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6 hours ago, Arcadia said:

 

An analysis of more than one million Medicare cases by George Washington University shows just how important elective surgeries are to hospital revenue.  For each patient receiving an elective surgery, the hospital receives an average of 700 dollars more than for a patient admitted through the emergency department.  Sutter Health tax filings for 2019 show the hospital group made 11.4 billion dollars in patient revenue in 2019.  Treating patients for coronavirus typically does not require surgery, so hospitals could lose billions of dollars during the outbreak.”

Once again, I am NOT saying open up.  I am mourning what will become of the hospitals and docs.  They are going to die (literally).  Their practices will die.  Hospitals will die.  I know this is what we have to do for a year or more...  Because as long as hot spots are creeping up all over the nation, which is what is going to happen.  NYC will finally get back to normal and San Antonio will flare up.  So hospitals will need to stay somewhat ready.  It might come back to NYC.  So how in the world will you be able to do elective cases for the next 2 years? I don't know.  I don't see an answer and it really scares me.

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DS got home 3 hours ago!  ❤️❤️

Update-  my youngest is not only short of breath, coughing, dizzy, nausaues, and with headache-  she is also confused.  I called our doctor and talked with him and she is going to be going to the ER.

That's not a blanket right.  If my religion required human sacrifice, I can't practice it.  If my religion required sexual assault, I can't practice it. Freedom of religion isn't a blanket right

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43 minutes ago, Happymomof1 said:

Once again, I am NOT saying open up.  I am mourning what will become of the hospitals and docs.  They are going to die (literally).  Their practices will die.  Hospitals will die.  I know this is what we have to do for a year or more...  Because as long as hot spots are creeping up all over the nation, which is what is going to happen.  NYC will finally get back to normal and San Antonio will flare up.  So hospitals will need to stay somewhat ready.  It might come back to NYC.  So how in the world will you be able to do elective cases for the next 2 years? I don't know.  I don't see an answer and it really scares me.

I do not have high hopes for herd immunity. The cost to get to that level of immunity seems too high unless we learn that you get immunity for several years. That is not looking likely.

I do not have high hopes for a vaccine. Maybe at some point, but I think we are looking at 2-4 years at a minimum. 

I do, however, have high hopes for a treatment. We are only *weeks* into this and new info is flooding in. Cloroquine might show some promise, but a doc I heard the other day said that is only one of 6 drugs that are being tried. The world has never had this kind of motivation to find a treatment and I absolutely believe we will. That, to me, is our way out of this and I think we will know so much more in just a few months.

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10 hours ago, lewelma said:

So, yes continued lockdown, that is my fear. I just can't see people agreeing to stay locked down for 6 months or a year or some such until mass production of a vaccine. Plus, obviously the economic impact is unthinkable, even with confirmed immune people out working as I assume that will be only a fraction of the population like 30%.   But I'm not sure you can do decent contact tracing in a city the size of NYC -- life there is just full of crowds.  

NZ is looking at Singapore's app for tracking all people you come within 2m each day. Sounds like we will be asked to voluntarily download it and only release the data if we are tested positive, or if one of our contacts is positive.  Still sounds overwhelming in a crowded large city. 

I personally wouldn’t trust them to not release the data or for it not to be hacked.  Maybe it would go over fine in NZ, but I would envision a huge uproar over tracking people’s every movement.  Also, I envision issues with creating divides in society with a registry because you have a pass to work and someone else doesn’t.  All that seems likely to do is cause people to intentionally get themselves infected so they can get to work to be able to feed their families.  I think in the USA at least, we need to start learning to live with the disease.  Allow companies to get some workers in to allow others to work from home more than they were.  If my husband could get into work for a couple of hours to change over some testing, twenty people in his group could work from home for two weeks, but our governor has deemed it nonessential so no one can enter the building.  The transition won’t be pretty and will require some creative solutions and it won’t be where we were for awhile, but what we are doing right now is not sustainable.  The “slow the spread”, or “flatten the curve” stay at home orders in my mind were to give hospitals time to prepare and get the needed equipment, not lock us in our homes or crush our civil liberties until no one was going to die of Coronavirus.  Believe me, even if we do people both of those people will start dying in undeniable numbers from Coronavirus that have nothing to do with actual infection if we don’t come up with a plan soon.  Covid 19 might not be on their death certificate, but it will be a direct consequence.  Maybe China can do the extended lockdown - people are conditioned to know they will disappear if they don’t behave, Singapore seems conditioned enough to comply as well, but I get the sense here in the Midwest we are nearing the end of people’s willingness to simply comply with emergency orders without making a fuss.  

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7 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I wonder if it’s due to concern for what happens if someone does contract it mid cancer treatment. 

I have a friend whose father-in-law died from Covid and got it by going in for cancer treatments.  It was the only place he had been out of the house. He was from New Orleans.

Edited by Happymomof1
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17 minutes ago, Mom2mthj said:

I personally wouldn’t trust them to not release the data or for it not to be hacked.  Maybe it would go over fine in NZ, but I would envision a huge uproar over tracking people’s every movement.  Also, I envision issues with creating divides in society with a registry because you have a pass to work and someone else doesn’t.  All that seems likely to do is cause people to intentionally get themselves infected so they can get to work to be able to feed their families.  I think in the USA at least, we need to start learning to live with the disease.  Allow companies to get some workers in to allow others to work from home more than they were.  If my husband could get into work for a couple of hours to change over some testing, twenty people in his group could work from home for two weeks, but our governor has deemed it nonessential so no one can enter the building.  The transition won’t be pretty and will require some creative solutions and it won’t be where we were for awhile, but what we are doing right now is not sustainable.  The “slow the spread”, or “flatten the curve” stay at home orders in my mind were to give hospitals time to prepare and get the needed equipment, not lock us in our homes or crush our civil liberties until no one was going to die of Coronavirus.  Believe me, even if we do people both of those people will start dying in undeniable numbers from Coronavirus that have nothing to do with actual infection if we don’t come up with a plan soon.  Covid 19 might not be on their death certificate, but it will be a direct consequence.  Maybe China can do the extended lockdown - people are conditioned to know they will disappear if they don’t behave, Singapore seems conditioned enough to comply as well, but I get the sense here in the Midwest we are nearing the end of people’s willingness to simply comply with emergency orders without making a fuss.  

I hadn’t thought of that but that’s almost certainly a risk with giving people and out once they have antibodies.

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2 hours ago, Happymomof1 said:

I know.  I hate this virus.  I see absolutely no way out of this for years.  Who knows what life will look like by then.  My poor college senior and graduate school kid...  It all looks so incredibly hopeless.

I don’t think it’s that hopeless.  Testing shows that people develop antibodies we just don’t know how long they last.  We know some people have a higher Immune response than others.  Figuring out why will help with developing a vaccine:  there are companies all over the world working on getting a vaccine.  Yes there are some concerns about reinfection but it’s occurred in 50 cases or so out of the first 80,000.  It’s most likely something odd or specific to those individual people’s immune systems.  We may not get long lasting immunity but even if we can get 12 months it’s no worse than a flu shot.  

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1 hour ago, TracyP said:

I do, however, have high hopes for a treatment. We are only *weeks* into this and new info is flooding in. Cloroquine might show some promise, but a doc I heard the other day said that is only one of 6 drugs that are being tried. The world has never had this kind of motivation to find a treatment and I absolutely believe we will. That, to me, is our way out of this and I think we will know so much more in just a few months.

 

I'm also hopeful that new treatments + extensive testing will allow us to identify and treat new cases as they pop up, to prevent people from moving into the advanced stages of the illness. There are so many people working on this, from different angles. Something is going to make a difference. Not necessarily a miracle cure, but something that combined with continuing public health efforts like massive testing campaigns will change for the better how we live with this for the next year or two.

I do have some hope for a vaccine, but I think it's a long way off, and that before that we'll find other ways to move stepwise to a somewhat more sustainable place. 

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I find it discouraging that our hopes are all pinned on a vaccine, but they’ve never succeeded in a vaccine for a Corona virus before.  Lots of time and money will be poured into developing one yes, but not everything can be vaccinated against.  Completely different, but the same principle, we don’t have an HIV vaccine yet and time and money have been poured into that for 40 years. 

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I assumed by cancer patients they meant those who had had masectomies and needed implants. Not everyone gets those at the same time, unfortunately.

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Would someone repost the post and link that talked about covid targeting the red blood cells?  It was within the past week.  I want to send to a medical researcher friend in NY to ask her about it.

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1 hour ago, Happymomof1 said:

I have a friend whose father-in-law died from Covid and got it by going in for cancer treatments.  It was the only place he had been out of the house. He was from New Orleans.

DH's cancer treatment has been suspended for awhile, until we see how this plays out. Even though he's stage IV his cancer has been relatively indolent. His oncologist was more concerned about his increased risk of contracting Covid 19 from coming into the infusion center or possibly developing a side effect from treatment that would require hospitalization, than he is about the cancer at the moment. As far as anxiety for those who are newly diagnosed or seeking to get diagosed--I feel tremendous sympathy. I remember those days well. It's easier to deal with treatment delays when you've been dealing with it for awhile and cancer has become a part of your normal landscape. But two things really convinced me what a truly big deal the Covid 19 risk is--the first was when the big tech companies in Silicon Valley issued mandatory work from home orders. I assumed they had access to top notch health experts and weren't making their decisions lightly. The second was when DH's oncologist recommended taking a treatment break.

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On 4/6/2020 at 10:21 PM, EmseB said:

I am not against people using supplements where the amount of said supplement is clearly labeled on the packaging. 2x is not just another unit of measurement that I don't understand and is not equivalent to 13mg in all cases. If the package says 13mg, that is something entirely different. If I have to figure out how much (if any) zinc is actually in the thing by getting it tested in a lab, no thanks.

Again, homeopathy is a specific thing. Homeopathy promises that like cures like and diluting a substance precisely so that it is undetectable in a solution makes said substance more potent. If we're talking about taking 13mg of zinc per day, that is not homeopathy.

You are completely right.  It is not homeopathy.  But I have noticed a trend in the last few years-  a number of supplement companies are using "homeopathy" labels when there produicts are not homeopathic at all.  Nor is there any reason for the homeopathy because these are not dangerous supplements or poisons but actually herbs or minerals that are useful.

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7 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://news.trust.org/item/20200409114121-6tjeh
267 cases in Singapore.  Appears to be related to a cluster in migrant worker accommodation.

That was a day ago. Clusters in many foreign worker dormitories.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/covid-19-new-clusters-ica-nuh-dormitory-death-coronavirus-12630852

“SINGAPORE: Singapore reported another death linked to COVID-19 and 198 new cases on Friday (Apr 10), taking the total number of cases to 2,108..

... In total, seven people have passed away from complications due to COVID-19 infection.”

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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I don’t think it’s that hopeless.  Testing shows that people develop antibodies we just don’t know how long they last.  We know some people have a higher Immune response than others.  Figuring out why will help with developing a vaccine:  there are companies all over the world working on getting a vaccine.  Yes there are some concerns about reinfection but it’s occurred in 50 cases or so out of the first 80,000.  It’s most likely something odd or specific to those individual people’s immune systems.  We may not get long lasting immunity but even if we can get 12 months it’s no worse than a flu shot.  

Good point - there are some people who for whatever reason don't develop long-lasting immunity to things.  People who have had chickenpox multiple times for instance.  If the number of cases is very low, that is not a reason to doubt the general concept of acquired immunity.

This is another case where partial / sensational reporting can do damage.  If they are going to report re-infection cases, then shouldn't they also, at the same time, report that this is very rare afatk?  You can see people despairing or getting depressed over the partial info.

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16 minutes ago, matrips said:

Would someone repost the post and link that talked about covid targeting the red blood cells?  It was within the past week.  I want to send to a medical researcher friend in NY to ask her about it.

@TCB posted a summary. (ETA: around Tuesday)
I posted the link to the paper

https://chemrxiv.org/articles/COVID-19_Disease_ORF8_and_Surface_Glycoprotein_Inhibit_Heme_Metabolism_by_Binding_to_Porphyrin/11938173
“COVID-19: Attacks the 1-Beta Chain of Hemoglobin and Captures the Porphyrin to Inhibit Human Heme Metabolism”

ETA:

The twitter feed summarizing https://mobile.twitter.com/davidasinclair/status/1238972082756648960

Edited by Arcadia
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16 minutes ago, matrips said:

Would someone repost the post and link that talked about covid targeting the red blood cells?  It was within the past week.  I want to send to a medical researcher friend in NY to ask her about it.

https://chemrxiv.org/articles/COVID-19_Disease_ORF8_and_Surface_Glycoprotein_Inhibit_Heme_Metabolism_by_Binding_to_Porphyrin/11938173
 

https://mobile.twitter.com/davidasinclair/status/1238972089614438401

 

I think there was another more recent one someone else might know?

 

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2 hours ago, Mom2mthj said:

I personally wouldn’t trust them to not release the data or for it not to be hacked.  Maybe it would go over fine in NZ, but I would envision a huge uproar over tracking people’s every movement.  Also, I envision issues with creating divides in society with a registry because you have a pass to work and someone else doesn’t.  All that seems likely to do is cause people to intentionally get themselves infected so they can get to work to be able to feed their families.  I think in the USA at least, we need to start learning to live with the disease.  Allow companies to get some workers in to allow others to work from home more than they were.  If my husband could get into work for a couple of hours to change over some testing, twenty people in his group could work from home for two weeks, but our governor has deemed it nonessential so no one can enter the building.  The transition won’t be pretty and will require some creative solutions and it won’t be where we were for awhile, but what we are doing right now is not sustainable.  The “slow the spread”, or “flatten the curve” stay at home orders in my mind were to give hospitals time to prepare and get the needed equipment, not lock us in our homes or crush our civil liberties until no one was going to die of Coronavirus.  Believe me, even if we do people both of those people will start dying in undeniable numbers from Coronavirus that have nothing to do with actual infection if we don’t come up with a plan soon.  Covid 19 might not be on their death certificate, but it will be a direct consequence.  Maybe China can do the extended lockdown - people are conditioned to know they will disappear if they don’t behave, Singapore seems conditioned enough to comply as well, but I get the sense here in the Midwest we are nearing the end of people’s willingness to simply comply with emergency orders without making a fuss.  

 

I think that it might help for more people to understand the importance of the Physical Distancing and to take that on personally rather than to have to rely on orders.

Afaik orders came (at least in far West) because many of us were Distancing a lot, even isolating, but a reckless group were jeopardizing everyone’s health by congregating in bars and beaches for spring break or similar behaviors. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Thanks.  Do you know what page or what day that discussion was on?  

 

There was another post as well that mentioned some of the genetics involved.  I want to go back and reread the posts.

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On 4/7/2020 at 7:27 PM, EmseB said:

The dude flew halfway around the world to lecture a bunch of sick sailors about doing their duty while calling their former CO whom he fired naive or stupid for letting his letter leak to the media while speaking on the shipwide PA. Gotta at least admire his chutzpah were it not for his lack of self awareness.

I have also noticed that the navy is mighty quiet about who approved or insisted on that port call in Vietnam.

Yes, my dh, who is a retired USAF officer, thought it was really ironic that the Sec of Navy was brought down by the same thing (leaked video vs leaked email) that he fired  Crozier for and called him naive and stupid.

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San Jose, California https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/coronavirus/south-bay-church-taking-easter-service-to-a-drive-in-movie-theater/2270763/

“Amid the coronavirus pandemic, one South Bay church is still planning to hold massive Easter services thanks to a drive-in movie theater.

Southridge Church of San Jose is slated to take over Capitol Drive-In to hold services at 9 a.m, 10:15 a.m., 11:30 a.m. and 12:30 p.m.

The church purchased an FM transmitter so attendees will be able to listen to Easter service from their cars — an act that's in line with social distancing requirements. People interested in attending do need to register in advance.

... The church will have a pop-up pantry and plans to give out 60,000 Easter eggs to children. It’s also offering up to 1,000 fabric masks for people who need them.”

Edited by Arcadia
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On 4/8/2020 at 3:49 AM, TCB said:

I saw something interesting on a healthcare FB Covid site - no source, couldn’t get the link to open also so am just going to copy and paste.

Below is a quote - not written by me!

 

 

“A friend sent this to me and it makes SO MUCH SENSE!!  Hypothesizing that covid-19 is a primary hematologic infection rather than respiratory.  This is an analysis done on a computer to study the virus.  A lengthy read but it is what we are seeing in these patients.

"Might not even be a respiratory illness after all and that's just a byproduct of the wreckage it makes in blood haemoglobin (thus making ARDS a symptom not a cause).

I wish this would get more traction because if this computational analysis is correct, this could completely change the way we approach COVID, globally.

I will copy some summaries that explain this paper in layman's terms:

- Using computational analysis (modeling the behavior of a molecule in a computer), they've worked out the probable mechanism by which SARS-nCov-2 wreaks havoc on patients, as well as why chloroquine and favipiravir seem to work.

- Inside our red blood cells, there is a molecule called hemoglobin, which contains heme groups. Each heme group is a molecular "ring" (called a porphyrin) that can hold an iron (Fe) ion inside. Having an iron ion inside is what allows this heme to carry O2 (and CO2) in our blood. This is how our bodies move O2 to our tissues and remove CO2 waste products.

- The paper modeled these and found that the proteins produced when COVID replicates "collaborate" to knock iron ions out of heme groups (HBB) and replace them with one of the proteins. This makes the red blood cell unable to transport O2 and CO2!

- If the computer modeling is right, it shows that the virus hijacks our [red] blood [cells] and makes it unable to carry O2 to a patient's tissues/organs, and likewise unable to carry CO2 out of them. This would lead to organ and tissue death, roughly in the same way as if a patient were being suffocated. Even when a patient can breath (fill lungs with air), the oxygen isn't getting to the cells in their body.

- The inflammation in the lungs results from the lungs not being able to perform the oxygen/CO2 exchange, and would therefore appear to be a SECONDARY result of the hijacking of the blood. The lungs not working is a result of lack of O2 in blood, not the cause of it. Hence the "ground glass opacities".

- The paper models the behavior of chloroquine and faviparavir as well, which appear to bind to the non-structural viral proteins that hijack the heme groups, thus inhibiting them from knocking out the iron and wrecking the O2-carrying ability of the red blood cells.

- This also explains the observation made by various ER docs (incl this one in New Orleans) that patients tend to have elevated ferritin: ferritin is used to store excess iron. If a lot of iron is knocked out of heme groups and floating around, the body produces more ferritin

If true, this may mean a few things:

1. Starting drug treatment while symptoms are mild keeps virus from hijacking too much blood, enabling a still-healthy body to mount an immune response. Explains why early drug treatment (first week of symptoms) is often successful.

2. Drug treatment and intubation once patient is critical will rarely work because tissues/organs are already damaged, blood can't carry O2, and the body is too weak to produce new red blood cells able to carry Fe (and thus oxygen/CO2) even if drugs inhibit more hijacking.

3. Thus: start severe patients on drug treatment upon hospital intake to suppress further hijacking of blood by the virus, then give them a blood transfusion of new red blood cells immediately that are unhijacked. If all this is true, we would see rapid patient improvement.

---

The problem is we have not yet had studies testing whether patients will respond well to blood transfusions from people who have not had COVID-19. Right now medical attention is focused on blood transfusions from those who have beat COVID and have antibodies. This needs to be looked at

This research ties in to the fact that weight/age/high blood pressure are such risk factor and why certain blood types are less afflicted than other

NonAfrican malaria risk zones have a population with genetic thalassemia, which would explain the discrepancies in the population affected by CV, this is noted in Italy:" “

Quoting to bring this to the top of the thread 

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7 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

San Jose, California https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/coronavirus/south-bay-church-taking-easter-service-to-a-drive-in-movie-theater/2270763/

“Amid the coronavirus pandemic, one South Bay church is still planning to hold massive Easter services thanks to a drive-in movie theater.

Southridge Church of San Jose is slated to take over Capitol Drive-In to hold services at 9 a.m, 10:15 a.m., 11:30 a.m. and 12:30 p.m.

The church purchased an FM transmitter so attendees will be able to listen to Easter service from their cars — an act that's in line with social distancing requirements. People interested in attending do need to register in advance.

... The church will have a pop-up pantry and plans to give out 60,000 Easter eggs to children. It’s also offering up to 1,000 fabric masks for people who need them.”

We are actually planning to do this at our church in a couple of weeks.  We are small and have just one service.  They have police ready to direct people to parking spaces.  The pop up pantry is a really good idea  I may have to pass on, and we have sewing ladies that could do masks people could pick up. ( Obviously, sewing them at home, not in a group at the church!)

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15 minutes ago, matrips said:

Thanks.  Do you know what page or what day that discussion was on?  

 

There was another post as well that mentioned some of the genetics involved.  I want to go back and reread the posts.

I think I managed to quote the post you are looking for so it should be a post or two up from this one 

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😡Howell Township, New Jersey

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/coronavirus/man-with-covid-19-goes-on-shoplifting-spree-at-nj-lowes-store-police-say/2270102/
“A New Jersey man who knew he had the novel coronavirus went on a shoplifting spree, putting the four officers who arrested him in danger, investigators said. 

Police say the man, who they have not identified due to HIPPA laws, along with two other suspects, stole more than $2,000 in power tools from a Lowe’s store in Howell Township, New Jersey, on Monday around 2 p.m. 

A security officer, two shoppers and four Howell Township Police officers who responded were exposed while trying to detain and arrest the trio, who took no precautions to protect others inside the store, according to investigators.”

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2 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

😡Howell Township, New Jersey

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/coronavirus/man-with-covid-19-goes-on-shoplifting-spree-at-nj-lowes-store-police-say/2270102/
“A New Jersey man who knew he had the novel coronavirus went on a shoplifting spree, putting the four officers who arrested him in danger, investigators said. 

Police say the man, who they have not identified due to HIPPA laws, along with two other suspects, stole more than $2,000 in power tools from a Lowe’s store in Howell Township, New Jersey, on Monday around 2 p.m. 

A security officer, two shoppers and four Howell Township Police officers who responded were exposed while trying to detain and arrest the trio, who took no precautions to protect others inside the store, according to investigators.”

 

That makes me so angry!

 I think penalties should be extremely extremely severe.

 

(Also penalties for arson should be super severe: massive damage and loss of human , animal and plant life can come from it ). 

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22 hours ago, ElizabethB said:

Another factor in the difference may also be vitamin D.  I posted earlier about how it may be part of the racial gap, but it may also be some of the difference between NY and CA.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/vitamin-d-coronavirus-gap-liz-brown/

And I found out that there is a genetic cause for some people to have low Vitamin D.  My youngest was diagnosed with juvenile osteoporosis which started when we were living in Florida and she was outside a lot.  Last year, I ran my dh's and my genetics through Promothease and I found out that my dh has a genetic deficiency to producing vitamin D on his own- which I am sure my youngest inherited.    Oh and he has no African roots at all, according to those same genetic tests.   

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2 hours ago, Cnew02 said:

I find it discouraging that our hopes are all pinned on a vaccine, but they’ve never succeeded in a vaccine for a Corona virus before.  Lots of time and money will be poured into developing one yes, but not everything can be vaccinated against.  Completely different, but the same principle, we don’t have an HIV vaccine yet and time and money have been poured into that for 40 years. 

 

Yes, but aren't there meds for HIV positive people to be almost undetectable? 

CDC Agrees That Person with Undetectable HIV Cannot Transmit the Virus. The agency has adopted the widely accepted position that an HIV-positive person with an undetectable viral load cannot pass the virus through unprotected sex. If you can't detect it, you can't transmit it

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/cdc-person-with-undetectable-hiv-cannot-transmit-virus

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25 minutes ago, TravelingChris said:

And I found out that there is a genetic cause for some people to have low Vitamin D.  My youngest was diagnosed with juvenile osteoporosis which started when we were living in Florida and she was outside a lot.  Last year, I ran my dh's and my genetics through Promothease and I found out that my dh has a genetic deficiency to producing vitamin D on his own- which I am sure my youngest inherited.    Oh and he has no African roots at all, according to those same genetic tests.   

Can they get their levels up adequately with supplements or cod liver oil?  Adequate levels of vitamin D seem to be important for so many different things.

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My point with the HIV comparison was not that we dint have treatments, it was that a vaccine is not guaranteed even if we pour money and world wide effort into it. Most of the plans that I’m hearing just assume we’ll for sure have a vaccine in the next few years, but that might not happen.  

I’m sure we’ll develop some sort of treatment for Covid.  Although we do have treatments for influenza, but they don’t work great. Tamiflu just makes it slightly less bad and shortens it by a day or so.  I hope Covid treatments work better. Viruses are just hard to deal with.  

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1 minute ago, Cnew02 said:

My point with the HIV comparison was not that we dint have treatments, it was that a vaccine is not guaranteed even if we pour money and world wide effort into it. Most of the plans that I’m hearing just assume we’ll for sure have a vaccine in the next few years, but that might not happen.  

I’m sure we’ll develop some sort of treatment for Covid.  Although we do have treatments for influenza, but they don’t work great. Tamiflu just makes it slightly less bad and shortens it by a day or so.  I hope Covid treatments work better. Viruses are just hard to deal with.  

No one can guarantee anything.  Many are working on vaccines.  Someone in some country might be successful or they may not.  (I can't find the citation but I thought that someone somewhere in this giant thread said that they were close to a vaccine for the common cold - or at least one of the viruses that cause the common cold - but it got stopped due to lack of funding). 

But having a better understanding of the biology of this virus and how it affects our biology would go a long way in making this less deadly.  Having the right treatments is huge and right now doctors are just trying to do anything they can to keep people from dying.  Even if we reduced the deadliness to this virus to that of influenza, that in and of itself would be a huge improvement. 

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This is a me pondering something that I don’t think has been discussed......

I have just been skimming through U.K. papers and someplace along the way glanced at a map of the world with which strain of Covid each country had.  I immediately noticed that the US and U.K. have different strains labeled on the map.......passed that off as because of travel we all must be a mix of strains in every country to some degree. Discussion here regarding NY and CA different strains ............
 

 That said I just now realized depending on immunity etc I might be fortunate enough to be immune in one or the other of my countries but may not be in both.....depending on vaccines etc.  Now pondering future travel restrictions based on status of your immunities.

This is being said by someone who is not immune to measles which I actually had as a child.  I have been vaccinated many many times.  I can answer when asked that I have been vaccinated but.......am I immune, very doubtful. 

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1 hour ago, ElizabethB said:

Can they get their levels up adequately with supplements or cod liver oil?  Adequate levels of vitamin D seem to be important for so many different things.

Yes, They both have Vitamin D prescriptions as do I, though I have no genetic cause for my lower vitamin D.  My dd has been on prescription Vit D for about 10 years now and my dh has finally started as of this year.

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55 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

And this is why you don't run out to get a medicine touted by a non-medical person in a press release. 

What I have no  idea about is whether Chloroquine is the same risk as Hydroxychloroquine = which was the medicine used succesfully in France and in places in the US.  I have been on hydroxychloroquine for more than 23 years.  When I started on it way back when, I did research on it.  It was considered a much safer alternative to chloroquine.  I do not know any lupus or RA patients taking chloroquine.  There are so many of us taking hydroxychloroquine.  It has been used for many, many decades and at least some of the people with lupus who are on it probably have type 2 diabetes and are taking metformin too.  There are no black box warnings for taking Plaquenil at all.

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4 minutes ago, TravelingChris said:

What I have no  idea about is whether Chloroquine is the same risk as Hydroxychloroquine = which was the medicine used succesfully in France and in places in the US.  I have been on hydroxychloroquine for more than 23 years.  When I started on it way back when, I did research on it.  It was considered a much safer alternative to chloroquine.  I do not know any lupus or RA patients taking chloroquine.  There are so many of us taking hydroxychloroquine.  It has been used for many, many decades and at least some of the people with lupus who are on it probably have type 2 diabetes and are taking metformin too.  There are no black box warnings for taking Plaquenil at all.

But I am sure that you and others have doctors who are weighing all the risks of all your meds.  I have many meds that I cannot take because I react to them or because they don't work on me or because they will interact with my other meds.   But of course those same meds work great for other people. 

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12 minutes ago, TravelingChris said:

Yes, They both have Vitamin D prescriptions as do I, though I have no genetic cause for my lower vitamin D.  My dd has been on prescription Vit D for about 10 years now and my dh has finally started as of this year.

Prescription Vitamin D is often Vitamin D2 which is not absorbed as well as D3. 

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Has anyone seen any models for the U.S. that compare total covid-19 deaths to the overall totals from previous years due to heart disease, lower respiratory disease, diabetes, influenza and pneumonia, and suicides?  The stats below should go down and some should transfer to the covid-19 category, correct?

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm

Number of deaths for leading causes of death
  • Heart disease: 647,457
  • Cancer: 599,108
  • Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
  • Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
  • Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
  • Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
  • Diabetes: 83,564
  • Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
  • Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
  • Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

Source: Deaths: Leading Causes for 2017, table 1 pdf icon[PDF- 2 MB]

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mlktwins... I am so sorry.  Yes, this is what I find so concerning about the virus and to me, what makes it so much worse than the flu.  Healthcare workers get sick and die from this in unheard of numbers.  I wonder if this has something to do with that viral load thing?  It seems like places like cruise ships, hospitals, nursing homes, etc have a much higher percentage of people that have worse outcomes.   Anyway, I fear for our health workers.

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A doctor on twitter, Dr. Erik Hermstad, @EHermstad, said he hasn't seen any vitamin D levels in the 40's or higher yet on ANY patient he's admitted with it.

I've been blasting my twitter account with Vitamin D info.  Normally I post phonics info!  I'm @PhonicsMom there.

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30 minutes ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

Has anyone seen any models for the U.S. that compare total covid-19 deaths to the overall totals from previous years due to heart disease, lower respiratory disease, diabetes, influenza and pneumonia, and suicides?  The stats below should go down and some should transfer to the covid-19 category, correct?

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm

Number of deaths for leading causes of death
  • Heart disease: 647,457
  • Cancer: 599,108
  • Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
  • Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
  • Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
  • Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
  • Diabetes: 83,564
  • Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
  • Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
  • Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

Source: Deaths: Leading Causes for 2017, table 1 pdf icon[PDF- 2 MB]

Did you see this one:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/the-rapid-increase-of-u-s-coronavirus-deaths-in-one-graphic.html

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6 hours ago, Mom2mthj said:

I personally wouldn’t trust them to not release the data or for it not to be hacked.  Maybe it would go over fine in NZ, but I would envision a huge uproar over tracking people’s every movement.  

This quote was in response to me discussing the Singapore app that tracks people 2m away from you so that contact tracing can happen efficiently and effectively. 

The interview I heard was actually with the Privacy Commissioner here in NZ, not with a tech person.  We know the tech is possible because Singapore is using it, but it is the ethics of the tracking that must be considered.  Luckily for us, NZ has had national laws about privacy for decades, and the Privacy Commissioner's office must be involved with figuring out what can be allowed and how to make it meet the privacy laws.  Once his office determines the requirements, then the GCSB's cybersecurity division (our national spy/secrets group) gets involved to make sure that the tech is sound and not hackable.  Then it all loops back to the Privacy Commissioner for approval before the public is asked to voluntarily download the app. 

This is not a done deal, but it is in the works to handle large-scale contact tracing.  People keep talking about contact tracing, but it takes either a HUGE number of people to do it for a dense population or technology to help.  People can't just throw around 'contact tracing' as one of the solutions without actually considering *how* it will be implemented.

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@Sneezyonehttps://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/usns-mercy-crewmember-tests-positive-for-covid-19/2302319/

“Updated on April 8, 2020 at 8:08 pm

A medical treatment facility crewmember aboard the San Diego-based USNS Mercy has tested positive for COVID-19, according to Navy Public Affairs Officer Lt. Joseph Pfaff.

The individual is isolated onboard and will soon be transferred off the ship to an isolation facility where they will self-monitor for severe symptoms, Pfaff said Wednesday.

This positive case will not affect the ability for the Mercy to receive patients, he said. Right now, the ship is treating non-coronavirus patients from Los Angeles-area hospitals to free up beds and resources for coronavirus patients. 

"The ship is following protocols and is taking precaution to ensure the health and safety of all crew members and patients onboard," Pfaff said.

Military and COVID-19

Anyone who boards the Mercy, which began accepting patients on March 29 after docking at the Port of Los Angeles, is tested for the coronavirus. 

As of April 7, some 27 patients have been treated on the 1,000-bed hospital ship for things like gunshot wounds, heart failure and pneumonia, but no COVID-19 cases, according to a spokesperson.”

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I've been thinking a lot about what happens next. It seems obvious to me that the US is going to open up in about a month. I don't see any alternative. There's too much money on the line to let the shut down continue. 

Which means that we're all pretty much on our own. The virus will still circulate. There is no vaccine and no testing widespread testing for immunity. 

I think that is why we are seeing so much talk about how the deaths are overstated and how most of us had this back in November. They want us to go back to our normal routine in a month or so without any fears. Go to the mall, go to baseball games, fly across the country, etc. 

We're going to receive a lot of terrible information about risk from all directions. It will be very confusing. There will be a lot of pressure on people who are still trying to social distance. 

But the virus will keep spreading and people will die. I anticipate a lot of lying about mortality figures. Lots of heart attacks and deaths from the flu instead of COVID19. Nothing will be clear for a long time but eventually we will see a two or so year period with a higher mortality rate across the population and probably a decreased average lifespan for everyone. 

Most of the people dying in the US are invisible people which will make this much easier to ignore. 

Because I believe the virus to be very dangerous and know that we will be at risk until a vaccine is developed, I've been thinking about what risks we as a family are willing to take once the stay at home orders are lifted. How can we control those risks? Who can we trust? My husband and I both work outside of the home. Our employers will likely require that we return to our offices in May. That's not a risk we can control. But there are many other ways that we can reduce contact with others; online shopping, avoiding crowded events, etc. 

On the who can we trust front - I've already made some assessments. People who have not taken this seriously, those who saw the shutdown as a personal inconvenience, and those who saw it through filtered through a political viewpoint are to be trusted. People who do not vaccinate are not to be trusted either. I'm obviously speaking only for myself and my family here. 

I've sadly concluded that there are people we know who we will need to avoid in the future because I don't trust them. Trust is important because if we socially distance but come in contact with people who do not, then we're at risk. 

What are you guys thinking about "what comes after?" I just don't see how we can return to normal life without a vaccine. I think some people will try to go back to normal life without any concern about the risk. They'll go to football games, concerts, etc. Then another group will be more cautious but will listen to the authorities who will say there is no risk and will attend crowded events, etc. Then there will be a significant minority that will hold back. Avoid risks when they can. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

, I've been thinking about what risks we as a family are willing to take once the stay at home orders are lifted. How can we control those risks? 

I've been thinking about my MIL who lives alone in her house.  She is 90 and has just gotten over pneumonia at Christmas and is still suffering some respiratory issues.  She is *clearly* in the high risk group.  She has not left her house in 4 weeks.  She gets the groceries delivered and then wipes them all down with clorox wipes or leaves them in the garage for 3 days.  Does she stay in her house in complete isolation for a YEAR?

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4 minutes ago, lewelma said:

I've been thinking about my MIL who lives alone in her house.  She is 90 and has just gotten over pneumonia at Christmas and is still suffering some respiratory issues.  She is *clearly* in the high risk group.  She has not left her house in 4 weeks.  She gets the groceries delivered and then wipes them all down with clorox wipes or leaves them in the garage for 3 days.  Does she stay in her house in complete isolation for a YEAR?

I don't think it's possible for anyone to remain in complete isolation for that long. That's why this is so terrifying. 

I was thinking about how each one of us is a link in a chain of people. The people we see are connected to each other. I don't want to connect my 83 year old father to the guy I know who keeps writing on FB about how this is a big hoax. That situation is entirely within my control. I wish that I wasn't the one who had the make the choice to avoid him because I am not the one who is increasing the risk for everyone. But I know that is not how it's going to go down. 

Because it's really not practical for our at risk family and friends to be completely isolated for a year (or longer), we have to do what we can to make it safe for us. 

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