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2 hours ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

A thought based on a bunch of posts (on NZ, Iceland, etc.).  It seems like island nations with strict protocols and high levels of testing are going to be the easiest when it comes to controlling an infectious disease like this.  But the question is - if/once they eradicate it in their countries how are they going to keep it from coming in again?  Ban all travel in and out of the country? 

Yup. I've already asked this question a few pages back.  I've been listening to the daily press briefings, and my understanding of the plan is that there is no plan B.  Eradication is the plan, and we will stay in lockdown until it happens. Then, they will reopen one region at a time and see how it goes, and lockdown again if the virus reappears. The borders will stay closed to visitors until there is a vaccine or some way to prove immunity - so we are talking 12 to 18 months. Testing throughout the community will continue to ensure the virus doesn't creep back in through shipping, as international shipping of goods will continue.  The economy will reopen minus tourism, which accounts for about 20% of our GDP.  So the plan is to retrain tourism workers to do infrastructure jobs. NZ citizens will be allowed to continue to return during the 12-18 month border closure, but will be quarantined for 14 days. 

So in about 6 - 8 weeks, eradication is expected, the national economy will restart, and the borders will stay closed.

Edited by lewelma
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DS got home 3 hours ago!  ❤️❤️

Update-  my youngest is not only short of breath, coughing, dizzy, nausaues, and with headache-  she is also confused.  I called our doctor and talked with him and she is going to be going to the ER.

That's not a blanket right.  If my religion required human sacrifice, I can't practice it.  If my religion required sexual assault, I can't practice it. Freedom of religion isn't a blanket right

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17 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

I think you do need about 14 days to get a sense of things. If you're not testing asymptomatic people, then you're not randomizing, right? So I don't know if it's that you have more valid numbers, or if it's that your cases haven't been in the vulnerable population yet. I know Germany had quite low numbers because it started in a bunch of young people. Do you have the age distribution for your positives? 

Ok, so 14 days.  Like a posted above, I'll have to wait then because we have more recoveries today (92) than cases 14 days ago (28), so the numbers won't work. 

We are not doing randomized tests -- all tests were from contact tracing and required (up until yesterday) that the person be both symptomatic and have contacts to infected person. So targeted testing for the purpose of controlling spread. 

Yes, age distribution numbers are here: https://thespinoff.co.nz/science/01-04-2020/covid-19-new-zealand-cases-mapped-and-charted-april-1/

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21 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Hmmmm, I have no idea. What's the part you want explained? The numbers of recovered? 

How can we have more recovered today than cases from 14 days ago? You only know someone is recovered if they were known to have it, so clearly they are recovering faster than 14 days. I'm unclear then why the rate should be deaths today compared to cases 14 days ago. Is it that healthy people are recovering faster,  and sick people take a long time? 

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1 hour ago, RootAnn said:

Many states are running a day behind on results, so, for example, Washington is now reporting yesterday's cases by 3 pm today. I don't believe "accurate" describes very many of the official numbers in terms of how many people have it.

In terms of tests, I'm not sure if all states are requiring private labs to report both their positive & negative numbers. And, there may still be some ambiguity about number of tests vs number of cases (where some people may be tested more than once).

Sorry, I misspoke.  I meant the number of deaths, not cases.

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20 minutes ago, lewelma said:

Well, NZ had no community spread 14 days ago, and all cases were still from overseas travel.  So any calculations using that time period will make no sense.  I guess I will just have to wait 7 more days to redo the numbers. 

Currently our hospitals are only at half capacity because they cancelled all elective surgery last week.  We have a very low number of ICU beds per population compared to most other developed countries.  

 

Because NZ is likely going to have caught things before significant community spread,  it is probably going to have amazingly good outcomes.  It is still probably well with in ability to do superb contact tracing and really find *every* case and eradicate. 

Without overwhelmed hospitals, I think you can also expect fewest deaths possible in circumstances. Especially if it did not get loose in a hospital or nursing home I expect you will have few deaths.

43 minutes ago, lewelma said:

So walk me through this.  Taking our case number from 7 days ago (300ish people), we currently have 16 in hospital (2 of which are in ICU) and 1 death. That means our rate is around 5% in hospital and 0.3% death (obviously, low sample size). How do these percentages go up over time?  Is 7 days not long enough?  So I need to take, for example, cases from 14 days ago and compare to hospital today?

 

 

I think at this point you are in biological, not mathematical realm. 

Both ICU cases could get better, both could die, or one each way. Currently hospitalized cases could all get better, or could some of them get worse and become ICU cases, some could die quite suddenly, some after more drawn out illness... 

so again I think your circumstances will likely give you best that is possible, but what that is is unknown now.

Spread or asymptomatic carriers or PPE failures in hospital or accidents with carrying out perfect protocol in PPE and aerosol spread procedures could make things turn out worse than it now seems likely to turn out.  

Even if the country official CFR percent looks high, if actual deaths stay in single digits, I think that’s a huge NZ victory! 

One would surely not want to add to totalcases in order to get a better looking CFR number.

 

 

43 minutes ago, lewelma said:

I was assuming that because we have a positive test rate of 3%, it shows that we picking up a lot of cases that would never need to go to the hospital, so our rate is way lower than in other countries because our data is more accurate.  In addition, we have only been testing symptomatic people, so all asymptomatic people are excluded from the figures, so the numbers will be lower still when they are included. 

It seems to me the high rate of death currently being reported in many countries is due to 1) low testing so only counting people who have a severe case and end up in the hospital. 2) inability to treat everyone effectively because of an overwhelmed health system. 

 

 

If NZ gets high CFR it may be a statistical issue due to low total cases, so 3 deaths could give really high CFR, but is irl wonderful!

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3 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

Hmmm, definitely oversampled on the 20-29 year olds, then. That could be part of it. And of course, there could be skewing towards healthy people, if it was from people who were traveling. 

 

Hadn't thought of that.  Yes, all early cases were linked to international travel, so yes a healthier subset of the population.  Thanks!

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7 minutes ago, lewelma said:

How can we have more recovered today than cases from 14 days ago? You only know someone is recovered if they were known to have it, so clearly they are recovering faster than 14 days.

Test results are not immediate where I am and also in my country of origin. Turnaround time for test results are getting faster though. Some mild cases were also tested after they already have symptoms for a week. 

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Another thought, we asked all people over 70 to self isolate 6 days before the full lockdown started.  So when our numbers were at 39.  So we may actually have kept them safe from the beginning. 

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New study on the hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin combo shows no benefit:

On Saturday, the F.D.A. approved hydroxychloroquine and a related medication, chloroquine, for emergency use. Advocates for the cocktail argue that desperate diseases require desperate measures. But a study published on Tuesday, led by Jean-Michel Molina, an infectious-diseases expert at Hôpital Saint-Louis, in Paris, reports that, when prescribed in the same regimen as was followed in Marseille, the cocktail shows no benefit. This should give us serious pause before we rush into widespread use of prescription medications for sars-CoV-2 and covid-19. These drugs can have serious side effects, particularly in people most vulnerable to the virus: the elderly and those with heart problems.

 

link to the NYer article

Link to original study 

Edited by Corraleno
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1 minute ago, Arcadia said:

Test results are not immediate where I am and also in my country of origin. Turnaround time for test results are getting faster though. Some mild cases were also tested after they already have symptoms for a week. 

Interesting.  We were testing people coming off the planes and turn around was 48 hours.  So not the same situation. 

Our lower hospitalization numbers could be due to those two things described above: international travel (so healthier subset) and locking down the seniors before community spread began. It will be interesting to see how bad our numbers get, crossing fingers that they don't! 

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1 minute ago, lewelma said:

Interesting.  We were testing people coming off the planes and turn around was 48 hours.  So not the same situation. 

Our lower hospitalization numbers could be due to those two things described above: international travel (so healthier subset) and locking down the seniors before community spread began. It will be interesting to see how bad our numbers get, crossing fingers that they don't! 

Also potentially coming off summer and higher vit d levels?  No guarantees of course but may help.  

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56 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

🙂 🍕Manhattan, NY @TCB@square_25

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/national-international/pizzeria-makes-hundreds-of-free-pizzas-for-ny-hospitals-everyday-so-landlord-gives-free-rent/2266148/

“The owners and employees at one Manhattan pizza shop are making pies like their lives depended on it — because they know that other people's lives probably do.

All of the pizza getting made at Sauce Pizzeria — as many as 400 per day — are going straight to hospitals to feed health care workers pulling 14- or even 18-hour shifts as they remain on the front lines of the COVID-19 fight.

Many of those nurses, doctors, and other medical staffers are so swamped helping patients every single day, many don't have a moment to spare to grab something to eat.

...

Elzer got the idea to feed health care workers after a nurse friend told him she didn’t have time to eat lunch one day. Now Sauce is delivering from their East Village location to 40 different hospitals in all five boroughs — even as far north as Westchester. 

And all for free.

"Basically anywhere that we get a note from a nurse or a doctor telling us that they’re in need, we figure out a way to get them on the schedule and then we deliver to that hospital," Elzer said.

The inspirational giving doesn't stop there. When Elzer's landlord heard what he was doing at the pizza shop, he jumped into help — freezing rent payments for the next three months.

"I saw what Adam was doing on social media honestly and when we noticed what he was doing it was very clear that we needed to help him," said Ben Kraus of A&E Real Estate Management. The group also donated more than $20,000 to help Adam get more pizzas to more medical workers.

"We set up Adam with logistics to be able to deliver en mass to hospitals all over New York City," Krause said.

Elzer and Krause said they are hoping to inspire other businesses and landlords around the city and the country to do the same — a national effort to feed the people who are desperately trying to save us all.”

Pizza is such a good food for these situations. Doesn't even matter if it gets cold. We have days at work in ICU anyway when it's too busy to eat and the ICU dr on call will buy pizza for everyone so they can at least grab it as they go by. I can imagine it is great in these circumstances. What a great way for this guy to help. I read an account by a dr in NY and he mentioned working long hours and only being able to grab pizza now and again - wonder if it was from this pizza place? It is really heart warming to see everyone helping each other like they are!

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5 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:


Yep. YOU GET A MASK! You get a mask! everybody gets a mask!! The Chinese may have lied about a number of things but their citizens, even the kids now allowed out, are still required to wear masks. I always watch what they *DO* not what they say.

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10 minutes ago, Sneezyone said:


Yep. YOU GET A MASK! You get a mask! everybody gets a mask!! The Chinese may have lied about a number of things but their citizens, even the kids now allowed out, are still required to wear masks. I always watch what they *DO* not what they say.

People here are also watching the body language of politicians and county health officials when they give press conferences. 

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1 hour ago, square_25 said:

Do you know if they are already running antibody tests elsewhere? I know they were talking about in NY, but I don't know if it's actually happening. 

I haven't heard of any other being this close to actually being useful.

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3 hours ago, mumto2 said:

Oakland County Mi has numbers has numbers almost as large as Wayne(Detroit).  I lived there for years.......Oakland is the exact opposite of Wayne in terms of demographics.  The very  Wealthy combined with middle class.  Large lots, nice houses, healthy life styles..........they are being hit possibly harder than Detroit........Both sitting right under 2000 cases with Oakland having more deaths......very possibly Oakland has more elderly, but don’t know.   Northern Michigan areas with a large number of second homes, primarily SE Mi and Chicago are are rising quickly.  People fled there and brought it with them....my extended family is there.  Second death in Traverse City today.  Politically some odd decisions like banning treatment with hydrocorzone treatment which just got reversed last night.  SE Michigan is hurting........scared for Northern Michigan because the hospitals are not meant for numbers of critically ill, TC is probably it.

I currently live in Oakland county.  Yes there are the super wealthy and upper middle class, but you also have areas bordering Detroit and Pontiac that would not be considered wealthy.  Areas like Oak Park are mostly Orthodox Jewish and West Bloomfield is less Orthodox, but both with ties to New York.  The other thing to consider with the numbers is the City of Detroit has its own health department and reports its own numbers.  So the 2858 cases and 101 deaths in Detroit is for a population of 675,000.  Wayne County is showing 2221 cases and 93 deaths.  I believe Wayne County minus Detroit is about 1,100,000 population.  Oakland County has 2183 cases and 119 deaths with a population of 1,250,00.  Looking at cases by zip code the highest rates are in Southfield and Oak Park.

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2 hours ago, lewelma said:

 We are not doing randomized tests -- all tests were from contact tracing and required (up until yesterday) that the person be both symptomatic and have contacts to infected person. So targeted testing for the purpose of controlling spread. 

If tests only went to people with travel & contact up until now, it is possible there is community spread (mild) cases that haven't shown up. Unlikely in NZ's case, but possible.

2 hours ago, lewelma said:

How can we have more recovered today than cases from 14 days ago? You only know someone is recovered if they were known to have it, so clearly they are recovering faster than 14 days. I'm unclear then why the rate should be deaths today compared to cases 14 days ago. Is it that healthy people are recovering faster,  and sick people take a long time? 

Like @Arcadia said, they could have tested them after the person had already been positive for a week. I'm assuming "recovered" means testing negative at least twice, but I'm unsure what the procedure is for NZ. China found some people (small percentage) tested negative twice and then tested positive again. Not sure how many might have been false negatives, false positives, reinfection, sampling error, contamination in the testing lab, or something else. 

It does seem like some cases resolve quickly (for better or worse) while some can take 30 days to die. 

1 hour ago, J-rap said:

I haven't heard of any other being this close to actually being useful.

The COVID tracking Project that I mentioned previously has a link to more information about vendors trying to develop the antibody tests. Here is their tweet with a lot of diffetent info: https://mobile.twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1245753521791741953

Here is a link to their knowledge base about antibody testing: https://airtable.com/shrGVEvpWp12RyLAI/tbl4Odk31um8HYSND/viw6ZTA41rEgliH5O?blocks=hide

Quote

Many more vendors have notified the FDA that they have validated their tests; expand the "Q: What serology tests..." header at

https://fda.gov/medical-devices/emergency-situations-medical-devices/faqs-diagnostic-testing-sars-cov-2#offeringtests to see the full list.

Edited by RootAnn
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I keep thinking about the 21 million cell phone cancellations, so might as well just say it. Besides the other reasons given for cancelled numbers, I wonder if some are cancelled due to being whistleblowers. For a while, we were *impressed* by how much the gov was allowing criticism on Chinese social media (yes, a lot was deleted, but a lot made it through). Cancelling someone's number is a huge punishment, since really nothing can be done without a cell phone...

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Here is one example of someone who provided blood samples (which were negative) for one of the antibody tests being developed.

https://mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1243643016956366848

A thread about having my #COVID19 test and serology today (all in 1) from blood in ~15 minutes. Picture of my sample which put on a dedicated chip and optically analyzed for coronavirus proteins and antibodies vs controls. 

This was at Genalyte, a SanDiego company which has been doing immunoassays on such chips for several years, now adapted to #COVID19 in past 2 weeks. This can be displayed in real-time as the assays are in progress.

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Acting U.S. Navy Secretary Thomas Modly said Captain Brett Crozier exercised poor judgement in writing the letter about coronavirus outbreak on USS Theodore Roosevelt and has been removed from command https://reut.rs/2R7hwUk

What do the hive think about this?

Edited by Ausmumof3
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3 minutes ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

 

I think that anything is a possibility with that government.  But I also had to note that in the article, it said that China had a certain number of phones.  I can't remember how many, but it was more than 100 million more phones than it has people.  And I assume the "everyone has to have a phone" thing doesn't apply to babies and toddlers.  Which means that there were a lot of people with more than one phone, maybe because of work reasons, or as the article said because they lived in one place and worked in another.  

That makes me wonder if the "you can't cancel a cell phone" rule applies if you have multiple phones, and how many of those second or third phones were employment rated and may have been cancelled due to an economic crisis.  

I have also seen it jokingly said that it’s all the men cancelling the “secret wife’s” phones because it’s not worth paying when you can’t see her anyway.  

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1 minute ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I have also seen it jokingly said that it’s all the men cancelling the “secret wife’s” phones because it’s not worth paying when you can’t see her anyway.  

The long running gossip is that Hongkongers’ “concubines” are in Shenzhen. 

5 minutes ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

 

I think that anything is a possibility with that government.  But I also had to note that in the article, it said that China had a certain number of phones.  I can't remember how many, but it was more than 100 million more phones than it has people.  And I assume the "everyone has to have a phone" thing doesn't apply to babies and toddlers.  Which means that there were a lot of people with more than one phone, maybe because of work reasons, or as the article said because they lived in one place and worked in another.  

China has SIM cards for tourists, just like US and Australia. 

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32 minutes ago, Renai said:

I keep thinking about the 21 million cell phone cancellations, so might as well just say it. Besides the other reasons given for cancelled numbers, I wonder if some are cancelled due to being whistleblowers. 

I wondered if some of them were how the citizen journalists were getting the word out about what was going on via an extra phone & those were being tracked down & shut off.

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@mathnerd SF Bay Area

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/04/02/coronavirus-update-bay-area-health-officials-recommend-covering-face-when-leaving-home/

REDWOOD CITY (CBS SF) — Marking a shift in previous instructions, Bay Area health officials on Thursday started recommending residents cover their nose and mouth with cloth when leaving home for essential travel such as doctor appointments and grocery shopping.

The regional recommendation was made in alignment with new guidance from the California Department of Public Health.

The joint release by Bay Area health departments noted the face coverings do not have to be hospital grade but need to cover the nose and mouth. For example, bandanas, fabric masks and neck gaiters are acceptable.

...

Health officials do not recommend that the public use medical masks (N-95 or surgical masks), which are in limited supply and must be preserved for our health care workers andfirst responders.

Previously, local officials were not recommending the large-scale use of face coverings, but circumstances have changed.

“In addition to shelter-in-place and social distancing requirements, wearing a mask in public is an important tool to stop the community spread of this disease,” said San Mateo County Health Officer Dr. Scott Morrow. “People with no visible symptoms or mild symptoms may have coronavirus and not know it. Wearing face coverings helps protect others from exposure.””

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40 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Acting U.S. Navy Secretary Thomas Modly said Captain Brett Crozier exercised poor judgement in writing the letter about coronavirus outbreak on USS Theodore Roosevelt and has been removed from command https://reut.rs/2R7hwUk

What do the hive think about this?

 

I am pissed beyond measure. I cannot say that in my public capacity as a Navy O spouse but...yeah...we all know he got screwed. He didn't leak the letter. Someone else did. He's being punished for having too broad a distribution list. He's going to pay the price for someone else's cowardice. God bless him. Sailors will live as a result.

Edited by Sneezyone
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This horse auction was allowed to happen today in Iowa. Hundreds of people from several states attended, most of them Amish. 

https://www.kcci.com/article/hundreds-attend-horse-auction-despite-covid-19-concerns/32020446

Gov. Kim Reynolds said Wednesday livestock auctions are exempt from social gathering guidelines because they are part of the food chain supply.

😡

 

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2 hours ago, Mom2mthj said:

I currently live in Oakland county.  Yes there are the super wealthy and upper middle class, but you also have areas bordering Detroit and Pontiac that would not be considered wealthy.  Areas like Oak Park are mostly Orthodox Jewish and West Bloomfield is less Orthodox, but both with ties to New York.  The other thing to consider with the numbers is the City of Detroit has its own health department and reports its own numbers.  So the 2858 cases and 101 deaths in Detroit is for a population of 675,000.  Wayne County is showing 2221 cases and 93 deaths.  I believe Wayne County minus Detroit is about 1,100,000 population.  Oakland County has 2183 cases and 119 deaths with a population of 1,250,00.  Looking at cases by zip code the highest rates are in Southfield and Oak Park.

Thanks, I missed the separation of Wayne and Detroit when I glanced at the numbers.  I also forgot about Pontiac and realized it after I had turned things off for a couple hours was planning to come back and amend.  We lived close to Pontiac and I think I didn’t think of it  because I was so used to it as I worked there for years.  Interesting regarding the Southfield and Oak Park having the highest numbers.  I hadn’t thought about the Orthodox ties with New York in those communities.  Hubby grew up in Southfield..   

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19 hours ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

?  Jigsaw, puzzle and jigsaw puzzle are used interchangeably. 

I’ve never in my life just called it a jigsaw.  I’m sure it’s a regional thing.

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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Acting U.S. Navy Secretary Thomas Modly said Captain Brett Crozier exercised poor judgement in writing the letter about coronavirus outbreak on USS Theodore Roosevelt and has been removed from command https://reut.rs/2R7hwUk

What do the hive think about this?

Appalling, but I think it might be violating the no politics on the board.  

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29 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Bno:  Brazil has determined that a woman who died on January 23 was infected with coronavirus, more than a month before South America's first confirmed case - G1

I think it’s been in some of these areas much longer than testing has shown so far, just because the deaths would look like almost any other viral death in flu season 😞

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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Acting U.S. Navy Secretary Thomas Modly said Captain Brett Crozier exercised poor judgement in writing the letter about coronavirus outbreak on USS Theodore Roosevelt and has been removed from command https://reut.rs/2R7hwUk

What do the hive think about this?

Sounds like he didn't go up the chain of command, and didn't safeguard his email from being leaked, even if he didn't leak it himself.  I don't see how he WOULD'T have been relieved of command, honestly.  

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5 hours ago, SanDiegoMom in VA said:

Sounds like he didn't go up the chain of command, and didn't safeguard his email from being leaked, even if he didn't leak it himself.  I don't see how he WOULD'T have been relieved of command, honestly.  

The article specifically says that he did send it up the chain of command, but Modly felt he did not do enough to prevent recipients from possibly leaking it, which "raised alarm bells unnecessarily," and that's why he was relieved of command. There are over 100 sailors on the ship infected with CV — sounds to me like alarm bells are pretty justified. Senator Mark Warner said Crozier was a patriot doing his job out of concern for his crew and shouldn't be punished for that.

Edited by Corraleno
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On 4/1/2020 at 4:40 PM, gardenmom5 said:

and . . . .

 

Josie Wright, 33, was taken into custody for stealing the masks and other medical supplies from Bassett Medical Center in Cooperstown. 

 

  you know other people are doing it too at other locations.  (just like the guys price gouging in TN weren't the only ones - they just went public to whine about not being able to sell their $1 bottles of sanitizer for $70.)  disgusting people.

You know, I wondered if this was what the president was thinking about earlier this week (or last week?) at one of the daily briefings.  It didn't strike me that he was accusing doctors and nurses, but rather that someone with access to supplies might be looking to make some money. 

Agree with you -- despicable that someone would do such a thing in NYC right now.  

(Sorry.  In NY -- upstate.) 

Edited by DoraBora
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1 hour ago, TracyP said:

I can't read this. Does it attempt to estimate how many cases are being missed?

No.  It’s not official data but a couple of doctors saying in their experience about 1/3.  

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6 hours ago, J-rap said:

Here's some interesting news:

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/04/01/mayo-clinic-expects-covid19-antibody-test-to-be-ready-monday?fbclid=IwAR2-LTa3XWX_gZ8AuWq53HbayF8lA92-0TUUtHTwmj3tkmcJdbIvHUKiSrI

"Researchers at Mayo Clinic expect to release a test that would tell whether a person has had and recovered from COVID-19 on Monday."

 

Yay! Let’s hope it becomes widely available in a reasonable amount of time.

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