wuhan - coronavirus

[TracyP]

4 minutes ago, square_25 said:

There are cases in every state now. There’s NO POINT in locking down NY. The cat is out of the bag. Pandora’s box has long been open.

There needs to be a national strategy and federal laws, like, yesterday. This is going to be an epic, unnecessary disaster. The longer we go on with toothless “guidance” from the national level (not to mention the misinformed reassurances that slow action), the worse it will be. 

Can you clarify what you mean here? I feel like my state is doing a fantastic job. I do not think we (in MN) need the same approach as in NY. I would love to see more guidance and stability from the federal government, but what kind of laws do you want to see enacted?

[RootAnn]

2 hours ago, Bootsie said:

Doctors, nurses, pharmacists, air traffic controllers, director of housing at universities, engineers running oil refineries are just some of those who are working.  

Plus people keeping the water supply safe, the power on, and the farmers starting to plant their crops here in the US. Saw lots of police out and about when DH & I went for a walk. (Rural midwest. Was drizzling so no one else was out for a walk, but saw three police vehicles. We have a confirmed case in our county but are in a state that is not testing unless you are in the hospital.)

@Plum, I don't know where their data is from but CNN has a chart from a couple days ago. I like using Covidtracking.com, but they don't have a by population column. 

[TracyP]

2 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I actually think a nationwide shelter in place would probably make sense at this point, unfortunately. It's a very blunt instrument, but otherwise, I think every place in the US is going to go on the same curve, and we won't be able to stop places from "sparking" other places because it's all over the place. I would also like to see them take care of purchasing of all the equipment nationally and of coordinating all the labs (state and private) nationally, then start distributing serious testing so that the approach can be changed. 

 

Yep, I'll disagree. 😉 In a nutshell, I think we are way too big for this - the U.S. that is. Maybe regional shutdowns? Maybe guidelines for when to shut down? Some states do not seem to get it, at all...

 I believe we are going to be going through rolling shut downs to some extent for the next 18-24 mos. And yep, we are going to have places "sparking" other places the entire time. I don't know how to avoid that. I think the shut downs have to be localized though. 

On testing and equipment gathering, yeah I'd like to see that. Not holding my breath, though. 

[Pen]

25 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I actually think a nationwide shelter in place would probably make sense at this point, unfortunately. It's a very blunt instrument, but otherwise, I think every place in the US is going to go on the same curve, and we won't be able to stop places from "sparking" other places because it's all over the place. I would also like to see them take care of purchasing of all the equipment nationally and of coordinating all the labs (state and private) nationally, then start distributing serious testing so that the approach can be changed. 

I would like to say that this feels like a last resort option and one that wouldn't need to be triggered, except for the failure of testing and the resulting failure of containment. We had a similar failure of containment here in NY, so it's not just at the national level. 

I know you're probably going to disagree with that, but I am terrified of what's going to happen if we don't do something like that. 

Of course, I don't actually think this will happen, so I'm guessing this will be a large-scale disaster. 

 

Contact White House (website contact form, phone line or both).  That may actually help Along with others who are also. 

They apparently do consider both comments in favor of closing down nationally and ones (Like from Aethylreth the Texan ) who want everything opened up. ( ETA  or from people who like TracyP want it decided local level and rolling for an extended time.)

I also signed the Hammer and the Dance Petition which is similar. 

Edited March 29, 2020 by Pen

[Pen]

 

3 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Oh, why do people want everything opened up? 😞

 

So they can touch up their hair roots at the beauty salon. 

[Pen]

Cross post:

 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

POSTED ON FRIDAY, MAR 27, 2020 1:14PM BY S. ABBAS RAZA

Tomas Pueyo in Medium:

Summary of the article: Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn’t be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don’t take these measures, tens of millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed.

 

 

criticism of Hammer and Dance approach:

https://www.fiphysician.com/criticism-hammer-and-dance/

Edited 12 hours ago by Pen 
Added summary from 3quarksdaily.com. And addition of a contrary view

 

 

[TracyP]

2 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

What does our size have to do with it, though? The more coordinated a response, the better. The fact that we're lucky enough to be able to order lots of people at the same time is good. If Europe COULD shut all of it down, it would be a good thing, probably. 

I'm not holding my breath on any of it, anyway. 

 

Oh, why do people want everything opened up? 😞

What is the long view? Unless we plan to shut down until we get a vaccine  - a minimum of 18 mos - we are going to have to get on with life at some point. Very, very unfortunately we have lost the opportunity to stop Covid. 

We need to slow the exponential growth, but I don't think anyone believes we are going to stop the growth. We need to get testing in place so we can keep the lid on outbreaks when they happen, that is certain. But I'm not sure what a blanket shutdown of areas with very few cases actually accomplishes in the long run.

[TracyP]

5 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

 

So they can touch up their hair roots at the beauty salon. 

That is a complete mischaracterization of some very well thought out replies on that thread. I may not agree, but geez.

[Pen]

1 minute ago, TracyP said:

What is the long view? Unless we plan to shut down until we get a vaccine  - a minimum of 18 mos - we are going to have to get on with life at some point. Very, very unfortunately we have lost the opportunity to stop Covid. 

We need to slow the exponential growth, but I don't think anyone believes we are going to stop the growth. We need to get testing in place so we can keep the lid on outbreaks when they happen, that is certain. But I'm not sure what a blanket shutdown of areas with very few cases actually accomplishes in the long run.

 

Could you read both the article linked below, and the criticism linked and then could we discuss your question?

 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

POSTED ON FRIDAY, MAR 27, 2020 1:14PM BY S. ABBAS RAZA

Tomas Pueyo in Medium:

Summary of the article: Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn’t be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don’t take these measures, tens of millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed.

 

 

criticism of Hammer and Dance approach:

https://www.fiphysician.com/criticism-hammer-and-dance/

Edited 12 hours ago by Pen 
Added summary from 3quarksdaily.com. And addition of a contrary view

[Pen]

3 hours ago, TracyP said:

That is a complete mischaracterization of some very well thought out replies on that thread. I may not agree, but geez.

 

Ok. You are right, it’s at least an oversimplification.

(ETA And yet... if that weren’t a part of it expressed by someone on another thread, how would you link what I wrote to a particular thread? )

 

We could just as well use

“so they can party on the beach” / “go to bars” college kids

”so they can hang out at the mall” teens 

 

 

 

Edited March 29, 2020 by Pen

[TracyP]

4 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Could you read both the article linked below, and the criticism linked and then could we discuss your question?

 

 

I read the first when it was posted earlier in this thread. I'll try to read the other sometime. What if we took a more nuanced approach? Like what if each state needed to

1) get testing capacity to test any symptomatic person

2) increase icu capacity to 'x' level

3) gather sufficient levels of PPE to protect healthcare workers

My state is shut down until these 3 things happen - hopefully 2 weeks. I fully support this. I'm not sure why we should stay shut down until, say, Louisiana does the same. We are a thousand miles apart. It just doesn't make sense to me.

[TracyP]

4 minutes ago, square_25 said:

The long view? Get testing ramped up so that containment becomes feasible again. Build more hospitals and buy more ventilators and train more people who can use them, stat. Test treatment protocols. Work on an antibody test. 

It's not like this is all theoretical. I know for a fact they are doing all this in NY. I imagine they are doing it elsewhere, too. And these aren't happening at a time scale of 18 months. 

100% agree. But why does MN have to stay shut down until LA does this, for example?

[Carrie12345]

55 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I actually think a nationwide shelter in place would probably make sense at this point, unfortunately. It's a very blunt instrument, but otherwise, I think every place in the US is going to go on the same curve, and we won't be able to stop places from "sparking" other places because it's all over the place. I would also like to see them take care of purchasing of all the equipment nationally and of coordinating all the labs (state and private) nationally, then start distributing serious testing so that the approach can be changed. 

I would like to say that this feels like a last resort option and one that wouldn't need to be triggered, except for the failure of testing and the resulting failure of containment. We had a similar failure of containment here in NY, so it's not just at the national level. 

I know you're probably going to disagree with that, but I am terrified of what's going to happen if we don't do something like that. 

Of course, I don't actually think this will happen, so I'm guessing this will be a large-scale disaster. 

Agreed, on all points. 
But not the kind of wussy “shelter in place/stay at home” garbage many of us have now. ACTUAL stay on your own dang property except for medical care, and possibly limited food trips. The only other people out to be the ones doing the things to keep truly essential services working (including food to people who need it.)

[TracyP]

5 minutes ago, square_25 said:

But why should these be done locally in the first place? 

Also, you're going to be affected by what happens in the states near you. Maybe not LA, but if some state near you is being a problem, you're going to have a harder time than you do otherwise. It may also be harder for you to buy equipment if it's not bought on a nationwide scale. 

To be clear, I think doing this nationwide and ramping up quickly will be less disruptive to the economy overall, not more. Having to put out giant fires for 18 months (which may be where we are going) is going to be awful. 

I have to move on, the kids want to play a game 🙂. We are going to have to agree to disagree. My governor is working closely with the states around us to join forces to gather supplies and coordinate their responses to some extent. You won't convince me that the federal government could do this better.

Edited March 29, 2020 by TracyP

[Pen]

1 minute ago, square_25 said:

 

I just replied to that thread, lol. I do agree with her that the long lines at HEB are a bigger problem than getting hair colored ;-). 

We had a babysitter come in for about a week after we stopped going out. It was probably not the optimal decision, but it was hard to give EVERYTHING up... so I get that perspective. 

 

I go into a city to shop, but it is a small city.  I have to think back to picture lines and crowding at Fairway market or Zabars or the like.  

However, face to face contact with a hair dresser for an extended time is likely quite high risk if either person has an easily spread respiratory virus.

And shopping could be spread out more as in Italy so that people aren’t crowded together.  

There no doubt are people getting sick from virus on surfaces to 3 days, virus wafting in air up to 3 hours, etc.  Still, faces near to faces and droplets is believed in what I have read to account for far more transmission. 

 

 

[Pawz4me]

2 hours ago, Plum said:

Does anyone know of a list that breaks down cases by % of state population? 
 

 

Not by state, but this site allows you to input a zip code and it will tell you the percent of cases in that county.

[Pen]

9 minutes ago, TracyP said:

I read the first when it was posted earlier in this thread. I'll try to read the other sometime. What if we took a more nuanced approach? Like what if each state needed to

1) get testing capacity to test any symptomatic person

 

You would also need testing and public health capacity for contact tracing and testing to be in operation Afaik for a state short shut down and reopen to be successful 

9 minutes ago, TracyP said:

2) increase icu capacity to 'x' level

3) gather sufficient levels of PPE to protect healthcare workers

 

And for emergency responders and for teachers and for _____ many occupations, not just healthcare.  Or at least the ~ 40% of adult population with higher risk factors 

9 minutes ago, TracyP said:

My state is shut down until these 3 things happen - hopefully 2 weeks. I fully support this. I'm not sure why we should stay shut down until, say, Louisiana does the same. We are a thousand miles apart. It just doesn't make sense to me.

 

If you will have your state borders shut (effectively) to arrivals from other states until  21 days after all were in compliance with same types of things your state does, so already with their transmission under control for a state with very little CV19 and to take a hard quarantine and contact tracing period then to open up in itself, but not to outside, that could possibly work, I think.  But it would depend on your states being like a little self sufficient country  unto itself, I think.  No trucking supplies in from elsewhere, no Amazon, no UPS etc, bringing in cases, no tourists or business travelers  from New York or Louisiana .  Otherwise it might be like your state being Taiwan, but open to people coming in from Wuhan. 

By instead shutting all “nonessential” activities it allows for essential goods and services to move between states as an activity of risk, but for that to be to some degree balanced with far less opportunity for viral transmission internally.  

And you may be 1000 miles from New Orleans, but not so far in time and access by modern travel , nor so far from other places with problems like NY, Chicago... (what is happening in Detroit?)    

 

[Pen]

25 minutes ago, square_25 said:

That's what Cuomo was saying -- that closing state borders is a logistical nightmare. What about the mail? What about supplies? This can't be done without careful planning. I can imagine it being a good idea, but it can't be spur of the moment. 

 

I am inclined to think keeping essential production and supplies chains open (with increasing PPE available for workers in those areas and Nat Guard help too if needed eg young people to do trucking instead of at risk older commercial drivers)  is better approach.

And to shut down nonessentials for time needed.

[Arcadia]

“Starting Sunday, UCSF Medical Center adopted a universal mask rule, meaning that everyone who enters the hospital will be given a mask that must be worn inside the building. Salesforce is providing the supplies to make this possible.
http://nbcbay.com/PupP43z”

[TracyP]

30 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

You would also need testing and public health capacity for contact tracing and testing to be in operation Afaik for a state short shut down and reopen to be successful 

 

And for emergency responders and for teachers and for _____ many occupations, not just healthcare.  Or at least the ~ 40% of adult population with higher risk factors 

 

If you will have your state borders shut (effectively) to arrivals from other states until  21 days after all were in compliance with same types of things your state does, so already with their transmission under control for a state with very little CV19 and to take a hard quarantine and contact tracing period then to open up in itself, but not to outside, that could possibly work, I think.  But it would depend on your states being like a little self sufficient country  unto itself, I think.  No trucking supplies in from elsewhere, no Amazon, no UPS etc, bringing in cases, no tourists or business travelers  from New York or Louisiana .  Otherwise it might be like your state being Taiwan, but open to people coming in from Wuhan. 

By instead shutting all “nonessential” activities it allows for essential goods and services to move between states as an activity of risk, but for that to be to some degree balanced with far less opportunity for viral transmission internally.  

And you may be 1000 miles from New Orleans, but not so far in time and access by modern travel , nor so far from other places with problems like NY, Chicago... (what is happening in Detroit?)    

 

I can't break up quote on my phone; hopefully you can follow my replies.

Yes, and the capability to contract trace would be a part of that.

Well, teaching is online here officially until May 1 and likely for the remainder of the year. I would consider first responders to be health care providers so, yes to that. I'm not sure what PPE for "high risk" populations means in this context.

I am watching people from high risk areas come to their cabins in my area. I am so not thrilled about it... sigh. But my state isn't putting these measures in place so we can stop covid. It is putting them in place so we can slow covid. So we can identify pockets when they pop up and control them before they get out of hand. Again, the long view.

[Arcadia]

@Jenny in Florida and all the Florida people, this news is scary 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/covid19-coronavirus-zaandam-passengers-transferred-12587478

“The ship's Dutch owner Holland America said Friday four passengers had died and two more had tested positive for COVID-19.

...

Passengers showing no signs of the virus were ferried from the Zaandam to the Rotterdam on Saturday, a French tourist told AFP by telephone.

...

Panama's Maritime Affairs Minister Noriel Arauz told AFP that 401 passengers who had tested negative for COVID-19 would be allowed to leave the Zaandam.

People who were ill and those who had been in contact with them will not be transferred.

The Zaandam will now head to Fort Lauderdale in Florida, where the remaining passengers will be able to disembark, according to Holland America and Panamanian officials.

The Rotterdam is expected to return to San Diego, Arauz said.”

[RootAnn]

The call is going out for people with 3D printers to help by printing the frames for face shields. I've seen a few on YouTube. This one is for the area my DD attends college. I am hopeful when people work together to solve problems.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=t-01gQS6AKU&feature=youtu.be

[Arcadia]

10 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

The call is going out for people with 3D printers to help by printing the frames for face shields. I've seen a few on YouTube. 

FYI info and the STL files needed for 3D printing   🙂

https://www.prusaprinters.org/prints/25857-prusa-protective-face-shield-rc2

https://formlabs.com/covid-19-response/

https://www.carbon3d.com/covid19/

[chiguirre]

1 hour ago, square_25 said:

 

I just replied to that thread, lol. I do agree with her that the long lines at HEB are a bigger problem than getting hair colored ;-). 

HEB has set up social distancing lines outside their stores and limited how many people can be inside at once. They've also put up plexiglass in front of the checkers. They still don't have masks for employees.

[sangtarah]

https://www.3newsnow.com/news/coronavirus/study-documents-how-environment-is-contaminated-by-covid-19-patients
 

UNMC is studying the contamination of air and surfaces. They found significant airborne contamination inside patient rooms and in hallways outside patient rooms. 
Study link:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.23.20039446v2

Edited March 29, 2020 by sangtarah

[BeachGal]

Viruses are not static. They can change genetically as they replicate. Usually they’re not consequential but every so often a significant change occurs which results in the virus affecting the host differently, usually for the better for the host.

They are seeing some strains of sars-cov-2 from Singapore with genetic deletions that are similar to the deletions that were seen in the viruses that caused MERS and SARS as they became less virulent. At this point, nothing has been proven but it would not be unusual for a virus to do this. Here is the preprint (not peer reviewed yet).

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.987222v1

Quote

To date, the SARS-CoV-2 genome has been considered genetically more stable than SARS-CoV or MERS-CoV. Here we report a 382-nt deletion covering almost the entire open reading frame 8 (ORF8) of SARS-CoV-2 obtained from eight hospitalized patients in Singapore. The deletion also removes the ORF8 transcription-regulatory sequence (TRS), which in turn enhances the downstream transcription of the N gene. We also found that viruses with the deletion have been circulating for at least four weeks. During the SARS-CoV outbreak in 2003, a number of genetic variants were observed in the human population [1], and similar variation has since been observed across SARS-related CoVs in humans and bats. Overwhelmingly these viruses had mutations or deletions in ORF8, that have been associated with reduced replicative fitness of the virus [2]. This is also consistent with the observation that towards the end of the outbreak sequences obtained from human SARS cases possessed an ORF8 deletion that may be associated with host adaptation [1]. We therefore hypothesise that the major deletion revealed in this study may lead to an attenuated phenotype of SARS-CoV-2.

 

 

 

[Pen]

11 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I think we could have contained thing a month ago! I'm not saying containment is innately stupid! I just think we're past the point where that's a reasonable strategy, especially given that most places still can't really test enough. As I said, my personal belief is that the cat is out of the bag. 

 

I think being right in NYC that probably makes it seem different than if you were in some other location.

 I think people need to think some about what makes life possible. 

Breathable Air, potable water, sewage systems, not having nuclear meltdowns, food...  running water for sanitation...  hopefully also having electricity and communications functioning, (National defense capabilities...) 

It remains very important to work with containment still  imo so that critical function areas are not wiped out.    And opening things up puts the basics needed at risk for catastrophe 

 

[ElizabethB]

5 hours ago, Plum said:

Does anyone know of a list that breaks down cases by % of state population? 
 

 

There is a nice map on this thread started by @Margaret in CO:

 

[Pen]

3 hours ago, TracyP said:

I read the first when it was posted earlier in this thread. I'll try to read the other sometime. What if we took a more nuanced approach? Like what if each state needed to

1) get testing capacity to test any symptomatic person

2) increase icu capacity to 'x' level

3) gather sufficient levels of PPE to protect healthcare workers

My state is shut down until these 3 things happen - hopefully 2 weeks. I fully support this. I'm not sure why we should stay shut down until, say, Louisiana does the same. We are a thousand miles apart. It just doesn't make sense to me.

 

I looked up Minnesota on charts and it appears to have similar official confirmed cases to my own state and probably similar hospital beds, icu beds, etc.  

or also perhaps somewhat similar to New Zealand

As long though as MN were to be accepting travel in from elsewhere though, risk remains high for virus to take off on rapid exponential growth within vulnerable population.  What number of ICU or PPE does MN need to protect it adequately?  

What does MAYO say?

I would give a lot of credence to Mayo MN experts whatever they say about how to handle MN situation and if they are geared up properly and for what.

 I tried to google that and didn’t find anything however.

That is I found that they are working on development of testing, limiting hospital visitors, etc, — but not what they think medical services in MN can handle. 

[Pen]

@Plum  Worldometer has confirmed cases per state and you could look up state populations chart and then do the division in there isn’t a site with that already done

[matrips]

How did 39 million n95 masks just get ‘found’ after Barr threatened to find and prosecute hoarders.?  And they’re only selling them at a 700% markup. 🙄

but the medical teams will have them at least.

[Arcadia]

2 minutes ago, Pen said:

@Plum  Worldometer has confirmed cases per state and you could look up state populations chart and then do the division in there isn’t a site with that already done

Scroll to the end of article 

https://www.providencejournal.com/news/20200328/ri-down-notch-to-14th-in-nation-in-per-capita-coronavirus-cases
“

Coronavirus cases per capita

Rank	State	Cases	Population	Rate
1	New York	38,987	19.45	2,004.47
2	New Jersey	6,876	8.88	774.32
3	Louisiana	2,305	4.65	495.70
4	Washington	3,208	7.61	421.55
	Washington, DC	267	0.71	376.06
5	Massachusetts	2,417	6.89	350.80
6	Michigan	2,878	9.99	288.09
7	Connecticut	1,012	3.57	283.47
8	Vermont	158	0.62	254.84
9	Colorado	1,432	5.76	248.61
10	Illinois	2,538	12.67	200.32
11	Nevada	535	3.08	173.70
12	Mississippi	487	2.98	163.42
13	Rhode Island	165	1.06	155.66
14	Georgia	1,643	10.62	154.71
15	Delaware	143	0.97	147.42
16	Tennessee	981	6.83	143.63
17	Pennsylvania	1,690	12.8	132.03
18	Wisconsin	754	5.82	129.55
19	Utah	402	3.21	125.23
20	New Hampshire	158	1.36	116.18
21	Maine	155	1.34	115.67
22	Arkansas	349	3.02	115.56
23	Florida	2,477	21.48	115.32
24	Alabama	531	4.9	108.37
25	Idaho	189	1.79	105.59
26	California	4,060	39.51	102.76
27	Indiana	656	6.73	97.47
28	Wyoming	56	0.58	96.55
29	Maryland	581	6.05	96.03
30	Alaska	69	0.73	94.52
31	South Carolina	456	5.15	88.54
32	Montana	90	1.07	84.11
33	Missouri	507	6.14	82.57
34	North Dakota	58	0.76	76.32
35	Oregon	316	4.22	74.88
36	Hawaii	106	1.42	74.65
37	Ohio	867	11.69	74.17
38	Arizona	508	7.28	69.78
39	New Mexico	136	2.1	64.76
40	Oklahoma	248	3.96	62.63
41	Minnesota	346	5.64	61.35
42	North Carolina	638	10.49	60.82
43	Kansas	171	2.91	58.76
44	Iowa	179	3.16	56.65
45	Kentucky	248	4.47	55.48
46	Virginia	461	8.54	53.98
47	Texas	1,543	29	53.21
48	South Dakota	46	0.88	52.27
49	Nebraska	92	1.93	47.67
50	West Virginia	76	1.79	42.46

Cases are as of 8:45 a.m. Saturday, as reported by the New York Times. Population is in millions. Rate is cases per 1 million people.”

[SKL]

20 hours ago, lewelma said:

I am starting to think that only upper and middle class people in America are going into lockdown. There are a ton of poorly paid workers serving all the people in isolation.  DH was just talking to his mom on the phone, and she said that in Ohio she can still order home delivery from restaurants and stuff from Amazon.  So you have chefs, delivery people, amazon warehouse people, and grocery store check out staff still working and serving the people who have the means to stay at home and avoid exposure.  I feel really yucky about this.

As long as they are practicing the appropriate social distancing and hygiene, I think this is OK.

I worry more about the people who are in health care and first responders, who are a huge chunk of our local population, and who don't have the option of social distancing.  Yet we can't really tell them to stay home.

[Pen]

Credit to @Jean in Newcastle and @Kassia on another thread

 

https://youtu.be/BoDwXwZXsDI

 

Very worth watching!

[TracyP]

18 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

I looked up Minnesota on charts and it appears to have similar official confirmed cases to my own state and probably similar hospital beds, icu beds, etc.  

or also perhaps somewhat similar to New Zealand

As long though as MN were to be accepting travel in from elsewhere though, risk remains high for virus to take off on rapid exponential growth within vulnerable population.  What number of ICU or PPE does MN need to protect it adequately?  

What does MAYO say?

I would give a lot of credence to Mayo MN experts whatever they say about how to handle MN situation and if they are geared up properly and for what.

 I tried to google that and didn’t find anything however.

That is I found that they are working on development of testing, limiting hospital visitors, etc, — but not what they think medical services in MN can handle. 

I understand from the governor's daily briefings that the Mayo is one of the places they are working with to get input on a daily basis. I don't know what they are suggesting though - I wish I did! 

We have 1300 vents, I'm not sure how many more we are projected to need. A 90 bed (negative pressure icu) hospital dedicated solely to covid got up and running on Friday. 2 sites were toured on Friday that are meant to be used for hospitalization purposes, though I'm unclear what kind of patients they would serve.

[Pen]

35 minutes ago, Plum said:

Thank you that’s perfect.
My county represents 75% of the state population. We’re number 11 with barely any testing. Yikes. I want to look at deaths per pop to compare but I think I’ll have to do the math myself. 

 

Not sure chart up to date? 

NY seems to now be at almost 60,000 confirmed.

The chart has it still under 40,000

[JennyD]

Update from Israel: 4246 cases, 15 deaths.  We have been under a lockdown more stringent than anything in the US for two weeks now, and then a much more stringent one (can't go more than 100 meters from home except for groceries, enforced by police) since Wednesday.  Cases are not leveling off yet.  

Some of the new cases are Israelis coming back from abroad, but reports are that infections are also skyrocketing in haredi (ultra-Orthodox) communities.  These communities are poor, incredibly crowded, and residents have very very limited information about what is going on.  There is a lot of discussion, both productive and not, about how this should be handled.  There are already enormous tensions between the haredim and the rest of Israeli society and this is definitely not helping, to say the least.  

One of the harsh lessons of this pandemic seems to be that whatever your particular society's underlying pathologies may be, this sort of crisis will dramatically exacerbate them.  

Good news is that the country is now testing 6000 people a day and the government insists it will get to as many as 30,000/day within the next two weeks.  For reference, South Korea has 5 times Israel's population and tests about 15,000 people a day, so this is a lot of testing.  A pilot program offering tests to supermarket shoppers and workers starts in a couple of stores tomorrow and if it works will be expanded.  

 

 

[Arcadia]

48 minutes ago, Plum said:

Thank you that’s perfect.
My county represents 75% of the state population. We’re number 11 with barely any testing. Yikes. I want to look at deaths per pop to compare but I think I’ll have to do the math myself. 

Here is another article. The table is much longer with all the states but I have problem copying. 

“Data as of Mar. 29 at 9:54 AM. Published March 27, 2020

 

State	Confirmed cases	Deaths	Change from Friday
New York	53,520	834	307 deaths	+58%
Washington	4,318	189	32	+20%
New Jersey	11,124	170	62	+57%
Louisiana	3,315	137	18	+15%
California	5,648	120	26	+28%
Michigan	4,659	112	20	+22%
Georgia	2,446	79	15	+23%
Florida	4,038	54	19	+54%
Illinois	3,498	47	13	+38%
Colorado	2,063	44	17	+63%
Massachusetts	4,257	44	9	+26%

”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/

 

11 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Not sure chart up to date? 

NY seems to now be at almost 60,000 confirmed.

The chart has it still under 40,000

The chart was last updated on Saturday morning. It was stated in the part I quoted.

[Wheres Toto]

NJ is doing very limited testing so I'm sure those numbers (scary as they are) aren't completely accurate. 

[Arcadia]

https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-human-os/biomedical/devices/healthcare-team-designed-3dprinted-tested-covid19-swabs-one-week

“To Answer Dire Shortages, This Healthcare Team Designed, 3D-Printed, and Tested Their Own COVID-19 Swabs in One Week

The NYC-based group is now producing and distributing 2,000 specialty test swabs per day and plans to release the specs

...

On Friday, medical staff reported back that the swabs worked reliably, so on Saturday morning the team began printing full-blast, says Goldstein. Northwell has six automated Form 3D printers, able to operate 24/7 with minimal oversight, plus two stand alone machines that require frequent manual intervention. Under normal circumstances, the printers are used to make things like anatomical models, surgical guides, and the first amphibious prosthetic leg.

The swabs have FDA Class I exempt status, so they can be made and distributed to medical centers. “Our hospitals need these now,” says Goldstein. “If we have enough swabs here and other hospitals around us don’t have enough, we’re happy to send some to them. We’re all in the same boat. If we have extra resources, we’re going to give them to you.”

The team plans to release the design for anyone with a Formlabs printer to print, he adds. “Any single dental lab can start making these swabs tomorrow if they wanted to, and help out their local hospital.””

[Carrie12345]

1 hour ago, Plum said:

Cases are as of 8:45 a.m. Saturday, as reported by the New York Times. Population is in millions. Rate is cases per 1 million people

The NYT listed my county (well, nearest small city, but attributed the whole county’s population) in a chart this morning. 0.4 per thousand. I regret converting that to per millions! (Which we don’t have, lol.)

ETA: Our health secretary was specifically asked about our region this morning, and she completely sidestepped the question. 

Local reports this morning say our hospital admissions are currently 50% COVID-related.

Edited March 29, 2020 by Carrie12345

[TCB]

3 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-human-os/biomedical/devices/healthcare-team-designed-3dprinted-tested-covid19-swabs-one-week

“To Answer Dire Shortages, This Healthcare Team Designed, 3D-Printed, and Tested Their Own COVID-19 Swabs in One Week

The NYC-based group is now producing and distributing 2,000 specialty test swabs per day and plans to release the specs

...

On Friday, medical staff reported back that the swabs worked reliably, so on Saturday morning the team began printing full-blast, says Goldstein. Northwell has six automated Form 3D printers, able to operate 24/7 with minimal oversight, plus two stand alone machines that require frequent manual intervention. Under normal circumstances, the printers are used to make things like anatomical models, surgical guides, and the first amphibious prosthetic leg.

The swabs have FDA Class I exempt status, so they can be made and distributed to medical centers. “Our hospitals need these now,” says Goldstein. “If we have enough swabs here and other hospitals around us don’t have enough, we’re happy to send some to them. We’re all in the same boat. If we have extra resources, we’re going to give them to you.”

The team plans to release the design for anyone with a Formlabs printer to print, he adds. “Any single dental lab can start making these swabs tomorrow if they wanted to, and help out their local hospital.””

This is fantastic! We are running low on swabs. Great to think there may be a way of producing them locally!

[Condessa]

The New York City mayor is threatening to permanently close synagogues and churches that refuse to shut down for quarantine.

https://m.jpost.com/Diaspora/NYC-Mayor-to-synagogues-Close-for-coronavirus-or-be-shut-down-permanently-622767

“The mayor called on religious citizens, asking that anyone who witnesses services taking place to report to the congregation's officials and request them to stop services.  Should that not be enough, the authorities may "need to take additional action up to the point of fines and potentially closing the building permanently."

 

While I think these religious congregations should absolutely be cooperating, this is insane.  What kind of power-crazed dictator does he think he is?

Edited March 29, 2020 by Michelle Conde

[Condessa]

dp

Edited March 29, 2020 by Michelle Conde

[Jean in Newcastle]

2 minutes ago, Michelle Conde said:

The New York City mayor is threatening to permanently close synagogues and churches that refuse to shut down for quarantine.

https://m.jpost.com/Diaspora/NYC-Mayor-to-synagogues-Close-for-coronavirus-or-be-shut-down-permanently-622767

“The mayor called on religious citizens, asking that anyone who witnesses services taking place to report to the congregation's officials and request them to stop services.  Should that not be enough, the authorities may "need to take additional action up to the point of fines and potentially closing the building permanently."

 

While I think these religious congregations should absolutely be cooperating, this is insane.  What kind of power-crazed dictator does he think he is?

That is a graduated approach for those who have not responded to the verbal quarantine order and who then don't respond to fines.  It's the same graduated approach that government has to take in many situations IF PEOPLE REFUSE TO LISTEN.  So jumping to "power-crazed dictator" is a gross over-reaction. 

[Condessa]

2 minutes ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

One who cares about the lives of the citizens in his care?  

 

Closing religious institutions forever, after the emergency is over, is not a power given to any political figure in our country.

[Condessa]

2 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

That is a graduated approach for those who have not responded to the verbal quarantine order and who then don't respond to fines.  It's the same graduated approach that government has to take in many situations IF PEOPLE REFUSE TO LISTEN.  So jumping to "power-crazed dictator" is a gross over-reaction. 

 

Wouldn’t taking legal action against the individuals violating the quarantine order, up to imprisonment if necessary, make more sense than threatening unconstitutional illegal action that will affect congregants not currently choosing to attend, for years to come?

[Condessa]

9 minutes ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

Where does it say anything about closing them forever?  The emergency is far from over.

 

“closing the building permanently."

Edited March 29, 2020 by Michelle Conde

[Katy]

1 minute ago, Michelle Conde said:

 

Closing religious institutions forever, after the emergency is over, is not a power given to any political figure in our country.

 

Yes it is, for at least three reasons off the top of my head. 

1. It falls under eminent domain, which the supreme court ruled in favor of.  If something in a location doesn't serve the best interests of the city, local government can force it to be closed and sold. 
2. Ignoring Quarantines and continuing to spread disease definitely isn't constitutional. 
3. Several Attorneys General, both state and federal, have stated that willfully spreading CV-19 can probably be prosecuted under federal terrorism laws.

What he doesn't have the ability to do is change anyone's religion or prevent the same people from opening a religious institution in another location when this is over.  But he can certainly have them criminally prosecuted for all the lives who died because of their refusal to follow legal orders.

[Pen]

I’m not sure if this sort of thing is available for all states or not:

https://govsite-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/VooxlwVoTey3aArqqFkG_Oregon-COVID-19-Projections-2020-03-23.pdf