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quick update: my daughter is feeling much better. still no tests available. Hubby still quarantined in basement. 

I cannot find ANY evidence from a credible source that this stupid virus is contagious during the incubation period. All official websites say it's not impossible but the likelihood is low. Also, contradictory to what someone mentioned to me in a comment upthread, the more symptomatic you are, the more contagious you are. 

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3 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-03-23/despite-official-figures-wuhan-continues-to-find-new-asymptomatic-covid-19-cases-daily-101532880.html?cxg=web&Sfrom=twitter
 

despite no official new cases WuhAn are still finding asymptomatic cases.

back to asymptomatic cases not being counted.  It seems weird that this virus has so many asymptomatic positive tests overall.  

 

“BEIJING: China reported 78 new cases of the deadly coronavirus on Tuesday (Mar 24), with the vast majority brought in from overseas as fears rise of a second wave of infections.

The first new case in nearly a week was also reported in Wuhan - the epicentre where the virus emerged last year - along with three other local infections elsewhere in the country.

Seven more people died, the National Health Commission said, all in Wuhan.

But at 74, the imported cases confirmed Tuesday were the highest since officials started reporting the data at the beginning of March, and nearly double those reported Monday.” https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/coronavirus-covid-19-china-new-cases-imported-12569894

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On 3/22/2020 at 9:01 PM, Katy said:

Also, the more symptoms people have the lower the viral load (and therefore less contagious) it is. 

I'm not seeing any data that supports this. Source? Thank you!

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2 minutes ago, popmom said:

I'm not seeing any data that supports this. Source? Thank you!

 

There are multiple links earlier in this thread.

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5 minutes ago, popmom said:

quick update: my daughter is feeling much better. still no tests available. Hubby still quarantined in basement. 

I cannot find ANY evidence from a credible source that this stupid virus is contagious during the incubation period. All official websites say it's not impossible but the likelihood is low. Also, contradictory to what someone mentioned to me in a comment upthread, the more symptomatic you are, the more contagious you are. 

I don’t remember if they have actual cases of asymptomatic spread. but there was a credible source stating that viral load was highest before symptoms showed.

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Also, (and then I'll leave y'all alone) just fyi, Everlywell was advertising yesterday that they were going to start selling test kits for AT HOME use starting today. I sent dd the money and told her to order when she woke up. Well, apparently they have changed course all together. They are only making the tests available to health care providers and hospitals. That is NOT what they were advertising as of Sunday night late.

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Just now, Katy said:

 

There are multiple links earlier in this thread.

ok got no time for that. I'm going with the CDC I guess

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1 minute ago, Katy said:

 

There are multiple links earlier in this thread.

It’s a looong thread ;-). Probably worth finding them and reposting.

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Just now, popmom said:

Also, (and then I'll leave y'all alone) just fyi, Everlywell was advertising yesterday that they were going to start selling test kits for AT HOME use starting today. I sent dd the money and told her to order when she woke up. Well, apparently they have changed course all together. They are only making the tests available to health care providers and hospitals. That is NOT what they were advertising as of Sunday night late.

 

Everylywell was on CBS news tonight.  No at-home test kits have been approved by the FDA, and they were marketing the tests as if they were.  They are now not actually selling the tests to anyone unless/until the tests get approved.

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This is from Yale Medicine, which I'd consider pretty reliable

 

The CDC believes COVID-19 is most contagious when people who have it are most symptomatic, and symptoms of COVID-19 can appear anytime between two and 14 days after exposure. There may be some spread before people with the disease exhibit symptoms, although this is thought to be minimal.

https://www.yalemedicine.org/conditions/covid-19/

 

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2 minutes ago, Katy said:

No at-home test kits have been approved by the FDA,

Why in the hell were they advertising them then? That's just bizarre. What a clusterf***

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Just now, popmom said:

yes! but this is in direct contradiction to what someone posted in response to my query earlier. That's why I'm back for clarification.

I remember seeing those links about being super contagious while asymptomatic.  But you have to remember, the scientists are publishing the data as they find out about it.  They don't know anything for certain yet, so information like this is bound to change...especially with mutations and such.  If you want someone to nail down and stick to a piece of information for the long-term, maybe look at those politicians with their head up their asses.  They're good at that.

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Just now, popmom said:

ok but asymptomatic is very different from "incubation period". Right?

I mean, you wouldn’t be able to tell the difference until later... the other link I posted has people who are contagious before they showed symptoms.

This seems pretty well documented.

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5 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Here’s one. There are lots:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001737

Asymptomatic carrier has as high a viral load as others.

 

But that doesn't mean that an asymptomatic carrier is as contagious as someone with advanced disease.  One of the things that makes people more contagious is viral load, but another big factor is whether or not they are coughing and thus spreading droplets in the air.

To me, this supports what I linked from the CDC, that people may be contagious before they are symptomatic, but there is great contagion when they are symptomatic.  It also goes against what was posted earlier that said that viral load goes down when someone becomes symptomatic.

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Just now, CuriousMomof3 said:

 

But that doesn't mean that an asymptomatic carrier is as contagious as someone with advanced disease.  One of the things that makes people more contagious is viral load, but another big factor is whether or not they are coughing and thus spreading droplets in the air.

To me, this supports what I linked from the CDC, that people may be contagious before they are symptomatic, but there is great contagion when they are symptomatic.  It also goes against what was posted earlier that said that viral load goes down when someone becomes symptomatic.

They are still studying it. Here’s one that cites a case where there was higher viral load earlier:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00822-x

Honestly, no one really knows yet. I’d assume you’re right about being more contagious if they are sneezing and coughing, but there’s evidence of asymptomatic spread. That’s all we’ve got right now. Everything else is guesswork and should be treated as such.

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6 minutes ago, Slache said:

"possible" is worlds away from "highly contagious during incubation period" which is what Dr. Braly was claiming. I'm sorry if this pisses y'all off. I just cannot stand when people latch on to something as fact and spread misinformation when there is little if any evidence of it. Asymptomatic is not the same as incubation period. I'll go away now lol. 

Edited by popmom
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25 minutes ago, popmom said:

ok but asymptomatic is very different from "incubation period". Right?

 

Okay I'm not going to quote every link here.  You can google this thread and find the links if you want, but you still won't love them if your plan is to guarantee you won't get sick.  The reality is NO ONE KNOWS ANYTHING YET, not even the CDC.  Please do not take random undated articles from journalism majors at Yale or anyplace else as gospel because the news is changing every single day.. Yes, there have been at least 3 instances of separate very tiny, not-randomized observational studies in Western countries (NOT China) indicating that people who are not showing symptoms or who are showing such mild symptoms they don't even consider themselves sick have higher viral loads than people who are showing symptoms.  Not many people have had either the time or inclination to study this because most people are more interested in helping patients than they are in counting viral loads. I don't think a single thing has been published about whether those people observed to have high viral loads ended up developing symptoms later or not.

The very first case of an asymptomatic (or very mild symtoms) case transmitting the virus was in France more than a month ago.  Asymptomatic transmission is not new in the scope of news about this virus.

If you want to be MOST safe, quarantine your husband for 21 days if he has no symptoms.  That's the mean of how long it is between when people feel symptoms until when they are no longer considered contagious.

I never said viral load decreases when you develop symptoms.  I said it was shown that those who have symptoms have lower viral loads than those who don't have symptoms but still test positive.   We don't know how viral load changes in relation to symptoms, we only know asymptomatic transmission is one of several reasons this is so contagious.

 

ETA:  actually the 21 day mean thing is only true for those who no longer have symptoms.  According to China those who die from this continue to have detectable viral loads until death, even after 21 days.

Edited by Katy
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12 minutes ago, popmom said:

"possible" is worlds away from "highly contagious during incubation period" which is what Dr. Braly was claiming. I'm sorry if this pisses y'all off. I just cannot stand when people latch on to something as fact and spread misinformation when there is little if any evidence of it. Asymptomatic is not the same as incubation period. I'll go away now lol. 

I think the CDC is being gentle because facts are low right now. I do believe it's highly contagious and I've been watching this thing like a cat with a lazer pointer.

Good luck on your quest. I haz the tired.

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16 minutes ago, popmom said:

"possible" is worlds away from "highly contagious during incubation period" which is what Dr. Braly was claiming. I'm sorry if this pisses y'all off. I just cannot stand when people latch on to something as fact and spread misinformation when there is little if any evidence of it. Asymptomatic is not the same as incubation period. I'll go away now lol. 

 

Dr Braly linked her evidence in the notes beneath the video.  If we didn't know how contagious asymptomatic people are we wouldn't be needing to practice social distancing right now.

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2 minutes ago, Katy said:

 

Dr Braly linked her evidence in the notes beneath the video.  If we didn't know how contagious asymptomatic people are we wouldn't be needing to practice social distancing right now.

Absolutely. My sticking point is that "incubation period" is different from asymptomatic. Sorry. I said I would leave y'all alone. Somebody just tell me I'm right dammit! 😂🤣

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1 hour ago, Garga said:

Good point that they could have simply been quarantined without being tested first.  

I think that since Congress, Senate, Governors, President, VP, Supreme Court justices and the army/navy/airforce chiefs are all invaluable to our country's wellbeing and there would be chaos if anything happened to some of them (all of them, or any of them) because of the covid virus, it would be a good idea for the secret service to insist that all of them work from home for the foreseeable future for their own security. This thing is so covert and is so contagious, it is as lethal as a flying bullet.

The government officials could easily have Skype meetings, Zoom meetings etc with their staff and their constituents. 

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7 minutes ago, popmom said:

Absolutely. My sticking point is that "incubation period" is different from asymptomatic. Sorry. I said I would leave y'all alone. Somebody just tell me I'm right dammit! 😂🤣

 

We have no evidence whatsoever about whether a highly contagious person with no symptoms is in an incubation period or whether they will remain asymptomatic.  It is impossible to know at this point.   We can make some guesses based on South Korea, who have done widespread testing AND contact tracing, and the fact that many people under 44 have no symptoms but test positive, but at this point no one knows the answer to your question.

If your deeper question is what to do about your husband, I think the longest incubation period anyone has mentioned was one outlier case in China of something like 28 days, and I don't think anyone here believes any Chinese research until it is backed up by other countries.

ETA:  We can also say for sure that many people who test positive without symptoms go on to develop symptoms, in an average of 4 days, but again the length of time has only been shown in Chinese research I think.

Edited by Katy
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4 minutes ago, popmom said:

Absolutely. My sticking point is that "incubation period" is different from asymptomatic. Sorry. I said I would leave y'all alone. Somebody just tell me I'm right dammit! 😂🤣

I think the thing is that we don't know how long until you become contagious. Better safe than sorry. My mom wouldn't survive this and neither would my uncle. I'm questionable. My dad and FIL are diabetic. What's it worth to save my life? How inconvenienced are you willing to be? So we don't know, but we're acting on the worst case scenario.

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I really do appreciate this community. Thank you for putting up with my extreme left-brained self. Grace and peace to you all. Lord have mercy. Christ have mercy on us all.

 

 

 

Edited by popmom
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1 hour ago, Katy said:

 

Everylywell was on CBS news tonight.  No at-home test kits have been approved by the FDA, and they were marketing the tests as if they were.  They are now not actually selling the tests to anyone unless/until the tests get approved.

The FDA is a huge reason, the biggest reason, we have inadequate testing in the first place. We've red taped ourselves in.

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https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/23/oura-partners-with-ucsf-to-determine-if-its-smart-ring-can-hep-detect-covid-19-early/
“Oura partners with UCSF to determine if its smart ring can help detect COVID-19 early

... The smart ring startup is working with the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF) on a new study to see if its device can help detect early physiological signs that might indicate the onset of COVID-19.

This study will include two parts: Around 2,000 frontline healthcare professionals will get Oura rings to wear during the study. The rings track a user’s body temperature continuously, as well as their sleep patterns, heart rate and activity levels. Fever is a common and early symptom that could indicate COVID-19, and a continuously updated body temperature reading could detect fever very early. That’s not enough to confirm a case of COVID-19, of course, but the purpose of the study is to determine whether the range of readings Oura’s ring tracks might, taken together and with other signals, be useful in some kind of early detection effort.

There’s good reason why researches believe that Oura could be used in early detection: An Oura user in Finland claims the ring alerted him to the fact that he was ill before he was displaying any overt symptoms of the virus, prompting him to get tested (relatively easy in that country). Test results confirmed that while asymptomatic, he had indeed contracted COVID-19. As a result, UCSF researcher Dr. Ashley Mason hypothesizes that the Oura ring could anticipate COVID-19 onset by as many as two to three days before the onset of more obvious symptoms, like coughing.

Being able to detect the presence of the virus in an individual early is key to global containment efforts, but even more important when it comes to frontline healthcare workers. The earlier a frontline responder is diagnosed, the less chance that they expose their colleagues or others they’re working around in close quarters.

In addition to the Oura rings being provided to study participants, the plan is to expand it to include Oura’s general user population, meaning its more than 150,000 global users can opt in to participate and add to the overall pool of available information with their ring’s readings and daily symptom surveys. For existing Oura users, it’s a relatively low-lift way to contribute to the global effort to combat the pandemic — without even leaving the house.”

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https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/23/amazon-care-to-provide-delivery-and-pick-up-of-at-home-covid-19-test-sample-kits-in-seattle-trial/
“Amazon Care to provide delivery and pick-up of at-home COVID-19 test sample kits in Seattle trial

Amazon  is going to be working with a new research initiative backed in part by the Gates Foundation that will distribute at-home coronavirus assessment kits, and then deliver the collected samples to FDA-approved test facilities. Amazon Care, the health arm formed by Amazon initially for internal employee care, will be handling the delivery of the kits, as well as transportation of collected samples to the test labs, as first reported by CNBC.

While the FDA updated its guidance just a few days ago to specifically exclude at-home testing from the Emergency Use Authorization that is in place to enable broadened private lab testing of potential COVID-19 cases, the arrangement with the Seattle Coronavirus Assessment Network (SCAN) and Amazon Care bypasses use of the traditional mail or package delivery network. The Amazon Care drivers who are doing the test kit drop-offs and deliveries are specifically trained in proper handling of sensitive medical materials, and the SCAN project is for a limited research endeavor undertaken in order to help “understand how coronavirus is spreading in the Greater Seattle area.”

Availability of kits will be limited, but will include the kind of swab testing that is being conducted at drive-through testing facilities in the U.S. Should a sample test positive for COVID-19, the person who provided the sample to SCAN will be contacted by a healthcare worker for next steps, including advice on how to seek treatment and prevent transmission.

SCAN is the result of a partnership by Seattle & King County’s Public Health department, as well as a team of hospitals and health organizations that created the Seattle Flu Study, a similar project meant to study the spread of the traditional seasonal flu within the community. The research and data modeling work done for that study have been adapted to the study of COVID-19, and the flu study has been put on hold while researchers focus on the pandemic instead.”

Edited by Arcadia
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11 minutes ago, EmseB said:

The FDA is a huge reason, the biggest reason, we have inadequate testing in the first place. We've red taped ourselves in.

I think this starts us down an extremely political path. Let’s not go there.

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11 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I think this starts us down an extremely political path. Let’s not go there.

Really? I thought it was just established fact at this point...there was a really well done timeline of testing issues in the US that was not at all political.  I thought it was posted to this thread. The FDA has to approve new tests. It can take upwards of 10 years in this country to get a new diagnostic test on the market and declaring an emergency situation actually makes the problem worse in a crisis. I didn't know we couldn't discuss problems with testing on this thread?

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1 minute ago, EmseB said:

Really? I thought it was just established fact at this point...there was a really well done timeline of testing issues in the US that was not at all political.  I thought it was posted to this thread. The FDA has to approve new tests. It can take upwards of 10 years in this country to get a new diagnostic test on the market and declaring an emergency situation actually makes the problem worse in a crisis. I didn't know we couldn't discuss problems with testing on this thread?

That wasn’t an apolitical timeline. I strongly disagree with that characterization, but I really don’t want the thread shut down, and I can’t really debate it without naming the actors :-).

Anyway, I think it’s best to stick to news and personal experiences.

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2 hours ago, popmom said:

quick update: my daughter is feeling much better. still no tests available. Hubby still quarantined in basement. 

I cannot find ANY evidence from a credible source that this stupid virus is contagious during the incubation period. All official websites say it's not impossible but the likelihood is low. Also, contradictory to what someone mentioned to me in a comment upthread, the more symptomatic you are, the more contagious you are. 

Here you go too, although I see a number of other ones have been posted.  And some of those articles have, in fact, mentioned studies that show asymptomatic people shedding even more virus.  

https://www.msn.com/en-us/Health/health-news/infected-people-without-symptoms-might-be-driving-the-spread-of-coronavirus-more-than-we-realized/ar-BB11caN5?ocid=sf

Yes, and one is asymptomatic during the incubation period.  No way to tell which that is until symptoms show up.  Or don't.  But contagious either way.  How are you supposed to tell if someone who is exposed is 1) asymptomatic carrier 2) incubating  or 3) not infected.  Not unless you test them.  But both 1) and 2) are potential spreaders.

From the article - this Biogen cluster is well-known and documented - and the number from this cluster has gone way up since this article was printed.  People that spread it at the meeting were in the incubation period - they didn't know they had it, but then got sick after the meeting, at which they spread it to a whole ton of people.
But it appears that a Massachusetts coronavirus cluster with at least 82 cases was started by people who were not yet showing symptoms, and more than half a dozen studies have shown that people without symptoms are causing substantial amounts of infection.

 

Edited by Matryoshka
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Abc (don’t read if you’re feeling fragile 😞)

Residents of Spanish nursing homes have been found abandoned or dead in their beds as the country's coronavirus outbreak worsens, according to the nation's Defence Minister.

Key points:

  • Spain is the second hardest-hit country in Europe after Italy
  • Madrid is struggling to cope, with the highest number of cases
  • City authorities have used an ice rink as a makeshift morgue

The Spanish military has been brought in to help disinfect areas, including nursing homes, as the disease spreads in one of Europe's worst-hit countries.

"The army, during certain visits, found some older people completely abandoned, sometimes even dead in their beds," Defence Minister Margarita Robles told broadcaster Telecinco, according to the BBC.

She did not say what had caused the deaths.

Coronavirus update: Follow all the latest news in our daily wrap

Spain is the second hardest-hit country in Europe after Italy, with the country's death toll at more than 2,300, according to figures by the Johns Hopkins University.

A Spanish official in charge of the health emergency said 87 per cent of those who had died were aged 70 or older.

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Adelaide Now:  The second stage of radical restrictions could be in place in Australia tomorrow as authorities deal with the fallout of infected passengers disembarking from the Ruby Princesss cruise ship. 

Sky News is reporting that a more severe lockdown will be discussed at tonight’s National Cabinet meeting amid concerns that many Australians are continuing to ignore the social distancing guidelines.

Stage two restrictions could include the full closure of schools, public transport reductions and the cancellation of all weddings.

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2 hours ago, popmom said:

quick update: my daughter is feeling much better. still no tests available. Hubby still quarantined in basement. 

I cannot find ANY evidence from a credible source that this stupid virus is contagious during the incubation period. All official websites say it's not impossible but the likelihood is low. Also, contradictory to what someone mentioned to me in a comment upthread, the more symptomatic you are, the more contagious you are. 

 

1) There was a UK business man who picked up CV19 somewhere, maybe Singapore I don’t recall for sure, then while feeling well himself became a “superspreader” to a number of people including some at a ski chalet.  He then apparently realized that he was probably infected because of contacts, but still hadn’t had symptoms, then got tested and at some point I think did have symptoms and was in hospital in UK.

2) There was a 38 yo in Italy (case 1?) who got CV we apparently don’t know how, felt well enough to attend / participate in various functions including a marathon and soccer game.  Infected a number of other people along way including his wife. Ultimately ended up in critical condition in ICU himself. 

I think both are legitimate cases. 

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1 hour ago, square_25 said:

That wasn’t an apolitical timeline. I strongly disagree with that characterization, but I really don’t want the thread shut down, and I can’t really debate it without naming the actors :-).

Are you referring to the timeline published by The Dispatch that was linked upthread? I know The Dispatch is considered center-right, but I'm as far left as you can get and it seemed like a well-researched, fact-based article that included quotes from reputable sources and links to original documents. Most of the information in it matched what I have read in sources like the Washington Post and NY Times. If there are inaccuracies in it, or important facts that were selectively omitted or cherry-picked, etc., I would be genuinely interested in that information. 

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USA now officially has the 3rd highest no of cases worldwide after China and Italy with 46,157.  Obviously we can assume some countries aren’t testing as widely but still concerning.

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Just now, Ausmumof3 said:

USA now officially has the 3rd highest no of cases worldwide after China and Italy with 46,157.  Obviously we can assume some countries aren’t testing as widely but still concerning.

But the US is also a huge country.  And so far the deathrate hasn't been as high.  Which doesn't mean that we are out of the woods - we are just entering the woods still.  But just a bit of perspective, in my opinion. 

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1 hour ago, square_25 said:Anyway, I think it’s best to stick to news and personal experiences.

Ah, sorry, I am way behind on what we're supposed to post to which thread at this point or that people were making guidelines for what should be posted...my bad! I don't have any personal experience and I guess the testing stuff seems newsy to me, and these discussions are pretty overwhelming so I just jump in a lot of the time without being fully aware.

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1 hour ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

But the US is also a huge country.  And so far the deathrate hasn't been as high.  Which doesn't mean that we are out of the woods - we are just entering the woods still.  But just a bit of perspective, in my opinion. 

I suspect what it means is other countries like Iran for example with a higher death rate have a massively high undiagnosed case load.  And yes US has a lower population density and is increasing testing. 

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Breaking: Adelaide students and teachers in self isolation after positive tests at high school 

Eight staff members and 110 students at Unley High School in Adelaide have gone into self-isolation, after a student and teacher tested positive to COVID-19 last week.
 

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Remember all the discussion about electricity?

My trees are all encased in thick ice and sagging right now. And it’s pretty windy out there. I very much want to believe that, if there’s an outage, we’ll be back up and running nice and quickly. I’m keeping my fingers crossed, but we’re expecting another round tomorrow. Sigh.

I’m really just venting. The universe is unfair and I shouldn’t have to be in winter mode at the end of March in a pandemic.

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Aus new restrictions- From midnight on Wednesday, existing restrictions will be extended to include:

Food courts inside shopping centres - however, take-away will be allowed

Auction houses

Real estate auctions and open house inspections

Outdoor and indoor markets - excluding food markets

Beauty therapy, tanning, waxing, nail salons, massage and tattoo parlours

Amusement parks and arcades

Play centres, both indoor and outdoor

Community and recreation centres

Personal training will be limited to 10 people, with social distancing strictly enforced

Social and sporting-based activities, involving large groups

Galleries, museums, libraries and community facilities

Community clubs, halls and RSLs

Weddings are restricted to couples, the celebrant and witnesses (no more than five people)

Funerals have been restricted to no more than 10 people

 

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4 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Aus new restrictions- From midnight on Wednesday, existing restrictions will be extended to include:

 

I'm hearing from a teacher friend that schools in Vic are opening again for term 2.

My sense of relief about their closure lasted a whole 24 hours. 

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5 minutes ago, Rosie_0801 said:

 

I'm hearing from a teacher friend that schools in Vic are opening again for term 2.

My sense of relief about their closure lasted a whole 24 hours. 

I’m assuming that is two weeks away?  

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