infections in reopened schools is "not high, but is still there".

The Education Ministry said it decided to stagger the reopening of schools based on several factors, such as the academic needs of the various ages, and to allow enough time to assess the impact of the April 30 to May 5 long weekend. Hundreds of thousands of people are expected to travel domestically over the long break, raising concerns about possible new infection clusters forming.

Ms Yoo also said younger pupils will resume lessons earlier as face-to-face learning is more effective for that age. High school seniors, meanwhile, need to prepare for the year-end college entrance exam that has been postponed by two weeks to Dec 3.

Schools also need time to disinfect all their facilities, plan lesson schedules in a way to minimise infection risks in crowded classrooms, and adjust seating arrangements.

They will also conduct regular temperature checks and require students to wear face masks except when having meals.

The ministry said schools nationwide have secured 18 million cotton masks and 14 million hygiene masks in anticipation of lessons restarting.

Should infections occur, schools will move back to online learning to prevent a wider spread.

"Schools cannot go back to the times before the Covid-19 outbreak," Ms Yoo said, noting that students have embraced remote learning, which was once unfamiliar.

"This may become an inconvenient everyday life for all of us. However, we can wisely lead a new daily life if we all cooperate."

South Korea is set to ease its social distancing campaign from Wednesday (May 6), allowing public facilities such as parks, libraries, museums and sports stadiums to reopen. Large gatherings and events, as well as rallies, will also be allowed if organisers take measures against infections.”

[Corraleno]

Below is an excerpt from an article in today's Washington Post that partly explains why we don't have more N95 masks. This guy controls the national stockpile, and he cancelled a program that would have greatly increased US capacity to produce N95 masks, in favor of a vastly more expensive program to buy smallpox and anthrax vaccines. So now we have healthcare workers in homemade cloth masks while we stockpile huge quantities of smallpox vaccines purchased (for high prices, without a bid) from a company for which Kadlec previously worked. The quote about how pandemics are much less concerning than bioweapons because "Mother Nature doesn't develop highly virulent organisms" couldn't be more ironic.

The full article is here.

After Robert Kadlec was confirmed as President Trump’s top official for public health preparedness in 2017, he began pressing to increase government stocks of a smallpox vaccine. His office ultimately made a deal to buy up to $2.8 billion of the vaccine from a company that once paid Kadlec as a consultant, a connection he did not disclose on a Senate questionnaire when he was nominated. Under the agreement struck last year with Emergent BioSolutions, Kadlec’s office at the Department of Health and Human Services is paying more than double the price per dose it had previously paid for the drug. Because Emergent is the only licensed maker of the vaccine, Kadlec’s office arrived at the price through negotiations with the company rather than through bidding.
......
“Quite frankly, Mother Nature is not a thinking enemy intent on inflicting grievous harm to our country, killing our citizens, undermining our government or destroying our way of life,” he told Congress in 2011. “Mother Nature doesn’t develop highly virulent organisms that are resistant to our current stockpiles of antibiotics.”
........
Kadlec committed additional spending to biodefense countermeasures such as smallpox and anthrax vaccines while cutting planned spending on emerging infectious diseases, despite warnings from scientists that a natural contagion could also be devastating. Citing limited resources, his office halted an Obama-era initiative to spend $35 million to build a machine that could produce 1.5 million N95 masks per day, as The Post previously reported."

[ElizabethB]

6 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Below is an excerpt from an article in today's Washington Post that partly explains why we don't have more N95 masks. This guy controls the national stockpile, and he cancelled a program that would have greatly increased US capacity to produce N95 masks, in favor of a vastly more expensive program to buy smallpox and anthrax vaccines. So now we have healthcare workers in homemade cloth masks while we stockpile huge quantities of smallpox vaccines purchased (for high prices, without a bid) from a company for which Kadlec previously worked. The quote about how pandemics are much less concerning than bioweapons because "Mother Nature doesn't develop highly virulent organisms" couldn't be more ironic.

The full article is here.

 

Plenty of blame to go around, from Snopes:

What's True

The U.S. federal stockpile of N95 protective face masks was largely depleted during the 2009 swine flu outbreak and was not restocked.

What's False

However, the Obama administration was not solely responsible for the current shortage of masks. In the intervening years, the stockpile went unreplenished as the Trump administration failed to heed indications that dramatic shortages could occur.

Edited May 4, 2020 by ElizabethB

[Arcadia]

@Pen@Ausmumof3

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/covid-19-salha-mesbee-virus-free-15th-death-12702646
“Singaporean COVID-19 patient was declared virus-free before she died: Daughter

 

SINGAPORE: Ms Salha Mesbee, Singapore's 15th patient to die due to COVID-19, was declared free of the virus before her death, her daughter told Berita Mediacorp. 

The 58-year-old Singaporean had travelled to Turkey with her husband before she tested positive for the coronavirus on Mar 26 and died on Apr 30, the news website reported on Monday (May 4). 

She is the youngest patient in Singapore to die from the disease. 

Her eldest child, Ms Siti Noraisah Ali, said that a week before the death, a doctor told her over the phone that her mother was free of the coronavirus. 

"Mama was confirmed free of COVID-19. Unfortunately, her body was unable to hold on any longer," said Ms Noraisah, 37. 

"We were told Mama's condition had deteriorated, the effects of the virus had reached her brain and hope was thin," said the housewife, who operates a home-based business. 

Her father and two brothers also contracted COVID-19, Ms Noraisah said. 

The four family members were treated at Ng Teng Fong General Hospital but while the three men recovered and were discharged, Ms Salha remained in intensive care after suffering several complications. 

Ms Noraisah told Berita Mediacorp her mother did not have a history of other illnesses. 

"She was admitted into the intensive care unit because her lungs were weak and her blood pressure low. Then it started to spread to other organs such as her kidney and heart. The doctor said she was one of the more critical patients," said Ms Noraisah. 

When Ms Salha was declared virus-free, her family became hopeful. 

"Her battle with COVID-19 had ended. We were happy because she no longer had the disease," said Ms Noraisah.  

But the hope diminished a day later, when the family received shocking news from the doctor. 

"On that last night, the doctor examined her eyes. Mama didn't respond to light, so the doctor did a CT scan and found swelling in her brain," she said. 

"The next morning, the doctor confirmed she was brain dead and she was relying on the life support system. We had to make the decision to keep going or to let her go."”

[Ausmumof3]

6 hours ago, Pen said:

Compounds in various fruits and vegetables (including Hesperidin in citrus fruit (possibly especially in the white inner peel) and Rutin in Apples and buckwheat) and something or other in parsley ...and so forth  ... may be helpful.  

 

Eat your fruits and vegetables!

 

https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202003.0333/v1/download

We are eating healthy and we have been doing part of our school outdoors to up the vitamin d!  Thanks for your reminders - they are very motivating 

[Ausmumof3]

40 minutes ago, square_25 said:

IHME finally updated its model, making it much less symmetric: 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

And of course, that doubled their estimated deaths. 

So it looks like deaths per day have peaked and are in the way down?  
 

 

[Pen]

9 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

We are eating healthy and we have been doing part of our school outdoors to up the vitamin d!  Thanks for your reminders - they are very motivating 

 

If you didn’t check the link, the study was a lab study, not a human study, but the natural flavonoids etc did better in the test than an antiviral drug they were using as a comparison! 

[Pen]

5 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

So it looks like deaths per day have peaked and are in the way down?  
 

 

 

It has been spikey looking graph:  (Worldometer):

 

Edited May 5, 2020 by Pen

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-52540266?__twitter_impression=true
 

what the heck?!

[Ausmumof3]

The thing that keeps buzzing round in my mind is what makes a virus peak and decline?  I mean naturally speaking a peak should be related to reaching herd immunity right?  But if we aren’t near herd immunity what’s making the virus peak?  Social distancing measures and lockdowns?  Or something else.  Because it seems like if the peak is due to the measures relaxing the measures is just going to send the graph back the other way?  Is there any chance that for some reason with this virus we don’t need such a high percentage for herd immunity? 
 

i do believe China is experiencing a second wave in Heilongjiang though its going to be a while till we know what’s really happening if ever.  
 

I don’t really know what I’m asking I’m just seeing a lot of graphs assuming that the peak is passed and we are going to continue to go down and I’m trying to pinpoint what the basis actually is for that assumption.

[Pen]

5 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-52540266?__twitter_impression=true
 

what the heck?!

 

How awful. 

[Pen]

2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

The thing that keeps buzzing round in my mind is what makes a virus peak and decline?  I mean naturally speaking a peak should be related to reaching herd immunity right?  But if we aren’t near herd immunity what’s making the virus peak?  Social distancing measures and lockdowns?  Or something else.  Because it seems like if the peak is due to the measures relaxing the measures is just going to send the graph back the other way?  Is there any chance that for some reason with this virus we don’t need such a high percentage for herd immunity? 
 

i do believe China is experiencing a second wave in Heilongjiang though its going to be a while till we know what’s really happening if ever.  
 

I don’t really know what I’m asking I’m just seeing a lot of graphs assuming that the peak is passed and we are going to continue to go down and I’m trying to pinpoint what the basis actually is for that assumption.

 

I’m not sure the USA graph ups and downs are necessarily hugely meaningful.

Average is something like 1500+ people dying per day from CV19 during April.  It hasn’t been below 1000 on any day since March.  If 3 more weeks go by with out the daily figure topping 2000, then I’ll experience that as going down.  

Right now it just seems like daily ups and Downs.   Plus some reflection of leveling in some former hotspots while other areas get hotter. 

[EmseB]

I have been reading news from various states and it seems like across the board, deaths in nursing homes count for around 40-60% of deaths in each state. Sorry if I missed it earlier, but has anyone compiled this data, because that sounds like huge numbers.

[Ausmumof3]

4 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

I've been watching something interesting here, which is that the reason for the higher peaks is that most states other than NY seem to be worse at record-keeping ;-). NY basically didn't seem to have a weekend lag -- the numbers stayed even on the weekend. Lots of other states (and some countries: see Sweden, for example) don't seem to update their numbers on the weekend barely at all. 

So now that NY is not a huge chunk of the deaths, the data is spikier. 

Here that apparently was driven by less people seeking testing on the weekend meaning Sunday and monday had lower numbers for a couple of weeks 

[Pen]

2 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

I've been watching something interesting here, which is that the reason for the higher peaks is that most states other than NY seem to be worse at record-keeping ;-). NY basically didn't seem to have a weekend lag -- the numbers stayed even on the weekend. Lots of other states (and some countries: see Sweden, for example) don't seem to update their numbers on the weekend barely at all. 

So now that NY is not a huge chunk of the deaths, the data is spikier. 

 

😆

I saw the apparent fewer weekend deaths, but thought there must be a reason other than record keeping—thinking that it would get attributed to correct day even if belatedly. 

I like the record keeping explanation.  I’ll stop trying to think through why there are fewer CV19 deaths on weekends. 

[Pen]

Just now, square_25 said:

For Sweden, I know for a fact it's record-keeping, because Worldometer is keeping track of the day the deaths are reported and the official health agency is keeping track of when the deaths actually were, and let's just say the graphs look VERY different. I can post both if you like, lol. 

 

I will take your word for it!

[Ausmumof3]

Just now, square_25 said:

Oh, interesting. I think in NY, the numbers are mostly still from hospitals, so that's less relevant, maybe? 

Yes probably if only severe cases are getting tested they are getting tested anyway.  Whereas here they want any symptomatic people tested so I guess people go when it suits them.  In qld apparently they have dropping testing rates because not only is there not much Covid around there’s also not much flu or cold around thanks to everyone social distancing and being hygienic.  

[Ausmumof3]

22 minutes ago, square_25 said:

What makes a virus peak is getting the rate of transmission R0 down to below 1. That can happen either via social distancing (if you don't talk to anyone, you can't infect anyone!) or via having a significant chunk of the population infected. You don't even need herd immunity: for instance, if New York's natural R0 was 1.2, then the fact that 20% of the population was already infected gives you that the actual R0 = 1.2*0.8 = 0.96, so yay -- even though without any immunity, we'd have an outbreak, with immunity, we do not! 

And yes, if you don't have very many people infected yet, relaxing the measures is likely to send the graph the other way. 

Oh yeah that makes sense.  So do we have a reason to think R0 is around that without measures or is that just one of several options?  It just I keep seeing other epidemiologists say we need 60-70pc for herd immunity.  And I’m trying to make sense of that.  

[Ausmumof3]

Bbc:  The US records 1,015 virus deaths in 24 hours - the lowest one-day tally in a month

 

[Ausmumof3]

Bbc

A French doctor has claimed to have found evidence that a patient diagnosed with pneumonia on 27 December actually had the coronavirus.

If this is verified, it would prove that the virus was already circulating in France weeks before the first known cases were reported.

The country's first three cases of coronavirus were confirmed on 24 January - almost a whole month afterwards. 

Dr Cohen, head of emergency medicine at Avicenne and Jean-Verdier hospitals near Paris, told a French broadcaster that he had re-tested the nasal swabs of patients with flu-like symptoms in December and January.

"Out of 14 patients, one tested positive. We tested it two more times to make sure there was no mistake. And twice, it came back positive."

 

[Ausmumof3]

1 minute ago, square_25 said:

You can estimate R0 from measured rates of spread, basically. And if things are pretty stable with daily new cases, then it's about 1. 

They are right that you need 60-70 percent for herd immunity, although of course, the idea of herd immunity is a bit dubious since we don't know how long the antibodies last. Are they suggesting we actually try to achieve it? 

No they are mostly using it as a statistic to explain why it’s not a valid strategy.  So I’m trying to figure out if that is a valid call to make or not.

I think for measles you have to have 98pc or so but measles has a crazy high R0.  Sorry just thinking out loud as I figure out how this all connects together

[Ausmumof3]

3 minutes ago, square_25 said:

You can estimate R0 from measured rates of spread, basically. And if things are pretty stable with daily new cases, then it's about 1. 

They are right that you need 60-70 percent for herd immunity, although of course, the idea of herd immunity is a bit dubious since we don't know how long the antibodies last. Are they suggesting we actually try to achieve it? 

Yes but the measurements estimating that are based on current human behaviour right?  Which means if we look at changing human behaviour the R0 is going to change?  

[Ausmumof3]

1 minute ago, square_25 said:

R0 is just the average number of people each person infects, give or take. So yeah, it depends on behavior. If we locked everyone inside a room with automatically delivered food, it would go down rapidly ;-). 

So what I’m trying to understand is why we still have models based on a peak that occurred with an r0 that was lowered due to social distancing when we are talking about ending social distancing.

sorry promise I’m trying not to be argumentative I’m just confused 

[Arcadia]

San Jose https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/south-bay/concerns-over-large-crowds-gathering-for-cinco-de-mayo-during-stay-at-home-orders/2284260/

“That's how some people are describing the impromptu Cinco de Mayo celebrations in San Jose on Sunday. Hundreds of people showed up on Story and King roads for the celebration -- a gathering that did not include social distancing and masks.

Police said they will be out in force on Tuesday on the actual Cinco de Mayo, but concede there is not much they can do if another large gathering erupts.

South Bay

Carlos Diaz, founder of the Alum Rock Business Network, saw the celebration over the weekend and reported seeing only one person wearing a mask. Diaz also said no one was practicing social distancing.

"Obviously it was blatant disrespect for the lives of others," Diaz said.

Councilwoman Magdalena Carrasco saw the images from the celebration and understand that people are feeling the need to get out, but said it cannot happen in the way it was carried out.

"Stay home," she said. "The shelter-at-home order has not been lifted."

Meanwhile, Diaz said the celebration means the community needs to do a better job at handing out information.

For San Jose police it was already a busy weekend, including two officer-involved shootings. Police Chief Eddie Garcia said kicking people out of a packed parking lot for celebrating will not be their highest priority.

"If people think my officers are going into crowds and will try to break them up, and cite them for a violation of a county order -- it's not going to happen," Garcia said.

While police will be out in force on Cinco de Mayo, the chief said he hopes people will police themselves and realize that large parties do not help in convincing the health department to ease its restrictions.”

[Arcadia]

45 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

The thing that keeps buzzing round in my mind is what makes a virus peak and decline?  I mean naturally speaking a peak should be related to reaching herd immunity right?  But if we aren’t near herd immunity what’s making the virus peak?  Social distancing measures and lockdowns?  Or something else.  Because it seems like if the peak is due to the measures relaxing the measures is just going to send the graph back the other way?  Is there any chance that for some reason with this virus we don’t need such a high percentage for herd immunity? 

I think South Korea is staying vigilant and maintaining social distancing while reopening up. I do think herd immunity is still needed because countries aren’t going to shut their borders forever.

https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/achieving-herd-immunity-with-covid19.html

“What will it take to achieve herd immunity with SARS-CoV-2?

As with any other infection, there are two ways to achieve herd immunity: A large proportion of the population either gets infected or gets a protective vaccine. Based on early estimates of this virus’s infectiousness, we will likely need at least 70% of the population to be immune to have herd protection.

• In the worst case (for example, if we do not perform physical distancing or enact other measures to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2), the virus can infect this many people in a matter of a few months. This would overwhelm our hospitals and lead to high death rates.
• In the best case, we maintain current levels of infection—or even reduce these levels—until a vaccine becomes available. This will take concerted effort on the part of the entire population, with some level of continued physical distancing for an extended period, likely a year or longer, before a highly effective vaccine can be developed, tested, and mass produced.
• The most likely case is somewhere in the middle, where infection rates rise and fall over time; we may relax social distancing measures when numbers of infections fall, and then may need to re-implement these measures as numbers increase again. Prolonged effort will be required to prevent major outbreaks until a vaccine is developed. Even then, SARS-CoV-2 could still infect children before they can be vaccinated or adults after their immunity wanes. But it is unlikely in the long term to have the explosive spread that we are seeing right now because much of the population will be immune in the future.”

[Ausmumof3]

4 minutes ago, square_25 said:

You can also theoretically lower R0 by contact tracing and by having people wear masks and by otherwise preventing people from infecting others. 

But no, we don't really know what relaxing social distancing is going to do. I agree with you. 

Lol my Twitter feed must be reading my thoughts 

https://www.mobs-lab.org/uploads/6/7/8/7/6787877/tracing_main_may4.pdf
 

these models look at different scenarios/strategies for Boston.  I haven’t made it through all 31 pages yet but it looks like contact tracing and isolation of known contacts should keep the outbreak below hospital capacity.  They also look at a complete open up a strategy, a partial open up strategy and one where they test but only isolate the immediate household of symptomatic people.  It looks like test trace and isolate really is the best way forward.  We do have that fairly well in place right now so I hope that means opening up more can be done safely.

[Ausmumof3]

3 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

I think South Korea is staying vigilant and maintaining social distancing while reopening up. I do think herd immunity is still needed because countries aren’t going to shut their borders forever.

https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/achieving-herd-immunity-with-covid19.html

“What will it take to achieve herd immunity with SARS-CoV-2?

As with any other infection, there are two ways to achieve herd immunity: A large proportion of the population either gets infected or gets a protective vaccine. Based on early estimates of this virus’s infectiousness, we will likely need at least 70% of the population to be immune to have herd protection.

• In the worst case (for example, if we do not perform physical distancing or enact other measures to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2), the virus can infect this many people in a matter of a few months. This would overwhelm our hospitals and lead to high death rates.
• In the best case, we maintain current levels of infection—or even reduce these levels—until a vaccine becomes available. This will take concerted effort on the part of the entire population, with some level of continued physical distancing for an extended period, likely a year or longer, before a highly effective vaccine can be developed, tested, and mass produced.
• The most likely case is somewhere in the middle, where infection rates rise and fall over time; we may relax social distancing measures when numbers of infections fall, and then may need to re-implement these measures as numbers increase again. Prolonged effort will be required to prevent major outbreaks until a vaccine is developed. Even then, SARS-CoV-2 could still infect children before they can be vaccinated or adults after their immunity wanes. But it is unlikely in the long term to have the explosive spread that we are seeing right now because much of the population will be immune in the future.”

The other thing I wonder is if Coronavirus is like other coronaviruses where immunity lasts 2 - 4 years and we slow transmission down too much does that mean the initial infected people are now losing their immunity meaning we never quite hit the 70pc and it’s just going to keep cycling minus a vaccine.  I guess that is how flu works kind of.   I mean are there some advantages from a herd immunity aspect with a faster outbreak over a slower one?

[ElizabethB]

54 minutes ago, EmseB said:

I have been reading news from various states and it seems like across the board, deaths in nursing homes count for around 40-60% of deaths in each state. Sorry if I missed it earlier, but has anyone compiled this data, because that sounds like huge numbers.

I thought a website somewhere was tracking it now, I couldn't find it.  The latest I could find was an article with numbers for the 29 states releasing that data, from 15 April.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/coronavirus-deaths-u-s-nursing-homes-soar-more-5-500-n1184536

ETA: This article says 1/5 of deaths from nursing homes.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/us/coronavirus-nursing-homes.html

 

Edited May 5, 2020 by ElizabethB

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, EmseB said:

I have been reading news from various states and it seems like across the board, deaths in nursing homes count for around 40-60% of deaths in each state. Sorry if I missed it earlier, but has anyone compiled this data, because that sounds like huge numbers.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/half-of-coronavirus-deaths-happen-in-care-homes-data-from-eu-suggests
 

Not for US but Europe 

I have seen one person from Belgium comment that the reason their death toll appears higher than for other European countries is because they are counting care home deaths more often. 

Edited May 5, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[sbgrace]

1 hour ago, EmseB said:

I have been reading news from various states and it seems like across the board, deaths in nursing homes count for around 40-60% of deaths in each state. Sorry if I missed it earlier, but has anyone compiled this data, because that sounds like huge numbers.

My state tracks nursing home deaths--and when a COVID case appears in a nursing home here, they send a team to test everyone, so I think their counts are accurate.

I calculated 36% of my state's total COVID deaths are in nursing homes/long term care homes. 

[EmseB]

1 hour ago, square_25 said:

I wouldn't be surprised, but I think those would have to include a lot of probable deaths? At least for NY, they are reporting way fewer "tested" nursing home deaths than hospital deaths. But that may be a vast underestimate of nursing home deaths. 

It's just the odd tweet here or there where someone I read from x state will say that 40% of deaths in their state are from nursing homes, and then someone else in a different state will say that it's 56% in their state...none of it is coalesced or sourced that I could find, it just struck me as too impossibly high.

[Matryoshka]

38 minutes ago, kdsuomi said:

I saw that 40% of CA COVID-19 deaths are in nursing homes. LA County is at about 46% and Orange County roughly 25%. 

I thought it was much higher than that here,  so I looked it up... oh my, it's 60% in MA. There's been 71 deaths just at the one Veterans home, but also two others nursing homes with 49 and 46.  RI has an even higher percentage,  at 71%.

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, EmseB said:

It's just the odd tweet here or there where someone I read from x state will say that 40% of deaths in their state are from nursing homes, and then someone else in a different state will say that it's 56% in their state...none of it is coalesced or sourced that I could find, it just struck me as too impossibly high.

Also france’s overall stats were looking better  and then they retrospectively added a lot of nursing home deaths and it changed things.  

[Ausmumof3]

I listened to the latest press conference and it looks like we are getting pretty serious about opening back up here.  Lots of work toward getting businesses compliant with social distancing.

the Pm made the point about how many jobs are lost due to schools not being opened (300,000).  One reporter asked if he could equally say how many cases or deaths are likely to occur due to schools open and he said I think that they didn’t have modelling for that.  That seemed kind of odd to me.