wuhan - coronavirus

[kbutton]

8 hours ago, whitehawk said:

The story from Hanover Twp, PA is not the slightest bit surprising to me. I lived in the area for some time and there's a truly mean cultural undercurrent (as well as some lovely people). I wouldn't be surprised if the perpetrator was a child or other relative of someone I went to high school with. I think it's time for DAs to pore over state law books for the right charges & set an example.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/grocery-store-throws-out-35k-worth-food-woman-coughed-twisted-n1169401

Update on the story. The person who did it is known to be a nuisance in the community. 

6 hours ago, pitterpatter said:

Typically, patients who can't get off ventilators are sent to long-term care facilities, which are just the type of places the virus would run rampant in. What will happen to patients who need longer to recover but time is up on the hospitals' ventilators?

There is talk in Ohio of using hotels and dorms for patients--I wonder if the patients who need longer term recovery are good candidates for those conditions.

5 hours ago, Acadie said:

The good news is that Ohio has seen a decrease in ILI activity over the past 2 weeks which suggests that we should not expect a huge surge in COVID 19 activity in the next few weeks. Click here for OH flu data.

That doesn’t mean we should let up on our vigilance and our distancing.  It simply means that our efforts at flattening the curve may be helping. 

That would be welcome news. The state's health department seems to think we're continuing to push out that curve. 

[Pen]

https://youtu.be/uzJgPvukzTE

 

 

Man (Doctor) with CV19 describing symptoms 

Edited March 28, 2020 by Pen

[Pen]

Younger very athletic man describes his CV19 and some lasting damage 

https://youtu.be/tbAYN9zKIJQ

 

https://youtu.be/tbAYN9zKIJQ

Edited March 28, 2020 by Pen

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/27/nation/mass-public-health-commissioner-tests-positive-covid-19/?outputType=amp#click=https://t.co/UnGc3PIz2t
 

Massachusetts public health commissioner tests positive

[Ausmumof3]

Two major hotels in my town announced they’re closing.  I’m speculating that they may be planning for being a quarantine option.  

[Ausmumof3]

Photos published by Caixin of a delivery of large quantity of urns in #Wuhan have raised questions in #China re whether the actual #coronavirus death toll has been higher than that reported in the worst hit city? 汉口殡仪馆亲属排队领骨灰 未预约需排队5小时 http://m.photos.caixin.com/m/2020-03-26/101534542.html
 

[Arcadia]

@MeaganS@TCB

https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/coronavirus/doctor-tent-garage-orange-county-irvine-california-covid-19-coronavirus/2335884/

“Desperate and uncertain times call for unusual measures, especially for medical professionals on the frontlines of a pandemic and their families. 

Consider Dr. Timmy Cheng, an Irvine pulmonary and critical care specialist who treated several COVID-19 patients in mid-March. He moved into his family’s garage, camping out in a tent to protect his family from the novel coronavirus. 

Inside the tent, Dr. Cheng has a twin mattress, laptop and snacks. 

The family, including his wife, a toddler and parents, follows a strict process when bringing him meals.

“I can still see my family, we just keep our distance,” Dr. Cheng said. “They bring me food from the garage door. They drop it off at the doorway, they run away, then I go pick up the food.”

As of Thursday, more than 150 cases of COVID-19 had been reported in Orange County, including one death. The majority of those infected are in the 18-40 age group.

Cheng's Facebook post included a heartfelt plea: "So, here it is. My home for the next __???__ weeks or months. You can help me and other healthcare workers become un-homeless by STAYING HOME. JUST DO IT. Nobody is too cool to stay home. Nobody is too healthy to get sick. STAY HOME and help stop the spread of this virus. Countless doctors, nurses, and other health care workers are working hard to save YOUR LIFE. The least you could do is stay home so that we, too, can go home to our loved ones one day."”

[Arcadia]

2 minutes ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

 

I thought that the virus was called the coronavirus, or the novel coronavirus and COVID-19 was the disease.  I thought that it literally stood for COronaVIrus Disease.  

 

8 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Isn't... the virus that causes coronavirus disease... called the coronavirus?? Or COVID-19, if you want to be more precise?? 

 

“CLINICAL

• COVID-19 is the disease, SARS-CoV-2 is the virus.” https://www.hopkinsguides.com/hopkins/view/Johns_Hopkins_ABX_Guide/540747/all/Coronavirus_COVID_19__SARS_CoV_2_

[Arcadia]

@mathnerd

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/fda-gives-the-green-light-to-portable-covid-19-testing-kit/2263068/

“A company with offices in the Bay Area just got the FDA's green light to start sending out a portable COVID-19 test that takes just minutes to show a result.

Abbott Labs, an East coast company with offices in Santa Clara, has been working on the portable testing platform and now that they got the go, it’s expected to test 50,000 people a day.

“It's the size of a small kitchen appliance,” said Gavin Cloherty, head of Infectious Disease research at Abbott Labs.

The pharmaceutical company said it will ramp up production and hopes to eventually produce up to 5 million tests per month.

“It generates accurate test results in a matter of minutes, instead of hours or days, which enables a healthcare provider to see a patient, diagnose a patient, and take necessary interventions in a very short amount of time," said CEO Tom Siebel.

Abbott said it will make the tests available to healthcare providers in an urgent care setting and they should be available in about  a week.”

ETA:

Twitter link https://mobile.twitter.com/AbbottNews/status/1243680163054915584

Edited March 28, 2020 by Arcadia

[mathnerd]

9 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

@mathnerd

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/fda-gives-the-green-light-to-portable-covid-19-testing-kit/2263068/

“A company with offices in the Bay Area just got the FDA's green light to start sending out a portable COVID-19 test that takes just minutes to show a result.

Abbott Labs, an East coast company with offices in Santa Clara, has been working on the portable testing platform and now that they got the go, it’s expected to test 50,000 people a day.

“It's the size of a small kitchen appliance,” said Gavin Cloherty, head of Infectious Disease research at Abbott Labs.

The pharmaceutical company said it will ramp up production and hopes to eventually produce up to 5 million tests per month.

“It generates accurate test results in a matter of minutes, instead of hours or days, which enables a healthcare provider to see a patient, diagnose a patient, and take necessary interventions in a very short amount of time," said CEO Tom Siebel.

Abbott said it will make the tests available to healthcare providers in an urgent care setting and they should be available in about  a week.”

ETA:

Twitter link https://mobile.twitter.com/AbbottNews/status/1243680163054915584

Yay! I might buy one if it becomes freely available. Thanks!

[Pen]

 Vitamin D reminders 👋😁  — f1st having to do with mouse studies and lungs; 2nd with upper respiratory tract infection (neither specifically on CV19, but both of interest to me) 

https://youtu.be/2pyp9VwFR4s

https://youtu.be/fmDng_uMCnY

 

And one that caught my interest not related to vitamin D   ... hmm lost it... maybe later ☺️ 

[Arcadia]

1 minute ago, mathnerd said:

Yay! I might buy one if it becomes freely available. Thanks!

https://abbott.mediaroom.com/2020-03-27-Abbott-Launches-Molecular-Point-of-Care-Test-to-Detect-Novel-Coronavirus-in-as-Little-as-Five-Minutes
“The arrival of the Abbott ID NOW COVID-19 test comes a week after the company launched its Abbott m2000™ RealTime SARS-CoV-2 EUA test, which runs on the m2000™ RealTime System located in hospital and reference labs around the world. Between the two platforms, Abbott expects to produce about 5 million tests per month.

The ID NOW COVID-19 EUA has not been FDA cleared or approved. It has been authorized by the FDA under an emergency use authorization for use by authorized laboratories and patient care settings. The test has been authorized only for the detection of nucleic acid from SARS-CoV-2, not for any other viruses or pathogens, and is only authorized for the duration of the declaration that circumstances exist justifying the authorization of emergency use of in vitro diagnostic tests for detection and/or diagnosis of COVID-19 under Section 564(b)(1) of the Act, 21 U.S.C. § 360bbb-3(b)(1), unless the authorization is terminated or revoked sooner.”

[TCB]

1 hour ago, Arcadia said:

@MeaganS@TCB

https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/coronavirus/doctor-tent-garage-orange-county-irvine-california-covid-19-coronavirus/2335884/

“Desperate and uncertain times call for unusual measures, especially for medical professionals on the frontlines of a pandemic and their families. 

Consider Dr. Timmy Cheng, an Irvine pulmonary and critical care specialist who treated several COVID-19 patients in mid-March. He moved into his family’s garage, camping out in a tent to protect his family from the novel coronavirus. 

Inside the tent, Dr. Cheng has a twin mattress, laptop and snacks. 

The family, including his wife, a toddler and parents, follows a strict process when bringing him meals.

“I can still see my family, we just keep our distance,” Dr. Cheng said. “They bring me food from the garage door. They drop it off at the doorway, they run away, then I go pick up the food.”

As of Thursday, more than 150 cases of COVID-19 had been reported in Orange County, including one death. The majority of those infected are in the 18-40 age group.

Cheng's Facebook post included a heartfelt plea: "So, here it is. My home for the next __???__ weeks or months. You can help me and other healthcare workers become un-homeless by STAYING HOME. JUST DO IT. Nobody is too cool to stay home. Nobody is too healthy to get sick. STAY HOME and help stop the spread of this virus. Countless doctors, nurses, and other health care workers are working hard to save YOUR LIFE. The least you could do is stay home so that we, too, can go home to our loved ones one day."”

I don’t know what to do myself. I’ve been coming in from work through the basement and stripping everything off, getting in the shower and throwing everything in the washing machine. But things are only just getting going here so now I’m thinking about staying in the basement and just seeing my kids and husband outside.

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, square_25 said:

Germany's estimated CFR keeps inching up -- I'm now getting something like 0.7% for deaths/cases. Not a great sign. 

So does South Korea's, by the way -- it's at 1.5%. 

I really wish we'd do some randomization and get a better sense. 

Bno have the percentage calc in their list from the last few days

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/03/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

 

 

[Ausmumof3]

Just now, square_25 said:

Thanks! I've just been messing with the JHU data myself, but this is helpful. 

One thing to note with diamond princess they only counted the deaths in Japan.  The one that happened in Aus was counted as Australian and probably same if their were others.

[Terabith]

Tangentially related question:  how do you guys clean your phones?  

[Terabith]

Just now, CuriousMomof3 said:

 

I use alcohol wipes.  But we bought them before the virus.  I think they'd be hard to get now.  This is like what we use. 

https://www.amazon.com/Pharma-C-Wipes-70-Isopropyl-Alcohol-Canisters/dp/B076NX9NW9/ref=sr_1_5?dchild=1&keywords=alcohol+wipes&qid=1585368638&s=industrial&sr=1-5

 

 

Awesome!  Thank you!  I bought some marketed as glasses wipes when I was worried about the virus but nobody else was.  That's what I've been using, but I wasn't sure if it was "good enough."

[Terabith]

1 minute ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

 

I think the big question is whether it's getting things wet enough.  Alcohol has to saturate, but we did some research, looking at flu not COVID and decided this was our best option.

Yeah, but there's a fine line between "wet enough to be clean" but "not wet enough to damage the electronics."  

[mathnerd]

36 minutes ago, Terabith said:

Tangentially related question:  how do you guys clean your phones?  

I use the Clorox disinfecting wipes and thoroughly wipe down the cases and the phones once a day (and also every time a family member has to leave the house for groceries or gas). Apple approved of it recently as virus fears increased: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/10/tech/apple-iphone-clorox/index.html

while I am at it, I go around the house and wipe down all the light switches, door knobs inside and outside and toilet handles with clorox wipes (this is part of my new shelter-in-place routine).

 

Edited March 28, 2020 by mathnerd

[TrixieB]

57 minutes ago, Terabith said:

Tangentially related question:  how do you guys clean your phones?  

Alcohol wipes - the kind used to swab the skin prior to an injection.

[Ausmumof3]

NPR but an article on a number of WuhAn doctors Testing positive again after recovery

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/822407626/mystery-in-wuhan-recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-negative-then-positive

[Pen]

I can use my cellphone through a plastic baggie or cling wrap

then I can even wash the baggie if I don’t want to waste them

Edited March 28, 2020 by Pen

[Pen]

11 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

NPR but an article on a number of WuhAn doctors Testing positive again after recovery

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/822407626/mystery-in-wuhan-recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-negative-then-positive

 

😳

This is an amazing virus.

Hard to believe it’s just a natural bat virus. 

😳

 

[Arcadia]

🙂🧸

New Zealand 🇳🇿 @lewelma@kiwik

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/120565486/prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-endorses-popular-teddy-bear-hunt-during-coronavirus-lockdown
“Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern endorses popular teddy bear hunt during coronavirus lockdown

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says people in her Wellington neighbourhood may just spot a teddy bear in her window. 

In her daily update to the nation on Wednesday, Ardern said she supported the social-distanced teddy bear hunt. 

The teddy bear hunt began on Monday after news broke that New Zealand would go into lockdown at 11.59pm on Wednesday. 

The fun idea started on Facebook from London, inspired by the Michael Rosen children's book We're Going on a Bear Hunt.

The teddy bear hunt trend has caught on in suburbs in Auckland, Tauranga, New Plymouth, Palmerston North, Wellington, Nelson, Christchurch and Dunedin.

People are encouraged to prop a teddy bear from a window of their home, visible from the road. 

The fun initiative was aimed at brightening little spirits when they go for walks with their families around their neighbourhood. 

New Zealanders have been told to remain home during the nationwide lockdown, but solitary exercise and visits to essential services were allowed.

People can also take children or dogs to a park or field for walks, as long as they maintain social distancing with others outside of their self-isolation groups”

[vonfirmath]

17 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

🙂🧸

New Zealand 🇳🇿 @lewelma@kiwik

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/120565486/prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-endorses-popular-teddy-bear-hunt-during-coronavirus-lockdown
“Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern endorses popular teddy bear hunt during coronavirus lockdown

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says people in her Wellington neighbourhood may just spot a teddy bear in her window. 

In her daily update to the nation on Wednesday, Ardern said she supported the social-distanced teddy bear hunt. 

The teddy bear hunt began on Monday after news broke that New Zealand would go into lockdown at 11.59pm on Wednesday. 

The fun idea started on Facebook from London, inspired by the Michael Rosen children's book We're Going on a Bear Hunt.

The teddy bear hunt trend has caught on in suburbs in Auckland, Tauranga, New Plymouth, Palmerston North, Wellington, Nelson, Christchurch and Dunedin.

People are encouraged to prop a teddy bear from a window of their home, visible from the road. 

The fun initiative was aimed at brightening little spirits when they go for walks with their families around their neighbourhood. 

New Zealanders have been told to remain home during the nationwide lockdown, but solitary exercise and visits to essential services were allowed.

People can also take children or dogs to a park or field for walks, as long as they maintain social distancing with others outside of their self-isolation groups”

 

Our neighborhood (near Austin, TX) did this at the beginning of the week. I don't know where it started but someone inside the neighborhood saw it and suggested.

 

They've also done sidewalk chalk and are looking at an "easter egg hunt"

People are coloring easter eggs ahead to "hide" around the yard on easter morning.

[Ausmumof3]

21 minutes ago, vonfirmath said:

 

Our neighborhood (near Austin, TX) did this at the beginning of the week. I don't know where it started but someone inside the neighborhood saw it and suggested.

 

They've also done sidewalk chalk and are looking at an "easter egg hunt"

People are coloring easter eggs ahead to "hide" around the yard on easter morning.

It would be fun to do this but our house isn’t visible from the road

I guess we could do coloured chalk on the tree near the gate

[Ausmumof3]

58 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

😳

This is an amazing virus.

Hard to believe it’s just a natural bat virus. 

😳

 

It’s concerning.  I guess it’s not super clear whether they were reinfected, the virus was still low lying in the system or whether they just had virus bits in the nose etc. but weren’t actually infected I guess we’ll eventually know more once we have more data 

Edited March 28, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[vonfirmath]

3 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

It would be fun to do this but our house isn’t visible from the road

I guess we could do coloured chalk on the tree near the gate

 

I don't have any windows visible from the front. But our van is in front of the garage so I put the teddy bear in the window of the van.

If its not wet on easter I'm thinking about putting the eggs on sticks to put into the ground -- plus one up in the tree. Etc.

[Ausmumof3]

1 minute ago, vonfirmath said:

 

I don't have any windows visible from the front. But our van is in front of the garage so I put the teddy bear in the window of the van.

If its not wet on easter I'm thinking about putting the eggs on sticks to put into the ground -- plus one up in the tree. Etc.

There’s a farm down the road from is always makes a giant teddy bear out of hay bales at Christmas

im wondering if they’ll do it again 

[Ausmumof3]

Worldwide just passed 600,000

[Ausmumof3]

Stand out figures from the last day outside US/Aus (Because we are already talking about them)

83 from NZ

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/83-new-cases-covid-19-new-zealand

50 from Tokyo (highest in one day since it started)

 44 deaths in Germany (death rate has been low till now is this a bit of an escalation)

718 new cases and 16 new deaths in Canada

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/tracking-every-case-of-covid-19-in-canada-1.4852102

502 and 15 deaths in Brazil

 

[Ausmumof3]

“Don’t panic. This is almost certainly not reinfection. DNA amplification (PCR) tests could be falsely positive for #COVID19 if there’s lingering viral genetic material after the disease has subsided or from cross contamination in the lab. I’m not concerned” “#CoronaUpdate
- comment from a doctor on Twitter re the NPR article sounds reassuring 

Edited March 28, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[TracyP]

8 hours ago, square_25 said:

Germany's estimated CFR keeps inching up -- I'm now getting something like 0.7% for deaths/cases. Not a great sign. 

So does South Korea's, by the way -- it's at 1.5%. 

I really wish we'd do some randomization and get a better sense. 

 

Yeah, I agree with you about the need for randomization.

Yesterday I posted that I thought we could very well be looking at a CFR of 2%. I still could see this but I also am starting to question the modeling when it comes to infection rate. Is it really possible that only .02% of SK's population has been infected? Only .06% of Germany? I think everyone agrees that we are missing a lot of positive cases.

I mean 3% of Vo tested positive. 22% of the Diamond Princess (and I think they only tested symptomatic people - someone correct me if I'm wrong) tested positive. These aren't great examples, I know. But I think they both show that we could potentially be missing a huge number of cases. 

Let's just assume for a minute that 1% of SK has been infected - the CFR goes down to .03%.  And even 1% of SK being infected sounds crazy low when you hear the predictions of how fast this could spread. They had their first documented case over 10 weeks ago. 

Let me just say, I'm the last person who would want to downplay this disease. I just keep looking at this and thinking it could potentially go the opposite way. The CFR could be so much lower than we are thinking right now.

 

[Pen]

 5909 new cases and 919 new deaths in Italy. Highest number of new deaths since the beginning of the epidemic in Italy [source] [video]. 46 doctors have died to date (with 4 additional deaths today). 6414 health workers have tested positive [source] 

Worldometer.info   Bold added in re 46 doctors have died to date...

 

[Pen]

 

i

Edited March 28, 2020 by Pen

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, TracyP said:

 

Yeah, I agree with you about the need for randomization.

Yesterday I posted that I thought we could very well be looking at a CFR of 2%. I still could see this but I also am starting to question the modeling when it comes to infection rate. Is it really possible that only .02% of SK's population has been infected? Only .06% of Germany? I think everyone agrees that we are missing a lot of positive cases.

I mean 3% of Vo tested positive. 22% of the Diamond Princess (and I think they only tested symptomatic people - someone correct me if I'm wrong) tested positive. These aren't great examples, I know. But I think they both show that we could potentially be missing a huge number of cases. 

Let's just assume for a minute that 1% of SK has been infected - the CFR goes down to .03%.  And even 1% of SK being infected sounds crazy low when you hear the predictions of how fast this could spread. They had their first documented case over 10 weeks ago. 

Let me just say, I'm the last person who would want to downplay this disease. I just keep looking at this and thinking it could potentially go the opposite way. The CFR could be so much lower than we are thinking right now.

 

Diamond princess had everyone tested as far as I know.

[Ausmumof3]

Reading the first few pages of this thread is pretty surreal now.  Glad I happened to be around here and around people who are way more knowledgeable than me 

[TracyP]

1 minute ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Diamond princess had everyone tested as far as I know.

Thank you, that's good to know. Do you know if they were tested more than once if they tested negative?

[TracyP]

2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Reading the first few pages of this thread is pretty surreal now.  Glad I happened to be around here and around people who are way more knowledgeable than me 

Seriously! Do you remember the woman who was talking about the pneumonia outbreak in her community outside of Seattle? I was looking for that the other day - found it around page 20 iirc.. So surreal to read back through.

[Bootsie]

Although the number of deaths from COVID19 look high and scary, I know I am not accustomed to looking at death statistics on a daily basis.  To put them in perspective, 56 million people in the world die every year.  If the number of deaths in the world from COVID-19 increased 10-fold by the end of the year, that would be 99.5% of the world's deaths would be caused by other things.  

[Kassia]

29 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Reading the first few pages of this thread is pretty surreal now.  Glad I happened to be around here and around people who are way more knowledgeable than me 

 

I am so grateful for this thread.  It really helped me to be more prepared and also to share information with my family so they would be more prepared as well.  

[Ausmumof3]

44 minutes ago, TracyP said:

Thank you, that's good to know. Do you know if they were tested more than once if they tested negative?

I think there was a bit of a mix because toward the end they were just desperately trying to get everyone tested and off the ship.  So the ones returning to Aus were tested multiple times but others were released in Japan with just one test.  I know they did test asymptomatic people because at least one of the people from Australia they did an interview with had no symptoms and was really surprised to get a positive test.  So I think approximately 1/5 on board ship ended up with it?  

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, TracyP said:

 

Yeah, I agree with you about the need for randomization.

Yesterday I posted that I thought we could very well be looking at a CFR of 2%. I still could see this but I also am starting to question the modeling when it comes to infection rate. Is it really possible that only .02% of SK's population has been infected? Only .06% of Germany? I think everyone agrees that we are missing a lot of positive cases.

I mean 3% of Vo tested positive. 22% of the Diamond Princess (and I think they only tested symptomatic people - someone correct me if I'm wrong) tested positive. These aren't great examples, I know. But I think they both show that we could potentially be missing a huge number of cases. 

Let's just assume for a minute that 1% of SK has been infected - the CFR goes down to .03%.  And even 1% of SK being infected sounds crazy low when you hear the predictions of how fast this could spread. They had their first documented case over 10 weeks ago. 

Let me just say, I'm the last person who would want to downplay this disease. I just keep looking at this and thinking it could potentially go the opposite way. The CFR could be so much lower than we are thinking right now.

 

I think the closest thing I’ve seen along those lines to a thorough testing was that town in Italy where they tested the whole town and about 3pc tested positive.  

[Ausmumof3]

BREAKING: Spain reports 8,189 new cases of coronavirus and 832 new deaths since yesterday, raising total to 72,248 cases and 5,690 dead

[Ausmumof3]

4 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Yes, but exponential growth takes us to 10-fold in a few weeks, not “by the end of the year.” The reason that lots of places are coming out of exponential mode is likely the social distancing.

It’s like the famous lily pond problem:

”A lake has some lilies growing on it. Each day, twice as much of the surface of the pond is covered as was covered the previous day. The pond is completely covered with lilies on Day 30. On what day was exactly half of its surface covered?”

bno posted this today 

January 19: 100 cases - January 24: 1,000 cases - February 12: 50,000 cases - March 6: 100,000 cases - March 18: 200,000 cases - March 21: 300,000 cases - March 24: 400,000 cases - March 26: 500,000 cases - March 28: 600,000 cases

when i visualise the data it looks in my head like those fireworks within fireworks.  You know the ones that go up and explode and then mini fireworks explode from them.  Or tree branches.  Is fractals the word I’m looking for?  Where each new cluster puts out its own branches and they put out new branches.

I don’t know it’s late and I realise that sounds weird.  I just know that looking at the world as exponential growth is too simple it’s like lots of mini exponentials taking off from each exported case overseas each with their own weird things affecting growth rates and death rates and outcomes.

Edited March 28, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[TracyP]

26 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I don’t think this logic works. We would expect clusters, which means that some places would have MUCH higher percentages than others, especially given social distancing measures. 

I think the extremely sluggish US response will lead to much higher percentages infected here. But we’ll see.

Yes, I agree that some places would be much higher and others much lower within a country. Of course. But what are saying? Do you think that the number of cases is being accurately counted right now? Because I'm just saying that I think we could be *vastly* under counting cases, even in places like South Korea and Germany. 

[Ausmumof3]

Just now, square_25 said:

Hmmmm, Wikipedia shows Diamond Princess deaths at 11:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_cruise_ships

Anyone know if it’s right?

Bno has 10 and there’s at least one that died in Aus after returning (that they are counting as Aus so that sounds right)

[TracyP]

4 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I think we’re counting the cases more or less correctly in places with serious social distancing, widespread testing, and contact tracing. So I’d guess South Korea is not vastly undercounting — it might be off by a factor of 2 or 3, but not by a factor of 100. I see no reason to assume that it is off by that much — it does not make sense to generalize from the Diamond Princess or Vo.

I would guess the US is undercounting by more than that, though.

Yeah, a factor of 100 is probably way too much. But even at a factor of 2 the CFR goes down to < 1%

[TracyP]

15 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Probably? We're really groping in the dark here. We don't know the total deaths, we don't know the total cases, we don't know how it depends on healthcare system overwhelm. 

A CFR of around 1% would already be a pretty epic disaster if it affected, say, half of all people. A CFR of 0.1%, on the other hand, is what the flu comes out to, if I remember correctly, so seems a lot less scary (although, again, the fact that no one has any antibodies and we don't have a vaccine would still mean that this virus would kill way more people than the flu.) 

 

Please don't lecture me. The hospitalization rate is atrocious no matter the CFR. I understand the seriousness of the situation. Maybe we're talking past each other. I was *agreeing* with you, at least in part. I think the CFR could be way off, in either direction, when this is said and done. I am just geeking out with the numbers and quoted you cuz you seemed to be, too. My bad.

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, Bootsie said:

Although the number of deaths from COVID19 look high and scary, I know I am not accustomed to looking at death statistics on a daily basis.  To put them in perspective, 56 million people in the world die every year.  If the number of deaths in the world from COVID-19 increased 10-fold by the end of the year, that would be 99.5% of the world's deaths would be caused by other things.  

The number is not really what’s scary it’s the rate of change.