wuhan - coronavirus

[Lanny]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Yes Australia is tanking right now.  That is partly because of Covid and partly because we’re picking a fight with China.  It will be interesting to see if we manage to keep cases low while opening up if that helps to bounce back faster or not.   Lack of Chinese students and tourism will hurt for sure.

<snip>

 

I read an article a few days ago about International students in Australia. It said they are the #3  export product in Australia. The #1 and #2 export products are from Mines and I don't remember what they are.

In the USA, there are probably many colleges and universities that have large numbers of International students. If they do not return for the Fall 2020 that will have a huge financial impact on those schools. At the moment, I believe the CDC regulations in the USA would not permit people from  China, Iran, or most European countries, to enter the USA, if they have been in those countries in the past 14 days.

[Arcadia]

@Ausmumof3Singapore domestic violence and mental health issues (two separate news articles)

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/coronavirus-rise-in-domestic-abuse-cases-as-families-forced-to-stay-home

“Minister for Social and Family Development Desmond Lee addressed this issue in Parliament on Monday (April 6) when he noted a trend in "higher rates of domestic violence, domestic quarrels and friction in the family" in countries that had imposed movement restrictions.

He said a national care hotline will be set up for callers to get support from psychologists, counsellors and others.

Family Violence Specialist Centres (FVSC) and Child Protection Specialist Centres will be "adequately resourced during this time" as they are essential services, Mr Lee added.

The Association of Women for Action and Research (Aware) said it received 619 inquiries last month, a 35 per cent jump from March last year.

Aware's head of research and advocacy Shailey Hingorani told TNP: "Crises, such as pandemics or economic recessions, have historically corresponded with a surge in domestic violence cases."

She said social workers told Aware last month that they had observed a rise in family violence cases.

One social worker said 60 per cent of her daily referrals were family violence-related, up from 30 per cent last year.

United Women Singapore president Georgette Tan said such cases may continue to rise as virus containment measures may inadvertently trigger domestic violence.

HARDER TO GET HELP

Nanyang Technological University's associate professor of psychology, Dr Andy Ho, noted that physical isolation also makes it harder for victims to get help.

He said: "Victims are now constantly in close physical proximity with their abusers. This exposes them to a higher likelihood of abuse.

"And they might not have the privacy and personal space to contact their support network for help even if they have one."

Stress arising from the Covid-19 crisis may also result in more abusive behaviour by perpetrators, said Ms Hingorani of Aware.

She added: "Abusers may seek a sense of control in their disrupted and uncertain lives, which may trigger them to lash out at those around them."

Ms Lam, whose centre is one of two FVSCs here, said she has seen a recurrence of violence in cases involving those who were previously on stay-home notices or quarantine orders.

Like NTU's Dr Ho, she feels that victims are now more isolated from their support networks. For example, school counsellors and teachers can no longer monitor how potential child abuse victims are doing now that they are not in school.

Work-from-home arrangements may also impact victims' level of empowerment as many find their identity through their jobs, and this could affect whether they seek help, said Ms Lam.

Stressing that physical isolation does not mean social isolation, Dr Ho said: "It is crucial for victims to have a contact point that checks in on them. Technology makes that possible, but only if they can have privacy or time alone."”

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/more-than-6600-calls-to-national-care-hotline-500-volunteers-have-stepped-up-so-far

“SINGAPORE - More than 6,600 calls have been made to the National Care Hotline since its launch just over two weeks ago on April 10, said Minister for Social and Family Development Desmond Lee in a Facebook post on Wednesday (April 29).

This means there have been about 380 calls a day, of which just above 40 per cent, or about 170 calls, are channelled to the hotline's trained professionals.

The other calls are diverted to other helplines for their specific needs.

...

Another 24-hour hotline, manned by the Samaritans of Singapore (SOS), has seen a large number of calls during this period.

In response to queries from The Straits Times, SOS said it received 3,826 calls last month, 23 per cent more than the 3,121 calls in March last year.

"While it may be difficult to fully attribute the increase in number of calls to the current Covid-19 pandemic, it is observed that more callers have expressed their anxieties, both for themselves and for their loved ones during this period," said SOS chief executive Gasper Tan.

He said the hotline has seen an increasing number of calls about the loss of job opportunities and income stability, while some have also been caught in conflicts between spouses or between parent and child.”

[Corraleno]

Worldometer has Sweden reporting 81 deaths yesterday and 107 today, for a current total of 2,462, or 244 per million.
(And according to Sweden's National Board of Health, the actual death toll is at least 10% higher than the official count, which excludes deaths that were not confirmed by tests even if CV19 was listed as cause of death. If those were included, the death rate would be at least 270 per million.)

Norway reported 1 death yesterday and 1 today, for a total of 207, or 38 per million.

Finland had very similar numbers: 6 & 7 new deaths, for a total of 206, or 37 per million.

Denmark added 7 & 9 deaths, for a total of 433, or 76 per million.

The difference between the CV19 response in Sweden and Denmark is not as large as people may think. Although bars and restaurants are open in Sweden, authorities are enforcing social distancing (they just closed 5 pubs in Stockholm for not practicing social distancing). High schools & colleges are closed, gatherings of more than 50 are banned, people are expected to work from home as much as possible, and nonessential travel is strongly discouraged. Denmark closed bars & restaurants, but many small businesses remained open; there was never any SIP order, and gatherings of up to 10 people have always been permitted. They have now reopened schools and some additional businesses. One of the big differences between them is the aggressiveness of testing & tracing: 31K per million in Denmark, 11K in Sweden.

Norway has been stricter, but many shops have remained open, although bars and restaurants are still closed, and sports and cultural events are still banned. Elementary schools are now open, with extra precautions, and people are now allowed to travel to their 2nd homes.They were also aggressive with testing & tracing (31K/million) and feel like they are now in a good position to contain further outbreaks. It's a bit harder to find info on Finland's restrictions, but the government is supposed to announce a plan for a gradual reopening next week.

 

Edited April 29, 2020 by Corraleno

[Arcadia]

@mathnerd@sassenach@kdsuomi

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/29/bolinas-study-finds-no-coronavirus-cases-in-townwide-testing-probe/

“Nobody in Bolinas tested positive for the coronavirus last week in a rare, privately funded study that aimed to test all of the town’s residents, according to Marin County public health officials.

“It’s a relief,” said Dr. Matt Willis, Marin County’s chief public health officer, who confirmed the results Tuesday.

Willis said the study highlighted the success of the stay-at-home order he issued last month in collaboration with other Bay Area health officers, which resulted in the closure of many West Marin parks and beaches and triggered a reduction in tourism and travel throughout the area.”

[sassenach]

10 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

@mathnerd@sassenach@kdsuomi

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/29/bolinas-study-finds-no-coronavirus-cases-in-townwide-testing-probe/

“Nobody in Bolinas tested positive for the coronavirus last week in a rare, privately funded study that aimed to test all of the town’s residents, according to Marin County public health officials.

“It’s a relief,” said Dr. Matt Willis, Marin County’s chief public health officer, who confirmed the results Tuesday.

Willis said the study highlighted the success of the stay-at-home order he issued last month in collaboration with other Bay Area health officers, which resulted in the closure of many West Marin parks and beaches and triggered a reduction in tourism and travel throughout the area.”

Dh is wondering what their plan is now. Blockade the town? 

[YaelAldrich]

18 hours ago, Pen said:

 

Sounds like they are saying soft quarantine leaves an exponential growth hockey stick shape graph.  Tight quarantine measures like for South Korea make it stop the steep exponential climb.

beyond that it sounds like they think they might be able to use physics and chaos theory to do future modeling

My husband is working with people in chaos theory and physics (he does social (human) capital to do this exact stuff right now.  Been working on other projects together and now they got some grants to do COVID-19 stuff.

[The Governess]

3 hours ago, square_25 said:

 

Well, at some point it stops doubling whatever you do, because you only have so many people!! With an IFR of about 0.5%, you wouldn't expect more than about 200 million*0.5% = 1 million deaths. Not that this is a good thing, lol, but you can't just keep doubling forever.

 

That’s true, although if our health care system was overwhelmed that IFR might look different... but really, my calculation was mostly just to see how much changes to the doubling rate can affect the final number.  Not that we would ever get there... I think if deaths continued to increase like that people would be hiding in their homes even without an order. And herd immunity would kick in at some point to slow it also. Anyway, it was spurred by curiosity more than anything else. 😁

[The Governess]

5 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

Oh, probably. The NY IFR is looking worse than that, frankly. But even at double that, it would have ended at 2 million. 

I shudder to think what "three times as many people infected all over as in NYC" would look like... I think you're right that people would be hiding well before that. 

 

That scenario makes me shudder too. 

[The Governess]

5 hours ago, square_25 said:

Have people posted this? DH just showed it to me: 

https://covid19-projections.com

It looks a lot less unfounded than the IHME models. It's also more depressing. 

 

This looks like a pretty good model. I’m bookmarking it! 

[Pen]

8 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

Oh, probably. The NY IFR is looking worse than that, frankly. But even at double that, it would have ended at 2 million. 

I shudder to think what "three times as many people infected all over as in NYC" would look like... I think you're right that people would be hiding well before that. 

 

I think for many/most people by time they are seeing dead from a pandemic close and personal enough to want to hide, it is pretty much too late...not necessarily too late for that individual, but too late for many in the area where death has become obvious. 

People need to learn to look at something while it is still “over there” and take proactive action. 

 

[The Governess]

Just now, square_25 said:

Someone needs to plot the evolution of bookmarks in the time of COVID-19, lol. I have SO MANY coronavirus bookmarks. 

And yeah, it's a better model. And it's currently predicting 150,000 US deaths WITH social distancing :-/. @Corraleno, I remember you've complained about the IHME models -- seen this one? 

 

I have so many tabs permanently open on my phone browser - it’s kind of embarrassing.

I saw that their death number was much higher... unfortunately it seems more accurate. I am tempted to take screenshots of several of these models so I can come back and compare their performance later; since they are constantly being updated that seems like the only way to tell which ones have the most accurate modeling.

 

[Matryoshka]

4 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I would basically abandon ship on IHME at this point. Their symmetry assumption is absolutely egregious given the actual known curves. 

One of the stupidest parts of the IHME model (maybe because of the symmetry assumption) is that after a certain date, it has Zero people ever dying of Covid for the foreseeable future.  So, in my state, after June 15th, zero deaths after that date!  Apparently as of that date, Covid just magically goes away, like certain politicians have suggested.  

[Pen]

20 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

Oh, absolutely. 

I'm a pretty aware person who's good with numbers, and I was emphatically too slow to pay attention. And I'm not prone to denial and was pretty early on self-quarantining compared to others I know... 

 

I know.  

Could your being earlier on self quarantine been partly because through this thread some west coast people started seeming more real even before your own area became as obviously in difficulties? 

Sort of like some west coasters may have been earlier because of connections with people in PRC?

I have this feeling that irl connections, or at least social media with people who get “known” well enough to have a sense of realness May have more impact than news media in some cases. 

 

[RootAnn]

27 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I would basically abandon ship on IHME at this point. Their symmetry assumption is absolutely egregious given the actual known curves. 

I haven't looked at the other modeling sites, but DH said the death curves look more like black body radiation (something to do with Planck's constant) curves than a Gaussian curve. 

I am befuddled why modelers would continue to use symmetrical models when the data obviously doesn't support it.

[Corraleno]

35 minutes ago, square_25 said:

And yeah, it's a better model. And it's currently predicting 150,000 US deaths WITH social distancing :-/. @Corraleno, I remember you've complained about the IHME models -- seen this one? 

That is a MUCH better model, with realistic-looking numbers. Their comparisons to the IHME model, and their discussion of all the flaws inherent in that model, are excellent. It's really horrifying that the administration has been so influenced by the IHME models — Trump seems genuinely convinced that CV19 is going to "go away" the summer and not come back, as the model shows. He has been so frustrated with Redfield's and Birx's refusal to back him up on that. I sure hope someone can make him look at this other model and explain to him why the IHME projections have always been totally flawed and unrealistic.

[Pen]

15 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

Nope. I came on this thread after I looked at the news reports and started isolating. Frankly, looking at the predicted IFRs and the contagiousness was plenty for me. 

I'm quite quick to adapt to new data, though. I know this wasn't actually new, but it was easy for me to go from "I haven't paid attention to this and I feel safe" to "whoa, I finally looked into this and I DO NOT feel safe." Most people are much less flexible. 

ETA: to be fair, I think the first place in the US to actually feel scary was, unfortunately, NYC. The thing I remember paying attention to before March was the contagiousness, which made me feel we'd all get it whatever happened. The thing I didn't do is pay enough attention to that deduction to realize what a disaster it'd be if we did. 

 

So you really are more a numbers and statistics person!

 

I think parts of west coast felt scary earlier than New York.  I think that is part of why NY had the actual problem it had.  

Seattle, and environs, for example.  

[Arcadia]

Costco https://www.costco.com/covid-updates.html

“Face Mask Requirements

To protect our members and employees, effective May 4, all Costco members and guests must wear a mask or face covering that covers the mouth and nose at all times while at Costco. This requirement does not apply to children under the age of 2 or to individuals who are unable to wear a mask or face covering due to a medical condition.

The use of a mask or face covering should not be seen as a substitute for social distancing. Please continue to observe rules regarding appropriate distancing while on Costco premises. Thank you for your understanding and cooperation.”

[Pen]

1 hour ago, square_25 said:

 

Oh, absolutely. 

I'm a pretty aware person who's good with numbers, and I was emphatically too slow to pay attention. And I'm not prone to denial and was pretty early on self-quarantining compared to others I know... 

 

What actual dates for NYC are “early” or late?

Around here I think it was late January, the days as and after Wuhan shut down, and when Seattle area and Wisconsin in USA, Melbourne in Australia, and somewhere in France had all reported cases that it started to seem very  “real”,  like a pandemic was starting. 

We now know that late January was itself already behind the 8-ball. 

[TracyP]

7 hours ago, square_25 said:

Have people posted this? DH just showed it to me: 

https://covid19-projections.com

It looks a lot less unfounded than the IHME models. It's also more depressing. 

Fwiw, this model is still much more optimistic than the in state modeling when it comes to my state. 

[TracyP]

2 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Oh, interesting. What does that say?

Well, it's modeling so I suppose it says nobody really knows, lol.

[Pen]

1 hour ago, Arcadia said:

Costco https://www.costco.com/covid-updates.html

“Face Mask Requirements

To protect our members and employees, effective May 4, all Costco members and guests must wear a mask or face covering that covers the mouth and nose at all times while at Costco. This requirement does not apply to children under the age of 2 or to individuals who are unable to wear a mask or face covering due to a medical condition.

The use of a mask or face covering should not be seen as a substitute for social distancing. Please continue to observe rules regarding appropriate distancing while on Costco premises. Thank you for your understanding and cooperation.”

 

That’s good.  Combining mask plus distance should help some, all else being equal.  

[TracyP]

3 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I mean, are the predictions available?

If you want to look they are available in pdf at the bottom of this page.

https://mn.gov/covid19/data/modeling/index.jsp

I'm pretty sure the one marked slides is the one I looked at. This new model doesn't look at ICU capacity, so I can't compare that. The model you linked predicts about a third as many deaths as the in state modeling. I take all of them with a giant dose of salt...

[Pen]

48 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I think people weren’t worried here until they found a case in March. It didn’t seem real. Like, I teach homeschooling classes, and there was no decline in attendance until the second week of March.

By the end of the week, no one was coming, including me.

As I’ve said, I think the fact that we didn’t know it was here made people blasé about the issues. It’s really tragic. And there’s blame to go around.

 

By late January/ Early February as I was trying to think through what my elder family people at long distance might need, many such things were already sold out. 

I agree that lack of knowledge was a problem. I recall a long time ago in this thread someone on east coast asking about travel to west coast. Whenever that was, I was thinking of airports, airplanes and the west coast destination as the likely danger, not thinking that it might already be worse yet on East coast wherever  the person was starting from. 

[Pen]

6 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

I didn't feel that worried about stocking up, so I guess I also missed that wave. There were probably people stocking up around here, but I didn't think that was super useful, anyway. (The density of grocery stores in NYC is very high.) 

What I'm thinking about is that density wasn't down at all, which of course is the rational response to the crisis. (Not that stocking up is irrational. It's just not useful as a public health measure, lol.) 

 

Things like hand sanitizer which I think could help very much in NYC were already gone.  (Or pretty much gone. )  Pulse Oximeters were still available but higher priced than before CV19 had started. 

I think quite a few people probably did leave NYC, but only a certain number have second homes to go to.  In the main areas with severe problems like Queens and Brooklyn people don’t tend to except for pockets like Brooklyn Heights. 

And leaving NYC and Boston etc, while “logical,” may have done more spreading to other New England states .

Edited April 29, 2020 by Pen

[Matryoshka]

22 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Things like hand sanitizer which I think could help very much in NYC were already gone.  (Or pretty much gone. )  Pulse Oximeters were still available but higher priced than before CV19 had started. 

I think quite a few people probably did leave NYC, but only a certain number have second homes to go to.  In the main areas with severe problems like Queens and Brooklyn people don’t tend to except for pockets like Brooklyn Heights. 

And leaving NYC and Boston etc, while “logical,” may have done more spreading to other New England states .

Especially at first, Boston wasn't actually where most MA cases were anyway.  Other than Chelsea, which is near to but not in Boston, even now per capita most cases are suburban.  The most recent per capita numbers I could easily find were from about a week ago, and Boston was #18 per capita, and nearby cities like Cambridge and Somerville didn't even make the top 25.

[Matryoshka]

1 minute ago, square_25 said:

I remember looking at Boston numbers when the NYC outbreak was starting and thinking about whether it made sense to decamp to Boston, where my in-laws live. (We'd obviously stay away from them at least until we were done quarantining, but the idea of not being somewhere as stressful appealed.)

I decided that seemed too cowardly, though. Also, that I didn't believe the IHME models. 

That's quite interesting that the cases are suburban... anyone know why that's happening? I noticed that on the county map, too. 

Not exactly sure why except that our original start point (at least for mass spreading) seems to have been the Biogen conference, and while the conference itself was in Boston proper, maybe the local attendees lived in the western 'burbs?  The highest concentration now seems to be in the working class towns on the North Shore and south of the city but a bit inland (Brockton seems hardest-hit down there) - places where many people have jobs that are 'essential' and can't be done from home.

Other places with high numbers seem to be mostly due to large nursing home outbreaks, like in Holyoke and Littleton.

I have no idea who's got it in my town, which I don't think has a significant number of cases the care facilities, but we still have over 40-something cases per 10K (so, well over 400 per 100K for comparison to how it's usually measured, but we have less than 25K people - actual numbers are a bit over 100 atm.  I have no idea about deaths, that seems to be missing from the info page).

[Melissa in Australia]

8 hours ago, Lanny said:

 

I read an article a few days ago about International students in Australia. It said they are the #3  export product in Australia. The #1 and #2 export products are from Mines and I don't remember what they are.

In the USA, there are probably many colleges and universities that have large numbers of International students. If they do not return for the Fall 2020 that will have a huge financial impact on those schools. At the moment, I believe the CDC regulations in the USA would not permit people from  China, Iran, or most European countries, to enter the USA, if they have been in those countries in the past 14 days.

Aus boarders  are completely closed. Only returning Aussies are allowed in. Then they have to spend 14 days locked in hotel rooms with police and army guarding the hotels

[Matryoshka]

34 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Actually, I'm looking right now, and Boston itself is worse off, per capita, than surrounding regions. Or am I misreading? 

The helpful map I found is, again, a weekish old, but I don't think the ratios have changed much.  So, a weekish ago, cases per 100K (remembering that many/most of these towns have less than 100K population, so the number per 100K is higher than the actual case number):

Boston - 970 

close North Shore towns:
Chelsea - 3841
Revere - 1246
Everett - 1475
Lynn - 1374

southern cluster:
Brockton - 1794
Stoughton - 1102
Randolph - 1405

Holyoke way out west was at 1150, but it's not a big town and something like 75 deaths there are from the Veteran's Home.

ETA: Were you looking at a map by county, rather than city?  Chelsea and Revere are in Suffolk County along with Boston (along with one other relatively tiny town), so that will skew Suffolk's numbers over, say, Middlesex which has twice the population as Suffolk but a lot more area and a huge number of towns, with numbers all over the place.
 

Edited April 29, 2020 by Matryoshka

[Arcadia]

https://www.todayonline.com/world/buildings-closed-coronavirus-face-another-risk-legionnaires-disease-0

“Buildings closed by coronavirus face another risk: Legionnaires’ disease 

WASHINGTON — Commercial buildings shuttered for weeks to stem the spread of the coronavirus could fuel another grisly lung infection: Legionnaires’ disease.

Public health experts are urging landlords across the globe to carefully re-open buildings to prevent outbreaks of the severe, sometimes lethal, form of pneumonia.

The sudden and sweeping closures of schools, factories, businesses and government offices have created an unprecedented decline in water use. The lack of chlorinated water flowing through pipes, combined with irregular temperature changes, have created conditions ripe for the bacteria that causes Legionnaires’ disease, they said.

If diagnosed early, Legionnaires’ disease poses less of a health risk than Covid-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus. Most cases can be successfully cured with antibiotics, and Legionnaires cannot be spread from human to human contact.

But as communities consider reopening, any commercial facility vacated or underutilized for more than three weeks is at risk for a Legionnaires’ outbreak, unless the water pipes are properly flushed and otherwise sanitized, health experts and government officials say.

“After surviving Covid-19, who wants to open a building and have another set of significant safety issues?” said Ms Molly Scanlon, an Arizona environmental health scientist who is leading a coronavirus task force for the American Institute of Architects. “Our medical system is already under enough stress as it is.””

[Arcadia]

@mathnerd@sassenachhttps://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/04/29/coronvirus-update-surgical-masks-thrown-onto-southbound-i-880-near-whipple-tie-up-traffic/

“UNION CITY (CBS SF) — Hundreds of surgical masks that were apparently thrown from the back of a truck onto southbound lanes of I-880 in Union City caused a traffic jam Wednesday afternoon as some drivers stopped to gather the masks, according to authorities.

The incident was first reported by CHP at approximately 1:40 p.m. when authorities received calls about a white truck stopped on the freeway. A white or Hispanic male on the bed of the truck reportedly threw multiple boxes of masks onto the freeway into lanes of southbound 880 near the Whipple Avenue exit.

The masks were described as thin medical masks, according to CHP. There were approximately 1,000 that ended up on the roadway.

CHP said that some drivers were stopping their vehicles and trying to collect the masks, which have become a desired commodity during the coronavirus pandemic.

At one point, two CHP vehicles stopped traffic so a Caltrans sweeper could pick up the masks that had collecteded on the shoulder of the freeway.

While the masks strewn across the southbound lanes of the freeway would not damage vehicles, authorities were concerned they might be a distraction and that more people could try to stop and gather the masks.”

 

 

[TCB]

Let me ask you this. Hope someone can explain it to me.

I can understand a distrust, or being skeptical  of the experts and maybe having a hard time believing what they say, but why is it that someone can completely disbelieve an expert in the field, but then find some random person on the internet, who they know nothing about, who has made a video about a subject, and believe every word they say and post it as gospel truth on social media. I'm absolutely baffled by this!

[Ausmumof3]

44 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

https://www.todayonline.com/world/buildings-closed-coronavirus-face-another-risk-legionnaires-disease-0

“Buildings closed by coronavirus face another risk: Legionnaires’ disease 

WASHINGTON — Commercial buildings shuttered for weeks to stem the spread of the coronavirus could fuel another grisly lung infection: Legionnaires’ disease.

Public health experts are urging landlords across the globe to carefully re-open buildings to prevent outbreaks of the severe, sometimes lethal, form of pneumonia.

The sudden and sweeping closures of schools, factories, businesses and government offices have created an unprecedented decline in water use. The lack of chlorinated water flowing through pipes, combined with irregular temperature changes, have created conditions ripe for the bacteria that causes Legionnaires’ disease, they said.

If diagnosed early, Legionnaires’ disease poses less of a health risk than Covid-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus. Most cases can be successfully cured with antibiotics, and Legionnaires cannot be spread from human to human contact.

But as communities consider reopening, any commercial facility vacated or underutilized for more than three weeks is at risk for a Legionnaires’ outbreak, unless the water pipes are properly flushed and otherwise sanitized, health experts and government officials say.

“After surviving Covid-19, who wants to open a building and have another set of significant safety issues?” said Ms Molly Scanlon, an Arizona environmental health scientist who is leading a coronavirus task force for the American Institute of Architects. “Our medical system is already under enough stress as it is.””

Hmm I saw a think on the global times with a picture of thousands of quilts out to air.  Apparently students could sign up to a quilt airing service before found back to their dorms.  I’m not sure how much that would achieve but maybe they are having similar problems with shut up buildings.

 

[ElizabethB]

2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Hmm I saw a think on the global times with a picture of thousands of quilts out to air.  Apparently students could sign up to a quilt airing service before found back to their dorms.  I’m not sure how much that would achieve but maybe they are having similar problems with shut up buildings.

 

The Germans hang their quilts out their windows weekly, they thought we were crazy not to.  They did use our larger sized American washer and dryer to wash them a few times, though, they don't fit in smaller European washers and dryers. (Issued American sized washer and dryer modified to run with European power standards.) They also occasionally stored things in our larger fridge when having a party--and always invited us unless it was a business party.

[Arcadia]

4 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Hmm I saw a think on the global times with a picture of thousands of quilts out to air.  Apparently students could sign up to a quilt airing service before found back to their dorms.  I’m not sure how much that would achieve but maybe they are having similar problems with shut up buildings.

Think it was common to sun the mattresses and beddings before moving into dorms.  As well as opening all the dorm windows and doors to air the rooms. 

[hopeallgoeswell]

5 hours ago, square_25 said:

I'm watching the Worldometer numbers... looks like some of the state outbreaks are close to over, but some others are just starting up, albeit slowly, due to social distancing orders :-/. Overall, I think it's going to be frustratingly hard to get US numbers down, because the US is so sprawling and so disjointed and currently isn't particularly coordinated. 

Might slightly higher numbers that don't overwhelm the hospitals help with achieving herd immunity faster? I am just wondering about the places that have had stringent lockdowns. What happens when cases get low, people are allowed to go out, there is a spike, restrictions are tightened back up...lather, rinse, repeat...until ?????  As opposed to somewhere else, like Sweden who has had few restrictions and looks like they will have 50% immunity sooner rather than later?

[Ausmumof3]

7 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

Think it was common to sun the mattresses and beddings before moving into dorms.  As well as opening all the dorm windows and doors to air the rooms. 

That was what I would have thought but global times (for what that’s worth) said it was a service you have to request online.  Free but you had to sign up.  Because yeah typically we would open up and air accommodation and give it a clean here in Aus.

[matrips]

21 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

does this mean meat companies will be immune to lawsuits if employees get sick?

Not in regards to the meat issue, but it reminded me of another reason many companies moved overseas- lawsuit-happy Americans.  I would love to see more jobs come back to America, but some people/lawyers see companies as nothing but a source of money to sue for every slip or fall or slight. 

Regarding the meat factory- unless the employees are living there, I don’t see how a company could be responsible for someone getting sick.  There are too many other ways since employees are out and about in the community.  They will need to put safety precautions in place and rules, but then you need people to actually follow them.  Look at the folks still having large parties and get-togethers; some just don’t toe the line and then don’t accept responsibility either.

[Ausmumof3]

4 minutes ago, matrips said:

Not in regards to the meat issue, but it reminded me of another reason many companies moved overseas- lawsuit-happy Americans.  I would love to see more jobs come back to America, but some people/lawyers see companies as nothing but a source of money to sue for every slip or fall or slight. 

Regarding the meat factory- unless the employees are living there, I don’t see how a company could be responsible for someone getting sick.  There are too many other ways since employees are out and about in the community.  They will need to put safety precautions in place and rules, but then you need people to actually follow them.  Look at the folks still having large parties and get-togethers; some just don’t toe the line and then don’t accept responsibility either.

I imagine if there is much higher rate of transmission through the employees versus the general population that would be an indicator.  It may be linked to socialisation after work but given the length of day many work plus the lock down measures I wouldn’t think so.

and then you have to look at company policies and implementation around sick workers.

[TCB]

Have you seen this? What do you think?

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

 

[Corraleno]

42 minutes ago, TCB said:

Have you seen this? What do you think?

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

 

I read something similar a few days ago, which noted that the numbers that get reported as "flu deaths" are actually estimates based on death certificates that code for "P&I," i.e.,  pneumonia and influenza, and very few of those are test-confirmed. Many many of those deaths are actually pneumonia, and the CDC acknowledged that the increase in pneumonia deaths being recorded as "P&I" at the beginning of this year were probably actually attributable to Covid-19 rather than influenza. 

The people who still insist that "it's no worse than the flu" (and certain media outlets are still pushing that claim hard) are using "P&I" estimates that are massively higher than actual test-confirmed flu deaths, while simultaneously arguing that only test-confirmed Covid-19 deaths should "count" — and that even a significant percentage of test-confirmed Covid deaths should be excluded because anyone with underlying conditions died "with" the disease not "of" it. It's actually the "flu death" number that's vastly inflated by doctor's best guesses of what someone died of, multiplied by some factors CDC comes up with. The reported CV19 death numbers are almost certainly being undercounted, now that we're realizing this disease can also cause strokes and heart attacks and other things (like Kawasaki in children).

Edited April 30, 2020 by Corraleno

[Jaybee]

I don't think I have seen this (response to the 2 urgent care docs) here--some language but more balanced than most things I've seen:  https://zdoggmd.com/covid-politics/

Nor this (which is a link that was on the above site):  https://www.acep.org/corona/COVID-19/covid-19-articles/acep-aaem-joint-statement-on-physician-misinformation/

[JadeOrchidSong]

Has anyone seen this news? A dog in North Carolina tested positive. 

 

[Ausmumof3]

Global Times: #China is expected to see a total of 117 million trips during the upcoming May Day holiday, with more than 23.36 million trips each day, roughly 35% of last year's total: Ministry of Transport 
 

[Ausmumof3]

18 minutes ago, JadeOrchidSong said:

Has anyone seen this news? A dog in North Carolina tested positive. 

 

Was that the pug or another dog?

[ElizabethB]

New study, New Orleans

"Vitamin D Insufficiency is Prevalent in Severe COVID-19"

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20075838v1

I would make a graph but their data is kind of confusing, and low patient numbers.

 

[Pen]

5 hours ago, Matryoshka said:

Especially at first, Boston wasn't actually where most MA cases were anyway.  Other than Chelsea, which is near to but not in Boston, even now per capita most cases are suburban.  The most recent per capita numbers I could easily find were from about a week ago, and Boston was #18 per capita, and nearby cities like Cambridge and Somerville didn't even make the top 25.

 

Neither Boston nor Manhattan nor San Francisco are or were as hot spots  as some surroundings, but they are / were places where people tended to depart from to other places that had had zero cases.  Beach or mountain getaways, and even larger suburban houses rather than a pied a terre.  All it takes is one spreader. 

[Pen]

19 minutes ago, ElizabethB said:

New study, New Orleans

"Vitamin D Insufficiency is Prevalent in Severe COVID-19"

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20075838v1

I would make a graph but their data is kind of confusing, and low patient numbers.

 

 

Thanks that’s another good one. 

Assuming this is a true underlying risk factor, perhaps a common one lying beneath some of the others (causative factor) then, whether USA or India(or elsewhere but I’ve seen in news both USA and India trying to get homeless housed), taking homeless off streets and putting them indoors in shelters or motels or whatever may not be a kindness, but exactly the wrong thing to do.  Though it looks cruel, a parking lot or a park with spots marked off with 10 feet or so minimum separated between people out in as much sunshine as possible whenever there is sunshine (with protection from rain, snow, too much sun etc,, as well as human dangers) may be much better. 

 

I wish they had more testing of Vitamin D levels.  I’d particularly like to know for some of the people who have had major problems without seeming to have significant risk factors—like the actor whose leg was amputated and other who are getting clots and strokes at relatively young ages and other younger persons who seem not to have risk factors that would tend to have low D level along with the other risks. 

 

Edited April 30, 2020 by Pen

[ElizabethB]

35 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Thanks that’s another good one. 

Assuming this is a true underlying risk factor, perhaps a common one lying beneath some of the others (causative factor) then, whether USA or India(or elsewhere but I’ve seen in news both USA and India trying to get homeless housed), taking homeless off streets and putting them indoors in shelters or motels or whatever may not be a kindness, but exactly the wrong thing to do.  Though it looks cruel, a parking lot or a park with spots marked off with 10 feet or so minimum separated between people out in as much sunshine as possible whenever there is sunshine (with protection from rain, snow, too much sun etc,, as well as human dangers) may be much better. 

 

I wish they had more testing of Vitamin D levels.  I’d particularly like to know for some of the people who have had major problems without seeming to have significant risk factors—like the actor whose leg was amputated and other who are getting clots and strokes at relatively young ages and other younger persons who seem not to have risk factors that would tend to have low D level along with the other risks. 

 

I agree with the top point, and the 2nd paragraph, we need to let everyone know and have people tell friends and family, their politicians and their doctors and recommend more tracking and treating of vitamin D levels; healthy anyway, could make a huge difference. 

Edited April 30, 2020 by ElizabethB

[Jean in Newcastle]

News out of Russia is scary. None of my links work but perhaps someone can link something for me. (The article I read was from Politico). Gist of it is hospitals close to overrun and numbers still rising. Nurses are quitting due to lack of PPE. Ambulances are waiting in line sometimes over ten hours with patients. 

[Ausmumof3]

10 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

News out of Russia is scary. None of my links work but perhaps someone can link something for me. (The article I read was from Politico). Gist of it is hospitals close to overrun and numbers still rising. Nurses are quitting due to lack of PPE. Ambulances are waiting in line sometimes over ten hours with patients. 

I don’t think there reported numbers are accurate but they might be like China where the trends are accurate and they’ve been increasing every day.  Officially around 5000 cases today.  They may only be capturing the bad ones although supposedly they have done millions of tests.  China reported a lot of imported cases from Russia and again we don’t know how accurate that is but We’ve seen with everyone else once they start exporting cases things are normally getting bad.