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1 minute ago, Selkie said:

This makes me nervous because many Chicago people have second homes in my county, too. With the shelter-in-place order in effect for the past few weeks, they are not supposed to be traveling back and forth between their primary and secondary homes, but some of them are. Our local government and law enforcement are concerned and have been trying to get the governor's office to take action, but have gotten no response. 

Earlier in the thread there was a discussion based around skiing destinations in the US being really high.........hubby and I privately theorized an Italy tie in.  There could be a ski tie in with that part of Northern Michigan.   Going back and forth would be the worst.

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DS got home 3 hours ago!  ❤️❤️

That's not a blanket right.  If my religion required human sacrifice, I can't practice it.  If my religion required sexual assault, I can't practice it. Freedom of religion isn't a blanket right

Update-  my youngest is not only short of breath, coughing, dizzy, nausaues, and with headache-  she is also confused.  I called our doctor and talked with him and she is going to be going to the ER.

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7 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

A lot of the harder hit areas are Orthodox Jewish areas, and I doubt they are traveling more than others. 

JFK is all near there, so I guess it could be airport workers? But what about Brooklyn and the Bronx and Staten Island? 

There's definitely something we're not understanding about risk factors here. Because, again, Manhattan is the iconic and extremely dense NY borough with tons of transit. 

 

The Haredi live so densely and met so frequently in groups that it doesn't take much for one traveler to spread an infection as we know from the measles last year...and they do travel frequently.  The authorities in  Orange and Rockland Counties are not publishing the data so that one can tell how many cases they represent, but in Orange the Dept of Health did state on the record last week that they were over 1/4, and that in the Town of Palm Tree.  Expect Sullivan County to have a wave soon as that's where the summer homes are. Look at the data from Israel too. 

No one is telling us stats on nursing homes either.

The risk factor is congregation without adequate sanitation or PPE. 

The other cases I'm hearing in NYC are returning traveler spread from Iran and italy.  Some of the first recovered people were featured in the NYT.

Edited by HeighHo
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4 minutes ago, HeighHo said:

 

The Haredi live so densely and met so frequently in groups that it doesn't take much for one traveler to spread an infection as we know from the measles last year...and they do travel frequently.  The authorities in  Orange and Rockland Counties are not publishing the data so that one can tell how many cases they represent, but in Orange the Dept of Health did state on the record last week that they were over 1/4, and that in the Town of Palm Tree.  Expect Sullivan County to have a wave soon as that's where the summer homes are. Look at the data from Israel too. 

No one is telling us stats on nursing homes either.

The risk factor is congregation without adequate sanitation or PPE. 

The other cases I'm hearing in NYC are returning traveler spread from Iran and italy.  Some of the first recovered people were featured in the NYT.

 

Yeah, and they aren't that tuned in to the outer world, so I don't think they started social distancing all that early (hence that 500 person wedding in Brooklyn.) 

I wonder if immigrant communities with larger families and tighter communal ties will be harder hit? 😕 

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According to worldometer, the confirmed cumulative positives worldwide is almost a million (999,805 when I just checked).

ETA: passed a million while I was posting 

Anyone know if Abbot Labs rapid tests have actually started to be used yet? I saw they shipped the first 150,000 out, but I have no idea when they will arrive. I'm hopeful that those will help increase testing in the US (which has stagnated at asbout 100,000/day).

Eta:  Looks like Detroit got some yesterday. And a county in New Jersey maybe already started?

I'm also hopeful for the serological antibody tests which are hopefully coming in April (and maybe scaled up by June?). 

Edited by RootAnn
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51 minutes ago, Arctic Mama said:

Yeah, I think there are multiple factors going on, and many reams of academic papers will be written exploring the whys.

That would be a super interesting project to be in. 

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4 hours ago, RootAnn said:

We weren't the only ones sounding the alarm in January--a US Senator tried to sound the alarm this was coming, but no one was ready to listen to him. https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/03/the-senator-who-saw-the-coronavirus-coming/

Coronavirus spreads through the air (this info is already known to most of us but I heard a county health official hem & haw on this one two days ago). https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/health/aerosol-coronavirus-spread-white-house-letter/index.html

Everything is not as straightforward as they seem in politics and international trade relationships. Which is why it might be puzzling to us as to why a bunch of people on an internet forum saw the writing on the wall months ago, but government and Intel agencies did not. The fact is that what the governments see is not what they talk about in public. There are so many factors playing into public stance on this virus and health decisions taken to protect citizens:

- Most Favored Nation Trade Status to China (so many advantages to both parties) which could get wrecked if fingers were pointed at China for hiding their death rates and aggravating China.

- Walmart, Target, Home Depot etc - the icons of American capitalism that totally depend on Made-in-China goods to stock their shelves. These corporations want their shelves stocked with just-in-time inventory with cost effective products and prohibiting travel to or from china to stop a virus is not helpful to the american public from that standpoint. Stock market impact of these corporations getting affected is also huge.

- "Supply Chain" has become an euphemism for pointing out that China controls what we consume and that if they stop sending us things, we are screwed.

- The communist party of China will not tolerate any country pointing fingers at it. Other countries criticizing them makes them look weak to their citizens and they do not want to lose their control on their people and they take deep offense at any country that points fingers at them. As an e.g. look at this strange english language article written by the mouthpiece of the chinese government which says that America is waging "immoral attack" on them, related to covid19: https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1178268.shtml

There are many more such reasons that I may not know about at all. But, I live in an area where there are thousands of chinese immigrants and a lot of them are dear friends, neighbors and coworkers. The sentiment amongst them is that China lies, all their politicians lie, how much they lie will vary from one politician to another, but the bottom line is that they lie because of the nature of their political system. Now, US intel sources are saying that China deceived us with lies about the extent of Covid-19 damage. My thoughts are that the casualty level of this virus in the US is so high that the Intel agencies are willing to admit what they know.  

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California vs NY:

No testing compared to NY, so I am not convinced that our numbers in CA are all that accurate, to be honest

Early closure of schools and lockdown in SF Bay Area counties/followed by statewide lockdown

Fresh fruit and veggies year round in CA, farmers markets open year round, very vegetarian-friendly culture

Lots of sunshine and casual dress year round for much of the state, warmer temps here that the virus doesn't seem to like

People are thinner than in most of the country (esp the midwest and the south) and are more concerned about body imagine/exercise

Much less people smoke out here compared to back east (and if people do smoke, it is MJ, which doesn't seem to kill you like nicotine)

Very spread out population who do not use public transpo (smog is not nearly as bad as it was in the 70s due to our strict enviro regs and tons of electric cars)

Most people live in single family homes vs apartments

Lots of Asians, who follow the rules of the govt vs Orthodox Jews who follow their own

Quality of healthcare is very good overall except in rural areas, which is a small % of the state population (excellent healthcare providers because people want to live here)

 

Edited by SeaConquest
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The testing isn’t an issue in the death rates though, and that’s where there is a huge disparity. Population density accounts for a little of that but San Fran still is doing very well despite close quarters high density AND a massive homeless population.  Health behavior probably accounts for a fair bit, speed of shutdown, I think you hit on some of it, though.  
 

There are some communities that are major outliers, for sure.

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16 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

A lot of the harder hit areas are Orthodox Jewish areas, and I doubt they are traveling more than others. 

JFK is all near there, so I guess it could be airport workers? But what about Brooklyn and the Bronx and Staten Island? 

There's definitely something we're not understanding about risk factors here. Because, again, Manhattan is the iconic and extremely dense NY borough with tons of transit. 


Maybe culturally Manhattan is more isolated singles and more smaller families? 

Not as much of big huge extended family and religious gatherings? 

Maybe more Manhattan people got out to Long Island, Martha’s Vinyard, upstate, Vermont,  or wherever so it was left more empty ? 

Not much if any big “projects” apartments like in Flatbush etc? 

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5 minutes ago, SeaConquest said:

California vs NY:

No testing compared to NY, so I am not convinced that our numbers in CA are all that accurate, to be honest

 

Well, a much lower percentage of tests in CA are coming back positive, so I do think there's something there. It seems like there's less coronavirus in CA for real. Unless you're still testing a broader population? 

 

5 minutes ago, SeaConquest said:

Early closure of schools and lockdown in SF Bay Area counties/followed by statewide lockdown

 

I think our statewide lockdowns were on consecutive days. But yes, I really really wish they had gotten it together to close schools here one week earlier. 

 

5 minutes ago, SeaConquest said:

Fresh fruit and veggies year round in CA, farmers markets open year round, very vegetarian-friendly culture

Lots of sunshine and casual dress year round for much of the state, warmer temps here that the virus doesn't seem to like

People are thinner than in most of the country (esp the midwest and the south) and are more concerned about body imagine/exercise

Much less people smoke out here compared to back east (and if people do smoke, it is MJ, which doesn't seem to kill you like nicotine)

Very spread out population who do not use public transpo (smog is not nearly as bad as it was in the 70s due to our strict enviro regs and tons of electric cars)

Most people live in single family homes vs apartments

 

I think the harder hit borough of NY do have a lot of single family homes :-/. But yes, they are very FULL single family homes. 

 

5 minutes ago, SeaConquest said:

Lots of Asians, who follow the rules of the govt vs Orthodox Jews who follow their own

Quality of healthcare is very good overall except in rural areas, which is a small % of the state population (excellent healthcare providers because people want to live here)

 

Yeah, sigh. I wish Orthodox Jews did follow the rules of the government... 

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2 minutes ago, Arctic Mama said:

The testing isn’t an issue in the death rates though, and that’s where there is a huge disparity. Population density accounts for a little of that but San Fran still is doing very well despite close quarters high density AND a massive homeless population.  Health behavior probably accounts for a fair bit, speed of shutdown, I think you hit on some of it, though.  
 

There are some communities that are major outliers, for sure.

 

Newsom has moved our homeless population into hotels. It's been a very high priority for the government right away. And SF was very early on the lockdown.

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18 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

 

Eta:  Looks like Detroit got some yesterday. And a county in New Jersey maybe already started?

I'm also hopeful for the serological antibody tests which are hopefully coming in April (and maybe scaled up by June?). 

I read an article that Abbott Labs picked NJ for the tests.  I wonder if that's because Abbott has quite a few employees here.   I used to work for a company that was bought out by Abbott.

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Just now, Pen said:


Maybe culturally Manhattan is more isolated singles and more smaller families? 

Not as much of big huge extended family and religious gatherings? 

Maybe more Manhattan people got out to Long Island, Martha’s Vinyard, upstate, Vermont,  or wherever so it was left more empty ? 

Not much if any big “projects” apartments like in Flatbush etc? 

 

Yeah, I think you're right about about all of those. It's just interesting, because it makes you realize density may not be everything. Even with the richest people gone, I think Manhattan is still the densest borough. 

What I'm interested in is figuring out which areas are high risk right now, and it's really not clear. You'd think density would be the biggest driver, but then there's mixed signal. And aren't some of the Asian countries that are coping well high density? 

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2 minutes ago, SeaConquest said:

 

Newsom has moved our homeless population into hotels. It's been a very high priority for the government right away. And SF was very early on the lockdown.

 

Yeah, they got it right on the lockdown, unlike NY's beleaguered mayor, who didn't seem to want to take his health experts' advice, period... "But if we close schools, they may stay closed for a while!" is not a valid argument...

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5 minutes ago, maize said:

If breast pumps can be modified to use as respirators, what about CPAP/biPap machines?

 

They are planning to use BiPAP machines in NY, if they run out of ventilators, which they may within a week :-/. Or so says Cuomo on today's briefing. 

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12 minutes ago, Arctic Mama said:

The testing isn’t an issue in the death rates though, and that’s where there is a huge disparity. Population density accounts for a little of that but San Fran still is doing very well despite close quarters high density AND a massive homeless population.  Health behavior probably accounts for a fair bit, speed of shutdown, I think you hit on some of it, though.  
 

There are some communities that are major outliers, for sure.

If CA had more robust testing, it would likely make the disparity much bigger. 

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7 minutes ago, square_25 said:

. And aren't some of the Asian countries that are coping well high density? 

Asians are very accepting of mask culture even here in SF Bay Area. If Asia (e.g. China, Japan, South Korea) is infected, won’t that infection travel to SFO, LAX? So Asians here were wary once China sound the alarm in January. 

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Did anyone else notice a lot of swings in the Worldometer data this afternoon?  It had a couple states other than NY having over 200 new deaths each, and then they went back down.

I have noticed other large data swings too over the past week.

Is there a time of day when we can be more or less confident that the data is accurate?

Edited by SKL
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5 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

Asians are very accepting of mask culture even here in SF Bay Area. If Asia (e.g. China, Japan, South Korea) is infected, won’t that infection travel to SFO, LAX? So Asians here were wary once China sound the alarm in January. 

Yeah, I've seen it here, too. 

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5 hours ago, Bootsie said:

Yes, these are NEW claims being reported each week--so about 10 million new people in the past two weeks, with last week about twice as bad as the previous week.   

I just heard 750,000 people have applied for wage support in NZ.  With a population of 4.7 million, that is 16% of the TOTAL population. 

The labor force is 2.6 million, we are talking 29% currently on wage support.

This will grow because they have just opened up wage support to those in essential services who are either in the risk groups or living with someone in the risk groups. 

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7 minutes ago, SKL said:

Is there a time of day when we can be more or less confident that the data is accurate?

Many states are running a day behind on results, so, for example, Washington is now reporting yesterday's cases by 3 pm today. I don't believe "accurate" describes very many of the official numbers in terms of how many people have it.

In terms of tests, I'm not sure if all states are requiring private labs to report both their positive & negative numbers. And, there may still be some ambiguity about number of tests vs number of cases (where some people may be tested more than once).

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🙂 https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/04/02/bloom-energy-coronavirus-covid-19-ventilators-500-repairs/

“Since then, a company that knew nothing about ventilators has fixed more than 500 of them. It’s a transformation akin to World War II, when manufacturing behemoths used their assembly line expertise to make airplanes and tanks. Now, some companies are tapping their storehouses of brainpower to do the same thing with medical equipment.

...

But once the team got the ventilators hooked up to balloons, hearing the soft “woosh” of air as they expanded and contracted, Tavi said it went from being a machine to something much more personal.

“I would think about my mom or my uncle or a family member of a friend or a co-worker needing one of those machines,” he said. “We don’t view it as a number of units we are turning over. We view it as the maximum number of people we could potentially positively impact by having an extra ventilator that works. Even if it’s just one person.”

Bloom told KPIX 5 that it wants anyone with an old ventilator to contact them for information to send it in.“

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7 hours ago, square_25 said:

That’s what the numbers seem to look like early on for lots of countries :-/. None of them have stayed at that low percentage, so I would be surprised if you’re right. I’d guess around a percent is actually about right. Maybe a bit less.

So walk me through this.  Taking our case number from 7 days ago (300ish people), we currently have 16 in hospital (2 of which are in ICU) and 1 death. That means our rate is around 5% in hospital and 0.3% death (obviously, low sample size). How do these percentages go up over time?  Is 7 days not long enough?  So I need to take, for example, cases from 14 days ago and compare to hospital today?

I was assuming that because we have a positive test rate of 3%, it shows that we picking up a lot of cases that would never need to go to the hospital, so our rate is way lower than in other countries because our data is more accurate.  In addition, we have only been testing symptomatic people, so all asymptomatic people are excluded from the figures, so the numbers will be lower still when they are included. 

It seems to me the high rate of death currently being reported in many countries is due to 1) low testing so only counting people who have a severe case and end up in the hospital. 2) inability to treat everyone effectively because of an overwhelmed health system. 

 

Edited by lewelma
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🙂 🍕Manhattan, NY @TCB@square_25

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/national-international/pizzeria-makes-hundreds-of-free-pizzas-for-ny-hospitals-everyday-so-landlord-gives-free-rent/2266148/

“The owners and employees at one Manhattan pizza shop are making pies like their lives depended on it — because they know that other people's lives probably do.

All of the pizza getting made at Sauce Pizzeria — as many as 400 per day — are going straight to hospitals to feed health care workers pulling 14- or even 18-hour shifts as they remain on the front lines of the COVID-19 fight.

Many of those nurses, doctors, and other medical staffers are so swamped helping patients every single day, many don't have a moment to spare to grab something to eat.

...

Elzer got the idea to feed health care workers after a nurse friend told him she didn’t have time to eat lunch one day. Now Sauce is delivering from their East Village location to 40 different hospitals in all five boroughs — even as far north as Westchester. 

And all for free.

"Basically anywhere that we get a note from a nurse or a doctor telling us that they’re in need, we figure out a way to get them on the schedule and then we deliver to that hospital," Elzer said.

The inspirational giving doesn't stop there. When Elzer's landlord heard what he was doing at the pizza shop, he jumped into help — freezing rent payments for the next three months.

"I saw what Adam was doing on social media honestly and when we noticed what he was doing it was very clear that we needed to help him," said Ben Kraus of A&E Real Estate Management. The group also donated more than $20,000 to help Adam get more pizzas to more medical workers.

"We set up Adam with logistics to be able to deliver en mass to hospitals all over New York City," Krause said.

Elzer and Krause said they are hoping to inspire other businesses and landlords around the city and the country to do the same — a national effort to feed the people who are desperately trying to save us all.”

Edited by Arcadia
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2 hours ago, Matryoshka said:

Spain is scaring the bejeezus out of me.  Their death rate is so high compared to everyone else - and then I saw this article saying it looks like they're missing about half the actual deaths, based on retrospectives on normal deaths for this time of year compared to past years.

It's in Spanish (which I do read), but the charts alone give a graphic picture.  Yes, some of these deaths are likely because people are dying of something else but can't get the medical attention they'd get in other years - but that's still indirectly caused by the virus...  The blue line is average deaths, actual for this year goes up and down, as would be expected.. until mid-March.  The difference in red is between estimated deaths, added deaths officially from Coronavirus, and other 'extra' deaths with no current explanation.

image.png.33fa549fb45f59a8949311beb35ec18c.png

There is a similar article in Corriere from Italy saying in one village the deaths over and above the usual rate were 3x as high as the official coronavirus deaths.  It was based on a fairly small village/number though so I don’t know how widely applicable it would be.

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8 minutes ago, lewelma said:

So walk me through this.  Taking our case number from 7 days ago (300ish people), we currently have 16 in hospital (2 of which are in ICU) and 1 death. That means our rate is around 5% in hospital and 0.3% death (obviously, low sample size). How do these percentages go up over time?  Is 7 days not long enough?  So I need to take, for example, cases from 14 days ago and compare to hospital today?

I was assuming that because we have a positive test rate of 3%, it shows that we picking up a lot of cases that would never need to go to the hospital, so our rate is way lower than in other countries because our data is more accurate.  In addition, we have only been testing symptomatic people, so all asymptomatic people are excluded from the figures, so the numbers will be lower still when they are included. 

It seems to me the high rate of death currently being reported in many countries is due to 1) low testing so only counting people who have a severe case and end up in the hospital. 2) inability to treat everyone effectively because of an overwhelmed health system. 

 

Anecdotally a lot of people seemed to take a sudden turn for the worse at around 14 days.  Widespread testing tends to pick up more mild cases but it also picks up more cases very early in the piece before it gets severe.  And then from the diamond princess where the evacuation was 5-6 weeks ago still seems to have around 100 unresolved cases.

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50 minutes ago, maize said:

If breast pumps can be modified to use as respirators, what about CPAP/biPap machines?

I have seen mentioned they were using CPAP machines in Italy.

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4 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Anecdotally a lot of people seemed to take a sudden turn for the worse at around 14 days.  Widespread testing tends to pick up more mild cases but it also picks up more cases very early in the piece before it gets severe.  And then from the diamond princess where the evacuation was 5-6 weeks ago still seems to have around 100 unresolved cases.

Well, NZ had no community spread 14 days ago, and all cases were still from overseas travel.  So any calculations using that time period will make no sense.  I guess I will just have to wait 7 more days to redo the numbers. 

Currently our hospitals are only at half capacity because they cancelled all elective surgery last week.  We have a very low number of ICU beds per population compared to most other developed countries.  

Edited by lewelma
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18 hours ago, Arcadia said:

🙂 https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/04/02/bloom-energy-coronavirus-covid-19-ventilators-500-repairs/

“Since then, a company that knew nothing about ventilators has fixed more than 500 of them. It’s a transformation akin to World War II, when manufacturing behemoths used their assembly line expertise to make airplanes and tanks. Now, some companies are tapping their storehouses of brainpower to do the same thing with medical equipment.

...

But once the team got the ventilators hooked up to balloons, hearing the soft “woosh” of air as they expanded and contracted, Tavi said it went from being a machine to something much more personal.

“I would think about my mom or my uncle or a family member of a friend or a co-worker needing one of those machines,” he said. “We don’t view it as a number of units we are turning over. We view it as the maximum number of people we could potentially positively impact by having an extra ventilator that works. Even if it’s just one person.”

Bloom told KPIX 5 that it wants anyone with an old ventilator to contact them for information to send it in.“

Dh got his start working on Seimens vents. They had a recall and he had to drive around to a lot of CA hospitals and replace some parts. I tagged along and got to see San Francisco and the Naval base in SD.

I asked him awhile back why can't they store vents long term. He said whether it's a complicated vent like Siemens or the most basic, they all have plastic and rubber parts that degrade over time, like the elastic in old underwear. It wasn't a surprise to him that 170+ of the vents from the stockpile weren't working.

Most regular medical equipment reaches end of life after 10 years. No replacement parts. No support from the manufacturer. They usually get donated to other countries at that point. Life-saving equipment generally requires more maintenance than regular medical equipment. The idea of storing vents long term for a pandemic is a bit unrealistic. It's a great idea, but it could end up causing more problems than it is worth.

Edited by Plum
correction after talking to dh
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1 minute ago, Plum said:

I asked him awhile back why can't they store vents long term. He said whether it's a complicated vent like Siemens or the most basic, they all have plastic and rubber parts that degrade over time, like the elastic in old underwear. It wasn't a surprise to him that 170+ of the vents from the stockpile weren't working.

Most regular medical equipment reaches end of life after 10 years. No replacement parts. No support from the manufacturer. They usually get donated to other countries at that point. Life-saving equipment generally has a much shorter life span, some requiring replacement after only 3 years. The idea of storing vents long term for a pandemic is a bit unrealistic. It's a great idea, but it could end up causing more problems than it is worth.

That's super interesting, thank you. So then really the right plan is probably being vigilant and producing vents (or whatever happens to be the necessary medical equipment) when there's actually a pandemic. But that requires staying ahead of it. 

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Just now, J-rap said:

Here's some interesting news:

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/04/01/mayo-clinic-expects-covid19-antibody-test-to-be-ready-monday?fbclid=IwAR2-LTa3XWX_gZ8AuWq53HbayF8lA92-0TUUtHTwmj3tkmcJdbIvHUKiSrI

"Researchers at Mayo Clinic expect to release a test that would tell whether a person has had and recovered from COVID-19 on Monday."

Yay!  That would be so useful.

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15 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

And then from the diamond princess where the evacuation was 5-6 weeks ago still seems to have around 100 unresolved cases.

I'm getting a bit muddled comparing our data to the cruise ship. Can you explain our 92 recovered as of yesterday, with numbers 7 days ago of 283 cases, and 14 days ago of 28 cases?

Is it because 14 days ago cases were still all linked to overseas travel, so they were already into the incubation period, so the resolution is faster? My understanding is that 14 days ago, we had only 2 cases that were actually symptomatic on the planes (it made news).

Edited by lewelma
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7 minutes ago, J-rap said:

Here's some interesting news:

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/04/01/mayo-clinic-expects-covid19-antibody-test-to-be-ready-monday?fbclid=IwAR2-LTa3XWX_gZ8AuWq53HbayF8lA92-0TUUtHTwmj3tkmcJdbIvHUKiSrI

"Researchers at Mayo Clinic expect to release a test that would tell whether a person has had and recovered from COVID-19 on Monday."

Do you know if they are already running antibody tests elsewhere? I know they were talking about in NY, but I don't know if it's actually happening. 

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3 minutes ago, lewelma said:

I'm getting a bit muddled comparing our data to the cruise ship. Can you explain our 92 recovered as of yesterday, with numbers 7 days ago of 283 cases, and 14 days ago of 28 cases?

Is it because 14 days ago cases were still all linked to overseas travel, so they were already into the incubation period, so the resolution is faster? My understanding is that 14 days ago, we had only 2 cases that were actually symptomatic on the planes (it made news).

Hmmmm, I have no idea. What's the part you want explained? The numbers of recovered? 

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5 minutes ago, lewelma said:

I'm getting a bit muddled comparing our data to the cruise ship. Can you explain our 92 recovered as of yesterday, with numbers 7 days ago of 283 cases, and 14 days ago of 28 cases?

Is it because 14 days ago cases were still all linked to overseas travel, so they were already into the incubation period, so the resolution is faster? My understanding is that 14 days ago, we had only 2 cases that were actually symptomatic on the planes (it made news).

Hmm interesting?  Maybe it’s an age thing because the average cruise population is older and more heavily affected?

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32 minutes ago, lewelma said:

So walk me through this.  Taking our case number from 7 days ago (300ish people), we currently have 16 in hospital (2 of which are in ICU) and 1 death. That means our rate is around 5% in hospital and 0.3% death (obviously, low sample size). How do these percentages go up over time?  Is 7 days not long enough?  So I need to take, for example, cases from 14 days ago and compare to hospital today?

I was assuming that because we have a positive test rate of 3%, it shows that we picking up a lot of cases that would never need to go to the hospital, so our rate is way lower than in other countries because our data is more accurate.  In addition, we have only been testing symptomatic people, so all asymptomatic people are excluded from the figures, so the numbers will be lower still when they are included. 

It seems to me the high rate of death currently being reported in many countries is due to 1) low testing so only counting people who have a severe case and end up in the hospital. 2) inability to treat everyone effectively because of an overwhelmed health system. 

 

I think you do need about 14 days to get a sense of things. If you're not testing asymptomatic people, then you're not randomizing, right? So I don't know if it's that you have more valid numbers, or if it's that your cases haven't been in the vulnerable population yet. I know Germany had quite low numbers because it started in a bunch of young people. Do you have the age distribution for your positives? 

Edited by square_25
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11 minutes ago, lewelma said:

I'm getting a bit muddled comparing our data to the cruise ship. Can you explain our 92 recovered as of yesterday, with numbers 7 days ago of 283 cases, and 14 days ago of 28 cases?

Is it because 14 days ago cases were still all linked to overseas travel, so they were already into the incubation period, so the resolution is faster? My understanding is that 14 days ago, we had only 2 cases that were actually symptomatic on the planes (it made news).

https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/162/5/479/82647
 

This was posted re SARS not sars cov 2 but has some interesting math on calculating cfr and different calculation methods allowing for lead time etc.  It’s a bit over my head but will probably make more sense to you with science/math background.

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2 hours ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

A thought based on a bunch of posts (on NZ, Iceland, etc.).  It seems like island nations with strict protocols and high levels of testing are going to be the easiest when it comes to controlling an infectious disease like this.  But the question is - if/once they eradicate it in their countries how are they going to keep it from coming in again?  Ban all travel in and out of the country? 

Yup. I've already asked this question a few pages back.  I've been listening to the daily press briefings, and my understanding of the plan is that there is no plan B.  Eradication is the plan, and we will stay in lockdown until it happens. Then, they will reopen one region at a time and see how it goes, and lockdown again if the virus reappears. The borders will stay closed to visitors until there is a vaccine or some way to prove immunity - so we are talking 12 to 18 months. Testing throughout the community will continue to ensure the virus doesn't creep back in through shipping, as international shipping of goods will continue.  The economy will reopen minus tourism, which accounts for about 20% of our GDP.  So the plan is to retrain tourism workers to do infrastructure jobs. NZ citizens will be allowed to continue to return during the 12-18 month border closure, but will be quarantined for 14 days. 

So in about 6 - 8 weeks, eradication is expected, the national economy will restart, and the borders will stay closed.

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17 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

I think you do need about 14 days to get a sense of things. If you're not testing asymptomatic people, then you're not randomizing, right? So I don't know if it's that you have more valid numbers, or if it's that your cases haven't been in the vulnerable population yet. I know Germany had quite low numbers because it started in a bunch of young people. Do you have the age distribution for your positives? 

Ok, so 14 days.  Like a posted above, I'll have to wait then because we have more recoveries today (92) than cases 14 days ago (28), so the numbers won't work. 

We are not doing randomized tests -- all tests were from contact tracing and required (up until yesterday) that the person be both symptomatic and have contacts to infected person. So targeted testing for the purpose of controlling spread. 

Yes, age distribution numbers are here: https://thespinoff.co.nz/science/01-04-2020/covid-19-new-zealand-cases-mapped-and-charted-april-1/

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21 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Hmmmm, I have no idea. What's the part you want explained? The numbers of recovered? 

How can we have more recovered today than cases from 14 days ago? You only know someone is recovered if they were known to have it, so clearly they are recovering faster than 14 days. I'm unclear then why the rate should be deaths today compared to cases 14 days ago. Is it that healthy people are recovering faster,  and sick people take a long time? 

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1 hour ago, RootAnn said:

Many states are running a day behind on results, so, for example, Washington is now reporting yesterday's cases by 3 pm today. I don't believe "accurate" describes very many of the official numbers in terms of how many people have it.

In terms of tests, I'm not sure if all states are requiring private labs to report both their positive & negative numbers. And, there may still be some ambiguity about number of tests vs number of cases (where some people may be tested more than once).

Sorry, I misspoke.  I meant the number of deaths, not cases.

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