wuhan - coronavirus

[Arcadia]

2 hours ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I don't want anyone (in any country or any profession) to die from this but I do hope that he doesn't have a totally easy time of it.  I say that simply because I think it would be helpful if he really understood what his citizens are/will be going through. 

I don’t want him to have a hard time because it would deprive the laymen of NHS resources if he need treatment by healthcare staff instead of recovering at home.

When a MP (minister of parliament) in my country of origin needs hospitalization, so many people are mobilized, more healthcare staff and more security forces. I rather not have any MPs sick enough not to be able to recover at home.

[Acadie]

From our pediatrician--Sports analyst Ben Falk predicts the next COVID-19 hotspots, by studying CDC data on influenza-like illnesses. States with a third ILI peak this season comprised of older patients are the ones to watch: Georgia, Colorado, South Carolina, Tennessee, Florida and Pennsylvania.

https://cleaningtheglass.com/following-the-smoke/?utm_source=Active+patients+2.28.20+plus+old+OP+contacts&utm_campaign=6977f66caa-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_09_25_07_04_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1c10fe2971-6977f66caa-71383700

Predicting the next COVID 19 hot spots:  Sports analyst, Ben Falk, doesn’t have much sports to analyze so he has turned his attention to analyzing COVID 19. Click here to read the article. He has evaluated ILIs or influenza like illnesses (an ILI is defined as a fever greater than 100 degrees F and a cough and/or sore throat without a known cause other than influenza). 

1. Every year, the CDC reports weekly on the number of such illnesses (the FluNet system) so that medical personnel like us know the trends and can better prepare for what is coming. Click here for the CDC weekly report.
2. Analyzing data from many years, Falk notes that every flu season there is a double peak of activity.  It rises, falls, rises again and then falls for the season. 
3. This year, in certain geographic areas, there has been a third peak.  Falk, I think correctly, believes that, hidden in plain daylight, the third peak represents a rise in COVID 19 illnesses rather than influenza illnesses.  
4. In addition, every week for 10 years, (with only 2 exceptions) there has been a strong correlation between the peaks in children and the peaks in adults >65 except for this year. 
5. This year, that third peak is seen only in the elderly and not in children.  Once again, Falk believes this correlates with a COVID 19 outbreak which has hit the elderly disproportionately and relatively spared the children. 
6. If you follow the geographic areas with triple peaks where there is a mismatch between children and the elderly, you can pick up the signal of states where there is likely to be an upcoming spike in COVID 19 activity. 
7. In NYC, Yale epidemiologist Dan Weinberger has looked at similar ILI data Click here to access data. and has found the exact same pattern which has correlated with the spike in COVID 19 activity in that city. 
8. Florida doesn’t use the CDC FluNet system and has its own system of graphs.  This week, while the total ILI activity is amongst the lowest in the country and there is a drop in ILI activity in almost all areas, there is a significant rise along the South Florida coast from West Palm to Miami suggesting that there might be a surge of COVID 19 activity in that area in the weeks to come perhaps correlating with spring break mixing. Click here for reports. (Figure 6). 
9. Similarly, Pennsylvania has shown a large 3^rd peak over the past 2 weeks. Click here for PA flu data (Figure 4) suggesting that this state might also become a hot spot. 
10. The good news is that Ohio has seen a decrease in ILI activity over the past 2 weeks which suggests that we should not expect a huge surge in COVID 19 activity in the next few weeks. Click here for OH flu data.
11. That doesn’t mean we should let up on our vigilance and our distancing.  It simply means that our efforts at flattening the curve may be helping. 
12. This Falk analysis may not be accurate.  But it might.  And it is a great example of what makes our country so great.  We have the capability to use business tools of analysis to help us in our war against the virus that causes COVID 19.

 

Edited March 27, 2020 by Acadie

[Arcadia]

@Jenny in Florida

https://abc7news.com/entertainment/disneyland-walt-disney-world-to-remain-closed-until-further-notice/6056114/

“Walt Disney World and Disneyland Resort will remain closed "until further notice" amid the novel coronavirus outbreak, Disney announced Friday.

"While there is still much uncertainty with respect to the impacts of COVID-19, the safety and well-being of our guests and employees remains The Walt Disney Company's top priority," a company spokesperson said in a statement, adding that Disney will continue to pay hourly parks and resorts cast members through April 18.”

[SeaConquest]

Dr. Campbell took the Spanish doctor's video down and Reddit is reporting that it is fake.

[SeaConquest]

9 minutes ago, Plum said:

I had a feeling. I put it on my FB page and the link was wonky. 

Yet JAMALive is talking about ventilator rationing plans hospitals want to have in place just on case. Where people have scores, but they are careful to say no one is excluded. But in reality they are talking about the same thing, just in more delicate language. 
 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763953

 

Yes, the overall situation he described in the video re ventilator shortages and rationing is real. It's happening in Italy and in Spain, and will happen here too if we do not get more vents and if people do not stay inside. Thankfully, I just saw that Trump is invoking the Defense Production Act to get more vents. Finally. 

[Ausmumof3]

BNO:  Italy confirms a record 919 new deaths due to coronavirus and 5,959 new cases, raising total to 9,134 dead and 86,498 cases

[DoraBora]

President Trump on Friday invoked the Defense Production Act to order ventilators from General Motors needed to treat coronavirus patients, after initially declining to do so.

“Our negotiations with GM regarding its ability to supply ventilators have been productive, but our fight against the virus is too urgent to allow the give-and-take of the contracting process to continue to run its normal course” Trump said in a statement. “GM was wasting time.”

Trump had criticized GM and Ford earlier on Friday, accusing the automakers of failing to meet demand for ventilators.

“[GM] said they were going to give us 40,000 much needed Ventilators, ‘very quickly.’ Now they are saying it will only be 6000, in late April, and they want top dollar,” Trump wrote on Twitter. “General Motors MUST immediately open their stupidly abandoned Lordstown plant in Ohio, or some other plant, and START MAKING VENTILATORS, NOW!!!!!! FORD, GET GOING ON VENTILATORS, FAST!!!!!!”

[ElizabethB]

@gardenmom5 or anyone else in the know about Ventec, are they getting the workers they need?  Do we need to start getting the word out on social media with a link to the specific jobs and expertise needed?  

[Ausmumof3]

53 people aboard the Zaandam cruise ship off Panama are sick, including 2 who have tested positive for coronavirus. 4 older passengers have died, according to Holland America Line
 

feel so sorry for the crew trapped on that ship.  

[DoraBora]

Just now, Ausmumof3 said:

53 people aboard the Zaandam cruise ship off Panama are sick, including 2 who have tested positive for coronavirus. 4 older passengers have died, according to Holland America Line
 

feel so sorry for the crew trapped on that ship.  

Is this the ship that was denied entrance to Panama?  Are they planning to stay there?

[mommyoffive]

Highest daily death toll in Italy.  919

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/italy-coronavirus-deaths-rise-by-919-highest-daily-tally-since-start-of-outbreak/ar-BB11NMEU?ocid=spartanntp

[TCB]

14 minutes ago, DoraBora said:

President Trump on Friday invoked the Defense Production Act to order ventilators from General Motors needed to treat coronavirus patients, after initially declining to do so.

“Our negotiations with GM regarding its ability to supply ventilators have been productive, but our fight against the virus is too urgent to allow the give-and-take of the contracting process to continue to run its normal course” Trump said in a statement. “GM was wasting time.”

Trump had criticized GM and Ford earlier on Friday, accusing the automakers of failing to meet demand for ventilators.

“[GM] said they were going to give us 40,000 much needed Ventilators, ‘very quickly.’ Now they are saying it will only be 6000, in late April, and they want top dollar,” Trump wrote on Twitter. “General Motors MUST immediately open their stupidly abandoned Lordstown plant in Ohio, or some other plant, and START MAKING VENTILATORS, NOW!!!!!! FORD, GET GOING ON VENTILATORS, FAST!!!!!!”

I’m so glad!

[mommyoffive]

9 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

53 people aboard the Zaandam cruise ship off Panama are sick, including 2 who have tested positive for coronavirus. 4 older passengers have died, according to Holland America Line
 

feel so sorry for the crew trapped on that ship.  

I read that this afternoon.  I thought it said 138 were sick. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/four-dead-138-sick-on-holland-americas-ms-zaandam-cruise-in-limbo-amid-coronavirus-crisis/ar-BB11Oc2j?ocid=spartanntp

[BusyMom5]

I wonder if he realizes that you cant just start making ventilators overnight?  Its going to take a few weeks at least to get parts organized, people trained, evt. 

I live way off in the country.  Our hospital will probably get nothing extra.  There are 12 ICU beds with ventilators.  It serves about 4 counties worth of people.   There are going to be hard decisions made once it gets here.  Our population skews elderly, lots of pre-existing conditions.   We still dont have any official orders, but cities (think small towns) have started making their own.  In the last few weeks some elderly have chosen (or been ordered by their kids) to stay home.  Most have not.  Every time I've been out, the stores are just as full, no one in a masj or gloves (except me!).  No one was social distancing.  We are in an area where people just aren't taking it seriously.   Last week an 80+ year old woman in line behind me was getting hair dye, Cheetos and a can of air freshener.   There is a sense that these things are just happening in the city- bc the news focuses on cities.  I do hope that when the time comes, there will be help for rural areas- we are going to need it!

[Pen]

2 hours ago, square_25 said:

I grant all of those. It's just that deaths are still the hardest thing to miscount... everything else is much easier to tweak. (Want smaller positive numbers? Just don't test! But it's harder to hide when there's a flood of deaths in the ICU.) 

 

Yes. True.

But relying on deaths makes it also easy for CV19 “No big dealers” to declare that since we haven’t got thousands of deaths (yet) there is no problem, and to justify violating Physical Distancing guidelines and rules ...

[Pen]

2 hours ago, kdsuomi said:

I said that 20% of confirmed cases in my county are listed as fully recovered, but not 20,000. 

 

Thanks.  

Mind saying where? 

Or at least whether your county is one of the early ones obviously affected like King in Washington, or a more recent arrival on the community spread scene? 

[ElizabethB]

7 minutes ago, BusyMom5 said:

I wonder if he realizes that you cant just start making ventilators overnight?  Its going to take a few weeks at least to get parts organized, people trained, evt. 

I live way off in the country.  Our hospital will probably get nothing extra.  There are 12 ICU beds with ventilators.  It serves about 4 counties worth of people.   There are going to be hard decisions made once it gets here.  Our population skews elderly, lots of pre-existing conditions.   We still dont have any official orders, but cities (think small towns) have started making their own.  In the last few weeks some elderly have chosen (or been ordered by their kids) to stay home.  Most have not.  Every time I've been out, the stores are just as full, no one in a masj or gloves (except me!).  No one was social distancing.  We are in an area where people just aren't taking it seriously.   Last week an 80+ year old woman in line behind me was getting hair dye, Cheetos and a can of air freshener.   There is a sense that these things are just happening in the city- bc the news focuses on cities.  I do hope that when the time comes, there will be help for rural areas- we are going to need it!

I have read about people getting ventilators from large vet practices and universities that have nursing programs, also converting anesthesiologist machines to ventilators.  People in rural areas in my state may have to come to the big city, where they are getting ventilators from the university nursing program and probably some from the national stockpile, I'm not sure. The rural counties have very few IC beds, let alone ventilators.  However, currently, most of the rural counties have no cases.  

I would call your state health department and see if they are looking into that type of thing or what their plan is for the rural counties.

Edited March 27, 2020 by ElizabethB

[DoraBora]

11 minutes ago, BusyMom5 said:

I wonder if he realizes that you cant just start making ventilators overnight?  Its going to take a few weeks at least to get parts organized, people trained, evt. 

I live way off in the country.  Our hospital will probably get nothing extra.  There are 12 ICU beds with ventilators.  It serves about 4 counties worth of people.   There are going to be hard decisions made once it gets here.  Our population skews elderly, lots of pre-existing conditions.   We still dont have any official orders, but cities (think small towns) have started making their own.  In the last few weeks some elderly have chosen (or been ordered by their kids) to stay home.  Most have not.  Every time I've been out, the stores are just as full, no one in a masj or gloves (except me!).  No one was social distancing.  We are in an area where people just aren't taking it seriously.   Last week an 80+ year old woman in line behind me was getting hair dye, Cheetos and a can of air freshener.   There is a sense that these things are just happening in the city- bc the news focuses on cities.  I do hope that when the time comes, there will be help for rural areas- we are going to need it!

A little more than an hour after Trump’s first tweet, GM and Ventec announced they’ll build ventilators at the automaker’s parts plant in Kokomo, Indiana, which they’ve been working around-the-clock for a week to convert into a medical-device facility.

GM said in a statement that it will be “donating its resources at cost.” It’s also beginning to make surgical masks at a manufacturing facility in Warren, Michigan, north of its Detroit headquarters. Output will start next week, ramp up to 50,000 a day within two weeks and may eventually get to 100,000.

“This pandemic is unprecedented and so is the response, with incredible support from GM and their suppliers,” Chris Kiple, Ventec’s CEO, said in the statement.

[Ausmumof3]

14 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

I read that this afternoon.  I thought it said 138 were sick. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/four-dead-138-sick-on-holland-americas-ms-zaandam-cruise-in-limbo-amid-coronavirus-crisis/ar-BB11Oc2j?ocid=spartanntp

Yes I think I dropped the 100 off the front 

[Ausmumof3]

29 minutes ago, DoraBora said:

Is this the ship that was denied entrance to Panama?  Are they planning to stay there?

Yes.  Looks like they are moving those who aren’t sick to a separate ship and keeping people in their rooms once on board.

Edited March 27, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[Ausmumof3]

7 hours ago, Acadie said:

We saw in China, and more importantly with those repatriated from cruise ships, that people can test negative multiple times before testing positive.

And given how hard it is to get tested in most parts of the US, I'm guessing most who test negative here are not getting retested multiple times unless they need hospitalization. So when areas with community spread in the US report a relatively low percentage of positive cases out of the pool they've tested, I'm not reassured.

We don't know where any given region is on the curve, if we're not doing enough testing. Taking one negative test result at face value doesn't make sense given how many false negatives (or early negatives) have been documented all over the world. 

Adding this to the long list of problems with testing in the US.

I think the US tests have a higher accuracy level?   

[Ausmumof3]

WAPO:  Aide to D.C. Mayor Bowser dies of coronavirus, as officials warn people to stay home and away from others

[Ausmumof3]

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) - A global shortage of condoms is looming, the world's biggest producer said, after a coronavirus lockdown forced it to shut down production.

Malaysia's Karex Bhd makes one in every five condoms globally. It has not produced a single condom from its three Malaysian factories for more than a week due to a lockdown imposed by the government to halt the spread of the virus.

That's already a shortfall of 100 million condoms, normally marketed internationally by brands such as Durex, supplied to state healthcare systems such as Britain's NHS or distributed by aid programmes such as the UN Population Fund.

[mathnerd]

37 minutes ago, DoraBora said:

“[GM] said they were going to give us 40,000 much needed Ventilators, ‘very quickly.’ Now they are saying it will only be 6000, in late April, and they want top dollar,” Trump wrote on Twitter. “General Motors MUST immediately open their stupidly abandoned Lordstown plant in Ohio, or some other plant, and START MAKING VENTILATORS, NOW!!!!!! FORD, GET GOING ON VENTILATORS, FAST!!!!!!”

If this is indeed true and if GM was trying to negotiate a good deal for themselves, many americans will remember it when it comes time to shop for cars. Why would they look for top dollar at this time of crisis? A lot of their employees must have infections themselves at this point, so it is best to make the ventilators as fast as they can.

[matrips]

On 3/25/2020 at 6:08 PM, PrincessMommy said:

The TP thing is just so bizarre!  Are people eating it??!  I still have an unopened package of 12 but I ask my dh every time he's gone to the grocery story to check.  The shelves are always cleared out.  It makes no sense to me.

I’m wondering if it’s because families are now home.  Before, families used tp at work or school or out and about.  It shared the demand.  Now it’s the home supply everyday. 

[matrips]

4 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) - A global shortage of condoms is looming, the world's biggest producer said, after a coronavirus lockdown forced it to shut down production.

Malaysia's Karex Bhd makes one in every five condoms globally. It has not produced a single condom from its three Malaysian factories for more than a week due to a lockdown imposed by the government to halt the spread of the virus.

That's already a shortfall of 100 million condoms, normally marketed internationally by brands such as Durex, supplied to state healthcare systems such as Britain's NHS or distributed by aid programmes such as the UN Population Fund.

Oh my.  A baby boom coming?! 

[bolt.]

12 minutes ago, matrips said:

Oh my.  A baby boom coming?! 

A lack of contraception is much more significant than simply a baby boom.

Unchecked STD's, risky pregnancies, maternal and infant mortality, forced marriages, unwanted children, domestic violence, and family poverty are all very serious worldwide social repercussions of a shortage of condoms. It's really normal for people coming from a 'first world' perspective to underestimate the impact of unprotected sex (especially for women and girls) but that's just because we don't really remember life before contraception and 'safer' sex.

They really need to get that factory back online. It's a critical industry for the whole world.

Edited March 27, 2020 by bolt.

[Ausmumof3]

3 minutes ago, bolt. said:

A lack of contraception is much more significant than simply a baby boom.

Unchecked STD's, risky pregnancies, maternal and infant mortality, forced marriages, unwanted children, domestic violence, and family poverty are all very serious worldwide social repercussions of a shortage of condoms. It's really normal for people coming from a 'first world' perspective to underestimate the impact of unprotected sex (especially for women and girls) but that's just because we don't really remember life before contraception and 'safer' sex.

They really need to get that factory back online. It's a critical industry for the whole world.

Yes.  Even pregnancy at a time when hospital systems are under crazy pressure is not ideal aside from all the other issues.  I guess lockdowns may limit some casual intercourse but not all

[Acadie]

25 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I think the US tests have a higher accuracy level?   

 

No one knows for sure since some states have commercial and university labs doing their own tests, but this makes it sound like anecdotal reports from across the US suggest 15-25% false negatives.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2020/03/26/negative-coronavirus-test-result-doesnt-always-mean-you-arent-infected/

A Cleveland Clinic researcher said the test developed by his hospital system is highly sensitive and specific in the laboratory, returning no false-negative results. But he acknowledged those numbers won’t exactly represent how the test will perform in the real world. Another researcher said anecdotal reports peg the genetic coronavirus tests being used in the United States at about 85 percent sensitive. That means that for someone who has the virus, there’s a 15 percent chance they test negative. A critical-care blog, EMCrit, estimated that the genetic tests are about 75 percent sensitive and suggests that a single negative swab doesn’t rule out the disease.

[gardenmom5]

1 hour ago, ElizabethB said:

@gardenmom5 or anyone else in the know about Ventec, are they getting the workers they need?  Do we need to start getting the word out on social media with a link to the specific jobs and expertise needed?  

no idea if they are or not.  I sent the link to my son . . hint, hint . . . to get a temp. job, earn some money . . . .hint, hint (he's working on a MS in engineering. and he came from tech.)  but he doesn't live with me, and school starts next week (online classes only.)

[Arcadia]

37 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

If this is indeed true and if GM was trying to negotiate a good deal for themselves, many americans will remember it when it comes time to shop for cars. Why would they look for top dollar at this time of crisis? A lot of their employees must have infections themselves at this point, so it is best to make the ventilators as fast as they can.

“Those issues appeared to come to a head on Wednesday afternoon, when FEMA told the White House that it was premature to make a decision.

The $1.5 billion price tag comes to around $18,000 a ventilator.” https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/us/politics/coronavirus-ventilators-trump.html

[Arcadia]

@DoraBora@square_25@TCB@mathnerd@Pen

https://mobile.twitter.com/NYCMayor/status/1243493495714840576
 

“Mayor Bill de Blasio

 

@NYCMayor

 

I spoke with @elonmusk late last night. He’s donating hundreds of ventilators to New York City and State, including our public hospitals. We’re deeply grateful. We need every ventilator we can get our hands on these next few weeks to save lives.

4:02 AM · Mar 27, 2020

 

 

 

Elon Musk @elonmusk 7h

 

Replying to

@NYCMayor

You’re most welcome. Credit to the Tesla team. Will do our best to help in any way.

8:13 AM · Mar 27, 2020

 

 

 

 

 

 

Elon Musk @elonmusk 7h

 

Biggest value Tesla is providing is precise delivery of ventilators exactly to the ICU where & when they’re needed. There are many ventilators in warehouses, but stuck in logistics/routing/paperwork issues.
8:27 AM · Mar 27, 2020”

[Corraleno]

2 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Is that true? 

Musk bought 1,255 ventilators from China a few days ago and had them airlifted to the west coast. A lot are being distributed in CA, some went to Seattle, and I'm assuming he's now sending some to NYC.

[Katy]

1 hour ago, DoraBora said:

Is this the ship that was denied entrance to Panama?  Are they planning to stay there?

 

1 hour ago, mommyoffive said:

I read that this afternoon.  I thought it said 138 were sick. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/four-dead-138-sick-on-holland-americas-ms-zaandam-cruise-in-limbo-amid-coronavirus-crisis/ar-BB11Oc2j?ocid=spartanntp

 

I don't know for certain that it's the same ship, but friends of mine who work in health care in Florida posted multiple stories that a Holland America ship with multiple sick people was coming to Florida. None of them were happy. 

[Katy]

Has anyone mentioned the low cost ventilators developed?  MIT made this one, and made the plans open source.  It's about $100 in parts.  http://news.mit.edu/2020/ventilator-covid-deployment-open-source-low-cost-0326

And I saw a link that Rice University had developed one too, but I don't see the article just now.

[Arcadia]

37 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Is that true? 

Elon Musk tweeted this previously. No idea about the red tape with logistics 

“Yup, China had an oversupply, so we bought 1255 FDA-approved ResMed, Philips & Medtronic ventilators on Friday night & airshipped them to LA. If you want a free ventilator installed, please let us know!

7:37 PM · Mar 23, 2020” https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1242279396226011137

[Arcadia]

19 minutes ago, Katy said:

I don't know for certain that it's the same ship, but friends of mine who work in health care in Florida posted multiple stories that a Holland America ship with multiple sick people was coming to Florida. None of them were happy. 

@DoraBora@mommyoffive
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241559956.html
“Despite passenger deaths, positive COVID-19 tests and a possible week-long quarantine off the coast of Panama, the cruise ship Zaandam plans to transfer hundreds to a sister ship with little more than a temperature scan to determine if they’re healthy or infected with the coronavirus. 

Four passengers have died aboard the Zaandam as it awaits permission to transit the Panama Canal, and almost 150 people are sick with flu-like symptoms, according to a release from Seattle-based Holland America cruise line. It is owned by Miami-based Carnival Corp.

The captain announced the deaths to passengers and crew Friday afternoon, along with news that two passengers have tested positive for COVID-19. He also stated the company planned to evacuate hundreds of healthy passengers to a sister ship anchored nearby.

...

Earlier this week, Holland America Line sent a sister ship, the Rotterdam, to aid the Zaandam. The additional ship was originally meant to bring medical supplies, personnel and COVID-19 tests, but the company has since decided to transfer hundreds of passengers from the Zaandam to the Rotterdam in what it calls a “humanitarian mission.”

The company said it will only transfer healthy patients who show no symptoms, starting with people in interior cabins and those over the age of 70, but it won’t be testing the passengers it transfers, according to a company press release.This has alarmed crew members aboard the Rotterdam, who are terrified of importing the illness to a ship with more than 600 crew aboard.

“Is it humanitarian to do this to the Rotterdam crew, that is here to support their families? Has anyone paused to think what is Holland America Line going to tell their parents, children, when they get infected and eventually die? Are they not seeing the news?” said a crew member aboard the Rotterdam who asked for anonymity out of fear of retaliation. “Who cares!? After all is crew members who are sent to slaughter!!!!”

The crew member also provided the Miami Herald with a document circulated by the company to Rotterdam crew answering frequently asked questions about the transfer of passengers to their ship. Many of the questions focus on the possibility of bringing the coronavirus along with the passengers; the answers downplay the risk to crew members, noting that many of them recently took shore leave.”

[Pen]

1 hour ago, kdsuomi said:

I'm in CA, but not the Bay Area, so the first confirmed case wasn't as early as those places. Either our first or third (can't remember which) case was donated community spread, so it was certainly here before the first confirmed case. 

 

20% confirmed case recovery appears to be about correct right now for global figures also using Worldometer

there are around ~  600,000 confirmed cases and around ~ 130, 000 recovered

so in a neighborhood of 20% if I divided right

 

[DoraBora]

2 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Awesome :-). But I meant about the logistical issues. 

I guess we'll know when the dust settles.  😉

[Pen]

5 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

@DoraBora@mommyoffive
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241559956.html
“Despite passenger deaths, positive COVID-19 tests and a possible week-long quarantine off the coast of Panama, the cruise ship Zaandam plans to transfer hundreds to a sister ship with little more than a temperature scan to determine if they’re healthy or infected with the coronavirus. 

Four passengers have died aboard the Zaandam as it awaits permission to transit the Panama Canal, and almost 150 people are sick with flu-like symptoms, according to a release from Seattle-based Holland America cruise line. It is owned by Miami-based Carnival Corp.

The captain announced the deaths to passengers and crew Friday afternoon, along with news that two passengers have tested positive for COVID-19. He also stated the company planned to evacuate hundreds of healthy passengers to a sister ship anchored nearby.

...

Earlier this week, Holland America Line sent a sister ship, the Rotterdam, to aid the Zaandam. The additional ship was originally meant to bring medical supplies, personnel and COVID-19 tests, but the company has since decided to transfer hundreds of passengers from the Zaandam to the Rotterdam in what it calls a “humanitarian mission.”

The company said it will only transfer healthy patients who show no symptoms, starting with people in interior cabins and those over the age of 70, but it won’t be testing the passengers it transfers, according to a company press release.This has alarmed crew members aboard the Rotterdam, who are terrified of importing the illness to a ship with more than 600 crew aboard.

“Is it humanitarian to do this to the Rotterdam crew, that is here to support their families? Has anyone paused to think what is Holland America Line going to tell their parents, children, when they get infected and eventually die? Are they not seeing the news?” said a crew member aboard the Rotterdam who asked for anonymity out of fear of retaliation. “Who cares!? After all is crew members who are sent to slaughter!!!!”

The crew member also provided the Miami Herald with a document circulated by the company to Rotterdam crew answering frequently asked questions about the transfer of passengers to their ship. Many of the questions focus on the possibility of bringing the coronavirus along with the passengers; the answers downplay the risk to crew members, noting that many of them recently took shore leave.”

 

This seems like an insane thing to do.  

Are there any contagious disease health officers involved?

[DoraBora]

1 minute ago, square_25 said:

Probably sooner :-). Either the ventilators will arrive where needed or they will not. I think we won't know exactly what happened with GM negotiations for a good long while, if ever. (I am very glad the Act is being used, by the way.) 

The DPA is good news...  😊

I read that message between Elon Musk and Mayor De Blasio to mean that there are other vents that are held up in warehouses because of red tape.  Cuomo said today that they are storing them until they need them, down the road. 

You're likely right about the GM thing -- it will probably be he said/she said.  Whatever.

[mathnerd]

33 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Yeah, it really doesn't matter. I just want them to start making vents... 

I'm curious what's being held up... Elon Musk doesn't seem like the world's most reliable narrator.

I posted a long time ago on this thread (too lazy to search it up) that there is a Federal Stockpile of ventilators that they are saving for the important people (a.k.a. politicians and officials). This is a classified secret, so they will not release details. Various sources predict that number to be 10,000 ventilators. Various other sources say that part of this stockpile is in NY. And many common people believe that this is unfair and unjust because there are dying people and these need to be released during this crisis. Personally, I think that politicians are important to this country, but it is enough to reserve a few hundred for them and the rest should be sent to the ICU's which are desperately trying to rig up ventilators for the dying people.

I am guessing that Elon Musk is taking a swipe at people who don't want to part with the federal stockpile of ventilators.

ETA: Cuomo says that the ventilators that were delivered by the Federal government are accounted for and ready to be deployed and are not being held up in a storage unit.

Edited March 28, 2020 by mathnerd

[PrincessMommy]

I found Dr. Birx words to be very comforting:  I wish I could find just this 4 mins snippet somewhere else.  I missed the daily briefing today. 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/03/26/dr_birx_coronavirus_data_doesnt_match_the_doomsday_media_predictions_or_analysis.html

She speaks about the change from the Imperial College model and how the scientists are trying to work through all the numbers we have available.  Then she addresses ICU beds and Ventilators in NY.

"So these are the things we are looking at, because the predictions of the model don't match the reality on the ground in China, South Korea or Italy. We are five times the size of Italy. If we were Italy and did all those divisions, Italy should have close to 400,000 deaths. They are not close to achieving that."

***

"And the situation about ventilators. We are reassured in meeting with our colleagues in New York that there are still I.C.U. Beds remaining and still significant -- over 1,000 or 2,000 ventilators that have not been utilized."

[TCB]

1 hour ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

 

I see this, and I read about ideas for people sharing vents, and it sounds great in theory, but in reality COVID patients are requiring lots of fine tuning and very carefully adjusted vent settings.  I don't see how that works in real life.  

Does that thing deliver precise PEEP?  What happens when two people are sharing a vent, and one of them plugs their trach?  Does the other person just get twice as much air (which would kill them)? 

I hate to be a pessimist, and I appreciate that people are trying, and I think they should keep trying, but I just don't understand how these things work. 

Sharing a vent - If they are using pressure control the patient who's airway is patent should still only get the prescribed pressure and therefore the prescribed volume that the pressure produces so that shouldn't be an issue. If they are using volume control, which is unlikely in ARDS, then they would get more volume than they should. I think the difficulty with sharing is trying to have 2 patients whose ventilatory requirements are similar enough. They will need to be able to use PEEP and will need high levels of PEEP.

[Pen]

 

@kdsuomi

from worldometer.info

 

California

4,687

+672

94

+12

4,575

 

It looks like for California as a whole there are 18 cases considered to be recovered. 

4687 total — (94 dead + 4575 active) = 18 

And less than 1% recovered for state as whole?

[PrincessMommy]

3 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

I wish I could find this comforting, but I don't think she's right. There was a thread posted yesterday about this. 

To me, the reassurance doesn't compute -- because places that used strict social distancing measures are no longer seeing exponential growth doesn't mean that we aren't about to do the natural exponential growth experiment around here. Also, I don't believe China's numbers and South Korea and Italy are nowhere near done, so we really can't crow about their success yet. They are coping, that's the best we can say; they are coping. 

The ventilator reassurance seems really optimistic, too. The number of ICU beds used has been going up really rapidly around here -- I think it's jumped something like 50% from yesterday, to about 1500. So looking at the current numbers of vents isn't even that useful, because the number changes so much. The best one seems to be able to hope for is that the growth in ICU bed usage will match the pattern of the growth in the numbers of cases, and only go up by a factor of 1.2 every day. In that case, though, you still wind up with something like Governor Cuomo's estimates for the number of needed vents. 

So, technically what she said is true -- they are plenty of vents that are currently not being used. But I would guess that will not be true in a very small number of days. 

That is a good point.  I do not trust China's number either.   Italy and S. Korea as still in the midst, but I think that is partly what they mean by "projections".  Projections are based on what they have been seeing on the ground, not necessarily by what is over and done with.    There IS A lot of guessing going on... both for good and bad.    I'm even more irked that my state (Maryland) is not posting negative test results.  

I forget- are you in NY?    It's so hard to remember where "here" is for everyone.  IIRC about 100 pages back someone asked if we could state basically where we are located to help people to get an understanding of the perspective we're all seeing on the ground.  

 

 

[Arcadia]

😞

🇫🇷 http://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/she-just-had-a-cough-teenagers-coronavirus-death-shakes-france

“PARIS (AFP) - A week ago, 16-year-old Julie came down with a slight cough. On Wednesday (March 25), she became France's youngest Covid-19 fatality, shaking a nation hit by a spiralling health crisis.

...

"She had just a cough" that anyone might get as winter winds down, Julie's mother said. Initially, they treated it with cough syrup and steam inhalation treatments.

By last Saturday, however, Julie began feeling tightness in her lungs.

"Nothing major, she just had a hard time catching her breath," Sabine recalled.

Soon after, Julie was having coughing fits, so her mother took her to a doctor.

Diagnosing a respiratory impairment, the doctor called an ambulance, though it was fire-fighters, who often respond to emergency calls in France, who arrived.

Covered head to toe in protective coveralls, masks and gloves, "it was like The Twilight Zone", Sabine said, referring to an American science-fiction show from the 1960s.

The responders gave Julie a face mask to wear under an oxygen mask, and took her to the nearest hospital, at Longjumeau in the Essonne department, south of Paris.

She had a scan of her lungs, and was tested for Covid-19. While awaiting the results, Sabine went back home, and later called the hospital for news.

They told her the scan had shown some congestion in the lungs, she said, but "nothing serious".

Later that night, Julie was again fighting for breath, and an ambulance transferred her to the renowned Necker children's hospital in Paris, where two more coronavirus tests were carried out.

By Tuesday, she was admitted to intensive care, and when Sabine visited, she found her daughter anxious, able to talk but exhausted, and complaining that "my heart hurts".

The latest coronavirus tests proved negative.

"The door to her room opens, the nurses come in without wearing protective gowns, and the doctor gives me a thumbs-up sign telling me that everything is fine," Sabine said.

It was getting late, so she told her daughter goodnight and went home.

A few hours later, the hospital called: one of the Covid-19 tests was in fact positive, and Julie's condition had worsened to the point that doctors had to place a tube in her windpipe to keep her breathing.

"We can't believe it, there has to be a mistake. And why did this result come so much later?" Sabine recalled thinking.

For Julie's older sister Manon, the diagnosis was also a shock.

"From the beginning, they told us this virus doesn't affect young people. We believed it, just like everyone else," she said.

Shortly after midnight, the hospital called again, telling Sabine to come quickly.

"At that point, I panicked. Some words, you just know what they mean," Sabine said.

She and Manon rushed back to Paris, but Julie was dead when they arrived.

"Her skin was still warm," Sabine said.

There was little time for mourning, and this would be the last time Sabine would see her daughter. Julie's body had to be isolated immediately and her clothes and other personal items incinerated.

Sabine managed to hold on to her daughter's baptism necklace and a bracelet.

To limit contagion risks, Julie's casket will remain closed for the funeral, which only 10 people will be allowed to attend.

"It's unbearable," Sabine said of the non-stop news reports of France's 16-year-old coronavirus victim.

"It's horrible because I know they're talking about my daughter. We were supposed to have a normal life."”

[Pen]

 

 

 

 

Edited March 28, 2020 by Pen

[RootAnn]

At the beginning, they said it didn't pass from person to person, just from animals to people. Then, they said it wasn't an airborne virus. I also remember reading that it didn't survive on surfaces for very long. Should it be a shock that it affects young people when we were told for so long that it spared them? I say no.

This is why I don't believe the experts who say healthy people shouldn't wear masks. Probably bad of me, but I don't believe "the experts" yet because there just aren't any experts yet on this novel virus. We're all learning as we go.

[Pen]

12 minutes ago, Happymomof1 said:

I don't understand all of the percentage stats and all of that. However, yesterday in the US 253 people died and today ( so far) 402 have died.  This is according to CNN.

 

I’ve seen slightly different figures which may partly depend on what hour to what hour counts as a “day” — but same ballpark.