wuhan - coronavirus

[Arcadia]

2 minutes ago, StellaM said:

 

I know who Jessica votes for.

Or she is seeing things through rose tinted glasses. My niece (cousin’s daughter) and her husband are teachers in NSW, they might be working in private schools as they find working in Australia better than in Singapore.

[EKS]

14 minutes ago, gardenmom5 said:

I like the numbers from worldmeters coronavirus page - it takes into account what a countries population is to give how many cases/deaths per million of population.  re: Italy is: 133 *dead* per million, the US is 2.  (spain is 73.)   - those numbers were from early this morning.

Yes, the per million numbers are the only relevant ones.

[Terabith]

1 minute ago, EKS said:

Yes, the per million numbers are the only relevant ones.

That's really interesting.  I hadn't realized Switzerland, Luxembourg, Norway, and Iceland were so high, though I did know Iceland's are high because they're testing literally everyone.  

[Arcadia]

@Pen@Dicentra@ClemsonDana@TCB
https://cnaluxury.channelnewsasia.com/obsessions/lvmh-hand-sanitisers-12573926
“On a normal day, LVMH’s factory outside Orleans, France, churns out lavishly coloured bottles of perfume for its Christian Dior brand: Gold for J’Adore, deep purple for Poison, and candy pink for Miss Dior.

But in the early hours of Monday (March 16) morning, something a bit less polished rolled off the production line: The first plastic bottles of hand sanitiser destined to be used by doctors and nurses in Paris hospitals on the front line of the battle against coronavirus.

The project came together at lightning speed, a mere 72 hours after the French government issued a call to industry on Friday (March 13) to help fill gaps of key medical supplies as the spread of the virus accelerated. It showed how billionaire Bernard Arnault, who built LVMH into a luxury giant and France’s biggest company, can marshal resources quickly and draw upon informal yet powerful networks of influence.

The 71-year-old tycoon greenlighted the effort on Saturday night in a brief text message to LVMH’s general secretary Marc-Antoine Jamet, who had been liaising with health officials and staff internally all day as they raced to get a test batch approved.

It read simply: “Excellent!!”

LVMH is donating 12 tonnes of the hand sanitising gel to the 39 hospitals of the Paris system known as the APHP. It will also ramp up production with two additional production lines soon at the Givenchy factory in l’Oise and another for the Guerlain brand near Chartres.

In addition to perfumes, the Dior, Givenchy and Guerlain factories also make liquid soaps and moisturising creams for the brands. Those products are similar in viscosity to hand sanitising gel, so LVMH could use its usual filling machines, plastic bottles and pump dispensers. 

LVMH’s recipe for the gel was slightly different but it was quickly tested for efficacy and approved by the health minister. 

“LVMH will continue to honour this commitment as long as necessary,” said the company in a statement.

The move came as France entered shutdown on Monday (March 16) and as cases of coronavirus were doubling every 72 hours, with more than 22,300 people diagnosed and 1,100 dead as of Wednesday (March 25) morning. President Emmanuel Macron declared the country “at war”.

How did LVMH, a sprawling conglomerate with 76 companies in its portfolio, manage to do this all so quickly?

One reason is the decisiveness of Arnault. Speaking of his boss, Jamet said: “He bombards you with questions, and then goes off to think. It’s a family-owned company with a guy at the top who makes decisions very quickly.”

Another reason is cosmetics manufacturing is actually a close cousin to pharmacy, and the factory equipment could be quickly repurposed. Sanitising gel requires three main ingredients – purified water, ethanol and glycerine – all of which LVMH already had on hand.

In addition to perfumes, the Dior, Givenchy and Guerlain factories also make liquid soaps and moisturising creams for the brands. Those products are similar in viscosity to hand sanitising gel, so LVMH could use its usual filling machines, plastic bottles and pump dispensers. A tall metal tank at the Dior factory usually used to distil scent could be used to mix the ingredients, and a machine for filling up soap bottles drafted into packaging the gel.

LVMH will ramp up production with two additional production lines soon at the Givenchy factory in l’Oise and another for the Guerlain brand near Chartres. 

The last thing that helped LVMH move quickly is that in a crisis, France turns out to be a pretty small place. The cliche that the business and political elite cluster in the same Paris arrondissements, attend the same schools and socialise together exists for a reason.

“In the French system, we all know each other,” said Martin Hirsch, a medical doctor and high-ranking civil servant who runs the APHP. “It can be inconvenient in normal times, but it’s great in a crisis.”

LVMH’s Jamet first texted Hirsch last Saturday, offering to help make gel. The two had been friendly for years and first got to know each other from their days in L’Ecole Nationale d’Administration – the elite postgraduate institution. Hirsch was immediately receptive to the idea. Shortages of hand sanitiser had not yet cropped up in the hospitals that he oversaw but he knew that would not last long. “We were not completely safe with the gel stocks and suppliers we had, so we were actually looking into whether we could make it ourselves,” he recalled.

He sent his scientific adviser to the LVMH research facility that evening to check on whether their recipe would pass muster with regulators. The World Health Organization advises using an alcohol-based hand rub against coronavirus as an alternative when soap and water are not available. French regulators had issued guidelines but LVMH’s recipe was slightly different so it had to be tested for efficacy and approved by the health minister.

Again, LVMH’s network went into action. Jamet knew the health minister Olivier Veran from when the two had worked together on an industry charter to stop using runway models with very low body mass index. He called his office, and the ministry soon sent someone over to test the batches.

By 4am on Monday (March 16), the workers at the Dior perfume factory were set up and ready to go. The factory director Nicolas Ambolet surveyed his staffers as the production line began to run. “Our whole team is very proud to rise to this challenge together,” he said.

Other French companies have also risen to the occasion, mirroring what happened in China and Italy, which were hit by the outbreak weeks earlier. At the APHP network, BNP Paribas donated 500,000 masks to Paris hospitals, while Renault has loaned out 300 cars for medical personnel to use. L’Oreal said it was also retooling factories from its La Roche-Posay and Garnier brands to make millions of units of hand sanitiser for nursing homes and hospitals.”

[Arcadia]

🇬🇧🇮🇪  🇮🇹 🇺🇸 🇧🇷 🇰🇪 🇮🇳 🇦🇺 

https://cnaluxury.channelnewsasia.com/experiences/diageo-pledges-8-million-bottles-of-hand-sanitiser-12570370
“Diageo, maker of Johnnie Walker, Guinness and Smirnoff, today (Tuesday, March 24) pledged a donation of up to two million litres of alcohol to its manufacturing partners. This will enable the creation of more than eight million 250ml bottles of hand sanitisers, amid an acute shortage. The aim is to help protect frontline healthcare workers in the fight against COVID-19.

“Healthcare workers are at the forefront of fighting this pandemic and we are determined to do what we can to help protect them,” said Ivan Menezes, Chief Executive of Diageo. “This is the quickest and most effective way for us to meet the surging demand for hand sanitiser around the world.”

The global plan includes:

• The UK and the Republic of Ireland: 500,000 litres of GNS to be made available for national healthcare systems and workers across the UK and Ireland
• Italy: 100,000 litres of GNS to support the healthcare system and other national needs
• USA: 500,000 litres of GNS to be supplied to meet local community needs
• Brazil: Diageo’s Ypioca plant will produce 50,000 litres of spirit for the local healthcare system, in conjunction with the Ceara State Government
• Kenya: Diageo’s East Africa Breweries Ltd will enable production of 135,000 litres of sanitiser, prioritising vulnerable and at risk groups
• India: 500,000 litres of alcohol to supply to the sanitiser industry across 25 States, for use in national healthcare systems and for consumers
• Australia: Diageo’s Bundaberg Distilling Co. to produce 100,000 litres of ethanol for the Queensland Government, to be forwarded to hand sanitiser manufacturers”

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, gardenmom5 said:

each of these countries also have wildly different populations so that has a big impact.

I like the numbers from worldmeters coronavirus page - it takes into account what a countries population is to give how many cases/deaths per million of population.  re: Italy is: 133 *dead* per million, the US is 2.  (spain is 73.)   - those numbers were from early this morning.

Yes.  Although within countries often the outbreaks are concentrated in areas as well.

[mathnerd]

Don't know if this was posted before: Trader Joe's closed 5 locations today after employees in those stores tested positive for Covid-19 (east coast locations). They are asking customers who had been to those locations to get tested if they experience symptoms.

Edited March 26, 2020 by mathnerd

[Ausmumof3]

Bno:

Over the past 24 hours, the U.S. reported 14,024 new cases of coronavirus and 265 new deaths, raising the total to 68,347 cases and 1,037 dead

[Corraleno]

NY state is already at 19 deaths per million, and with deaths doubling every 2-3 days they may exceed 40 per million this weekend. If they were a separate country, by next week they would rank 3rd in the world (behind Italy and Spain) for number of deaths per million. Anyone who thinks Cuomo is overreacting doesn't understand the numbers he's dealing with.

If the current trajectory for the US continues, we will have the highest number of cases in the world by this weekend, and by the middle of next week we are likely to have more deaths than any country except Italy.

[Arcadia]

@TCB@square_25@Pen (really horrible NYC hospital scenario 😞 long news article)

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/covid-19-new-york-elmhurst-hospital-13-deaths-coronavirus-12577676

“NEW YORK: In several hours on Tuesday, Dr Ashley Bray performed chest compressions at Elmhurst Hospital Center on a woman in her 80s, a man in his 60s and a 38-year-old who reminded the doctor of her fiance. 

All had tested positive for the coronavirus and had gone into cardiac arrest. All eventually died.

Elmhurst, a 545-bed public hospital in Queens, has begun transferring patients not suffering from coronavirus to other facilities as it moves toward becoming one dedicated entirely to the outbreak. Doctors and nurses have struggled to make do with a few dozen ventilators. 

Calls over a loudspeaker of “Team 700”, the code for when a patient is on the verge of death, come several times a shift. Some have died inside the emergency room while waiting for a bed.

A refrigerated truck has been stationed outside to hold the bodies of the dead. Over the past 24 hours, New York City’s public hospital system said in a statement, 13 people at Elmhurst had died.

“It’s apocalyptic,” said Bray, 27, a general medicine resident at the hospital.

Across the city, which has become the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak in the United States, hospitals are beginning to confront the kind of harrowing surge in cases that has overwhelmed health care systems in China, Italy and other countries. 

On Wednesday morning, New York City reported 16,788 confirmed cases and 199 deaths.

...

Dr Mitchell Katz, the head of the Health and Hospitals Corp, which operates New York City’s public hospitals, said plans were underway to transform many areas of the Elmhurst hospital into intensive care units for extremely sick patients.

But New York’s hospitals may be about to lose their leeway for creativity in finding spaces.

All of the more than 1,800 intensive care units in New York City are expected to be full by Friday, according to a Federal Emergency Management Agency briefing obtained by The New York Times. Patients could stay for weeks, limiting space for newly sickened people.

Cuomo said on Wednesday that he had not seen the briefing. He said he hoped that officials could quickly add units by dipping into a growing supply of ventilators, the machines that some coronavirus patients need to breathe.

The federal government is sending a 1,000-bed hospital ship to New York, although it is not scheduled to arrive until mid-April. 

Officials have begun erecting four 250-bed hospitals at the Jacob K Javits Convention Center in Midtown Manhattan, which could be ready in a week. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday on Twitter that construction was ahead of schedule, but that could not be independently confirmed.

Officials have also discussed converting hotels and arenas into temporary medical facilities.

At least two city hospitals have filled up their morgues, and city officials anticipated the rest would reach capacity by the end of this week, according to the briefing. The city requested 85 refrigerated trailers from FEMA for mortuary services, along with staff, the briefing said.

A spokeswoman for the city’s office of the chief medical examiner said the briefing was inaccurate. “We have significant morgue capacity in our five citywide sites, and the ability to expand,” she said.

In interviews, doctors and nurses at hospitals across the city gave accounts of how they were being stretched toward a breaking point.

Workers at several hospitals, including the Jacobi Medical Center in the Bronx, said employees such as obstetrician-gynecologists and radiologists have been called to work in emergency wards.

At a branch of the Montefiore Medical Center, also in the Bronx, there have been one or two coronavirus-related deaths a day, or more, said Judy Sheridan-Gonzalez, a nurse. 

There are not always enough gurneys, so some patients sit in chairs. One patient on Sunday had been without a bed for 36 hours, she said.

At the Mount Sinai Health System, some hospital workers in Manhattan have posted photos on social media showing nurses using trash bags as protective gear. A system spokesman said she was not aware of that happening.

With ventilators in short supply, New York-Presbyterian Hospital, one of the city’s largest systems, has begun using one machine to help multiple patients at a time, a virtually unheard-of move, a spokeswoman said.

But officials have called Elmhurst among the hardest-hit hospitals in the city.

“Elmhurst is at the centre of this crisis, and it’s the No. 1 priority of our public hospital system right now,” the city’s public hospital system’s statement said. 

“The front-line staff are going above and beyond in this crisis, and we continue surging supplies and personnel to this critical facility to keep pace with the crisis.”

Elmhurst Hospital Center opened in 1832 and moved to its current Queens location in 1957, making it one of the oldest hospitals in New York City.

In the neighborhood it serves, Elmhurst, more than two-thirds of residents were born outside of the United States, the highest such rate in the city. It is a safety-net hospital, serving mainly low-income patients, including many who lack primary care doctors.

...”

[Arcadia]

9 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

Don't know if this was posted before: Trader Joe's closed 5 locations today after employees in those stores tested positive for Covid-19 (east coast locations). They are asking customers who had been to those locations to get tested if they experience symptoms.

https://www.traderjoes.com/announcement/trader-joes-stores-that-are-temporarily-closed-for-cleaning-related-to-covid19

“Millburn, NJ – Trader Joe’s on 187 Millburn Ave
Crew Members reporting symptoms related to COVID-19 were last present in the store on March 24, 2020. 

---

Florham Park, NJ – Trader Joe’s on 176 Columbia Turnpike
A Crew Member who tested positive for COVID-19 was last present in the store on March 23, 2020.

---

Elkridge, MD  – Trader Joe’s on 6610 Marie Curie Dr 
A Crew Member who is receiving medical attention for a suspected case of COVID-19 was last present in the store on March 23, 2020. 

---

NYC, NY – Trader Joe’s (Grocery Store) on 142 E 14th St & (Wine Store) on 138 E 14th St 
A Crew Member who tested positive for COVID-19 was last present in the store on March 22, 2020. 

---

 ***STORE REOPEN 3/26***Plainview, NY – Trader Joe’s on 425 S Oyster Bay Rd
A Crew Member who is receiving medical attention for a suspected case of COVID-19 was last present in the store on March 21, 2020.

---

NYC (SoHo), NY – Trader Joe’s on 233 Spring Street
Crew Members have tested positive for COVID-19; the latest date on which a Crew Member with a positive COVID-19 test was in the store is March 17, 2020.

---

NYC (Chelsea), NY – Trader Joe’s on 675 6th Ave
Crew Members have tested positive for COVID-19; the latest date on which a Crew Member with a positive COVID-19 test was in the store is March 17, 2020.”

[Shoeless]

So, I had an interesting conversation with my sister about COVID-19 tests.  She is an assistant dean at a medical school, and works closely with the hospitals in her state.  She previously did research on HIV.  There is currently a 6-7 day turn-around time for tests because there are not enough facilities that are capable of running the test.  The tests are run with live virus samples and the process of running them is similar to HIV testing. There are only so many labs available that have that level of certification to run samples and only so many lab techs with the right qualifications to do it.  It's not like running a strep test or an influenza test; there are a lot of safety standards that must be followed for highly contagious pathogens. Illinois sent out the call on Monday to all the medical schools and labs for anyone with the correct certifications that can help run tests to clear out the backlog. My sister has the certification, but she is in isolation because she was potentially exposed to COVID-19 through a co-worker.  So, my sister is going to be reading results and interpreting data at home while she completes her isolation. 

Right after I got off the phone with her, my cousin messaged all of us to say he was being deployed on that ship heading to NYC. 

*deep breath*

[Shoeless]

Just now, square_25 said:

I know that NY is running the tests in a semi-automated fashion somehow. I don't know much about it, but we're running 10,000+ tests a day. I guess most places don't have the technology, though? Perhaps NY labs could be used for other tests after the crisis here passes... sigh.... 

 

Maybe they have a different sort of test? I don't know.  I can ask her if she knows anything about the difference between Illinois' testing process and NYC.  Maybe since NYC has more people, they have more certified labs and techs? 

[gardenmom5]

59 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Yes.  Although within countries often the outbreaks are concentrated in areas as well.

for the US, they do break it down by state - but not smaller.  Other countries aren't broken down.

this site also breaks Canada down by province.   (this is the same one john's Hopkins is using - without the borders JH uses that makes theirs small.)

 

this one from UW allows you to scroll in in some areas and it will break down locations further.

 

[Shoeless]

Just now, square_25 said:

Almost certainly a different sort of test. I don't know any of the science, but here's one of many articles about it: 

https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/03/13/cuomo-fda-flexibility-will-allow-new-york-to-dramatically-expand-coronavirus-testing-1266926

They've tested something like 100,000 people in NYS. 

 

Maybe they'll soon expand FDA approval to other labs.  My sister said something about some of the labs in Illinois being willing to run tests, but lacking approval due to certification, (I admit that a lot of what she was explaining went waaaay over my head).  So maybe the FDA will expand approval to other labs to ramp up testing there. Until then, testing is slow going in Illinois. 

 

[Ali in OR]

In Oregon, until about a week ago we had only one lab doing tests for the whole state and their capacity was originally 40 tests per day. Supposedly some other hospitals in Portland have been coming online for testing, and we're supposed to have private testing "soon". A woman from our church was tested a week ago and was told it would take 7 days to get results. She called today because it's been 7 days and she was told "7-10 days". We're up to 266 cases in the whole state, but you can see why that number is so low--not enough testing. That number gives a warped picture of what may have been going on a week or more ago, but even then most people who think they have suspicious symptoms can't even get tested.

ETA: Oregon Health Authority reports that as of today Oregon has run 5742 tests total.

Edited March 26, 2020 by Ali in OR

[Slache]

Have we discussed this?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/25/coronavirus-patients-do-not-resucitate/

[Arcadia]

@Ausmumof3@StellaM@Pen
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-24/countries-are-starting-to-hoard-food-threatening-global-trade

“It’s not just grocery shoppers who are hoarding pantry staples. Some governments are moving to secure domestic food supplies during the conoravirus pandemic.

Kazakhstan, one of the world’s biggest shippers of wheat flour, banned exports of that product along with others, including carrots, sugar and potatoes. Vietnam temporarily suspended new rice export contracts. Serbia has stopped the flow of its sunflower oil and other goods, while Russia is leaving the door open to shipment bans and said it’s assessing the situation weekly.

To be perfectly clear, there have been just a handful of moves and no sure signs that much more is on the horizon. Still, what’s been happening has raised a question: Is this the start of a wave of food nationalism that will further disrupt supply chains and trade flows?

“We’re starting to see this happening already -- and all we can see is that the lockdown is going to get worse,” said Tim Benton, research director in emerging risks at think tank Chatham House in London.

Though food supplies are ample, logistical hurdles are making it harder to get products where they need to be as the coronavirus unleashes unprecedented measures, panic buying and the threat of labor crunches.

...

As it is, many governments have employed extreme measures, setting curfews and limits on crowds or even on people venturing out for anything but to acquire essentials. That could spill over to food policy, said Ann Berg, an independent consultant and veteran agricultural trader who started her career at Louis Dreyfus Co. in 1974.

“You could see wartime rationing, price controls and domestic stockpiling,” she said.

Some nations are adding to their strategic reserves. China, the biggest rice grower and consumer, pledged to buy more than ever before from its domestic harvest, even though the government already holds massive stockpiles of rice and wheat, enough for one year of consumption.

Key wheat importers including Algeria and Turkey have also issued new tenders, and Morocco said a suspension on wheat-import duties would last through mid-June.

As governments take nationalistic approaches, they risk disrupting an international system that has become increasingly interconnected in recent decades.

Kazakhstan had already stopped exports of other food staples, like buckwheat and onions, before the move this week to cut off wheat-flour shipments. That latest action was a much bigger step, with the potential to affect companies around the world that rely on the supplies to make bread.

For some commodities, a handful of countries, or even fewer, make up the bulk of exportable supplies. Disruptions to those shipments would have major global ramifications. Take, for example, Russia, which has emerged as the world’s top wheat exporter and a key supplier to North Africa. Vietnam is the third-largest rice exporter, sending many of its cargoes to the Philippines.

“If governments are not working collectively and cooperatively to ensure there is a global supply, if they’re just putting their nations first, you can end up in a situation where things get worse,” said Benton of Chatham House.

He warned that frenzied shopping coupled with protectionist policies could eventually lead to higher food prices -- a cycle that could end up perpetuating itself.

“If you’re panic buying on the market for next year’s harvest, then prices will go up, and as prices go up, policy makers will panic more,” he said.

And higher grocery bills can have major ramifications. Bread costs have a long history of kick-starting unrest and political instability. During the food price spikes of 2011 and 2008, there were food riots in more than 30 nations across Africa, Asia and the Middle East.

“Without the food supply, societies just totally break,” Benton said.”

[Slache]

5 minutes ago, StellaM said:

Wow. That's frightening.

It's one thing having to triage cases; it's another thing having pressure put on families to sign DNR's.

I am extremely worried about the devaluing of (some - elderly, chronically ill, poor, black) lives that has been going on from almost the first minute of this outbreak, and how it will carry over into societal attitudes once the outbreak is over. People are very ready to write off other people's lives. 

The  issue of risk to hospital workers is important, desperately so, but man, making families responsible for mitigating that risk through 'discussion' when a loved one is ill? Not OK. 

If it is deemed too risky to health workers to resucitate patients, that's a decision that must be made at the hospital level, and not a decision that is shoved onto families. That  pressure will not be equally applied to all families 😞 

We are really setting ourselves up atm for a resurgence in eugenics post-virus.

Agree 100%. And more thoughts than that. This is so big. I cried. First time crying over this thing. I'm ready to be done now. 

[Slache]

2 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

@Ausmumof3@StellaM@Pen
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-24/countries-are-starting-to-hoard-food-threatening-global-trade

“It’s not just grocery shoppers who are hoarding pantry staples. Some governments are moving to secure domestic food supplies during the conoravirus pandemic.

Kazakhstan, one of the world’s biggest shippers of wheat flour, banned exports of that product along with others, including carrots, sugar and potatoes. Vietnam temporarily suspended new rice export contracts. Serbia has stopped the flow of its sunflower oil and other goods, while Russia is leaving the door open to shipment bans and said it’s assessing the situation weekly.

To be perfectly clear, there have been just a handful of moves and no sure signs that much more is on the horizon. Still, what’s been happening has raised a question: Is this the start of a wave of food nationalism that will further disrupt supply chains and trade flows?

“We’re starting to see this happening already -- and all we can see is that the lockdown is going to get worse,” said Tim Benton, research director in emerging risks at think tank Chatham House in London.

Though food supplies are ample, logistical hurdles are making it harder to get products where they need to be as the coronavirus unleashes unprecedented measures, panic buying and the threat of labor crunches.

...

As it is, many governments have employed extreme measures, setting curfews and limits on crowds or even on people venturing out for anything but to acquire essentials. That could spill over to food policy, said Ann Berg, an independent consultant and veteran agricultural trader who started her career at Louis Dreyfus Co. in 1974.

“You could see wartime rationing, price controls and domestic stockpiling,” she said.

Some nations are adding to their strategic reserves. China, the biggest rice grower and consumer, pledged to buy more than ever before from its domestic harvest, even though the government already holds massive stockpiles of rice and wheat, enough for one year of consumption.

Key wheat importers including Algeria and Turkey have also issued new tenders, and Morocco said a suspension on wheat-import duties would last through mid-June.

As governments take nationalistic approaches, they risk disrupting an international system that has become increasingly interconnected in recent decades.

Kazakhstan had already stopped exports of other food staples, like buckwheat and onions, before the move this week to cut off wheat-flour shipments. That latest action was a much bigger step, with the potential to affect companies around the world that rely on the supplies to make bread.

For some commodities, a handful of countries, or even fewer, make up the bulk of exportable supplies. Disruptions to those shipments would have major global ramifications. Take, for example, Russia, which has emerged as the world’s top wheat exporter and a key supplier to North Africa. Vietnam is the third-largest rice exporter, sending many of its cargoes to the Philippines.

“If governments are not working collectively and cooperatively to ensure there is a global supply, if they’re just putting their nations first, you can end up in a situation where things get worse,” said Benton of Chatham House.

He warned that frenzied shopping coupled with protectionist policies could eventually lead to higher food prices -- a cycle that could end up perpetuating itself.

“If you’re panic buying on the market for next year’s harvest, then prices will go up, and as prices go up, policy makers will panic more,” he said.

And higher grocery bills can have major ramifications. Bread costs have a long history of kick-starting unrest and political instability. During the food price spikes of 2011 and 2008, there were food riots in more than 30 nations across Africa, Asia and the Middle East.

“Without the food supply, societies just totally break,” Benton said.”

Disease in China's pigs and chickens. Locusts in Africa. These play a part as well.

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, Slache said:

Have we discussed this?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/25/coronavirus-patients-do-not-resucitate/

I read earlier but didn’t want to share yet because I’m still processing it myself.  I hope it doesn’t come to that.

[Ausmumof3]

57 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

@Ausmumof3@StellaM@Pen
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-24/countries-are-starting-to-hoard-food-threatening-global-trade

“It’s not just grocery shoppers who are hoarding pantry staples. Some governments are moving to secure domestic food supplies during the conoravirus pandemic.

Kazakhstan, one of the world’s biggest shippers of wheat flour, banned exports of that product along with others, including carrots, sugar and potatoes. Vietnam temporarily suspended new rice export contracts. Serbia has stopped the flow of its sunflower oil and other goods, while Russia is leaving the door open to shipment bans and said it’s assessing the situation weekly.

To be perfectly clear, there have been just a handful of moves and no sure signs that much more is on the horizon. Still, what’s been happening has raised a question: Is this the start of a wave of food nationalism that will further disrupt supply chains and trade flows?

“We’re starting to see this happening already -- and all we can see is that the lockdown is going to get worse,” said Tim Benton, research director in emerging risks at think tank Chatham House in London.

Though food supplies are ample, logistical hurdles are making it harder to get products where they need to be as the coronavirus unleashes unprecedented measures, panic buying and the threat of labor crunches.

...

As it is, many governments have employed extreme measures, setting curfews and limits on crowds or even on people venturing out for anything but to acquire essentials. That could spill over to food policy, said Ann Berg, an independent consultant and veteran agricultural trader who started her career at Louis Dreyfus Co. in 1974.

“You could see wartime rationing, price controls and domestic stockpiling,” she said.

Some nations are adding to their strategic reserves. China, the biggest rice grower and consumer, pledged to buy more than ever before from its domestic harvest, even though the government already holds massive stockpiles of rice and wheat, enough for one year of consumption.

Key wheat importers including Algeria and Turkey have also issued new tenders, and Morocco said a suspension on wheat-import duties would last through mid-June.

As governments take nationalistic approaches, they risk disrupting an international system that has become increasingly interconnected in recent decades.

Kazakhstan had already stopped exports of other food staples, like buckwheat and onions, before the move this week to cut off wheat-flour shipments. That latest action was a much bigger step, with the potential to affect companies around the world that rely on the supplies to make bread.

For some commodities, a handful of countries, or even fewer, make up the bulk of exportable supplies. Disruptions to those shipments would have major global ramifications. Take, for example, Russia, which has emerged as the world’s top wheat exporter and a key supplier to North Africa. Vietnam is the third-largest rice exporter, sending many of its cargoes to the Philippines.

“If governments are not working collectively and cooperatively to ensure there is a global supply, if they’re just putting their nations first, you can end up in a situation where things get worse,” said Benton of Chatham House.

He warned that frenzied shopping coupled with protectionist policies could eventually lead to higher food prices -- a cycle that could end up perpetuating itself.

“If you’re panic buying on the market for next year’s harvest, then prices will go up, and as prices go up, policy makers will panic more,” he said.

And higher grocery bills can have major ramifications. Bread costs have a long history of kick-starting unrest and political instability. During the food price spikes of 2011 and 2008, there were food riots in more than 30 nations across Africa, Asia and the Middle East.

“Without the food supply, societies just totally break,” Benton said.”

Concerning.  Price issues here will probably relate a lot to labour costs as well.  Although with more people unemployed more people may be willing to work in ag.

[Ausmumof3]

Alcohol limits for Australian bottle shops 

“These limits are in place to ensure everyone has access to the drinks they love, and we appreciate your understanding during this time," a statement from the company said.

Customers can still buy up to 18 bottles of wine, three casks, six bottles of spirits and three cases of beer, cider or premix.“

Given we can’t have mass gatherings, funerals, weddings, this seems like it should be sufficient 😆

[Ausmumof3]

Italy’s death over tested and confirmed rate is now over 10 percent.  We can assume there are probably widespread untested cases but that’s still kind of scary. Most likely today or tomorrow will pass China’s official number of cases unless there’s a drastic slow down.

[Carrie12345]

11 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

There should be quota exceptions for big families or remote people I think.  Like show your medicare card for big families or drivers license for rural 

If the supply doesn’t stabilize soon, I’d like to see this. I’m not sure how some of us in the US would prove it, except maybe with birth certificates?  Tax returns? Right now, it isn’t so much the limits that are difficult for my family, but the limits combined with items out of stock. If milk is out, 2 cans of evaporated milk aren’t going to make up for 2 gallons of fresh. Stuff like that.
I am really glad that we don’t have more pets right now!

I can do limits for a while or I can do shortages for a while. Combined, it’ll be a struggle soon. And my family isn’t nearly as large as some right now.

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1168386?__twitter_impression=true
 

another don’t read if you’re feeling fragile 

[Ausmumof3]

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN21C2F7?__twitter_impression=true
 

disinfecting the pyramids 

[freesia]

5 hours ago, square_25 said:

I know that NY is running the tests in a semi-automated fashion somehow. I don't know much about it, but we're running 10,000+ tests a day. I guess most places don't have the technology, though? Perhaps NY labs could be used for other tests after the crisis here passes... sigh.... 

Nevertheless, my ds has been waiting 10 days for his results in Western NY. They are likely prioritizing critical cases, but we aren't processing fast enough imo.

[Pawz4me]

59 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

I am really glad that we don’t have more pets right now!

 

I told DH yesterday that I'm glad we just have the little guy right now. He's an easy keeper.

[Slache]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Italy’s death over tested and confirmed rate is now over 10 percent.  We can assume there are probably widespread untested cases but that’s still kind of scary. Most likely today or tomorrow will pass China’s official number of cases unless there’s a drastic slow down.

I've watched this really closely and following what the people were saying in China and it was 10% in China, too. Always been 10%. I don't trust that Italy has the numbers under control because it's utter chaos there right now, but I believe they're being honest and the percentages should be about on point.

[Ausmumof3]

1 minute ago, Slache said:

I've watched this really closely and following what the people were saying in China and it was 10% in China, too. Always been 10%. I don't trust that Italy has the numbers under control because it's utter chaos there right now, but I believe they're being honest and the percentages should be about on point.

I don’t think they’re lying or anything I just don’t think they have the resources to test everyone.  And I don’t think everyone goes for testing.  However I did see the source text and there were a lot of people tested in at home isolation so they can’t only be testing critical cases.  The rates in Spain and uk are heading upward as well.  SARS ended up resolving at 10 percent.  We were under the impression it was less lethal than sars.  I pretty desperately hope that’s true.

[Slache]

6 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

1. I don’t think they’re lying or anything I just don’t think they have the resources to test everyone.  And I don’t think everyone goes for testing.  However I did see the source text and there were a lot of people tested in at home isolation so they can’t only be testing critical cases.  The rates in Spain and uk are heading upward as well.

2. SARS ended up resolving at 10 percent.  We were under the impression it was less lethal than sars.  I pretty desperately hope that’s true.

1. Agree 100%.

2. Puts on tinfoil hat. I think we knew it was 10%, but by the time we figured that out we had undetected cases across all 1st world countries and needed to avoid a mass panic. I mean we think it's 2% and people are hoarding, commiting suicide and all sorts of nonsense. I've said before that the problem is not the mortality rate, the problem is the R0. We're not talking 10% of a handful of cases, we're talking 10% of the entire world.

[TracyP]

7 minutes ago, square_25 said:

South Korea is not getting numbers like that, I believe. But over 1% does seem likely looking at the numbers :-(.  

I’m continuing to ignore numbers from China and Iran. I may as well produce my own statistics for my own country of Toiletlandia and analyze that, for all the use those made-up numbers will do me...

I agree. I'm thinking this might end up closer to the 2% death rate they started with. I suppose it will also depend if/how they count asymptomatic cases. When so many places are only testing those who show up at the hospital, yeah, it is probably going to look like a 10% death rate. 

[Ausmumof3]

http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_pagineAree_5351_32_file.pdf
 

this is the sources for the Italian stats.  I think it’s from yesterday.  But it does show a huge number of isolated at homecases. (  I think that’s what isolamento domiciliare means?).  So they definitely aren’t only testing hospitalised cases.  

they aren’t counting asymptomatic cases though.  China aren’t either but South Korea are.  I’ve also read though I can’t find the source that the test South Korea uses has a higher false positive rate.

 

[Bootsie]

  The stories that I am hearing of people going to multiple grocery stores, Walmarts, Costcos, pet stores, etc. and finding grocery shelves empty is alarming.  It sounds like many people are out and about going to multiple essential businesses.  For almost two weeks now, we have been on lockdown, with the pharmacy, the grocery store, and gas station in the town the only places open.  No restaurant takeout or deliver.  Even the small café area in the grocery store is closed.  But, there are not really any shortages--In fact supplies are stacked in the aisles.  This is 30 minutes from Italy--along the major supply chain route connecting northern Europe and Italy.  There are spotty things, like now bananas late Saturday afternoon, but that can happen late on the weekend anyway.  There aren't long lines in the stores either. 

[freesia]

52 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I’m sorry to hear that! It might also go faster closer to NYC. One of our babysitters got tested, so I could try to figure out how long it took her...

That's true.  He just heard that the test was negative. Yay! So now I need to drive and get him.

[TracyP]

3 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_pagineAree_5351_32_file.pdf
 

this is the sources for the Italian stats.  I think it’s from yesterday.  But it does show a huge number of isolated at homecases. (  I think that’s what isolamento domiciliare means?).  So they definitely aren’t only testing hospitalised cases.  

they aren’t counting asymptomatic cases though.  China aren’t either but South Korea are.  I’ve also read though I can’t find the source that the test South Korea uses has a higher false positive rate.

 

 

But how are they tracking those cases that are isolated at home? I assume they went to the hospital with symptoms, but were sent home to self isolate. Maybe I assume wrong? Are they testing everyone with symptoms in Italy?

[Ausmumof3]

Just now, square_25 said:

Looking at the Johns Hopkins data, the South Korean CFR is now about 1.4% :-(. Germany is up to 0.56%. It's really not encouraging.  

No the rates for everyone are increasing and are almost certain to increase at the end when people are still dying and their are no new infections.  Assuming we actually get to that point.  Ugh.  
now I need to find something happy to think about. 

 

[Ausmumof3]

The Age:  Victoria Police said up to 10 per cent of returning travellers who had been ordered to self-isolate were not at home when they visited on Thursday.

[DoraBora]

8 hours ago, Corraleno said:

NY state is already at 19 deaths per million, and with deaths doubling every 2-3 days they may exceed 40 per million this weekend. If they were a separate country, by next week they would rank 3rd in the world (behind Italy and Spain) for number of deaths per million. Anyone who thinks Cuomo is overreacting doesn't understand the numbers he's dealing with.

If the current trajectory for the US continues, we will have the highest number of cases in the world by this weekend, and by the middle of next week we are likely to have more deaths than any country except Italy.

Yeah, I don't think Gov Cuomo is overrreacting at all in his push to expand hospital beds, source more PPE, and plead, cajole, and "threaten" New Yorkers to get them to take this thing seriously and stay home.  The stay-at-home order does appear to be helping. 

I do think he needs to stop repeating that he needs 30k ventilators today or tomorrow.  It's not accurate and is panic inducing.  

[DoraBora]

8 minutes ago, square_25 said:

He didn't say he needs them today or tomorrow. He says he is going to need them at the peak of the NY outbreak, which is projected to be in 2-3 weeks. As it takes some time to get things transported (and takes a long time to get things made!), he does not seem to be reacting in a disproportionate way. 

Of course, the projections could be off, but only a fool would ignore projections like this. He's being careful. I am deeply grateful to him for taking care of my city and state. 

I think Gov Cuomo is doing a good job under very trying circumstances. 

At yesterday's WH briefing, Dr. Birx (with our beloved Dr. Fauci standing right behind her) said 30k respirators would necessary if there is no mitigation (which there is) AND if/when NY experiences a second and third wave, again without mitigation.  She pointed out that such statements cause people to panic. 

You are correct that he hasn't used the word "today".  That was my takeaway, but that is not exactly what he has been saying.  He HAS repeatedly said he needs 30k ventilators.  He won't even need that many at the peak in 2-3 weeks.

[SKL]

8 hours ago, StellaM said:

 

Wow. That's frightening.

It's one thing having to triage cases; it's another thing having pressure put on families to sign DNR's.

I am extremely worried about the devaluing of (some - elderly, chronically ill, poor, black, disabled) lives that has been going on from almost the first minute of this outbreak, and how it will carry over into societal attitudes once the outbreak is over. People are very ready to write off other people's lives. 

The  issue of risk to hospital workers is important, desperately so, but man, making families responsible for mitigating that risk through 'discussion' when a loved one is ill? Not OK. 

If it is deemed too risky to health workers to resucitate patients, that's a decision that must be made at the hospital level, and not a decision that is shoved onto families. That  pressure will not be equally applied to all families 😞 

We are really setting ourselves up atm for a resurgence in eugenics post-virus.

 

DNR is something many people choose for themselves, but probably most people have not documented their decision.  It's not an easy thing to think about.  DNR decision by family is not an unusual one in any time.

I could honestly see it being appropriate if the patient's quality of life has no hope of really being returned, as is the case for many of the highest risk people presently.  I remember my grandmother telling me how much she wanted to die.  Not long afterwards, she did die, and I heard that high pain killer dosage was probably part of that - requested by her and approved by her son.

Even with severely ill kids, people make the DNR decision depending on the potential quality of life.  I don't think it is a symptom of lack of human caring at all.

[SKL]

I heard about another long-term care home / nursing home were many tested positive and it was presumed the others are all positive.

In cases where this spreads within care facilities, are they then using the care facility to "hospitalize" Coronavirus patients who don't need ICU?   It would seem like a logical decision.

[TracyP]

14 minutes ago, SKL said:

DNR is something many people choose for themselves, but probably most people have not documented their decision.  It's not an easy thing to think about.  DNR decision by family is not an unusual one in any time.

I could honestly see it being appropriate if the patient's quality of life has no hope of really being returned, as is the case for many of the highest risk people presently.  I remember my grandmother telling me how much she wanted to die.  Not long afterwards, she did die, and I heard that high pain killer dosage was probably part of that - requested by her and approved by her son.

Even with severely ill kids, people make the DNR decision depending on the potential quality of life.  I don't think it is a symptom of lack of human caring at all.

 

Not to mention, a quick google search says that only 10-20% of people for whom resuscitation is attempted live long enough to be discharged from the hospital. 

If it really is a significant risk to health care providers, it sounds like a very necessary conversation... 🙁

[Arcadia]

New Jersey https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/coronavirus/all-residents-of-virus-stricken-nj-nursing-home-now-assumed-to-be-infected/2261698/

“All of the residents of a coronavirus-stricken nursing home in Woodbridge are now presumed to have the virus, and they are being moved to another location for treatment, local government sources told News 4 on Wednesday.

New Jersey health officials said Tuesday that many of the residents of the St. Joseph's Senior Home had taken ill, and many of the staff were out sick as well. That meant there were just 3 nuns left to take care of nearly 100 people.

Of the 94 total residents, 24 are now positive for COVID-19 and the other 70 are "presumptive positive," government sources said Wednesday. They are now being moved from the Woodbridge facility to a CareOne home in Whippany, roughly 30 miles to the north.”

[J-rap]

4 minutes ago, SKL said:

I heard about another long-term care home / nursing home were many tested positive and it was presumed the others are all positive.

In cases where this spreads within care facilities, are they then using the care facility to "hospitalize" Coronavirus patients who don't need ICU?   It would seem like a logical decision.

We actually received word two days ago that the facility my mother is in -- a very lovely, highly-reputable facility -- has three residents now with coronavirus.  This was shocking news.  Apparently the three residents were all in the same wing.  They are being cared for in their own rooms there (each one in their own room), with a care team that only works with them, and no other residents.  All public spaces have been closed.  All residents are being kept in their rooms ~ meals are served to them in their rooms, etc.  We don't know the actual condition of the residents who have CV.   I don't know if they'd be transferred to a hospital at some point??  But for now, they're still in their rooms.

It sounds like the staff is doing everything they can do to follow health guidelines and keep everyone safe -- lots and lots of sterilizing everything, constantly.  Of course we know that in a matter of days, this could all snowball into a disaster.  Because if it had already spread to three people before they caught it, then who knows..   (And yes, we're very worried about my mother.)

 

[SKL]

6 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

New Jersey https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/coronavirus/all-residents-of-virus-stricken-nj-nursing-home-now-assumed-to-be-infected/2261698/

“All of the residents of a coronavirus-stricken nursing home in Woodbridge are now presumed to have the virus, and they are being moved to another location for treatment, local government sources told News 4 on Wednesday.

New Jersey health officials said Tuesday that many of the residents of the St. Joseph's Senior Home had taken ill, and many of the staff were out sick as well. That meant there were just 3 nuns left to take care of nearly 100 people.

Of the 94 total residents, 24 are now positive for COVID-19 and the other 70 are "presumptive positive," government sources said Wednesday. They are now being moved from the Woodbridge facility to a CareOne home in Whippany, roughly 30 miles to the north.”

I hope they can clean and re-purpose the facility for the crisis some way or other.

[Arcadia]

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/coronavirus/bay-area-lab-plans-to-distribute-millions-of-coronavirus-tests-after-creating-their-own/2261717/

“FDA Authorizes Bay Area Lab to Begin Testing for Coronavirus

After receiving emergency authorization from the FDA, Avellino Labs received its first batch of tests to process Monday morning.  The NBC Bay Area Investigate Unit was the only media outlet at the headquarters when those initial 33 samples arrived for processing.

Avellino’s new coronavirus test can be processed within four to seven hours, which would allow patients to be notified of their results within one day.

Lab Focused on Eye Diseases Pivots to Coronavirus

COVID-19 tests are a new direction for the lab, which, up until this week, only focused on making tests to diagnose eye diseases.

“We suspended testing of those,” said John Hong, who heads the legal department and human resources at Avellino Labs.  “We've pivoted completely to testing for coronavirus,” explaining that because both tests require genetic testing, the technology is similar.

The company began developing the COVID-19 test in January after employees at their Shanghai laboratory complained about a lack of tests in China. Soon after, Avellino Labs created their own test in California, which they then shipped abroad to their coworkers.

“We were thinking of that just being a resource internally,” Hong said. “Then, we quickly realized, almost immediately, that this is something that may be able to benefit everyone.”

Firefighters Trade Hoses for Nose Swabs

As the coronavirus began to spread across California, Hayward Fire Chief Garrett Contreras began searching for test supplies that his firefighters and paramedics could utilize to care for communities in the Bay Area.  It wasn’t long before the Chief connected with executives at Avellino Labs.

“One of our vendors...had called me and said that Chief Contreras was looking for the test,” said Scott Korney Chief Operating Officer at Avellino. “[Contreras] was thrilled that we had availability of testing.”

The partnership allowed Hayward to open its first drive-up and walk-up testing site Monday at Hayward Fire Station #7, 28270 Huntwood Avenue.

“Suppression, through isolation after testing, or SIT, as we call it, is an approach that has proven to be most effective in countries on the leading edge of this pandemic,” said Chief Garrett Contreras. 

His firefighters – armed with swabs, thermometers, and testing kits – are now on the front line of the pandemic.  In opening the testing site, the department declared that “sick people, first responders, and health-care workers with recent exposures to the novel coronavirus can be tested for infection.””

[TracyP]

1 minute ago, square_25 said:

Anyone posted this yet? It seems promising: 

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/relatively-stable-sars-cov-2-genome-is-good-news-for-a-vaccine-67319?utm_campaign=TS_DAILY NEWSLETTER_2020&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=85303568&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9LAZvfXifKk0wfGXzCh7pkkvPkyAMMjEzmpHNYoDvwRpfgPhrQxOd9NcNanPFw3mfbXuXOYoKMt_un23wosmNV3qjcgg&_hsmi=85303568

I don't think that's been posted, but Dr. Osterholm said the same in an interview. He said it is changing but only "cosmetically". Glad to see this!

[mom2scouts]

Today my power went out. Fortunately, it wasn't out for more than an hour, but we used my cell phone to start researching ways to kill zombies. I feel like we're living in an episode of The Walking Dead.  Everything is just so bizarre lately.