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1 hour ago, mom2scouts said:

I've lost track of this post and maybe someone has already posted about this, but ABC is reporting that Africa is seeing an "extremely rapid" rise in cases. I know somebody was asking why we weren't hearing about deaths in Africa and wondering if certain races might be more immune. On that line of thinking though, there's a family in NJ were 3 members have already died and 4 are in the hospital with 3 being in critical condition. They are an Italian-American family and it did make me wonder if genetics could have some impact on how people respond. It's an interesting thought, but I don't think anywhere in the world is being spared.

 

My guess is age.

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age

 

Just a guess

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3 hours ago, StellaM said:

 

This is why I am not finding the 'jump' that's apparently 'just new o/s arrivals before the borders close', reassuring. We know about the jump in o/s travellers and their contacts, because here, that's the only people they are testing. We have no idea what community transmission is like, because the sick in the community can't access testing. 

It's why I'm being pushed to err on the side of caution re work. Maybe there truly is no community transmission here, and everyone with Covid 19 symptoms has the flu (possible), but without testing, there is no way to have any accuarate numbers on that, and so one can only make a blind estimate of one's own risk. Under-estimating could be fatal. I am angry that there is insufficient information for at-risk populations in particular to make better, more accurate decisions.

They are testing others in my state. I personally know someone being tested. They haven’t traveled overseas

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7 minutes ago, mlktwins said:

Ya'll, I'm not saying this to IRL people, but I'm feeling a bit hopeless about all of this 😭!  The world is changed forever.  Our kids lives are changed forever.  It is breaking my heart.  And...when people we know IRL start getting it, 😭😭?!?!?!

So sorry, but I just needed to put it out somwhere.  I can't on FB because people are pissed that other people seemed to know so much and have apparently become MD's overnight.  That other people seems to know what is best for all of humanity!  I'm like just stay the %^&$ in your house so you don't spread it, get it, or die!!!  Why is this so hard for people to understand?!?!?

 

mama, I am not sure if this will help or not...

The Spanish Flu of 1918, which so many people compare this to, gave way to The Roaring Twenties

The Spanish Flu 1918 is the worst pandemic of "modern" times.  And despite our lack of resources vs todays resources......life happens.  It's true that tragedy happens to and Spanish Flu 1918 brought a lot of tragedy.  BUT, the country and the world came out.  That's going to happen again.  Life will continue.  Changes will happen, but they won't be apocalyptic.  

I hate to do comparisons, but on 9/11, 2900 died in a SINGLE DAY.  According to Worldometer, there are just over 200 deaths for this in the US, since the first of the year.  This flu season, over 100 CHILDREN, in the US have died, of he flu.

I don't say those things to try to say which is worse, or which is better or who should worry about what.  I am really only trying to bring some perspective.  This virus is super contagious.  And, it has a fatality rate that is worse than the flu, generally speaking.   But we, as a society, as a world, HAVE to balance this, with all the other things that go on in our world.  On average, around the world, over 2k people committed suicide................Yesterday.  (According to the WHO, 800,000 commit suicide every year.)

This thing is very contagious.  And it's 10 times more deadly than the flu.  But there's a lot more to worry about that we haven't had much focus on.  

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BTW, if you want to look at only US numbers...

according to stats placing suicide at about 48000 in 2018.....that means over 130 committed suicide...............................yesterday in the US.  

 

Please, everyone living in the US say........................holy smokes. (or, whatever other explictive  you prefer.)

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2 hours ago, regentrude said:

actually, the recommendation not to use Ibuprofen has been withdrawn by the WHO.

 

Really?  I never saw documentation that the WHO said anything about it at all, I just saw a bunch of memes with no sourcing CLAIMING the WHO had taken a position on it.

2 hours ago, Dotwithaperiod said:

 I’ve been seeing warnings around FB to not use elderberries if you think you have the virus, but can’t be tested. Anyone?

 

Early in this thread this was discussed, but it hasn't been studied with this virus.  Basically the conclusion was it HAD been shown to help flocks of chickens survive different strains of coronavirus but there was also concern that elderberries can increase cytokine storms and aren't appropriate for people with autoimmune or inflammatory conditions.  In reality it's all guesswork, because elderberries also decrease inflammation.

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3 hours ago, TCB said:

It seems to me, and I don’t know a ton about it, that it must have some other mechanism also with covid-19. The study from France said people were showing negative for the virus extremely early after being treated with chloroquine.

 

You're right.  One of the medical commentators for CBS news said it has antiviral and anti-inflammatory effects.

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6 hours ago, Arcadia said:

@Pen@J-rap@8FillTheHeart@square_25@Pawz4me@Arctic Mama
https://abc7news.com/health/live-trump-says-fda-to-approve-drugs-for-covid-19-treatment/6027491/

“CORONAVIRUS CRISIS: President Donald Trump said the FDA is approving two drugs -- the antimalarial hydroxychloroquine and antiviral drug Gilead's remdesivir -- for coronavirus treatment.”

 

Glad to hear that!  I hope they turn out to work well!

6 hours ago, Seasider too said:

 

Remember, Tylenol, not ibuprofen!

Praying for you!

 

Aside from ibuprofen caution apparently released (???), it might be best to allow fever to happen if not dangerously high.  ???

6 hours ago, happysmileylady said:

Actually I think the article is an opinion piece based on the Imperial College report that does presume no pharmaceutical interventions.  And that's because the very fact that this virus is new means that we don't know what may or may not treat it.  Drugs that are already in existence are already being used to treat this.  Studies and reviews on effectivness, safety, treatment protocols are of course just beginning, but many docs aren't waiting for that.  The medical information is changing and evolving as fast the the reports of deaths and cases are coming in.  This virus is very contagious and moving fast, but the truth is, our society and technology and medicine is really moving at like LIGHTNING SPEED on this.  There are already parmaceutical interventions being not just explored but used.   Today.  There are patients receiving the antivirals that the were mentioned above, somewhere in the world now.  And these are not the only pharmaceutical interventions being looked at, explored, and researched.  I think it's necessary to look at what could happen if nothing changes from a medical standpoint.  But I think that having that information is only important to help in decision making, and shouldn't be taken as some sort of dire prediction about our way of life ending.

 

 

 

👍

5 hours ago, prairiewindmomma said:

I think the other gap in understanding is in statistics.  Just because you have a higher mortality rate in a certain demographic doesn't mean that the other demographics are excused from getting the disease.  I think the NJ(?) cases still fit within the data we see from China and Italy. The young are just more likely to pull out of criticality because they have more "reserves" in their bodies.

 

But the younger are still an enormous issue as to overwhelming the medical system.  And we also don’t know if they may sometimes have long term problems. And even just being sick in hospital, maybe aiCU is still a big deal for most lives

 

1 hour ago, BeachGal said:

 

Cytokine storm appears to occur in people who have particular genetic mutations in about 10 or so proteins that influence the perforin gene. Most likely, the family has one or more of those mutations. All that is needed is one mutation.

https://www.uab.edu/reporter/know-more/publications/item/8909-here-s-a-playbook-for-stopping-deadly-cytokine-storm-syndrome

The US should be using the CytoSorb device

 

This is the type of thing I have tried to bring to attention of relevant government entities.  Letters, calls, etc.  I do think they pay attention. 

 

 

 

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Some worldometer.info news jumping out at me:

  • alert 5322 new cases and 427 new deaths in Italy. Italy's death toll surpasses China's, becoming the country with the highest number of coronavirus deaths in the world [source] [source]

    • Italian army trucks form a long line in the center of Bergamo to transport the coffins from the Bergamo cemetery to cremation sites in other regions, as morgues can't cope with more coronavirus deaths [source and video]
    • Obituaries in the local newspaper went from 1.5 pages (on Feb. 9) to 10 pages (on March 13)  [source and video]
  • alert 3308 new cases and 193 new deaths in Spain. [source]. A 37-year-old Spanish civil guard with no underlying health conditions has died of coronavirus yesterday. He had been admitted to the Quirón hospital in Alcorcón (Madrid) for several days before being admitted to the ICU a few days ago [source]
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1 hour ago, BeachGal said:

 

The US should be using the CytoSorb device to remove excess cytokines but, although it was invented in the US, it is not yet approved for use here in the US although it's been used since 2013 in the EU and is being used even in China and Italy now and soon Iran.

https://www.biospace.com/article/releases/cytosorbents-provides-update-on-cytosorb-and-covid-19-coronavirus-activities/

 

This is fantastic technology. Why aren't we using it? Do we have to let thousands or millions die first?

 

 

@BeachGal Does Randy Cron, MD, advocate for the use of CytoSorb? 

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20 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

BTW, if you want to look at only US numbers...

according to stats placing suicide at about 48000 in 2018.....that means over 130 committed suicide...............................yesterday in the US.  

 

Please, everyone living in the US say........................holy smokes. (or, whatever other explictive  you prefer.)

I fail to see how this is helpful. Of course it is a terrible and too common way to die. But it won’t infect me at the grocery store or put my community in overflowing hospitals. 

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  • 14 new cases and 1 new death in Argentina. The country will go into complete lockdown starting at midnight and until March 31. There will be no free movement on the streets, with prison terms for those who violate the measure. President Alberto Fernández to make the announcement soon [source] [source]

 

————

 

prison terms particularly  

I think we need something like that as well—for example for the  ———

 

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  • 160 new cases in Australia (NSW), including a 6-year-old child  [source[source]

 

————

I’ve been seeing more about children sick

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Switzerland looks like it’s heading into a steep graph climb

Germany starting to have more deaths

 

Africa starting into more confirmed cases (I suspect it was s little later both to get going as an illness there and to be able to do testing), and I expect Africa will be hit badly by CV19, not have some special immunity

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4 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I fail to see how this is helpful. Of course it is a terrible and too common way to die. But it won’t infect me at the grocery store or put my community in overflowing hospitals. 

you are right, suicide isn't going to infect you in the grocery store.

 

But, just like the suicide rate isn't going to forever alter our way of life (or even overwhelm our hospitals) it's also not likely to kill you unless you are at risk.  

AND......suicide rates of 130 per day in the US aren't ending our way of life.  I hope everyone can see that I am not trying to be callous but deal with real numbers here.......................as we try to save lives, we have to recognize that we are saving specific lives, while having dismissed similar number of lives before.  

We are bringing our world to a HALT.  Like.................STOPPING.  And it's all in an effort to keep our hospitals from being overwhelmed.  But if we recognize lives lost EVERY DAY to suicide......the calculation of "saving lives" actually is a smaller factor.  We have NEVER EVER gone to the effort of creating a world wide recession or DEPRESSION just to cut down suicide rates.  And if we are super honest with ourselves, all the effort we are going to to save lives from Covid 19 is going to result in MORE suicides and lives lost to other reasons.  

I am sure that people smarter than me have done the net calculations but I still wonder about the overall world wide net benefit.  

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@Pen @BeachGal

30 page pdf https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/pediatrics/early/2020/03/16/peds.2020-0702.full.pdf

“METHODS: Nationwide case series of 2143 pediatric patients with COVID-19 reported to the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention from January 16 to February 8, 2020 were included. The epidemic curves were constructed by key dates of disease onset and case diagnosis. Onset-to-diagnosis curves were constructed by fitting a log-normal distribution to data on both onset and diagnosis dates.

RESULTS: There were 731 (34.1%) laboratory-confirmed cases and 1412 (65.9%) suspected cases. The median age of all patients was 7 years (interquartile range: 2-13), and 1213 cases (56.6%) were boys. Over 90% of all patients were asymptomatic, mild, or moderate cases. The median time from illness onset to diagnoses was 2 days (range: 0 to 42 days). There was a rapid increase of disease at the early stage of the epidemic and then there was a gradual and steady decrease. Disease rapidly spread from Hubei Province to surrounding provinces over time. More children were infected in Hubei province than any other province.

CONCLUSIONS: Children at all ages appeared susceptible to COVID-19, and there was no significant gender difference. Although clinical manifestations of children’s COVID-19 cases were generally less severe than those of adults’ patients, young children, particularly infants, were vulnerable to infection. The distribution of children’s COVID-19 cases varied with time and space, and most of the cases concentrated in Hubei province and surrounding areas. Furthermore, this study provides strong evidence for human-to-human transmission.”

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28 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

you are right, suicide isn't going to infect you in the grocery store.

 

But, just like the suicide rate isn't going to forever alter our way of life (or even overwhelm our hospitals) it's also not likely to kill you unless you are at risk.  

AND......suicide rates of 130 per day in the US aren't ending our way of life.  I hope everyone can see that I am not trying to be callous but deal with real numbers here.......................as we try to save lives, we have to recognize that we are saving specific lives, while having dismissed similar number of lives before.  

We are bringing our world to a HALT.  Like.................STOPPING.  And it's all in an effort to keep our hospitals from being overwhelmed.  But if we recognize lives lost EVERY DAY to suicide......the calculation of "saving lives" actually is a smaller factor.  We have NEVER EVER gone to the effort of creating a world wide recession or DEPRESSION just to cut down suicide rates.  And if we are super honest with ourselves, all the effort we are going to to save lives from Covid 19 is going to result in MORE suicides and lives lost to other reasons.  

I am sure that people smarter than me have done the net calculations but I still wonder about the overall world wide net benefit.  

Just...no.

What you are suggesting is:

1. We should sacrifice the vulnerable for the sake of everyone else.

2. Suicide and mental health is tied only to social limiting from covid-19

3. Covid-19 isn't really going to kill hundreds of thousands to millions of people this year.

No. (And I say this having lost a close relative to suicide in the last few years.) You cannot equivocate these.

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Happysmileylady, if you haven't yet ready the study from Imperial College, please educate yourself and go do so.  It essentially projects that if we "do nothing", we will have 2.2 million deaths from covid-19 in the US this year. 

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WARNING

Very morbid question: 

 

 

 

 

If you die from covid, are you cremated immediately here in the Us?   No service, no nothing?   

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1 hour ago, mlktwins said:

Ya'll, I'm not saying this to IRL people, but I'm feeling a bit hopeless about all of this 😭!  The world is changed forever.  Our kids lives are changed forever.  It is breaking my heart.  And...when people we know IRL start getting it, 😭😭?!?!?!

So sorry, but I just needed to put it out somwhere.  I can't on FB because people are pissed that other people seemed to know so much and have apparently become MD's overnight.  That other people seems to know what is best for all of humanity!  I'm like just stay the %^&$ in your house so you don't spread it, get it, or die!!!  Why is this so hard for people to understand?!?!?

 

I don’t know. Just a couple of minutes ago a friend asked, in my state where all non-life-essential businesses are being shut down, “Anyone want to get together for a walk?”  No!

1 hour ago, Katy said:

 

Really?  I never saw documentation that the WHO said anything about it at all, I just saw a bunch of memes with no sourcing CLAIMING the WHO had taken a position on it.

 

There are a bunch of articles about it, not just memes.  Here’s the first I saw:  https://www.sciencealert.com/who-recommends-to-avoid-taking-ibuprofen-for-covid-19-symptoms

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I can answer the funeral question for my state.  I have had two friends lose parents in the last two weeks (other causes), and funerals were not allowed to be held because of the no gathering rule. 😞   It became an immediate family only at the funeral home thing....not a full church service with the entire family and friends.

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22 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

Just...no.

What you are suggesting is:

1. We should sacrifice the vulnerable for the sake of everyone else.

2. Suicide and mental health is tied only to social limiting from covid-19

3. Covid-19 isn't really going to kill hundreds of thousands to millions of people this year.

No. (And I say this having lost a close relative to suicide in the last few years.) You cannot equivocate these.

I’m sorry.  My post earlier this evening got this rolling ☹️.

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3 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

I can answer the funeral question for my state.  I have had two friends lose parents in the last two weeks (other causes), and funerals were not allowed to be held because of the no gathering rule. 😞   It became an immediate family only at the funeral home thing....not a full church service with the entire family and friends.

This.  Some places here are streaming the funerals so all can “attend”.

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1 hour ago, happysmileylady said:

you are right, suicide isn't going to infect you in the grocery store.

 

But, just like the suicide rate isn't going to forever alter our way of life (or even overwhelm our hospitals) it's also not likely to kill you unless you are at risk.  

AND......suicide rates of 130 per day in the US aren't ending our way of life.  I hope everyone can see that I am not trying to be callous but deal with real numbers here.......................as we try to save lives, we have to recognize that we are saving specific lives, while having dismissed similar number of lives before.  

We are bringing our world to a HALT.  Like.................STOPPING.  And it's all in an effort to keep our hospitals from being overwhelmed.  But if we recognize lives lost EVERY DAY to suicide......the calculation of "saving lives" actually is a smaller factor.  We have NEVER EVER gone to the effort of creating a world wide recession or DEPRESSION just to cut down suicide rates.  And if we are super honest with ourselves, all the effort we are going to to save lives from Covid 19 is going to result in MORE suicides and lives lost to other reasons.  

I am sure that people smarter than me have done the net calculations but I still wonder about the overall world wide net benefit.  

I think the rate of suicide is terrible. I'm just wondering when I read your posts what you think should be done about Covid-19? Sincere question. Are you thinking social isolation etc is not worth it, and what is the alternative?

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19 minutes ago, Garga said:

I don’t know. Just a couple of minutes ago a friend asked, in my state where all non-life-essential businesses are being shut down, “Anyone want to get together for a walk?”  No!

But why?   I've seen lots of suggestions about getting outside and going for a walk/hike.  Why couldn't you go for a walk and keep a safe distance (as long as they haven't been exposed)?  Obviously, I doubt they're talking about a mass gathering at the park (or I hope they aren't)... that would be different.  

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20 hours ago, kdsuomi said:

If anyone honestly thinks people will put up with extreme "social distancing" for up to 18 months, you're kidding yourself. People want their kids to go to school. People want jobs. People want to socialize. People want to do more than stay at home and only leave to go to the grocery store. Honestly, another solution had to be found or people will revolt, especially since so many already think the government is overreacting. 

This is coming from someone who is "higher" risk and has almost everyone in my immediate family in that same category. 

 

I think looking at pictures of college kids partying on Florida beaches it is pretty clear that a lot of people are going to blow off being restricted for even a few days.  

 

Alas the more and earlier people will stay home now aside from what is necessary, the shorter the total time this is likely to last and restrictions be needed 

personally I think we need much stronger criminal sanctions at this time , not some understanding of what people will or won’t put up with

If our emergency first responders, doctors, nurses, and others in similar positions are decimated by this, life as people were used to enjoying it in November, 2019 will not be possible.    (And I could include teachers in that too— parents may want their kids to go to school, but sick and dead teachers may not be able to teach their kids.  So what “people want” is rather inconsequential in the midst of such a pandemic.  People “want” all manner of things.  What can happen may not fit what “people want.”

So my 2 cents is that “people” will need to make changes.  Like it or not. 

 

Earlier changes and done by voluntary willingness to cooperate would be best.  The situation with the college kids in Florida doesn’t give me much hope on that score. 

 

But willy nilly changes shall happen .  

 

They can happen by choice.

They can happen by force of law.

They can happen by disaster.

Yet, to paraphrase and misquote Shakespeare, “if it be not now, it will be later; if it be not later, it will be now; still, it will come. The readiness is all.”

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When someone who works at the plant that makes HAND SANITIZER gets coronavirus, you don't feel so confident about sanitizer anymore.

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Message from my state today that people who lose jobs and are having trouble with food insecurity should apply for SNAP.  

 

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Message from my state, Patrick Allen, director of the Oregon Health Authority—and probably applicable to other places you all may live in:

 

An open letter to Oregon: You can stop coronavirus in Oregon

 
......

Social distancing measures are urgent and necessary to slow spread of COVID-19

These sweeping actions will create profound disruption and hardship in all our daily lives. The impact of these decisions will ripple through homes, schools, communities across Oregon – and through our state economy. These restrictions will demand unprecedented sacrifice from all of us. But they are urgent, necessary and justified in the face of the COVID-19 threat. Every one of us must help. We all have the power to stop COVID-19 and save the lives of people we care about.

..,

 No one is immune. There is no vaccine available to stop the virus. There is no treatment.

Most people who contract coronavirus (about 8 in 10) will experience mild symptoms, but during that time you could pass the virus on to others. Yet, Oregon’s hospitals do not have the capacity to treat the remaining 20 percent of patients who may need acute care if people all get sick at once.

We need to flatten the curve of new COVID-19 infections to protect our hospitals

If Oregon’s health care system is swamped by a sudden spike in cases, hospitals in communities across the state will not have enough beds and life-saving equipment, such as ventilators, to manage the crisis. Clinicians won’t be able to save everyone.

But there’s hope: The expanded ‘social distancing’ measures Governor Brown ordered today are designed to slow the spread of COVID-19 and blunt the looming spike in new cases. This is often called “flattening” the epidemiological curve – i.e., spread the number of cases out over time to protect hospital so they can serve the patients who need them.

[things in process of being worked out that citizens can help give time for by social distancing:]

  • Manage a surge in demand for medical care and quickly and dramatically expand capacity to treat more patients.
  • Maintain critical functions.
  • Locate and secure alternate sites to deliver medical care.
  • Secure needed medical supplies, like protective equipment for health care workers.

And we’re putting that plan into action, in partnership with hospitals across Oregon.

You can slow the spread of COVID-19

But our ultimate success in preventing a catastrophe will depend on each of us taking responsibility for these basic actions.

  • All of us need to wash our hands for 20 seconds or more frequently throughout the day. Try to avoid touching your face. Avoid close contact with others (keep a distance of 3-6 feet), especially people who are sick. Work from home if you can.
  • If you are 60 years of age or older, avoid groups of people, including small family gatherings. Stay in your home as much as possible. People your age and above are at greatest risk of being hospitalized. The same cautions apply for people who have other serious medical conditions (e.g., heart disease or diabetes). If you have a chronic medical condition, you are also at high risk, no matter what your age.
  • If you are sick, stay home and avoid contact with others. Talk to your health care provider if you want to be tested for COVID-19. Talk to your health care provider before you visit a clinic or hospital emergency department. It’s critical for all of us to make sure hospitals are seeing only those people who need hospital care.
  • If you are an employer, direct your employees to work from home if they can. Stagger schedules so fewer people are working together at one time. Send anyone showing symptoms of COVID-19 home.
  • If you are a civic leader: Support protective social distancing actions. Use your voice to encourage people in your community to take responsible steps to stem the spread of COVID-19 among your neighbors.

... 

 

We are all in this together

 

...

    it’s not too late to act. The measures we all take today – from Governor’s Brown’s urgent decisions to the actions each of us take in our personal lives – will determine how many people our hospitals can treat, how many lives they can save and how long the pandemic will last. We know that places around the world have adopted strong social distancing measures have curbed the pace of new infections. In places that have been slow to act, new cases surged. Lives were lost that could have been saved.

Oregonians have always worked together to overcome daunting challenges. We will do it again to stem the spread of the coronavirus and save lives in our state.

 
  Let's be friends!
       
   
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46 minutes ago, Garga said:

There are a bunch of articles about it, not just memes.  Here’s the first I saw:  https://www.sciencealert.com/who-recommends-to-avoid-taking-ibuprofen-for-covid-19-symptoms

 

Yes, but when I searched for it when the meme was going wild none of these were from major, recognizable publications with sources.  They were all clickbait, fake news types of sites.

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LA County, California official order document http://file.lacounty.gov/SDSInter/lac/1070029_COVID-19_SaferAtHome_HealthOfficerOrder_20200319_Signed.pdf

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/live-blog/coronavirus-china-reports-no-new-domestic-cases-first-time-nyc-n1163556/ncrd1164446#liveBlogHeader

“L.A. County announces 'safer at home' order

Los Angeles County officials on Thursday announced stricter guidelines for one of the most populated regions in the country. All residents are urged to stay home except for essential needs.

The "safer at home" order requires that all indoor malls, shopping centers, playgrounds and non-essential retail businesses close. It also prohibits gathering in enclosed spaces of more than 10 people at a time.

The directive goes into effect Thursday at midnight and will remain through April 19. Residents can leave their homes to visit grocery stores, pharmacies or doctors or for outdoor exercise. Food delivery and pick-up will remain available.

"This is not a request. This is an order," L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti said.”

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9 minutes ago, Katy said:

 

Yes, but when I searched for it when the meme was going wild none of these were from major, recognizable publications with sources.  They were all clickbait, fake news types of sites.

 

There was an advisory / warning from France. French Health minister Veran.  It was repudiated by WHO. 

I do not know who is right. 

I don’t currently have much confidence in WHO. 

Edited by Pen
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1 minute ago, Pen said:

 

There was an advisory / warning from France. French Health minister Valeran.  It was repudiated by WHO. 

I do not know who is right. 

I don’t currently have much confidence in WHO. 

 

It wasn't even a warning, it was a speculative tweet with no evidence that people took as gospel because of his job.  No one knows who is right yet.  But thanks for helping to clarify.

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😂

https://abc7news.com/18000-lbs-of-toilet-paper-found-in-stolen-truck/6028919/

“18,000 pounds of toilet paper found in stolen truck

An investigation is underway after a stolen 18-wheeler with nearly 18,000 pounds of commercial bathroom paper products was found in North Carolina Wednesday.

Deputies with the Guilford County Sheriff's Office first spotted the truck on Interstate 40 in Whitsett, which is outside of Greensboro.

After they followed the truck off the highway and pulled it over, deputies discovered that it was stolen.

The bathroom products were found inside.

This comes as many stores around the country are low on toilet paper. Americans have been stocking up as the nation deals with the novel coronavirus outbreak.

No arrests have been made in the case and an investigation is underway.”

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1 hour ago, prairiewindmomma said:

Happysmileylady, if you haven't yet ready the study from Imperial College, please educate yourself and go do so.  It essentially projects that if we "do nothing", we will have 2.2 million deaths from covid-19 in the US this year. 

I have read it.  In fact I have read it mutiple times.  I thought most of us here had?

It doesn't project "If we do nothing."  In fact, the Imperial College report uses a particular acronym....NPIs.   That specifically refers to "non pharmaceutical interventions."

 

This is an important assumption in terms of decision making because of course, there's always the possibility that a PI (pharmaceutical intervention) won't work, or that we could try multiple and they won't work.  

But the presumption that there will never be a pharmaceutical intervention is rather crazy, at least in terms of actual predictions of how this will go.  

Pharmaceutical interventions are ALREADY HAPPENING.  If you haven't read about that, I invite you to do so.  People are already trying to treat this with pharmaceutical interventions.

Which means that every prediction in the IC study is already altered.  

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5 minutes ago, Elfknitter.# said:

https://covid19.ca.gov/stay-home-except-for-essential-needs/

“The California State Public Health Officer and Director of the California Department of Public Health is ordering all individuals living in the State of California to stay home or at their place of residence except as needed to follow the federal critical infrastructure sectors.

Read the full Executive Order here (pdf).”

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2 hours ago, frogger said:

That doesn't explain the US family where 3 members have died, 3 are in critical condition, and another is hospitalized. Two of the dead where in their 50's and the other was their mother. I just thought it odd that so many people in one family all had such a severe reaction.

ETA: My state just announced the first death here.

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2 minutes ago, mom2scouts said:

That doesn't explain the US family where 3 members have died, 3 are in critical condition, and another is hospitalized. Two of the dead where in their 50's and the other was their mother. I just thought it odd that so many people in one family all had such a severe reaction.

ETA: My state just announced the first death here.

 

 

I wasn't trying to explain the family (hard to generalize 1 families experience) but Africa in general has a much younger population. 

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48 minutes ago, TCB said:

I think the rate of suicide is terrible. I'm just wondering when I read your posts what you think should be done about Covid-19? Sincere question. Are you thinking social isolation etc is not worth it, and what is the alternative?

I think that we, as a people here, have to recognize that we already have an acceptable level of death.

And how willing are we to change that acceptable level before we destroy our world economy.  How many deaths will the coming recession/depression cause and are we willing to add that to the baseline suicide rate, in order to save people from corona virus?  If 1.5 million people die this year due to suicide (vs the 800k on average) is that worth saving 2 million from CV?

I am not suggesting that I have that answer.  I am saying that all the real policy makers and people at the WHO and CDC....these are things that they are really thinking about.  

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This crisis is happening right now. Our hospitals locally are either out or nearly out of PPE. The state national guard is out assembling hospital beds. These measures are needed now. Should PI work, great...but a huge number of people are going to be infected in just the next two weeks.

We don’t have enough Plaquenil right now to give prophylactically to every first responder, medical care worker, etc. We may have enough to treat those currently in ICU, but I am fairly sure we don’t have enough for those who will need it in the next four weeks. 
 

What do you think we should do? Sincerely.

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1 minute ago, happysmileylady said:

I think that we, as a people here, have to recognize that we already have an acceptable level of death.

And how willing are we to change that acceptable level before we destroy our world economy.  How many deaths will the coming recession/depression cause and are we willing to add that to the baseline suicide rate, in order to save people from corona virus?  If 1.5 million people die this year due to suicide (vs the 800k on average) is that worth saving 2 million from CV?

I am not suggesting that I have that answer.  I am saying that all the real policy makers and people at the WHO and CDC....these are things that they are really thinking about.  

So 0.5 million gain - seems like it would be.

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5 hours ago, 8FillTheHeart said:

For anyone curious, my granddaughter was diagnosed as basically having panic attacks. My dil is very anxious about it all (she is an AML survivor and ds has lupus and damaged lungs from PEs) I told her to put her kids on a media blackout and not talk in front of them. 

My 10 yr old has been anxious so we stopped all conversation in front of her 2 days ago. Just be careful to watch how these conversations are impacting your younger kids.

 

I am so glad that it wasn't Covid.   I am so sorry that this is so hard for her.   Yes, I would not let her young children watch any media on it.    I think because they know about it and their life might be so different now, you do have to talk about it some when they ask.   Which is hard.  I can't imagine how this stresses out children.   Sending some gentle hugs her way.   

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2 minutes ago, TCB said:

So 0.5 million gain - seems like it would be.

A half a million is 500k.  In a single year, net gain (you know, if we were working with actual numbers.)

A world wide recession/depression is going to result in more than 500k in this first year, you know that, right?  

 

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Just now, happysmileylady said:

A half a million is 500k.  In a single year, net gain (you know, if we were working with actual numbers.)

A world wide recession/depression is going to result in more than 500k in this first year, you know that, right?  

 

I have a hard time with all this because it is personal to me. I work in ICU. I am dreading what we may have to see. I can't help but think that anything we do to try and keep things manageable in any way is a good thing. I might feel differently if I knew that I would just be staying at home for the duration. It might seem less worth it to me. Who knows what affect the health system being over whelmed will have on the mental health of those who are working there. 

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8 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

This crisis is happening right now. Our hospitals locally are either out or nearly out of PPE. The state national guard is out assembling hospital beds. These measures are needed now. Should PI work, great...but a huge number of people are going to be infected in just the next two weeks.

We don’t have enough Plaquenil right now to give prophylactically to every first responder, medical care worker, etc. We may have enough to treat those currently in ICU, but I am fairly sure we don’t have enough for those who will need it in the next four weeks. 
 

What do you think we should do? Sincerely.

What do I think we should do?

recognize that as we try to save lives.......our actions will have consequences.

And, not panic when we are among the 80+ percent who will come thru with mild symptoms

And......stop sharing panic inducing stories that our lives will change forever.  Change will happen, but really, we aren't going to be living in Panem.  Walking Dead, Brave New World, that's NOT where we are.  But dang it, if you read some media, like the article I was responding do, it feels like some people want us to believe that Panem is coming.  

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2 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

What do I think we should do?

recognize that as we try to save lives.......our actions will have consequences.

And, not panic when we are among the 80+ percent who will come thru with mild symptoms

And......stop sharing panic inducing stories that our lives will change forever.  Change will happen, but really, we aren't going to be living in Panem.  Walking Dead, Brave New World, that's NOT where we are.  But dang it, if you read some media, like the article I was responding do, it feels like some people want us to believe that Panem is coming.  

Your posts are beyond offensive. I will have to find another way to keep up with the news and stats on this illness- which is what I thought was the whole point of this thread. 

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15 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

I think that we, as a people here, have to recognize that we already have an acceptable level of death.

And how willing are we to change that acceptable level before we destroy our world economy.  How many deaths will the coming recession/depression cause and are we willing to add that to the baseline suicide rate, in order to save people from corona virus?  If 1.5 million people die this year due to suicide (vs the 800k on average) is that worth saving 2 million from CV?

I am not suggesting that I have that answer.  I am saying that all the real policy makers and people at the WHO and CDC....these are things that they are really thinking about.  

Is that 800,000 for the whole world? Unchecked, COVID-19 is supposed to kill a lot more people than that. 

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3 minutes ago, TCB said:

I have a hard time with all this because it is personal to me. I work in ICU. I am dreading what we may have to see. I can't help but think that anything we do to try and keep things manageable in any way is a good thing. I might feel differently if I knew that I would just be staying at home for the duration. It might seem less worth it to me. Who knows what affect the health system being over whelmed will have on the mental health of those who are working there. 

Please don't misunderstand me.  I am not suggesting that people don't stay home.  Literally, excepting my DH going to work (and he went to work and came home, plus he works in a factory, not with the public) we didn't leave the house.  I didn't even step outside to get my mail, my box is next to the front door lol.

I am looking at long term and the idea that our lives are forever changed in super profound ways.  

Changes will happen.  I just don't think they are going to be as profound and long lasting as the article that I was responding to is predicting.  I think the author's opinion is incorrect.  

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