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gardenmom5

wuhan - coronavirus

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1 hour ago, Plum said:

Quoting myself because JAMALive answered my question. 
https://youtu.be/c7s3fS6RTlQ

 

That was very interesting. I think there are several things that make it difficult to know what to do:

1. The lack of good PPE has made it necessary to choose less risky therapies such as intubation over others such as NIV or HFNC to try and protect staff so we haven’t adequately tried some of these other less invasive therapies.

2. The fact that patients can deteriorate so quickly - we’ve seen this on my unit - means that we feel safer intubating earlier so we don’t let dangerous things happen.

A really interesting thing the professor in that podcast talked about was the difficulty of dealing with the crisis and caring for patients while also learning and developing new methods.

It’s really a very difficult situation and after hearing him talk it also hit home to me how long it may go on for.

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20 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

Air travel was reduced. Countries closed borders. The cruise ship industry of course do not like losing money but the first deaths from Diamond Princess’ coronavirus cases were reported on Feb 20th 😡
 

Quoted is from Jan 30th https://qz.com/1793858/wuhan-virus-borders-closed-airlines-cancel-china-flights/

“The US and Britain have issued travel warnings for China in light of the outbreak. Globally, more than a dozen airlines have suspended routes to mainland China. United Airlines cited a “significant decline in demand” for its move—China has quarantined over a dozen cities and barred overseas travel by tour groups. While some have cut flights for two weeks, in some cases the suspensions stretch until April.

...
Here’s a list of moves to restrict entry for Chinese nationals:

Mongolia: Closed China border crossings

Philippines: Halted visas on arrival for Chinese nationals

Hong Kong: Closing direct trains and ferries; closing some border crossings; Beijing to halt individual visitor permits starting Jan. 30

Kazakhstan: Closed all transport links and stopped visa issuance to Chinese nationals

Macau: Suspended individual visitors from mainland China; suspended ferries to Hong Kong

Nepal: Sealed border with China for two weeks from Jan. 29

North Korea: Closed its borders to all foreign tourists

Russia: Banned Chinese tour groups, closed Far Eastern borders; suspends e-visas for Chinese nationals

Taiwan: Barred entry to most Chinese nationals

Vietnam: Closed border crossing at Lao Cai to Chinese tourists; visas on arrival suspended for mainland China, Macau, and Hong Kong residents”

All of this had to do with travel in Asia.  At the time travel in South America was not considered risky. for COVID.   Diamond Princess was sailing in Asia and the initial incidence was tied to an Asian passenger.  I wouldn't get on a plane or go on a cruise to Asia on March 7, but I do not see how that is a warning that a cruise half-way around the word was that risky.  

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3 hours ago, BusyMom5 said:

I feel some sympathy for those on board the cruise ships... but sometimes stupid decisions have repercussions.  They boarded ships knowing it was a pandemic.  It isn't fair to dump them on port cities who are already going to be strained dealing with their own citizens.  Maybe if every country promised to move their citizens out within so many hours?  Whatever the solution,  it should be shared by the countries of the travelers and should not impact care to residents of the port cities.  

 

 

 

From what I've read, the majority of those ships don't have passengers, only crew, which means that the majority of the people we are talking about are employees.  They boarded those ships long ago, and faced a choice between losing both their source of income and their place of residence and continuing.  

I'd also love to know, and haven't seen, how many of those ships started their cruses from American ports.   I'm not sure that I buy the argument that the country where the ship is registered has more responsibility than the country where the ship sailed from.  Florida, and thus the U.S., has profited a great deal from the cruise industry.  It would seem we also have a responsibility to the people it serves.  

Having said that, I also think that we have a human responsibility.  Even if people made a stupid mistake, they're still people.  I think that judging some people "worthy" of saving in this crisis and other people not worthy is a very scary slippery slope.  I felt much more anger to the people who violated the law to attend church services, than to these people, but I wouldn't want them turned away from medical care if they acquire the virus.  I worry immensely about inmates in this country, who seem to me to be hugely at risk because of close living, and I certainly wouldn't expect our country to turn them away from medical care.  

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3 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

All of this had to do with travel in Asia.  At the time travel in South America was not considered risky. for COVID.   Diamond Princess was sailing in Asia and the initial incidence was tied to an Asian passenger.  I wouldn't get on a plane or go on a cruise to Asia on March 7, but I do not see how that is a warning that a cruise half-way around the word was that risky.  

 

Yeah. De Blasio staged a stunt riding the subway to make sure people didn't panic on, like, March 5th. People were NOT scared yet. 

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2 minutes ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

Having said that, I also think that we have a human responsibility.  Even if people made a stupid mistake, they're still people.  I think that judging some people "worthy" of saving in this crisis and other people not worthy is a very scary slippery slope.  I felt much more anger to the people who violated the law to attend church services, than to these people, but I wouldn't want them turned away from medical care if they acquire the virus.  I worry immensely about inmates in this country, who seem to me to be hugely at risk because of close living, and I certainly wouldn't expect our country to turn them away from medical care.  

 

Yeah, the idea that our country only helps those of us who make good decisions is really not an ethical one. 

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2 hours ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

People were calling for WHO to call it a pandemic long before that. 

Well as I said back then ... people don't know what or whom to believe thanks to a history of fake news from every outlet.  Skepticism is the natural first defense.  Now we have hindsight they didn't have then.

Again ... I would not have traveled, but I don't blame people for questioning if that is what happened. 

My sister took a cruise with her kids in late February.  She said that the cruise ship gave her many assurances about how they were going to make sure it was safe.  She believed them.  It turned out her cruise was safe.  If people had cruise tickets, they probably figured that as long as ships were allowed to sail, it was probably OK.

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1 minute ago, SKL said:

Well as I said back then ... people don't know what or whom to believe thanks to a history of fake news from every outlet.  Skepticism is the natural first defense.  Now we have hindsight they didn't have then.

Again ... I would not have traveled, but I don't blame people for questioning if that is what happened. 

My sister took a cruise with her kids in late February.  She said that the cruise ship gave her many assurances about how they were going to make sure it was safe.  She believed them.  It turned out her cruise was safe.  If people had cruise tickets, they probably figured that as long as ships were allowed to sail, it was probably OK.

Making it sound like false or misleading news stories are equally spread throughout all media is exactly the type of thinking that got us into this mess and will prolong the pain and suffering of all types.

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Just now, Frances said:

Making it sound like false or misleading news stories are equally spread throughout all media is exactly the type of thinking that got us into this mess and will prolong the pain and suffering of all types.

Unfortunately, this is probably too political. Not that I disagree with you. But perhaps best not discussed here. 

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and . . . .

 

Josie Wright, 33, was taken into custody for stealing the masks and other medical supplies from Bassett Medical Center in Cooperstown. 

 

  you know other people are doing it too at other locations.  (just like the guys price gouging in TN weren't the only ones - they just went public to whine about not being able to sell their $1 bottles of sanitizer for $70.)  disgusting people.

Edited by gardenmom5
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I have not read all of the responses in this thread so if this has previously been reported, please forgive me and delete this reply. It would be interesting to know what percentage of the  passengers aboard the Cruise ships that are trying to dock in Florida are U.S. Citizens or Green  Card holders.  It would also be interesting to know which countries those Cruise ships are registered  in.  If they are not registered in the USA (most of them are not)  they are not U.S. ships and they are not U.S. companies.

It isn't my usual source of news, but this NPR article has some interesting information about this issue and why they probably will not be allowed to dock in Florida. 

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/01/825205607/coast-guard-tells-cruise-ships-with-covid-19-cases-to-stay-away-from-u-s-ports

For example, if some of the ships are registered in the Bahamas, they should go to the Bahamas. Ships registered in Panama should go to Panama. Etc.

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1 minute ago, square_25 said:

I'm shocked. Shocked, I tell you. 

It is rather frustrating from the perspective that the experts here were responding based on the information they had but it was deliberately misconstrued.  One might think the public could have responded stronger and faster if the reporting was accurate, from the top tier down. 
 

When this sort of response is so directly predicated in data analysis and response it makes the, uh, incomplete reports all the more disturbing.  

Edited by Arctic Mama

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This is tangential, but please steer me to somewhere I can order a pulse oximeter and get it soon (in NC, USA). Everywhere appears to be out of stock (or price gouging--I see one on Amazon for a thousand dollars). After a couple of better days, I'm coughing more again and very tired.

UPDATE: Local pharmacy will deliver one tomorrow. Thanks.

Edited by whitehawk
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Just now, Arctic Mama said:

It is rather frustrating from the perspective that the experts here were responding based on the information they had but it was deliberately misconstrued.  One might think the public could have responded stronger and faster if the reporting was accurate, from the top tier down.  

 

Oh, I would think that the experts could have seen the writing on the wall, if people on this thread could have! They had a lot more information than we did. I don't buy the excuse. 

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Just now, whitehawk said:

This is tangential, but please steer me to somewhere I can order a pulse oximeter and get it soon (in NC, USA). Everywhere appears to be out of stock (or price gouging--I see one on Amazon for a thousand dollars). After a couple of better days, I'm coughing more again and very tired.

Thank you.

Have you asked at the pharmacy?  Or your local medical supply? Ours is still open, and they’d be most likely to have them on hand.

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1 minute ago, whitehawk said:

This is tangential, but please steer me to somewhere I can order a pulse oximeter and get it soon (in NC, USA). Everywhere appears to be out of stock (or price gouging--I see one on Amazon for a thousand dollars). After a couple of better days, I'm coughing more again and very tired.

Thank you.

I'm so sorry you're not feeling well :-/. Can you get in touch with a doctor virtually? 

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3 hours ago, Corraleno said:

I certainly understand the POV of those who don't want everyone unloaded in FL and overwhelming their healthcare system, but I also don't think its morally defensible to just leave thousands of people stranded on ships to survive or die without adequate care. I think they should at least let the Americans off and put them in quarantine, and find a way to let other countries get their own citizens home as well. 

 

Florida benefits financially from the cruise industry more than any other state.  The cruise industry contributes billions of dollars to the Florida economy. This helps build the infrastructure that Floridians enjoy.  I find it a bit disheartening that Florida wants cruise ships when it benefits them financially but not when there are health concerns.  

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someone brought up that in china the only people listed as dying from covi19 were those with zero preexisting conditions.  if they had a preexisting condition - that is listed as their cause of death.  it's how they list deaths.  I know different countries do have different policies on how they list deaths.

then they had to actually test someone - those that died without being tested were listed as something else.   Italy has said something similar - but they're upfront about it.  that people who die at home haven't been tested, and they'll probably never know the true number of deaths.

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50 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Is that the total number of bodies that required cremation in Wuhan from January through March?

Supposedly. But I do not trust this number. This number is downplayed by a lot! 

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54 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Is that the total number of bodies that required cremation in Wuhan from January through March?

Wuhan is ONE city in the province of Hubei.  Other cities across China were also locked down.  Every province had deaths - anyone saying everything was in Wuhan is either ignorant or lying.

I recently saw a report of relaxing restrictions in Wuhan, but maintaining them in adjacent cities - and the resulting riots by those residents.

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1 minute ago, gardenmom5 said:

someone brought up that in china the only people listed as dying from covi19 were those with zero preexisting conditions.  if they had a preexisting condition - that is listed as their cause of death.  it's how they list deaths.  I know different countries do have different policies on how they list deaths.

then they had to actually test someone - those that died without being tested were listed as something else.   Italy has said something similar - but they're upfront about it.  that people who die at home haven't been tested, and they'll probably never know the true number of deaths.

Many died at home (I heard 60% died at home and 40% at hospitals) because they were refused by overcrowded hospitals. Some died in the hospitals before there was time to test them. These two groups are NOT counted in the death number. China heavily covered up even the death number of tested patients. 

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5 minutes ago, Lanny said:

I have not read all of the responses in this thread so if this has previously been reported, please forgive me and delete this reply. It would be interesting to know what percentage of the  passengers aboard the Cruise ships that are trying to dock in Florida are U.S. Citizens or Green  Card holders.  It would also be interesting to know which countries those Cruise ships are registered  in.  If they are not registered in the USA (most of them are not)  they are not U.S. ships and they are not U.S. companies.

It isn't my usual source of news, but this NPR article has some interesting information about this issue and why they probably will not be allowed to dock in Florida. 

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/01/825205607/coast-guard-tells-cruise-ships-with-covid-19-cases-to-stay-away-from-u-s-ports

For example, if some of the ships are registered in the Bahamas, they should go to the Bahamas. Ships registered in Panama should go to Panama. Etc.

Our family has cruised several times. I knew the ships were always registered in other countries but never dreamed that could mean that we would not be allowed to dock in the USA. So typical with this entire pandemic - we keep learning how companies trying to save $ endanger everyone. 

I'm sure most of the passengers are American citizens. None of the crew are likely American citizens. 

One problem is that passengers are not required to have a passport to cruise. If those passengers dock outside of the US, they will have a very hard time getting back to the US without a passport. It is always recommended that you have a passport to cruise but not everyone gets them. 

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It really does seem like this thread on the Chat board of the WTM forum had more idea of what was going on than just about anyone and any country!

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Just now, TCB said:

It really does seem like this thread on the Chat board of the WTM forum had more idea of what was going on than just about anyone and any country!

Agree.  It looked out of scale for the first two weeks but increasingly I’d say our crazy crew was on top of the data better than 95% of the sources I’ve seen.  Even when reports changed or weren’t complete I would say it was faster to get much of the adjustments here than almost anywhere else online.

🏆 Top marks, ladies!

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Just now, TCB said:

It really does seem like this thread on the Chat board of the WTM forum had more idea of what was going on than just about anyone and any country!

dh mails with his nephews.  he shared some of the information on deaths in china that came up here.  one nephew attacked that information, and denigrated "homeschooling" moms.  (his prejudices are showing).  his wife is still a registered nurse in china, even though she's now living in the US, so as far as he was concerned she would know if that was correct (she hasn't worked in a hospital in china for several years).  I admit I was shocked that the other nephew actually found information backing up those claims and said "the homeschoolers" are right.

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2 minutes ago, Arctic Mama said:

Agree.  It looked out of scale for the first two weeks but increasingly I’d say our crazy crew was on top of the data better than 95% of the sources I’ve seen.  Even when reports changed or weren’t complete I would say it was faster to get much of the adjustments here than almost anywhere else online.

🏆 Top marks, ladies!

 

This has kind of made me want to figure out a way to influence events in the world more :-P. What's the point of having good judgment if you can't tell anyone about it? 😛

A lot of you were ahead of me, so even more so for the rest of you ;-). 

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5 minutes ago, TCB said:

It really does seem like this thread on the Chat board of the WTM forum had more idea of what was going on than just about anyone and any country!

I think there is some head in the sand by officials - afraid to shut things down/etc.   Sweden is still pretty much business as usual, there experts there begging for things to be closed as they're afraid of current conditions leading to a disaster there.

 

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21 minutes ago, Lanny said:

I have not read all of the responses in this thread so if this has previously been reported, please forgive me and delete this reply. It would be interesting to know what percentage of the  passengers aboard the Cruise ships that are trying to dock in Florida are U.S. Citizens or Green  Card holders.  It would also be interesting to know which countries those Cruise ships are registered  in.  If they are not registered in the USA (most of them are not)  they are not U.S. ships and they are not U.S. companies.

It isn't my usual source of news, but this NPR article has some interesting information about this issue and why they probably will not be allowed to dock in Florida. 

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/01/825205607/coast-guard-tells-cruise-ships-with-covid-19-cases-to-stay-away-from-u-s-ports

For example, if some of the ships are registered in the Bahamas, they should go to the Bahamas. Ships registered in Panama should go to Panama. Etc.

 

I think that is what the US Coast Guard wants also. 

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7 minutes ago, TCB said:

It really does seem like this thread on the Chat board of the WTM forum had more idea of what was going on than just about anyone and any country!

Yep!  This thread is why my family, my neighbor, my in-laws, and my parents were prepared long before the rush set in.  Right now, I’m waiting on my test to come back and instead of panicking like I would have if I relied on the media, I’m not really concerned, and definitely not panicked.  I do better knowing the facts.  Thanks to you all for sharing your knowledge with us. 

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5 minutes ago, TCB said:

It really does seem like this thread on the Chat board of the WTM forum had more idea of what was going on than just about anyone and any country!

 

I think that there was huge variation in how different people interpreted the news that came before the shut downs started.

I'm a teacher and I have a lot of teacher friends, and acquaintances from FB groups.  Most of these people are special educators. When the shut down happened, some of them had been practicing with their students for a week or more how to chat on google hangouts, how to access zoom.  They had sent home packets with games and math manipulatives and stuffed kids backpacks with books, not just on the day school closed but for days before.  My AAC (augmentative and alternative communication) groups had speech therapists talking about reaching out to parents whose kids didn't usually bring their devices home to make a plan so that no child would be without communication at home.  

And then there are other people I know, or whose comments I read online, who seem to think that the closing came out of nowhere.  I hear people saying things like "We didn't tell the kids to remember to take their glasses home, so I've got kids who won't be able to read till they get back to school in September."  Not because they forgot but because it didn't occur to them that the last day might be the last day.  

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3 minutes ago, gardenmom5 said:

I think there is some head in the sand by officials - afraid to shut things down/etc.   Sweden is still pretty much business as usual, there experts there begging for things to be closed as they're afraid of current conditions leading to a disaster there.

 

 

Sweden seemed to be doing an “experiment” which actually seemed useful since geography and probably human host conditions are reasonably parallel with Norway. 

Like with UK though, the keep things going and let CV19 run its course experiment seems not to be going well and size of gatherings allowed is being reduced, etc, — much as we saw elsewhere.   Population is not necessarily following along, but neither is USA or nor UK nor other places...   It seems like it’s a joke till it hits home closely enough. 

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5 minutes ago, JadeOrchidSong said:

Supposedly. But I do not trust this number. This number is downplayed by a lot! 

So that would be a total of 21,000 cremations for people who died of all causes (not just CV19) over a three month period in Wuhan. Yet there were more than 56,000 cremations in Wuhan in the last quarter of 2019, which was only slightly higher than stats for the last quarter of 2018. So the normal number of cremations one would expect in Wuhan in the first quarter of 2020 would be over 50,000 even without CV19. I guess if half the population fled the city and those who died of "normal" causes died elsewhere, that could explain some of the discrepancy. But it doesn't really make sense that there would be 30,000 fewer cremations than normal in Wuhan during a pandemic, so I wouldn't put much stock in those numbers either.

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5 minutes ago, Thatboyofmine said:

Yep!  This thread is why my family, my neighbor, my in-laws, and my parents were prepared long before the rush set in.  Right now, I’m waiting on my test to come back and instead of panicking like I would have if I relied on the media, I’m not really concerned, and definitely not panicked.  I do better knowing the facts.  Thanks to you all for sharing your knowledge with us. 

By late January we nearly called off our trip to SF  in early Feb to visit my parents. It was OBVIOUS then that this was going to be huge. 

The government has zero excuses. Full stop. 
 

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On 3/31/2020 at 11:03 AM, wilrunner said:

Millions of n95 masks already in the US continue to be sold to the highest foreign bidders while frontline healthcare workers here go without.
 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/daviddisalvo/2020/03/30/i-spent-a-day-in-the-coronavirus-driven-feeding-frenzy-of-n95-mask-sellers-and-buyers-and-this-is-what-i-learned/#74abf84156d4

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@Plum @TCB @SeaConquest @gardenmom5 At others who may know people in medical fields in hard hit areas...

If anyone knows anyone (or via 6 degrees of separation knows anyone) with confirmed CV19 who would be willing to try a cheap personal experiment with a homeopathic remedy, there are a few being promoted as possibly of help.

 I am skeptical that people who have supposedly been helped actually had CV19 in first place. However,  If a few conventional medical people with confirmed CV19 gave it a try and found it helpful, that would be good to know, even though still just anecdotal. I think at worst it would be a $10 or so investment in some sugar pills. 

From a known veterinarian who is into natural care of dogs and cats and is into homeopathy: 

https://m.facebook.com/rpitcairn/posts/10156865820331817

Another veterinarian who was sick, but did not have a test to confirm CV19, so it could just have been a bad cold found the Nux Vomica helpful.

 I think it needs, even if anecdotal, someone or several people with confirmed CV19 to give it a try.

 This in no way needs to mean Not doing anything else considered useful.

Though a homeopathic dose should probably be separated from anything else, including eating and brushing teeth by about 1/2 hour. 

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29 minutes ago, gardenmom5 said:

Wuhan is ONE city in the province of Hubei.  Other cities across China were also locked down.  Every province had deaths - anyone saying everything was in Wuhan is either ignorant or lying.

I recently saw a report of relaxing restrictions in Wuhan, but maintaining them in adjacent cities - and the resulting riots by those residents.

Yes I know Wuhan is just one city and every province had deaths. My point is that the posts and links to articles such s the one implying that millions of cancelled cell phone plans is proof that millions died of CV, or that deliveries of thousands of urns and reports of 20,000+ plus cremations in Wuhan suggest tens of thousands of CV deaths in Wuhan alone, ignore the fact that there would normally be around 3 million deaths in China, including 50,000+ in Wuhan, during this 3-month period even without CV19. I don't doubt that China is lying about the number of CV deaths, but none of the numbers that have been cited here are evidence that CV caused 20,000+ deaths in Wuhan or millions of deaths throughout China.

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21 minutes ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

And then there are other people I know, or whose comments I read online, who seem to think that the closing came out of nowhere.  I hear people saying things like "We didn't tell the kids to remember to take their glasses home, so I've got kids who won't be able to read till they get back to school in September."  Not because they forgot but because it didn't occur to them that the last day might be the last day.  

Parents aren't even allowed to go collect their children's belongings???  

I started following this thread when it started, and based on advice here started stocking up on pantry stuff (including toilet paper), making meal plans, and got a pulse oximeter in early to mid February.  My husband (who works at a hospital) thought I was seriously overreacting, but he recently said, "Thank God for your forum.  It's relieved so much of my stress knowing that we were more prepared.  Your forum was at least six weeks ahead of my hospital in terms of predictions and making preparations." 

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38 minutes ago, TCB said:

It really does seem like this thread on the Chat board of the WTM forum had more idea of what was going on than just about anyone and any country!

I've seen this repeatedly with the hive. Nothing this big has happened before, but you guys are far more reliable than the news, and typically way ahead as well.

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34 minutes ago, Arctic Mama said:

Agree.  It looked out of scale for the first two weeks but increasingly I’d say our crazy crew was on top of the data better than 95% of the sources I’ve seen.  Even when reports changed or weren’t complete I would say it was faster to get much of the adjustments here than almost anywhere else online.

🏆 Top marks, ladies!

 

36 minutes ago, TCB said:

It really does seem like this thread on the Chat board of the WTM forum had more idea of what was going on than just about anyone and any country!

 

One of my adult sons has told me TWICE now that I was right in predicting how bad things would get and how we needed to be prepared.  I never hear that I'm right from him!  In this case, I wish I wasn't though...

This thread really helped me and my family prepare.  A big thanks to all of you who contributed.  

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19 minutes ago, Frances said:

Millions of n95 masks already in the US continue to be sold to the highest foreign bidders while frontline healthcare workers here go without.
 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/daviddisalvo/2020/03/30/i-spent-a-day-in-the-coronavirus-driven-feeding-frenzy-of-n95-mask-sellers-and-buyers-and-this-is-what-i-learned/#74abf84156d4

 

Horrifying.

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1 minute ago, Kassia said:

This thread really helped me and my family prepare.  A big thanks to all of you who contributed.  

Yes. I have loved ones all across the US and having people say things like "TP is low in this state" has been exponentially helpful.

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This forum works like I think NASA did in the 1950s/1960s: curious people from varied backgrounds bringing information from diverse sources, sifting it, criticizing inconsistencies or dubious conclusions, bouncing hypotheses off each other... it's not surprising that it would work better than the straight line of single source to journalist to news consumer.

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30 minutes ago, MEmama said:

By late January we nearly called off our trip to SF  in early Feb to visit my parents. It was OBVIOUS then that this was going to be huge. 

The government has zero excuses. Full stop. 
 

Yeah, and we went overseas in March.  Hubby didn't think it was a big deal and he was a doc.  So yeah, a lot of people didn't know or understand.  

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16 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Yes I know Wuhan is just one city and every province had deaths. My point is that the posts and links to articles such s the one implying that millions of cancelled cell phone plans is proof that millions died of CV, or that deliveries of thousands of urns and reports of 20,000+ plus cremations in Wuhan suggest tens of thousands of CV deaths in Wuhan alone, ignore the fact that there would normally be around 3 million deaths in China, including 50,000+ in Wuhan, during this 3-month period even without CV19. I don't doubt that China is lying about the number of CV deaths, but none of the numbers that have been cited here are evidence that CV caused 20,000+ deaths in Wuhan or millions of deaths throughout China.

 

Yeah, I agree -- the evidence is extremely noisy. The problem with having a country flat-out lie is that it encourages, nay, almost requires conspiracy theories...

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Do you think 1 million official confirmed cases number will be reached today?

Or tomorrow?

 

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2 minutes ago, Pen said:

Do you think 1 million official confirmed cases number will be reached today?

Or tomorrow?

 

Well, soon, anyway :-/. Tomorrow, probably. 

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You know, I find it vaguely comforting to watch the numbers -- it feels like if I know things, I'm more in control. (I'm sure it's illusory, but there it is.) 

And then I think about it and realize I don't really know anything. China's numbers are lies. Iran's numbers are lies. Lots of European numbers are serious underestimates because they don't record deaths due to other conditions/deaths at home/don't test at autopsy/whatever. We will probably never see anything like the correct numbers for India or Africa, because they do not have the ability to collect them. 

And then I get even more scared and feel even more powerless than I already do. 

Edited by square_25
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1 hour ago, Arctic Mama said:

It is rather frustrating from the perspective that the experts here were responding based on the information they had but it was deliberately misconstrued.  One might think the public could have responded stronger and faster if the reporting was accurate, from the top tier down. 
 

When this sort of response is so directly predicated in data analysis and response it makes the, uh, incomplete reports all the more disturbing.  

Yes.  I had hoped they would look at what China was doing not just what they were saying. I also think that WHO maintaining the figures were accurate was a huge problem.  Having said that there were plenty of experts warning about this a while back.  

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