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3 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Where are you getting a number that high?

Personally, I think it’s in the low single digits, but the excess deaths will be much higher...

 

I’m following (mostly) upward trajectory graphs after elimination of China where I don’t believe the statistics:

 

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DS got home 3 hours ago!  ❤️❤️

Update-  my youngest is not only short of breath, coughing, dizzy, nausaues, and with headache-  she is also confused.  I called our doctor and talked with him and she is going to be going to the ER.

That's not a blanket right.  If my religion required human sacrifice, I can't practice it.  If my religion required sexual assault, I can't practice it. Freedom of religion isn't a blanket right

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1 hour ago, Carrie12345 said:

I’m a couple of pages behind, so someone else may have already shared similar thoughts, but I don’t want to loose my place, lol. 

There’s no real denying economic motivation for politicians lying and having scientists... let’s say sidestepping certain degrees of details. I don’t believe any of the top scientists involved are personally motivated by the economics, but do get pressured for it.

The other aspect is kind of tied into panic, which we’ve all talked about for weeks. Most of us who saw this what feels like ages ago did wish there were 100% transparency, but also acknowledged that it would have risked crippling panic. In addition to that panic, we still would have had people who did not believe it. Maybe more, considering some thoughts that were shared about the concept and definition of panic!

Instead, what we got was some people preparing in January, more in February, dare I say much more in March, plus a little bit of panic, and then some people who still did not believe it. Despite my desire to have all of the info up front, that was certainly a better outcome than all-out panic, and more important than my individual emotions and stance on hypothetical ethics at the time.  During this time, it looks to me like a lot of (not all) disbelievers have gradually digested reality, which they very well may not have otherwise.  And that means more compliance.  Not perfect, but more.

I do think that there’s been a sort of frog in the pot strategy going on, and that it’s working on the general public. In many (most?) areas, people have slowly been acclimating to concepts we all would have fought against if the switch was flipped all at once in February.  And, I suspect, we’ll continue to if/when more heat gets applied.

The horrible part is that essential services weren’t given the info or tools to handle what was known or suspected, and the systems that were designed to mitigate that issue have failed miserably. My full thoughts on that get too political for this forum, but it needs to be known that the US absolutely has had SOPs in place for this, at the federal, state, county, tribal, and local levels. They exist.  Humans decided to ignore them pre-disaster and throw them away mid-disaster. The citizenship deserves to know that!

Had SOPs been followed and the general public slowly steeped, we still would have lost people, sadly. But it wouldn’t have to be to the extent that we’re about to. There was never any chance of saying *everyone, especially people who chose to believe they were invincible and didn’t have to heed even the simplest of warnings. But more people will die because of gov’t non-compliance than individual ignorance.

I think it’s probably much harder to get the right balance for communication now.  In pre social media days the public could probably be not panicked while emergency services figure out and plan stuff.  Now the general public often have info ahead of official sources.  They don’t necessarily want to release wrong information so they take their time and verify but in the meantime everyone now already knows it and they seem behind.

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6 minutes ago, square_25 said:

South Korea’s numbers aren’t that large, and lots of countries are only testing the sickest people. I really wouldn’t use those estimates.

I keep wondering why people think the official CFR will go down.  I mean I think the cfr is probably lower than it looks in say Italy because maybe only the sickest are getting tested.  But presumably although a who had a mild case, didn’t get tested and recovered will never get tested so will never count on the official stats.  The only thing that could maybe change that is serology testing and including people with antibodies in the data.  Or maybe if there’s a continued outbreak and increased testing?  But if the number of new cases is going down, people from previously confirmed cases are still dying it’s just going to keep going up on paper right?

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Lancet on mortality- gives current rate  (few days back) outside China at ~ 15.2%.  Expected to level off to ~ 5.7%

 

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1 hour ago, Pen said:

 

Those are good. I feel very hopeful that NZ can eradicate, not just mitigate.

South Korea actually does have the 3% rate I would like to be seeing the global rate headed towards.

I am concerned that the global rate rising has to do with Spain, Italy, France, Philippines etc high numbers of deaths per population. And that at least for some places as much as total cases and thus recoveries are under reported, so too are deaths under reported as people are dying at home. 

I guess my other concern is that CFR projections were based on China data and China data is suspect.

I am hopeful that something like hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin will bring down deaths. 

However, absent a great treatment rapidly getting deployed,  the graphs and playing around with numbers on my own are looking more like maybe a ~ 10-15% CFR .   

If it gives you any peace of mind, maybe look at the Diamond Princess. They have a CFR of 1.5% right now. Sorry to be horribly morbid, but if every patient in ICU dies, the CFR will rise to 3.6%. That is in a population where 80% of the passengers were over 60. I think that 3-4% is a worst case scenario CFR, but not 10-15%.

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Just now, square_25 said:

Yeah, that’s a good example, I think. 

Where are you getting the ICU stats for them?

Worldometer. Let me know if you want link.

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2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I keep wondering why people think the official CFR will go down.  I mean I think the cfr is probably lower than it looks in say Italy because maybe only the sickest are getting tested.  But presumably although a who had a mild case, didn’t get tested and recovered will never get tested so will never count on the official stats.  The only thing that could maybe change that is serology testing and including people with antibodies in the data.  Or maybe if there’s a continued outbreak and increased testing?  But if the number of new cases is going down, people from previously confirmed cases are still dying it’s just going to keep going up on paper right?

 

When new cases go down / stop: Some of previous confirmed cases will be dying, but others will be gradually recovering. 

Plus possibly more treatments and better PPE protection gear will mean fewer high exposure personnel with massive viral loads. 

But I think the idea of leveling off towards 5.7% as in the Lancet I put screen shot of above seems more realistic than people who think it is going down to 1 point something.

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1 hour ago, Carrie12345 said:

Definitely. Knowing that their risk-gauging isn’t fully developed is the really hard part.
They’ve been going out and doing dangerous emergency service stuff since they were 14, but I’ve always been very confident in their training and their team.  This is so much different to me.

 

1 hour ago, StellaM said:

 

Needing to have that convo too - with my young nurse, now that thousands of free ICU nurse training places have opened up here. There will be heavy recruitment. 

I think PTSD is a real risk for young people in health care professions atm. I mean, for everyone, but young people particularly.

Paramedics here are against a proposal to allow students to work in the field, for the above reasons and others. 

Good luck having the conversation.

 

 

FWIW, here in my county currently no EMTs are allowed to respond to calls for suspected Covid 19. Only paramedics. That may change as we get more cases, of course. My brother is a volunteer EMT and fireman with close to 30 years' experience, has all sorts of hazmat certifications and is a certified FEMA building inspector (he's an engineer by profession). I post that just to let you know his level of experience and expertise with emergency response. And he believes the prohibition on EMTs responding is good.

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6 minutes ago, TracyP said:

If it gives you any peace of mind, maybe look at the Diamond Princess. They have a CFR of 1.5% right now. Sorry to be horribly morbid, but if every patient in ICU dies, the CFR will rise to 3.6%. That is in a population where 80% of the passengers were over 60. I think that 3-4% is a worst case scenario CFR, but not 10-15%.

 

However, Many Diamond Princess passengers, and crew, along with some that turned out to be CV19 cases got transferred to country of origin and their deaths and recoveries  (not in Japan)  stopped being attributed to DP iirc?  So the DP statistics stopped being all that useful. 

Japan, South Korea, Singapore have had excellent low death rates. 

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1 minute ago, Pen said:

 

However, Many Diamond Princess passengers, and crew, along with some that turned out to be CV19 cases got transferred to country of origin and their deaths and recoveries  (not in Japan)  stopped being attributed to DP iirc?  So the DP statistics stopped being all that useful. 

Japan, South Korea, Singapore have had excellent low death rates. 

Yes, they've been transferred I believe. But I think worldometer is still tracking them. For example they added the passenger in Australia who died the other day. 

Yes, I was just going to come post about those countries. I don't think any of their numbers are in question, are they?

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4 minutes ago, TracyP said:

Yes, they've been transferred I believe. But I think worldometer is still tracking them. For example they added the passenger in Australia who died the other day. 

Yes, I was just going to come post about those countries. I don't think any of their numbers are in question, are they?

 

I think all 3 of Japan, South Korea, Singapore are about as accurate and positive outcome as we get!   New Zealand, I’m guessing, will probably fare even better. 

Situation Not getting seriously out of control in them and good testing and high level government control probably allowed quite reliable figures and also excellent medical outcomes with medical systems not overwhelmed. Also some “luck “ where people did do some risky things,  like that the mega church in SK was one with relatively younger worshippers, rather than a huge outbreak in a mega size nursing home. 

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40 minutes ago, TracyP said:

If it gives you any peace of mind, maybe look at the Diamond Princess. They have a CFR of 1.5% right now. Sorry to be horribly morbid, but if every patient in ICU dies, the CFR will rise to 3.6%. That is in a population where 80% of the passengers were over 60. I think that 3-4% is a worst case scenario CFR, but not 10-15%.

Stats don’t include people who were infected then died in their own country I don’t think.  One in Australia.  I’m not sure if there were others

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24 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Stats don’t include people who were infected then died in their own country I don’t think.  One in Australia.  I’m not sure if there were others

 

That’s also my impression, but I’m not positive.  Maybe they switched them back to DP statistics as one of the later corrections they do.

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11 hours ago, bolt. said:

I think Florida really needs to think about how they will deal with offshore cruise ships if things get really bad. Like, what do you do with a ship that will (eventually) contain no one well: only dead and dying people? What do you do with a hulk in your harbour? At some point will you remove the survivors? Or will you remove the corpses instead? Neither?

And what makes them think people will passively stay on the ships? I don't think they are accounting for people's survival instincts. Won't they commandeer the lifeboats and try to come ashore? Won't people swim for it? Who just keeps floating there, isolating compliantly in their cabins, while a virus drops their ship-mates like flies and no one brings them meals any more? At some point, won't the crew begin to consider if they might save some lives by sinking the ship and seeking rescue?

You really can't just leave people with no solution. That's the stuff of nightmares.

They need to let the Americans off in Florida, and let other nationalities trickle out depending on when repatriation flights can be made available. They can even sail up the coast to take the Canadians to Canada. I can't see the humanity in just saying, "Nope not here. Our hospitals are only for certain folks. Better luck next time." -- to a ship load of desperate people in danger of their very lives.

Yup. It will only get worse. 

10 hours ago, Arcadia said:

@square_25the officials involved are still waiting on Holland America. I think they don’t want to be played out. They want a legal binding plan.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-ships-infected-port-everglades-20200401-mf4komanench5m7lwp34oeajly-story.html
“A memo outlined by the cruise line had called for sending guests home on commercial flights and charter flights, and Floridians driven to their houses. But the county is still waiting for an official plan that would be binding, including details about who would pay for what, an outline of the medical plan, and talks about security.

Zaandam and Rotterdam combined have 1,250 guests on board, including 311 Americans from 19 states; 52 of those are from Florida. Nine are from South Florida.”

This infuriates me. Worry about who will pay for it later. Letting people possibly die over money is dumb. 

8 hours ago, square_25 said:

Another article, this time from Spain, showing that excess mortality is way higher than is captured in the official COVID numbers:

https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-27/el-coronavirus-causa-mas-muertes-de-las-detectadas.html

It's in Spanish, which I don't read, so I did Google translate. 

And some discussion in English: 

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/hidden-mortality-in-spain

 

A highschool friend is in Spain. His reports are terrifying. 

7 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-38808-z
 

apparently the louder you speak the more droplets you put out so might explain it the high rate of spread in the choir

And this is why I wouldn't let my kids play four square with the neighbors, who all thought it was a brilliant plan to stay at a distance. Except it isn't. And they'd be touching the ball. And when breathing hard playing would be MORE likely to spew droplets. 

In other news, can I send some positive operatic singers to serenade Trump?

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1 minute ago, square_25 said:

 

No surprises, of course. But very stark. 

Actually, that it had risen was not a surprise, but economists were anticipating the rise to be only about 1/2 of what it was; so the magnitude of the rise is a shock.

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Can someone check my understanding?

6.6 million new US unemployment claims this past week. 3.3 million the previous week. So about 10 million in the past two weeks, right? Not 3.3 + 3.3.

I just want to make sure I’m processing the language correctly, because I haven’t yet seen anyone SAY ten million straight up.

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1 hour ago, TracyP said:

Yes, they've been transferred I believe. But I think worldometer is still tracking them. For example they added the passenger in Australia who died the other day. 

Yes, I was just going to come post about those countries. I don't think any of their numbers are in question, are they?

There data is the same as Bno and they don’t include the Aus death

there are some questions about the other countries.  South Korea is using a different test to us and Aus that may possibly have a higher false positive rate.  Japan is increasing testing I believe.

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We weren't the only ones sounding the alarm in January--a US Senator tried to sound the alarm this was coming, but no one was ready to listen to him. https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/03/the-senator-who-saw-the-coronavirus-coming/

Coronavirus spreads through the air (this info is already known to most of us but I heard a county health official hem & haw on this one two days ago). https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/health/aerosol-coronavirus-spread-white-house-letter/index.html

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26 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

Can someone check my understanding?

6.6 million new US unemployment claims this past week. 3.3 million the previous week. So about 10 million in the past two weeks, right? Not 3.3 + 3.3.

I just want to make sure I’m processing the language correctly, because I haven’t yet seen anyone SAY ten million straight up.

Yes, these are NEW claims being reported each week--so about 10 million new people in the past two weeks, with last week about twice as bad as the previous week.   

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36 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

A highschool friend is in Spain. His reports are terrifying. 

 

If he is like us, a Permanent Resident (legal alien) he will probably "Shelter in Place" in his home in  Spain.

However, if he is there temporarily, I would urge him to leave Spain. There is a possibility the U.S. Embassy there is arranging "humanitarian" flights to take U.S. Citizens to an airport in the USA.  He can find that information on the web site of the ACS (American Citizens Services) on the U.S. Embassy web site.

Here in Colombia, my belief from what I read is that the vast majority of the COVID-19 cases in Colombia are because of people who traveled here from Europe. Especially from Spain. Italy and Spain are very bad places to be at this time, with regard to COVID-19 and medical care.  (I am aware of the issues in and around NYC and in other areas of the USA which are also hot spots).

Here in Colombia, our airports are closed, to International flights and to the majority of domestic flights, to reduce the risk of people coming here with COVID-19.

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Based on # cases & trends, it looks like Spain's cumulative positives will overtake Italy's in the next couple of days. Italy's confirmed positive numbers have been trending down. Their daily death numbers are trending down, too, but I assume those might take longer to decrease due to the lag in deaths from serious cases taking time to resolve.

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9 hours ago, kdsuomi said:

I've never heard an American say just jigsaw when referring to a puzzle. It's usually puzzle and sometimes jigsaw puzzle, but maybe it's regional?

I too pictured a large tool when I saw "jigsaw."  I did eventually figure it out from the context.  😛

We had to use a jigsaw in shop class in 8th grade, so maybe that is why I thought of the tool first.

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9 hours ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

 

I think the rate of dead/diagnoses could be low, because we aren't testing all the asymptomatic people, or high because we aren't testing the dead people, and because it takes time to die.

But I have no doubt that the dead/recovered ratio is high.  Because the number of people who were sick 3 weeks ago, was so much lower, and the recovered number only includes those people.  

I noticed some time ago that some locations weren't really reporting recoveries.  I could see recoveries being very underreported since everyone is more focused on sick people.  So that is another likely factor skewing things.

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9 hours ago, square_25 said:

Or artificially low, because some places aren’t even testing the dead. It’s really hard to say.

NY is definitely testing mostly sick people, but it is running a lot of tests. So I’m sure the numbers are inflated, but I’m not sure how much. And then there are the related deaths due to healthcare system overload...

Basically are numbers are a big 🤷‍♀️, but we know it's not good.

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16 hours ago, Pen said:

From a known veterinarian who is into natural care of dogs and cats and is into homeopathy: 

Another veterinarian who was sick, but did not have a test to confirm CV19, so it could just have been a bad cold found the Nux Vomica helpful.

 I think it needs, even if anecdotal, someone or several people with confirmed CV19 to give it a try.

I wanted to comment that I checked out this link & the vet said one of COVID's symptoms was increased smell. I'm pretty sure we know that 25% or more of patients experience a lack of smell. I didn't look any further. (I have nux vomica on hand because I have a friend who swears by it & pushes it on everyone she knows. I don't put any faith in this claim. i will continue to take my Vit D!)

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45 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

Based on # cases & trends, it looks like Spain's cumulative positives will overtake Italy's in the next couple of days. Italy's confirmed positive numbers have been trending down. Their daily death numbers are trending down, too, but I assume those might take longer to decrease due to the lag in deaths from serious cases taking time to resolve.

What is very alarming about Spain is their number of critical cases.  They have about 1/2 as many confirmed cases as the US but 20% more critical cases as the US

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https://youtu.be/svGD6e_X_2w

Italy: a hospital using precautions such that at least so far no medical staff have been infected 

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46 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

I wanted to comment that I checked out this link & the vet said one of COVID's symptoms was increased smell. I'm pretty sure we know that 25% or more of patients experience a lack of smell. I didn't look any further. (I have nux vomica on hand because I have a friend who swears by it & pushes it on everyone she knows. I don't put any faith in this claim. i will continue to take my Vit D!)

 

I don’t have faith in it either.  And in addition to the smell thing I was suspicious of no cough symptom, which while some people with CV19 don’t have cough it meant that a key symptom was one the vet who wrote up his experience did not have.  Also putting symptoms into an online database, I could get a similar output answer of symptoms are suspicious for CV19 for my son, but that still didn’t mean that he had it.

From my own knowledge of homeopathy it isn’t even what I would personally choose to go with symptoms I have read are typical.  

 Nonetheless, it came to me from 3000 miles away. Circulating in an email, somewhat like those bogus ones about “lung fibrosis”, but not as clearly absolutely Debunkable.  

 I know a lot of allopathic doctors with enough curiosity that they would be willing to give an inexpensive homeopathic remedy a try.  (If they were infected, but not fighting for their life, or maybe even if they were.) 

Only no one I know has a confirmed case of CV19.  

I was hoping if the word went out someone might have CV19 and try the Nux Vomica and report on it!😊

Maybe I should find the family and friends with CV19 thread, or the one with family or self in medical fields. 

🤔

maybe I should write to the vets and suggest they get allopath medicine friends with confirmed cases to give it a try...   but I would have more confidence in anecdotal reports back from someone on this thread where there’s no particular vested interest in reporting a positive outcome. 

 

 

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My state (NV) and county health dashboards just updated.
My county makes up 75% of the state’s population. 
77% of all cases in the state are in my county. 
94% of all deaths in the state are in my county. 

F112B842-63C2-4E51-907C-75C55A72E564.png

463DC3C8-10B5-492F-80F5-86043A876CC3.jpeg

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Invisible Heros of Coronavirus

Quote

To my mind, though, some of the most heroic people—the ones who keep the lights on, the water flowing, who keep us comfortably warm or cold—are all but invisible. And they keep that cloak of invisibility through the modern-day camouflage of hardhats and steel-toed shoes.
I’m thinking of utility workers.
When pandemics sweep over, markets stumble, or natural disasters hit, the most critical people are those who keep our infrastructure operating. Politicians get a lot of the air time, but their guidance is hard to disseminate without operational electrical and telecommunications systems. Doctors and nurses are also front-line heroes, of course, but the biggest threat to public health has more to do with whether the water and wastewater systems are operating properly. If water systems fail, public health crises can spiral out of control.

I'd add to this list anyone keeping our phone & internet systems running although this author doesn't specifically mention them.

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17 hours ago, Corraleno said:

So that would be a total of 21,000 cremations for people who died of all causes (not just CV19) over a three month period in Wuhan. Yet there were more than 56,000 cremations in Wuhan in the last quarter of 2019, which was only slightly higher than stats for the last quarter of 2018. So the normal number of cremations one would expect in Wuhan in the first quarter of 2020 would be over 50,000 even without CV19. I guess if half the population fled the city and those who died of "normal" causes died elsewhere, that could explain some of the discrepancy. But it doesn't really make sense that there would be 30,000 fewer cremations than normal in Wuhan during a pandemic, so I wouldn't put much stock in those numbers either.

I agree. You and I do NOT know the real number. We simply have no way of knowing because China does not report the real number. The 21,000 is just as believable as the 3300 they reported. 

We DO NOT know the real number. 

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😂https://abc7news.com/bhpd-finds-192-rolls-of-toilet-paper-in-stolen-vehicle/6068705/

“BEVERLY HILLS, Calif. -- After conducting a traffic stop on a stolen vehicle, the Beverly Hills Police Department found something unexpected... 192 rolls of toilet paper.

Officers pulled over a stolen SUV at Rexford and Santa Monica Blvd. on Tuesday morning.

An investigation is taking place to determine where the toilet paper came from and if the vehicle owner stole the toilet paper or purchased it.

The suspect is now in custody without incident, according to police.”

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Zaadam and Rotterdam

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/national-international/cruise-ship-with-sick-on-board-to-approach-south-florida-with-fate-uncertain/2266079/

“Sources tell NBC News that a "deal is done" which would allow most passengers to get off the ships. The deal still needs the signatures of lawyers as required.

Broward County Commissioner Michael Udine said on Twitter that a final document would be released Thursday morning.

In an email sent Wednesday night, Holland America said it had received approval from a health system in Fort Lauderdale to treat fewer than 10 people “who need immediate critical care.” Some 45 other ill passengers will reportedly remain on board. Holland America has chartered planes for foreign nationals who will board specially sanitized buses to the waiting aircrafts.”

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This is sort of a random observation that concerns me.   Not sure what it means beyond stoping the spread is obviously very difficult......I know it’s been talked about before.......
 

 One odd thing that @Plum numbers just highlighted to me once again........there was a huge number of people who must have thought to some degree they were positive and weren’t.  The reality is most people who get tested are not positive.  We know it is still difficult to get tested so there is at least belief of exposure in most of these negative cases.  Then we look at numbers from a rather closed community like the Diamond Princes and see roughly half the positives are not symptomatic.  They would never have bothered to get tested in ordinary circumstances. 

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1 hour ago, Bootsie said:

What is very alarming about Spain is their number of critical cases.  They have about 1/2 as many confirmed cases as the US but 20% more critical cases as the US

Spain is scaring the bejeezus out of me.  Their death rate is so high compared to everyone else - and then I saw this article saying it looks like they're missing about half the actual deaths, based on retrospectives on normal deaths for this time of year compared to past years.

It's in Spanish (which I do read), but the charts alone give a graphic picture.  Yes, some of these deaths are likely because people are dying of something else but can't get the medical attention they'd get in other years - but that's still indirectly caused by the virus...  The blue line is average deaths, actual for this year goes up and down, as would be expected.. until mid-March.  The difference in red is between estimated deaths, added deaths officially from Coronavirus, and other 'extra' deaths with no current explanation.

image.png.33fa549fb45f59a8949311beb35ec18c.png

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I remember puzzle generally meaning jigsaw puzzle, but then it seemed like so many more types of puzzles came available and now puzzle is more general.  

I think a lot of companies that may have kept their employees on with some stay at home work or at least continued paying some employees went ahead and laid off or did furloughs when the package came out and they saw employees would still get almost full pay without the company having to pay it while closed.    Oldest dd was originally going to be working from home.  She's a store manager for a clothing store and had paperwork she could do, but this week they furloughed everyone.  

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Another puzzle is why California, with thousands of infections, has a significantly lower death rate even in the cities than New York.  The density of deaths in some areas is kind of perplexing, especially when there is significant international travel to both, and was significant travel in January and February back and forth to China for the lunar new year.

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1 minute ago, Arctic Mama said:

Another puzzle is why California, with thousands of infections, has a significantly lower death rate even in the cities than New York.  The density of deaths in some areas is kind of perplexing, especially when there is significant international travel to both, and was significant travel in January and February back and forth to China for the lunar new year.

I wonder if it has to do with viral load. People in NYC are packed so close together. They're breathing everyone else's air and touching so many surfaces that thousands of other people have touched that same day. Maybe the people who are getting infected in NYC are exposed to a higher viral load at the time of infection and that is leading to more severe cases.

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8 minutes ago, Arctic Mama said:

Another puzzle is why California, with thousands of infections, has a significantly lower death rate even in the cities than New York.  The density of deaths in some areas is kind of perplexing, especially when there is significant international travel to both, and was significant travel in January and February back and forth to China for the lunar new year.

Does California have as much mass transit as New York.  I would assume more time in close quarters, both in trains and stations increases exposure.  Also, California has really nice weather this time of year and more people have likely been outside exercising rather than staying inside or exercising in gyms.  I would assume starting out healthier makes for better outcomes.  I know I am in overall better shape at the end of summer with actual sunshine - real vitamin D -than I am after a winter inside.  As much as I mean to get out and exercise, it is really hard to motivate on short, cold, cloudy, snowy, windy days.

Edited by Mom2mthj
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5 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/04/01/europe/iceland-testing-coronavirus-intl/index.html?__twitter_impression=true
 

has this been posted yet?

Iceland have tested 5pc of the population. Less than 1 percent of tests came back positive . But of those that came back positive half were asymptomatic.

 

Quoting partly to bring attention.

This seems similar to testing in Vo, Italy where everyone was tested and lots of positive asymptomatic cases were found.  I don’t recall the percentage . 

I think it’s a reason that masks, Scarves, bandanas, for all, homemade or whatever, would help.  

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I've been wondering about the reports that this could possibly spread just via talking. Didn't we have several NBA teams who tested all of the team members and didn't we only have about a dozen test positive? Wouldn't there have been a higher number of positives (even if asymptomatic) if it was that easily spread?

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1 minute ago, square_25 said:

I would guess they are just testing a different population — we’re still testing the sickest people in NY. They also may have fewer people living in single households and passing it around. Lots of variables.

Manhattan is the densest and least affected borough. A lot of plausible explanations can’t be squared with that.

Wouldn’t Manhattan also be the richest, healthiest population?  We have lots of cases in Detroit - not really particularly dense, very little mass transit, but very poor.  Income doesn’t mean you will be healthy, but it does improve your ability to obtain healthy food over a long period of time and address medical concerns as they arise.  Right now, money allows you to have stuff delivered or buy the more expensive brand so you don’t have to go to multiple stores.  With all the talk about vitamin D, California should have that in spades over New York right now.

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12 minutes ago, Mom2mthj said:

Does California have as much mass transit as New York.  I would assume more time in close quarters, both in trains and stations increases exposure.  Also, California has really nice weather this time of year and more people have likely been outside exercising rather than staying inside or exercising in gyms.  I would assume starting out healthier makes for better outcomes.  I know I am in overall better shape at the end of summer with actual sunshine - real vitamin D -than I am after a winter inside.  As much as I mean to get out and exercise, it is really hard to motivate on short, cold, cloudy, snowy, windy days.

 

Yes , I agree with a lot of that! 

 

And @Arctic Mama

having lived in both, I have some speculations.  In addition to greater crowding in New York City area at least.

Much of California has more sunshine and a culture that allows more casual dress with skin getting the sunshine if vitamin D is relevant.

Much of California has relatively more fresh fruit and  vegetables widely available.

although smog is a major Los Angeles problem, and asthma related to it, which would be  CV19 risk environmental risk factor, a lot of Californians get more fresh air and outdoors exercise than more indoor oriented lifestyle NewYorkers. 

 

(These types of factors May also relate to why Hawaii isn’t sky high despite huge international travel.) 

Edited by Pen
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Southern Maryland engineers working on modifying breast pumps to meet some patients' ventilator needs. 

They acknowledge this wouldn't work for every patient, but hearing about such innovations does bring me hope. I love that the original idea came from a mama with an old pump sitting in her closet.... 

https://www.thebaynet.com/articles/0420/southern-maryland-engineers-hope-to-solve-ventilator-shortage-with-breast-pumps.html?fbclid=IwAR0FE76penCR5WRd_X8WdQhbKvI-X76pOlfnnBcy25lko-cARylFPJOL_8U

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