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wuhan - coronavirus

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9 hours ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

 

I think the rate of dead/diagnoses could be low, because we aren't testing all the asymptomatic people, or high because we aren't testing the dead people, and because it takes time to die.

But I have no doubt that the dead/recovered ratio is high.  Because the number of people who were sick 3 weeks ago, was so much lower, and the recovered number only includes those people.  

I noticed some time ago that some locations weren't really reporting recoveries.  I could see recoveries being very underreported since everyone is more focused on sick people.  So that is another likely factor skewing things.

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9 hours ago, square_25 said:

Or artificially low, because some places aren’t even testing the dead. It’s really hard to say.

NY is definitely testing mostly sick people, but it is running a lot of tests. So I’m sure the numbers are inflated, but I’m not sure how much. And then there are the related deaths due to healthcare system overload...

Basically are numbers are a big 🤷‍♀️, but we know it's not good.

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16 hours ago, Pen said:

From a known veterinarian who is into natural care of dogs and cats and is into homeopathy: 

Another veterinarian who was sick, but did not have a test to confirm CV19, so it could just have been a bad cold found the Nux Vomica helpful.

 I think it needs, even if anecdotal, someone or several people with confirmed CV19 to give it a try.

I wanted to comment that I checked out this link & the vet said one of COVID's symptoms was increased smell. I'm pretty sure we know that 25% or more of patients experience a lack of smell. I didn't look any further. (I have nux vomica on hand because I have a friend who swears by it & pushes it on everyone she knows. I don't put any faith in this claim. i will continue to take my Vit D!)

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45 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

Based on # cases & trends, it looks like Spain's cumulative positives will overtake Italy's in the next couple of days. Italy's confirmed positive numbers have been trending down. Their daily death numbers are trending down, too, but I assume those might take longer to decrease due to the lag in deaths from serious cases taking time to resolve.

What is very alarming about Spain is their number of critical cases.  They have about 1/2 as many confirmed cases as the US but 20% more critical cases as the US

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https://youtu.be/svGD6e_X_2w

Italy: a hospital using precautions such that at least so far no medical staff have been infected 

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46 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

I wanted to comment that I checked out this link & the vet said one of COVID's symptoms was increased smell. I'm pretty sure we know that 25% or more of patients experience a lack of smell. I didn't look any further. (I have nux vomica on hand because I have a friend who swears by it & pushes it on everyone she knows. I don't put any faith in this claim. i will continue to take my Vit D!)

 

I don’t have faith in it either.  And in addition to the smell thing I was suspicious of no cough symptom, which while some people with CV19 don’t have cough it meant that a key symptom was one the vet who wrote up his experience did not have.  Also putting symptoms into an online database, I could get a similar output answer of symptoms are suspicious for CV19 for my son, but that still didn’t mean that he had it.

From my own knowledge of homeopathy it isn’t even what I would personally choose to go with symptoms I have read are typical.  

 Nonetheless, it came to me from 3000 miles away. Circulating in an email, somewhat like those bogus ones about “lung fibrosis”, but not as clearly absolutely Debunkable.  

 I know a lot of allopathic doctors with enough curiosity that they would be willing to give an inexpensive homeopathic remedy a try.  (If they were infected, but not fighting for their life, or maybe even if they were.) 

Only no one I know has a confirmed case of CV19.  

I was hoping if the word went out someone might have CV19 and try the Nux Vomica and report on it!😊

Maybe I should find the family and friends with CV19 thread, or the one with family or self in medical fields. 

🤔

maybe I should write to the vets and suggest they get allopath medicine friends with confirmed cases to give it a try...   but I would have more confidence in anecdotal reports back from someone on this thread where there’s no particular vested interest in reporting a positive outcome. 

 

 

Edited by Pen

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My state (NV) and county health dashboards just updated.
My county makes up 75% of the state’s population. 
77% of all cases in the state are in my county. 
94% of all deaths in the state are in my county. 

F112B842-63C2-4E51-907C-75C55A72E564.png

463DC3C8-10B5-492F-80F5-86043A876CC3.jpeg

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Invisible Heros of Coronavirus

Quote

To my mind, though, some of the most heroic people—the ones who keep the lights on, the water flowing, who keep us comfortably warm or cold—are all but invisible. And they keep that cloak of invisibility through the modern-day camouflage of hardhats and steel-toed shoes.
I’m thinking of utility workers.
When pandemics sweep over, markets stumble, or natural disasters hit, the most critical people are those who keep our infrastructure operating. Politicians get a lot of the air time, but their guidance is hard to disseminate without operational electrical and telecommunications systems. Doctors and nurses are also front-line heroes, of course, but the biggest threat to public health has more to do with whether the water and wastewater systems are operating properly. If water systems fail, public health crises can spiral out of control.

I'd add to this list anyone keeping our phone & internet systems running although this author doesn't specifically mention them.

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17 hours ago, Corraleno said:

So that would be a total of 21,000 cremations for people who died of all causes (not just CV19) over a three month period in Wuhan. Yet there were more than 56,000 cremations in Wuhan in the last quarter of 2019, which was only slightly higher than stats for the last quarter of 2018. So the normal number of cremations one would expect in Wuhan in the first quarter of 2020 would be over 50,000 even without CV19. I guess if half the population fled the city and those who died of "normal" causes died elsewhere, that could explain some of the discrepancy. But it doesn't really make sense that there would be 30,000 fewer cremations than normal in Wuhan during a pandemic, so I wouldn't put much stock in those numbers either.

I agree. You and I do NOT know the real number. We simply have no way of knowing because China does not report the real number. The 21,000 is just as believable as the 3300 they reported. 

We DO NOT know the real number. 

Edited by JadeOrchidSong
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😂https://abc7news.com/bhpd-finds-192-rolls-of-toilet-paper-in-stolen-vehicle/6068705/

“BEVERLY HILLS, Calif. -- After conducting a traffic stop on a stolen vehicle, the Beverly Hills Police Department found something unexpected... 192 rolls of toilet paper.

Officers pulled over a stolen SUV at Rexford and Santa Monica Blvd. on Tuesday morning.

An investigation is taking place to determine where the toilet paper came from and if the vehicle owner stole the toilet paper or purchased it.

The suspect is now in custody without incident, according to police.”

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1 hour ago, SKL said:

I noticed some time ago that some locations weren't really reporting recoveries.  I could see recoveries being very underreported since everyone is more focused on sick people.  So that is another likely factor skewing things.

 

Yep, totally agree!

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Zaadam and Rotterdam

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/national-international/cruise-ship-with-sick-on-board-to-approach-south-florida-with-fate-uncertain/2266079/

“Sources tell NBC News that a "deal is done" which would allow most passengers to get off the ships. The deal still needs the signatures of lawyers as required.

Broward County Commissioner Michael Udine said on Twitter that a final document would be released Thursday morning.

In an email sent Wednesday night, Holland America said it had received approval from a health system in Fort Lauderdale to treat fewer than 10 people “who need immediate critical care.” Some 45 other ill passengers will reportedly remain on board. Holland America has chartered planes for foreign nationals who will board specially sanitized buses to the waiting aircrafts.”

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This is sort of a random observation that concerns me.   Not sure what it means beyond stoping the spread is obviously very difficult......I know it’s been talked about before.......
 

 One odd thing that @Plum numbers just highlighted to me once again........there was a huge number of people who must have thought to some degree they were positive and weren’t.  The reality is most people who get tested are not positive.  We know it is still difficult to get tested so there is at least belief of exposure in most of these negative cases.  Then we look at numbers from a rather closed community like the Diamond Princes and see roughly half the positives are not symptomatic.  They would never have bothered to get tested in ordinary circumstances. 

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1 hour ago, Bootsie said:

What is very alarming about Spain is their number of critical cases.  They have about 1/2 as many confirmed cases as the US but 20% more critical cases as the US

Spain is scaring the bejeezus out of me.  Their death rate is so high compared to everyone else - and then I saw this article saying it looks like they're missing about half the actual deaths, based on retrospectives on normal deaths for this time of year compared to past years.

It's in Spanish (which I do read), but the charts alone give a graphic picture.  Yes, some of these deaths are likely because people are dying of something else but can't get the medical attention they'd get in other years - but that's still indirectly caused by the virus...  The blue line is average deaths, actual for this year goes up and down, as would be expected.. until mid-March.  The difference in red is between estimated deaths, added deaths officially from Coronavirus, and other 'extra' deaths with no current explanation.

image.png.33fa549fb45f59a8949311beb35ec18c.png

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I remember puzzle generally meaning jigsaw puzzle, but then it seemed like so many more types of puzzles came available and now puzzle is more general.  

I think a lot of companies that may have kept their employees on with some stay at home work or at least continued paying some employees went ahead and laid off or did furloughs when the package came out and they saw employees would still get almost full pay without the company having to pay it while closed.    Oldest dd was originally going to be working from home.  She's a store manager for a clothing store and had paperwork she could do, but this week they furloughed everyone.  

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Another puzzle is why California, with thousands of infections, has a significantly lower death rate even in the cities than New York.  The density of deaths in some areas is kind of perplexing, especially when there is significant international travel to both, and was significant travel in January and February back and forth to China for the lunar new year.

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1 minute ago, Arctic Mama said:

Another puzzle is why California, with thousands of infections, has a significantly lower death rate even in the cities than New York.  The density of deaths in some areas is kind of perplexing, especially when there is significant international travel to both, and was significant travel in January and February back and forth to China for the lunar new year.

I wonder if it has to do with viral load. People in NYC are packed so close together. They're breathing everyone else's air and touching so many surfaces that thousands of other people have touched that same day. Maybe the people who are getting infected in NYC are exposed to a higher viral load at the time of infection and that is leading to more severe cases.

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8 minutes ago, Arctic Mama said:

Another puzzle is why California, with thousands of infections, has a significantly lower death rate even in the cities than New York.  The density of deaths in some areas is kind of perplexing, especially when there is significant international travel to both, and was significant travel in January and February back and forth to China for the lunar new year.

Does California have as much mass transit as New York.  I would assume more time in close quarters, both in trains and stations increases exposure.  Also, California has really nice weather this time of year and more people have likely been outside exercising rather than staying inside or exercising in gyms.  I would assume starting out healthier makes for better outcomes.  I know I am in overall better shape at the end of summer with actual sunshine - real vitamin D -than I am after a winter inside.  As much as I mean to get out and exercise, it is really hard to motivate on short, cold, cloudy, snowy, windy days.

Edited by Mom2mthj
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5 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/04/01/europe/iceland-testing-coronavirus-intl/index.html?__twitter_impression=true
 

has this been posted yet?

Iceland have tested 5pc of the population. Less than 1 percent of tests came back positive . But of those that came back positive half were asymptomatic.

 

Quoting partly to bring attention.

This seems similar to testing in Vo, Italy where everyone was tested and lots of positive asymptomatic cases were found.  I don’t recall the percentage . 

I think it’s a reason that masks, Scarves, bandanas, for all, homemade or whatever, would help.  

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11 minutes ago, Arctic Mama said:

Another puzzle is why California, with thousands of infections, has a significantly lower death rate even in the cities than New York.  The density of deaths in some areas is kind of perplexing, especially when there is significant international travel to both, and was significant travel in January and February back and forth to China for the lunar new year.

I would guess they are just testing a different population — we’re still testing the sickest people in NY. They also may have fewer people living together in households and passing it around. Lots of variables.

Manhattan is the densest and least affected borough. A lot of plausible explanations can’t be squared with that.

Edited by square_25
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I've been wondering about the reports that this could possibly spread just via talking. Didn't we have several NBA teams who tested all of the team members and didn't we only have about a dozen test positive? Wouldn't there have been a higher number of positives (even if asymptomatic) if it was that easily spread?

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1 minute ago, square_25 said:

I would guess they are just testing a different population — we’re still testing the sickest people in NY. They also may have fewer people living in single households and passing it around. Lots of variables.

Manhattan is the densest and least affected borough. A lot of plausible explanations can’t be squared with that.

Wouldn’t Manhattan also be the richest, healthiest population?  We have lots of cases in Detroit - not really particularly dense, very little mass transit, but very poor.  Income doesn’t mean you will be healthy, but it does improve your ability to obtain healthy food over a long period of time and address medical concerns as they arise.  Right now, money allows you to have stuff delivered or buy the more expensive brand so you don’t have to go to multiple stores.  With all the talk about vitamin D, California should have that in spades over New York right now.

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12 minutes ago, Mom2mthj said:

Does California have as much mass transit as New York.  I would assume more time in close quarters, both in trains and stations increases exposure.  Also, California has really nice weather this time of year and more people have likely been outside exercising rather than staying inside or exercising in gyms.  I would assume starting out healthier makes for better outcomes.  I know I am in overall better shape at the end of summer with actual sunshine - real vitamin D -than I am after a winter inside.  As much as I mean to get out and exercise, it is really hard to motivate on short, cold, cloudy, snowy, windy days.

 

Yes , I agree with a lot of that! 

 

And @Arctic Mama

having lived in both, I have some speculations.  In addition to greater crowding in New York City area at least.

Much of California has more sunshine and a culture that allows more casual dress with skin getting the sunshine if vitamin D is relevant.

Much of California has relatively more fresh fruit and  vegetables widely available.

although smog is a major Los Angeles problem, and asthma related to it, which would be  CV19 risk environmental risk factor, a lot of Californians get more fresh air and outdoors exercise than more indoor oriented lifestyle NewYorkers. 

 

(These types of factors May also relate to why Hawaii isn’t sky high despite huge international travel.) 

Edited by Pen
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Southern Maryland engineers working on modifying breast pumps to meet some patients' ventilator needs. 

They acknowledge this wouldn't work for every patient, but hearing about such innovations does bring me hope. I love that the original idea came from a mama with an old pump sitting in her closet.... 

https://www.thebaynet.com/articles/0420/southern-maryland-engineers-hope-to-solve-ventilator-shortage-with-breast-pumps.html?fbclid=IwAR0FE76penCR5WRd_X8WdQhbKvI-X76pOlfnnBcy25lko-cARylFPJOL_8U

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36 minutes ago, Slache said:

Doesn't most of Spain smoke?

Last time I was there (2 years ago), there really weren't a lot of smokers. Looked it up - about 25% of adults - which is about 10% higher than the US. Although that doesn't include vaping numbers, which at least here is on the rise...

Edited by Matryoshka
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11 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I would guess they are just testing a different population — we’re still testing the sickest people in NY. They also may have fewer people living in single households and passing it around. Lots of variables.

Manhattan is the densest and least affected borough. A lot of plausible explanations can’t be squared with that.

 

I lost the by borough list.

Staten Island was very high? 

I wonder if more Manhattanites were able to switch to working from home than people who live in other boroughs. 

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6 minutes ago, Acadie said:

Southern Maryland engineers working on modifying breast pumps to meet some patients' ventilator needs. 

They acknowledge this wouldn't work for every patient, but hearing about such innovations does bring me hope. I love that the original idea came from a mama with an old pump sitting in her closet.... 

https://www.thebaynet.com/articles/0420/southern-maryland-engineers-hope-to-solve-ventilator-shortage-with-breast-pumps.html?fbclid=IwAR0FE76penCR5WRd_X8WdQhbKvI-X76pOlfnnBcy25lko-cARylFPJOL_8U

I listened to this podcast yesterday, and you might enjoy it! It's a pretty interesting manufacturing challenge. https://podcasts.google.com/?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5ucHIub3JnLzUxMDI4OS9wb2RjYXN0LnhtbA&episode=OTAzMmVlMmItOGY5MC00MjZhLThiNWItODkxOWNlZDA0NjU3

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29 minutes ago, Arctic Mama said:

Another puzzle is why California, with thousands of infections, has a significantly lower death rate even in the cities than New York.  The density of deaths in some areas is kind of perplexing, especially when there is significant international travel to both, and was significant travel in January and February back and forth to China for the lunar new year.

I've wondered if they'll do studies about why some places fare differently than others. There are stark differences between my county and the county south of us in outcomes, and I'd be interested in why. 

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2 hours ago, SKL said:

I too pictured a large tool when I saw "jigsaw."  I did eventually figure it out from the context.  😛

We had to use a jigsaw in shop class in 8th grade, so maybe that is why I thought of the tool first.

My husband works construction, and the tool was the first thing that came to my mind as well, lol.

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2 minutes ago, kdsuomi said:

I've wondered if they'll do studies about why some places fare differently than others. There are stark differences between my county and the county south of us in outcomes, and I'd be interested in why. 

Yeah, I think there are multiple factors going on, and many reams of academic papers will be written exploring the whys.

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Has this been posted? I heard one of the doctors explaining this on the radio this morning. He said it works like a vaccine except when you give it to someone who is already sick, you could see the effects in just 20 min. They hope to be ready for clinical trials this summer.

https://news.vumc.org/2020/03/23/researchers-developing-potential-coronavirus-antibody-therapies/

Researchers from the Vanderbilt Vaccine Center (VVC) have rapidly responded to this outbreak by building a comprehensive “toolkit” to identify and analyze antibodies isolated from the blood of survivors for their ability to neutralize SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.

Thousands of antibodies that already have been identified by the VVC are now being analyzed for their ability to inhibit the virus and, more importantly, to prevent it from causing illness. The goal is to develop and manufacture the most promising lead antibodies in preparation for initiating clinical trials to test their efficacy in humans.

“Our goal is to prepare antibodies for human clinical trials by this summer,” said James Crowe, MD, director of the Vanderbilt Vaccine Center.

“We have ultra-rapid antibody discovery technologies and already have discovered SARS-CoV-2 antibodies,” Crowe said. “Our partners have the manufacturing and product development expertise to turn these antibodies into effective biological drugs very quickly.”

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A thought based on a bunch of posts (on NZ, Iceland, etc.).  It seems like island nations with strict protocols and high levels of testing are going to be the easiest when it comes to controlling an infectious disease like this.  But the question is - if/once they eradicate it in their countries how are they going to keep it from coming in again?  Ban all travel in and out of the country? 

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31 minutes ago, Mom2mthj said:

Does California have as much mass transit as New York.  I would assume more time in close quarters, both in trains and stations increases exposure.  Also, California has really nice weather this time of year and more people have likely been outside exercising rather than staying inside or exercising in gyms.  I would assume starting out healthier makes for better outcomes.  I know I am in overall better shape at the end of summer with actual sunshine - real vitamin D -than I am after a winter inside.  As much as I mean to get out and exercise, it is really hard to motivate on short, cold, cloudy, snowy, windy days.

At the northern latitudes, even if you go outside, you are not making vitamin D yet.  Your skin only makes vitamin D when the sun angle is 50 degrees or higher.  For northern latitudes, that is starting to happen around April, and only for a few minutes around solar noon each day...the amount of time around solar noon increases daily until the summer equinox.  People in California can make vitamin D now, much of the northern part of the United States is just starting to enter a time when they can make vitamin D.  Also, you need to have a lot of skin exposed to make significant amounts, and the older you are, the less efficient your body is at making vitamin D from the sun.  

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10 minutes ago, Mom2mthj said:

Wouldn’t Manhattan also be the richest, healthiest population?  We have lots of cases in Detroit - not really particularly dense, very little mass transit, but very poor.  Income doesn’t mean you will be healthy, but it does improve your ability to obtain healthy food over a long period of time and address medical concerns as they arise.  Right now, money allows you to have stuff delivered or buy the more expensive brand so you don’t have to go to multiple stores.  With all the talk about vitamin D, California should have that in spades over New York right now.

Oakland County Mi has numbers has numbers almost as large as Wayne(Detroit).  I lived there for years.......Oakland is the exact opposite of Wayne in terms of demographics.  The very  Wealthy combined with middle class.  Large lots, nice houses, healthy life styles..........they are being hit possibly harder than Detroit........Both sitting right under 2000 cases with Oakland having more deaths......very possibly Oakland has more elderly, but don’t know.   Northern Michigan areas with a large number of second homes, primarily SE Mi and Chicago are are rising quickly.  People fled there and brought it with them....my extended family is there.  Second death in Traverse City today.  Politically some odd decisions like banning treatment with hydrocorzone treatment which just got reversed last night.  SE Michigan is hurting........scared for Northern Michigan because the hospitals are not meant for numbers of critically ill, TC is probably it.

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1 hour ago, mumto2 said:

This is sort of a random observation that concerns me.   Not sure what it means beyond stoping the spread is obviously very difficult......I know it’s been talked about before.......
 

 One odd thing that @Plum numbers just highlighted to me once again........there was a huge number of people who must have thought to some degree they were positive and weren’t.  The reality is most people who get tested are not positive.  We know it is still difficult to get tested so there is at least belief of exposure in most of these negative cases.  Then we look at numbers from a rather closed community like the Diamond Princes and see roughly half the positives are not symptomatic.  They would never have bothered to get tested in ordinary circumstances. 

 

Yes there seems to be frequent mismatch between what people think in terms of their own virus positive or negative status and the apparent reality when testing is done.  

A widely available antibody test might show something different. perhaps more positive results for people who think they have it if regular test doesn’t catch them at right moment to show antigen. 

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31 minutes ago, Mom2mthj said:

Wouldn’t Manhattan also be the richest, healthiest population?  We have lots of cases in Detroit - not really particularly dense, very little mass transit, but very poor.  Income doesn’t mean you will be healthy, but it does improve your ability to obtain healthy food over a long period of time and address medical concerns as they arise.  Right now, money allows you to have stuff delivered or buy the more expensive brand so you don’t have to go to multiple stores.  With all the talk about vitamin D, California should have that in spades over New York right now.

Richest, yes. Healthiest, I don’t know. The average age is probably not that low. I’ll check the stats later.

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12 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

A thought based on a bunch of posts (on NZ, Iceland, etc.).  It seems like island nations with strict protocols and high levels of testing are going to be the easiest when it comes to controlling an infectious disease like this.  But the question is - if/once they eradicate it in their countries how are they going to keep it from coming in again?  Ban all travel in and out of the country? 

 

They would need to ban most travel in and out, have quarantines for people who do arrive—but could then have freedom within the island country as we all  await vaccines and so forth.

If two island countries like NZ and Australia could both eradicate, they could have free travel between them.  

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10 minutes ago, mumto2 said:

Oakland County Mi has numbers has numbers almost as large as Wayne(Detroit).  I lived there for years.......Oakland is the exact opposite of Wayne in terms of demographics.  The very  Wealthy combined with middle class.  Large lots, nice houses, healthy life styles..........they are being hit possibly harder than Detroit........Both sitting right under 2000 cases with Oakland having more deaths......very possibly Oakland has more elderly, but don’t know.   Northern Michigan areas with a large number of second homes, primarily SE Mi and Chicago are are rising quickly.  People fled there and brought it with them....my extended family is there.  Second death in Traverse City today.  Politically some odd decisions like banning treatment with hydrocorzone treatment which just got reversed last night.  SE Michigan is hurting........scared for Northern Michigan because the hospitals are not meant for numbers of critically ill, TC is probably it.

This makes me nervous because many Chicago people have second homes in my county, too. With the shelter-in-place order in effect for the past few weeks, they are not supposed to be traveling back and forth between their primary and secondary homes, but some of them are. Our local government and law enforcement are concerned and have been trying to get the governor's office to take action, but have gotten no response. 

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The Queens part of NYC where it is so high has I think got a lot of different immigrant groups represented, high I think maybe even by NYC standards, and perhaps part of explanation is just a matter of where someone arrived who perhaps was an early unrecognized “superspreader”.  

Where is JFK airport in relation to the Queens hard hit area? And what about work areas that tended to be getting CV19  elsewhere?  Cab drivers picking up international tourists? (Though maybe NY cabs  have more plexiglass separation and would be less a problem than in Japan).     

Airport employees?  Workers in hotels?

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5 minutes ago, Pen said:

The Queens part of NYC where it is so high has I think got a lot of different immigrant groups represented, high I think maybe even by NYC standards, and perhaps part of explanation is just a matter of where someone arrived who perhaps was an early unrecognized “superspreader”.  

Where is JFK airport in relation to the Queens hard hit area? And what about work areas that tended to be getting CV19  elsewhere?  Cab drivers picking up international tourists? (Though maybe NY cabs  have more plexiglass separation and would be less a problem than in Japan).     

Airport employees?  Workers in hotels?

 

A lot of the harder hit areas are Orthodox Jewish areas, and I doubt they are traveling more than others. 

JFK is all near there, so I guess it could be airport workers? But what about Brooklyn and the Bronx and Staten Island? 

There's definitely something we're not understanding about risk factors here. Because, again, Manhattan is the iconic and extremely dense NY borough with tons of transit. 

Edited by square_25
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1 minute ago, Selkie said:

This makes me nervous because many Chicago people have second homes in my county, too. With the shelter-in-place order in effect for the past few weeks, they are not supposed to be traveling back and forth between their primary and secondary homes, but some of them are. Our local government and law enforcement are concerned and have been trying to get the governor's office to take action, but have gotten no response. 

Earlier in the thread there was a discussion based around skiing destinations in the US being really high.........hubby and I privately theorized an Italy tie in.  There could be a ski tie in with that part of Northern Michigan.   Going back and forth would be the worst.

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7 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

A lot of the harder hit areas are Orthodox Jewish areas, and I doubt they are traveling more than others. 

JFK is all near there, so I guess it could be airport workers? But what about Brooklyn and the Bronx and Staten Island? 

There's definitely something we're not understanding about risk factors here. Because, again, Manhattan is the iconic and extremely dense NY borough with tons of transit. 

 

The Haredi live so densely and met so frequently in groups that it doesn't take much for one traveler to spread an infection as we know from the measles last year...and they do travel frequently.  The authorities in  Orange and Rockland Counties are not publishing the data so that one can tell how many cases they represent, but in Orange the Dept of Health did state on the record last week that they were over 1/4, and that in the Town of Palm Tree.  Expect Sullivan County to have a wave soon as that's where the summer homes are. Look at the data from Israel too. 

No one is telling us stats on nursing homes either.

The risk factor is congregation without adequate sanitation or PPE. 

The other cases I'm hearing in NYC are returning traveler spread from Iran and italy.  Some of the first recovered people were featured in the NYT.

Edited by HeighHo
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4 minutes ago, HeighHo said:

 

The Haredi live so densely and met so frequently in groups that it doesn't take much for one traveler to spread an infection as we know from the measles last year...and they do travel frequently.  The authorities in  Orange and Rockland Counties are not publishing the data so that one can tell how many cases they represent, but in Orange the Dept of Health did state on the record last week that they were over 1/4, and that in the Town of Palm Tree.  Expect Sullivan County to have a wave soon as that's where the summer homes are. Look at the data from Israel too. 

No one is telling us stats on nursing homes either.

The risk factor is congregation without adequate sanitation or PPE. 

The other cases I'm hearing in NYC are returning traveler spread from Iran and italy.  Some of the first recovered people were featured in the NYT.

 

Yeah, and they aren't that tuned in to the outer world, so I don't think they started social distancing all that early (hence that 500 person wedding in Brooklyn.) 

I wonder if immigrant communities with larger families and tighter communal ties will be harder hit? 😕 

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According to worldometer, the confirmed cumulative positives worldwide is almost a million (999,805 when I just checked).

ETA: passed a million while I was posting 

Anyone know if Abbot Labs rapid tests have actually started to be used yet? I saw they shipped the first 150,000 out, but I have no idea when they will arrive. I'm hopeful that those will help increase testing in the US (which has stagnated at asbout 100,000/day).

Eta:  Looks like Detroit got some yesterday. And a county in New Jersey maybe already started?

I'm also hopeful for the serological antibody tests which are hopefully coming in April (and maybe scaled up by June?). 

Edited by RootAnn
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51 minutes ago, Arctic Mama said:

Yeah, I think there are multiple factors going on, and many reams of academic papers will be written exploring the whys.

That would be a super interesting project to be in. 

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4 hours ago, RootAnn said:

We weren't the only ones sounding the alarm in January--a US Senator tried to sound the alarm this was coming, but no one was ready to listen to him. https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/03/the-senator-who-saw-the-coronavirus-coming/

Coronavirus spreads through the air (this info is already known to most of us but I heard a county health official hem & haw on this one two days ago). https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/health/aerosol-coronavirus-spread-white-house-letter/index.html

Everything is not as straightforward as they seem in politics and international trade relationships. Which is why it might be puzzling to us as to why a bunch of people on an internet forum saw the writing on the wall months ago, but government and Intel agencies did not. The fact is that what the governments see is not what they talk about in public. There are so many factors playing into public stance on this virus and health decisions taken to protect citizens:

- Most Favored Nation Trade Status to China (so many advantages to both parties) which could get wrecked if fingers were pointed at China for hiding their death rates and aggravating China.

- Walmart, Target, Home Depot etc - the icons of American capitalism that totally depend on Made-in-China goods to stock their shelves. These corporations want their shelves stocked with just-in-time inventory with cost effective products and prohibiting travel to or from china to stop a virus is not helpful to the american public from that standpoint. Stock market impact of these corporations getting affected is also huge.

- "Supply Chain" has become an euphemism for pointing out that China controls what we consume and that if they stop sending us things, we are screwed.

- The communist party of China will not tolerate any country pointing fingers at it. Other countries criticizing them makes them look weak to their citizens and they do not want to lose their control on their people and they take deep offense at any country that points fingers at them. As an e.g. look at this strange english language article written by the mouthpiece of the chinese government which says that America is waging "immoral attack" on them, related to covid19: https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1178268.shtml

There are many more such reasons that I may not know about at all. But, I live in an area where there are thousands of chinese immigrants and a lot of them are dear friends, neighbors and coworkers. The sentiment amongst them is that China lies, all their politicians lie, how much they lie will vary from one politician to another, but the bottom line is that they lie because of the nature of their political system. Now, US intel sources are saying that China deceived us with lies about the extent of Covid-19 damage. My thoughts are that the casualty level of this virus in the US is so high that the Intel agencies are willing to admit what they know.  

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California vs NY:

No testing compared to NY, so I am not convinced that our numbers in CA are all that accurate, to be honest

Early closure of schools and lockdown in SF Bay Area counties/followed by statewide lockdown

Fresh fruit and veggies year round in CA, farmers markets open year round, very vegetarian-friendly culture

Lots of sunshine and casual dress year round for much of the state, warmer temps here that the virus doesn't seem to like

People are thinner than in most of the country (esp the midwest and the south) and are more concerned about body imagine/exercise

Much less people smoke out here compared to back east (and if people do smoke, it is MJ, which doesn't seem to kill you like nicotine)

Very spread out population who do not use public transpo (smog is not nearly as bad as it was in the 70s due to our strict enviro regs and tons of electric cars)

Most people live in single family homes vs apartments

Lots of Asians, who follow the rules of the govt vs Orthodox Jews who follow their own

Quality of healthcare is very good overall except in rural areas, which is a small % of the state population (excellent healthcare providers because people want to live here)

 

Edited by SeaConquest
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