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wuhan - coronavirus

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1 hour ago, Dotwithaperiod said:

Removed by moderator

 

OK, that is definitely too political, I'm sorry. We can't call people out by name on here. 

(I'm not commenting on the substance. Just on the policies of this forum.) 

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Just now, square_25 said:

 

The thing I wonder if it's a case of diminishing returns to quarantine places at this late date :-/. Like, they spent a LOT of energy containing the Westchester outbreak around here. It was, in fact, relatively contained. It did, however, turn out that the cat was out of the bag, anyway. It's possible the energy would have been better spent shutting things down earlier, for example.

 

We are where we are now. Too late to change the past. 

Just now, square_25 said:

It's also a lot harder to close state borders as opposed to country borders. How would you even enforce it?

That’s true.  That’s a reason why I think Stay Home except for essentials orders would work better. 

But this arose out of whoever it was @TracyP? question  of MN being able to safely go back to business as usual in 2 weeks — if other places don’t have Stay Home orders in place and if there aren’t shut borders. The question was can MN safely be an open business as usual place.  I think that was the question.  ???

Just now, square_25 said:

And what do you do with the fact that most states now have a hot zone? How big an area do you quarantine? Do you send in the military to patrol state borders? Is this even constitutional? Can you ensure that supplies can cross the lines? There are a lot of questions. 

I think the travel advisory is a good idea, anyway. I just wonder if there are better ways to spend energy than closing state borders or quarantining. Especially since most places are already locked down and very few people are flying as is. 

But again, I'm not vehemently against, except insofar that it seems like it'll take more energy than it's worth. 

 

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Just now, Pen said:

That’s true.  That’s a reason why I think Stay Home except for essentials orders would work better. 

But this arose out of whoever it was @TracyP? question  of MN being able to safely go back to business as usual in 2 weeks — if other places don’t have Stay Home orders in place and if there aren’t shut borders. The question was can MN safely be an open business as usual place.  I think that was the question.  ???

Well, personally, I don't think they can ;-). But maybe we'll have way more tests in a month and then it'll be a more interesting question. 

But the other question is: is it really state borders you want to close? The hot spots are often urban areas, so restricting travel to within a state mightn't even help that much, if there are any urban areas in the state. 

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Any church doing that would not be a church I'd step foot in again. and I'd report them to their higher ups, as far as I had to. 

I'm still annoyed that mine was one of the last to actually close. And that the last week they held services, AFTER everyone knew we should be 6 ft apart, they had people kneeling shoulder to shoulder at the altar rail. 

And today, on the streamed service yes, it was just the 2 priests, the music head playing the organ, and I think two choir members. But the priests were standing right next to each other!!!! WHY!?!? If one of them gets it, we need the other one to do the priestly stuff!

I swear, it's driving me insane. 

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22 minutes ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

 

Have people in China experienced individual economic fall out because of this, though?  I can imagine that if my family was struggling financially, and no one was going out, cancelling the kids cell phones, for example, would be one of the first things I'd do. 

I'd also want to know how often cell phones get cancelled in a typical 3 month period.  When I worked with families in poverty, people would get a new cell phone number every month or two.  Not a new phone, but they'd run out of minutes on their pay as you go plan, go for a week or two without a phone, and then when the new month started, maybe choose a different company or a different number.  Now that I think of that they probably did that so that I, their kid's teacher, would stop calling them.   

Anyway, my guess is that there are more cancelled accounts every month in the U.S., than most people would expect.

 

I think the supposition is that many of those 21 million accounts may be dead.  They said Chinese aren’t allowed to cancel their own accounts and most months the numbers grow.

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1 minute ago, matrips said:

I think the supposition is that many of those 21 million accounts may be dead.  They said Chinese aren’t allowed to cancel their own accounts and most months the numbers grow.

 

I wish China provided reliable enough numbers that we didn't have to try to figure things out from urns or cancelled cellphone accounts!! 😕 

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1 hour ago, square_25 said:

OK, that is definitely too political, I'm sorry. We can't call people out by name on here. 

(I'm not commenting on the substance. Just on the policies of this forum.) 

 

Deleted by moderator

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1 hour ago, Dotwithaperiod said:

 Deleted by moderator

The thread will be shut down. It's not my fault. I'm just letting you know we can't have political talk on here. 

(As I said, I'm not commenting on the substance.) 

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19 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Well, personally, I don't think they can ;-). But maybe we'll have way more tests in a month and then it'll be a more interesting question. 

But the other question is: is it really state borders you want to close? The hot spots are often urban areas, so restricting travel to within a state mightn't even help that much, if there are any urban areas in the state. 

 

I don’t think that’s the way to go after it.  I think the Hammer and the Dance idea sounds like a wiser approach.

This discussion on my part started because of the MN discussion.  

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Just now, Pen said:

 

I don’t think that’s the way to go after it.  I think the Hammer and the Dance idea sounds like a wiser approach.

This discussion on my part started because of the MN discussion.  

Oh, I see. I'm definitely thinking about it because of the travel advisory and suggestions of quarantining of NY. 

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1 minute ago, Dotwithaperiod said:

 I can’t say it’s filthy talk for a country’s leaser to insinuate that medical personnel are selling their equipment? I must live on a different planet than you. No way in hell will I apologize for calling out despicable lies.

 

You are violating the WTM Board Rules. IMO.

Please stop it. You don’t need to apologize, just stop.

.  There is a non public forum for political discussions where you can discuss politics all you want.

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@Dotwithaperiod

I think the type of discussion you want to engage in is allowed by the rules set up by Susan Wise Bauer over at 

https://forums.welltrainedmind.com/clubs/267-wtm-politics/

and I think the club owner there for joining is @Amira iirc. 

And that under Susan Wise Bauer’s Rules it is Not allowed here on the public Chat area. 

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1 hour ago, square_25 said:

The thread will be shut down. It's not my fault. I'm just letting you know we can't have political talk on here. 

(As I said, I'm not commenting on the substance.) 

 

Deleted by moderator

Please note: Deletion for breach of board rules says nothing at all about anyone's agreement or disagreement with the deleted content. 🤐

 

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Just now, Dotwithaperiod said:

Ok. So no reporting on anything the president says. That’s not allowed here. Because it’s politics. None of his statements are allowed? Because printing one of his effing lies is going to make this place erupt? 

To hell with this garbage. Quoting the president and calling out a lie as filth is political. You guys are beyond pathetic. 

 

I sent you a PM. I don't make the forum rules. 

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Just now, Dotwithaperiod said:

Ok. So no reporting on anything the president says. That’s not allowed here. Because it’s politics. None of his statements are allowed? Because printing one of his effing lies is going to make this place erupt? 

To hell with this garbage. Quoting the president and calling out a lie as filth is political. You guys are beyond pathetic. 

 

 

Dot, you agree to abide by site rules when you use a site. Please knock it off. 

  A word about political threads1 2

By Susan Wise Bauer, June 14, 2011   
 
 
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1 hour ago, Dotwithaperiod said:

Deleted by moderator

 

I reported something the president said.  He is extending the "Stop the Spread" campaign through the end of April.  I posted it because people were worried about his hopes that we could open things up by Easter.  

Somehow I doubt my post broke any rules.

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Regarding cell phones in China. If you don't have a cellphone, you are pretty much unable to engage in normal activities. You have to have it to do every day things because it's a virtually cashless society everything is mobile payment. And it's even more critical now as you have to show your health status on your phone as to whether or not you are permitted to freely move about.

I was over there in 2018 before they started allowing WeChat and Alipay to be linked to a foreign bank account in late 2019. It was just a lot harder because they don't want cash. In many places, it's impossible to get a taxi without a phone because no one will stop for you.

Edited by calbear
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1 minute ago, calbear said:

Regarding cell phones in China. If you don't have a cellphone, you are pretty much unable to engage in normal activities. You have to have it to do every day things things because it's a virtually cashless society everything is mobile payment. And it's even more critical now as you have to show your health status on your phone as to whether or not you are permitted to freely move about.

Yeah.  Best guesses are that the numbers being reported are missing a zero, at least.  It’s awful 😞 The on the ground reports that are getting out through semi-covert means to foreign family and friends, plus things like the urns and deactivated cell phones, tell a much worse story about the spread than what is being reported.

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3 hours ago, calbear said:

I saw this article today questioning China's reported numbers because of the number cancelled cell phones. 

https://www.ibtimes.sg/china-hiding-covid-19-death-toll-21-million-cell-phones-disappeared-why-41580 

There are so many ridiculous assumptions in that article. After saying that "probably" all 21 million closed accounts belonged to people who died of CV19, they go on to list all the other reasons that people would cancel cell phone accounts, including that many people have two cell phones and would naturally cancel one if they were out of work, and then at the end they say that if only 10% of the cell phone accounts were canceled because of death that would be 2 million deaths.

Around 10 million people died in China last year, so even if you assume those are distributed evenly throughout the year, you would expect 25% of the usual number of deaths in the first 25% of the year  — that's 2.5 million deaths attributable to causes excluding CV19. Factor in what is probably a higher death toll in winter during flu season, plus an increase in deaths from other causes due to lack of hospital capacity, and you could get up to 3 million deaths in the first quarter of the year without even factoring in CV deaths.

I think it's pretty widely accepted that China is fudging their numbers for both cases and deaths. I could easily believe that their numbers were more like 10,000 or even 20,000 deaths. But the implication that China could be hiding 21 million deaths in a 3 month period is beyond absurd. Wuhan has a population of about 11 million, and the population of Hubei Province is 58 million — the idea that they could hide millions of deaths that occurred in a city of 11 million, let alone a number that represents one-third of the entire population of Hubei, is tin-foil-hat territory.

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Hey one thing I'm wondering is how come Bejiing didn't have a surge of cases?  It is all over our big cities.  They are so crammed in there.  And if it is just the forced lockdown, then I'm guessing it will happen to them later in the year?

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13 minutes ago, Arctic Mama said:

Yeah.  Best guesses are that the numbers being reported are missing a zero, at least.  It’s awful 😞 The on the ground reports that are getting out through semi-covert means to foreign family and friends, plus things like the urns and deactivated cell phones, tell a much worse story about the spread than what is being reported.

Exactly.  And I think their misinformation played into how this was handled here originally. I mean all of China and only 3000 deaths?.  That didn’t seem to warrant shutting our entire country down.  I think once folks saw the numbers in Italy though...

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10 minutes ago, Happymomof1 said:

Hey one thing I'm wondering is how come Bejiing didn't have a surge of cases?  It is all over our big cities.  They are so crammed in there.  And if it is just the forced lockdown, then I'm guessing it will happen to them later in the year?

They had much more significant lock downs than we do with 14 day quarantine for anyone exiting or leaving the city.  And in case we’re in doubt about quarantine in Shanghai right now foreign journalist that’s in quarantine had a magnetic alarm on his door that goes off if he leaves.  They deported an Australian Chinese Citizen for trying to go for a run.  They are taking it beyond seriously.  The reduced measures in place now resemble our measures 

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I didn’t see it posted but the German Finance minister from the state of Hesse apparently committed suicide last night.  Apologies if it was already posted I haven’t had time to catch up yet.  Woke up and checked my phone at 2am and that kinda sabotaged sleep

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1 hour ago, DoraBora said:

I reported something the president said.  He is extending the "Stop the Spread" campaign through the end of April.  I posted it because people were worried about his hopes that we could open things up by Easter.  

Somehow I doubt my post broke any rules.

Quoting myself to add:  I didn't intend the above to sound smug.  (Sigh)  I'm sorry.  This is such a tense time!

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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

They had much more significant lock downs than we do with 14 day quarantine for anyone exiting or leaving the city.  And in case we’re in doubt about quarantine in Shanghai right now foreign journalist that’s in quarantine had a magnetic alarm on his door that goes off if he leaves.  They deported an Australian Chinese Citizen for trying to go for a run.  They are taking it beyond seriously.  The reduced measures in place now resemble our measures 

Or maybe they aren't reporting... 

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6 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Or maybe they aren't reporting... 

I one hundred percent believe there’s some of that but the bbc reported guy reckons there’s not widespread flooding of hospitals etc.  Which doesn’t mean there aren’t isolated unreported cases but it does mean there’s not a chaotic out of control situation reflecting it running rampant.  I think that they would probably sacrifice other areas to protect Beijing?

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Just now, Ausmumof3 said:

I one hundred percent believe there’s some of that but the bbc reported guy reckons there’s not widespread flooding of hospitals etc.  Which doesn’t mean there aren’t isolated unreported cases but it does mean there’s not a chaotic out of control situation reflecting it running rampant.  I think that they would probably sacrifice other areas to protect Beijing?

Yes, I'd say that's logical. 

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1 hour ago, matrips said:

Exactly.  And I think their misinformation played into how this was handled here originally. I mean all of China and only 3000 deaths?.  That didn’t seem to warrant shutting our entire country down.  I think once folks saw the numbers in Italy though...

I agree but I still don’t know why world leaders weren’t looking at what they were doing and not what they were saying.  I mean the widespread massive lockdowns and hospital building programs should have told us something.  China might have been fudging stuff,  Who might have backed them up but when we could see what was actually happening on the ground that seems like it should have been a wake up call that was ignored.

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Bno - New York state coronavirus death toll reaches 1,000 as NYC reports 98 new deaths

Edited by Ausmumof3

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3 hours ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

I wonder if some of the difference on feelings about crossing state lines has to do with where in the country someone lives.  I live in an area where state lines are very close together.  When I was working, I crossed a state line every day. On a typical week in the winter, last winter, members of our household would be in four different states, because we lived in one, had a standing medical/therapy appointment in another, and kids had after school activities in two others.  One of the family members who is picking up groceries and dropping them off at our house, while we are self isolating, lives in another state.  The nearest Walmart to my house is in another state.   If I had to take one of my kids to the ER with suspected COVID, I'd cross a state line, because the two nearest Children's hospitals are in two different states.  So, in my mind, closing state lines seems like an enormous step.  

On the other hand, if you live smack dab in the middle of state the size of Iowa or Texas, you might go for months without crossing a state line.  

 

2 hours ago, square_25 said:

 

It's also a lot harder to close state borders as opposed to country borders. How would you even enforce it? And what do you do with the fact that most states now have a hot zone? How big an area do you quarantine? Do you send in the military to patrol state borders? Is this even constitutional? Can you ensure that supplies can cross the lines? There are a lot of questions. 

I think the travel advisory is a good idea, anyway. I just wonder if there are better ways to spend energy than closing state borders or quarantining. Especially since most places are already locked down and very few people are flying as is. 

But again, I'm not vehemently against, except insofar that it seems like it'll take more energy than it's worth. 

 

I live right by a state border, too.  Less than 4 miles from my door to the border.  My in-law’s house used to be on the street that WAS the border.  If they stepped into the grass across the street from their house, they were in another state.  We pop back and forth across the border constantly.  My dh works in the bordering state, my kids’ orthodontist is in the bordering state, etc.  It’s all just “local” stuff to us. 

I don’t think state borders really mean anything to the virus.  It’ll be perfectly happy straddling a state line, or it’ll be happy to be smack in the middle of a state.  

A better idea would be to find a way to surround an area of outbreaks—some sort of X-mile radius around the center of it.  

But maybe legally, that’s too much of a hassle.  

Edited by Garga
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Just now, Garga said:

A better idea would be to find a way to surround an area of outbreaks—some sort of X-mile radius around the center of it.  

 

Yeah, that's kinda what they tried to do in Westchester -- they didn't prevent people from leaving, but they had more rigid rules there than elsewhere. It sort of worked, except it wound up spreading all over anyway. 

The thing I wonder about is whether we'd be able to do this effectively given the number of outbreaks and the lack of testing. It's obviously a good idea at the early stages, though. 

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Aus - ABC

“As we mentioned earlier, the ABC's medical expert Norman Swan was tested for coronavirus this morning after developing symptoms.

Dr Swan said he was now in self-isolation and to his knowledge, had not come into contact with anyone with the virus.”

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Abc - aus

Strict regulations around the manufacture of hand sanitiser have been relaxed so more businesses can make the product and meet rising demand.

  
The Federal Government says the Therapeutic Goods Administration no longer needs to approve the product if it's made with the recipes developed by the World Health Organisation.
  
Cheaper food grade alcohol can now also be used instead of the medical grade ingredient.
  
Some wineries with bushfire-damaged grapes are now using their facilities to manufacture sanitiser instead.

Edited by Ausmumof3
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3 minutes ago, Garga said:

I live right by a state border, too.  Less than 4 miles from my door to the border.  My in-law’s house used to be on the street that WAS the border.  If they stepped into the grass across the street from their house, they were in another state.  We pop back and forth across the border constantly.  My dh works in the bordering state, my kids’ orthodontist is in the bordering state, etc.  It’s all just “local” stuff to us. 

I don’t think state borders really mean anything to the virus.  It’ll be perfectly happy straddling a state line, or it’ll be happy to be smack in the middle of a state.  

A better idea would be to find a way to surround an area of outbreaks—some sort of X-mile radius around the center of it.  

But maybe legally, that’s too much of a hassle.  

 

Or maybe just a limit on how far people can travel from their homes?  I don't know.  I totally agree that locking down areas where there are outbreaks makes sense, but I just don't think that state lines are the way to do it.

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I just looked up Iceland's testing program, and they are currently testing people coming in from high-risk areas, not just random people in the population. Since those are often younger travelers (as was the case in Germany), their numbers are unlikely to be better than ours -- it's not random. 

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Something I've been thinking about... we're now only off by an order of magnitude from the number of worldwide annual flu deaths. And the current global curve is emphatically exponential. So it won't take that long to match that number. (And then we'll keep going.) 

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Just read that country music singer joe Diffie died of corona virus. Living right outside Nashville, that hurts. Country music stars are neighbors here.

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2 hours ago, Happymomof1 said:

Hey one thing I'm wondering is how come Bejiing didn't have a surge of cases?  It is all over our big cities.  They are so crammed in there.  And if it is just the forced lockdown, then I'm guessing it will happen to them later in the year?

 

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

They had much more significant lock downs than we do with 14 day quarantine for anyone exiting or leaving the city.  

 

China has a hukou system for decades. People aren’t allowed to move to major cities to work and live easily. 

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3 hours ago, matrips said:

I think the supposition is that many of those 21 million accounts may be dead.  They said Chinese aren’t allowed to cancel their own accounts and most months the numbers grow.

Another possibility could be cancelling accounts to keep information spreading about how bad it really has been.

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I’m not sure how shutting state borders would even be possible around here.  We are right next to a state border that is a river, but there are four bridges crossing within ten miles of our house.  Just posting a couple of police officers at each state border crossing in our rural county would completely overwhelm our county’s resources.  They would have to send in state troopers or something, and that would take a lot of moving people from high-density, high-virus areas way out to rural areas lacking in the medical resources to deal with outbreaks, but also not in as much danger because of low population density and low population mobility.

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Not sure if it's a fluke, but daily deaths are down both for the US (markedly) and for the globe for 3/29.

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@mathnerd was expecting this after school closures were extended to May 1st

“#BREAKING: All nine Bay Area counties are extending orders to stay at home through May 1 to stop the spread of the coronavirus, sources confirmed Sunday. 
http://nbcbay.com/Y0DaJnY”

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28 minutes ago, WendyAndMilo said:

Some Liberty University students that returned to the campus are now reporting symptoms🙄

I am so pissed off about this, because it's entirely predictable and only 45 minutes from where I was, and we had only one (known) local case before this.  And now it's going to be everywhere, dammit.  I hate him so much.  (I mean, I get that there are issues for stranded international students, but still, this was entirely predictable!!!  Don't send people to leave for spring break and then come back!)

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7 hours ago, calbear said:

I saw this article today questioning China's reported numbers because of the number cancelled cell phones. 

https://www.ibtimes.sg/china-hiding-covid-19-death-toll-21-million-cell-phones-disappeared-why-41580 

 

In the realm of weird info sources, my podcast ended and I flipped to online radio, at a lucky moment to pick up Coast to Coast with guest Uri Gellar (of all people🙄) include this point in his theory on what’s going on with this virus, it origins and and reporting. I didn’t really give it a second thought. I’ll check out your link. 

ETA While I personally believe China is not forthcoming with true numbers, after looking at the article you linked, I don’t think every shut down phone represents a life lost to CV. Some probably, bit too many other possible reasons to chalk them all up to that. JMO of course. 

Edited by Seasider too

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My town has it's first positive case.  The town still hasn't closed the parks and golf course, and last weekend the park was jammed full of people.  People have been coming down from Houston to camp and float around on the local rivers and lakes, and jam up the already packed grocery stores (we have all of *two* grocery stores).  We have 28,000 people that live in this town and our local hospital has a total of 125 beds, (not ICU beds...that is ALL the beds).  

But hey, we should focus on the positive, right? 😠

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