wuhan - coronavirus

[Ausmumof3]

43 minutes ago, JennyD said:

 

FWIW I would also feel uncomfortable about going but I also think that my reaction would not be entirely rational.  

Thanks

i think I’m going to message privately and say we’d like to wait one more week but if the situation remains stable we will come from then on.  I may go buy dd her own riding helmet.

[Ausmumof3]

43 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

About a “second wave”?

I think for USA concern is it Could be a worse wave than the current one.  More virulent perhaps and on top of the next winter illnesses season. 

I think Australia is probably in better shape in that regard.  You are going into winter with what looks like a genuine plateau, or even better a significant decline in CV19 problems . 

Well more about the whole thread.  He seems to be saying us won’t have a second wave because you aren’t through the first one.  You have a drawn out plateau but not on a downhill slope yet and with distancing relaxing it will go up again.  I’m just wondering if that’s true.  I think worldometer had approximately 30,000 cases yesterday, which is still around the same for most of the last couple of weeks.

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.tmj4.com/news/coronavirus/food-processing-plants-see-surge-in-covid-19-cases-including-more-than-100-in-darien
 

not just meat plants - 100 workers have test positive at a bird eye food processing plant as well.

[Pen]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Well more about the whole thread.  He seems to be saying us won’t have a second wave because you aren’t through the first one.  You have a drawn out plateau but not on a downhill slope yet and with distancing relaxing it will go up again.  I’m just wondering if that’s true.  I think worldometer had approximately 30,000 cases yesterday, which is still around the same for most of the last couple of weeks.

 

I suppose it depends upon how one pictures a wave. If image is a sine wave which goes in regular up and down curves with a first curve needing to be completely done before a second can begin that may be so.

 I picture a wave as being at a beach along the USA Pacific Ocean: in which case it rather often happens that one breaker will be foaming up onto the sand and not yet receding back to sea before a second large curl of ocean water will come crashing down and send its water along with the waters of the first wave moving up the shore... and nothing stops a third wave from breaking close after the first two before waters have gone back seawards...

  It’s a sort of second wave in the ocean that can easily catch people unawares if they are playing in the foam of the first wave when they are suddenly knocked off their feet and tumbled under by the second one. 

Or manage the second but get hit by the third.

That’s what I picture. 

(The Atlantic tends not to get waves like this.) 

I would think Australia would have this too, but in case not:

https://youtu.be/NOIBiHx5duM

 

Edited May 1, 2020 by Pen

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.23.20076042v1.full.pdf
 

preprint study from Uk. Overview of all hospitalised patient outcomes from 6th feb to 18th april

“Results - The median age was 72 years [IQR 57, 82; range 0, 104], the median duration of symptoms before admission was 4 days [IQR 1,8] and the median duration of hospital stay was 7 days [IQR 4,12]. The commonest comorbidities were chronic cardiac disease (29%), uncomplicated diabetes (19%), non-asthmatic chronic pulmonary disease (19%) and asthma (14%); 47% had no documented reported comorbidity. Increased age and comorbidities including obesity were associated with a higher probability of mortality. Distinct clusters of symptoms were found: 1. respiratory (cough, sputum, sore throat, runny nose, ear pain, wheeze, and chest pain); 2. systemic (myalgia, joint pain and fatigue); 3. enteric (abdominal pain, vomiting and diarrhoea). Overall, 49% of patients were discharged alive, 33% have died and 17% continued to receive care at date of reporting. 17% required admission to High Dependency or Intensive Care Units; of these, 31% were discharged alive, 45% died and 24% continued to receive care at the reporting date. Of those receiving mechanical ventilation, 20% were discharged alive, 53% died and 27% remained in hospital.”

[Ausmumof3]

21 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

I suppose it depends upon how one pictures a wave. If image is a sine wave which goes in regular up and down curves with a first curve needing to be completely done before a second can begin that may be so.

 I picture a wave as being at a beach along the USA Pacific Ocean: in which case it rather often happens that one breaker will be foaming up onto the sand and not yet receding back to sea before a second large curl of ocean water will come crashing down and send its water along with the waters of the first wave moving up the shore... and nothing stops a third wave from breaking close after the first two before waters have gone back seawards...

  It’s a sort of second wave in the ocean that can easily catch people unawares if they are playing in the foam of the first wave when they are suddenly knocked off their feet and tumbled under by the second one. 

Or manage the second but get hit by the third.

That’s what I picture. 

(The Atlantic tends not to get waves like this.) 

I would think Australia would have this too, but in case not:

https://youtu.be/NOIBiHx5duM

 

That makes sense!  I was thinking of it more in a scientific sense like a wave on a graph where you have a curve that comes down and then starts going up.  If it’s being used in a metaphorical sense it works.

[Pen]

6 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

That makes sense!  I was thinking of it more in a scientific sense like a wave on a graph where you have a curve that comes down and then starts going up.  If it’s being used in a metaphorical sense it works.

 

The (very real, not metaphorical at all) Pacific Ocean type wave is so strong in my mind it took me quite awhile to figure out what must be in the minds of people saying there couldn’t be a second wave because first wasn’t over yet. 

[Ausmumof3]

Just now, Pen said:

 

The (very real, not metaphorical at all) Pacific Ocean type wave is so strong in my mind it took me quite awhile to figure out what must be in the minds of people saying there couldn’t be a second wave because first wasn’t over yet. 

We do have those kind of back to back waves too... 

[Corraleno]

14 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.23.20076042v1.full.pdf
 

preprint study from Uk. Overview of all hospitalised patient outcomes from 6th feb to 18th april

“Results - The median age was 72 years [IQR 57, 82; range 0, 104], the median duration of symptoms before admission was 4 days [IQR 1,8] and the median duration of hospital stay was 7 days [IQR 4,12]. The commonest comorbidities were chronic cardiac disease (29%), uncomplicated diabetes (19%), non-asthmatic chronic pulmonary disease (19%) and asthma (14%); 47% had no documented reported comorbidity. Increased age and comorbidities including obesity were associated with a higher probability of mortality. Distinct clusters of symptoms were found: 1. respiratory (cough, sputum, sore throat, runny nose, ear pain, wheeze, and chest pain); 2. systemic (myalgia, joint pain and fatigue); 3. enteric (abdominal pain, vomiting and diarrhoea). Overall, 49% of patients were discharged alive, 33% have died and 17% continued to receive care at date of reporting. 17% required admission to High Dependency or Intensive Care Units; of these, 31% were discharged alive, 45% died and 24% continued to receive care at the reporting date. Of those receiving mechanical ventilation, 20% were discharged alive, 53% died and 27% remained in hospital.”

Those are some really scary stats 😥

[Ausmumof3]

13 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Those are some really scary stats 😥

Yes once hospitalised the outcomes aren’t great ☹️
also the study included 239 under 18 and 139 of those under 5.  As a percentage of the overall but for the families in that situation, incredibly scary.  

Edited May 1, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[Ausmumof3]

Reading through the study 4pc of patients presented purely with gastro type symptoms no respiratory symptoms.  Which means if we are only testing with respiratory symptoms we could be missing cases I guess.

[TravelingChris]

10 hours ago, Arcadia said:

crosspost

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/cooling-center.html

"COVID-19 and Cooling Centers

Interim guidance to reduce the risk of introducing and transmitting SARS COV-2 (the agent responsible for causing COVID-19 disease) in cooling centers.

Who this guidance is for: Federal, state, local, and tribal jurisdictions in the United States considering opening or operating cooling centers during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Considerations and Potential Intervention Strategies

Utility Assistance

Consider implementing or expanding programs that provide utility assistance, such as the low-income home energy assistance program (LIHEAP) or similar methods that provide financial assistance for home air conditioner use. A temporary ban on utility shut-offs during heat waves would allow people to continue using home air conditioning. This strategy could lower the number of people utilizing cooling centers.

Staff and Volunteers

Plan for staff and volunteer absences. Develop flexible attendance and sick-leave policies. Staff (and volunteers) may need to stay home when they are sick, caring for a sick household member, or caring for their children during school dismissals. Identify critical job functions and positions, and plan for alternative coverage by cross-training cooling center staff.

Screening and Alternative Sites for Symptomatic and Asymptomatic Individuals

If resources are available, consider implementing verbal screening or temperature checks before admitting visitors to the cooling center. If possible, provide alternative cooling sites for those showing symptoms of COVID-19 (i.e., fever, cough, shortness of breath). This may be separate rooms within cooling centers or a space that can be used to accommodate visitors with symptoms and separate them from others. Designate an alternate site, or a separate room and bathroom (if available) for visitors with mild illness who remain at the cooling center. Be prepared to contact emergency officials (call 911) in the case of severe illness requiring medical assistance.

Physical Distancing

Maintain social (physical) distancing within cooling centers, ideally at least six feet between individuals. Consider separation of furniture and creating spaces for individual family units (families who live together do not need to maintain physical distancing in a cooling center). In larger cooling center facilities, it may be possible to provide adequate space for social distancing among visitors. Smaller cooling centers can limit the number of visitors, in accordance with local guidelines that limit the size of gatherings. This could lower capacity, so consider setting up a greater number of smaller cooling centers. If a lack of potential cooling center sites arises, emergency alternatives such as using parked air-conditioned buses can be utilized. Communities may also partner with closed businesses, such as movie theaters, as alternative cooling sites.

Air Filtration

It may not be possible to locate cooling centers in buildings with high ventilation capacity similar to healthcare facilities. If possible cooling centers should be equipped with air exchange systems, and be located in buildings with tall ceilings. Utilize the highest efficiency filters that are compatible with the cooling center’s existing HVAC system, and adopt “clean-to-dirty” directional airflows. If resources allow, ceiling fans with upward airflow rotation combined with upper-air ultraviolet germicidal irradiation (UVGI) disinfection systems can be utilized. When conditions allow (low humidity), shaded outdoor spaces with cross-draft airflow augmented by evaporative coolers may provide a safer alternative.

Cleaning

Follow the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) cleaning and disinfection guidelines for community facilities, and cleaning facilities if someone is sick. Because even individuals with no symptoms can still transmit the virus, and the virus can survive for several days on non-porous surfaces, it is important to continue routine cleaning and disinfection (every day if possible) with a focus on high touch surfaces, including those in common areas and bathrooms.

Communication

Enhance communication about COVID-19 onsite. Use health messages and materials developed by credible public health sources, such as your local and state public health departments or CDC. Read more about everyday preventive actions. Share or post COVID-19 posters and CDC Fact Sheets and keep your visitors informed about public health recommendations to prevent disease spread. Messaging may include:

• Posting signs at entrances and in strategic places providing instruction on hand hygiene, respiratory hygiene, cough etiquette, and cloth face coverings.
• Providing educational materials about COVID-19 for non-English speakers, as needed.
• Encouraging ill staff and volunteers to stay home (or be sent home if they develop symptoms while at the facility), to prevent transmitting the infection to others.

Identify and address potential language, cultural, and disability barriers associated with communicating COVID-19 information to workers, volunteers, and those visiting cooling centers. Learn more about reaching people of diverse languages and cultures.

Prevention Supplies

If available, provide COVID-19 prevention supplies onsite at cooling centers. Have supplies on hand for staff, volunteers, and visitors, such as soap, alcohol-based hand sanitizers that contain at least 60% alcohol, tissues, and trash baskets. Visitors and staff should wear a cloth face covering, or if supplies are available, be given a clean disposable facemaskpdf icon, even if they are not showing any symptoms. Cloth face coverings should not be placed on young children under age 2, anyone who has trouble breathing, or is unconscious, incapacitated or otherwise unable to remove the mask without assistance. Place posters that encourage hand hygiene to help stop the spread at the entrance to the facility, at sinks in restrooms, and in other areas where they are likely to be seen. If water bottles are distributed at the cooling center, ensure visitors to not share bottles or glasses."

Where are cooling centers

[TravelingChris]

9 hours ago, Matryoshka said:

I am similarly perplexed.  By the numbers, Georgia is one of the last states that should be reopening. And they seem to have opened the stuff that I'd think should be opened last, with high possibility of transmission mixed with not particularly 'essential' services, first (nail salons? massage and tattoo parlors? bowling alleys???)

Yes, my dh has been joking about 'essential tattoos:

[Ausmumof3]

https://academic.oup.com/ajcn/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ajcn/nqaa095/5826147
 

Study shows an association/correlation between areas in China with selenium deficiency and higher mortality rates for Coronavirus.  
 

obviously a long way from being any firm conclusions but I hope some researchers do more on this.  Soil in parts of my state is known for being selenium deficient.

[TracyP]

7 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1255976675252158465?s=21

thoughts?

With some states on an upward trend and some on a downward trend, I think a plateau is a pretty good guess. 

One unknown is the impact summer will have on outbreaks. If summer has a significant impact then I think we could see a real peak with a significant downward trend before a "second wave".

Also I think this is a place where looking at the U.S. as a whole will never show a clear picture. Waves are only going to be visible when they happen in states with high populations. 

Over half of the U.S. population is concentrated in just 10 states. Many of the other 40 states could have huge (for them) outbreaks without it even registering on a graph of the situation. What happens in those 10 most populated states is largely going to drive how the U.S. situation looks on paper.

[RootAnn]

4 hours ago, TravelingChris said:

Where are cooling centers

I'm not positive what you are asking, but the city sets up locations where those who don't have access to A/C (both homeowners & homeless) can go to cool off & get rehydrated. In my childhood hometown (midwest), they were more in the downtown / business areas than residential districts. The ones I remember were in a senior center, a YMCA, and a temporarily empty shopfront -- so dual-purposed areas or temporarily re-purposed areas. They also had fans to give away. I don't remember bottled water, but this would have been 35+ years ago, so maybe we just used Styrofoam cups from an Igloo cooler.

[HeartString]

2 hours ago, Happymomof1 said:

 

So the difference between Georgia and Texas is there are more blacks with high blood pressure????  That doesn't jive for me.

 

The main difference is GA had the misfortune of having a super spreader event.  It was just bad luck on Georgia’s part.  

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/us/coronavirus-funeral-albany-georgia.amp.html

Edited May 1, 2020 by Cnew02
Clarity

[Matryoshka]

9 minutes ago, Cnew02 said:

The main difference is GA had the misfortune of having a super spreader event.  It was just bad luck on Georgia’s part.  

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/us/coronavirus-funeral-albany-georgia.amp.html

The more this thing goes on, the more I think that serious spread is driven by super spreader events, which unfortunately are random and unpredictable.  It's like most people might infect a few people if they were out and about, but one unpredictable superspreader can infect dozens, and then it gets out of hand.

Our state's outbreak (currently 3rd largest in US just behind NY and NJ) was also started by a superspreader event.  And then there just was the local Walmart that had 23 employees get symptomatic cases in one week.  All the Walmarts (and groceries etc.) are open the same way and have been for the past month and a half.  Some have had a couple people get sick and there have been a few deaths here and there.  But nothing like 23 cases in a week in one store - they're testing all the employees (500) now.  Fortunately we've actually started contact tracing here.

[Pen]

On “second wave”—

When I used to spend a lot of time in hospital emergency departments (A&E in UK) at a time with lots of patients—for example a holiday that would tend to have many car crash victims, it was common to say something like “a first wave started coming in at around 10PM, and then there was a second worse wave at around 2AM” — is this not an expression used in other situations for English speakers?   (Or perhaps even different times or places?) I cannot even think of any word other than “wave” that was used for a large upsurge of arriving patients.

I thought people in news and social media saying ‘there can’t be a second wave because first wave is not done’ were being deliberately obtuse, but maybe this is not common English outside of hospital Emergency Department setting?  Or ... my parent physicians are same age-ish as Fauci, maybe it’s an expression from “the old days” no longer used?

 

 

  

[Ausmumof3]

19 minutes ago, Pen said:

On “second wave”—

When I used to spend a lot of time in hospital emergency departments (A&E in UK) at a time with lots of patients—for example a holiday that would tend to have many car crash victims, it was common to say something like “a first wave started coming in at around 10PM, and then there was a second worse wave at around 2AM” — is this not an expression used in other situations for English speakers?   (Or perhaps even different times or places?) I cannot even think of any word other than “wave” that was used for a large upsurge of arriving patients.

I thought people in news and social media saying ‘there can’t be a second wave because first wave is not done’ were being deliberately obtuse, but maybe this is not common English outside of hospital Emergency Department setting?  Or ... my parent physicians are same age-ish as Fauci, maybe it’s an expression from “the old days” no longer used?

 

 

  

Oh I think the person whose tweet I was looking at is something medical but i can’t remember now. 

[Arcadia]

5 hours ago, TravelingChris said:

Where are cooling centers

The city and county websites would have the updated information on locations when there is heatwave or red flag (wildfire) warning.

 For California https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/CoolingCenters/

Santa Clara County https://www.sccgov.org/sites/oes/residents/Pages/cooling-centers.aspx

[Pen]

24 minutes ago, Matryoshka said:

The more this thing goes on, the more I think that serious spread is driven by super spreader events, which unfortunately are random and unpredictable.  It's like most people might infect a few people if they were out and about, but one unpredictable superspreader can infect dozens, and then it gets out of hand.

Our state's outbreak (currently 3rd largest in US just behind NY and NJ) was also started by a superspreader event.  And then there just was the local Walmart that had 23 employees get symptomatic cases in one week.  All the Walmarts (and groceries etc.) are open the same way and have been for the past month and a half.  Some have had a couple people get sick and there have been a few deaths here and there.  But nothing like 23 cases in a week in one store - they're testing all the employees (500) now.  Fortunately we've actually started contact tracing here.

 

I think “superspreader” events are clearly known to be a significant driver behind somewhere rapidly becoming a hotspot, yes. That’s part of the nature of this particular pandemic.  

Asymptomatic carrier spread that can result in “superspreading” has significantly driven infection rates in many outbreaks. 

Testing and contact tracing in certain particularly vulnerable areas that are also essential services  (nursing homes, food production, etc) first can help. But any business meeting, church, ski chalet, etc, that’s open can become a superspread event hub. 

SARS1 was quite good at traveling by plane, but SARS2 is an amazing master at traveling.  

It is unfortunate that people are not always doing as much as they can to avoid spread when it is avoidable—situations like @Happymomof1 described. 

“running errands with husband, though I am staying in the car. We are the only ones with masks.  Tons of friends and couples out and going in. We had drive in church last week and some of the senior adults are hugging each other. We told them the reason we were doing drive in was to protect them. But the policemen are all congregating in the parking lot, no masks no social distancing, ...”

 

Edited May 1, 2020 by Pen

[Arcadia]

24 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

I thought people in news and social media saying ‘there can’t be a second wave because first wave is not done’ were being deliberately obtuse, but maybe this is not common English outside of hospital Emergency Department setting?  Or ... my parent physicians are same age-ish as Fauci, maybe it’s an expression from “the old days” no longer used?  

My generation is familiar with this Chinese idiom 一波未平，一波又起 which means “hardly has one wave subsided when another rises—one trouble follows another”. 
I was often as A&E as there wasn’t urgent care, or rather urgent care was in A&E. When there is a lure between waves, it’s easier to say next wave incoming as the triage nurses go round prepping. Now social distancing has flattened the wave, so people might be thinking that technically there is no second wave since it’s a stretched out first wave. 
 

I think New Zealand is more able to think about a second wave because they are seeing the tail end of the first. 
 

In Singapore, the laymen calls the return of citizens from China the first wave, the return of citizens from Europe and US the second wave. Because they are looking at outside source of infection. So when citizens return from Middle East, people were wandering about a third wave. 

[Pen]

Nicaragua:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30218-7/fulltext

[ElizabethB]

6 hours ago, Corraleno said:

Those are some really scary stats 😥

I wonder what their vitamin D levels were? The Indonesian Study was hospitalized patients, I think, 4.1% death rate D above 29, 88% death rate D between 19 and 29, and 99% death rate D below 19. 

 

[ElizabethB]

3 hours ago, Happymomof1 said:

So the difference between Georgia and Texas is there are more blacks with high blood pressure????  That doesn't jive for me.

I'm more inclined to think a bit high blood pressure, mostly vitamin D.

Georgia: According to 2018 US Census Bureau estimates, Georgia's population was 58.3% White (52.2% Non-Hispanic White and 6.0% Hispanic White), 31.6% Black or African American, 4.2% Asian, 2.9% Some Other Race, 0.3% Native American and Alaskan Native, 0.1% Pacific Islander and 2.7% from two or more races.

Texas: According to the 2018 US Census Bureau estimates, the population of Texas was 73.5% White (41.4% Non-Hispanic White and 32.1% Hispanic White), 12.3% Black or African American, 5.0% Asian, 0.5% Native American and Alaskan Native, 0.1% Pacific Islander, 6.0% Some Other Race, and 2.7% from two or more races.

Georgia 32% black vs Texas 12% black.  Texas has more hispanic individuals than Georgia but they don't have as big of a vitamin D disparity.

 

[ElizabethB]

21 minutes ago, Happymomof1 said:

Ok, weird question, do I warn my friends that are black that they need to be particularly concerned with taking extra Vitamin D or is that racist?  We tend not to bring up race issues.  But their seems to be a definite statistical difference.

I told all my friends and family, and warned those with darker skin that they were even more likely to be D deficient.  I did warn my black twitter followers specifically with a LinkedIn article I wrote discussing the racial death gap. Possibly saving people's lives is more important than worrying if it's PC or not.  Native Americans are also very likely to be deficient, hispanic Americans a bit more likely than whites but not much.  But, the overall white averages aren't great, and it's lower for older Americans, so just warn everyone.  The Native American levels are likely why Navajo Nation is being hit so hard.

One thing about black Americans, if they live too far north it may be impossible for them to get enough vitamin D from the sun.  

Of course, I was already posting tons of Vitamin D links on my twitter then, so they probably knew already, but it could be super important.  Here is the LinkedIn article:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/vitamin-d-coronavirus-gap-liz-brown/

Here is my non race specific LinkedIn article summarizing the Vitamin D correlations:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/vitamin-d-covid-correlations-keep-coming-liz-brown/

 

Edited May 1, 2020 by ElizabethB

[Acadie]

26 minutes ago, Happymomof1 said:

Ok, weird question, do I warn my friends that are black that they need to be particularly concerned with taking extra Vitamin D or is that racist?  We tend not to bring up race issues.  But their seems to be a definite statistical difference.

 

Vitamin D tends to be lower in people of color, people who live in northern latitudes and people who routinely wear head coverings or modest clothing. There are lots of us who have one or more of those risk factors, and there's also a genetic tendency to low D in some folks (but that's not something anyone could realistically look into at this point).

Below is what I've posted and sent to the people I know and love--all of them. 

Hey, friends! Two things. Please add vitamin D3 to your morning routine if you don't take it already. 2,000 IU daily, preferably in combination w/vit K. Decades of research show dramatic reduction of respiratory infections with vit D supplementation--including those in the coronavirus family--AND it's part of COVID-19 treatment protocols in many hospitals. 

Especially important if you live in northern latitudes (check for my family), are a person of color (check for the Lebanese side of our family), or routinely wear head coverings or modest clothing that shade you from the sun. 

Also consider buying a pulse oximeter. If anyone in your household develops respiratory symptoms, it could help you and your healthcare provider determine if you need medical care or can recover safely at home. These little devices are amazing--they used to be available only in hospitals, but now can tell you how well you're oxygenating at home. Local pharmacies may have some in stock, or Amazon (prices going up lately). 

If you're picking one of the two, to support your health? Vitamin D3, for sure.

[ElizabethB]

In Italy, only 20 out of 65,000 Lupus patients got Covid-19.

https://internetprotocol.co/hype-news/2020/04/30/covid19-explanation-hcq-works/

[Acadie]

1 minute ago, Happymomof1 said:

Ok, I just have to be really, really careful.  Because hubby is a doc, they look at it as medical advice, which I do not feel qualified to give if that makes sense.

 

Would it seem less like medical advice if you didn't mention a dose or the pulse oximeter? Everything else in that message is common knowledge, I believe.

[RootAnn]

I would add that obese people also are likely to have low Vitamin D levels. True & also hits one of the big groups that is higher risk with this virus.

[TracyP]

2 hours ago, Pen said:

On “second wave”—

When I used to spend a lot of time in hospital emergency departments (A&E in UK) at a time with lots of patients—for example a holiday that would tend to have many car crash victims, it was common to say something like “a first wave started coming in at around 10PM, and then there was a second worse wave at around 2AM” — is this not an expression used in other situations for English speakers?   (Or perhaps even different times or places?) I cannot even think of any word other than “wave” that was used for a large upsurge of arriving patients.

I thought people in news and social media saying ‘there can’t be a second wave because first wave is not done’ were being deliberately obtuse, but maybe this is not common English outside of hospital Emergency Department setting?  Or ... my parent physicians are same age-ish as Fauci, maybe it’s an expression from “the old days” no longer used?

 

 

  

That is how I understand the term as well. I don't know what it would mean for the first wave to be done. Unless we have a huge downward turn in cases due to summer weather, I don't see anything happening to make the first wave "done." 

It does seem like a lot of people assume we will see a big drop in the number of daily cases before the next upsurge - the second wave. I'm not sure it will work that way. I think a lot of states are looking to open up and hold their cases relatively flat. Outbreaks will pop up causing localized waves. How well we identify these outbreaks will determine what subsequent waves look like.

It may be that the U.S. as a whole does not have a second wave as different areas experience upticks and downward trends at different times. That makes the twitter link about plateau a feasible scenario. Again, this is all only on paper because waves will undoubtedly be happening all around the U.S. at different times and different places.

All that said, I didn't address whether or not a place can have a second wave before the first wave is finished. I would say you absolutely could, so I don't think your understanding of the term is out of date in any way. Suggesting there could be a plateau rather than a second wave seems like a valid point of view. Suggesting that their won't be a second wave because the first isn't done does seem deliberately obtuse.

[Jentrovert]

4 hours ago, Happymomof1 said:

Oh, well then it is only a matter of time before this happens here. I'm out running errands with husband, though I am staying in the car. We are the only ones with masks.  Tons of friends and couples out and going in. We had drive in church last week and some of the senior adults are hugging each other. We told them the reason we were doing drive in was to protect them. But the policemen are all congregating in the parking lot, no masks no social distancing, so if they are setting the tone. 🙄. In some ways I hate this board. I cannot unknown what I know.  If I wasn't on here I would think it was being overblown and our governor is overreaching.  Instead I am watching a horror movie in slow motion. No wonder I can't sleep.

Same here (well, and if dh didn't keep up on it all). I have seen a handful of masks at the grocery store, but it seems like they are only being worn by a few people 65+.  It does seem like maybe people aren't shopping as families, bc I haven't seen many children. 

[TravelingChris]

5 hours ago, RootAnn said:

I'm not positive what you are asking, but the city sets up locations where those who don't have access to A/C (both homeowners & homeless) can go to cool off & get rehydrated. In my childhood hometown (midwest), they were more in the downtown / business areas than residential districts. The ones I remember were in a senior center, a YMCA, and a temporarily empty shopfront -- so dual-purposed areas or temporarily re-purposed areas. They also had fans to give away. I don't remember bottled water, but this would have been 35+ years ago, so maybe we just used Styrofoam cups from an Igloo cooler.

Oh I have lived in Chicago and Ohio and had no A/C and there were no cooling centers then.  I don't think we ever had a really hot spell in Chicago when we lived there.  We did in Ohio and I was pregnant and would take my 4 year old to the library or to a movie or to a store, etc.  

[TravelingChris]

3 hours ago, ElizabethB said:

I'm more inclined to think a bit high blood pressure, mostly vitamin D.

Georgia: According to 2018 US Census Bureau estimates, Georgia's population was 58.3% White (52.2% Non-Hispanic White and 6.0% Hispanic White), 31.6% Black or African American, 4.2% Asian, 2.9% Some Other Race, 0.3% Native American and Alaskan Native, 0.1% Pacific Islander and 2.7% from two or more races.

Texas: According to the 2018 US Census Bureau estimates, the population of Texas was 73.5% White (41.4% Non-Hispanic White and 32.1% Hispanic White), 12.3% Black or African American, 5.0% Asian, 0.5% Native American and Alaskan Native, 0.1% Pacific Islander, 6.0% Some Other Race, and 2.7% from two or more races.

Georgia 32% black vs Texas 12% black.  Texas has more hispanic individuals than Georgia but they don't have as big of a vitamin D disparity.

 

Not just high blood pressure.  Asthma is much more common in that group too.  

[Arcadia]

31 minutes ago, TravelingChris said:

Oh I have lived in Chicago and Ohio and had no A/C and there were no cooling centers then.  I don't think we ever had a really hot spell in Chicago when we lived there.  We did in Ohio and I was pregnant and would take my 4 year old to the library or to a movie or to a store, etc.  

 

E.g. 

Ohio https://www.211centralohio.org/MatchList.aspx?c;;0;;N;0;0;Emergency Food, Clothing, Furniture and Disaster Services;Disaster Services;636;Extreme Heat Cooling Centers

Chicago https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/depts/fss/provdrs/serv/svcs/dfss_cooling_centers.html

[TracyP]

1 hour ago, Happymomof1 said:

How is it obtuse? Now that you have explained it I understand I guess. But in my mind for a wave to be over it needs to receed. Our cases have been slowly albeit steadily going up.  So to me, we have not finished our first wave.  New York City, on the other hand, could have a second wave if their numbers rebound significantly. A wave doesn't need to go to 0, but it needs to go down some. If the Texas numbers make a big jump in June I consider that part of the first wave.

I would consider that part of the first wave too. The obtuse part is thinking that there could not be a second wave before the first has started to receed. Another significant outbreak in NYC is going to be considered a second wave, even if nationally cases have not started to go down. Likewise a huge upsurge in the fall is going to be considered a second wave even if cases stay relatively flat until then. This is all semantics at this point, but I think wave is a better term than peak when thinking about how this might look. You can't have a new peak without cases going down. You can have a new wave. 

[SKL]

So, please update me - the latest info is that asthma is or is not a co-morbidity that creates higher risk if a person gets Covid?  I've heard it both ways.  My sister who is an "essential worker" and can't mask due to asthma wants to know.  🙂

[The Governess]

This critique of the Bakersfield doctors’ video was shared by a friend that is an ER nurse. I was kind of clapping in my head as I read it:

http://blog.deonandan.com/wordpress/2020/04/covid19-lets-talk-about-the-bakersfield-duo.html?fbclid=IwAR15wu2Go9saqq1-rK5YcauoEO49HrC0gpsiAPMJ2tYsxaBswgudfAmQ1w0

[ElizabethB]

https://www.ft.com/content/fdf893d5-40a0-4645-87fb-471b0f5e7ad0

Germany postpones decision on reopening schools

From article, Danish Ro rose from .6 to .9 after opening schools.

@StellaM

Edited May 1, 2020 by ElizabethB

[Matryoshka]

11 minutes ago, ElizabethB said:

https://www.ft.com/content/fdf893d5-40a0-4645-87fb-471b0f5e7ad0

Germany postpones decision on reopening schools

From article, Danish Ro rose from .6 to .9 after opening schools.

@StellaM

So.... I guess that whole wishful-thinking where kids get infected, we admit, but somehow magically don't spread it is bunk?

[Pen]

5 hours ago, Happymomof1 said:

Yes, that I could say.  The dose made me very uncomfortable.

 

You could possibly just link to ElizabethB’s site as possibly of interest to them

[Acadie]

Thanks to comprehensive testing and contact tracing, "South Korea is the only country with upwards of 10,000 cases to report a day with zero new local infections since coronavirus permeated its borders." 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexandrasternlicht/2020/04/30/south-koreas-widespread-testing-and-contact-tracing-lead-to-first-day-with-no-new-cases/?fbclid=IwAR2J4PSeGmvcg63AFY9CuPIfYDK6ic1S98fwacbT6TygnSEPBTUwU6wfrY8#16a31cff5abf

[EmseB]

10 minutes ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

I had a discussion with someone about COVID precautions. I said that I did not trust someone who is into a lot of alternative medicine ideas to take the correct precautions against COVID. This person said that was judgmental. This person advocates for alternative cancer treatments and does not vaccinate. 

What do you guys think? 

ETA this person is a COVID truther. 

Do I think it's judgmental? Yes. Do I think there is anything wrong with being judgemental? No.

I make judgements all the time for my own safety and the safety of my kids.

[Acadie]

17 minutes ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

I said that I did not trust someone who is into a lot of alternative medicine ideas to take the correct precautions against COVID. 

 

I'm into both alternative medicine and conventional medicine--whatever makes sense to me and works for my family. 

I judge a person's COVID precautions by what I see of their COVID precautions. If they've expressed skepticism on germ theory or dismissed my health concerns in the past, I'd take that into account too. 

 

[ElizabethB]

For people wanting info from a more mainstream site, Daily Mail, "People with low levels of Vitamin D may be more likely to catch coronavirus and die from COVID-19 infection, study suggests" https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8277775/People-low-levels-Vitamin-D-likely-die-COVID-19-infection.html

[Pen]

55 minutes ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

I had a discussion with someone about COVID precautions. I said that I did not trust someone who is into a lot of alternative medicine ideas to take the correct precautions against COVID. This person said that was judgmental. This person advocates for alternative cancer treatments and does not vaccinate. 

What do you guys think? 

ETA this person is a COVID truther. 

 

What is a “Covid Truther”?

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, SKL said:

So, please update me - the latest info is that asthma is or is not a co-morbidity that creates higher risk if a person gets Covid?  I've heard it both ways.  My sister who is an "essential worker" and can't mask due to asthma wants to know.  🙂

Well that study from the uk from yesterday showed it was but it’s just an overview is patients to date not a randomised controlled study type thing. I agree the answer is still we don’t know.  It doesn’t appear to be as big a problem as high blood pressure or diabetes though.

[Ausmumof3]

5 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

What is a “Covid Truther”?

Someone who thinks it’s a political scam (mostly to make the president look bad or to ruin the US economy)

[EmseB]

40 minutes ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

I actually don't think it's judgmental. I define judgmental as rushing to judgment. I think this person defines it as thinking something bad about another person. 

I don't think judging is alway judgmental. 

 

Well, I think of judgemental as passing judgment, deliberately and carefully or rushed. I do it all the time, negatively and positively. Either way, we all have to make choices based on what other people tell us about themselves. Often those choices aren't neutral or don't feel neutral if you're on the receiving end of them. I don't think the semantics matter too much. Your choice to hang out with this person or not is a judgment call, but I think you can say that you think it's too risky for you but she is free to do as she feels the facts lead her and you will do the same.